India to Test US-Made Stryker AFVs for Enhanced Border Defense Against China

India is set to evaluate the US-made Stryker Armored Fighting Vehicle (AFV) to boost its defense capabilities against potential threats along its northern and western borders. The Stryker AFV has seen extensive use in global conflicts, most recently in Ukraine. Indian media reports indicate that the Indian Army will soon test these vehicles in desert terrains and the high-altitude region of Ladakh. Defense establishment sources reveal that the Indian Army aims to acquire around 530 armored fighting vehicles.

Following the 2+2 ministerial consultations in November 2023 between India and the US, a senior US defense official announced plans for the US and India to collaborate on producing Stryker AFVs for India. Although no official agreement has been signed, sources suggest that negotiations are at an advanced stage. Last month, Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan discussed the AFVs.

India is expected to make a limited off-the-shelf purchase of Strykers through the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) route. Subsequently, joint production of the vehicles is likely to take place in India under the US-India Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET). The Stryker is under consideration because Indian vendors have not met the required qualitative standards (QR).

However, the Stryker has some technical limitations that are being assessed. Concerns have been raised about the 350-horsepower Caterpillar C7 engine's performance at high altitudes due to thin air. To address this, the US has offered to replace it with a 750-horsepower Cummins Advanced Combat Engine, providing a significant upgrade.

With an eye on China’s People's Liberation Army near the disputed border, India needs an advanced, battle-tested armored vehicle for high-altitude terrains like Eastern Ladakh. The Indian Army, seeking to modernize its Russian-origin BMP-II amphibious infantry fighting vehicles, plans to replace them with wheeled and tracked Infantry Combat Vehicles. The Strykers are likely to be deployed in high-altitude areas along the border with China, such as Eastern Ladakh and Sikkim. Since the 2020 conflict, India has emphasized the need for light tanks and more armored combat vehicles to navigate the challenging high-altitude terrain.

Opinions about the Stryker in India are divided. Some military experts believe the vehicle will strengthen India’s arsenal against the PLA, while others argue that India already has the indigenous capability with the Wheeled Armoured Platform (WhAP). Although the WhAP has demonstrated its capabilities with multiple turrets, a sight system, and a fire control system, some defense sources argue that it lacks comprehensive sight systems, fire control systems, and weaponry.

If approved, the Stryker’s capabilities will need modifications to suit high-altitude regions like Eastern Ladakh. Proponents emphasize the Stryker's versatility, mobility, and flexibility as suitable for India’s needs. They also note similarities between the US Stryker and the Chinese armored vehicle VN22, highlighting the strategic importance of acquiring such technology.

Combatant Commanders require a brigade that can be quickly and strategically deployed, and Indian officials believe the Stryker meets this need. It is lighter and easier to move compared to larger tanks like the T-72 and T-90 in the Indian arsenal. The Stryker, while not as strong as tanks, can operate in various terrains like snow, mud, and sand.

The Stryker has been combat-tested in Iraq, Afghanistan, and more recently in Ukraine against Russian forces, proving its reliability and effectiveness in various combat situations. 

China Revolutionizes Aerial Surveillance with Advanced Weather Radar Technology

 

Chinese scientists may have achieved a significant breakthrough in aerial surveillance by upgrading ordinary weather radars to detect even the smallest airborne objects. This innovative radar technology allows the detection of tiny high-altitude balloons with the same precision as spotting an F-35 stealth fighter jet, according to claims by the Hong Kong "South China Morning Post."

This advancement transforms weather radars, traditionally unable to detect such small, slow-moving objects, into highly effective surveillance tools. This capability poses potential security concerns for other nations, including the US and India.

The new technology, which only requires a software upgrade for existing weather radars, is both cost-effective and efficient. This means that China can enhance its aviation monitoring and national defense capabilities without significant investment in new hardware.

This upgrade enables weather radars to continue their primary function of weather forecasting while also monitoring small airborne objects, marking a major technological advancement. In the context of the competitive global technological landscape, this achievement underscores China's prowess in innovation.

The development is timely, considering the growing contest for aerial dominance. In early 2023, a Chinese "weather balloon" traversed the US, causing a media frenzy and embarrassing the US military, which initially failed to detect it.

Understanding the Threat: Spy Balloons

Spy balloons have a longstanding history in espionage, offering unique advantages despite the prevalence of satellites. These advanced balloons, equipped with high-tech imaging gear, can provide close-range monitoring and intercept communications. Unlike satellites, which orbit rapidly, these balloons hover at lower altitudes, capturing clearer images.

Chinese researchers have highlighted the military uses of such balloons, including creating false air situations, deploying weapons, and conducting psychological warfare and reconnaissance.

China's "Spy Balloons" in US Skies

In January 2023, a large Chinese balloon entered US airspace, initially undetected by the US military. Public pressure led to the deployment of fighter jets to track the balloon, which was eventually shot down in February 2023. Subsequent investigations revealed the balloon was transmitting navigation data back to China using an American internet service provider.

Threat to Other Countries

China's surveillance efforts extend beyond the US. Countries like Japan and India have reported mysterious aerial objects, suspected to be Chinese spy balloons. China has established its Near-Space Command, utilizing drones, robotics, and spy balloons for high-altitude surveillance under the Central Military Commission.

The Strategic Support Force (SSF), a covert unit of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), operates spy balloons and other surveillance technologies. The SSF runs tracking and command stations worldwide and has a fleet of space support ships.

The Biden administration has accused China of running a military-linked aerial surveillance program targeting over 40 countries. The US and its allies, including Japan and Taiwan, have reported multiple instances of suspected Chinese spy balloons in their airspace.

In November 2023, an unidentified flying object near Imphal airport in Manipur, India, led to the mobilization of fully loaded Rafale jets, highlighting the heightened state of alert regarding potential aerial threats from China.

Conclusion

The implications are clear: aerial surveillance has entered a new phase. While the US and other nations work to improve their detection capabilities, China has surged ahead, converting simple weather radars into advanced surveillance systems. This development signals a new era in aerial espionage, with China significantly altering the landscape of aerial security and surveillance.

Lockheed Martin Battles for Indian Air Force Transport and Fighter Jet Contracts Against Airbus and Embraer

 Lockheed Martin, a major U.S. defense contractor, is fiercely competing for the Indian Air Force's (IAF) transport and fighter jet aircraft contracts. For the transport aircraft, Lockheed Martin is up against Airbus and Embraer.

The IAF’s transport aircraft have been crucial for Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) operations within India and internationally. They also play a vital role in the logistics and movement of Indian armed forces, especially in the Himalayan regions. Historically, the Ilyushin Il-76MD and Antonov An-32 aircraft have been the mainstay for almost 40 years. The recent additions of the C-17 Globemaster and C-130J-30 have extended India’s reach and payload capacity.

As India progresses towards becoming the third-largest economy, its global commitments necessitate an upgrade in the IAF’s transport capabilities. Older aircraft are nearing retirement, prompting the IAF to seek new transport aircraft with an 18 to 30-ton cargo capacity. Contenders include Embraer’s C-390, Lockheed Martin’s C-130J, and the Airbus A400M Atlas.

Currently, the IAF operates a 17-aircraft fleet of Ilyushin Il-76MDs, 105 Antonov An-32 aircraft, 12 Boeing C-17 Globemaster III, and 12 Lockheed Martin C-130J-30 Super Hercules. The older HS-748 aircraft are being replaced by the Airbus C-295MW.

The Indo-Russian Medium Transport Aircraft (MTA) project, initiated in 2009, aimed to replace the An-32 but has faced delays and technical issues, with Russia continuing the project alone. The Ilyushin Il-276, a potential outcome of this project, is expected to begin flight testing in 2023.

In December 2022, the IAF issued a Request for Information (RFI) for a new transport aircraft with an 18 to 30-ton capacity, extending the submission deadline to March 31, 2024. The RFI emphasizes technology transfer, indigenization, and establishing a manufacturing line in India.

The contenders for the contract are:

1. Airbus A400M Atlas: A four-engine turboprop aircraft capable of carrying 37 tons and performing various roles, including medical evacuation and aerial refueling.
2. Embraer C-390 Millennium: A twin-engine, jet-powered aircraft with a 26-ton payload, suitable for multiple missions and known for its operational flexibility and low costs.
3. Lockheed Martin C-130J Super Hercules: A four-engine turboprop with a 19-ton payload, already in service with the IAF and known for its reliability and performance.

The evaluation process will consider technical specifications, life cycle costs, technology transfer levels, and potential for local manufacturing. The decision will also account for the aircraft's ability to operate from short, rough airstrips and support high-altitude operations.

India's defense acquisition processes are often lengthy, but the need for modernizing the IAF’s transport fleet is urgent to avoid capability gaps. Lockheed Martin, Airbus, and Embraer are all well-acquainted with India, with each offering distinct advantages and extensive collaboration history.

Lockheed Martin, in particular, is also pitching its F-21 fighter aircraft to the IAF, emphasizing its long-term presence in India and integration of Indian suppliers into its global supply chain. Airbus, with its significant civil aviation footprint in India, and Embraer, known for its advanced technologies and collaborations, are formidable competitors in this high-stakes battle for IAF contracts.

India Nears Finalization of Maintenance Deal for Russian S-400 Systems with Local Production Plans by 2028

 

According to a source within the Indian defense industry, an agreement between an Indian company and the Russian manufacturer of the S-400 air defense systems for local maintenance and repair is nearly complete. This has been reported by various media outlets, including EurAsian Times, Russia’s Sputnik, and India’s Times of India.

The key joint venture involves an Indian firm collaborating with Almaz-Antey, the Russian state-owned company that developed the S-400 surface-to-air missile (SAM) system. The primary aim of this partnership is to maintain and repair S-400 air defense systems in India, with plans to eventually produce essential components locally.

Negotiations between the Indian company and Almaz-Antey are almost concluded. The partners intend to establish two support centers and commence manufacturing spare parts in India by 2028.

Discussions about India’s role in manufacturing spare parts and maintaining the S-400 system began back in 2019. Reports from BulgarianMilitary.com indicated that Russia and India were negotiating the production of parts for the S-400 systems within India. Sergey Chemezov from Russia’s high-tech company, Rostec, confirmed these discussions. He also mentioned that Russia had previously sold licenses to India for the production of Su-30 fighter jets and T-90 tanks, and collaborated on the development and production of the BrahMos missile in India.

India sought to purchase the Russian-made S-400 missile systems as early as 2015, finalizing a $5.43 billion contract during Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to India. This move faced opposition from Washington, which threatened sanctions on countries buying military equipment from Russia. Despite U.S. pressure, India remains committed to acquiring the S-400 systems.

Indian sources report a delay in the delivery of the SA-21 Growler anti-aircraft missile systems from Russia. Originally scheduled for delivery by 2024, the final pair will now arrive between July and September 2026, likely due to the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. However, Russia has not officially commented on the delay.

In October last year, new information surfaced about India’s pending S-400 units, with photos shared on Russian Telegram accounts showing the transport of key S-400 components. These photos suggested that the final units for India were nearing completion, pending final assembly and quality tests before shipment.

In March 2024, BulgarianMilitary.com reported another delay in the delivery of the final pair of S-400 Triumf systems to India, disrupting India's defense plans which rely on the three existing S-400 units. The delay of the fourth and fifth units, now expected in 2026, is a significant issue for India.

This situation might offer an unexpected benefit for India's defense industry. India, which currently relies on imported parts for various platforms, could leverage the ongoing conflicts and production challenges to gain a major technology transfer from Russia. This would facilitate local assembly of parts and components, turning a challenging situation into a potential advantage through Transfer of Technology (ToT).

Germany and Spain Compete for Indian Navy Submarine Deal with Advanced AIP Technology

 

The Indian Navy's pursuit of fuel cell-based Air Independent Propulsion (AIP)-equipped conventional submarines is moving forward, albeit slowly. Currently, the Navy is evaluating two submarines for its advanced diesel-electric submarine needs, but only one has proven and validated technology. The Indian Navy is conducting field evaluation trials of the AIP technology developed by Spanish shipbuilder Navantia at Cartagena.

This technology has yet to be integrated into the S80 submarine offered to the Indian Navy, although a submarine of this class has already been inducted into the Spanish Navy without AIP technology. Navantia claims that its submarine design meets 'almost' all technical requirements of the P-75I without needing redesign.

Navantia's AIP system for the S80 produces over 300 kW of power, which can be directly applied to P75(I) without scaling up, thus reducing major risks for the Indian Navy. Factory testing of the AIP technology has been completed, simulating actual submarine mission conditions at the Cartagena Shipyard.

Navantia states that the S80 offered to the Indian Navy incorporates the latest technologies, such as Generation BEST AIP (Bio-ethanol Stealth Technology) and an advanced sensor suite. This third-generation AIP system uses hydrogen produced on board from bioethanol instead of stored hydrogen, allowing submarines to sail for up to three weeks submerged with minimal detectable signatures.

The Indian Navy also requires AIP technology combined with Lithium-ion batteries, enabling submarines to operate at high speeds without compromising their position. Navantia and its Indian partner, Larsen and Toubro (L&T), are not collaborating with another partner for proven Lithium-ion battery technology for this project.

Navantia's first submarine equipped with AIP BEST technology is expected to be operational by 2026. However, experts estimate that the AIP system will be ready for operational deployment in about three years, pending further laboratory tests and simulations.

Another submarine under consideration by India is already proven and used by several frontline navies. Recently, a submarine from this class completed a rare voyage under the Arctic ice. This submarine, the Arpão (S161), built by Howaldtswerke-Deutsche Werft (HDW) in Germany, is based on the export-optimized Type 214 design.

ThyssenKrupp has offered India its 214-class submarines, which combine advanced technologies from the 212 CD submarines with the latest AIP developments. These submarines, tailored to the Indian Navy's requirements, will feature Lithium-ion batteries, advanced sensor and combat systems, and enhanced stealth capabilities.

The 212 and 214-class submarines' AIP technology, powered by hydrogen fuel cells, allows for extended submerged operations and silent running, enhancing stealth. These submarines can operate silently, launch torpedoes stealthily, and have countermeasures against torpedoes, providing increased operational flexibility.

The Indian Navy is currently strengthening its undersea fleet, as evidenced by a recent exercise in the Arabian Sea involving eight submarines. Despite challenges such as dwindling fleet numbers and aging submarines, the Navy is pushing forward with plans to build six more conventional diesel submarines under Project-75 I.

However, the Chinese Navy's rapid expansion poses a significant challenge. China has been continuously deploying at least one nuclear-armed submarine at sea and is providing advanced submarine technology to Pakistan. In response, the Indian Navy is enhancing its capabilities to maintain strategic balance in the region.

The Indian Navy's adoption of AIP technology will enhance its fleet's capabilities, putting it in a better position against regional threats. While the Navy considers whether to proceed with proven technology or wait for the deployment of Navantia's AIP BEST technology on an operational submarine, the decision will significantly impact India's undersea defense strategy.

North Korea Tests Multi-Warhead Missile, Escalating Regional Tensions

 On June 27, North Korea announced that it successfully tested a multi-warhead missile, a development that could pose significant threats to South Korea, Japan, and the United States if confirmed. This test is seen as an attempt by North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong Un, to evade missile defenses in South Korea and the US, fulfilling his long-standing ambition for a multi-warhead missile.

The announcement from North Korean state media, KCNA, contradicted South Korea’s assessment of a failed weapon test from the previous day. KCNA reported that the test on June 26 involved the separation and guidance control of individual mobile warheads, marking a significant step in advancing missile technologies.

The test aimed to secure Multiple Independently Targeted Re-entry Vehicle (MIRV) capability, enabling the delivery of multiple warheads to different targets. The missile’s decoy was detected by radar, and the mobile warheads were successfully guided to three target coordinates.

Reports indicate that North Korea used a modified Hwasong-16 booster for a shortened-range test to validate the release of independent warheads. This test, the first of its kind for North Korea, is considered a preliminary step by international observers.

KCNA quoted the North Korean Missile Administration, highlighting the test as part of a full-scale effort to enhance missile capabilities and technologies. Kim Jong Un has listed a multi-warhead missile among his priorities, alongside hypersonic weapons, spy satellites, solid-fuel ICBMs, and submarine-launched nuclear missiles, all of which are in various development stages.

This development is particularly significant amid rising tensions between North Korea and NATO, especially after North Korea’s provocative actions, such as sending waste-filled balloons across the 39th parallel and issuing multiple warnings against US-South Korea cooperation.

Recently, North Korea revived defense cooperation with Russia, hosting Russian President Vladimir Putin and signaling readiness to send troops to fight in Ukraine. Amid this backdrop, the MIRV test gains critical importance, potentially elevating North Korea’s threat level, especially if the warheads are nuclear.

Despite international sanctions, North Korea is believed to have assembled 40-50 nuclear warheads. In November, Kim Jong Un urged exponential nuclear weapon production and aligning with nations opposing the US in a “New Cold War.”

North Korea’s test follows India’s recent MIRV test, which unsettled its nuclear-armed neighbors, Pakistan and China. Unlike South Korea, which lacks nuclear weapons, this development significantly heightens the threat.

MIRVs can overwhelm missile defenses by deploying multiple warheads simultaneously, making interception more difficult. This sophisticated technology requires advanced capabilities, which some US critics believe North Korea might be receiving from Russia, given their military exchanges.

While the world advocates for nuclear non-proliferation, the development of MIRV technology has faced criticism. Hans Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists expressed concerns about the increasing number of countries acquiring MIRV capabilities, warning that it could escalate nuclear tensions.

Similar concerns apply to North Korea, which has issued several nuclear threats. The Washington-based Wilson Center noted that MIRVs would significantly undermine US defense capabilities against a North Korean nuclear strike.

India Eyes Greek Mirage 2000-5 Fighter Jets for Spare Parts

 

Athens has proposed to New Delhi the acquisition of 18 Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets that are nearing the end of their operational lifespan. While local Indian sources have confirmed the offer, the exact value of the potential deal remains undisclosed by both governments. The next step involves Indian experts conducting a technical evaluation of these fighters.

India’s interest in the Mirage 2000-5 primarily lies in securing spare parts. As a major operator of this iconic French aircraft, India aims to keep its Mirage 2000 fleet operational until around 2035. With France no longer producing the Mirage 2000 or its spare parts, this acquisition is seen as highly valuable.

According to Indian source idrw.org, these Greek Mirage 2000-5s, despite their age, could provide essential components to extend the life of India’s existing fleet. This is crucial until newer generation aircraft like the Tejas MkII are fully integrated into the Indian Air Force.

A significant aspect of the proposed deal is the inclusion of a valuable two-seater variant. This variant is essential for pilot training, especially after India lost two such trainers. Experts believe its condition will be meticulously inspected to determine if it can be airworthy or provide parts to restore a trainer lost in recent accidents.

The Indian Air Force’s inspection of the Greek Mirage 2000s will be pivotal in assessing the deal’s feasibility. If the aircraft prove suitable—whether as parts donors or training platforms—the acquisition could offer a temporary solution until the Tejas MkII fighters are operational.

The Mirage 2000-5, developed by Dassault Aviation of France, is a versatile single-engine fourth-generation jet fighter. It excels in air superiority, ground attacks, and reconnaissance missions. It measures 14.36 meters in length, 9.13 meters in wingspan, and 5.20 meters in height, with a wing area of 41 square meters. Powered by a SNECMA M53-P2 afterburning turbofan engine, the Mirage 2000-5 can reach speeds up to Mach 2.2.

The technical specifications include a maximum takeoff weight of 17,000 kilograms, a service ceiling of 17,060 meters, and a rate of climb of 285 meters per second. Its advanced electronics include the RDY radar, HUD, MFDs, and a precise navigation system combining inertial navigation with GPS.

The Mirage 2000-5 is equipped with ECM, RWR, and chaff/flare dispensers to detect and counter incoming threats. It can carry a variety of weapons, including air-to-air missiles like the MICA, Magic II, and Super 530D, laser-guided bombs, regular bombs, and air-to-ground missiles such as the AS-30L and Exocet. It also has a 30mm DEFA 554 cannon for close combat. With additional fuel tanks, the Mirage 2000-5 can fly about 3,335 kilometers, with a combat range of about 1,550 kilometers without refueling.

In summary, India’s potential acquisition of Greek Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets is driven by the need for spare parts to extend the operational life of its existing fleet. The deal’s feasibility will depend on the technical evaluation of these aircraft by Indian experts.

US and Pakistan Conclude Successful Falcon Talon 2024 Exercise Amid Shifting Regional Alliances

 The US Air Force Central Command (AFCENT) and the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) recently completed Falcon Talon 2024, a bilateral exercise held from June 1 to June 11. Hosted annually by the PAF, this event aims to strengthen the critical relationship between the two countries. On June 25, the US Air Force shared details and images of the exercise, emphasizing its focus on tactical counter-terrorism, air-to-ground weapons employment, and expert exchanges.

Airmen from the US Central Command's area were deployed to Pakistan, with personnel and cargo transported by the Air Mobility Command’s C-17 Globemaster III aircraft. The exercise featured the participation of US Air Force F-16 Fighting Falcons from Aviano Air Base’s 510th Expeditionary Fighter Squadron, alongside the PAF’s F-16s and JF-17 Thunder jets.

Photos revealed US and Pakistani aircraft parked at an undisclosed location in Pakistan during the exercise on June 6, 2024. The event underscored the importance of the US-Pakistan relationship and the mutual goal of regional security. According to the US Air Force, Falcon Talon 2024 focused on tactical execution, logistics support, and planning integration.

US Airmen collaborated closely with their Pakistani counterparts, participating in hands-on training and knowledge exchange in areas such as firefighting, explosive ordnance disposal, medical support, and joint terminal attack control. Airmen from the 378th Expeditionary Civil Engineer Squadron Fire Department worked with the Pakistan Air Force Fire Department on various drills and policy creation exercises. The exercise concluded with a friendly firefighter competition to test the newly acquired skills.

Master Sgt. Jonathan Campos of the US Air Force highlighted the positive impact of these exchanges, noting the strong personal relationships and sense of community developed through such activities. Lt. Col. Nicholas Gardner, Chief of Operations for Falcon Talon 2024, emphasized the enduring partnership between the US and Pakistan, critical for regional security since their mutual defense agreement in 1954.

Despite the historical partnership, recent US administrations have deprioritized relations with Pakistan. The Trump administration halted military cooperation, and under the Biden administration, relations have further declined, particularly following the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. In contrast, the US has strengthened its defense ties with India to counter China's influence and isolate Russia following its invasion of Ukraine.

In April 2023, B-1B Lancers from Ellsworth Air Force Base participated in Cope India 2023 for the first time, and in May 2024, the Indian Air Force's Rafale jets participated in the US multinational exercise Red Flag 24 in Alaska. India has also emerged as a strategic partner, receiving advanced technology and military equipment, with further collaborations planned in the space domain under the US-India initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET).

India’s Struggle to Modernize its Fighter Fleet: The Challenges and Choices Ahead

 India's plan to procure 114 Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA), a highly anticipated defense deal, remains uncertain. The Indian Air Force (IAF) currently operates 31 fighter squadrons, well below the authorized 42, and needs more to face its two major adversaries.

The IAF has ordered nearly 200 Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Mk1 and Mk1A variants and has committed to 200 LCA Mk2s. However, nine years after the first IAF LCA squadrons were formed, only about 40 LCA aircraft are in service. Even with increased production to 24 aircraft per year, it will take time to meet the required numbers. India's Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) is still over a decade away, and the aging MiG 21s are still in use. The Jaguars and Mirage 2000 fleets need to retire by around 2030. Despite the push for self-reliance, India will need to induct the 114 MRFA to bridge the gap.

The initial Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) process was limited to 36 Rafale jets due to technical reasons. The IAF has specified the operational requirements for these 114 aircraft.

A recent report by the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Defence highlighted delays in delivering the initial 40 LCAs to the IAF and suggested exploring the purchase of fifth-generation fighter aircraft.

MRFA Competition

India issued a Request for Information (RFI) in April 2018 for the 114 MRFA. Responses from contenders were received later in 2018. The Indian Navy was also asked to consider new fighter jets alongside this program. The Navy needs a twin-engine fighter, focusing on the Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet and Dassault Rafale-M, likely opting for 26 Rafale-Ms.

Eight aircraft are competing for the IAF’s MRFA: Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, Boeing F-15EX Eagle II, Dassault Rafale, Eurofighter Typhoon, Lockheed Martin F-21 (a variant of the F-16V customized for India), Mikoyan MiG-35, Saab JAS-39 Gripen E/F, and Sukhoi Su-35.

The next step involves the Defence Acquisition Council's (DAC) Acceptance of Necessity (AoN) and issuing a Request for Proposal (RFP). Even if the RFP is issued today, it could take over five years for the aircraft to be inducted. India's security establishment must make an early decision on the 114 aircraft import.

Big Ticket Assessment

Russia has proposed two aircraft: the MiG-35, which did not qualify in the earlier MMRCA selection, and the new Su-35. The Su-35, part of the Su-27/30 family, is not a viable option due to India's already significant fleet of similar aircraft and planned upgrades. The Russian industry is also preoccupied with domestic demands due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

If the Indian Navy selects the Rafale-M, the interest in the F/A-18 Super Hornet will decline. India has invested in the Rafale infrastructure and modifications, suggesting that acquiring more Rafale jets, potentially making 140 (114+26) in India, is logical.

The Saab JAS-39 Gripen E/F and Eurofighter Typhoon are strong contenders. The Gripen, with its GE 414 engine, and Eurofighter, with its extensive global presence, offer good options, although geopolitical factors and technology transfer levels will influence the decision.

US Influence in India's Aircraft Ecosystem

India has already integrated several US aircraft, including the Boeing P8I, Lockheed C-130J, and others. The upcoming purchase of General Atomics MQ-9B Predator Drones further solidifies US involvement. Evaluating the F-15EX and F-21 (an advanced F-16 variant) is essential.

The F-15EX, with its impressive payload and advanced features, is a heavy, costly option, adding complexity to India’s diverse fleet. The F-21, an advanced F-16, offers in-country production potential but faces public perception challenges due to Pakistan's use of F-16s.

Conclusion

India must make a one-time purchase of 114 aircraft, ideally the same type for the IAF and Navy, with significant technology transfer and in-country production. The US is eager to integrate into India’s fighter aircraft ecosystem, reflecting geopolitical closeness. Ideally, the US should offer the F-35, addressing technical barriers like the S-400 linkage.

Balancing India's aircraft mix to reduce dependence on Russian and Western suppliers while increasing indigenous production is crucial for long-term strategic autonomy.

India and US Discuss Co-Producing Javelin Anti-Tank Missiles Amid Rising Military Cooperation

 A key weapon in Ukraine’s military arsenal, the shoulder-fired Javelin anti-armor weapon, might soon be co-produced in India if ongoing talks between New Delhi and Washington are successful. During a recent visit to India by US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, the two countries discussed various joint production proposals, including Javelin anti-tank missile systems for the Indian Army.

The Javelin, produced by Raytheon and Lockheed Martin, is a 46-pound, shoulder-fired weapon capable of penetrating any tank or mobile vehicle on the battlefield, and it can also down helicopters. The Indian Army has been seeking shoulder-fired ATGMs for almost a decade, and if discussions proceed, a local partner will be identified to establish a manufacturing plant in India.

Operated by a two-soldier team, the Javelin fires a heat-seeking missile with a range of up to 2.5 miles. Known as a “fire and forget” system, it allows soldiers to seek cover immediately after firing. The Javelin is named for its ability to strike tanks from above, like a spear, and can also directly target low-flying helicopters.

To address its anti-armor weapon needs, the Indian Army acquired Spike ATGMs from Israel in 2020 to counter Chinese aggression. Recently, India’s Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) and the Indian Army test-fired a man-portable anti-tank guided missile (MPATGM) system at the Pokhran field firing range in Rajasthan.

On April 14, 2024, the Indian Ministry of Defence announced that the MPATGM system—comprising missiles, a tripod-mounted command launch unit, a target acquisition system, and a fire-control unit—was field-evaluated in various configurations to validate its technology.

The Pentagon has supplied more than 10,000 Javelin systems to Ukraine, where experts believe the weapon significantly helped Ukrainian light infantry against Russian mechanized forces. The FGM-148 Javelin costs about $176,000 each. In August 2023, Lockheed Martin announced plans to nearly double Javelin production from 2,100 to nearly 4,000 units per year by 2026.

India and the US are discussing several joint defense projects. Previously, EurAsian Times reported a proposal to co-produce Stryker armored vehicles in India after an initial off-the-shelf purchase via the Foreign Military Sales route. However, none of these deals have been finalized yet.

Indian company Larsen and Toubro has partnered with France’s MBDA to develop missiles and weapon systems in India, including fifth-generation anti-tank guided missiles (ATGM5s), missiles for coastal batteries, and high-speed target drones. The prototype, showcased as ATGM-5 at DefExpo in Chennai, will be produced in India with complete technology transfer.

The Indian Army is actively enhancing its firepower to counter threats from both its eastern and western borders. In June 2023, it issued a Request for Information (RFI) for acquiring 5,000 fire-and-forget missiles and 500 launcher systems to be mounted on license-built BMP-2/2K ‘Sarath’ Infantry Combat Vehicles. The RFI specifies that the ATGMs should support top and direct attack modes, with the capability to penetrate at least 650 mm rolled homogeneous armor equivalent (RHAe) and explosive reactive armor (ERA).

Currently, the Indian Army uses the French-made MILAN 2T ATGM for light anti-armor warfare, capable of destroying targets up to 2 kilometers away. Another widely used system is the Russian-made 9M133 Kornet ATGM, which targets heavy armor. The Army also maintains a large stockpile of the 9M113 Konkurs system, known in NATO circles as the ‘AT-5 Spandrel’.

Additionally, India has developed an indigenous third-generation ATGM called Nag, which employs infrared homing and millimetric wave active-radar homing technologies. Nag has three versions: a vehicle-mounted version (based on the Namica launcher), a heliborne version (HeliNa), and a man-portable version (MP-ATGM).

Russia Deploys S-500 Prometheus in Crimea to Safeguard Key Assets

 Russia has reportedly deployed elements of its advanced S-500 air defense system to Crimea following successful Ukrainian strikes on the S-400 missile system. This move raises questions about whether Russia is exposing its still combat-untested system to potential Ukrainian attacks.

Currently, Russia operates only one active S-500 regiment, which consists of two battalions with two air-defense batteries each. The specifics of which elements have been moved are unclear, as such systems have multiple operational components, including command posts, radars, and launchers.

The S-500 may have been deployed to protect the critical Kerch Bridge in Crimea. This bridge, vital for connecting Crimea to mainland Russia, has been a frequent target of Ukrainian attacks. The S-500 is designed to replace the S-400 and the A-235 ABM systems, providing advanced defense against modern aerial threats, including stealth jets, hypersonic missiles, and satellites.

Ukraine continues to target Crimea, complicating Russia's efforts to maintain control. Attacks have focused on air defenses, bridges, rail links, and power supplies, including significant hits on the Kerch Bridge, impacting Russia’s ability to transport heavy military equipment.

The S-500 Prometheus is a significant leap in Russian air defense technology, boasting the ability to engage targets at ranges up to 600 kilometers. Its sophisticated radar system can track and target stealth aircraft, hypersonic missiles, and low-orbit satellites, providing a robust defensive capability.

The S-500 system includes four radar vehicles per battery and uses multiple frequencies to detect stealth aircraft. It can engage 10 targets simultaneously with a response time of three to four seconds, faster than the S-400. Its radar can detect ballistic and airborne threats at remarkable distances, with a range of up to 2,000 kilometers for ballistic targets and 800 kilometers for airborne threats.

This system can launch missiles that reach altitudes up to 200 kilometers, allowing it to intercept ballistic missiles and low-orbit satellites. Despite its capabilities, the S-500's deployment to Crimea, where it is vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes, remains a contentious decision.

Ukraine's strategy of degrading Russian air defenses continues, with significant impacts on S-300 and S-400 batteries already observed. The S-500’s deployment in Crimea marks its first known combat role, with Russia aiming to fully deploy these systems around Moscow by 2025.

Russia’s long-term plans include ringing Moscow with S-500 systems to bolster its defense against Western threats. India and China have shown interest in acquiring the S-500, with potential implications for regional security dynamics.

India, in particular, is monitoring the S-500's performance in Ukraine, considering its potential acquisition to bolster its defense against China. Effective deployment strategies, including dispersion and camouflage, will be crucial to protect such advanced systems from unconventional attacks.

Overall, the S-500 Prometheus represents a significant advancement in air defense technology, but its real-world effectiveness remains to be fully proven in the ongoing conflict dynamics.

US-India Stryker Partnership: A Game Changer for Indian Defense and China Containment

 As of November 2023, it has been disclosed that the US plans to start manufacturing Stryker armored vehicles in India. This initiative could mark the first time these vehicles are produced outside the US and play a significant role in countering China. Additionally, the US is attempting to push Russia out of the Indian air defense market by offering a license for the advanced Stryker M-SHORAD.

On June 19, Indian media reported that discussions have progressed, with India's Ministry of Defense now considering a three-phase cooperation plan with the US for producing Stryker vehicles. However, there are still various details and requests from the Indian side that need to be addressed.

The acquisition of Stryker armored vehicles depends on their ability to meet the specific needs of motorized rifle battalions. Recently, the US proposed a demonstration to showcase these vehicles' mobility and firepower in India's mountainous regions, indicating the Indian Army's requirement for vehicles adapted to challenging terrains like Eastern Ladakh and Sikkim.

One crucial demand from India is a high degree of production localization, including the transfer of critical technologies to a participating company, whether private or state-owned.

If India proceeds with the Stryker acquisition, it will follow a phased approach: starting with a limited purchase through the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) program, moving to joint production in India, and eventually developing a futuristic version of the armored vehicle. Specific details of this version are yet to be disclosed.

While these ambitious plans with the US are underway, India is also pursuing its initiatives for wheeled and tracked armored vehicles to replace its fleet of over 2,000 BMP-2s.

The Stryker Armored Fighting Vehicle (AFV) is a family of eight-wheeled armored combat vehicles produced by General Dynamics Land Systems for the US Army. Designed for versatility, the Stryker provides infantry transport, reconnaissance, and direct fire support. It measures approximately 22.92 feet in length, 8.96 feet in width, and 8.92 feet in height, with a weight ranging from 16.47 to 20.8 tons, depending on the configuration.

Powered by a Caterpillar C7 diesel engine delivering about 350 horsepower, the Stryker can reach speeds up to 60 miles per hour and has a range of around 330 miles on a full tank. Its eight-wheel drive (8×8) configuration enhances mobility across various terrains, and it is equipped with run-flat tires and a central tire inflation system for sustained operational capability even after wheel damage.

The Stryker offers advanced armor protection against small arms fire, artillery fragments, and improvised explosive devices (IEDs). It features modern communication and navigation systems to enhance situational awareness and command-and-control capabilities.

The Stryker family includes various variants, such as the Infantry Carrier Vehicle (ICV), Mobile Gun System (MGS), Reconnaissance Vehicle (RV), Commander's Vehicle (CV), Fire Support Vehicle (FSV), Engineer Squad Vehicle (ESV), Medical Evacuation Vehicle (MEV), and Anti-Tank Guided Missile Vehicle (ATGMV).

Weaponry on the Stryker AFV varies by variant, with common armaments including the M2 .50 caliber machine gun, Mk 19 40mm automatic grenade launcher, and M240 7.62mm machine gun. The MGS variant features a 105mm tank gun, while the ATGMV is equipped with TOW missile launchers.

The Stryker AFV's primary purpose is to provide a highly mobile, protected platform for transporting infantry and conducting various combat operations. Its versatility allows it to perform a wide range of missions, making it a crucial asset in modern military engagements.

Armenia Shifts Defense Strategy: Exploring Barak 8 Missile System Amidst Diversification Efforts

 

Armenia is gradually moving away from its dependence on Russian arms suppliers, adopting more favorable domestic and international policies. Notably, Armenia is showing interest in the Barak 8 surface-to-air missile system, a joint development between India and Israel, also known as LR-SAM or MR-SAM.

The Barak 8 missile system is a collaborative effort between India’s Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO) and Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI). It is designed to provide a comprehensive air defense solution against various aerial threats. The system includes multifunctional surveillance and threat alert radar, a command and control system, and mobile launchers, ensuring robust defense capabilities.

The Barak 8 missile measures approximately 4.5 meters in length and 0.225 meters in diameter, with a weight of around 275 kilograms. Its lightweight design allows deployment on various platforms, including naval ships and land-based launchers. The missile's advanced features include an active radar seeker for precise target tracking and engagement, a two-way data link for mid-course guidance updates, and a thrust vector control system that enhances agility and maneuverability.

The Barak 8 system consists of several key components and subsystems: the missile itself, a vertical launch system (VLS) for rapid deployment, the EL/M-2248 MF-STAR radar for target detection and tracking, and a command and control system for mission planning and execution. This integration ensures a comprehensive and effective air defense capability.

With an operational range of approximately 70-100 kilometers, the Barak 8 missile can engage threats at significant distances, providing wide-area coverage and enhancing the defensive perimeter of protected assets. It is effective against various aerial threats, including aircraft, helicopters, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and missiles, making it a versatile tool for modern air defense.

Armenia is seeking more modern and effective equivalents to its current surface-to-air missile systems, such as the Russian-developed S-300 system, which defends against aircraft, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles. The Armenian military also operates the highly mobile Tor-M2KM system, capable of engaging a variety of aerial threats, and the 9K33 Osa system, which provides short-range air defense against aircraft and helicopters.

Armenia has shown interest in the Akash-NG, an advanced variant of the Indian Akash missile system. However, the Indian government has not yet approved the production of the Akash-NG, meaning it might take at least three years for Armenia to acquire it. Given these circumstances, Armenia is currently favoring the MR-SAM due to its immediate availability and established production capabilities.

China to Expand Nuclear Arsenal by 90 Warheads by End of 2024

 China is set to significantly increase its nuclear warhead count by at least 90 by the end of 2024, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). SIPRI, which has been tracking global armaments for many years, reports that China's nuclear arsenal has grown from 410 warheads in 2022 to approximately 500 currently. This expansion highlights China’s rapid efforts to enhance its military power, although it still lags behind the US and Russia.

Globally, there are 3,904 nuclear warheads ready for launch, with an additional 5,681 in storage, totaling an alarming 9,585 warheads. Among smaller nuclear powers, India holds 172 warheads, Pakistan has 170, North Korea has about 50, and Israel maintains around 90. North Korea, with sufficient nuclear material, could potentially increase its arsenal to 90 warheads.

The transparency of nuclear arsenals has decreased since the US and Russia paused the New START Treaty in 2023, which previously aimed to limit these arsenals. This has contributed to an arms race, with nations enhancing their nuclear capabilities and developing new launchers and ballistic missile submarines. The ongoing investigations into Iran’s nuclear development and escalating international tensions further exacerbate the situation.

Russia and the United States currently possess the largest number of nuclear warheads, with 5,580 and 5,244 respectively. They account for nearly 90% of the world's total nuclear arsenal. Of these, 3,904 warheads are deployed on missiles and aircraft, marking an increase of 60 from the previous year. This includes 1,710 from Russia and 1,770 from the United States. China is estimated to have 24 warheads deployed on missiles.

SIPRI Director Dan Smith highlights that while the total number of nuclear warheads globally continues to decline as Cold War-era weapons are dismantled, there is an annual increase in the number of operational warheads. This trend is expected to accelerate in the coming years, raising significant concerns.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has emphasized ongoing discussions about possibly deploying additional nuclear weapons within the alliance. He underscores the need to demonstrate NATO’s nuclear capabilities to potential adversaries. Stoltenberg notes that China, Russia, and North Korea are the main challenges for NATO and points out China’s significant nuclear arsenal expansion. He forecasts that by 2030, China's nuclear stockpile could reach about 80% of the size of the US and Russian arsenals.

The production of nuclear warheads involves the extraction and refinement of fissile material, primarily uranium-235 and plutonium-239. Uranium-235 is enriched from natural uranium, while plutonium-239 is produced in nuclear reactors. The fissile material is then fashioned into a core or 'pit' surrounded by a tamper and encased in a high-explosive shell designed to compress the core to a supercritical state when detonated.

The warhead’s triggering mechanism involves conventional explosives arranged to ensure symmetrical compression of the fissile core. Advanced designs may also include a neutron initiator to ensure a rapid and sustained chain reaction. The warhead is then integrated into a delivery system, such as a missile or bomb, with rigorous testing and quality control to ensure reliability and safety. Modern warheads include sophisticated electronics for arming, fuzing, and firing, as well as safety mechanisms to prevent accidental detonation.

Throughout the production process, strict security and non-proliferation measures are enforced to prevent unauthorized use or dissemination of nuclear technology, with oversight by organizations such as the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

India to Reconsider Russian Su-57 Stealth Fighter to Counter China's J-20

 The Indian Air Force (IAF), recognized as the fourth largest air force globally, is currently without a fifth-generation fighter jet. Despite previous involvement in the Sukhoi/HAL Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) project, which was based on Russia's Sukhoi Su-57, India withdrew from the program in 2018. However, the possibility of revisiting this decision remains open.

Globally, 19 countries operate fifth-generation fighters. China uses its Chengdu J-20 ‘Mighty Dragon,’ while Russia employs the Sukhoi Su-57 ‘Felon.’ Seventeen other nations have adopted the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II, with the U.S. exclusively operating the F-22 Raptor. Only the U.S., China, and Russia have developed original fifth-generation fighters, though many nations participate in F-35 development.

The FGFA project aimed to integrate 43 enhancements proposed by India into the Su-57, including advanced sensors and avionics. The Indian variant was planned to be a two-seater, featuring a pilot and a weapon systems operator (WSO). Since stepping away from FGFA, India has focused on developing its own fifth-generation fighter, the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA). However, the Su-57 remains an option, especially given the F-35's unavailability due to India's acquisition of the Russian S-400 air defense system.

The Sukhoi Su-57 is a twin-engine, stealth multirole fighter first developed in 1999 and introduced to the Russian military in 2020. Known for its air superiority and ability to engage surface and maritime targets, the Su-57 boasts stealth features, super-maneuverability, and a large payload capacity. Despite its advanced capabilities, the Su-57 has faced technological and financial hurdles, including issues with structural integrity during early tests.

The Su-57 features a blended wing body fuselage, extensive use of composites, and advanced stealth technologies aimed at reducing radar and infrared signatures. It is equipped with sophisticated avionics, including a modular avionics system and various radar systems for enhanced situational awareness. The aircraft can deploy various countermeasures and is being tested for advanced AI and unmanned teaming technologies.

Russia's production of the Su-57 has been slow, with plans for significant expansion. Initial operational use included deployments in Syria and Ukraine, demonstrating the aircraft's capabilities in combat situations. Future developments include an upgraded Su-57M variant, a potential carrier-based version, and integration with the Okhotnik UCAV for uncrewed operations.

In contrast, China’s Chengdu J-20 ‘Mighty Dragon’ has seen rapid production, with nearly 250 units built. Designed for air superiority and precision strikes, the J-20 features advanced stealth design, powerful radar systems, and high maneuverability. The J-20’s production and deployment have outpaced the Su-57, reflecting China's growing military capabilities.

India, once a partner in the FGFA project, remains cautious about fully committing to the Su-57. Given the challenges and delays in developing the AMCA, India might reconsider the Su-57 or explore other options like the Su-75 Checkmate. However, with China's expanding J-20 fleet and potential threats from neighboring countries, India must act swiftly to ensure its air force remains competitive.

The Su-57 and J-20 will likely compete for market share in regions like Africa, West Asia, and Southeast Asia. Despite their differences, both aircraft offer cost-competitive solutions for countries seeking advanced air combat capabilities. As the global landscape of fifth-generation fighters evolves, India’s decisions will significantly impact its strategic military position.

Philippines Establishes First BrahMos Missile Base to Bolster South China Sea Defense

 

The Philippines has begun constructing its first BrahMos anti-ship missile base, strategically positioned at a naval installation facing the South China Sea. This development follows the country’s 2022 order of Indian supersonic cruise missiles, a key component of its defense modernization program aimed at updating its military capabilities amidst regional tensions with China. This $375 million deal under the Philippine Navy’s Shore-Based Anti-Ship Missile Acquisition Project includes three BrahMos missile batteries and technical support, marking the first international sale of this missile system and sparking interest from other nations like Vietnam and Indonesia.

Satellite images have revealed the construction of the BrahMos site at Philippine Naval Station Leovigildo Gantioqui in Zambales, Western Luzon. The images show new infrastructure being built on land previously used for amphibious assault and coastal defense training, with only a shed for amphibious vehicles existing before the construction began in August 2022. By May 2024, the site features buildings similar to those at Indian BrahMos bases, including a high-bay facility for missile maintenance and testing, and a magazine bunker for storage. The Philippine base is smaller, reflecting the reduced capacity of the BrahMos systems ordered by Manila, which have two missiles per launcher compared to three on Indian launchers.

Construction continues on additional structures likely intended to house the missile launchers and other command and control facilities. While missile deliveries began in April, it’s unclear if the transporter-erector-launchers have arrived. The mobile BrahMos system allows for flexible deployment, enabling batteries to relocate and avoid enemy counterstrikes while striking targets up to 300 kilometers away, including the disputed Scarborough Shoal occupied by China.

Another potential BrahMos deployment site is Camp Cape Bojeador in Burgos, Ilocos Norte, home to the Philippine Marine Corps 4th Marine Brigade. Development plans here show structures similar to those at the Zambales base, suggesting future coastal defense deployments that would cover the Luzon Strait. The Coastal Defense Regiment, operating the BrahMos, has also received land donations in Lubang and Calayan, both strategic locations for coastal defense.

Former Philippine Secretary of National Defense Delfin Lorenzana emphasized BrahMos’ deterrent capabilities in defending Philippine sovereignty, particularly in the West Philippine Sea. The Philippine Army is also considering procuring BrahMos and HIMARS systems in the next phase of military modernization, aiming to deploy more missile batteries for coastal defense. To support this high-end system, the Philippines has collaborated with the U.S. for training in modern systems and tactics, practicing combined networks to identify and strike maritime targets effectively.

Indian Air Force Bolsters Eastern Airbases Amid Rising Tensions with China

 In response to increasing tensions with China, the Indian Air Force (IAF) is upgrading infrastructure at 20 eastern airbases, enhancing capabilities to handle China-centric operations. This includes constructing hardened aircraft shelters, munitions centers, and additional runways to accommodate increased civilian traffic and ensure operational continuity in case of runway damage during conflict.

A notable upgrade is the construction of a second runway at the strategic Leh airbase in Ladakh, a region of frequent India-China military clashes. Leh airbase is essential for maintaining operations along the Line of Actual Control with China and Siachen. The base supports night operations for fighters and transport aircraft, including Rafales, MiG-29s, Sukhoi-30s, and Apaches, and is vital for transporting troops and supplies during harsh winters when road access is limited.

The IAF’s infrastructure development extends to other key bases. Satellite imagery from April 2024 revealed significant enhancements at the Chabua Air Base, near the China border. Upgrades include additional taxiways, hardened shelters for fighter aircraft, underground munitions storage, and improved taxiways for drones, ensuring sustained high-tempo operations if tensions escalate.

In Ladakh, a new 2.7-km runway at Nyoma airbase, located 23 kilometers from the China border, is set for completion in October 2024. The new runway, at an elevation of 13,700 feet, will enhance IAF operations. Support infrastructure, such as hangars, air traffic control buildings, and hard standing areas, will be ready by the end of 2025. Nyoma airstrip, operational during the 1962 India-China war, was reactivated in 2009 and has since supported various military aircraft, including the C-130J Super Hercules.

China has been ramping up its air assets along the LAC since the 2020 Galwan standoff. Recent satellite images show the deployment of China’s Chengdu J-20 Mighty Dragon 5th-generation fighter jets at Shigatse Air Base, only 150 kilometers from the LAC. The base also hosts J-10 aircraft and KJ-500 Airborne early warning and control aircraft, posing a strategic challenge to India's Rafale-equipped Hasimara Air Base in West Bengal.

The Shigatse base, with its new 3,000-meter auxiliary runway and multiple helipads, is strategically located along the central China-India border, close to the Doklam area, site of a 2017 standoff. The oblique angle of the new runway complicates enemy strikes aiming to disable both runways simultaneously.

China’s infrastructure expansion along the LAC since 2020, which includes new airbases, missile sites, roads, bridges, bunkers, and underground facilities, has significantly enhanced its military capabilities. The Hotan airbase in Xinjiang now features a new runway, additional tarmacs, hangars, and upgraded air defenses.

According to the China Power Project at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), China has upgraded dozens of airports and heliports in Tibet and Xinjiang, improving last-mile connectivity and enabling a wider range of military operations. Open-source data identifies 37 newly constructed or upgraded air facilities in these regions since 2017, with at least 22 being military or dual-use. The accelerated development in 2020, including the construction and upgrading of 14 air facilities, fills previous gaps along the Indian border, providing the PLA Air Force (PLAAF) new bases to project airpower against India.

Pakistan's Potential Nuclear Submarine Program Challenges Indian Naval Strategy

 Pakistan is considering enhancing its naval capabilities by equipping its under-construction Chinese submarines with nuclear-tipped missiles, potentially altering the strategic balance for the Indian Navy.

Delays due to fiscal constraints had postponed the acquisition of S-26 Hangor class submarines from China. Initially expected by the end of 2023, the first of these Yuan-class submarines was launched in May 2024.

Once eight of these submarines, equipped with Air-Independent Propulsion (AIP), join the Pakistan Navy, they will significantly boost the country’s offensive sea denial strategy, which emphasizes the use of submarines and missile-carrying maritime patrol aircraft. Expected to be operational by the late 2020s and early 2030s, the addition will increase the number of AIP-equipped submarines in the Pakistan Navy to 11.

Recent reports suggest that the Hangor class may not be a purely conventional attack submarine. Retired Pakistani naval officers have discussed on state television that Islamabad is aiming for an “assured” second-strike capability.

According to a Quwa report, Vice Admiral Ahmed Saeed and Rear Admiral Saleem Akhtar, both retired officials, talked about acquiring Hangor-class submarines from China. Saeed suggested these submarines would be a "hybrid," balancing conventional attack capabilities with nuclear potential.

While retrofitting the Hangor class with nuclear reactors is unlikely, Pakistan could deploy Tactical Nuclear Warheads (TNWs) on these submarines. Building nuclear-powered submarines is costly and complex, as noted by retired Commodore Anil Jai Singh, making it improbable even with Chinese assistance.

Pakistan has been developing TNWs since its first nuclear test in 1998. These smaller, portable weapons are designed for battlefield use rather than as strategic deterrents. The Hangor-class submarines will likely use a variant of the Babur-3 Sea-Launched Cruise Missile (SLCM), first tested in 2018 with a range of 450 km. The Babur-3 is a critical component of Pakistan’s “credible second-strike capability,” according to the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR).

Vice Admiral Saeed emphasized that while the Hangor class is not a dedicated nuclear platform, the Pakistan Navy seeks to fire nuclear weapons from the sea, potentially requiring just one or two dedicated submarines. However, the Hangor class would primarily manage conventional roles and only strategic duties part-time.

Commodore Singh expressed doubts about the effectiveness of a single nuclear-armed submarine in the Pakistan Navy. He suggested that China might lease one to Pakistan in the future, but this remains uncertain.

Indian Navy's Concerns

While Pakistan cannot independently design and develop a nuclear-powered submarine, it may be exploring the possibility as part of a long-term strategy. China's support in arming Pakistan with such a submarine would challenge the Indian Navy’s dominance in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). China has already been supplying submarines to Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Myanmar, creating a competitive underwater environment in the IOR.

Retired Captain Anurag Bisen highlighted that a Pakistani submarine armed with TNWs would constrain the Indian Navy's deployment of its aircraft carriers until the submarine is accounted for.

India has been adopting a flexible deterrence approach against China and Pakistan. In March, New Delhi successfully tested the long-range ballistic missile Agni-V, featuring Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicle (MIRV) technology, enhancing the survivability of its nuclear missiles.

Despite the potential threat from TNWs, Commodore Singh remains optimistic, questioning whether Pakistan has considered India's likely retaliation, as stated in its nuclear doctrine. Using TNWs is complicated and risky, making their actual deployment a significant gamble for Pakistan.