China's Aircraft Carrier Ends Maiden Trip: Xinhua

BEIJING - China's first aircraft carrier has returned to port after completing a "smooth" set of sea trials designed to test its capabilities, the state news agency Xinhua reported on Aug. 15.
The 990-foot ship docked in the northeastern port of Dalian on Aug. 14 after five days of trials that have sparked international concern about the country's widening naval reach.

The carrier tests came amid heightened tensions over a number of maritime territorial disputes involving China, notably in the South China Sea, which is believed to be rich in oil and gas and is claimed by several countries.
Dockworkers set off fireworks as the vessel, a refitted old Soviet carrier called the Varyag, returned to port, Xinhua said, adding that the ship would now undergo further work and testing.
"The sea trials carried out by the aircraft carrier on its maiden voyage went smoothly," it said.
China's People's Liberation Army - the world's largest active military - is extremely secretive about its defense programs, which benefit from a huge and expanding military budget boosted by the nation's runaway economic growth.
Earlier this year, China announced military spending would rise 12.7 percent to 601.1 billion yuan ($91.7 billion) in 2011.
In January, China revealed it was developing its first stealth fighter jet. It is also working on an anti-ballistic missile capable of piercing the defenses of even the most sturdy U.S. naval ships.
Japan recently expressed concern about what it called the "opaqueness" of China's military budget, and the U.S. State Department last week called on the country to explain why it needed an aircraft carrier.
"This is part of our larger concern that China is not as transparent as other countries," said spokeswoman Victoria Nuland. "It's not as transparent as the United States about its military acquisitions, about its military budget."
Beijing only recently confirmed it was revamping the old Soviet ship. It has repeatedly insisted that the carrier poses no threat to its neighbors and will be used mainly for training and research purposes.
But a news website run by China's defense ministry took a different stance four days ago, stating that the carrier should handle territorial disputes as well.

Chinese Avionics Advances Ripple Throughout Asia

ISLAMABAD - China's avionics industry is closing the gap with other avionics producers, with benefits flowing to Pakistan and new challenges emerging for the U.S.

Chinese aircraft are helping Pakistan maintain conventional deterrence toward India as New Delhi pursues cutting-edge technology to revamp its airpower. As a result, said Usman Shabbir, of the Pakistan Military Consortium think tank, the new "JF-17 Block II [combat aircraft] may see a Chinese AESA [active electronically scanned array] radar along with an IRST [infrared search and track] sensor, and an even better ECM [electronic countermeasures] suite."

Wider advances by China's aviation industry would result in "greater use of composites to reduce the overall airframe weight" for the JF-17 Block II, and also a thrust vectoring control engine; though Shabbir conceded the latter "has never been officially confirmed."

Analyst Kaiser Tufail said an AESA radar is "the way to go," and that "all future [radar] acquisitions or retrofits would be AESA, whether mechanically scanned or phased-array type."

Tufail said the current JF-17 radar, a variant of which is fitted to the Chinese Chengdu J-10 combat jet, is an interim solution "because the [Pakistan Air Force] had been unable to find a radar vendor who could sell cutting-edge technology at an affordable price."

Tufail said Pakistan's acquisition of advanced Chinese avionics should not be seen through the prism of Indian programs, such as the Medium Multirole Combat Aircraft program. Rather, he said, it should be seen as Pakistan's effort to keep pace with modern weaponry.

And China benefits from its collaboration with Pakistan.

"Traditionally, the Chinese aviation industry has found an excellent test bed in the PAF, and their products have been, and can be, proven in ways that are not possible with [China's Air Force], due to limitations of comparative analysis in truly operational scenarios and with respect to Western equipment that PAF operates," he said.

As a result, a "Chinese AESA radar would, therefore, be a synergetic success in partnership with Pakistan," he said.

However, it is unknown whether the new JF-17 Block II radars are variants of those fitted to the improved J-10B. If that is the case, analyst and Chinese specialist Andrei Chang said the new radar is unlikely to be an AESA type.

"The phased-array radar testing on the J-10B is a passive model," he said.

Chang said he does not think the Chinese have developed "a useful AESA radar for the JF-17 and J-10B," but they could in the future.

"I know they are researching AESA radars, but it takes time," he said.

China's technological advances give potential adversaries cause for concern, Tufail said.

"As in many other fields like space and information technology, China is making a mark in major ways which impacts geostrategic and security issues," he said. "Technological developments like AESA radars would, thus, certainly have a bearing on the comfort levels of countries that have an adversarial relationship with China."

The potential threat posed by Chinese advances in avionics is an issue Carlo Kopp of the Air Power Australia think tank has tried to raise.

"Chinese technology is a mix of reverse-engineered Western and Russian designs, and some often very good indigenous ideas," he said. The danger this poses is clear.

"As the Chinese advance and proliferate these products, they are increasingly narrowing the range of environments in which Western air forces and navies can operate," Kopp said.

CHINESE DEFENSES

"Today, only the U.S. F-22A [stealth fighter] and B-2A [stealth bomber] can penetrate Chinese airspace with impunity," he said. "All other Western designs, including the intended F-35 [Joint Strike Fighter] and existing F/A-18E, would suffer prohibitive loss rates" to surface-to-air missiles, he said.

Kopp's opinion of the F-35 is perhaps surprising, but he said he believes China's investment in more maneuverable aircraft will expose severe weaknesses.

"The notion that having a good AESA [radar] can overcome kinematic performance limitations in a design is predicated on the idea that your missiles are 100 percent effective in long-range combat," he said. "The evidence shows otherwise for the AIM-120 AMRAAM."

The approach that says "let the missiles do the turning," rather than the aircraft, "is a mantra in the F-35 and F/A-18 camps," Kopp said. "Unfortunately, it is wishful thinking by folks promoting obsolete designs. The mathematics and physics of aerial combat do not support this proposition."

Therefore, the strategic impact of China's advances will be substantial and exacerbated by poor long-term decision-making by the U.S., Kopp said.

"As China wholly recapitalizes its fleets, and exports these products, there will be an inevitable strategic impact, as the U.S. has been reluctant to export the F-22, has chopped F-22 production funds, and has no new products in the pipeline capable of robustly surviving against top-end Chinese products in combat," he said.

Kopp also blames the reluctance by Washington to share high-technology weaponry with allies that could check China's advance.

He singles out Defense Secretary Robert Gates for making decisions that will produce "a dangerous long-term strategic environment in Asia as China introduces and proliferates advanced technology, and the U.S. chooses for ideological reasons to no longer invest in advanced air power."

Is China's J-20 Better Than F-22?

China, Russia Erode U.S. Stealth Technology Lead

The United States' lead in stealth technology is eroding more quickly than anticipated, senior uniformed officials told Congress on May 24.
"Those are discouraging," said U.S. Air Force Lt. Gen. Herbert Carlisle, the service's deputy chief of staff for operations, plans and requirements during testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee.

Carlisle was referring to Russia's development of the Sukhoi T-50 PAK-FA and China's efforts to build the Chengdu J-20 fifth-generation fighters.
"Over time I believe we will still maintain an advantage, but I think our advantage will be a shorter period of time," he said.
Carlisle added that the U.S. has maintained an advantage in stealth technology since the late 1970s with the debut of the now-retired F-117 stealth fighter.
"I don't see us maintaining an advantage for as long, as I think other nations will continue to gain that technology," he said.
Carlisle, who has extensive experience flying Soviet-built warplanes during the 1980s as part of the formerly classified 4477th Test and Evaluation Squadron, said both Russia and China are skilled at building good fighter aircraft.
However, Carlisle cautioned that neither of those two countries would be able to build such aircraft overnight. It takes time and experience to build such sophisticated stealth warplanes, he said.
'These things are hard to develop," Carlisle said, pointing to the difficultly the U.S. faced in building the B-2 stealth bomber, F-22 Raptor and F-35 Joint Strike Fighter.
"We have the same assessment," added Marine Lt. Gen. Terry Robling, that service's deputy commandant for aviation, who was testifying alongside Carlisle. "What's keeping us ahead right now - I think the Joint Strike Fighter and its capabilities will do that."
Speaking to reporters after his testimony, Carlisle added that although he thought Russia and China will eventually get to an operational fifth-generation fighter, they are not remotely close to matching the F-35.
"I think they'll get there eventually, but by that time, we'll be at the next level," he said.

U.S. Rolls Out Red Carpet for China Military Chief

WASHINGTON - The U.S. military will lay out the red carpet for China's military chief as Washington renews its effort to forge a defense dialogue with Beijing despite tensions and mutual distrust.
People's Liberation Army (PLA) Chief of General Staff Chen Bingde starts a week-long visit May 15 to the United States, the first trip to America by the country's top-ranking officer in seven years, officials said.

Chen will tour four military bases, deliver a speech to American officers and hold talks with his U.S. counterpart, Adm. Mike Mullen, Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, a senior defense official said.
"We've pulled out all the stops" for the visit, the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told reporters.
Military relations between the nations have been strained and lagged behind diplomatic and trade ties, with Beijing objecting to U.S. arms sales to Taiwan while Washington has voiced concern about China's military buildup.
Gates and other U.S. officials have appealed to China to agree to a more reliable dialogue that could help defuse tensions and avoid potential misunderstandings, similar to ties that were built up between the Americans and the Soviets during the Cold War.
"What we're really looking for is a relationship that there's some mutual transparency and trust developed between us. So that if there is some incident or some disagreement, it's a relationship that we can depend on," the official said.
The Pentagon did not expect a breakthrough during Chen's visit but the official said Mullen, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, hoped to persuade Chen to agree to more regularly scheduled discussions.
"We will discuss options for more contact, with some established rhythm, periodic phone conversations, something like that," he said.
The last U.S. visit by a senior leader from the PLA was in 2009, when Gen. Xu Caihou came to Washington and toured military bases.
When the U.S. defense secretary paid a high-profile visit to Beijing in January, the Chinese military upstaged Gates with an inaugural test flight of the country's J-20 stealth fighter.
Chen was expected to offer his view of military relations at a May 18 speech at National Defense University after holding talks May 17 with Mullen and senior military staff in the Pentagon's "tank."
Over the course of the week, the Chinese general is due to get a first-hand look at U.S. naval warships at Naval Station Norfolk, Va.; a "live fire" exercise at Fort Stewart, Ga.; fighter aircraft at Nellis Air Force Base, Nev.; and the military's National Training Center in California.
Chen also plans to attend a concert May 16 at Washington's Kennedy Center with bands from the U.S. Army and the PLA performing. U.S. officials said it will mark the first time a PLA band has ever played in the United States.
Chen's visit comes after the United States said May 11 that it wanted to set guidelines with Beijing on the use of space, voicing worries that the Asian power is increasingly able to destroy or jam satellites.

Is China Developing a VSTOL Fighter?

TAIPEI - China may have test-flown the J-18 Red Eagle vertical short takeoff and landing (VSTOL) fighter earlier this month, if chatter on Chinese-language military blogs is accurate.
China's defense industry is largely opaque and it is difficult to substantiate Internet chatter. However, Chinese-language military blogs reported the first test flight of the stealthy J-20 Black Eagle fighter in January, much to the surprise of the Western media.

Now there are reports emerging of a test flight of the J-18. Tests were supposedly conducted earlier this month and the fighter is similar to the Sukhoi Su-33 carrier-based fighter.
"In 2005, a Chinese aviation industry source told me the Chengdu Aircraft Corporation was considering a F-35B-like program," said Richard Fisher, vice president of the Washington-based International Assessment and Strategy Center. "Given the PLA's naval power projection ambitions, it is probable there is VSTOL or STOVL [short takeoff and vertical landing] fighter program."
There are "many alleged programs in the Chinese blogosphere," Fisher said.
These include a J-16 built by the Shenyang Aircraft Corporation (SAC), which is a stealthier dedicated attack version of the J-11B (Su-27) multirole fighter with active electronically scanned array radar and an internal weapons bay, which will "reportedly emerge this summer," he said.
China is expected to begin sea trials for its first aircraft carrier this summer. Analysts believe the J-15 Flying Shark, a copy of the Sukhoi Su-33, will be China's first carrier-based fighter. SAC procured an earlier prototype of the Su-33 from the Ukraine in 2001 and the J-15 reportedly conducted its first test flight in mid-2009.
There have also been questionable Chinese-language military blogs providing sketchy reporting on J-17 and J-19 fighter programs. Reportedly, the J-17 is long-range fighter-bomber based on the Russian Sukhoi Su-34 and the J-19 is a heavy multirole fighter based on the J-11B.