Western Sanctions Fail to Diminish Russian Military-Industrial Output Amid Ukraine Conflict

 

Despite extensive sanctions and significant efforts, Western nations have been unable to effectively undermine Russia's military-industrial complex. This issue extends beyond electronic components, which continue to reach Russia through alternative and more costly routes despite export restrictions. The production of shells, missiles, armored vehicles, and drones has surged, enabling President Vladimir Putin to persist in his aggressive campaign against a neighboring country.

Experts from the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), Jack Watling and Gary Somerville, attribute the West's failure to halt Russia’s military operations to a lack of a unified approach during the initial sanction phase, among other factors.

A significant issue is Europe’s lack of infrastructure to enforce sanctions effectively, unlike the United States. Europe has historically treated sanctions more as a regulatory tool rather than economic warfare, aiming to shame rather than significantly disrupt harmful activities.

Despite the concerted efforts of Ukraine's international allies, Russia continues to obtain nitrocellulose from Germany, Turkey, and Taiwan. Additionally, it sources other essential raw materials for explosives globally, allowing rapid escalation in ammunition production. Since the war began, Russia has significantly increased its production of:

• 152-mm artillery shells: Increasing production by 5.3 times, from 250,000 per year to an expected 1.325 million in 2024. Around 800,000 122-mm shells are expected this year.
• Grad multiple launch rocket systems: Production will increase by 15.2 times, from 33,000 to over 500,000 shells. The Uragan system will see a 6.1 times increase, from 2,800 in 2023 to 17,000 this year.
• Kh-101 cruise missiles: Production has increased from 56 units in 2021 to a projected 420 units in 2023, aiming for 460 units.
• 9M723 Iskander missiles: Production has more than tripled, rising from 50 in reserve at the start of 2023 to 180 within a year.
• Iranian Shahed-136 drones: Production has surged 6.3 times, with collaborative production in Russia and Iran now exceeding 250 units monthly.

Estimating armored vehicle production in Russia is challenging. In 2024, Russia is projected to produce around 1,500 tanks and 3,000 other armored vehicles, with 85% being refurbished from existing stocks. The production of new armored vehicles is also increasing, with the Kurgan Machine-Building Plant's BMP-3 units production recorded at 100, 108, 120, and 135 units quarterly in 2023.

Russian manufacturers have adapted to losing access to Thales’ thermal imagers from France by substituting them with Chinese and Belarusian alternatives. These conversions require machine modifications, but significant imports from the United States, Europe, Taiwan, and other countries continue, including essential software updates.

The importation of dual-use goods critical to Russia's military-industrial strength has surged since President Putin met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in March 2023, according to a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Deliveries of helicopter parts, navigation systems, and precision machinery for weapons and aircraft components have jumped from a few thousand to nearly 30,000 monthly, enabling the Kremlin to expedite the production of armaments like armored vehicles, artillery, missiles, and drones. This boost has fortified their defenses during the Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2023, explained CSIS senior fellow Max Bergmann.

Pentagon Clarifies Sevastopol Beach Not Targeted in Ukrainian Attack on Crimea

 

Pentagon spokesman John F. Kirby clarified that the Ukrainian attack on Crimea on June 23 was not intended to target Sevastopol’s beach, where civilians were caught in the crossfire. According to BulgarianMilitary.com, Ukraine launched an assault on the Crimean Peninsula that day. The Russian Federation reported over 100 injuries and five fatalities, including two children, due to the incident.

While initial reports suggested that Ukraine used five ATACMS missiles and drones, there is no conclusive evidence that ATACMS missiles were actually deployed. Debris found at the scene appears to be from a 9M330 air defense missile of Soviet/Russian origin, but the authenticity of these images is unverified.

The Russian Defense Ministry claimed that air defense systems intercepted four US-supplied ATACMS missiles, but debris from a fifth missile caused civilian casualties. RIA Novosti's inquiries about the ammunition type used were deflected to Ukrainian authorities for confirmation.

Kirby noted that the Ukrainian military independently selects its targets. He explained that a Ukrainian missile aimed at a military site in Crimea was intercepted by a Russian missile, with shrapnel falling on a nearby beach and injuring civilians. Video evidence suggests multiple shrapnel pieces rather than a single fragment, which contrasts with Russian claims of cluster submunitions from an ATACMS missile.

US Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene suggested on social media that the civilian casualties were caused by Ukrainian cluster munitions, criticizing US military aid to Ukraine. She emphasized the importance of defending US borders instead of involving in foreign conflicts.

The Russian Ministry of Defense asserted that the responsibility for the attack lies with Washington, which supplied the weapons, and the Kyiv regime, from whose territory the strike was launched. They reported that four ATACMS missiles were intercepted by air defenses, but the fifth missile’s mid-air explosion caused civilian casualties.

The ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile System) is a US-developed surface-to-surface missile designed for precise deep-strike attacks against critical targets. It is launched from the M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) and the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS). The missile, approximately 13 feet long and weighing around 3,690 pounds, is capable of reaching speeds up to Mach 3 and has a range of up to 300 kilometers.

The ATACMS can be equipped with unitary warheads for precision strikes or cluster munitions for area denial and anti-personnel purposes. The Soviet/Russian S-300 series, specifically the S-300V system, is capable of intercepting such missiles, featuring advanced radar systems and interceptor missiles to engage various aerial threats.

China’s Norinco Eyes Stake in Brazil's Top Missile Developer Avibras

 China North Industries Group Corporation, commonly known as Norinco, is reportedly in talks to acquire a 49% stake in Avibras, Brazil’s leading missile developer renowned for its modular multi-caliber MLRS ASTROS. This move comes after Australia’s DefendTex withdrew from the acquisition due to a lack of political and financial support from its government. DefendTex's offer of 130 million US dollars fell short of Avibras' 200 million US dollar valuation.

The Australian government, a close ally of the United States with access to advanced American missile technologies such as HIMARS, PrSM, NASAMS, NSM, and Tomahawk, showed minimal interest in the Brazilian company. DefendTex also cited the Brazilian government’s ban on military exports for the war in Ukraine as a reason for the failed negotiations, aiming to integrate Avibras products into Western programs to support military supplies for Ukraine.

Norinco's potential acquisition of Avibras could pose significant risks. This move might trigger a U.S. embargo on the export and use of American defense products in Brazil due to sanctions imposed by the Biden administration in 2021. The U.S. Government has warned Brazilian authorities that Norinco’s involvement could jeopardize national security, with sanctions prohibiting the integration of U.S. defense equipment with Norinco-related systems.

These restrictions could heavily impact Avibras’ products, including its flagship ASTROS MLRS, which rely on American technology like communication systems from L3Harris Corporation. Avibras also collaborates with seven other U.S. companies in its supply chain.

It remains unclear whether Norinco intends to invest in Avibras' long-term, less competitive programs or simply leverage the Brazilian brand’s reputation to market its own products.

ATACMS with Cluster Warheads Breaches Russia's S-500 Defense in Sevastopol Attack, Escalates US-Russia Tensions

 

Tensions between Russia and the United States have sharply increased following a significant missile strike on Sevastopol, Crimea, on June 23, resulting in four deaths, including two children, and about 150 injuries from missile debris falling on a nearby beach. Russian officials assert that the missiles were US-supplied ATACMS.

The Russian defense ministry stated that the ATACMS missiles, capable of hitting targets up to 300km away, were responsible for the attack. The incident has led to chaotic scenes in the Uchkuyevka area, with beachgoers fleeing and injured individuals being assisted.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov condemned the strike as “barbaric,” accusing the US of "killing Russian children" and supporting Kyiv in committing acts of international terrorism. He emphasized the US involvement, claiming that all ATACMS are programmed and guided by American specialists.

The Russian defense ministry reported intercepting five cluster warhead-loaded missiles launched by Ukrainian forces. Despite this, significant casualties and damage occurred due to falling debris. Additionally, an American UAV, the Global Hawk, was reportedly present over the Black Sea during the attack, further implicating US involvement.

ATACMS are ground-launched ballistic missiles that travel at speeds up to 2,300 mph, making them challenging to intercept. Upon launch, Russia’s radar systems activate, but the missile's speed leaves only about three minutes to respond, straining air defense units.

The US approved sending Ukraine its first batch of ATACMS with a 165 km range in October. In March, a long-range version capable of hitting targets up to 300 km away was sent. These missiles have significantly impacted Russian targets in Crimea since their first use in April.

In mid-May, a major ATACMS attack on a Russian base in Belbek, Crimea, destroyed an S-400 radar and two launchers. Analysts report substantial Russian losses, including command posts, radars, and launchers.

Russian military expert Vasily Dandykin acknowledged the effectiveness of ATACMS, emphasizing the need for improved air defenses and preemptive strikes on Ukrainian missile systems.

Meanwhile, the Kyiv Post reported that ATACMS breached Russia's S-500 air defense system for the first time, indicating a significant escalation in the conflict and highlighting the missile's capability to penetrate Russia’s most advanced defenses.

Ukraine Targets Russian Air Defenses in Preparation for F-16 Fighter Jet Arrival

 

Ukrainian forces are ramping up efforts to degrade Russian air defense systems in anticipation of receiving F-16 fighter jets later this year, according to the latest analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The June 12 report from the US-based think tank highlights Ukraine's strategic campaign to weaken Russian defenses, potentially allowing for more effective use of manned fixed-wing aircraft in the ongoing conflict.

The assessment details recent Ukrainian military actions targeting critical Russian air defense installations. On the night of June 11-12, Ukrainian forces successfully struck an S-300 air defense battery and two S-400 batteries near the occupied areas of Belbek and Sevastopol in Crimea. Geolocated images released on June 12 confirm the damage, including the destruction of an S-400 radar system south of occupied Dzhankoi and damaged S-300 assets north of occupied Yevpatoria. These strikes support earlier reports from Ukraine’s General Staff about successful attacks on Russian air defense assets.

Kostiantyn Nemichev, founder of the Kraken Regiment of Defense Intelligence of Ukraine (DIU), confirmed on June 12 that Ukrainian forces used HIMARS to destroy four Russian S-300 systems in Belgorod Oblast. Although Nemichev did not specify the exact dates, this action caused Russia to redeploy air defense assets from Crimea to Belgorod Oblast in early June 2024, reducing air defense coverage around Crimea.

Additionally, DIU spokesperson Andrii Yusov corrected earlier reports about drone strikes on the Akhtubinsk air base in Astrakhan Oblast, clarifying on June 12 that two Russian Su-57 fighter aircraft were damaged between June 7-8, not just one as initially reported. The S-300/S-400 air defense systems and Su-57 fighters are crucial for Russia’s efforts to restrict Ukrainian air operations and support its offensive activities in Ukraine.

The ISW assessment suggests these Ukrainian strikes are part of a broader strategy to weaken Russian air defenses before the planned delivery of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, expected to start in small quantities during the summer and fall of 2024. The report states, “Ukrainian forces may seek to actively degrade Russian air defenses before Ukraine receives a significant number of aircraft in order to set conditions for Ukraine’s future use of manned fixed-wing airpower closer to frontline areas.”

ISW believes that successful weakening of Russian air defenses, combined with sufficient fighter jets and trained pilots, could enable Ukraine to integrate fixed-wing aircraft more effectively to support ground forces.

Challenges for Ukraine Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Norway have pledged to supply Ukraine with over 80 US-made F-16 fighter jets to strengthen its defense against Russian attacks. The addition of these F-16s will significantly enhance Ukraine’s air-to-air and air-to-ground capabilities. However, the war has shown that no single platform, even one as capable as the F-16, can single-handedly secure victory for Ukraine. The critical factor will be how these aircraft are integrated into a broader combat strategy.

Experts have noted that Ukrainian pilots who are not well-versed in proper tactics for using these advanced fighters will not fully benefit from the capabilities of a fourth-generation aircraft. Retired US Air Force Brigadier General John Teichert explained that the US approach to deploying new weapons involves extensive education, training, and combat exercises to ensure proficiency. While Ukrainian pilots are being trained to operate these fighters, achieving the same level of proficiency as American aviators in the near term will be nearly impossible.

Moreover, the issue of pilot training has recently come to the forefront. Western officials have indicated that Ukraine will continue to face material and training constraints, likely preventing it from utilizing fixed-wing airpower on a large scale in 2024. Both Ukrainian and Western officials have stated that it will take considerable time to adequately train enough Ukrainian pilots and equip Ukrainian forces with the approximately 150 F-16s needed to achieve air superiority to support ground operations.

Yet, Ukrainian officials have outlined their plans to use F-16s and other fixed-wing aircraft to limit Russian aviation activities. Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Ilya Yevlash mentioned that just two F-16 squadrons, roughly 18 aircraft, could significantly impact the situation in Ukrainian airspace.

The ISW noted, “These restraints should not fundamentally constrain Ukraine’s ability to leverage airpower at scale in the long run, however, should Ukraine’s Western partners lean into supporting Ukraine’s air domain and deep strike capabilities.”

Russia Issues Nuclear Threats if NATO-Backed F-16s Strike Within Its Borders

 

As NATO's support for Ukraine grows, Russia has issued a stark warning to "small countries with dense populations" about the potential for nuclear retaliation if F-16 jets hit targets inside Russia. This follows comments from the Dutch Foreign Minister suggesting that F-16 fighters from the Netherlands could be used for such strikes.

On May 31, Dutch Foreign Minister Hanke Bruins Slot stated that the Netherlands would not object if Ukraine used the supplied F-16 fighter jets to strike Russian targets in self-defense. "If you have the right to self-defense, there are no borders for the use of weapons. This is a general principle," Bruins Slot said during an informal NATO foreign ministers' meeting in Prague.

Denmark has taken a similar stance, with Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen noting that it is fair for Ukraine to use Danish-supplied F-16s to target military objectives within Russia. Rasmussen emphasized that Ukraine was not given carte blanche to invade Russia but to target military installations strategically.

Ukraine is set to receive F-16s from Denmark, the Netherlands, Norway, and Belgium, with the United States approving the transfer. However, Washington's approval may be needed for combat operations targeting Russian territory, as these fighters were originally sold by the US.

Social media is abuzz with speculation that F-16s will soon strike Russia, despite no official acknowledgment from the Pentagon. Pro-Ukraine bloggers and analysts express widespread jubilation over this possibility. The statements from Dutch and Danish officials reflect a growing consensus within NATO to allow Ukraine to target Russian territory with Western-supplied weapons.

Recent indications suggest that the US may have permitted Ukraine to use American munitions to strike Russia, with President Joe Biden authorizing such strikes near Kharkiv. Secretary of State Antony Blinken confirmed this on May 31, noting that the US would "adapt and adjust" to future Ukrainian requests for strikes within Russia.

Blinken did not specify if F-16s could be used for these strikes. The Biden Administration has so far refrained from allowing Ukraine to use long-range Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) to hit Russian targets. Other NATO allies, including France and Germany, have also authorized strikes within Russian territory, led by French President Emmanuel Macron's support for Kyiv's right to neutralize Russian military bases launching attacks into Ukraine.

These decisions come amid Ukrainian leaders' claims that restrictions on their use of weapons have allowed Russia to attack with impunity. Russia has responded with strong warnings, emphasizing its nuclear capabilities.

Russian President Vladimir Putin warned of "serious consequences" due to the escalating situation, particularly for European countries with small territories and dense populations. During a visit to Uzbekistan, Putin highlighted the risks of such nations considering strikes deep into Russian territory.

On May 31, Andrei Kartapolov, Head of the Defense Committee in the Russian lower house, stated that Moscow would respond asymmetrically to any attacks using US-supplied weaponry. Senior Russian security official Dmitry Medvedev also reiterated that Russia's threats of using tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine are serious, cautioning that the conflict with the West could escalate into a full-scale war.

Western leaders have hesitated to supply certain weapon systems and authorize their use against Russia to avoid triggering a broader conflict between NATO and Russia. However, with Russia's ongoing aggressive actions and advances into Kharkiv, NATO states are increasingly supporting the use of long-range Western weapons to counter the Russian threat.

Pakistan Unveils Advanced Aircraft and Rocket Programs at Military Technology Parade

 During the March 23 Pakistan Day Parade held in the capital, Pakistan's military proudly exhibited its latest defense capabilities, unveiling a series of cutting-edge aircraft and rocket projects. Among the showcased equipment was the Haider platform, representing the first locally produced VT-4 main battle tank, which made its debut appearance. This tank, part of the pilot production batch unveiled earlier in March by the state-owned armored fighting vehicles manufacturer Heavy Industries Taxila, marks a significant milestone in Pakistan's defense manufacturing capabilities.

Moreover, Pakistan showcased the long-range HQ-9/P surface-to-air missile system, making its inaugural appearance. This missile system, supplied by China and entering service in 2021, boasts a range of 125 kilometers, adding a formidable layer to Pakistan's air defense architecture. The parade also featured the unveiling of Pakistan's indigenous Fatah 2 guided multiple-launch rocket system and the medium-range Ababeel ballistic missile, both showcasing the nation's prowess in missile technology.

The display of these advanced military assets underscores Pakistan's commitment to enhancing its defense capabilities and modernizing its armed forces. The decision to unveil these projects during the Pakistan Day Parade highlights the significance of these advancements in bolstering Pakistan's security posture.

Furthermore, Pakistan has announced ambitious new defense programs, including the PFX Program aimed at replacing the JF-17 combat aircraft. Additionally, the Fatah 3, with a range of 450 kilometers, is set to enter service soon, while the Fatah 4, boasting a range of 700 kilometers, is currently under development. These programs signify Pakistan's determination to stay at the forefront of military technology and maintain a robust defense posture.

Experts have noted the strategic implications of these developments, with the HQ-9/P missile system offering shorter effective ranges but superior sensor performance compared to its Russian counterparts. The introduction of these advanced missile systems and aircraft programs reflects Pakistan's commitment to deterring potential threats and ensuring national security.

Moreover, the unveiling of the Ababeel ballistic missile, alongside future developments, underscores Pakistan's efforts to enhance its nuclear deterrence capabilities. This display serves as a clear message of Pakistan's resolve to maintain a credible and dynamic full-spectrum deterrent.

Looking ahead, Pakistan's PFX Program aims to develop a next-generation fighter aircraft, signaling the nation's aspirations for technological advancement in the aerospace domain. While details about the PFX Program remain scarce, experts anticipate cooperation with international partners such as Turkey and China to leverage their expertise and resources.

In conclusion, Pakistan's unveiling of advanced aircraft and rocket programs at the Pakistan Day Parade showcases the nation's commitment to modernizing its defense capabilities and ensuring its readiness to counter emerging threats. These developments mark significant strides in Pakistan's defense industry and underscore its resolve to safeguard its sovereignty and national interests.

India Launches Major Land Exercise

NEW DELHI - One of the Indian Army's largest land exercises is underway near the border with Pakistan in the northern state of Rajasthan.

Code-named Sudarshan Shakti, the exercise includes more than 50,000 soldiers, 500 armored vehicles, including battle tanks, as well as Air Force fighter jets and combat helicopters.

Indian President Pratibha Patil on Dec. 5 is scheduled to review the exercises, mounted by the Southern Army headquarters in Pune.

In addition to T-72 tanks, the Russian-made T-90 and the indigenous Arjun tank are also participating.

The Air Force is fielding its Russian-made Sukhoi-30 MKI fighter jet, MiG-21 and MiG-27 fighter jets, airborne warning and control systems and UAVs purchased from Israel, and a variety of helicopters.

The exercise is being led by troops from Bhopal-based Army 21 Corps, also known as Sudarshan Chakra Corps.

The exercise is using network-centric warfare tactics that have been adopted by the Army over the last two to three years, said a senior Army official. The exercise will test the coordination between the India's air and land forces.

India Presses Russians on Smerch Problems

NEW DELHI - India is pressing Russia about Smerch multibarrel rocket launchers (MRBLs) that Indian Army officials say have problems with their firing system. The Army is also having difficulties obtaining spare parts for the Russian-built weapons.
An Indian delegation raised the matters last month at a joint meeting in Moscow, Defence Ministry sources said. The outcome of the meeting was not known.

A Russian diplomat here said the firing system problems occur only in isolated cases, and noted that the Army had tested the weapons before bringing them into service.
The Indian Army needs more Smerches, despite the technical problem, an Army official said.
India bought the Smerch in 2005 and 2006. New Delhi asked for technology transfer, but Russia refused.
The Army relies heavily on the Smerch MRBLs, which can fire 12 rockets at once and hit targets out to 70 kilometers, along with the Russian-origin Grad 122mm rocket systems and indigenous Pinaka MRBL.
Its range can be extended to 90 kilometers, the Army official said. It can also launch surface-to-surface and surface-to-air missiles, he added.