UK Decides Fate of Early Typhoon Jets: Scrapping for Parts Amidst Controversy

The UK government has officially declared the destiny of its aging fleet of 30 early production Typhoon jets, known as 'Tranche 1,' putting an end to speculation. Contrary to hopes of repurposing or deploying these jets, the government stands firm on scrapping them for parts. The systematic "Reduce to Produce" program aims to salvage usable components to bolster the spare inventory for the broader Typhoon fleet. This decision has sparked concerns about a potential gap in the country’s defense capability, with debates centering on whether some of these jets should be placed in a war reserve.

Despite suggestions to transfer the Typhoon Tranche 1 jets to Ukraine, logistical challenges and strategic limitations have led to the UK dismissing the idea. Experts highlight issues such as incompatibility with critical missiles, requiring US approval for exports, and challenges in Ukraine's dispersed airbases. The Royal Air Force (RAF) remains confident that the phased withdrawal of these early Typhoon jets will not pose operational challenges, emphasizing the complex considerations involved in supporting Ukraine's defense needs amid the ongoing conflict. 

Greek Military Advancement: US Greenlights Black Hawk Helicopters Amidst Diplomatic Shifts and Turkish Fighter Jet Challenges

The United States has given the green light for the transfer of a significant military package to Greece, including 35 UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters and additional military equipment, with a total value of $1.95 billion. The announcement from the US Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) on December 15 highlights the depth of strategic cooperation between the two nations. This move is particularly noteworthy as it unfolds against the backdrop of Greece's substantial commitment to bolster its defense capabilities.

The comprehensive deal includes UH-60 M-type (Black Hawk) helicopters along with a range of military armaments such as miniguns, machine guns, rockets, advanced electronic suits, training programs, and logistical support. Lockheed Martin's subsidiary, Sikorsky, will serve as the principal contractor for this significant military transaction.

Greece's Defense Minister, Nikos Dendias, had earlier indicated the nation's intent to increase defense spending by approximately $12.62 billion over the next four years. This commitment aligns with a broader strategy for military modernization, encompassing various procurement initiatives. These include the upgrading of 37 F-16 Block 50 aircraft, the acquisition of at least 20 F-35 fighter jets, and the purchase of 18 Rafale fighter jets from French aerospace giant Dassault Aviation.

The recent agreement for the transfer of UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters signifies a crucial step in Greece's efforts to enhance its military capabilities. The inclusion of advanced electronic suits and cutting-edge training programs underscores the nation's commitment to keeping pace with evolving defense technologies.

In a historic move on December 14, Greece and Turkey, longtime adversaries, announced their intention to rebuild their relationship. The two NATO partners outlined plans to strengthen trade volumes, address longstanding issues in the Aegean Sea, foster good neighborly relations, and explore military confidence-building measures. However, despite this diplomatic thaw, Greece's pursuit of advanced military capabilities continues, as evidenced by the approval of the Black Hawk helicopter deal.

On the other hand, Turkey faces challenges in its quest for F-16 fighter jets from the United States. The prolonged procedure for acquiring F-16 aircraft has led to frustration within the Erdogan administration. Turkey's urgent need for upgraded F-16s, both for practical and strategic reasons, is underscored by the aging state of its current fleet. The procurement of F-16s becomes crucial, especially given the unavailability of F-35 stealth fighters following US sanctions in 2019.

The intricacies of the F-16 acquisition process have prompted Turkey to explore alternatives, including talks with European states for Eurofighter Typhoon jets. Despite facing roadblocks, particularly with Germany's disapproval of the sale, Turkey remains determined to strengthen its air force. The geopolitical dynamics in the region and the delayed decision on F-16s have led to speculation that Ankara might consider turning to rivals Russia and China for its fighter jet requirements.

In summary, Greece's approval for the transfer of Black Hawk helicopters underlines its steadfast commitment to military modernization, while Turkey grapples with challenges in acquiring crucial F-16s from the United States, potentially reshaping the dynamics of military capabilities in the region.

Saudi Arabia Explores Rafale Fighter Jets Amid Eurofighter Typhoon Setback

Saudi Arabia is engaged in negotiations with French aircraft manufacturer Dassault Aviation to procure the Rafale fighter jet, following challenges in acquiring the Eurofighter Typhoon from Germany. If the deal materializes, Saudi Arabia will bolster its air force with a diverse fleet, including the Rafale, Boeing F-15 SA, and Eurofighter Typhoons, posing a setback to the UK's BAE Systems.

Dassault Aviation's CEO, Eric Trappier, confirmed ongoing negotiations, marking a significant departure as Saudi Arabia traditionally sourced its war jets from the US and the UK. The move comes after Germany, part of the Eurofighter consortium, blocked the sale of Typhoon to Saudi Arabia, citing human rights concerns.

The potential Rafale deal would position Saudi Arabia among the select few air forces operating a varied range of warplanes. The shift may impact BAE Systems' business, given Saudi Arabia's historical association with the UK defense contractor.

This development underscores the geopolitical complexities influencing defense deals and highlights the Rafale's rising export profile, securing its position in the Middle East fighter jet market. As Saudi Arabia navigates its modernization efforts, the outcome of these negotiations will shape the dynamics of the region's military capabilities.

Turkey's Fighter Jet Dilemma: Could JF-17 Block 3 be the Solution

 In the ever-evolving landscape of geopolitical tensions and defense strategies, Turkey finds itself at a crossroads in its pursuit of advanced fighter jets. Facing denials of F-16s from the United States and Eurofighter Typhoons from Germany, Turkey is now rumored to be considering the China-Pakistan co-developed JF-17 Block 3 as a potential alternative. This shift coincides with recent fighter jet acquisitions by its regional rival, Greece, further intensifying the complex dynamics in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Turkey's quest for F-16s from the United States and Eurofighter Typhoons from Germany has encountered diplomatic hurdles, contributing to the nation's exploration of alternative options. Germany's reluctance to fulfill Turkey's request and the United States' denial of F-16s have left Ankara seeking other partners to meet its defense needs.

On the other side of the Aegean, Greece has been actively fortifying its air force capabilities. Recent acquisitions of F-16V Viper fighter jets from the United States and Dassault Rafale jets from France underscore Greece's commitment to modernizing its air fleet. The addition of these advanced aircraft enhances Greece's military posture and introduces cutting-edge technology to its arsenal.

Turkey, in response to Greece's strategic advancements, is exploring alternatives beyond traditional Western alliances. The potential consideration of the JF-17 Block 3 represents a departure from the established norms, signaling a willingness to diversify defense partnerships and explore options beyond the denied acquisitions.

The JF-17 Block 3, a collaborative effort between China and Pakistan, presents a cost-effective solution for Turkey, equipped with advanced avionics and weaponry. While not directly comparable to Western counterparts, the Block 3 variant is gaining attention for its capabilities, particularly in the context of Turkey's denied acquisitions and Greece's bolstered air force.

Turkey's potential shift towards the JF-17 Block 3 adds a layer of complexity to the geopolitical dynamics in the Eastern Mediterranean. As Turkey seeks alternative defense partners, the move may impact regional power balances and influence diplomatic relationships.

In addition to the JF-17 Block 3, Turkey has other noteworthy alternatives on its radar. The Russian-made Su-57 and Su-35, along with the Chinese J-10C, emerge as potential choices for Ankara. This consideration adds an intriguing dimension to the geopolitical landscape, as operating Russian or Chinese jets would mark a departure for a NATO member. It is worth noting that Turkey already operates the Russian S-400 Air Defense System, a move that led to its expulsion from the F-35 program.

Oman seeks Bid for Euro-fighter

The government of Oman has requested that BAE Systems submit a formal bid for the supply of Typhoon fighter aircraft. The move clarifies the Middle East nation’s continuing commitment to the program following delays in completing negotiations.

A spokeswoman for the U.K.-based defense company said it expected to complete negotiations by the end of the year, with deliveries of the first aircraft taking place 36 months later.

The request for proposals involves a squadron’s worth of Tranche 3 standard aircraft — about 12 airframes — a support package and training for the Omani air force.

Last month, Oman ordered a second batch of 12 F-16 Block 50’s from Lockheed Martin in a $600 million deal

The Omanis formally stated their intention to purchase the Eurofighter Typhoon in early 2010, and company executives said at the time that the deal could be ready for signing within months.

In a statement, BAE said it welcomed the release of the request for proposals, adding that the news underpins its long-standing defense and security relationship with the sultanate as a major equipment supplier.

The most recent major equipment sale was signed in 2007 to deliver three corvettes to the Omani navy in a deal valued at 400 million pounds.

The warships remain undelivered for technical reasons.

The first of the Khareef-class vessels should have been handed over in 2010 but have been delayed following the discovery of technical problems during sea trials.

The spokeswoman denied that the signing of the fighter deal between the two sides is dependent on the agreement of a get-well package for three corvettes.

The spokeswoman said the first of the corvettes is now scheduled to be handed over at the end of the second quarter.

The Omanis’ commitment to Typhoon follows recent competition losses for the fighter in Japan and Switzerland.

A decision by India on whether to select the Eurofighter aircraft or its French rival, Dassault Rafale, is imminent.

Earlier this month, BAE announced that talks with the Middle East’s first Typhoon customer, Saudi Arabia, over amendments to a deal to supply 72 fighters, were dragging on and would likely affect its 2011 earnings.

The original deal called for the first 24 aircraft to be delivered from the BAE production line in the U.K., with subsequent assembly in Saudi Arabia.

BAE and the Saudis announced a change of plan last February over where the final 42 aircraft would be built but are still haggling over the details.

Typhoon is a four-nation program involving the Germany, Italy, Spain and the U.K. So far, it has exported the aircraft to Austria and Saudi Arabia

EADS Chief: French Support of UAV ‘Encouraging’

HAMBURG, Germany — The French Defense Minister’s preference for a broad European scope to a planned Anglo-French medium-altitude long-altitude UAV was a positive sign for EADS, Chief Executive Louis Gallois of the European company said Jan. 17.

“You have seen Mr. Longuet was pushing for a program with other European countries, including Germany and Italy,” Gallois told journalists on the sidelines of a joint New Year’s press conference by EADS and Airbus, here.

“I think it’s encouraging for us to push the way we’re pushing,” Gallois said.

Defense Minister Gérard Longuet told the French aerospace press club Jan. 9 the Anglo-French project “should accept the construction of Europe.

“We can’t ignore countries with industrial capabilities. We’ll probably have an Anglo-French project which cannot avoid opening to other European partners,” Longuet said.

France would not develop the EADS Talarion Advanced UAV, Longuet said.

Gallois has urged the British and French governments to open up a proposed new MALE UAV to include EADS and other European partners, to avoid a repetition of the Eurofighter Typhoon versus Rafale dogfight which has divided European industry into an internecine battle for foreign sales.

“Talarion is a prototype, it’s not a final project,” Gallois said.

A top priority for EADS in its talks with the governments of its “home countries” was to preserve research and development capabilities through the launch of new program, made possible by cuts in some defense orders, Gallois said.

The Talarion UAV was a potential for such new program support, he said.

EADS is waiting for a decision from the German government for a go ahead with Talarion, a company spokesman said. EADS has some 160 engineers working on UAVs and is funding the work on company money. In the face of defense budget cuts in Europe, one of EADS’ priorities for 2012 was to increase export efforts and grow its “global footprint,” Gallois said.

The company was also in talks with home country governments, particularly Germany, on “existing and valid” military contracts, he said.

Germany has said it wants to cut the orders for Tiger attack and NH90 transport utility helicopters.

“We have to discuss with them,” Gallois said. “We have our interest to defend regarding workload in our facilities, profitability, future of the product, the balance between Germany and other countries “We include in that the possibility to be part of new programs which could be financed with part of the savings on quantities. It means we are open to discussion,” Gallois said.

“As always, we want to have that decision as quickly as possible as we don’t like uncertainty,” he said.

EADS and Finmeccanica signed a deal in December to team on UAV development, reflecting wider discontent in Italy and Germany over the Anglo-French defense accord reached on Nov. 2, 2010.

The planned Anglo-French MALE drone was one of the projects included in the bilateral treaty. BAE Systems and Dassault have formed a joint venture to bid for the joint UAV program.

India Hopes To Unveil Fighter Deal in 2 Weeks

NEW DELHI — India hopes to unveil within two weeks the winner of a $12-billion fighter jet deal for which France’s Dassault and the Eurofighter consortium are on a final short list, the air force said Jan. 17.

“Right now we have to do the selection for who is going to be the short-listed vendor,” Indian Air Force chief N.A.K. Browne said in New Delhi. “I am hopeful that in another two weeks time, we will be able to short list the name,” Browne told reporters on the sidelines of a military function, the Press Trust of India news agency reported.

The contract is one of the biggest under consideration in the global defense aviation industry at the moment.

The air force chief said final commercial negotiations would only start after India announced the lowest bidder.

Officials say “life-cycle” maintenance costs of each plane will determine the winner of the deal. The contract is for the outright purchase of 18 combat aircraft with another 108 to be built in India with options to acquire more.

India last April cut out U.S. bidders Boeing and Lockheed Martin as well as dropping Sweden’s Saab AB and the Russian makers of the MiG 35 from the race.

Such a large order attracted intense lobbying during visits to India last year by U.S. President Barack Obama, French President Nicolas Sarkozy, British Prime Minister David Cameron and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.

India, the biggest importer of military hardware among emerging nations, issued the request for proposals in 2007 and trials of aircraft from the six companies competing for the deal began a year later.

France Offers Heron for NATO Role

PARIS - France is offering the Heron TP as its contribution in kind to the NATO Alliance Ground Surveillance program, but technical and financial problems related to adapting the medium-altitude, long-endurance (MALE) UAV to French standards are holding up a deal with Dassault and Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI), industrial and political sources said.

DASSAULT IS NEGOTIATING with Israel Aerospace Industries on the contract for the Heron TP, which the French company would then deliver to French authorities. (Israel Aerospace Industries)

French Defense Minister Gerard Longuet told the French aerospace journalists' press club that the deal would be sealed by "the end of 2012."

Dassault is negotiating with IAI on the contract for the Heron TP, which the French company would then deliver to French authorities.That's later than expected by industry and parliamentary sources, who had thought the controversial contract would be signed before the presidential elections starting in April.

"There are many difficulties" on adapting the Heron TP, driving the cost above the 320 million euro ($408 million) budget, a parliamentary source said. An extra 150 million euros each for Dassault and Thales has been estimated for the modifications, the source said.

That would push the cost to 620 million euros, approaching the 700 million euro price tag of a previous Dassault offer of the Système de Drone MALE.

The Defense Ministry has asked Dassault to submit a technical-financial proposal on the Heron TP at the end of the month.

Among the key modifications are a satellite communications link and de-icing equipment, vital to plugging the UAV into the French - and NATO - network and fly in the northern European climate, the industry executive said.

Procurement officials are working hard to make progress on the UAV case, and one option might be to acquire the Heron TP with little or no modification, the executive said.

That might create problems of interoperability within NATO as Paris has offered the Heron TP as its asset contribution, instead of paying cash, toward maintaining the AGS system, the executive said.

Although 13 nations are acquiring AGS, based on the Northrop Grumman Global Hawk UAV, all 28 alliance members help maintain the system in return for access to AGS information.

"The AGS package is still being discussed at NATO," an alliance press officer said. "It is a topic to be discussed in the February meeting of defense ministers."

NATO has long sought to launch the AGS program, intended to provide commanders with a common operational picture.

France has had a troubled relationship with AGS, as Paris looked to gain a big technological role. The planned AGS system relies on five Global Hawks to provide radar and optical pictures of conditions the ground, and a network of transportable ground stations. The UAVs will be based at Sigonella airbase, Italy.

The choice of the Heron TP sparked resistance in the French Senate, which argued for acquisition of General Atomics' Reaper on grounds of cost, performance and interoperability with allied forces.

Longuet defended the choice of the Israeli UAV as "a compromise between capability and a long-term interest for industrial policy," he told the press club.

"We could have found a cheaper, more efficient, quicker solution, but at the [unacceptable] price of long-term dependence," he said.

Longuet denied that most of the contract value would go to IAI, saying that air vehicle is the smallest part of the system, with communication and observation more important.

The government argues that adapting the Heron TP to French needs will help develop competences among about 10 domestic companies in high-value areas, particularly in communications. Critics of the choice say there would be more work for French companies on the Reaper, pitched by EADS and General Atomics.

"No proposition was made by Reaper, which did not want to share, nor to adapt to French standards," Longuet said.

General Atomics did not make a formal offer because France did not send a letter of request, an industry executive said.

In 2010, the U.S. company signed a technical-assistance agreement with EADS detailing its offer, the executive said. The agreement listed modifications, including a communications link developed by French equipment firm Zodiac for the Harfang UAV flying in Afghanistan.

General Atomics also wrote in June 2011 to French Sens. Jacques Gautier and Daniel Reiner, setting out a $209 million offer for seven air vehicles, ground gear and service support.

The government, however, sees Dassault as holding a key position on a strategic roadmap intended to ensure interoperability in observation, surveillance, targeting and air power. That position stems from its work on the Rafale and Anglo-French cooperation, in the government's view.

Longuet said risk-reduction work on the Heron TP would start in 2013.

Dassault and DGA were unavailable for comment.

On a proposed new MALE UAV to be developed with Britain, Longuet urged a pan-European rather than a strictly bilateral approach.

The project "should accept the construction of Europe," he said. "We can't ignore countries with industrial capabilities. We'll probably have an Anglo-French project, which cannot avoid opening to other European partners."

On the Anglo-French cooperation treaty, Longuet said, a new date for a summit meeting would be set for before his birthday on Feb. 24.

"There are no doubts on defense," he said on relations between London and Paris.

EADS and Finmeccanica signed a deal in December to team on UAV development, reflecting wider discontent in Italy and Germany over the Anglo-French defense accord.

France would not develop the EADS Talarion Advanced UAV, Longuet said.

One way of bringing a European dimension into the planned Anglo-French MALE UAV would be to integrate it into the European combat aircraft environment, dominated by the Eurofighter Typhoon and Rafale aircraft, Longuet said.

"If we're intelligent, we should say, 'You British work on Eurofighter with Germany, Italy and Spain, and we'll work on Rafale,'" he said. "It would be good if the MALE UAV were to be compatible with one and the other."

OTHER PROGRAMS

France will buy the A330 Multi-Role Tanker Transport (MRTT) from Airbus "in 2013 for delivery four years later," Longuet said, leaving Boeing out in the cold.

Longuet dismissed previous official denials that Airbus had been chosen as "semantic elegance."

The U.S. Air Force's $35 billion pick of Boeing over Airbus for its KC-X tender effectively shut the door on a French tender.

France is expected to order five to seven A330 MRTT units in a first-batch order that could total 14.

Paris had been considering leasing part of Britain's A330 tanker fleet, but the Libyan air campaign led French authorities to decide they wanted their own aircraft.

On domestic consolidation, Thales would likely take a 10 percent to 20 percent stake in Nexter in exchange for handing over its TDA Armements mortar and munitions business to the land systems specialist, Longuet said.

Thales' holding would be significant but would not leave Nexter "dependent," he said.

Answering a question on anxiety at DCNS, where Thales is raising its stake in the naval company to 35 percent from 25 percent, Longuet said, "Thales is not the obligatory supplier of systems. DCNS can choose its systems."

DCNS makes naval combat management systems, and executives fear Thales will impose its own products, relegating the company to being a platform maker.

Nexter and DCNS had to forge European alliances to compete with companies from emerging economies such as Brazil, but first they had to consolidate their domestic base, Longuet said. Nexter had to look to German partners, as that was where the land sector was strong, he said.

Asked about the health of French defense companies, Longuet said, "Thales is a company necessarily in more peril because it is innovative on creative subjects on a world scale. It is more difficult. It has to take risks and goes through periods of uncertainty."

Regarding arms exports, the 2011 total for France would be around 6.5 billion euros, helped by an Indian contract for modernization of its Mirage 2000 fighters, Longuet said. That compared with 5.12 billion in 2010.

In October, procurement chief Laurent Collet-Billon had told lawmakers in October he expected 2011 export sales to reach 7.5 billion euros.

On export prospects for the Rafale, Longuet said a UAE decision to pick the Rafale would help sell the fighter to Kuwait and Qatar, which want to be interoperable with their neighbor's Air Force.

"They are interested" but would not be the first to commit, he said. "If they think no decision is being made [by UAE], they will look elsewhere."

Kuwait is looking at acquiring 18 to 22 jet fighters, with Qatar potentially 24, industry executives said, according to La Tribune.

The Defense Ministry appeared to harbor worries about Qatar raising its stake in Lagardère, the family-controlled company which owns 7.5 percent of EADS.

"There are fewer problems in football than in military aeronautics," Longuet said. "It's a subject."

But the decision on Qatar's shareholding in Lagardère was up to the Finance Ministry, not the Defense Ministry, he said.

A Qatari sovereign fund holds 10.07 percent of Lagardère stock, making it the largest single stockholder in the French company, and has asked for a seat on the board. Qatar bought 70 percent of the Paris Saint Germain football club for 30 million euros in May.

Julian Hale in Brussels and Tom Kington in Rome contributed to this report.

F-35 Wins Japan Fighter Competition

TOKYO - Japan on Dec. 20 chose the U.S.-built F-35 Joint Strike Fighter stealth jet for its next-generation mainstay fighter, as North Korea provided a timely reminder of the region's potential for instability.

U.S. AIR FORCE F-35A Joint Strike Fighters are shown in the skies over Eglin Air Force Base, Fla., in July. Japan announced Dec. 20 that it would buy the F-35A variant to replace its F-4 fleet. (Staff Sgt. Joely Santiago / U.S. Air Force)

In a deal estimated to be worth more than $4 billion, Japan went for the trouble-plagued jet to replace its aging fleet of F-4 fighters.

"The government shall acquire 42 units of F-35A after fiscal 2012 in order to replenish and to modernize the current fleet of fighters held by the Air Self-Defense Force," the cabinet said in a statement.

Lockheed Martin's F-35 beat off competition from two other jets: the Boeing F/A-18 Super Hornet and the Eurofighter Typhoon.

The government said Japanese companies would take part in building the new fighters.

The formal decision, which had long been expected, came the day after news of the death of Kim Jong Il sent jitters through the region amid fears a power transition could destabilize North Korea's hard=line regime.

Tokyo was originally expected to announce its pick last week. The selection comes as China's massive military machine continues to grow and Beijing becomes increasingly assertive.

The F-35 is the most expensive weapons program in Pentagon history and has been plagued by cost overruns and technical delays.

Co-developed with British defense giant BAE Systems, the F-35 was the costliest of the three models under consideration, with a price tag estimated at $113 million per aircraft.

Japan initially aimed to acquire the F-22 Raptor stealth fighter to renew its fleet, but U.S. law prohibits exports of the jet and the United States has halted production of the model.

Japan, which places its security alliance with the United States at the cornerstone of its foreign policy, has long depended on U.S. manufacturers for its military hardware.

Fighter Jet Projects Surge, But Not Where You'd Expect

The number of countries attempting to develop a new fighter aircraft has surged recently, part of a cycle that has ebbed and flowed since the dawn of the jet age.

South Korea and Turkey are the latest nations to start clean-sheet programs, while Japan is working on its ATD-X concept demonstrator, India is working on an improved version of its Light Combat Aircraft and Indonesia has signed on to the Korean effort.

Most are drawn by the prospects of developing a homegrown industrial base, boosting employment and filling military needs, analysts said.

"If you want to do all three badly, then you build a national fighter," said Richard Aboulafia, an analyst at the Teal Group, Fairfax, Va. "It comes in waves, and a lot of it driven by national aspirations and a lot of it is driven by perception of threat, and a lot of it is driven by the ruling party in the given country."

In the 1980s, domestic politics fostered a spate of indigenous fighter projects, which were generally killed off in the next decade or two by economic realities, Aboulafia said. With free-market capitalism's cachet diminished in many parts of the world, such national programs have made a comeback.

"Even autarchy has come back into vogue," Aboulafia said. "I think this might be a reflected dislike of market reality that has come with the economic meltdown of the past three years."

There is also a perception that an indigenous effort will be cheaper than an imported design, said Byron Callan, an analyst at Capital Alpha Partners in Washington. Many countries cannot afford new fighters such as the F-35, Eurofighter Typhoon, Dassault Rafale or even the new Russian PAK-FA, Callan said.

Even the Swedish Gripen, which recently won a Swiss order largely because it was cheaper than the Rafale and Typhoon, is very expensive, he said.

Something has to fill the market void, Callan said.

But Aboulafia said these nations are grossly underestimating the cost of developing a new fighter. For example, Seoul estimates that its KF-X stealth fighter effort will cost about $8 billion - "which is enough to maybe design a decent set of wings," he said.

Dan Gouré, an analyst at the Lexington Institute, Arlington, Va., concurred.

"It's horribly expensive," he said.

The track record for national fighter programs is not a good one. Japan, which has a highly developed economy and advanced technology, tried and failed to develop good cost-effective fighter, even with U.S. help, Aboulafia said.

Japan's experience with the F-2, which was based on the F-16, was a disaster that largely soured the country on developing an indigenous fighter. Aboulafia noted Tokyo's ongoing ATD-X stealth fighter development effort but said it would likely produce only a concept demonstrator, not a full production effort.

"There is nothing about history that would make you want to do this," Aboulafia said. "And looking at history, they have a lot to answer for."

Nor do most countries attempting to build an indigenous fighter have the technical wherewithal to build such an aircraft. Neither Turkey nor South Korea has the technical ability to build such fighters without external help.

"They're going to find there is an enormous gap between the licensed production of F-16s and designing, integrating and producing an entirely new product," Aboulafia said.

Even South Korea's recent experience in co-developing the T-50 jet trainer does little to alleviate the problem, he said.

Gouré was blunt about their chances for success: "There is no way in hell."

Only a handful of nations can design and build fighters without external help, he said. France, Britain, the U.S. and Russia are the only countries ever to successfully develop their own fighters, he said.

"Even the Chinese stuff, it's really all derivative of Russian hardware," he said.

Only about 60 percent of the Saab Gripen is built in Sweden, with the rest, including the engines, mostly U.S. in origin, Gouré said.

Because indigenous programs almost invariably offer an inferior product, there is tension between those who would develop such aircraft and those who will be expected to fly them in combat.

"Are you simply expecting to do as good a job as a traditional producer, or are you simply expecting your air force to take casualties?" Aboulafia said. "The best-case scenario is the reinvention of a fourth-generation jet with higher cost, which is exactly what happened with Japan's F-2."

India's Light Combat Aircraft is a good example. Leery of adopting the homegrown fighter because of its less-than-impressive performance, the Air Force has shown a clear preference for the winner of the country's Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft - either Rafale or the Typhoon - and the Indo-Russian T-50 PAK-FA stealth fighter.

Callan said, ultimately, countries that need only interceptors for home defense don't need particularly advanced aircraft. A light fighter similar to an F-16 or F/A-18 might suffice.

"There is 'good enough' for a lot of these markets," he said.