China Advances Toward Sixth-Generation Fighter Jet with Significant Progress

 Despite China's notorious secrecy surrounding its defense projects, there are signs of progress in developing a sixth-generation fighter jet. The clearest indication came from a January 2019 WeChat post by the Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC). In an interview, Wang Haifeng, the chief designer at Chengdu Aerospace Corp., an AVIC subsidiary, revealed plans for a combat aircraft designed to "protect the sea and sky" by 2035.

Wang mentioned features such as manned-unmanned teaming, artificial intelligence, enhanced stealth, and omnidirectional sensors. In 2022, U.S. Air Combat Command’s head affirmed these efforts are "on track," noting that China views sixth-gen technology similarly to the U.S., emphasizing stealth, processing power, and reprogrammable open-mission systems.

Rick Joe, a Chinese military expert, now considers these sixth-gen efforts a confirmed program. Since 2019, there have been more indicators, including AVIC artwork of next-gen fighter designs, academic papers, and statements from officials. In October 2021, satellite imagery showed a tailless fighter-like airframe at Chengdu Aerospace facilities.

Joe reported that demonstrator testbeds, possibly subscale versions, have already flown. Without an official name, he referred to the aircraft as the J-XD, noting it might initially have less capable subsystems compared to U.S. equivalents but is closing the technological gap.

Sixth-gen fighters are expected to feature advanced aerodynamic design, radiofrequency materials, flight control software, sensing technologies, data-linking and combat-management systems, weapons, and integration with collaborative drones. Joe believes China is competing on par with other nations pursuing similar capabilities.

However, Brendan Mulvaney, director of the U.S. Air Force’s China Aerospace Studies Institute, expressed a more cautious outlook. While he acknowledges China’s potential to develop advanced fighters in the future, he doubts they have the capability today. He highlighted China’s challenges with jet engine development but noted significant improvements.

Mulvaney suggested that China's future fighter might be optionally manned, allowing for autonomous operations or serving as a loyal wingman. While Chinese drone technology is ambitious, it remains unclear how it will complement a sixth-gen fighter. Joe noted that current Chinese combat drones displayed at air shows are likely not representative of those intended for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), which are probably more advanced.

The GJ-11 combat drone, unveiled in 2019, exemplifies China's progress in unmanned systems. Joe believes sophisticated combat drones are in advanced development or limited trial service. The J-20 fighter's twin-seat variant, designed for manned-unmanned teaming, could also contribute to these efforts.

If Wang's prediction of an operational sixth-gen fighter by 2035 is accurate, a maiden flight would need to occur by 2028, implying a prototype should be ready soon. While Joe is confident in this timeline, Mulvaney estimates China will reveal a meaningful design in the late 2030s or early 2040s.

India to Reconsider Russian Su-57 Stealth Fighter to Counter China's J-20

 The Indian Air Force (IAF), recognized as the fourth largest air force globally, is currently without a fifth-generation fighter jet. Despite previous involvement in the Sukhoi/HAL Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) project, which was based on Russia's Sukhoi Su-57, India withdrew from the program in 2018. However, the possibility of revisiting this decision remains open.

Globally, 19 countries operate fifth-generation fighters. China uses its Chengdu J-20 ‘Mighty Dragon,’ while Russia employs the Sukhoi Su-57 ‘Felon.’ Seventeen other nations have adopted the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II, with the U.S. exclusively operating the F-22 Raptor. Only the U.S., China, and Russia have developed original fifth-generation fighters, though many nations participate in F-35 development.

The FGFA project aimed to integrate 43 enhancements proposed by India into the Su-57, including advanced sensors and avionics. The Indian variant was planned to be a two-seater, featuring a pilot and a weapon systems operator (WSO). Since stepping away from FGFA, India has focused on developing its own fifth-generation fighter, the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA). However, the Su-57 remains an option, especially given the F-35's unavailability due to India's acquisition of the Russian S-400 air defense system.

The Sukhoi Su-57 is a twin-engine, stealth multirole fighter first developed in 1999 and introduced to the Russian military in 2020. Known for its air superiority and ability to engage surface and maritime targets, the Su-57 boasts stealth features, super-maneuverability, and a large payload capacity. Despite its advanced capabilities, the Su-57 has faced technological and financial hurdles, including issues with structural integrity during early tests.

The Su-57 features a blended wing body fuselage, extensive use of composites, and advanced stealth technologies aimed at reducing radar and infrared signatures. It is equipped with sophisticated avionics, including a modular avionics system and various radar systems for enhanced situational awareness. The aircraft can deploy various countermeasures and is being tested for advanced AI and unmanned teaming technologies.

Russia's production of the Su-57 has been slow, with plans for significant expansion. Initial operational use included deployments in Syria and Ukraine, demonstrating the aircraft's capabilities in combat situations. Future developments include an upgraded Su-57M variant, a potential carrier-based version, and integration with the Okhotnik UCAV for uncrewed operations.

In contrast, China’s Chengdu J-20 ‘Mighty Dragon’ has seen rapid production, with nearly 250 units built. Designed for air superiority and precision strikes, the J-20 features advanced stealth design, powerful radar systems, and high maneuverability. The J-20’s production and deployment have outpaced the Su-57, reflecting China's growing military capabilities.

India, once a partner in the FGFA project, remains cautious about fully committing to the Su-57. Given the challenges and delays in developing the AMCA, India might reconsider the Su-57 or explore other options like the Su-75 Checkmate. However, with China's expanding J-20 fleet and potential threats from neighboring countries, India must act swiftly to ensure its air force remains competitive.

The Su-57 and J-20 will likely compete for market share in regions like Africa, West Asia, and Southeast Asia. Despite their differences, both aircraft offer cost-competitive solutions for countries seeking advanced air combat capabilities. As the global landscape of fifth-generation fighters evolves, India’s decisions will significantly impact its strategic military position.

Chinese Researchers Analyze F-35 vs. F-22: Which Stealth Fighter Poses a Greater Threat to PLAAF?

 Recently, US Indo-Pacific Command's Admiral Samuel Paparo discussed a “Hellscape” strategy to counter China, predicting a strong drone force could severely challenge any Chinese invasion of Taiwan. General Kenneth Wilsbach, Commander of the Pacific Air Forces, argued in March 2022 that using expendable unmanned aircraft against China would be more effective than deploying high-end stealth fighters like the F-35s or F-22s.

While many analysts view the F-22 Raptors as the primary threat to Beijing, Chinese researchers have a different perspective. In April last year, they conducted a study comparing the US stealth fighters F-35 and F-22, concluding that the F-35 Lightning II presents a greater threat than the F-22 Raptors.

Despite the F-22’s reputation as a formidable stealth aircraft, the study published in the Chinese-language journal Modern Defense Technology found the F-35 poses a more significant threat to Chinese military defenses. The research evaluated the impact of these aircraft during various stages of a counter-air operation near China’s coastline.

The study suggests that the F-35A, with its advanced avionics and multirole capabilities, is more adaptable and effective in potential conflicts in the Indo-Pacific region. Researchers noted that the F-35's ability to perform multiple functions and its versatility in various missions give it an edge over the F-22.

The F-35 has become a vital asset in the region due to its advanced technology and remarkable adaptability. The US and its allies operate many F-35s near China, whereas the F-22s are fewer in number and solely operated by the US Air Force, often on a rotational basis. By 2035, over 300 F-35s are expected to be deployed in the Indo-Pacific, with operators including Australia, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, and the US.

To counter the F-35 threat, Bao Junchen from the National University of Defense Technology and a team from the People’s Liberation Army’s Unit 31649 in Guangdong propose a dual strategy. They recommend enhancing electronic warfare capabilities for "soft kill" actions and developing physical weapons for "hard kill" responses. The F-35A's roles as both an intelligence-gathering sensor and a primary escort for forward attacks call for both non-destructive and destructive countermeasures.

China views the US’s penetrating counter-air operation strategy as a significant threat and is heavily investing in military capabilities to counteract US power in the Asia-Pacific. The US maintains a strong military presence in the region, with bases in Japan, South Korea, and Guam. In response, China has deployed advanced systems like the HQ-9 missile system and the J-20 stealth fighter, increasing production of the latter.

These weapons are intended to counter US air defenses and target high-value assets such as airfields and command centers. The study emphasizes that analyzing the F-22 and F-35 can help China develop effective countermeasures and protect its airspace. Additionally, the research advocates for a coordinated strategy to counter B-2 and B-1B bombers, which pose a threat when penetrating deeper into Chinese territory. A multi-dimensional approach using various platforms from air, land, sea, and space is recommended.

Although the study found the MQ-9 drone less threatening, it warned against ignoring advanced drones like the XQ-58A and RQ-180. The researchers used an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to evaluate each aircraft’s threat level, offering a nuanced assessment. However, the lack of raw data due to military sensitivity makes independent verification challenging.

Indian Air Force Bolsters Eastern Airbases Amid Rising Tensions with China

 In response to increasing tensions with China, the Indian Air Force (IAF) is upgrading infrastructure at 20 eastern airbases, enhancing capabilities to handle China-centric operations. This includes constructing hardened aircraft shelters, munitions centers, and additional runways to accommodate increased civilian traffic and ensure operational continuity in case of runway damage during conflict.

A notable upgrade is the construction of a second runway at the strategic Leh airbase in Ladakh, a region of frequent India-China military clashes. Leh airbase is essential for maintaining operations along the Line of Actual Control with China and Siachen. The base supports night operations for fighters and transport aircraft, including Rafales, MiG-29s, Sukhoi-30s, and Apaches, and is vital for transporting troops and supplies during harsh winters when road access is limited.

The IAF’s infrastructure development extends to other key bases. Satellite imagery from April 2024 revealed significant enhancements at the Chabua Air Base, near the China border. Upgrades include additional taxiways, hardened shelters for fighter aircraft, underground munitions storage, and improved taxiways for drones, ensuring sustained high-tempo operations if tensions escalate.

In Ladakh, a new 2.7-km runway at Nyoma airbase, located 23 kilometers from the China border, is set for completion in October 2024. The new runway, at an elevation of 13,700 feet, will enhance IAF operations. Support infrastructure, such as hangars, air traffic control buildings, and hard standing areas, will be ready by the end of 2025. Nyoma airstrip, operational during the 1962 India-China war, was reactivated in 2009 and has since supported various military aircraft, including the C-130J Super Hercules.

China has been ramping up its air assets along the LAC since the 2020 Galwan standoff. Recent satellite images show the deployment of China’s Chengdu J-20 Mighty Dragon 5th-generation fighter jets at Shigatse Air Base, only 150 kilometers from the LAC. The base also hosts J-10 aircraft and KJ-500 Airborne early warning and control aircraft, posing a strategic challenge to India's Rafale-equipped Hasimara Air Base in West Bengal.

The Shigatse base, with its new 3,000-meter auxiliary runway and multiple helipads, is strategically located along the central China-India border, close to the Doklam area, site of a 2017 standoff. The oblique angle of the new runway complicates enemy strikes aiming to disable both runways simultaneously.

China’s infrastructure expansion along the LAC since 2020, which includes new airbases, missile sites, roads, bridges, bunkers, and underground facilities, has significantly enhanced its military capabilities. The Hotan airbase in Xinjiang now features a new runway, additional tarmacs, hangars, and upgraded air defenses.

According to the China Power Project at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), China has upgraded dozens of airports and heliports in Tibet and Xinjiang, improving last-mile connectivity and enabling a wider range of military operations. Open-source data identifies 37 newly constructed or upgraded air facilities in these regions since 2017, with at least 22 being military or dual-use. The accelerated development in 2020, including the construction and upgrading of 14 air facilities, fills previous gaps along the Indian border, providing the PLA Air Force (PLAAF) new bases to project airpower against India.

China & Pakistan’s J 10s Breathe Down India’s Neck On ‘Both Sides’

 China has positioned its J-10 Vigorous Dragon fighter jets just 300 kilometers from the Indian base housing Rafale jets, adding a new dimension to the military posturing along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). While the presence of J-20 jets has been well-documented, the deployment of J-10s, considered challengers to the Rafale, has not received as much attention. These J-10s are the only fighters stationed on both the Chinese and Pakistani sides of the Indian border.

Pakistan has integrated these single-engine multi-role fighters to specifically counter the Rafale jets acquired by the Indian Air Force (IAF). The key question is whether India’s Rafale and LCA Tejas MK1A jets can effectively challenge the capabilities of the J-10s.

According to the EurAsian Times, China has deployed these fighters along with six J-20s at the Shigatse Airbase, located less than 300 kilometers from Hasimara Air Base in West Bengal, where India’s Rafale jets are stationed. Unlike China, India does not have a fifth-generation aircraft in its arsenal.

The latest satellite imagery of China’s fighter jets coincides with India’s announcement to raise a new Army division for eastern Ladakh. Since the Galwan clash in 2020, relations have deteriorated, with Beijing criticizing the deployment of 10,000 Indian troops as harmful to peace and stability.

The Indian Army has been preparing for possible Chinese aggression with the onset of summer. During a visit to the US, Indian Army Chief General Manoj Pande received detailed technical-signal intelligence and satellite data on Chinese military movements in Tibet and nearby regions.

Despite these preparations, Indian air power urgently needs enhancement to match the combined capabilities of its neighbors. The induction of 36 Rafales was the initial step in modernizing the IAF’s aging fleet and addressing the declining number of fighter squadrons.

However, the delivery of the LCA Tejas Mk1A has been delayed, and there has been no progress on acquiring 114 Medium Role Fighter Aircraft or additional Rafale jets.

Pakistan added the J-10C to its fleet in response to India’s Rafales. Equipped with an indigenous AESA radar, the J-10C is designed for all-weather operations, primarily in air-to-air combat but also capable of strike missions. The J-10C is often compared to upgraded versions of the American F-16, featuring advanced avionics, beyond-visual-range engagement, and electronic warfare capabilities.

Retired Air Marshal Anil Chopra of the IAF believes comparing the J-10CE with the Rafale is “somewhat unfair” since the Rafale is a twin-engine, combat-proven jet with superior technology, weaponry, and combat experience.

The IAF faces challenges with only 36 Rafales and adversaries on both eastern and western fronts. The situation is different when comparing the J-10C with the indigenous LCA Tejas Mk1A, which is still under production. The IAF has ordered over 180 of these jets to replace the aging MiG-21 bison aircraft, but delivery has been delayed.

The IAF needs 42 squadrons for combat parity but currently has only 31. Phasing out MiG-21s without replacements would reduce numbers further. The J-10C is larger, heavier, and faster than the Tejas LCA, which offers better range and agility. However, the J-10C is already operational in China and Pakistan, while the LCA Tejas Mk1A is still being assembled.

The Indian government, emphasizing “Make in India,” has not proceeded with purchasing 114 Medium Role Fighter Aircraft from foreign manufacturers, an estimated $20 billion investment. The IAF’s overall deterrence capability has not kept pace with the existing threat perception, necessitating new-generation multi-role aircraft until domestic projects like Tejas Mk II and Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft are ready.

The Tejas Mk2 project, despite receiving official approval and funding in September 2022, is still pending due to reliance on US approval for engine technology transfer. The LCA Mk-2, featuring enhanced range and payload capacity, is expected to have significant improvements over the earlier variants, aiming to bolster India’s defense capabilities.

China’s J-20 Stealth Fighter Continually Upgraded, New Next-Gen Aircraft Imminent

 Following displays of air power against Taiwan and India, a pilot from the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) announced that the J-20 Mighty Dragon is undergoing continuous upgrades to meet its combat objectives.

The Global Times, a state-owned publication, reported that a top test pilot of the J-20 stealth fighter jet revealed that the aircraft is receiving ongoing upgrades, with a next-generation warplane expected to debut soon. Test pilot Li Gang, speaking on China Central Television (CCTV), stated, "The J-20 is constantly improving, keeping pace with the times, and continuously perfecting its mission system to achieve its expected combat objectives."

Li hinted at the imminent introduction of a new aircraft, though he did not specify its type. China is known to be developing a sixth-generation fighter, similar to the efforts of the US and Europe.

In February 2023, the Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) shared a concept for a sixth-generation fighter featuring diamond-shaped wings and a tailless design. However, as reported by EurAsian Times, China is still working on improving basic radar, avionics, and engine technologies.

Chinese commentators emphasized that China would not rest on the success of the J-20 while other nations, like the US, are developing next-generation fighter jets. The US is progressing with the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) system.

While a new Chinese aircraft might be years away, the J-20 has become a key asset for the PLAAF, deployed in all five military theaters. It has been stationed near the contentious border with India and has participated in military drills targeting Taiwan, demonstrating its readiness for future combat scenarios.

Chinese military aviation specialist Fu Qianshao highlighted that China's aviation technologies have advanced rapidly since the J-20's initial test flight. While some have doubted the J-20's stealth capabilities, Fu stressed that it incorporates the latest technologies, including new engines and aerodynamic, avionics, radar, software, and material modifications.

Fu compared the J-20 to the US Air Force's F-22 Raptors, noting that the F-22 has not seen significant updates since its development and is aging. He argued that the J-20 is currently the most advanced fighter jet globally.

Although the F-22 has received upgrades, particularly in the Block 30/35 versions, the J-20's continuous enhancements highlight China's commitment to advancing its stealth fighter capabilities. The J-20's upgrades include potentially increasing its missile capacity, adding thrust-vectoring engine nozzles, and installing higher-thrust WS-15 engines for supercruise capability.

Additionally, a twin-seater J-20 model, possibly for autonomous escort control, is in development. This model might also serve as a tactical electronic jammer and advanced early warning aircraft.

Reports suggest that the J-20 could have an edge over the F-22 due to its ability to carry multiple missiles like the PL-15, which may have a longer range than the US AIM-120 AMRAAM.

As tensions rise between the US and China, the J-20 poses a significant challenge to US air superiority. With around 200 J-20 fighters in service and more in production, the J-20 represents a formidable threat to the US and its allies.

China Deploys Stealth J-20 Fighters Near Indian Border, Sparking Concerns

 

China's People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has deployed J-20 and J-10 fighters at the Shigatse Air Base, just 150 kilometers from the Indian border, also known as the Line of Actual Control (LAC). Satellite images obtained by All Source Analysis reveal six J-20 stealth fighters, eight J-10 aircraft, and one KJ-500 airborne early warning and control aircraft at the high-altitude, dual-use airport.

This significant deployment puts the J-20s less than 300 kilometers from India’s Hasimara Air Base in West Bengal, where the Indian Air Force (IAF) has stationed its Rafale jets. This proximity has raised alarms among Indian military bloggers, highlighting the disparity between the two air forces. Unlike China, India does not have a fifth-generation aircraft.

The IAF's Rafales, considered one of its strongest defenses against the Chinese threat, are strategically positioned at Hasimara for quick deployment in case of a border threat. During the 2020 standoff, China deployed five times more J-20 fighters compared to India’s Rafales. This recent deployment at Shigatse is one of the largest near the Indian border in recent memory, following previous sightings at the Hotan airbase in Xinjiang.

China first positioned J-20s near the Indian border during the 2020 conflict, responding to the perceived threat from India’s Rafale jets. In June 2022, the PLAAF stationed about two dozen combat aircraft, including J-20s, at Hotan.

The J-20s have become a symbol of China’s military prowess. Recently, the PLA Eastern Command showcased the J-20s' capabilities in a video emphasizing their “cross-strait” lethality. This display followed military drills in response to Taiwan President Lai Ching-te's speech on independence. By 2026, each of China’s five theatre commands will have one to two J-20 brigades.

The J-20, featuring advanced electronics and sensors, is designed for “intelligentized combat,” functioning as a “sniper” by targeting vulnerable assets like airborne early warning planes with near-invisibility. Chinese media claims the J-20 is superior to the Rafale due to its stealth capabilities, though analysts argue the two jets are designed for different roles.

In a 2020 simulation drill, Chinese pilots claimed to have shot down 17 Rafale fighters using J-20s. Despite these claims, Indian officials and experts maintain that the Rafale’s combat history in various conflicts puts it above the still-developing J-20. Ironically, while Chinese J-20s are near the Indian border, Indian Rafales are in the US for the Red Flag military exercises to enhance their combat skills.

Global Advances in Sixth-Generation Fighter Jets: Emerging Technologies and International Collaboration

 Most fighter jets in service worldwide belong to the 4th and 4.5th generations, with over 1,500 fifth-generation fighters currently operational. Numerous fifth-generation aircraft programs are now integrating sixth-generation technologies, which are still developing and are expensive due to their cutting-edge nature. These advancements include enhanced communications, Internet of Things (IoT) capabilities, and extensive data sharing across platforms. A global look at the efforts to develop sixth-generation fighter aircraft reveals various international collaborations.

Many nations, unable to fund these expensive programs independently, are forming consortiums. The F-35 program exemplifies such partnerships. Some countries aim to enhance their defense industries and reduce reliance on American programs. The Global Combat Air Program (GCAP), involving Italy, Japan, and the UK, is a notable example.

The term "generation" in jet fighters refers to stages in design, performance, and technological evolution, though there are no official definitions. Understanding the fifth and sixth generations is crucial.

Fifth-Generation Fighters: The fifth generation began with the F-22 Raptor in 2005, designed for a network-centric combat environment. These fighters have advanced low-observable features, multifunction AESA radars, and integrated sensors for superior situational awareness. Key features include advanced electronic warfare systems, stealth technology, thrust vectoring for enhanced maneuverability, and internal weapon bays to maintain low radar visibility. Examples include the F-35, Russia's SU-57, and China's Chengdu J-20 and Shenyang J-31.

Sixth-Generation Technologies: These include advanced networking, AI, data fusion, cyber warfare capabilities, and modular designs allowing rapid upgrades. New stealth airframes, high-capacity networking, and integration with various platforms are expected. The Tempest program, led by the UK, Italy, and Sweden, exemplifies these technologies, including AI-supported operations and advanced radar systems.

Global Collaborations: The GCAP aims to merge efforts from the UK, Japan, and Italy to develop a sixth-generation fighter, combining the BAE Systems Tempest and Mitsubishi F-X programs. Development is set to start in 2025, with service induction around 2035. Challenges include harmonizing capabilities across partner nations and ensuring cost-effectiveness.

US NGAD Program: The USAF's Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program aims to succeed the F-22 Raptor with a family of systems, including manned and unmanned aircraft, expected to be operational by the 2030s.

Chinese and Russian Programs: China is advancing its sixth-generation aircraft development, aiming for completion by 2035. Russia, despite the incomplete operationalization of the Su-57, is also pursuing sixth-generation technology, emphasizing AI and automation.

Overall, the development of sixth-generation fighter jets is marked by international collaboration, cutting-edge technology integration, and the aim to maintain air superiority in future combat environments.

China's Aircraft Carrier Ends Maiden Trip: Xinhua

BEIJING - China's first aircraft carrier has returned to port after completing a "smooth" set of sea trials designed to test its capabilities, the state news agency Xinhua reported on Aug. 15.
The 990-foot ship docked in the northeastern port of Dalian on Aug. 14 after five days of trials that have sparked international concern about the country's widening naval reach.

The carrier tests came amid heightened tensions over a number of maritime territorial disputes involving China, notably in the South China Sea, which is believed to be rich in oil and gas and is claimed by several countries.
Dockworkers set off fireworks as the vessel, a refitted old Soviet carrier called the Varyag, returned to port, Xinhua said, adding that the ship would now undergo further work and testing.
"The sea trials carried out by the aircraft carrier on its maiden voyage went smoothly," it said.
China's People's Liberation Army - the world's largest active military - is extremely secretive about its defense programs, which benefit from a huge and expanding military budget boosted by the nation's runaway economic growth.
Earlier this year, China announced military spending would rise 12.7 percent to 601.1 billion yuan ($91.7 billion) in 2011.
In January, China revealed it was developing its first stealth fighter jet. It is also working on an anti-ballistic missile capable of piercing the defenses of even the most sturdy U.S. naval ships.
Japan recently expressed concern about what it called the "opaqueness" of China's military budget, and the U.S. State Department last week called on the country to explain why it needed an aircraft carrier.
"This is part of our larger concern that China is not as transparent as other countries," said spokeswoman Victoria Nuland. "It's not as transparent as the United States about its military acquisitions, about its military budget."
Beijing only recently confirmed it was revamping the old Soviet ship. It has repeatedly insisted that the carrier poses no threat to its neighbors and will be used mainly for training and research purposes.
But a news website run by China's defense ministry took a different stance four days ago, stating that the carrier should handle territorial disputes as well.

Chinese Avionics Advances Ripple Throughout Asia

ISLAMABAD - China's avionics industry is closing the gap with other avionics producers, with benefits flowing to Pakistan and new challenges emerging for the U.S.

Chinese aircraft are helping Pakistan maintain conventional deterrence toward India as New Delhi pursues cutting-edge technology to revamp its airpower. As a result, said Usman Shabbir, of the Pakistan Military Consortium think tank, the new "JF-17 Block II [combat aircraft] may see a Chinese AESA [active electronically scanned array] radar along with an IRST [infrared search and track] sensor, and an even better ECM [electronic countermeasures] suite."

Wider advances by China's aviation industry would result in "greater use of composites to reduce the overall airframe weight" for the JF-17 Block II, and also a thrust vectoring control engine; though Shabbir conceded the latter "has never been officially confirmed."

Analyst Kaiser Tufail said an AESA radar is "the way to go," and that "all future [radar] acquisitions or retrofits would be AESA, whether mechanically scanned or phased-array type."

Tufail said the current JF-17 radar, a variant of which is fitted to the Chinese Chengdu J-10 combat jet, is an interim solution "because the [Pakistan Air Force] had been unable to find a radar vendor who could sell cutting-edge technology at an affordable price."

Tufail said Pakistan's acquisition of advanced Chinese avionics should not be seen through the prism of Indian programs, such as the Medium Multirole Combat Aircraft program. Rather, he said, it should be seen as Pakistan's effort to keep pace with modern weaponry.

And China benefits from its collaboration with Pakistan.

"Traditionally, the Chinese aviation industry has found an excellent test bed in the PAF, and their products have been, and can be, proven in ways that are not possible with [China's Air Force], due to limitations of comparative analysis in truly operational scenarios and with respect to Western equipment that PAF operates," he said.

As a result, a "Chinese AESA radar would, therefore, be a synergetic success in partnership with Pakistan," he said.

However, it is unknown whether the new JF-17 Block II radars are variants of those fitted to the improved J-10B. If that is the case, analyst and Chinese specialist Andrei Chang said the new radar is unlikely to be an AESA type.

"The phased-array radar testing on the J-10B is a passive model," he said.

Chang said he does not think the Chinese have developed "a useful AESA radar for the JF-17 and J-10B," but they could in the future.

"I know they are researching AESA radars, but it takes time," he said.

China's technological advances give potential adversaries cause for concern, Tufail said.

"As in many other fields like space and information technology, China is making a mark in major ways which impacts geostrategic and security issues," he said. "Technological developments like AESA radars would, thus, certainly have a bearing on the comfort levels of countries that have an adversarial relationship with China."

The potential threat posed by Chinese advances in avionics is an issue Carlo Kopp of the Air Power Australia think tank has tried to raise.

"Chinese technology is a mix of reverse-engineered Western and Russian designs, and some often very good indigenous ideas," he said. The danger this poses is clear.

"As the Chinese advance and proliferate these products, they are increasingly narrowing the range of environments in which Western air forces and navies can operate," Kopp said.

CHINESE DEFENSES

"Today, only the U.S. F-22A [stealth fighter] and B-2A [stealth bomber] can penetrate Chinese airspace with impunity," he said. "All other Western designs, including the intended F-35 [Joint Strike Fighter] and existing F/A-18E, would suffer prohibitive loss rates" to surface-to-air missiles, he said.

Kopp's opinion of the F-35 is perhaps surprising, but he said he believes China's investment in more maneuverable aircraft will expose severe weaknesses.

"The notion that having a good AESA [radar] can overcome kinematic performance limitations in a design is predicated on the idea that your missiles are 100 percent effective in long-range combat," he said. "The evidence shows otherwise for the AIM-120 AMRAAM."

The approach that says "let the missiles do the turning," rather than the aircraft, "is a mantra in the F-35 and F/A-18 camps," Kopp said. "Unfortunately, it is wishful thinking by folks promoting obsolete designs. The mathematics and physics of aerial combat do not support this proposition."

Therefore, the strategic impact of China's advances will be substantial and exacerbated by poor long-term decision-making by the U.S., Kopp said.

"As China wholly recapitalizes its fleets, and exports these products, there will be an inevitable strategic impact, as the U.S. has been reluctant to export the F-22, has chopped F-22 production funds, and has no new products in the pipeline capable of robustly surviving against top-end Chinese products in combat," he said.

Kopp also blames the reluctance by Washington to share high-technology weaponry with allies that could check China's advance.

He singles out Defense Secretary Robert Gates for making decisions that will produce "a dangerous long-term strategic environment in Asia as China introduces and proliferates advanced technology, and the U.S. chooses for ideological reasons to no longer invest in advanced air power."