Western Sanctions Fail to Diminish Russian Military-Industrial Output Amid Ukraine Conflict

 

Despite extensive sanctions and significant efforts, Western nations have been unable to effectively undermine Russia's military-industrial complex. This issue extends beyond electronic components, which continue to reach Russia through alternative and more costly routes despite export restrictions. The production of shells, missiles, armored vehicles, and drones has surged, enabling President Vladimir Putin to persist in his aggressive campaign against a neighboring country.

Experts from the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), Jack Watling and Gary Somerville, attribute the West's failure to halt Russia’s military operations to a lack of a unified approach during the initial sanction phase, among other factors.

A significant issue is Europe’s lack of infrastructure to enforce sanctions effectively, unlike the United States. Europe has historically treated sanctions more as a regulatory tool rather than economic warfare, aiming to shame rather than significantly disrupt harmful activities.

Despite the concerted efforts of Ukraine's international allies, Russia continues to obtain nitrocellulose from Germany, Turkey, and Taiwan. Additionally, it sources other essential raw materials for explosives globally, allowing rapid escalation in ammunition production. Since the war began, Russia has significantly increased its production of:

• 152-mm artillery shells: Increasing production by 5.3 times, from 250,000 per year to an expected 1.325 million in 2024. Around 800,000 122-mm shells are expected this year.
• Grad multiple launch rocket systems: Production will increase by 15.2 times, from 33,000 to over 500,000 shells. The Uragan system will see a 6.1 times increase, from 2,800 in 2023 to 17,000 this year.
• Kh-101 cruise missiles: Production has increased from 56 units in 2021 to a projected 420 units in 2023, aiming for 460 units.
• 9M723 Iskander missiles: Production has more than tripled, rising from 50 in reserve at the start of 2023 to 180 within a year.
• Iranian Shahed-136 drones: Production has surged 6.3 times, with collaborative production in Russia and Iran now exceeding 250 units monthly.

Estimating armored vehicle production in Russia is challenging. In 2024, Russia is projected to produce around 1,500 tanks and 3,000 other armored vehicles, with 85% being refurbished from existing stocks. The production of new armored vehicles is also increasing, with the Kurgan Machine-Building Plant's BMP-3 units production recorded at 100, 108, 120, and 135 units quarterly in 2023.

Russian manufacturers have adapted to losing access to Thales’ thermal imagers from France by substituting them with Chinese and Belarusian alternatives. These conversions require machine modifications, but significant imports from the United States, Europe, Taiwan, and other countries continue, including essential software updates.

The importation of dual-use goods critical to Russia's military-industrial strength has surged since President Putin met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in March 2023, according to a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Deliveries of helicopter parts, navigation systems, and precision machinery for weapons and aircraft components have jumped from a few thousand to nearly 30,000 monthly, enabling the Kremlin to expedite the production of armaments like armored vehicles, artillery, missiles, and drones. This boost has fortified their defenses during the Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2023, explained CSIS senior fellow Max Bergmann.

Philippines Seeks Urgent Talks with China Amid South China Sea Tensions Over Sierra Madre Outpost

The Philippines is urgently seeking to schedule a call with China to address rising tensions in the South China Sea, according to the country's ambassador to the US. The conflict centers around the Sierra Madre, a decaying World War II-era ship grounded on the Second Thomas Shoal, which the Philippines uses as an outpost and resupplies monthly.

Despite a 2016 UN ruling against China's territorial claims, China asserts the area as its own and has increasingly harassed Filipino supply ships. This harassment escalated on June 17 when Chinese sailors boarded Filipino vessels, damaging equipment and injuring eight personnel. One Filipino lost his thumb, leading to a hospital visit from President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., who recently stated that a Filipino death in such confrontations would be considered "very close" to an act of war.

Such a scenario could invoke the mutual defense treaty with the US, potentially involving America in the conflict. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin affirmed America's strong commitment to the treaty but did not provide further comments.

Philippines Ambassador Jose Manuel Romualdez, speaking to reporters in Washington, noted that efforts are underway to de-escalate tensions, including scheduling a call with Chinese counterparts by early July. He emphasized the need for a frank discussion with China to reduce tensions.

Romualdez also confirmed that the Philippines has reinforced the Sierra Madre to improve conditions for stationed soldiers, despite China's objections. He reiterated that the Philippines has no plans to abandon the outpost.

On Wednesday, Austin reaffirmed America's support for the Philippines in a call with his Manila counterpart. The US and the Philippines have strengthened their security relationship over the past year, with the US gaining access to four new military sites in northern Philippines and expanding the "Balikatan" military exercise. The US also deployed a mid-range missile system to the Philippines for the first time in April.

Despite Beijing's objections, the Philippines maintains that the new security agreement is defensive. In April, the US approved a substantial security funding package, including $4 billion for the Indo-Pacific, with a significant portion likely headed to Taiwan and potentially the Philippines.

Ambassador Romualdez emphasized the need for decisive action from all parties involved to address the situation. 

US and Canadian Navies Conduct Bilateral Operations in South China Sea Amidst Tensions with China

 From June 18 to June 20, the United States Navy and the Royal Canadian Navy executed bilateral operations in the South China Sea, emphasizing their strong dedication to regional security and collaboration amid ongoing tensions between China and the Philippines.

The operations included the US Navy’s Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Ralph Johnson (DDG 114) and the Royal Canadian Navy’s Halifax-class frigate HMCS Montreal (FFH 336). These activities encompassed personnel transfers, flight operations, and replenishment at sea, supported by the Lewis-and-Clark class dry cargo ship USNS Wally Schirra (T-AKE 8).

"Close coordination with our allies and partners is paramount to success in the region," stated Capt. Justin Harts, Commander of Destroyer Squadron 15. "Demonstrating regional cooperation with the Royal Canadian Navy is key to ensuring a free and open Indo-Pacific."

Cmdr. Isaia Infante, commanding officer of the USS Ralph Johnson, underscored the importance of joint exercises, highlighting the opportunity to work closely with allies and partners and reinforce the already strong relationship with the Royal Canadian Navy. He affirmed the crew's commitment to maintaining peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific while supporting the rules-based international order.

The US Navy noted that such bilateral engagements are vital for training, exercising, and developing tactical interoperability across allied navies, enhancing collective readiness to address regional contingencies.

This operation followed a historic joint patrol involving Canada, Japan, and the US with the Philippines in the South China Sea, part of a multilateral maritime cooperation activity (MMCA) aimed at preserving freedom of navigation and overflight. Canada's increasing involvement in the region comes amid reports of aggressive maneuvers by Chinese ships targeting routine resupply missions to a vessel grounded by Manila on the disputed Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea. The Philippines has accused China of violating its sovereignty, citing the illegal presence and actions of Chinese vessels within its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).

Canada's recent joint drill with the US Navy could further strain its already fragile relations with China. Since 2018, Canada has intermittently deployed military ships, aircraft, and personnel to conduct surveillance operations to identify suspected maritime sanctions violations, particularly ship-to-ship transfer of fuel and other commodities banned by UN Security Council resolutions.

In June 2022, Canada accused Chinese fighter pilots of dangerously intercepting a Royal Canadian Air Force CP-140 maritime patrol aircraft since December 2021. Reports indicated that Chinese jets intercepted the Canadian aircraft about 60 times, with nearly 20 encounters deemed 'dangerous.' This incident sparked a diplomatic dispute between the two nations. China has consistently criticized Canada for its participation in overflights and freedom of navigation operations alongside the United States, accusing Canadian military aircraft of conducting provocative reconnaissance activities under the guise of implementing UN Security Council resolutions. China argued these activities were unauthorized and increased the risk of mishaps or conflict.

Relations deteriorated further in 2023 when Canada accused China of election interference, leading to reciprocal expulsions of diplomats. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau confirmed that China attempted to influence the 2019 and 2021 elections, though these efforts were unsuccessful. In military assessments, China and Russia were identified as Canada’s primary adversaries, highlighting the need for a robust response to hostile actions.

US to Supply Taiwan with 1000 Armed Drones Amid Rising Tensions with China

 The United States has approved a $360 million sale of over 1,000 small armed drones to Taiwan, significantly enhancing Taiwan's asymmetric defense strategy against China. The U.S. Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) announced on June 18 that Taiwan will receive 720 Switchblade drones and related fire control systems valued at $60.2 million. Additionally, Taiwan will acquire up to 291 Altius 600M loitering munitions and associated components for $300 million.

This sale comes as Taiwan awaits previously ordered military equipment, including Abrams tanks, F-16 Vipers, and advanced munitions from Washington. Despite adhering to the 'One China' principle, the U.S. is legally obligated to provide Taiwan with defensive tools against Chinese aggression. This arms sale has drawn criticism from Beijing, which accuses the U.S. of turning Taiwan into a "powder keg."

The drone sale is crucial for Taiwan's asymmetric warfare strategy, which relies on unconventional weapons to deter a Chinese invasion. Taiwan's National Defense Report emphasizes increasing resilience and self-sufficiency, prioritizing domestic defense, and enhancing its "all-out defense" capabilities.

The U.S. Indo-Pacific Command's "Hellscape" strategy aims to deploy drones to distract China during a Taiwanese invasion, allowing U.S. forces time to respond. Admiral Samuel Paparo outlined this strategy, which involves flooding the Taiwan Strait with unmanned submarines, surface ships, and aerial drones to impede a Chinese invasion fleet.

Taiwan's recent interest in drones was likely influenced by their successful use in Ukraine, where U.S.-supplied Switchblade UAVs helped repel Russian forces. Taiwan has also developed its own drones, such as the Chien Hsiang loitering munitions, capable of targeting diverse radar systems deployed by China.

The Switchblade 300, known for its low-cost, lightweight, and precision-guided capabilities, can be deployed quickly from various platforms and has a range of 30 kilometers. Its unique abort function allows it to self-destruct if necessary, minimizing casualties.

The Altius-600M loitering munition, larger than the Switchblade 300, can be launched from land, air, or sea and features multiple seekers and warhead options. It boasts twice the loitering time and range of current loitering munitions and can operate in swarms, enabling a single operator to control multiple drones simultaneously.

Taiwan thanked the U.S. for the drone sale, marking the 15th arms deal between the two since 2021. Taiwan's Presidential Office spokesperson, Karen Kuo, emphasized the importance of strengthening self-defense and asymmetric warfare capabilities to uphold democracy and international order.

White House Prioritizes Air Defense Interceptors for Ukraine Amid Ongoing Conflict

 

The United States has moved Ukraine to the top of the list for receiving air defense interceptors, a vital weapon for Ukraine’s self-defense. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby announced this adjustment during a briefing, describing it as a “difficult but necessary” decision. In the short term, Patriot and NASAMS interceptors initially destined for other countries will be redirected to Ukraine.

Kirby mentioned that this would delay deliveries to other countries currently awaiting these interceptors. However, Ukraine is expected to receive hundreds of these air defense weapons by the end of summer, which should suffice for the next 16 months. After this period, the countries waiting for their interceptors will start receiving their orders.

Kirby clarified that these countries will still receive their ordered missiles, but the delivery will be delayed. He did not specify which countries would face delays but assured that Taiwan and Israel would not be affected.

Lockheed Martin, fully funded by the U.S. Army, is producing 550 PAC-3 Missile Segment Enhancement (MSE) missiles annually and reached a production rate of 500 per year in December 2023. Although the Army has not funded further increases, Lockheed has internally invested to produce 650 interceptors annually. In 2023, Lockheed signed six letters of approval with international customers.

Nineteen countries currently use the Raytheon-made Patriot system, and this customer base is expanding. Switzerland purchased five batteries and 75 missiles in November 2022, and Romania plans to buy more units. Additionally, at least two other European countries are close to announcing Patriot purchases, with Slovakia and Germany showing interest.

This decision marks one of the most significant measures the U.S. has taken to support Ukraine since the full-scale war with Russia began two years ago. Pentagon leaders have prioritized air defense for countries backing Kyiv, as evidenced by recent actions. U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin emphasized the importance of air defense during a June press conference at NATO headquarters in Brussels, following a meeting of countries coordinating support for Ukraine.

Reports indicated that the U.S. was sending another Patriot system to Ukraine, though neither Austin nor Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. CQ Brown confirmed this. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated in June that his country needs seven Patriot systems. Germany and the Netherlands have committed to sending Patriot systems, and other countries have pledged different air defense systems like NASAMS.

Austin noted that Ukraine needs various capabilities, not just Patriots, and the interceptors to support them. Despite their importance, air defense batteries and interceptors are in short supply. The U.S. and its allies have been sourcing extra weapons to support Ukraine amid drone and missile attacks. This recent decision highlights the tight supply chain for these systems, leading to a reordering rather than an expansion of capacity.

Tom Karako, an air defense expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, emphasized the need to expand inventory, noting that funds meant to increase capacity from the April national security supplemental haven’t been spent yet. This package includes around $48 billion for military aid to Ukraine, though the amount for air defense isn’t specified.

Kirby did not detail which countries would be affected by the reshuffle but assured that Washington would minimize delays. He acknowledged that each country’s circumstances would differ based on their orders and self-defense needs.

Chinese Researchers Analyze F-35 vs. F-22: Which Stealth Fighter Poses a Greater Threat to PLAAF?

 Recently, US Indo-Pacific Command's Admiral Samuel Paparo discussed a “Hellscape” strategy to counter China, predicting a strong drone force could severely challenge any Chinese invasion of Taiwan. General Kenneth Wilsbach, Commander of the Pacific Air Forces, argued in March 2022 that using expendable unmanned aircraft against China would be more effective than deploying high-end stealth fighters like the F-35s or F-22s.

While many analysts view the F-22 Raptors as the primary threat to Beijing, Chinese researchers have a different perspective. In April last year, they conducted a study comparing the US stealth fighters F-35 and F-22, concluding that the F-35 Lightning II presents a greater threat than the F-22 Raptors.

Despite the F-22’s reputation as a formidable stealth aircraft, the study published in the Chinese-language journal Modern Defense Technology found the F-35 poses a more significant threat to Chinese military defenses. The research evaluated the impact of these aircraft during various stages of a counter-air operation near China’s coastline.

The study suggests that the F-35A, with its advanced avionics and multirole capabilities, is more adaptable and effective in potential conflicts in the Indo-Pacific region. Researchers noted that the F-35's ability to perform multiple functions and its versatility in various missions give it an edge over the F-22.

The F-35 has become a vital asset in the region due to its advanced technology and remarkable adaptability. The US and its allies operate many F-35s near China, whereas the F-22s are fewer in number and solely operated by the US Air Force, often on a rotational basis. By 2035, over 300 F-35s are expected to be deployed in the Indo-Pacific, with operators including Australia, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, and the US.

To counter the F-35 threat, Bao Junchen from the National University of Defense Technology and a team from the People’s Liberation Army’s Unit 31649 in Guangdong propose a dual strategy. They recommend enhancing electronic warfare capabilities for "soft kill" actions and developing physical weapons for "hard kill" responses. The F-35A's roles as both an intelligence-gathering sensor and a primary escort for forward attacks call for both non-destructive and destructive countermeasures.

China views the US’s penetrating counter-air operation strategy as a significant threat and is heavily investing in military capabilities to counteract US power in the Asia-Pacific. The US maintains a strong military presence in the region, with bases in Japan, South Korea, and Guam. In response, China has deployed advanced systems like the HQ-9 missile system and the J-20 stealth fighter, increasing production of the latter.

These weapons are intended to counter US air defenses and target high-value assets such as airfields and command centers. The study emphasizes that analyzing the F-22 and F-35 can help China develop effective countermeasures and protect its airspace. Additionally, the research advocates for a coordinated strategy to counter B-2 and B-1B bombers, which pose a threat when penetrating deeper into Chinese territory. A multi-dimensional approach using various platforms from air, land, sea, and space is recommended.

Although the study found the MQ-9 drone less threatening, it warned against ignoring advanced drones like the XQ-58A and RQ-180. The researchers used an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to evaluate each aircraft’s threat level, offering a nuanced assessment. However, the lack of raw data due to military sensitivity makes independent verification challenging.

Taiwan Tracks 241 Chinese Incursions in June Amid Rising Tensions and Security Breaches

 In June, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense (MND) reported tracking 241 instances of Chinese military activity, with 132 aircraft and 109 naval/coast guard vessels entering Taiwan's air and maritime zones. Between 6 a.m. on June 12 and 6 a.m. on June 13, 23 Chinese aircraft and seven naval vessels were detected near Taiwan, with 19 aircraft crossing the median line into Taiwan’s eastern and southwestern air defense identification zone (ADIZ). In response, Taiwan deployed fighters, naval ships, and coastal missile systems.

In a separate incident, a Chinese man was arrested after illegally entering Taiwanese waters on a speedboat. The man, identified as 60-year-old former Chinese navy captain Ruan, was suspected of testing Taiwan’s defenses. Despite being detected, no action was taken until the boat disrupted ferry traffic on the Tamsui River.

Taiwan’s Ocean Affairs Council Chairman, Kuan Bi-ling, described Ruan as “quite refined and well-presented.” Chinese authorities claimed Ruan acted independently and would be punished upon his return.

China views Taiwan as a renegade province and tensions are high. Taiwan’s Defense Minister, Wellington Koo, suggested the incident might be part of China’s “grey zone” tactics, which aim to exhaust the enemy without direct confrontation. Similar incidents have occurred, with Chinese fishing boats often expelled from Taiwan-controlled waters.

Taiwan’s Coast Guard Administration (CGA) faced criticism for failing to intercept Ruan’s boat, leading to the reprimand of about 10 officials. CGA Director-General Chang Chung-lung cited human error, not system flaws, as the cause. Radar operators initially mistook the speedboat for a Taiwanese fishing vessel.

China’s frequent incursions and the recent speedboat incident highlight the growing tension and the need for vigilant defense measures around Taiwan’s waters.

USS Connecticut Submarine Accident Highlights Detection Vulnerabilities in South China Sea

 

The USS Connecticut, a Seawolf-class nuclear attack submarine, encountered a significant mishap during a classified mission in October 2021, revealing vulnerabilities despite its advanced stealth technology. This incident, which took place in the South China Sea (SCS), led to extensive investigations aiming to uncover the reasons behind the accident.

On the fateful day, the USS Connecticut struck a seamount while cruising at high speed in the northern SCS, tarnishing the reputation of one of the US Navy's most powerful and expensive submarines. The incident prompted calls for a thorough investigation, especially given China's criticism of the US's opaqueness and irresponsibility regarding the event's specifics.

A recent Chinese study, led by engineer Li Yuhang of the 713th Research Institute of China State Shipbuilding Corporation, provided new insights. The researchers used real-world data from Chinese sensors in the SCS to examine water surface wakes. Published in the Chinese Journal of Theoretical and Applied Mechanics on May 27, the study found that submarines like the SSN-22, traveling at depths of 100 meters and speeds over 20 knots, can create detectable surface ripples, potentially revealing their position.

This groundbreaking finding challenged previous assumptions about modern submarine invincibility and highlighted the delicate balance of power in the region. The study's results were the first to use real SCS data to systematically analyze the water surface response to submarine movement.

The US Navy's investigation into the accident identified multiple failures in navigation planning, execution, and risk management as the cause. The investigation revealed that the USS Connecticut’s navigation review team had failed to identify and mark at least ten underwater hazards and had incorrectly assessed the operating area as open. This led to a significant period of inactivity for the submarine due to damage, with eleven sailors sustaining minor injuries.

The incident also reignited US-China tensions over territorial claims in the South China Sea. On October 2, 2021, the USS Connecticut struck an object in international waters during China's National Day celebrations, coinciding with heightened military drills by the People's Liberation Army (PLA) near Taiwan. The PLA's air activity saw a significant increase, escalating tensions further.

Technological advancements in wake detection have also played a role in understanding the incident. Recent progress in AI and anti-submarine radar technology, including the development of a 6G radar capable of detecting minute submarine ripples, has improved the ability to locate submarines. Chinese researchers reported a 96 percent accuracy rate in detecting submarine wakes using AI, highlighting the growing sophistication of detection systems.

In conclusion, the USS Connecticut's collision has underscored the evolving dynamics of undersea warfare, where stealth alone is no longer sufficient. The incident has marked a significant moment in the race for technological superiority in the challenging environment of the South China Sea, influencing the future of submarine operations.

US Admiral Reveals “Hellscape” Drone Warfare Strategy to Counter China’s Taiwan Invasion Plan

 

The United States is developing a strategy to deploy a vast array of drones to counter a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan. This plan, referred to as the "Hellscape" strategy, aims to use drones to overwhelm and distract Chinese forces, buying crucial time for US and allied forces to mount a full-scale response.

Admiral Samuel Paparo, the commander of US Indo-Pacific Command, outlined this approach at the International Institute for Strategic Studies’ Shangri-La Dialogue Summit. The strategy involves deploying thousands of unmanned submarines, surface ships, and aerial drones as soon as China’s invasion fleet begins crossing the 100-mile Taiwan Strait.

China recently conducted military drills following the inauguration of Taiwan’s new president, intensifying its calls for reunification with Taiwan. US President Joe Biden has hinted at military support for Taiwan in the event of an invasion, which could escalate into a larger US-China conflict involving Washington's regional allies. This makes it essential for the US to develop effective countermeasures against Chinese forces in the Taiwan Strait.

The "Hellscape" strategy heavily relies on autonomous systems, a tactic influenced by the recent war in Ukraine. In Ukraine, drones have been used to launch strikes on control centers, refineries, airfields, and ships, demonstrating that modern air defenses are not impenetrable. This has reshaped how militaries approach modern warfare, with a focus on cost-effective, reusable, and disposable drone technology.

General Kenneth Wilsbach, Commander of the Pacific Air Forces, initially proposed using "attritable" unmanned aircraft against China instead of high-end stealth fighters like the F-35s or F-22s. These lower-cost, disposable drones would serve as decoys, gradually wearing down Chinese defenses by creating numerous targets.

The Pentagon is actively working on this drone warfare strategy, planning to spend $1 billion on the Replicator program this fiscal year. This program aims to rapidly scale and deploy thousands of autonomous systems within the next 18 to 24 months, utilizing AI, robotics, and commercial technology. The Pentagon is also collaborating with defense partners to develop and procure these critical systems.

Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks emphasized the need to counter China’s mass with a mass of drones that are more challenging to target. The US Navy is also working on developing swarming drones, including underwater drones, to counter the numerical superiority of the Chinese PLA Navy in the Indo-Pacific region.

Admiral Paparo highlighted the strategic advantage of US unmanned capabilities, stating that these systems would amplify US advantages in the region. He noted that recent Chinese military drills appeared to be rehearsals for a Taiwan invasion, which the US observed and learned from.

In response to these developments, China has expressed dissatisfaction. The state-owned Global Times criticized the US strategy, suggesting it was a desperate attempt to maintain its dominance and incite Taiwan’s independence efforts.

US Navy Boosts China Surveillance with Second MQ-4C Triton Deployment to Okinawa

 

The US Navy has significantly increased its surveillance capabilities in the Asia-Pacific region by deploying a second MQ-4C Triton maritime surveillance aircraft to Japan’s Kadena Air Base in Okinawa. This move follows the earlier deployment of several MQ-9 Reaper drones, enhancing intelligence gathering in the area.

According to an official from Japan’s Ministry of Defense, the second Triton arrived at Kadena Air Base at 3:40 p.m. on June 9. This follows the first MQ-4C Triton’s arrival on May 20, both temporarily relocated from Guam. Japanese media images show both aircraft stationed in the Navy's tarmac hangar shortly after the second aircraft's arrival.

The Tritons will be stationed at Kadena from May to October, supported by approximately 50 personnel. Since October, eight MQ-9 Reaper drones have also been deployed at Kadena, highlighting the base's critical role due to its strategic location, within three hours' flight time from Beijing, Seoul, and Taipei.

Kadena Air Base, the largest US Air Force base in the Asia-Pacific region, regularly hosts advanced fighter jets, with recent rotations including F-35 Lightning IIs, F-22 Raptors, US F-16s, and F-15E Strike Eagles. The base is also increasing its unmanned aerial vehicle presence to bolster reconnaissance and surveillance efforts.

The Okinawa Times, referencing the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), reported that the second MQ-4C Triton was scheduled for a flight around Okinawa’s main island on June 9. However, this plan was withdrawn shortly after the aircraft's arrival.

The deployment has sparked controversy, with local governments and the Okinawa Prefecture opposing the indefinite presence of MQ-9 drones and the temporary deployment of MQ-4C Tritons. The Kadena Town Council expressed concerns about potential aircraft accidents due to the rising number of US military assets at the base.

The MQ-4C Triton, developed by Northrop Grumman, is distinct from the RQ-4 Global Hawk, designed to withstand bird strikes and lightning, and capable of close-range maritime observation. Equipped with advanced sensors, the Triton can provide precise targeting information to naval assets, enhancing operational reach.

With two MQ-4C Tritons now operational at Kadena, the US military is set to intensify surveillance in regions where China is increasingly active. Drones will undertake intelligence missions in the Nansei region and surrounding areas, crucial maritime territories stretching from Kyushu to Taiwan.

China has escalated maritime challenges in the East and South China Seas, with frequent coast guard incursions into Japanese-claimed waters around the Senkaku Islands. Japan views these actions as attempts to undermine its sovereignty over the islands. The enhanced surveillance capabilities provided by the drones are crucial for monitoring and asserting control over these contested areas without provocation.

US Navy and Taiwan Conduct Unplanned Military Exercises in West Pacific Amid Rising Tensions with China

 

In an unannounced move showcasing growing maritime cooperation, the U.S. and Taiwan conducted impromptu military exercises in the West Pacific. This development comes amid rising tensions between Taiwan and China, ahead of the inauguration of Taiwan's president-elect, Lai Ching-te. According to unnamed sources cited by Reuters, the drills took place during routine naval encounters.

One source mentioned the involvement of “multiple military assets,” while another highlighted that these exercises were unofficially termed “unplanned sea encounters,” implying a tacit agreement that these drills were coincidental rather than premeditated.

These exercises occurred between a series of scheduled high-profile drills. In mid-April, the U.S. conducted a trilateral exercise with Japanese Maritime Self Defense Force (JMSDF) and Republic of Korea Navy (ROKN) vessels, focusing on interoperability and warfighting capabilities. Shortly after, the Balikatan 24 exercise in the Philippines involved the U.S., Philippine, Australian, and French forces, concentrating on counter-landing operations and maritime domain awareness.

During the unplanned U.S.-Taiwan drills, around six ships, including supply vessels and frigates, engaged in basic communications, resupply operations, and joint anti-submarine warfare (ASW) exercises. These drills are critical for ensuring operational compatibility between the two navies in emergencies, involving tactical maneuvers and underwater target searches.

Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense spokesperson, Major General Sun Li-fang, stated that the exercises adhered to the Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea (CUES), which manages interactions between different militaries at sea. This protocol was previously utilized in 2016 during an encounter between the USS Chafee and three ROCN ships.

The disclosure of these exercises follows Taiwanese Chief of General Staff Admiral Mei Chia-shu’s visit to the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (USINDOPACOM) change of command ceremony in Hawaii in early May. Shortly after, China conducted significant military exercises around Taiwan, labeled “Joint Sword-2024A,” which involved near-encirclement maneuvers similar to those after Nancy Pelosi's visit in 2022.

In late May, the U.S. began Tiger Strike 2024 with Malaysia, focusing on amphibious warfare and multi-domain awareness. Early June saw the announcement of the “Freedom Edge” exercise, a first-time trilateral drill involving the U.S., Japan, and South Korea.

These high-profile activities in the West Pacific lead up to the Rim of the Pacific 2024 (RIMPAC 24) exercises, scheduled from June 28 to August 2, involving 29 nations, 40 surface ships, 3 submarines, 14 national land forces, over 150 aircraft, and more than 25,000 personnel. The Italian carrier Cavour and a French Navy FREMM air defense frigate will also participate.

China's Expanding 'Carrier Killer' Missiles: A Strategic Threat to US Naval Dominance

 In the midst of global tensions, China's military posturing towards Taiwan intensifies, paralleled by Russia's war against Ukraine. Recently, China's "Joint Sword – 2024A" exercises followed closely after Lai Ching-te's inauguration as Taiwan's President, whom Beijing labels a "separatist."

During these drills, warships patrolled near Taiwan's coast, signaling potential invasion threats that could disrupt the technology supply chain, trigger economic crises, and escalate to a US-China conflict. Beijing justified the drills as a response to Lai's assertion that Taiwan and China are "not subordinate to each other." Taiwan's defense forces tracked 49 Chinese aircraft, 19 naval ships, and 7 coast guard vessels near its waters, indicating the growing threat. Most of these ships were frigates and corvettes with lighter weapon loads.

As tensions rise, the US is preparing for potential conflict. A delegation of US lawmakers has shown support for Taiwan in response to China's extensive military drills. In April 2024, Rear Adm. Mike Studeman, a former US Navy intelligence leader, warned that China's military is preparing for an invasion or blockade of Taiwan within the next decade.

China insists that nations cannot maintain official relations with both China and Taiwan, leading Taiwan to have formal diplomatic ties with only a few countries. The US, while being Taiwan's most crucial ally, does not officially recognize Taiwan, adhering to the one-China principle.

Comparison of Naval Capabilities

As of 2024, China has the world's second-largest navy by total displacement, following the US Navy, and the largest number of active service ships. A report from the US Congressional Research Service highlights that China's navy is the largest in East Asia and surpassed the US Navy in battle force ships between 2015 and 2020. Currently, China has over 370 battle force platforms, including major surface combatants, submarines, amphibious ships, mine warfare ships, aircraft carriers, and fleet auxiliaries. By 2025, this force is projected to grow to 395 ships, reaching 435 by 2030.

China operates two aircraft carriers, the Liaoning and Shandong, with the third and most advanced, the Fujian, starting sea trials in May 2024. In contrast, the US Navy had 292 battle force ships as of January 29, 2024, with a projected fleet of 290 ships by FY2030.

In a potential naval conflict, China would need to reposition military assets to its eastern coast and prepare for an invasion, while using its anti-ship firepower to keep US warships at bay. China's arsenal of anti-ship missiles (ASMs) is central to its strategy to deny US forces access to the Western Pacific.

China’s Anti-Ship Missiles (ASM)

China has significantly expanded its anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs), sometimes called "carrier killers." Key missiles in China’s arsenal include the YJ-12, YJ-18, YJ-83, DF-21, and DF-26.

YJ-83: A modern addition to China's anti-ship arsenal, deployed on surface ships and multirole aircraft. It’s a smaller, shorter-range missile typically housed in box launchers on Chinese frigates and corvettes.

YJ-18: A cruise missile for anti-ship and land-attack roles, derived from the Russian 3M-54E "Klub" missile, and the only widely deployed ASM that can be launched from vertical launch cells. It’s installed on large surface combatants and submarines.

YJ-12: Compatible with various platforms, including bombers and coastal launchers, the YJ-12 can engage warships from long distances.

DF-26: An Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missile (IRBM) that provides high speed and long range, earning the "carrier killer" nickname. It can target beyond aircraft carriers.

DF-21D: A medium-range ballistic missile operational since 2012, designed specifically to target ships at sea, reaching speeds up to Mach 10 during the terminal phase.

China's anti-ship missile capabilities aim to deny US warships access to the region, leveraging Taiwan's proximity to offset American naval dominance.

Taiwan's Strategic Position

As tensions over Taiwan escalate, its strategic position within the "first island chain" becomes crucial. Controlling this link would bolster China's influence in the Western Pacific, challenge US dominance, and give Beijing control over Taiwan's semiconductor manufacturing industry. Given Taiwan's role in maritime trade routes and its semiconductor industry, neither the US nor its allies can afford to let Taiwan fall into Beijing's orbit.

Taiwan Revives Advanced Frigate Program for Enhanced Defense in Taiwan Strait

 

Taiwan's military has decided to revive its "New Generation Frigate" program, driven by the defense needs of the Taiwan Strait. This decision was reported by local media LTN on May 25, 2024, citing a high-level government official. The new frigates are expected to have a displacement of 6,000 tons and will feature U.S.-made AN/SPY-7 active phased array radar. The official mentioned that the Taiwanese navy initially aimed to develop a 4,500-ton vessel with capabilities comparable to larger ships, but this proved overly optimistic.

According to another local source, UP MEDIA, the navy realized that a 4,500-ton vessel could not accommodate all the necessary weapon systems and equipment for modern warfare, including anti-air, anti-surface, and anti-submarine operations. The New Generation Frigate program was originally part of a 12-item force building plan announced by the Republic of China (ROC) Navy in 2016. At the 2017 TADTE defense exhibition, a scale model of the frigate was displayed, highlighting its enhanced joint operational capabilities and resilience against heavy attacks. However, there was confusion regarding whether the frigate would feature the Aegis Combat System, as the term was used inconsistently in various descriptions.

The U.S. has not confirmed if it will sell the Aegis Combat System to Taiwan, and the Taiwanese navy’s definition of “Aegis” remains unclear. For instance, in a 2018 parliamentary session, a deputy head of NCSIST explained that an “Aegis ship” refers to a warship equipped with an electronic scanning array (ESA).

China Warns Taiwan Independence Supporters of 'Self-Destruction' at Shangri-La Dialogue

 

After meeting U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, China’s new defense minister, Adm. Dong Jun, appeared amicable, even sharing tips on the best places to see pandas in China. However, his tone shifted dramatically two days later during the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, a prominent defense summit.

In a stern speech, Dong warned that those supporting Taiwan's independence would face "self-destruction" and stated that the likelihood of "peaceful reunification" with Taiwan was diminishing. His speech reflected China's dual strategy at the summit: reassuring other nations of its responsible behavior while firmly asserting its stance on Taiwan and the South China Sea.

Rory Medcalf, head of the National Security College at Australian National University, described Dong's address as the "most consistently intimidating speech" from China at the summit. A U.S. official echoed this sentiment, calling the speech "tone deaf" and highlighting global concerns about China's coercive activities in the region.

China's recent actions include military activities around the Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea, where Chinese Coast Guard vessels have harassed Philippine resupply missions. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has warned that any Filipino deaths resulting from such actions would be considered an act of war, potentially drawing the U.S. into the conflict due to its mutual defense treaty with the Philippines.

During the conference, other leaders also criticized China. U.S. Defense Secretary Austin reiterated that conflict is neither "imminent nor unavoidable," while Australia's Defense Minister Richard Marles emphasized that China's growing power would attract greater scrutiny.

Despite resuming military talks with the U.S. after a two-year hiatus, China's actions around Taiwan remain aggressive. Dong cited "external interfering forces," referring to the U.S. and its allies, for escalating tensions in the region. During a Q&A session, Dong defended China's actions, claiming those seeking Taiwanese independence were testing China's "red lines."

Dong's speech concluded with a mix of defiance and humor, highlighting the charged atmosphere at the Shangri-La Dialogue.