China Aims for 1,000 J-20 Jets by 2035: Can India's AMCA Narrow the Gap?

 India is striving for self-reliance in developing indigenous fighter jets, with plans to launch the fifth-generation Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) program in 2024. However, by the time the AMCA becomes operational, China aims to have 1,000 J-20 'Mighty Dragon' 5th-generation jets in its arsenal.

China, the second country to deploy an operational 5th-generation fighter, is now advancing towards 6th-generation technologies. The J-20, a twinjet all-weather stealth fighter by Chengdu Aerospace Corporation for the People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF), first flew in 2011 and was revealed in 2016. Entering service in 2017, the PLAAF already has over 200 J-20s, targeting 400 by 2027 and 1,000 by 2035. Some J-20s are positioned less than 150 kilometers from India in the Sikkim region.

The J-20 is designed for air superiority and precision strikes. Currently, the Indian Air Force (IAF) counters with 36 French-built Rafale jets, stationed at the Hasimara air base in West Bengal, close to where J-20s are deployed.

Despite issues with jet engines, China’s early deployment of stealth aircraft gives it a significant lead in maturing 5th-generation capabilities compared to India's AMCA, which is still in the development phase. Retired Air Marshal Anil Chopra highlighted that India is still evolving technologies for its fifth-generation aircraft, including aero-engines, AESA radars, EW systems, and AI-based avionics.

There is pressure within India to accelerate its timeline. The Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) approved Rs. 15,000 crores ($1.9B) in March 2024 to develop the AMCA. The Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA) under the Defense Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) will lead the project, with manufacturing by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL).

HAL is currently focusing on producing more LCA Mk1A jets to fulfill IAF orders before progressing to the LCA Mk2 and then the AMCA. The ADA asserts that the 25-ton twin-engine AMCA will be on par with or superior to other 5th-generation fighters globally once completed.

Air Marshal Chopra suggested that India consider collaborative routes, like joining the GCAP or the French-led FCAS program, to share costs and risks. The IAF’s reliance on aging third-generation jets, while neighboring adversaries rapidly upgrade, adds urgency to the situation. Pakistan might even acquire a fifth-generation fighter before the AMCA.

India's initial quest for a next-gen fighter began 15 years ago with a collaboration with Russia on the Fifth Generation Fighter Jet (FGFA). However, delays and missed deadlines have plagued the DRDO. The AMCA project, originally expected to produce a prototype in three years, now faces a timeline of seven years for its first flight and ten years for induction, pushing initial expectations from 2027 to 2035.

IAF Chief Air Chief Marshal VR Chaudhari advised caution, recommending foreign partnerships for alternative systems if domestic development falters. DRDO Chairman Samir Kamat’s revised timeline aligns with this cautious approach.

Former IAF veteran Vijaindra K Thakur warned about the risks of project delays and technological shortfalls, emphasizing the need for the CCS to stay vigilant about the AMCA’s impact on the IAF’s combat readiness. Balancing self-reliance with operational capability remains crucial for India's defense strategy amidst growing regional threats.

China & Pakistan’s J 10s Breathe Down India’s Neck On ‘Both Sides’

 China has positioned its J-10 Vigorous Dragon fighter jets just 300 kilometers from the Indian base housing Rafale jets, adding a new dimension to the military posturing along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). While the presence of J-20 jets has been well-documented, the deployment of J-10s, considered challengers to the Rafale, has not received as much attention. These J-10s are the only fighters stationed on both the Chinese and Pakistani sides of the Indian border.

Pakistan has integrated these single-engine multi-role fighters to specifically counter the Rafale jets acquired by the Indian Air Force (IAF). The key question is whether India’s Rafale and LCA Tejas MK1A jets can effectively challenge the capabilities of the J-10s.

According to the EurAsian Times, China has deployed these fighters along with six J-20s at the Shigatse Airbase, located less than 300 kilometers from Hasimara Air Base in West Bengal, where India’s Rafale jets are stationed. Unlike China, India does not have a fifth-generation aircraft in its arsenal.

The latest satellite imagery of China’s fighter jets coincides with India’s announcement to raise a new Army division for eastern Ladakh. Since the Galwan clash in 2020, relations have deteriorated, with Beijing criticizing the deployment of 10,000 Indian troops as harmful to peace and stability.

The Indian Army has been preparing for possible Chinese aggression with the onset of summer. During a visit to the US, Indian Army Chief General Manoj Pande received detailed technical-signal intelligence and satellite data on Chinese military movements in Tibet and nearby regions.

Despite these preparations, Indian air power urgently needs enhancement to match the combined capabilities of its neighbors. The induction of 36 Rafales was the initial step in modernizing the IAF’s aging fleet and addressing the declining number of fighter squadrons.

However, the delivery of the LCA Tejas Mk1A has been delayed, and there has been no progress on acquiring 114 Medium Role Fighter Aircraft or additional Rafale jets.

Pakistan added the J-10C to its fleet in response to India’s Rafales. Equipped with an indigenous AESA radar, the J-10C is designed for all-weather operations, primarily in air-to-air combat but also capable of strike missions. The J-10C is often compared to upgraded versions of the American F-16, featuring advanced avionics, beyond-visual-range engagement, and electronic warfare capabilities.

Retired Air Marshal Anil Chopra of the IAF believes comparing the J-10CE with the Rafale is “somewhat unfair” since the Rafale is a twin-engine, combat-proven jet with superior technology, weaponry, and combat experience.

The IAF faces challenges with only 36 Rafales and adversaries on both eastern and western fronts. The situation is different when comparing the J-10C with the indigenous LCA Tejas Mk1A, which is still under production. The IAF has ordered over 180 of these jets to replace the aging MiG-21 bison aircraft, but delivery has been delayed.

The IAF needs 42 squadrons for combat parity but currently has only 31. Phasing out MiG-21s without replacements would reduce numbers further. The J-10C is larger, heavier, and faster than the Tejas LCA, which offers better range and agility. However, the J-10C is already operational in China and Pakistan, while the LCA Tejas Mk1A is still being assembled.

The Indian government, emphasizing “Make in India,” has not proceeded with purchasing 114 Medium Role Fighter Aircraft from foreign manufacturers, an estimated $20 billion investment. The IAF’s overall deterrence capability has not kept pace with the existing threat perception, necessitating new-generation multi-role aircraft until domestic projects like Tejas Mk II and Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft are ready.

The Tejas Mk2 project, despite receiving official approval and funding in September 2022, is still pending due to reliance on US approval for engine technology transfer. The LCA Mk-2, featuring enhanced range and payload capacity, is expected to have significant improvements over the earlier variants, aiming to bolster India’s defense capabilities.

JF-17 Outshines LCA Tejas in Export Market: India and Pakistan Unveil Advanced Fighter Jets

 The skies over the Indian subcontinent are heating up as India and Pakistan introduce their latest supersonic fighter jets, the Tejas Mk 1A and the JF-17 Block III, both competing for regional air supremacy and a share in the global market for cost-effective combat jets.

India and Pakistan's New Fighter Jets

The Indian Air Force (IAF) is set to receive the upgraded Tejas Mk 1A by July, while the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) recently incorporated the JF-17 Block III in December 2023. These aircraft represent advanced iterations of their predecessors and are designed for a variety of military missions.

Production and Evolution

The Tejas, developed by India’s Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA) and Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), and the JF-17, a product of the Sino-Pakistani partnership between the Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC) and China’s Chengdu Aircraft Industry Complex (CAC), are both classified as 4.5-generation aircraft, with the JF-17 Block III described as “fourth-generation plus.”

Budget-Friendly Powerhouses

Both the Tejas Mk 1A and the JF-17 Block III are single-engine, lightweight, multirole fighters designed to replace aging fleets—India’s MiG-21 and Pakistan’s assortment of Chinese and French jets. The Tejas Mk 1A completed its first test flight on March 28, 2024, while the JF-17 Block III had its inaugural flight on December 15, 2019.

Specifications and Features

The Tejas Mk 1A boasts advanced technology, including new electronics, processors, and fly-by-wire hardware, with approximately nine hard points for various weaponry. The JF-17 Block III features superior maneuverability, extended range, advanced electronics, and the NRIET/CETC KLJ-7A AESA radar.

Cost and Export Potential

The Tejas Mk 1A development has a reported budget of $5.9 billion, while the JF-17 Block III costs around $55 million per unit, as indicated by Iraq’s interest in purchasing 12 units for $664 million. The JF-17 has been exported to countries like Nigeria and Myanmar, with potential deals with Azerbaijan and Iraq. Meanwhile, despite negotiations with Malaysia and Argentina, the Tejas has yet to secure export orders.

Future Developments

The PAF plans to develop the JF-17 PFX, continuing the evolution of the JF-17 series. India aims to expedite the delivery of the Tejas Mk 1A to pave the way for the LCA Mk 2, featuring more capable engines and extended flight duration. The first squadron of Tejas Mk 1A is planned for deployment at the Nal air base in Rajasthan’s Bikaner district.

As these advanced fighter jets take to the skies, the rivalry between India and Pakistan intensifies, setting the stage for an electrifying aerial showdown.

LCA Tejas Mark 1A Completes Maiden Flight in Bengaluru: Milestone for Indigenous Fighter Aircraft

 The Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) successfully conducted the inaugural flight of the indigenous Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Tejas Mark 1A fighter jet in Bengaluru, as reported by news agency ANI. HAL officials confirmed that the Made in India LCA Mark 1A completed its first flight, remaining airborne for 15 minutes.

HAL Chairman Ananthakrishnan highlighted the significance of this achievement, emphasizing its contribution towards delivering the aircraft to the Indian Air Force (IAF). Additionally, HAL aims to deliver another LCA trainer aircraft to the IAF before March 31, following the successful completion of four trainer-version aircraft deliveries.

The fighter aircraft is expected to be stationed at Nal airbase in Rajasthan's Bikaner, near the Pakistan border, with plans for deployment of the first squadron at the Nal airbase. The agency also reported HAL's commitment to delivering the first twin-seater trainer version aircraft to the IAF by the end of March.

The IAF has signed a contract worth over ₹48,000 crore with HAL for the supply of 83 LCA planes, with clearance for an additional 97 LCA Mark 1A fighter jets. Notably, the Indian Air Force already operates two squadrons equipped with the light combat aircraft Tejas.

Air Chief Marshal VR Chaudhari hailed the clearance of the LCA Tejas Mark 1A as a "landmark event," highlighting its significance in bolstering the Indian Air Force's capabilities. With plans to increase the fleet to 220 LCA Mark 1As, the Indian Air Force is set to enhance its operational strength with nearly ten squadrons equipped with these indigenous fighter jets.

Fighter Jet Projects Surge, But Not Where You'd Expect

The number of countries attempting to develop a new fighter aircraft has surged recently, part of a cycle that has ebbed and flowed since the dawn of the jet age.

South Korea and Turkey are the latest nations to start clean-sheet programs, while Japan is working on its ATD-X concept demonstrator, India is working on an improved version of its Light Combat Aircraft and Indonesia has signed on to the Korean effort.

Most are drawn by the prospects of developing a homegrown industrial base, boosting employment and filling military needs, analysts said.

"If you want to do all three badly, then you build a national fighter," said Richard Aboulafia, an analyst at the Teal Group, Fairfax, Va. "It comes in waves, and a lot of it driven by national aspirations and a lot of it is driven by perception of threat, and a lot of it is driven by the ruling party in the given country."

In the 1980s, domestic politics fostered a spate of indigenous fighter projects, which were generally killed off in the next decade or two by economic realities, Aboulafia said. With free-market capitalism's cachet diminished in many parts of the world, such national programs have made a comeback.

"Even autarchy has come back into vogue," Aboulafia said. "I think this might be a reflected dislike of market reality that has come with the economic meltdown of the past three years."

There is also a perception that an indigenous effort will be cheaper than an imported design, said Byron Callan, an analyst at Capital Alpha Partners in Washington. Many countries cannot afford new fighters such as the F-35, Eurofighter Typhoon, Dassault Rafale or even the new Russian PAK-FA, Callan said.

Even the Swedish Gripen, which recently won a Swiss order largely because it was cheaper than the Rafale and Typhoon, is very expensive, he said.

Something has to fill the market void, Callan said.

But Aboulafia said these nations are grossly underestimating the cost of developing a new fighter. For example, Seoul estimates that its KF-X stealth fighter effort will cost about $8 billion - "which is enough to maybe design a decent set of wings," he said.

Dan Gouré, an analyst at the Lexington Institute, Arlington, Va., concurred.

"It's horribly expensive," he said.

The track record for national fighter programs is not a good one. Japan, which has a highly developed economy and advanced technology, tried and failed to develop good cost-effective fighter, even with U.S. help, Aboulafia said.

Japan's experience with the F-2, which was based on the F-16, was a disaster that largely soured the country on developing an indigenous fighter. Aboulafia noted Tokyo's ongoing ATD-X stealth fighter development effort but said it would likely produce only a concept demonstrator, not a full production effort.

"There is nothing about history that would make you want to do this," Aboulafia said. "And looking at history, they have a lot to answer for."

Nor do most countries attempting to build an indigenous fighter have the technical wherewithal to build such an aircraft. Neither Turkey nor South Korea has the technical ability to build such fighters without external help.

"They're going to find there is an enormous gap between the licensed production of F-16s and designing, integrating and producing an entirely new product," Aboulafia said.

Even South Korea's recent experience in co-developing the T-50 jet trainer does little to alleviate the problem, he said.

Gouré was blunt about their chances for success: "There is no way in hell."

Only a handful of nations can design and build fighters without external help, he said. France, Britain, the U.S. and Russia are the only countries ever to successfully develop their own fighters, he said.

"Even the Chinese stuff, it's really all derivative of Russian hardware," he said.

Only about 60 percent of the Saab Gripen is built in Sweden, with the rest, including the engines, mostly U.S. in origin, Gouré said.

Because indigenous programs almost invariably offer an inferior product, there is tension between those who would develop such aircraft and those who will be expected to fly them in combat.

"Are you simply expecting to do as good a job as a traditional producer, or are you simply expecting your air force to take casualties?" Aboulafia said. "The best-case scenario is the reinvention of a fourth-generation jet with higher cost, which is exactly what happened with Japan's F-2."

India's Light Combat Aircraft is a good example. Leery of adopting the homegrown fighter because of its less-than-impressive performance, the Air Force has shown a clear preference for the winner of the country's Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft - either Rafale or the Typhoon - and the Indo-Russian T-50 PAK-FA stealth fighter.

Callan said, ultimately, countries that need only interceptors for home defense don't need particularly advanced aircraft. A light fighter similar to an F-16 or F/A-18 might suffice.

"There is 'good enough' for a lot of these markets," he said.

China’s J-10B fighter for Pakistan worries Indian air force

The recent official offer of the Chinese to raise a squadron of its home-grown advanced multi-role, all-weather fighter aircraft J-10B to Pakistan has worried Indian defence experts. 

Pakistan will be the only other country apart from China to have this sophisticated fighter aircraft.

Air Commodore (Retd) Jasjit Singh, director, New Delhi-based Centre for Air Power Studies (CAPS), told DNA: “India now not only faces the possibility of a two-front war but has to also deal with a two-front military modernisation programme with China supplying its latest weaponry to Pakistan.”

He said India faces a 10-year window of vulnerability as the Indian Air Force’s (IAF’s) present squadron of 34 is way below the sanctioned strength of 39 squadrons. “It will take 10 years for the IAF to get back to its sanctioned strength of 39 squadrons. While Pakistan at present, with 24 squadrons, is raising its strength rapidly with China’s support,” said Singh, who is also the former director of Institute for Defence Studies and Analysis.

Former Vice Chief of Air Staff, Air Marshal PK Barbora, however, said China’s offering Pakistan a squadron of the J-10s may not threaten India’s air superiority. “China does not have a great record of producing a world-class aircraft. All they do is reverse engineer and manufacture aircraft. Secondly, by raising just one squadron Pakistan may not benefit much,”he said.

However, Pakistani media reports indicate that it is looking at raising two squadrons of the fourth generation aircraft to counter India’s Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Tejas, which is still under development. Besides, according to US military and defence technology news website, Defense Update, the Chinese designed Joint Fighter (JF)-17 (commonly known as ‘Thunder’) is already under production in Pakistan and is actively being promoted for export in the world market.

Despite his optimism, Air Marshal Barbora warned that the slow pace of India’s defence indigenisation (read LCA Tejas, in particular) is a cause for worry. “We will be adding 300 more Su-30 MKIs; getting 126 medium multi role combat aircraft; and upgrading the Mirage 2000s, Jaguars and the MiG-29s. The same cannot be said of some pathetic status of indigenous programmes like the Light Combat Aircraft, which has been delayed for years now,” he says.