North Korea Tests Multi-Warhead Missile, Escalating Regional Tensions

 On June 27, North Korea announced that it successfully tested a multi-warhead missile, a development that could pose significant threats to South Korea, Japan, and the United States if confirmed. This test is seen as an attempt by North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong Un, to evade missile defenses in South Korea and the US, fulfilling his long-standing ambition for a multi-warhead missile.

The announcement from North Korean state media, KCNA, contradicted South Korea’s assessment of a failed weapon test from the previous day. KCNA reported that the test on June 26 involved the separation and guidance control of individual mobile warheads, marking a significant step in advancing missile technologies.

The test aimed to secure Multiple Independently Targeted Re-entry Vehicle (MIRV) capability, enabling the delivery of multiple warheads to different targets. The missile’s decoy was detected by radar, and the mobile warheads were successfully guided to three target coordinates.

Reports indicate that North Korea used a modified Hwasong-16 booster for a shortened-range test to validate the release of independent warheads. This test, the first of its kind for North Korea, is considered a preliminary step by international observers.

KCNA quoted the North Korean Missile Administration, highlighting the test as part of a full-scale effort to enhance missile capabilities and technologies. Kim Jong Un has listed a multi-warhead missile among his priorities, alongside hypersonic weapons, spy satellites, solid-fuel ICBMs, and submarine-launched nuclear missiles, all of which are in various development stages.

This development is particularly significant amid rising tensions between North Korea and NATO, especially after North Korea’s provocative actions, such as sending waste-filled balloons across the 39th parallel and issuing multiple warnings against US-South Korea cooperation.

Recently, North Korea revived defense cooperation with Russia, hosting Russian President Vladimir Putin and signaling readiness to send troops to fight in Ukraine. Amid this backdrop, the MIRV test gains critical importance, potentially elevating North Korea’s threat level, especially if the warheads are nuclear.

Despite international sanctions, North Korea is believed to have assembled 40-50 nuclear warheads. In November, Kim Jong Un urged exponential nuclear weapon production and aligning with nations opposing the US in a “New Cold War.”

North Korea’s test follows India’s recent MIRV test, which unsettled its nuclear-armed neighbors, Pakistan and China. Unlike South Korea, which lacks nuclear weapons, this development significantly heightens the threat.

MIRVs can overwhelm missile defenses by deploying multiple warheads simultaneously, making interception more difficult. This sophisticated technology requires advanced capabilities, which some US critics believe North Korea might be receiving from Russia, given their military exchanges.

While the world advocates for nuclear non-proliferation, the development of MIRV technology has faced criticism. Hans Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists expressed concerns about the increasing number of countries acquiring MIRV capabilities, warning that it could escalate nuclear tensions.

Similar concerns apply to North Korea, which has issued several nuclear threats. The Washington-based Wilson Center noted that MIRVs would significantly undermine US defense capabilities against a North Korean nuclear strike.

Pakistan's Potential Nuclear Submarine Program Challenges Indian Naval Strategy

 Pakistan is considering enhancing its naval capabilities by equipping its under-construction Chinese submarines with nuclear-tipped missiles, potentially altering the strategic balance for the Indian Navy.

Delays due to fiscal constraints had postponed the acquisition of S-26 Hangor class submarines from China. Initially expected by the end of 2023, the first of these Yuan-class submarines was launched in May 2024.

Once eight of these submarines, equipped with Air-Independent Propulsion (AIP), join the Pakistan Navy, they will significantly boost the country’s offensive sea denial strategy, which emphasizes the use of submarines and missile-carrying maritime patrol aircraft. Expected to be operational by the late 2020s and early 2030s, the addition will increase the number of AIP-equipped submarines in the Pakistan Navy to 11.

Recent reports suggest that the Hangor class may not be a purely conventional attack submarine. Retired Pakistani naval officers have discussed on state television that Islamabad is aiming for an “assured” second-strike capability.

According to a Quwa report, Vice Admiral Ahmed Saeed and Rear Admiral Saleem Akhtar, both retired officials, talked about acquiring Hangor-class submarines from China. Saeed suggested these submarines would be a "hybrid," balancing conventional attack capabilities with nuclear potential.

While retrofitting the Hangor class with nuclear reactors is unlikely, Pakistan could deploy Tactical Nuclear Warheads (TNWs) on these submarines. Building nuclear-powered submarines is costly and complex, as noted by retired Commodore Anil Jai Singh, making it improbable even with Chinese assistance.

Pakistan has been developing TNWs since its first nuclear test in 1998. These smaller, portable weapons are designed for battlefield use rather than as strategic deterrents. The Hangor-class submarines will likely use a variant of the Babur-3 Sea-Launched Cruise Missile (SLCM), first tested in 2018 with a range of 450 km. The Babur-3 is a critical component of Pakistan’s “credible second-strike capability,” according to the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR).

Vice Admiral Saeed emphasized that while the Hangor class is not a dedicated nuclear platform, the Pakistan Navy seeks to fire nuclear weapons from the sea, potentially requiring just one or two dedicated submarines. However, the Hangor class would primarily manage conventional roles and only strategic duties part-time.

Commodore Singh expressed doubts about the effectiveness of a single nuclear-armed submarine in the Pakistan Navy. He suggested that China might lease one to Pakistan in the future, but this remains uncertain.

Indian Navy's Concerns

While Pakistan cannot independently design and develop a nuclear-powered submarine, it may be exploring the possibility as part of a long-term strategy. China's support in arming Pakistan with such a submarine would challenge the Indian Navy’s dominance in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). China has already been supplying submarines to Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Myanmar, creating a competitive underwater environment in the IOR.

Retired Captain Anurag Bisen highlighted that a Pakistani submarine armed with TNWs would constrain the Indian Navy's deployment of its aircraft carriers until the submarine is accounted for.

India has been adopting a flexible deterrence approach against China and Pakistan. In March, New Delhi successfully tested the long-range ballistic missile Agni-V, featuring Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicle (MIRV) technology, enhancing the survivability of its nuclear missiles.

Despite the potential threat from TNWs, Commodore Singh remains optimistic, questioning whether Pakistan has considered India's likely retaliation, as stated in its nuclear doctrine. Using TNWs is complicated and risky, making their actual deployment a significant gamble for Pakistan.

Rethinking India's Nuclear Strategy: Challenges and Responses Amidst Pakistan's Growing Nuclear Assertiveness

In the wake of Pakistan's increasingly India-centric nuclear weapons policy, India faces pressing questions regarding its own nuclear stance. Former Pakistani General, often referred to as the 'Father of the Pak Atomic Bomb', recently warned of potential mayhem, urging India to reconsider its long-held No First Use (NFU) policy. As tensions escalate, how can Delhi effectively respond to these strategic shifts?

The article delves into the historical context of nuclear weaponry, highlighting the evolution from the 'Little Boy' dropped on Hiroshima to contemporary MIRV-ed ballistic missiles like India's Agni-5. With Pakistan boasting a growing arsenal, including advancements in surface-to-surface missiles (SSMs), India is urged to adapt its nuclear doctrine accordingly.

Critics argue that India's adherence to Cold War-era policies is outdated, especially in light of Pakistan's aggressive stance and China's nuanced nuclear strategies. While India has hinted at flexibility regarding NFU, concrete actions are needed to match evolving threats.

Recent developments, such as the activation of the Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR) and successful MIRV-capable missile tests, underscore India's commitment to enhancing its nuclear capabilities. However, challenges persist, including geopolitical tensions and technological advancements.

In response to Pakistan's assertive rhetoric, India must reassess its deterrence strategy, potentially moving from NFU to a Need-Based First Use (NBFU) policy. As the region navigates uncertain waters, the article calls for a pragmatic approach to nuclear deterrence, emphasizing the imperative of aligning policy with evolving threats.

Amidst growing nuclear posturing, India's upcoming Independence Day celebrations present an opportune moment for reevaluation and recalibration of its nuclear doctrine. The article concludes with a stark reminder: in an increasingly volatile landscape, a deterrent without intent is rendered impotent. 

Pakistan Unveils Advanced Aircraft and Rocket Programs at Military Technology Parade

 During the March 23 Pakistan Day Parade held in the capital, Pakistan's military proudly exhibited its latest defense capabilities, unveiling a series of cutting-edge aircraft and rocket projects. Among the showcased equipment was the Haider platform, representing the first locally produced VT-4 main battle tank, which made its debut appearance. This tank, part of the pilot production batch unveiled earlier in March by the state-owned armored fighting vehicles manufacturer Heavy Industries Taxila, marks a significant milestone in Pakistan's defense manufacturing capabilities.

Moreover, Pakistan showcased the long-range HQ-9/P surface-to-air missile system, making its inaugural appearance. This missile system, supplied by China and entering service in 2021, boasts a range of 125 kilometers, adding a formidable layer to Pakistan's air defense architecture. The parade also featured the unveiling of Pakistan's indigenous Fatah 2 guided multiple-launch rocket system and the medium-range Ababeel ballistic missile, both showcasing the nation's prowess in missile technology.

The display of these advanced military assets underscores Pakistan's commitment to enhancing its defense capabilities and modernizing its armed forces. The decision to unveil these projects during the Pakistan Day Parade highlights the significance of these advancements in bolstering Pakistan's security posture.

Furthermore, Pakistan has announced ambitious new defense programs, including the PFX Program aimed at replacing the JF-17 combat aircraft. Additionally, the Fatah 3, with a range of 450 kilometers, is set to enter service soon, while the Fatah 4, boasting a range of 700 kilometers, is currently under development. These programs signify Pakistan's determination to stay at the forefront of military technology and maintain a robust defense posture.

Experts have noted the strategic implications of these developments, with the HQ-9/P missile system offering shorter effective ranges but superior sensor performance compared to its Russian counterparts. The introduction of these advanced missile systems and aircraft programs reflects Pakistan's commitment to deterring potential threats and ensuring national security.

Moreover, the unveiling of the Ababeel ballistic missile, alongside future developments, underscores Pakistan's efforts to enhance its nuclear deterrence capabilities. This display serves as a clear message of Pakistan's resolve to maintain a credible and dynamic full-spectrum deterrent.

Looking ahead, Pakistan's PFX Program aims to develop a next-generation fighter aircraft, signaling the nation's aspirations for technological advancement in the aerospace domain. While details about the PFX Program remain scarce, experts anticipate cooperation with international partners such as Turkey and China to leverage their expertise and resources.

In conclusion, Pakistan's unveiling of advanced aircraft and rocket programs at the Pakistan Day Parade showcases the nation's commitment to modernizing its defense capabilities and ensuring its readiness to counter emerging threats. These developments mark significant strides in Pakistan's defense industry and underscore its resolve to safeguard its sovereignty and national interests.