Sweden Donates AEW&C Aircraft to Ukraine, Enhancing F-16 Capabilities Amid Threats from Russian MiG-31BM

In a major and unexpected move, Sweden has announced it will supply Ukraine with two Saab 340 airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft as part of a new SEK 13.3 billion ($1.25 billion) military aid package. This aid marks Sweden's largest support package to date, aiming to bolster collective air defense capabilities. The announcement came on May 29, when the Swedish government detailed its "Military Support Package 16," with the Saab 340 AEW&C aircraft, also known as the S 100D Argus or ASC 890, being the central component.

The Swedish Ministry of Defense stated that these aircraft would provide Ukraine with a new capability for airborne radar reconnaissance and combat control against air and sea targets, significantly enhancing Kyiv's long-range detection and targeting abilities. Equipped with advanced Erieye radars based on Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) technology, these aircraft will revolutionize Ukraine’s surveillance capabilities.

Currently, the Swedish Air Force operates only two of these sophisticated surveillance planes. The aid package indicates that one or both of these planes will be transferred to Kyiv, temporarily reducing Sweden’s AEW&C capability. To address this, Stockholm will expedite the acquisition of an additional Saab GlobalEye platform and accelerate the delivery of two units already on order, with the first new aircraft expected by 2027.

Sweden’s Minister of Defense, Pal Jonson, noted that sending the planes followed intensive discussions with coalition countries and emphasized that the ASC 890 aircraft would significantly bolster Ukrainian air defense. These advanced aircraft will complement the F-16 fighter jets to be supplied by Belgium, Denmark, Norway, and the Netherlands, forming a robust air force coalition for Ukraine. The timeline for the delivery of the ASC 890 aircraft has not been specified.

AEW&C Aircraft for Ukraine

The deployment of these AEW&C aircraft holds significant strategic value. They offer extensive overhead surveillance, crucial for detecting low-flying threats like Russian drones and cruise missiles that often evade conventional radar systems. The Saab 340 AEW&C will play a vital role in coordinating F-16 fighter operations by detecting, prioritizing, and guiding targets for interception, thus enhancing Ukraine's defense posture.

Valerii Romanenko, a leading researcher at the National Aviation University of Ukraine, emphasized the transformative impact of these aircraft, highlighting their ability to unlock the full potential of the multi-role F-16 fighters. The Saab 340’s integration with the NATO-standard Link 16 datalink communications system ensures seamless coordination with allied air defense systems, providing a comprehensive air defense picture and targeting data to compatible systems both airborne and on the ground.

Russian Threats and AEW&C Vulnerability

Despite their operational advantages, AEW&C systems are vulnerable to hostile actions. Earlier this year, the Russian Air Force lost two Beriev A-50 AWACS planes to Ukrainian missile attacks, underscoring the strategic importance and susceptibility of these aircraft. The Saab 340 AEW&C, with a detection range of up to 450 km, would need to operate within Ukrainian airspace to be effective, making them targets for Russian MiG-31BM and Su-57 fighters armed with R-37 air-to-air missiles, which have a range of 300 kilometers.

While the MiG-31BM presents a detectable threat, the Su-57’s advanced stealth capabilities pose a significant detection challenge. Additionally, the R-37M missiles are exceedingly difficult to evade. The Mikoyan MiG-31BM interceptors near the Russia-Ukraine border extend the threat radius across Ukrainian airspace, often forcing Ukrainian fighter pilots to abort missions. The relatively slower and less agile Saab 340 is more vulnerable compared to the four-engine A-50, which can reach higher speeds and altitudes.

Conclusion

The introduction of Saab 340 AEW&C aircraft to Ukraine’s military will significantly enhance its surveillance and defense capabilities. However, these gains come with increased vulnerability to advanced Russian fighter jets and missile systems. The balance of power in the region will be closely monitored as these developments unfold. 

Putin's Warning: F-16s Vulnerable to Russian MiG-31s? Analysis & Threat Assessment

 Russian President Vladimir Putin cautioned that US-supplied F-16 Fighting Falcons to Ukraine could become targets if employed against Russian forces from third-party nations' airfields. Putin's statement follows NATO's announcement granting Ukraine authority to deploy F-16s to engage legitimate Russian military targets beyond its borders.

The F-16s, intended to modernize Ukraine's aging fleet and strengthen its air force capabilities, pose a strategic shift towards Western integration and reduced reliance on outdated Soviet-era aircraft.

However, Russia maintains a formidable aerial advantage, primarily through the deployment of MiG-31 fighter jets armed with the long-range R-37M missile. These missiles have proven effective against Ukrainian aircraft, including instances of downing MiG-29s and deterring foreign surveillance aircraft like the Norwegian P-8A Poseidon.

The MiG-31, a legacy aircraft from the Cold War era, boasts advanced digital avionics and a rear-seated weapon systems officer. Equipped with the Zaslon radar, capable of tracking multiple targets simultaneously, the MiG-31 remains a potent air dominance fighter despite its limited close combat capabilities.

Enhancements in the MiG-31BM variant include network-centric combat control, upgraded radar systems, and extended service life. With a focus on multi-role capability, the MiG-31BM can engage air, surface, and ground targets with improved efficiency.

Additionally, the introduction of hypersonic air-to-air missiles like the R-37M and Kinzhal further bolsters Russia's offensive capabilities, posing a significant challenge to Ukraine's air force.

In response, Ukraine's acquisition of surplus F-16s from NATO allies aims to augment its aerial capabilities. However, the F-16s equipped with AIM-120 air-to-air missiles face challenges against the MiG-31/R-37M combination, necessitating upgrades to narrow the capability gap.

Despite the disparity, F-16s could potentially push back MiG-31s, enabling deeper incursions into Russian airspace and enhancing operational effectiveness over occupied territories.

As tensions escalate, the evolving dynamics between Ukraine's F-16s and Russia's MiG-31s underscore the complex geopolitics and strategic considerations at play in the region's airspace.