Showing posts with label Putin. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Putin. Show all posts

Saturday, June 29, 2024

India Nears Finalization of Maintenance Deal for Russian S-400 Systems with Local Production Plans by 2028

 




According to a source within the Indian defense industry, an agreement between an Indian company and the Russian manufacturer of the S-400 air defense systems for local maintenance and repair is nearly complete. This has been reported by various media outlets, including EurAsian Times, Russia’s Sputnik, and India’s Times of India.

The key joint venture involves an Indian firm collaborating with Almaz-Antey, the Russian state-owned company that developed the S-400 surface-to-air missile (SAM) system. The primary aim of this partnership is to maintain and repair S-400 air defense systems in India, with plans to eventually produce essential components locally.

Negotiations between the Indian company and Almaz-Antey are almost concluded. The partners intend to establish two support centers and commence manufacturing spare parts in India by 2028.

Discussions about India’s role in manufacturing spare parts and maintaining the S-400 system began back in 2019. Reports from BulgarianMilitary.com indicated that Russia and India were negotiating the production of parts for the S-400 systems within India. Sergey Chemezov from Russia’s high-tech company, Rostec, confirmed these discussions. He also mentioned that Russia had previously sold licenses to India for the production of Su-30 fighter jets and T-90 tanks, and collaborated on the development and production of the BrahMos missile in India.

India sought to purchase the Russian-made S-400 missile systems as early as 2015, finalizing a $5.43 billion contract during Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to India. This move faced opposition from Washington, which threatened sanctions on countries buying military equipment from Russia. Despite U.S. pressure, India remains committed to acquiring the S-400 systems.

Indian sources report a delay in the delivery of the SA-21 Growler anti-aircraft missile systems from Russia. Originally scheduled for delivery by 2024, the final pair will now arrive between July and September 2026, likely due to the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. However, Russia has not officially commented on the delay.

In October last year, new information surfaced about India’s pending S-400 units, with photos shared on Russian Telegram accounts showing the transport of key S-400 components. These photos suggested that the final units for India were nearing completion, pending final assembly and quality tests before shipment.

In March 2024, BulgarianMilitary.com reported another delay in the delivery of the final pair of S-400 Triumf systems to India, disrupting India's defense plans which rely on the three existing S-400 units. The delay of the fourth and fifth units, now expected in 2026, is a significant issue for India.

This situation might offer an unexpected benefit for India's defense industry. India, which currently relies on imported parts for various platforms, could leverage the ongoing conflicts and production challenges to gain a major technology transfer from Russia. This would facilitate local assembly of parts and components, turning a challenging situation into a potential advantage through Transfer of Technology (ToT).

Thursday, June 27, 2024

Western Sanctions Fail to Diminish Russian Military-Industrial Output Amid Ukraine Conflict

 




Despite extensive sanctions and significant efforts, Western nations have been unable to effectively undermine Russia's military-industrial complex. This issue extends beyond electronic components, which continue to reach Russia through alternative and more costly routes despite export restrictions. The production of shells, missiles, armored vehicles, and drones has surged, enabling President Vladimir Putin to persist in his aggressive campaign against a neighboring country.

Experts from the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), Jack Watling and Gary Somerville, attribute the West's failure to halt Russia’s military operations to a lack of a unified approach during the initial sanction phase, among other factors.

A significant issue is Europe’s lack of infrastructure to enforce sanctions effectively, unlike the United States. Europe has historically treated sanctions more as a regulatory tool rather than economic warfare, aiming to shame rather than significantly disrupt harmful activities.

Despite the concerted efforts of Ukraine's international allies, Russia continues to obtain nitrocellulose from Germany, Turkey, and Taiwan. Additionally, it sources other essential raw materials for explosives globally, allowing rapid escalation in ammunition production. Since the war began, Russia has significantly increased its production of:

  • 152-mm artillery shells: Increasing production by 5.3 times, from 250,000 per year to an expected 1.325 million in 2024. Around 800,000 122-mm shells are expected this year.
  • Grad multiple launch rocket systems: Production will increase by 15.2 times, from 33,000 to over 500,000 shells. The Uragan system will see a 6.1 times increase, from 2,800 in 2023 to 17,000 this year.
  • Kh-101 cruise missiles: Production has increased from 56 units in 2021 to a projected 420 units in 2023, aiming for 460 units.
  • 9M723 Iskander missiles: Production has more than tripled, rising from 50 in reserve at the start of 2023 to 180 within a year.
  • Iranian Shahed-136 drones: Production has surged 6.3 times, with collaborative production in Russia and Iran now exceeding 250 units monthly.

Estimating armored vehicle production in Russia is challenging. In 2024, Russia is projected to produce around 1,500 tanks and 3,000 other armored vehicles, with 85% being refurbished from existing stocks. The production of new armored vehicles is also increasing, with the Kurgan Machine-Building Plant's BMP-3 units production recorded at 100, 108, 120, and 135 units quarterly in 2023.

Russian manufacturers have adapted to losing access to Thales’ thermal imagers from France by substituting them with Chinese and Belarusian alternatives. These conversions require machine modifications, but significant imports from the United States, Europe, Taiwan, and other countries continue, including essential software updates.

The importation of dual-use goods critical to Russia's military-industrial strength has surged since President Putin met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in March 2023, according to a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Deliveries of helicopter parts, navigation systems, and precision machinery for weapons and aircraft components have jumped from a few thousand to nearly 30,000 monthly, enabling the Kremlin to expedite the production of armaments like armored vehicles, artillery, missiles, and drones. This boost has fortified their defenses during the Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2023, explained CSIS senior fellow Max Bergmann.

North Korea Tests Multi-Warhead Missile, Escalating Regional Tensions





 On June 27, North Korea announced that it successfully tested a multi-warhead missile, a development that could pose significant threats to South Korea, Japan, and the United States if confirmed. This test is seen as an attempt by North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong Un, to evade missile defenses in South Korea and the US, fulfilling his long-standing ambition for a multi-warhead missile.

The announcement from North Korean state media, KCNA, contradicted South Korea’s assessment of a failed weapon test from the previous day. KCNA reported that the test on June 26 involved the separation and guidance control of individual mobile warheads, marking a significant step in advancing missile technologies.

The test aimed to secure Multiple Independently Targeted Re-entry Vehicle (MIRV) capability, enabling the delivery of multiple warheads to different targets. The missile’s decoy was detected by radar, and the mobile warheads were successfully guided to three target coordinates.

Reports indicate that North Korea used a modified Hwasong-16 booster for a shortened-range test to validate the release of independent warheads. This test, the first of its kind for North Korea, is considered a preliminary step by international observers.

KCNA quoted the North Korean Missile Administration, highlighting the test as part of a full-scale effort to enhance missile capabilities and technologies. Kim Jong Un has listed a multi-warhead missile among his priorities, alongside hypersonic weapons, spy satellites, solid-fuel ICBMs, and submarine-launched nuclear missiles, all of which are in various development stages.

This development is particularly significant amid rising tensions between North Korea and NATO, especially after North Korea’s provocative actions, such as sending waste-filled balloons across the 39th parallel and issuing multiple warnings against US-South Korea cooperation.

Recently, North Korea revived defense cooperation with Russia, hosting Russian President Vladimir Putin and signaling readiness to send troops to fight in Ukraine. Amid this backdrop, the MIRV test gains critical importance, potentially elevating North Korea’s threat level, especially if the warheads are nuclear.

Despite international sanctions, North Korea is believed to have assembled 40-50 nuclear warheads. In November, Kim Jong Un urged exponential nuclear weapon production and aligning with nations opposing the US in a “New Cold War.”

North Korea’s test follows India’s recent MIRV test, which unsettled its nuclear-armed neighbors, Pakistan and China. Unlike South Korea, which lacks nuclear weapons, this development significantly heightens the threat.

MIRVs can overwhelm missile defenses by deploying multiple warheads simultaneously, making interception more difficult. This sophisticated technology requires advanced capabilities, which some US critics believe North Korea might be receiving from Russia, given their military exchanges.

While the world advocates for nuclear non-proliferation, the development of MIRV technology has faced criticism. Hans Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists expressed concerns about the increasing number of countries acquiring MIRV capabilities, warning that it could escalate nuclear tensions.

Similar concerns apply to North Korea, which has issued several nuclear threats. The Washington-based Wilson Center noted that MIRVs would significantly undermine US defense capabilities against a North Korean nuclear strike.

Thursday, June 20, 2024

South Korea Weighs Arming Ukraine Amid Growing Russia-North Korea Military Ties

 




Triggered by the recent defense agreement between North Korea and Russia, South Korea is considering the possibility of arming Ukraine, according to a report from Yonhap News on June 20. An unnamed official indicated that this reevaluation follows the commitment between North Korean and Russian leaders to support each other in case of conflict.

Though not officially confirmed by the South Korean government, these reports follow Seoul's condemnation of the strategic partnership deal signed by North Korea and Russia. South Korea's government stated that the partnership violated UN sanctions, emphasizing that any cooperation that enhances North Korea's military capabilities breaches UN Security Council resolutions and is subject to international monitoring and sanctions.

In a recent statement, Russian President Vladimir Putin praised South Korea for not directly supplying arms to Ukraine, which was perceived as an olive branch to Seoul, dissatisfied with Moscow's growing military ties with Pyongyang.

Historically, South Korea has been hesitant to send arms to Ukraine due to its policy of not arming countries involved in active conflicts. Despite pressure from NATO allies, Seoul has maintained its stance, although it has indirectly supplied 155mm artillery shells to Ukraine via the United States.

Reports suggest that the two Koreas are engaging in a proxy war, with South Korea indirectly aiding Ukraine and North Korea allegedly supplying weapons to Russia. Chris Park from the Center for Strategic and International Studies noted that this situation effectively places the Koreas in opposition through their support of different sides in the Ukraine conflict.

The new defense cooperation agreements between North Korea and Russia, described as the most significant since the Cold War, have escalated tensions with South Korea. Pyongyang has recently launched provocations, including sending waste-filled balloons and soldiers crossing the border, prompting South Korea to fire warning shots.

Concerns are rising in Seoul about North Korea potentially receiving Russian support for its missile program in return for its military backing. The strategic agreement signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un guarantees mutual assistance in case of aggression.

Although it is unclear if the new agreement offers the same level of protection as the Cold War-era pact, it marks a significant step towards a closer relationship between the two nations. The agreement obliges each party to use all available means to assist the other in case of an attack, in compliance with national laws and Article 51 of the United Nations Charter, which upholds the right to self-defense.

Both leaders have characterized the deal as a breakthrough, enhancing cooperation in security, trade, investment, culture, and humanitarianism. Kim Jong Un declared the agreement as the "strongest ever treaty," signaling a solid alliance and full support for Russia’s actions in Ukraine. Putin referred to it as a significant advancement in their bilateral relations.

Monday, June 17, 2024

Putin's Historic Visit to North Korea: Strengthening Military Ties Amidst Global Tensions

 




The Kremlin has announced that Russian President Vladimir Putin will embark on a two-day visit to North Korea, marking his first trip to the reclusive nation in over twenty years. This visit underscores the growing partnership between the two countries. Following his North Korean visit, Putin will travel to Hanoi, Vietnam, for another two-day visit.

Evidence from Ukraine reveals that Russia's military actions are bolstered by more than just its own arsenal. A recent report from the Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) has unveiled North Korea’s covert role in supporting Moscow's campaign by supplying ballistic missiles.

Since November 2023, North Korea has been discreetly sending artillery rounds and ballistic missiles to Russia, aiding its conflict in Ukraine. The DIA's declassified report highlights North Korea's involvement, showing missile debris in Ukraine that matches North Korean designs.

The DIA report indicates that since November 2023, North Korea has been providing ballistic missiles to Russia, strengthening their alliance. This relationship has grown with increased diplomatic exchanges and visits between the two countries’ leaders. Notably, North Korea was one of the few nations to support Russia’s invasion of Ukraine at the UN.

In September 2023, Kim Jong-un visited Russia, touring military facilities and meeting Putin, which led to Putin planning this reciprocal visit to North Korea.

North Korea’s support for Russia includes supplying at least three million artillery rounds and numerous ballistic missiles. These weapons have been used by Russia in Ukraine, targeting civilian areas and causing significant casualties.

For North Korea, this collaboration offers practical benefits, allowing it to test its missile technology in real-world conditions against advanced missile defenses. This partnership also provides mutual diplomatic support as both nations face heavy Western sanctions.

North Korea has developed advanced missile systems, demonstrated in numerous tests since 2019. The DIA’s analysis compares images of missile debris from Ukraine with North Korean missile designs, confirming their origin.

Historically, North Korea has been a significant player in the global arms trade, selling ballistic missile technology to various countries. Under Kim Jong Un, North Korea has prioritized missile development, creating systems capable of regional and intercontinental strikes, posing a substantial threat to international security.

Putin’s upcoming visit to North Korea follows Kim Jong-un’s rare trip to Russia last year, aiming to solidify their alliance. As both nations face extensive Western sanctions, their relationship has grown closer since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

The upcoming summit between Putin and Kim Jong-un is a pivotal moment in global geopolitics, with both leaders known for their authoritarian regimes and nuclear capabilities. Their meeting signifies a crucial point in international relations, as the world watches their next strategic moves.

Monday, June 10, 2024

Ukraine Allegedly Strikes Deep Inside Russia: First Airstrike on Belgorod Amid NATO Weapon Support





 For the first time, a Ukrainian warplane has reportedly struck deep into Russian territory, following authorization from several NATO countries for Ukraine to use provided weapons to attack Russian targets. On June 9, a Ukrainian military source informed Sky News about the airstrike on a "Russian command node" in Belgorod, a region in western Russia.

The source, speaking anonymously, stated, "A Ukrainian Air Force mission has struck a Russian command node in Belgorod. Damage assessment is ongoing, but it is confirmed as a direct hit. This is the first UAF air-delivered munition against a target within Russia."

While Belgorod is close to the Ukrainian border,  neither side has officially commented on the alleged attack.

This reported attack coincides with other claims of Ukrainian forces executing a "coordinated strike" on a Russian landing ship that had moved from the Black Sea to the Sea of Azov. Additionally, Ukrainian media reports suggest that a Su-57 Felon stealth jet was destroyed in a significant combat victory.

The Sky News report did not specify the type of ammunition used in the Belgorod strike or if it was of Western origin. These claims follow statements from NATO countries, including France and the US, that Ukraine could use the provided weapons to hit Russian territory to halt the Russian advance. The US, however, specified that this should be limited to defending Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city.

The exact missile used in the Belgorod attack is unclear, though Ukraine has utilized the long-range Storm Shadow provided by the UK and its French counterpart, the SCALP-EG. French President Emmanuel Macron has allowed the use of French weapons to neutralize points from which Ukraine is attacked, while the UK foreign secretary has left the decision to Ukraine.

The Russian Ministry of Defense reported shooting down several Ukrainian drones and a Neptune missile in the Belgorod region but did not confirm an air-launched missile attack by Ukrainian warplanes.

While Ukraine has previously attacked Russian territory using modified drones, an attack by a warplane could be seen as a significant escalation by Russia, especially given warnings from Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Putin recently reiterated a warning about arming rivals of Western nations supplying weapons to Ukraine, suggesting that Russia could provide high-precision, long-range missiles to those willing to strike Western targets. He stated, "If they supply weapons to the combat zone and call for using these weapons against our territory, why don’t we have the right to do the same?"

In response to NATO allowing Ukraine to attack Russian territory, Putin threatened to arm other nations with long-range weapons to target Western entities. Moscow has also reaffirmed its readiness to deploy nuclear weapons to protect its sovereignty.

Russian state media host Olga Skabeyeva and Dmitry Medvedev, the former president and current deputy chairman of Russia’s security council, echoed these threats, indicating that Russia could supply advanced weaponry to those opposed to the US and its allies.

Sunday, June 2, 2024

Russia Issues Nuclear Threats if NATO-Backed F-16s Strike Within Its Borders


 



As NATO's support for Ukraine grows, Russia has issued a stark warning to "small countries with dense populations" about the potential for nuclear retaliation if F-16 jets hit targets inside Russia. This follows comments from the Dutch Foreign Minister suggesting that F-16 fighters from the Netherlands could be used for such strikes.

On May 31, Dutch Foreign Minister Hanke Bruins Slot stated that the Netherlands would not object if Ukraine used the supplied F-16 fighter jets to strike Russian targets in self-defense. "If you have the right to self-defense, there are no borders for the use of weapons. This is a general principle," Bruins Slot said during an informal NATO foreign ministers' meeting in Prague.

Denmark has taken a similar stance, with Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen noting that it is fair for Ukraine to use Danish-supplied F-16s to target military objectives within Russia. Rasmussen emphasized that Ukraine was not given carte blanche to invade Russia but to target military installations strategically.

Ukraine is set to receive F-16s from Denmark, the Netherlands, Norway, and Belgium, with the United States approving the transfer. However, Washington's approval may be needed for combat operations targeting Russian territory, as these fighters were originally sold by the US.

Social media is abuzz with speculation that F-16s will soon strike Russia, despite no official acknowledgment from the Pentagon. Pro-Ukraine bloggers and analysts express widespread jubilation over this possibility. The statements from Dutch and Danish officials reflect a growing consensus within NATO to allow Ukraine to target Russian territory with Western-supplied weapons.

Recent indications suggest that the US may have permitted Ukraine to use American munitions to strike Russia, with President Joe Biden authorizing such strikes near Kharkiv. Secretary of State Antony Blinken confirmed this on May 31, noting that the US would "adapt and adjust" to future Ukrainian requests for strikes within Russia.

Blinken did not specify if F-16s could be used for these strikes. The Biden Administration has so far refrained from allowing Ukraine to use long-range Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) to hit Russian targets. Other NATO allies, including France and Germany, have also authorized strikes within Russian territory, led by French President Emmanuel Macron's support for Kyiv's right to neutralize Russian military bases launching attacks into Ukraine.

These decisions come amid Ukrainian leaders' claims that restrictions on their use of weapons have allowed Russia to attack with impunity. Russia has responded with strong warnings, emphasizing its nuclear capabilities.

Russian President Vladimir Putin warned of "serious consequences" due to the escalating situation, particularly for European countries with small territories and dense populations. During a visit to Uzbekistan, Putin highlighted the risks of such nations considering strikes deep into Russian territory.

On May 31, Andrei Kartapolov, Head of the Defense Committee in the Russian lower house, stated that Moscow would respond asymmetrically to any attacks using US-supplied weaponry. Senior Russian security official Dmitry Medvedev also reiterated that Russia's threats of using tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine are serious, cautioning that the conflict with the West could escalate into a full-scale war.

Western leaders have hesitated to supply certain weapon systems and authorize their use against Russia to avoid triggering a broader conflict between NATO and Russia. However, with Russia's ongoing aggressive actions and advances into Kharkiv, NATO states are increasingly supporting the use of long-range Western weapons to counter the Russian threat.

Friday, May 31, 2024

Dutch F-35s Assume NATO Nuclear Role; Russian Expert Calls for Nuclear Test

 




Starting June 1, 2024, the Royal Netherlands Air Force (RNLAF) will transition from F-16 Fighting Falcons to advanced F-35 aircraft for NATO’s nuclear deterrence mission, as announced by the Dutch government. This move positions the Netherlands as the first European nation to use the F-35 for this role, marking a significant upgrade in NATO’s nuclear deterrence capabilities.

On May 30, Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren informed the House of Representatives about the transition, which underscores the Netherlands' commitment to NATO's security framework. The F-35 has undergone rigorous testing and certification, achieving initial certification for the deterrence mission in November 2023 and full certification to carry the B61-12 thermonuclear bomb in March 2024.

The transition has already seen Dutch F-35s replace F-16s in the NATO Quick Reaction Alert (QRA) detachment as of March 29, 2024. Volkel Air Base will host the new Dual-Capable Aircraft F-35 squadron, which will eventually deploy the new B61-12 bombs, reaffirming the Netherlands' dedication to NATO’s nuclear deterrence strategy.

In light of this development, Russian expert Dmitry Suslov has called for a "demonstrative" nuclear explosion to deter Western support for Ukraine. Suslov, part of the Moscow-based Council for Foreign and Defense Policy, suggests that a non-combat nuclear test could serve as a stark reminder of Russia’s nuclear capabilities and deter further Western intervention.

Suslov’s proposal, published in Profil magazine, argues that such a test would have a profound psychological impact on Western leaders, reinforcing the deterrent power of nuclear weapons. He also recommended strategic nuclear exercises and warnings to countries supplying Ukraine, suggesting potential global targeting of their assets if they retaliate.

This suggestion follows President Vladimir Putin's warning to the West against allowing Ukraine to strike deep inside Russia, which he claimed could lead to global conflict. While Suslov does not hold an official government position, his think tank’s influence on Russian policy lends weight to his proposal. The Kremlin has reiterated that Russia’s nuclear policy remains unchanged but has recently conducted tactical nuclear weapons drills in response to what it views as escalating Western rhetoric.

This development underscores the ongoing tension and strategic maneuvering between NATO and Russia amidst the broader context of the Ukraine conflict.

Thursday, March 28, 2024

Putin's Warning: F-16s Vulnerable to Russian MiG-31s? Analysis & Threat Assessment




 Russian President Vladimir Putin cautioned that US-supplied F-16 Fighting Falcons to Ukraine could become targets if employed against Russian forces from third-party nations' airfields. Putin's statement follows NATO's announcement granting Ukraine authority to deploy F-16s to engage legitimate Russian military targets beyond its borders.

The F-16s, intended to modernize Ukraine's aging fleet and strengthen its air force capabilities, pose a strategic shift towards Western integration and reduced reliance on outdated Soviet-era aircraft.

However, Russia maintains a formidable aerial advantage, primarily through the deployment of MiG-31 fighter jets armed with the long-range R-37M missile. These missiles have proven effective against Ukrainian aircraft, including instances of downing MiG-29s and deterring foreign surveillance aircraft like the Norwegian P-8A Poseidon.

The MiG-31, a legacy aircraft from the Cold War era, boasts advanced digital avionics and a rear-seated weapon systems officer. Equipped with the Zaslon radar, capable of tracking multiple targets simultaneously, the MiG-31 remains a potent air dominance fighter despite its limited close combat capabilities.

Enhancements in the MiG-31BM variant include network-centric combat control, upgraded radar systems, and extended service life. With a focus on multi-role capability, the MiG-31BM can engage air, surface, and ground targets with improved efficiency.

Additionally, the introduction of hypersonic air-to-air missiles like the R-37M and Kinzhal further bolsters Russia's offensive capabilities, posing a significant challenge to Ukraine's air force.

In response, Ukraine's acquisition of surplus F-16s from NATO allies aims to augment its aerial capabilities. However, the F-16s equipped with AIM-120 air-to-air missiles face challenges against the MiG-31/R-37M combination, necessitating upgrades to narrow the capability gap.

Despite the disparity, F-16s could potentially push back MiG-31s, enabling deeper incursions into Russian airspace and enhancing operational effectiveness over occupied territories.

As tensions escalate, the evolving dynamics between Ukraine's F-16s and Russia's MiG-31s underscore the complex geopolitics and strategic considerations at play in the region's airspace.