Pentagon Recommits to Sentinel Nuclear Missile Amid Rising Costs and Program Overhaul

 

The Pentagon remains dedicated to developing the LGM-35A Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile despite escalating costs, instructing the U.S. Air Force to restructure the program to manage expenses. The Sentinel, made by Northrop Grumman, is now projected to cost $140.9 billion, an 81% increase from the initial $77.7 billion estimate. Without modifications, costs could reach $160 billion. This restructuring will delay the program by several years. 

William LaPlante, undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment, emphasized the necessity of modernizing nuclear forces despite the costs. The Sentinel is set to replace the aging Minuteman III missile. In January, the Air Force reported severe cost overruns, prompting a critical Nunn-McCurdy breach review. LaPlante decided to continue with the Sentinel, citing its essential role in national security and the lack of cheaper alternatives.

Significant changes are expected, including rescinding the program's Milestone B approval and ordering a complete restructure to address cost overruns and management issues. The per-unit cost, initially $118 million in 2020, has risen to about $214 million, including additional components.

 Andrew Hunter, the Air Force’s assistant secretary for acquisition, technology, and logistics, supported LaPlante's decision and pledged to devise a restructuring plan over the next few months. This plan will likely take 18 to 24 months for the Pentagon's approval.

Most cost overruns are linked to Sentinel’s command and launch segment, including missile silos and launch control centers. The Air Force aims to scale back these facilities to reduce costs and transition timelines from the Minuteman III system to the new Sentinel facilities. Northrop Grumman continues to make progress on the Sentinel, achieving key milestones in design, development, and testing.

 The Pentagon now has better information on Sentinel's complexities, leading to more accurate cost estimates. The Air Force has established oversight committees and executive officers to manage its nuclear enterprise, ensuring the Minuteman III’s sustainability during the interim period.

Gen. Jim Slife, the Air Force’s vice chief of staff, noted that the most challenging decisions regarding program cuts would be made after establishing the new baseline costs, which are expected to emerge in the next few years.

North Korea Tests Multi-Warhead Missile, Escalating Regional Tensions

 On June 27, North Korea announced that it successfully tested a multi-warhead missile, a development that could pose significant threats to South Korea, Japan, and the United States if confirmed. This test is seen as an attempt by North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong Un, to evade missile defenses in South Korea and the US, fulfilling his long-standing ambition for a multi-warhead missile.

The announcement from North Korean state media, KCNA, contradicted South Korea’s assessment of a failed weapon test from the previous day. KCNA reported that the test on June 26 involved the separation and guidance control of individual mobile warheads, marking a significant step in advancing missile technologies.

The test aimed to secure Multiple Independently Targeted Re-entry Vehicle (MIRV) capability, enabling the delivery of multiple warheads to different targets. The missile’s decoy was detected by radar, and the mobile warheads were successfully guided to three target coordinates.

Reports indicate that North Korea used a modified Hwasong-16 booster for a shortened-range test to validate the release of independent warheads. This test, the first of its kind for North Korea, is considered a preliminary step by international observers.

KCNA quoted the North Korean Missile Administration, highlighting the test as part of a full-scale effort to enhance missile capabilities and technologies. Kim Jong Un has listed a multi-warhead missile among his priorities, alongside hypersonic weapons, spy satellites, solid-fuel ICBMs, and submarine-launched nuclear missiles, all of which are in various development stages.

This development is particularly significant amid rising tensions between North Korea and NATO, especially after North Korea’s provocative actions, such as sending waste-filled balloons across the 39th parallel and issuing multiple warnings against US-South Korea cooperation.

Recently, North Korea revived defense cooperation with Russia, hosting Russian President Vladimir Putin and signaling readiness to send troops to fight in Ukraine. Amid this backdrop, the MIRV test gains critical importance, potentially elevating North Korea’s threat level, especially if the warheads are nuclear.

Despite international sanctions, North Korea is believed to have assembled 40-50 nuclear warheads. In November, Kim Jong Un urged exponential nuclear weapon production and aligning with nations opposing the US in a “New Cold War.”

North Korea’s test follows India’s recent MIRV test, which unsettled its nuclear-armed neighbors, Pakistan and China. Unlike South Korea, which lacks nuclear weapons, this development significantly heightens the threat.

MIRVs can overwhelm missile defenses by deploying multiple warheads simultaneously, making interception more difficult. This sophisticated technology requires advanced capabilities, which some US critics believe North Korea might be receiving from Russia, given their military exchanges.

While the world advocates for nuclear non-proliferation, the development of MIRV technology has faced criticism. Hans Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists expressed concerns about the increasing number of countries acquiring MIRV capabilities, warning that it could escalate nuclear tensions.

Similar concerns apply to North Korea, which has issued several nuclear threats. The Washington-based Wilson Center noted that MIRVs would significantly undermine US defense capabilities against a North Korean nuclear strike.

US Test-Fires Minuteman III Missiles Amid Call for Modernization of Nuclear Arsena

The U.S. military conducted test launches of two unarmed Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missiles this week, emphasizing that these tests were not influenced by current global events. The Air Force Global Strike Command, which oversees part of the United States' nuclear triad, carried out the tests on June 4 and June 6 from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California.

Defense News has reached out to confirm the success of these tests. In the June 4 announcement, Col. Chris Cruise, head of the 377th Test and Evaluation Group, highlighted the importance of the U.S. nuclear program for global security, stating that the test demonstrated the readiness and reliability of the ICBM system and underscored the continuous alert status maintained by U.S. forces.

The missiles' reentry vehicles traveled approximately 4,200 miles to the Ronald Reagan Ballistic Missile Defense Test Site on the Kwajalein Atoll in the Republic of the Marshall Islands. These reentry vehicles, which carry nuclear warheads, are designed to separate from the missile, travel through space, and reenter the Earth’s atmosphere to reach their targets.

Initially operational in the 1970s and intended for a decade of use, the Minuteman III ICBM system remains in service nearly 50 years later and will continue until the 2030s, according to Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Ala., chair of the House Armed Services Committee. Earlier in the month, the Air Force had to intentionally destroy an unarmed ICBM during a test due to an anomaly.

Rep. Rogers emphasized the need to modernize the aging nuclear deterrent, advocating for the replacement of the Minuteman III and other nuclear systems with modern technology. The Air Force is developing a new ICBM, named Sentinel, though the program faces delays and cost overruns, with the first test flight now scheduled for February 2026.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Rep. John Garamendi of California have expressed concerns over the Air Force’s inconsistent timeline for the Sentinel program, noting that while the Minuteman III is expected to remain viable until the mid-2030s, the Air Force plans to maintain it for 15 to 20 more years as the Sentinel is phased in. The Minuteman III will thus be relied upon until at least 2036.

Northrop Grumman: Air Force Design Changes Drive Up Sentinel ICBM Costs

 A Northrop Grumman representative has attributed the significant cost increase of the U.S. Air Force's upcoming intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the LGM-35A Sentinel, to design alterations by the service, particularly concerning the missile silos and connecting cables.

Originally, the Air Force planned to retain nearly all existing copper cabling, spanning approximately 7,500 miles, to support the Sentinel. However, the service later determined the necessity of upgrading to a higher-performing fiber-optic network, leading to additional costs.

Moreover, design adjustments to the launch facilities, initially conceived during the early phases of engineering and manufacturing development, also contributed to the cost escalation. The sheer scale of these changes, encompassing hundreds of launch facilities and thousands of miles of cable, resulted in substantial budgetary impacts.

The Sentinel program, aimed at replacing the aging Minuteman III ICBMs, has faced significant challenges and cost overruns. Originally projected at $96 billion with a per-unit cost of $118 million, the program's expenses have surged by at least 37%, with a current per-unit cost of around $162 million.

As a result of the cost increases triggering a Nunn-McCurdy breach, the Pentagon is conducting a review to identify the factors responsible. Despite setbacks, the Air Force remains committed to the Sentinel program, emphasizing the necessity of replacing the Minuteman III to maintain a credible nuclear deterrent.

Northrop Grumman continues its engineering and manufacturing development work on Sentinel, albeit amidst ongoing cost discussions with the Air Force. Despite the challenges, the program aims to deliver a next-generation ICBM with enhanced capabilities and reliability, ensuring the nation's strategic nuclear deterrent for decades to come.