Pakistan's Potential Nuclear Submarine Program Challenges Indian Naval Strategy

 Pakistan is considering enhancing its naval capabilities by equipping its under-construction Chinese submarines with nuclear-tipped missiles, potentially altering the strategic balance for the Indian Navy.

Delays due to fiscal constraints had postponed the acquisition of S-26 Hangor class submarines from China. Initially expected by the end of 2023, the first of these Yuan-class submarines was launched in May 2024.

Once eight of these submarines, equipped with Air-Independent Propulsion (AIP), join the Pakistan Navy, they will significantly boost the country’s offensive sea denial strategy, which emphasizes the use of submarines and missile-carrying maritime patrol aircraft. Expected to be operational by the late 2020s and early 2030s, the addition will increase the number of AIP-equipped submarines in the Pakistan Navy to 11.

Recent reports suggest that the Hangor class may not be a purely conventional attack submarine. Retired Pakistani naval officers have discussed on state television that Islamabad is aiming for an “assured” second-strike capability.

According to a Quwa report, Vice Admiral Ahmed Saeed and Rear Admiral Saleem Akhtar, both retired officials, talked about acquiring Hangor-class submarines from China. Saeed suggested these submarines would be a "hybrid," balancing conventional attack capabilities with nuclear potential.

While retrofitting the Hangor class with nuclear reactors is unlikely, Pakistan could deploy Tactical Nuclear Warheads (TNWs) on these submarines. Building nuclear-powered submarines is costly and complex, as noted by retired Commodore Anil Jai Singh, making it improbable even with Chinese assistance.

Pakistan has been developing TNWs since its first nuclear test in 1998. These smaller, portable weapons are designed for battlefield use rather than as strategic deterrents. The Hangor-class submarines will likely use a variant of the Babur-3 Sea-Launched Cruise Missile (SLCM), first tested in 2018 with a range of 450 km. The Babur-3 is a critical component of Pakistan’s “credible second-strike capability,” according to the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR).

Vice Admiral Saeed emphasized that while the Hangor class is not a dedicated nuclear platform, the Pakistan Navy seeks to fire nuclear weapons from the sea, potentially requiring just one or two dedicated submarines. However, the Hangor class would primarily manage conventional roles and only strategic duties part-time.

Commodore Singh expressed doubts about the effectiveness of a single nuclear-armed submarine in the Pakistan Navy. He suggested that China might lease one to Pakistan in the future, but this remains uncertain.

Indian Navy's Concerns

While Pakistan cannot independently design and develop a nuclear-powered submarine, it may be exploring the possibility as part of a long-term strategy. China's support in arming Pakistan with such a submarine would challenge the Indian Navy’s dominance in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). China has already been supplying submarines to Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Myanmar, creating a competitive underwater environment in the IOR.

Retired Captain Anurag Bisen highlighted that a Pakistani submarine armed with TNWs would constrain the Indian Navy's deployment of its aircraft carriers until the submarine is accounted for.

India has been adopting a flexible deterrence approach against China and Pakistan. In March, New Delhi successfully tested the long-range ballistic missile Agni-V, featuring Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicle (MIRV) technology, enhancing the survivability of its nuclear missiles.

Despite the potential threat from TNWs, Commodore Singh remains optimistic, questioning whether Pakistan has considered India's likely retaliation, as stated in its nuclear doctrine. Using TNWs is complicated and risky, making their actual deployment a significant gamble for Pakistan.

JF-17 Outshines LCA Tejas in Export Market: India and Pakistan Unveil Advanced Fighter Jets

 The skies over the Indian subcontinent are heating up as India and Pakistan introduce their latest supersonic fighter jets, the Tejas Mk 1A and the JF-17 Block III, both competing for regional air supremacy and a share in the global market for cost-effective combat jets.

India and Pakistan's New Fighter Jets

The Indian Air Force (IAF) is set to receive the upgraded Tejas Mk 1A by July, while the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) recently incorporated the JF-17 Block III in December 2023. These aircraft represent advanced iterations of their predecessors and are designed for a variety of military missions.

Production and Evolution

The Tejas, developed by India’s Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA) and Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), and the JF-17, a product of the Sino-Pakistani partnership between the Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC) and China’s Chengdu Aircraft Industry Complex (CAC), are both classified as 4.5-generation aircraft, with the JF-17 Block III described as “fourth-generation plus.”

Budget-Friendly Powerhouses

Both the Tejas Mk 1A and the JF-17 Block III are single-engine, lightweight, multirole fighters designed to replace aging fleets—India’s MiG-21 and Pakistan’s assortment of Chinese and French jets. The Tejas Mk 1A completed its first test flight on March 28, 2024, while the JF-17 Block III had its inaugural flight on December 15, 2019.

Specifications and Features

The Tejas Mk 1A boasts advanced technology, including new electronics, processors, and fly-by-wire hardware, with approximately nine hard points for various weaponry. The JF-17 Block III features superior maneuverability, extended range, advanced electronics, and the NRIET/CETC KLJ-7A AESA radar.

Cost and Export Potential

The Tejas Mk 1A development has a reported budget of $5.9 billion, while the JF-17 Block III costs around $55 million per unit, as indicated by Iraq’s interest in purchasing 12 units for $664 million. The JF-17 has been exported to countries like Nigeria and Myanmar, with potential deals with Azerbaijan and Iraq. Meanwhile, despite negotiations with Malaysia and Argentina, the Tejas has yet to secure export orders.

Future Developments

The PAF plans to develop the JF-17 PFX, continuing the evolution of the JF-17 series. India aims to expedite the delivery of the Tejas Mk 1A to pave the way for the LCA Mk 2, featuring more capable engines and extended flight duration. The first squadron of Tejas Mk 1A is planned for deployment at the Nal air base in Rajasthan’s Bikaner district.

As these advanced fighter jets take to the skies, the rivalry between India and Pakistan intensifies, setting the stage for an electrifying aerial showdown.

Myanmar Rebels Disrupt India's Sittwe Port Development Amid China-Backed Conflict

 The Sittwe Port project, crucial for India's regional connectivity with Myanmar, faces uncertainty due to escalating conflict in Myanmar, primarily involving the Arakan Army (AA), suspected to be backed by China.

Originally intended to boost trade between India and Myanmar, the port's $120-million development funded by India now struggles amidst clashes between Myanmar's military and AA rebels.

Strategically located in Rakhine state, Sittwe Port was envisioned to link India's Kolkata port with Myanmar's maritime routes, fostering bilateral trade and economic growth. However, recent AA advancements, including capturing key areas like Paletwa, have impeded progress.

The conflict's repercussions extend beyond India and Myanmar, affecting neighboring Bangladesh, which stood to benefit from Sittwe Port's operationalization.

Speculations arise regarding China's support for the AA, posing concerns for India's strategic interests in Myanmar. Reports suggest Chinese backing for AA aims to safeguard Chinese investments, potentially hindering India's infrastructure projects in the region.

Despite challenges, India continues its regional engagement, albeit with setbacks, as demonstrated by the recent withdrawal of a major Indian private entity, Adani Ports, from a venture in Myanmar.

Meanwhile, China expands its economic presence along Myanmar's coast, exemplified by agreements to operationalize Kyaukphyu Port, bolstering its broader economic and geopolitical strategy in Southeast Asia.

U.S. sees momentum on South China Sea code---------Defense News

WASHINGTON — The United States said on June 27 it saw momentum in talks between China and Southeast Asia on agreeing to a code of conduct to ease deep friction over competing claims in the South China Sea.
The South China Sea is likely to be high on the agenda when U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton heads next month to Cambodia for talks of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and regional powers including China.
Kurt Campbell, the U.S. assistant secretary of state for East Asia, said he understood that a draft proposal on a code of conduct was being discussed and that the United States expected to hear more details while in Cambodia.
“What we have seen of late has been an increase in diplomacy between ASEAN and China about aspects associated with a potential code of conduct,” Campbell told a conference at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“I will say that we are frankly impressed with the level of focus that particularly ASEAN has given to this,” Campbell said.
Campbell did not give more details on the potential code of conduct and acknowledged that disputes over the South China Sea are “fraught with difficulty.”
“They spur nationalist sentiment across the region as a whole and it is extraordinarily important to deal with them with great delicacy,” he said.
ASEAN and China agreed in 2002 to negotiate a code of conduct. But there has been little visible progress, with a rising China preferring to negotiate with each country individually instead of dealing with a unified bloc.
ASEAN foreign ministers, meeting in April in Phnom Penh, said they hoped to narrow differences and sign a code of conduct with China by the end of the year.
The Philippines and Vietnam accuse China of aggressively asserting its claims in recent years, leading to minor clashes that diplomats and military commanders fear could quickly escalate into major conflicts.
The United States have recently expanded military relations with the Philippines and Vietnam, part of what President Barack Obama’s administration has cast as a growing U.S. focus on relations with Asia.
The details of the code of conduct remained murky. U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, speaking to the annual Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore on June 2, said the code should set a binding “rules-based framework” to prevent and manage disputes.
At the annual ASEAN talks in 2010 in Vietnam, Clinton said the United States had a “national interest” in open access to the South China Sea, through which half of the world’s trade flows.
Her statement generated a wide response in Asia, with Southeast Asian nations largely welcoming the remarks and stepping up cooperation with the United States but China accusing her of fanning tensions.
Campbell said Clinton was also looking to visit Laos. If confirmed, the trip would be the first by a U.S. secretary of state to Laos since the communist victory in 1975.
The United States established normal trade ties with Laos in 2004 and has been studying ways to clean up ordnance. The United States dropped millions of bombs on Laos during the Vietnam War to cut off Hanoi’s supply lines.
U.S. relations with Laos have remained uneasy largely due to concerns over treatment of the Hmong, a hill people who assisted U.S. forces during the Vietnam War and have reported persecution afterward.
One signature effort of the Obama administration has been reaching out to another long-isolated nation — Myanmar.
The country formerly known as Burma has undertaken dramatic reforms since last year including allowing elections in which opposition icon Aung San Suu Kyi won a seat in parliament.
U.S. senators said Wednesday that they expected soon to confirm Derek Mitchell as the first U.S. ambassador to Myanmar in more than 20 years.

China Eyes Navy Stop in Seychelles

BEIJING - China has said it may use the Seychelles as a naval supply stop while conducting anti-piracy missions, at the invitation of the Indian Ocean island state.

The announcement comes at a time of growing Indian concern about China's influence in the strategically important Indian Ocean, a vital shipping lane connecting Asia to Europe and the Middle East.

"According to escort needs and the needs of other long-distance missions, China will consider taking supplies or recuperating at appropriate ports in the Seychelles and other countries," the defense ministry said in a statement Dec. 12. The invitation was extended earlier this month during a visit to the Seychelles by Chinese Defense Minister Liang Guanglie.

Beijing has funded or plans to invest in several major infrastructure projects in the Indian Ocean, including ports in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Myanmar.

Reports in China's state-run media quoted military experts as saying the move did not equate to establishing an overseas military base.

China has been heavily involved in anti-piracy missions in the Gulf of Aden off the coast of Somalia and in the Indian Ocean.

Since 2008, China has sent 10 escort missions and more than 8,000 military personnel to the Gulf of Aden, escorting more than 4,300 vessels in the process, the official China Daily said.

Concern Over New Landmine Use as Summit Ends

PHNOM PENH - Over 100 nations hailed global progress on landmine eradication on Dec. 2 but voiced "deep concern" over the fresh use of the weapon in four countries as a large anti-mine summit ended in Cambodia.

Signatories to the 1997 Anti-Personnel Mine Ban Convention expressed "deep concern about new use of anti-personnel mines" in a text adopted after a week-long gathering in the capital Phnom Penh.

It comes after campaigners said last month that Israel, Libya and Syria had joined longstanding offender Myanmar in recently laying the deadly explosives.

Their actions pushed the worldwide use of landmines to a seven-year high in 2011, according to the International Campaign to Ban Landmines (ICBL).

But member states at the meeting also noted "significant progress" made by several nations to live up to the Ottawa Treaty, which bans the use, stockpiling, production and transfer of anti-personnel mines.

Burundi and Nigeria both announced they were mine-free after completing their land clearance obligations, while Turkey said it had fully destroyed its stockpile of some 3 million landmines, after missing an earlier deadline.

Finland was also singled out for praise after it said it was on the verge of becoming the 159th state to join the convention. Somalia is expected to follow in the coming months.

Meanwhile, Myanmar, which has not joined the treaty, encouraged campaigners by taking part in the summit as an observer, suggesting the country was open for dialogue on its stubborn use of the weapon.

Experts warned that many challenges remained as landmines and explosive remnants of war caused 4,191 new casualties in 2010 globally, including more than 1,000 deaths, according to the ICBL.

Delegates vowed to keep up demining efforts despite "difficult financial times".

"In the midst of global economic turmoil there is a concern that states will forget they have an obligation to support each other," Kerry Brinkert, director of the secretariat of the convention, told AFP.

Host country Cambodia, one of the world's most mine-affected places, was promised more funding by Austria and New Zealand.

Cambodia received $24.3 million in aid for its demining activities last year, down from $33.3 million in 2009.

Clinton Urges Myanmar to Sever 'Illicit Ties' with North Korea

NAYPYIDAW - U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Dec. 1 called on Myanmar to cut "illicit ties" with North Korea and said the regime had given assurances that it was not cooperating with Pyongyang.

"I was frank that better relations with the United States will only be possible if the entire government respects the international consensus against the spread of nuclear weapons," Clinton told reporters.

"We look to Naypyidaw to honor U.N. Security Council Resolutions 1718 and 1874 and sever illicit ties with North Korea," she added.

President Thein Sein gave "strong assurances" that Myanmar would abide by the U.N. resolutions, which ban weapons exports from North Korea, Clinton said during a landmark visit to the isolated capital Naypyidaw.

Her aides have, however, played down defectors' accounts of nuclear cooperation between the two authoritarian countries, saying the top U.S. concern relates to missile technology.

Thein Sein also said that Myanmar was "strongly considering signing the IAEA additional protocol and that they are already engaged in dialogue with the IAEA", according to a senior State Department official speaking on condition of anonymity.

The IAEA, or the International Atomic Energy Agency, is the nuclear watchdog of the United Nations. Signing its additional protocol would allow the IAEA to carry out inspections of suspected clandestine nuclear sites.

Allegations of nuclear cooperation between Myanmar and North Korea have been a top concern for U.S. lawmakers.

Republican Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, a frequent critic of President Barack Obama who heads the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said that the weapons concerns made U.S. outreach to Myanmar problematic.

"Secretary Clinton's visit represents a monumental overture to an outlaw regime whose DNA remains fundamentally brutal," she said in a statement in Washington.

U.S. Stops North Korean Ship Over Arms Fears

SEOUL - The U.S. Navy intercepted a North Korean ship suspected of carrying missiles or other weapons to Myanmar and made it turn back, a senior U.S. official said June 13.
The comments by Gary Samore, special assistant to President Barack Obama on weapons of mass destruction, confirmed reports of the incident, which happened last month, in The New York Times and South Korean media.

The New York Times said the ship was intercepted south of the Chinese city of Shanghai by a U.S. destroyer on May 26.
In an interview with Yonhap news agency, Samore identified the cargo ship as the M/V Light and said it may have been bound for Myanmar with military-related contraband, such as small arms or missile-related items.
"We talked directly to the North Koreans. We talked directly to all the Southeast Asian countries including Myanmar, urging them to inspect the ship if it called into their port," he was quoted as saying.
"The U.S. Navy also contacted the North Korean ship as it was sailing, to ask them where they were going and what cargo they were carrying."
North Korea is subject to international and United Nations sanctions designed to curb its missile and nuclear programs. UN Resolution 1874, adopted in June 2009, one month after the North's second nuclear test, toughened a weapons embargo and authorized member states to intercept such shipments.
Another North Korean ship, the Kang Nam I, was forced to reverse course in 2009 after being suspected of trying to deliver military-related supplies to Myanmar.
The New York Times said the Light was registered in Belize, whose authorities gave the United States permission to inspect the ship.
It said the U.S. destroyer McCampbell caught up with the Light somewhere south of Shanghai and asked to board the vessel under the authority given by Belize.
The paper, quoting unidentified U.S. officials, said the North Korean refused four times. But a few days later, it stopped dead in the water and turned back to its home port, tracked by U.S. surveillance planes and satellites.
"Such pressure from the international community drove North Korea to withdraw the ship," Samore was quoted by Yonhap as saying. "This is a good example that shows that international cooperation and coordination can block the North's weapon exports."
The United States has frequently expressed concern at military ties between Myanmar and North Korea.
Last month Deputy U.S. Assistant Secretary for East Asia and Pacific Affairs Joseph Yun expressed concern directly to Myanmar's new army-backed government, according to diplomatic memos released in 2010 by the website WikiLeaks. Washington has suspected for years that Myanmar ran a secret nuclear program supported by Pyongyang.
A top Myanmar official told visiting U.S. Sen. John McCain this month that his country is not wealthy enough to acquire nuclear weapons.