"Attack on Iran would be catastrophe " says Russia

MOSCOW — Russia on Jan. 18 said a military strike on Iran would be a “catastrophe” with the severest consequences that risked inflaming existing tensions between Sunni and Shiite Muslims.

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also accused the West of trying to suffocate the Iranian economy and incite popular discontent with new sanctions such as a proposed oil embargo.

“As for the chances of this catastrophe happening, you would have to ask those constantly mentioning it as an option that remains on the table,” Lavrov said when asked about the chances of military action.

Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak had earlier said his country was not even close to deciding to attack Iran over its nuclear weapons program and still believed that a military option remained “very far away.”

Lavrov told an annual foreign policy briefing that the chances of war were too dire too contemplate because they would incite intercommunal tensions in the region and flood neighboring countries with Iranian refugees.

“I have no doubt in the fact that it will only add fuel to the fire of the still-simmering Sunni-Shiite conflict. And I do not know where the subsequent chain reaction will end, Lavrov said.

“There will be large flows of refugees from Iran, including to Azerbaijan, and from Azerbaijan to Russia. ... This will not be a walk in the park,” he said of possible military involvement.

Lavrov added that punitive sanctions aimed at winning more transparency from Iran had “exhausted” themselves and only hurt the chances of peace.

“Additional unilateral sanctions against Iran have nothing to do with a desire to ensure the regime’s commitment to nuclear non-proliferation,” Lavrov said. “It is seriously aimed at suffocating the Iranian economy and the well being of its people, probably in the hope of inciting discontent.”

His comments came as European Union diplomats closed in on a July date for a full oil embargo that would suit nations such as Italy with a strong reliance on Iranian supplies.

Lavrov said Russia had evidence that Iran was ready to cooperate closely with inspectors from the United Nations IAEA nuclear watchdog and was preparing for “serious talks” with the West.

He also hinted that Europe and the United States were imposing the measures with the specific purpose of torpedoing new rounds of talks.

Russia has been one of the few world powers to enjoy open access to senior Iranian leaders and on Jan. 18 hosted its Supreme National Security Council deputy chief Ali Bagheri.

The Iranian embassy said Bagheri would hold talks with Lavrov and discuss the option of resuming nuclear negotiations with the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany.

Moscow was also due to receive Iranian Interior Minister Mostafa Mohammad Najjar on Jan. 22 for talks focusing on domestic security issues and drug trafficking.

Tehran’s ambassador to Moscow for his part said he expected Russia’s support to continue because it too was being threatened by the West.

“We expect Russia not to agree to a deal with the West,” Iranian Ambassador Mahmoud Reza Sajjadi told the Interfax news agency.

“If there are (non-Western) countries that want to see Iran become a victim of the West, they must understand that the West will get to them too,” said Sajjadi. “We hope that the Russian government and the Russian people will take note of this.”

Azerbaijan Warns Armenia with Show of Military Might

BAKU - Azerbaijan paraded thousands of soldiers and hundreds of military vehicles through its capital June 26 in a show of force two days after talks failed to resolve a bitter territorial dispute with Armenia.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, who has overseen massive increases in defense spending, warned in his speech that he was ready to take back the disputed Nagorny Karabakh region, which was seized from Azerbaijan in the 1990s by Armenian separatist forces backed by Yerevan.

"The war is not over yet," Aliyev said at the showpiece parade in the center of Baku, vowing to end what he called the "occupation" of Karabakh.
"The territorial integrity of Azerbaijan must be restored and the territory will be restored," he said.
Six thousand troops marched in the parade, accompanied by tanks, armored cars and rocket launchers, as fighter planes and combat helicopters roared overhead and warships lined up in the nearby Caspian Sea bay.
In his speech, Aliyev also spoke approvingly about the increases in defense spending financed by the energy-rich state's huge revenues from oil and gas exports.
"Azerbaijan has fulfilled the task that I set, which was that Azerbaijan's military expenditure must exceed the entire state budget of Armenia," he said, noting that defense spending reached $3.3 billion (2.3 billion euros) this year.
"Military expenditure occupies first place in the state budget of Azerbaijan and that is understandable. It will be like this as long as our lands are not liberated," he said.
Military hardware manufactured in Azerbaijan, including unmanned drones, was on show for the first time to highlight the country's expanding defense industry.
The "Armed Forces Day" parade in Baku was the third in the country's post-Soviet history and also marked this year's 20th anniversary of independence.
It was shown live on state television in a broadcast preceded by a series of patriotic songs accompanied by images of troops in action and President Aliyev wearing camouflage fatigues.
The parade was held after the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia failed to agree despite strong international pressure to a "basic principles" roadmap document that would have been a significant step towards a Karabakh peace deal.
A joint statement issued after the summit in Russia on June 24 merely noted "the reaching of mutual understanding on a number of questions, whose resolution helps create conditions to approve the basic principles".
The two enemies traded accusations after the summit, with Armenia saying that Azerbaijan had torpedoed the talks by wanting a dozen changes to the document and Baku saying that Yerevan was seeking to mislead the world.
The outcome was a major disappointment after hopes had been raised of a long-awaited breakthrough in the talks, which were presided over by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in the city of Kazan.
U.S. President Barack Obama had also telephoned his Armenian and Azerbaijani counterparts before the summit to urge them to agree the "basic principles" document.
Seventeen years after the Karabakh ceasefire, the opposing sides still often exchange deadly fire across the frontline and Baku has repeatedly threatened to use force if negotiations don't yield results.
Fears have been raised of a return to war that could prove even bloodier than the 1990s conflict and potentially threaten pipelines taking Caspian Sea oil and gas from Azerbaijan to Europe.
The interim "basic principles" agreement would see an Armenian withdrawal from areas around Karabakh that were also seized during the post-Soviet war.
It also envisages international security guarantees and a vote on the final status of the territory at some point in the future.
But even if the document is eventually agreed by both sides, huge obstacles remain to a final peace deal.
Armenia insists that Karabakh will never again be ruled by Baku, while Azerbaijan insists that the region must remain part of its sovereign territory.

Azerbaijan, Armenia May Go To War Over Territory

BAKU, Azerbaijan - Azerbaijan is seriously preparing for war with Armenia over the disputed region of Nagorny Karabakh, the country's defense minister told international peace mediators Feb. 11.
"Azerbaijan is seriously preparing to liberate its territories," Defense Minister Safar Abiyev said in comments published by the ministry's news service.

This is not the first occasion that a top Azerbaijani official has used tough rhetoric over a possible conflict.
Azerbaijan has repeatedly threatened to use force to win back Karabakh if peace talks do not yield results, while Armenia has warned of large-scale retaliation if Baku launches military action.
Abiyev said that Armenia must end what he called its "occupation policy" in Karabakh, where ethnic Armenian separatists backed by Yerevan seized control from Azerbaijan in a war in the early 1990s that left about 30,000 dead.
"Only in this context is a peaceful settlement of the conflict possible," Abiyev said.
Abiyev was speaking to peace mediators from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, whose efforts to find a negotiated solution to the Karabakh dispute have continued for more than a decade.
Abiyev said that Azerbaijan had not yet given up hope that the mediators' efforts could succeed, despite the lack of progress so far.
A leading think tank warned this week that increased spending on weapons, escalating frontline clashes, war-like rhetoric and a virtual breakdown in peace talks were increasing the chances of renewed military action over Karabakh.
The Brussels-based International Crisis Group said that exchanges of fire across the ceasefire line could spiral out of control, threatening regional stability and Western energy interests in the region.