India’s Struggle to Modernize its Fighter Fleet: The Challenges and Choices Ahead

 India's plan to procure 114 Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA), a highly anticipated defense deal, remains uncertain. The Indian Air Force (IAF) currently operates 31 fighter squadrons, well below the authorized 42, and needs more to face its two major adversaries.

The IAF has ordered nearly 200 Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Mk1 and Mk1A variants and has committed to 200 LCA Mk2s. However, nine years after the first IAF LCA squadrons were formed, only about 40 LCA aircraft are in service. Even with increased production to 24 aircraft per year, it will take time to meet the required numbers. India's Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) is still over a decade away, and the aging MiG 21s are still in use. The Jaguars and Mirage 2000 fleets need to retire by around 2030. Despite the push for self-reliance, India will need to induct the 114 MRFA to bridge the gap.

The initial Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) process was limited to 36 Rafale jets due to technical reasons. The IAF has specified the operational requirements for these 114 aircraft.

A recent report by the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Defence highlighted delays in delivering the initial 40 LCAs to the IAF and suggested exploring the purchase of fifth-generation fighter aircraft.

MRFA Competition

India issued a Request for Information (RFI) in April 2018 for the 114 MRFA. Responses from contenders were received later in 2018. The Indian Navy was also asked to consider new fighter jets alongside this program. The Navy needs a twin-engine fighter, focusing on the Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet and Dassault Rafale-M, likely opting for 26 Rafale-Ms.

Eight aircraft are competing for the IAF’s MRFA: Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, Boeing F-15EX Eagle II, Dassault Rafale, Eurofighter Typhoon, Lockheed Martin F-21 (a variant of the F-16V customized for India), Mikoyan MiG-35, Saab JAS-39 Gripen E/F, and Sukhoi Su-35.

The next step involves the Defence Acquisition Council's (DAC) Acceptance of Necessity (AoN) and issuing a Request for Proposal (RFP). Even if the RFP is issued today, it could take over five years for the aircraft to be inducted. India's security establishment must make an early decision on the 114 aircraft import.

Big Ticket Assessment

Russia has proposed two aircraft: the MiG-35, which did not qualify in the earlier MMRCA selection, and the new Su-35. The Su-35, part of the Su-27/30 family, is not a viable option due to India's already significant fleet of similar aircraft and planned upgrades. The Russian industry is also preoccupied with domestic demands due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

If the Indian Navy selects the Rafale-M, the interest in the F/A-18 Super Hornet will decline. India has invested in the Rafale infrastructure and modifications, suggesting that acquiring more Rafale jets, potentially making 140 (114+26) in India, is logical.

The Saab JAS-39 Gripen E/F and Eurofighter Typhoon are strong contenders. The Gripen, with its GE 414 engine, and Eurofighter, with its extensive global presence, offer good options, although geopolitical factors and technology transfer levels will influence the decision.

US Influence in India's Aircraft Ecosystem

India has already integrated several US aircraft, including the Boeing P8I, Lockheed C-130J, and others. The upcoming purchase of General Atomics MQ-9B Predator Drones further solidifies US involvement. Evaluating the F-15EX and F-21 (an advanced F-16 variant) is essential.

The F-15EX, with its impressive payload and advanced features, is a heavy, costly option, adding complexity to India’s diverse fleet. The F-21, an advanced F-16, offers in-country production potential but faces public perception challenges due to Pakistan's use of F-16s.

Conclusion

India must make a one-time purchase of 114 aircraft, ideally the same type for the IAF and Navy, with significant technology transfer and in-country production. The US is eager to integrate into India’s fighter aircraft ecosystem, reflecting geopolitical closeness. Ideally, the US should offer the F-35, addressing technical barriers like the S-400 linkage.

Balancing India's aircraft mix to reduce dependence on Russian and Western suppliers while increasing indigenous production is crucial for long-term strategic autonomy.

Turkey Signs $23B Deal for Advanced F-16 Jets to Modernize Air Force and Boost NATO Ties

 

Turkey has officially signed an agreement to purchase new F-16 fighters from the United States, a major step in its efforts to modernize its air force. The deal, confirmed on June 13 by Turkey's defense ministry and the U.S. State Department, marks a significant development in the bilateral defense relationship.

In October 2021, Turkey requested to buy 40 F-16 Block 70/72 fighters to replace its aging F-4E Phantoms. This request also included 79 modernization kits to upgrade older F-16s to similar standards. Although the sale faced initial resistance in Washington, Turkey's support for Sweden's NATO membership and its strong stance against Russia have eased opposition. U.S. Ambassador to Ankara, Jeffrey Flake, called the deal "beneficial for U.S. national security, Turkish national security, and NATO interoperability."

State Department Deputy Spokesperson Vedant Patel highlighted in January that both President Biden and Secretary Blinken have consistently supported the modernization of Turkey’s F-16 fleet, viewing it as a critical investment in NATO interoperability. Currently, Turkey is the largest foreign operator of the F-16, a fighter jet first introduced in 1974. However, Turkey’s F-16 variants are outdated, relying on mechanically scanned array radars with limited electronic warfare and situational awareness capabilities.

Turkey has initiated avionics modernization for 35 of its F-16 Block 30 jets, but NATO’s Turkish fleet still lags behind the more advanced air forces in the region. Countries like the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain have more sophisticated F-16 variants, while Egypt and Syria use enhanced MiG-29s with phased array radars, and Iran is set to deploy advanced Su-35s.

Enhancing Turkey’s aerial capabilities is crucial for NATO’s broader strategic interests, especially as regional challenges to U.S. influence intensify. Turkey’s military actions against Syria and other Iranian-aligned entities, along with support for jihadist affiliates, have complicated the regional military landscape, impacting the efforts of groups like Hezbollah and factions in Syria from focusing on Israel and the United States.

The F-16 Block 70/72 is a ‘4+ generation’ fighter with advanced avionics comparable to those in the latest F-35 stealth fighters. This variant features the APG-83 active electronically scanned array radar, making it a formidable platform for electronic warfare and providing superior situational awareness. The new F-16 variant’s advanced sensors and weapons systems significantly surpass those of older models, which were equipped with less sophisticated technology from the Cold War era and early 2000s.

Initially designed as a cost-effective, lightweight alternative to the F-15, the F-16 continues to play a vital role in U.S. and allied air forces. Turkey’s $23 billion order for the new F-16s will significantly boost the program, particularly as global demand for the aging fighter jet has waned.

Ukraine Strikes Deep Inside Russia: Damages Advanced Su-57 Fighter Jet

Ukraine has successfully targeted and damaged a highly prized Russian Su-57 fighter jet stationed deep within Russian territory, according to a Sunday report from Ukraine's main intelligence directorate (GUR).

The attack struck the Akhtubinsk airfield in the Astrakhan region, about 360 miles from the front lines. Satellite imagery provided by Ukrainian military intelligence shows the Su-57 intact on June 7 and damaged on June 8.

The Su-57 is described by Ukrainian intelligence as Russia's "most modern fighter," capable of deploying Kh-59 and Kh-69 missiles. A pro-Kremlin Telegram channel, Fighterbomber, which often confirms Russian military losses, reported shrapnel damage to the aircraft, with its reparability still undetermined.

Unlike Russia's more commonly deployed Su-25 and Su-35 aircraft, the fifth-generation Su-57 has seen limited use since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. This strike marks the first instance of a Su-57 being damaged in combat, according to Ukrainian military intelligence.

Military correspondent David Axe noted in Forbes that if the damage is confirmed, this would be only the second stealth aircraft lost in combat since the US Air Force first deployed the Lockheed Martin F-117. The first instance was in 1999 when a Serbian air defense battery shot down an F-117 during the Kosovo war.

Ukraine has recently increased the range of its strikes into Russian territory. On Saturday, a video surfaced showing a Ukrainian long-range attack drone targeting Mozdok air base in Russia's North Ossetia region, about 450 miles from the front line. Although it is unclear if the drone caused any military damage, the base houses significant assets, including Tu-22M bombers, Su-24M/MR strike aircraft, and military helicopters.

Retired Australian army general Mick Ryan wrote earlier this year that such deep strikes force Russia to reassess and redeploy its air defense resources. David Axe added that Ukraine's escalating drone campaign has stretched Russia's air defenses thin, unable to protect all critical assets.

The last major Ukrainian attack on Russian warplanes was on May 17, when Ukraine hit Balbek Airfield in occupied Crimea, damaging a Su-27 and two MiG-31s.

Analyzing the Air Power Balance: Indian Air Force vs. Chinese PLAAF

Amid escalating tensions, the Indian Air Force (IAF) faces a formidable challenge from the technologically advanced People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) over the Himalayas. With over 1200 warplanes, the IAF stands in a tight spot against the PLAAF's locally developed and manufactured arsenal.

The PLAAF's substantial size and technological superiority pose a significant threat, yet the IAF holds advantages in operational bases and geographical positioning, critical for supporting Indian Army operations and counteracting PLAAF strategies.

As tensions simmer along the Ladakh border, questions arise about the IAF's ability to sustain operations in challenging mountain terrain and a potentially expanding conflict scenario. An objective analysis of PLAAF capabilities is crucial to assess the threat posed to IAF operations.

Delving into PLAAF platforms, training, and likely tactics provides insights into the potential challenges faced by the IAF. From frontline fighters like the Su-35 and J-20 to strategic assets like the H-6 bombers and advanced cruise missiles, the PLAAF presents a multifaceted threat.

Examining PLAAF training, tactics, and operational exercises reveals a concerted effort to enhance combat readiness and adaptability against near-peer adversaries. However, challenges remain in achieving uniformity across units and maintaining tactical proficiency.

In assessing the PLAAF's potential tactics, the utilization of stealth capabilities, force multipliers like AWACS, and precision strike capabilities underscores the complexity of the threat environment faced by the IAF.

Despite PLAAF's advantages, constraints exist, such as terrain limitations, logistical challenges, and vulnerabilities in extended operations from high-altitude airbases. The IAF's familiarity with low-level flying and operational bases offers strategic advantages in countering PLAAF aggression.

As both air forces engage in a potential conflict scenario, the balance of power hinges on factors like training, motivation, and adaptability. While the IAF may face initial challenges, leveraging strategic acquisitions and operational expertise can bolster its resilience against PLAAF incursions.

In navigating the air power balance, the IAF must prioritize strategic investments in cruise missiles, EW equipment, and air defense systems to mitigate PLAAF advantages and uphold national security interests in the region. 

Turkey's Fighter Jet Dilemma: Could JF-17 Block 3 be the Solution

 In the ever-evolving landscape of geopolitical tensions and defense strategies, Turkey finds itself at a crossroads in its pursuit of advanced fighter jets. Facing denials of F-16s from the United States and Eurofighter Typhoons from Germany, Turkey is now rumored to be considering the China-Pakistan co-developed JF-17 Block 3 as a potential alternative. This shift coincides with recent fighter jet acquisitions by its regional rival, Greece, further intensifying the complex dynamics in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Turkey's quest for F-16s from the United States and Eurofighter Typhoons from Germany has encountered diplomatic hurdles, contributing to the nation's exploration of alternative options. Germany's reluctance to fulfill Turkey's request and the United States' denial of F-16s have left Ankara seeking other partners to meet its defense needs.

On the other side of the Aegean, Greece has been actively fortifying its air force capabilities. Recent acquisitions of F-16V Viper fighter jets from the United States and Dassault Rafale jets from France underscore Greece's commitment to modernizing its air fleet. The addition of these advanced aircraft enhances Greece's military posture and introduces cutting-edge technology to its arsenal.

Turkey, in response to Greece's strategic advancements, is exploring alternatives beyond traditional Western alliances. The potential consideration of the JF-17 Block 3 represents a departure from the established norms, signaling a willingness to diversify defense partnerships and explore options beyond the denied acquisitions.

The JF-17 Block 3, a collaborative effort between China and Pakistan, presents a cost-effective solution for Turkey, equipped with advanced avionics and weaponry. While not directly comparable to Western counterparts, the Block 3 variant is gaining attention for its capabilities, particularly in the context of Turkey's denied acquisitions and Greece's bolstered air force.

Turkey's potential shift towards the JF-17 Block 3 adds a layer of complexity to the geopolitical dynamics in the Eastern Mediterranean. As Turkey seeks alternative defense partners, the move may impact regional power balances and influence diplomatic relationships.

In addition to the JF-17 Block 3, Turkey has other noteworthy alternatives on its radar. The Russian-made Su-57 and Su-35, along with the Chinese J-10C, emerge as potential choices for Ankara. This consideration adds an intriguing dimension to the geopolitical landscape, as operating Russian or Chinese jets would mark a departure for a NATO member. It is worth noting that Turkey already operates the Russian S-400 Air Defense System, a move that led to its expulsion from the F-35 program.

S.Korea, Japan scramble jets as China, Russia enter Seoul's ADIZ

 As per news reports, on Thursday, both South Korea and Japan scrambled fighter jets in response to Chinese and Russian military planes entering their respective air defense zones. South Korea's military reported that two Chinese and four Russian aircraft entered the Korea Air Defense Identification Zone (KADIZ) off its east coast between 11:53 a.m. and 12:10 p.m. The planes exited the area without violating South Korea's territorial airspace, according to the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS).

Simultaneously, Japan deployed jets to monitor joint flights by Chinese and Russian bombers and fighters. The aircraft, including China's H-6, J-16, Y-8, and Russia's Tu-95 and Su-35, were observed flying toward the East China Sea through the channel between Japan and South Korea, as reported by Japan's defense ministry.

An Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) allows countries to unilaterally request foreign aircraft to take specific identification measures, distinct from a nation's airspace. Unlike airspace, there are no international laws governing ADIZ. It's notable that Moscow does not recognize Korea's ADIZ, while Beijing contends that the zone is not territorial airspace, asserting that all countries should enjoy freedom of movement within it.