An AirSea Battle on the Potomac

It is clear from last month's commemoration of the 70th anniversary of the attack on Pearl Harbor that this disaster continues to impact the U.S. psyche and national strategy. "The next Pearl Harbor" has been a common theme in reports regarding 9/11.

One can assume the recently developed and classified AirSea Battle Concept has a similar vista. Addressing the "anti-access/area denial" environment, it purportedly discusses the growing influence of China and the importance of Asia to America's national interests. As the name states, air and sea power will be critical to the attainment of U.S. national interests.

While analogies to Pearl Harbor are understandable, they may be misleading on the challenges of tomorrow. A more appropriate lesson might be found in the Battle of Midway.

As the sun rose on June 4, 1942, the Imperial Navy of Japan was the most powerful navy ever to sail. By sunset, its eventual defeat was inevitable. Japan in 1942 possessed six world-class aircraft carriers and the finest naval aviators. Four carriers were lost on that day.

Lacking a robust industrial base, Japan would produce only seven additional fleet carriers by the end of the war (the U.S. more than 20). Rational or not, Japan started a war with a limited force structure and little ability to replenish loses.

Fast-forward to 2012. In a world of iPads, it is incredible, but the forces that will carry out the AirSea Battle construct reflect decisions made decades ago. Tomorrow's U.S. Air Force will possess a nominal force of bombers and a handful of sophisticated F-22s and F-35s. While highly capable, these fifth-generation fighters lack the range and payload necessary for conflicts in Asia. Friendly bases are few.

The airfields close enough for effective sortie generation rates with fifth-gen fighters will likewise be within range of Chinese ballistic and cruise missiles. This environment requires hardened facilities and a robust missile-defense system. The former do not exist and the latter only in limited numbers.

While U.S. naval forces will benefit from their mobility, they too will face a Chinese anti-access threat projected to acquire and target surface combatants. With a deck of F/A-18s and F-35s, our carriers will be as range-challenged as our land-based fighters. Getting the carrier to the fight will require expensive escorts to defend against missile attacks. Combat operations would quickly become problematic once the defensive armaments are depleted.

Complicating this bleak outlook is the acquisition death spiral of increased cost/reduced numbers. As weapon systems progress through the acquisition cycle, they invariably fall behind schedule from unforeseen production issues. This drives up the cost, reducing the number of systems that can be purchased. The spiral continues with the war fighter receiving fewer platforms, later than needed, and costing significantly more than planned.

These two flaws could leave the U.S. in the same position that Japan found itself in 1943, weakened and unable to reconstitute a viable force. A small fighter force will generate few effective sorties (this assumes sufficient aerial tankers. Fighters in Asia are static displays without tankers). The loss of a Nimitz-class carrier would rival Pearl Harbor in loss of life and drive our surface naval forces out of harm's way. Like Imperial Japan, a Midway debacle would cripple U.S. power projection. And like Japan of 1943, America of 2012 cannot quickly reconstitute our current weapon systems.

With senior leaders stating there are no alternatives to weapon systems currently in development, it's apparent their predecessors organized a Pickett's Charge decades ago and left the charge to them. Resolving this mismatch between force structure and strategy will require a proper focus on the challenges of combat operations in the Pacific.

Specifically, in the short term:

■ Expand procurement of standoff missiles, such as the Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile-Extended Range.

■ Regain our superiority in electronic warfare that was lost in our infatuation with stealth.

■ Purchase low-end attack aircraft and remotely piloted vehicles for noncontested environments.

■ Limit the F-35 buy to 200 to 400 aircraft.

For the long term:

■ Develop manned/unmanned long-range penetrating precision strike platforms (both land- and carrier-based).

■ Research and develop 21st century battleships capable of firing ballistic and cruise missiles from long range.

On June 3, 1942, the Imperial Navy of Japan was the uncontested master of the Pacific. On the following day, American ingenuity, guts and a degree of luck made Japan's eventual defeat inevitable. The future naval and air forces of the U.S. could face a similar tragedy, one in which the finest air and naval forces are rendered incapable of effective combat operations due to a 20-year process where we purchased what we wanted instead of what we needed.

Perhaps the most important contribution from an honest assessment of the AirSea Battle construct will be to own up to this unfortunate fact.

Chris Choate is a retired U.S. Air Force colonel now performing operational test and evaluation work with the service as a civilian employee. These views reflect those of the author and not the Air Force, Defense Department or U.S. government.

U.S. Ship Rescues Six More Iranians: Pentagon

WASHINGTON - A U.S. ship rescued six Iranian mariners in the Gulf after their boat broke down Jan. 10, the Pentagon said, in the latest such gesture despite soaring tensions between Washington and Tehran.

The Iranian crew used flares to seek help from the passing U.S. ship after flooding in the engine room left their dhow unseaworthy before sunrise some 50 nautical miles southeast of the Iraqi port of Umm Qasr, U.S. officials said.

The Coast Guard cutter, the Monomoy, gave the Iranians water, blankets and meals made in accordance with Islamic law and provided medical care for one of the mariners who had suffered non-serious injuries, officials said.

A U.S. military statement said that Hakim Hamid-Awi, the owner of the Iranian dhow named the Ya-Hassan, was thankful.

"Without your help, we were dead. Thank you for all that you did for us," the U.S. statement quoted him as saying.

In the afternoon, U.S. forces transferred the six mariners on inflatable boats to an Iranian Coast Guard vessel, the Naji 7, the statement said. The captain of the Naji 7 also offered his regards to his U.S. counterparts and "thanks us for our cooperation," according to the U.S. statement.

The United States says that its forces routinely rescue sailors in distress regardless of nationality but officials have been eager to highlight efforts to assist Iranians amid Tehran's threats to close the crucial Strait of Hormuz.

Last week, the U.S. Navy rescued 13 Iranians held by pirates. Iran welcomed the gesture, even though it earlier had warned the ships to stay away.

That rescue was carried out by one of several warships escorting the aircraft carrier John C. Stennis, which the Iranian military had warned to stay out of Gulf waters or face the "full force" or Tehran's navy.

The Coast Guard cutter the Monomoy, which carried out the latest rescue, is in the Gulf to assist maritime security, according to the Pentagon.

Iran's threat - which analysts say it may not be able to carry out - came as the United States expanded sanctions against the Islamic regime and the European Union considers a total ban on oil exports from Tehran.

Western powers have been seeking to increase pressure on Iran due to fears it is developing nuclear weapons. Iran insists its uranium enrichment is solely for peaceful purposes.

U.S. Navy Frees Iranian Sailors from Pirates

The fishing dhow Al Molai looks like hundreds of similar craft plying the waters of the Arabian Sea.

A BOARDING TEAM from the destroyer Kidd approaches the dhow Al Molai to free a group of Iranian sailors held hostage by pirates (U.S. Navy)

For about six weeks, the fishing boat moved around attracting little attention, its average appearance masking evil intentions.

The picture of innocence began to change Jan. 5.In reality, the vessel and its crew of Iranian sailors was being held hostage by pirates. The Al Molai became a mother ship for smaller boats apparently carrying Somalis bent on attacking merchant ships.

The end of the Al Molai's pirate career began when the Bahamas-registered cargo ship Sunrise issued a distress call around 8:30 a.m. A group of suspected pirates in a small, 15-foot open skiff was, according to the master of the Sunrise, attacking his ship.

The nearby U.S. aircraft carrier John C. Stennis heard the radio call and dispatched the escorting cruiser Mobile Bay to move in. When an MH-60S helicopter from Helicopter Anti-submarine Squadron 8, Detachment 1 operating from the cruiser approached, the six people aboard the skiff tossed a number of objects in the water.

"We suspected the objects to be RPGs [rocket-propelled grenade launchers] and rifles," Rear Adm. Craig Faller, commander of the John C. Stennis carrier strike group, told reporters during a conference call from his flagship on Jan. 6.

According to Faller, the suspected pirates surrendered to the helicopter. The cruiser moved in and sent over a boarding team, but no direct evidence was found to hold the Somalis. Despite being found about 175 miles at sea, southeast of Muscat, Oman, the skiff's sailors feigned innocence.

"They told us they were operating in the area for fun," Faller said. "We didn't think so."

Released, the suspected pirates set off on a course for an unknown destination. The helicopter followed at a distance. Soon, the small boat approached an Iranian-flagged dhow. The destroyer Kidd, patrolling in the region against pirates since mid-November, was vectored in, and its embarked MH-60R helicopter from Helicopter Maritime Strike Squadron 71, Detachment 3, took over from the Mobile Bay's helo.

Asked by reporters on the conference call if it was clear it a pirate situation was at hand, Cmdr. Jennifer Ellinger, the destroyer's commanding officer, was confident.

"Yes, definitely," she said.

The helicopters "observed there were Middle Eastern as well as Somalis on board the craft," Ellinger said. "But when we talked bridge-to-bridge they indicated they were Iranian and there were no foreigners aboard, which we knew not to be true," she said.

The dhow's master spoke to the Americans over the radio in Urdu, a language widely spoken in Pakistan. The pirates were unable to follow along, but an Urdu-speaker aboard the Kidd had no trouble translating.

"When we talked to the master, it was clear he was under duress," Ellinger said. "He said they were physically abused, they were scared. They invited us to come over. We reassured them that we would be on the way."

According to Ellinger, the master told the pirates the Americans were coming on board and they knew they were there.

"He convinced them to surrender," she said.

The destroyer drew up to the dhow with guns manned and ready. "Basically it was a forceful approach," Ellinger said. "We asked them all to come topside and surrender their weapons."

The pirates put down their weapons but then tried to hide. When the American boarding team arrived, the master helpfully pointed out all the hiding places, and 15 suspected pirates were taken into custody without any shots being fired.

The 13 freed Iranian fishermen were ecstatic.

"We brought food and meals," Ellinger said. "They had no refrigerator, it was broken. They were relying on fishing to get food, although the pirates had some fruit and provisions."

The Iranian sailors "were extremely grateful," Ellinger said. "Their morale continued to increase as we removed the Somali pirates."

The pirates were transferred on Jan. 6 to the Stennis, where they were still being held on Jan. 7.

"The pirates are under our custody and evidence is being gathered," Faller said. "This will be referred to the interagency in the U.S. to determine what will occur."

The pirates would be treated appropriately, Faller told reporters. "As bad as they are, they deserve humane treatment like any person."

Provisioned with food and wearing Kidd ball caps, the Iranians sailed off to return to their home port.

UNAWARE OF CONTROVERSY

Faller said neither the Iranian fishermen nor the pirates seemed to have any awareness of the recent tensions between Iran and the U.S. over transits of the Strait of Hormuz, the passageway between the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea.

Shortly after the Stennis left the Gulf earlier this week, Iran's Army chief threatened the U.S. Navy and declared that the carrier would not be allowed back in. The threat was issued at the conclusion of a major 10-day Iranian naval exercise, and as new economic sanctions were slapped on Iran by the U.S. and other Western nations.

Despite the heated rhetoric from Tehran, the U.S. has sought to downplay the situation. Asked if the U.S. was exploiting the rescue of the Iranian sailors for publicity reasons, Faller was adamant.

"No sir. We didn't have a vision we'd be on a conference call tonight talking about it," he said during the conference call.

"The Navy is just doing its job out here. Conducting combat operations over Afghanistan and maintaining freedom of the sea."

No response to the rescue has been received from Iran, Faller said, although he acknowledged his forces have recently encountered Iranians.

"We have had interactions at sea with Iranian aircraft and surface ships," he said. "Those interactions have all been professional."

He did not provide further details.

Asked if the Stennis might go back through Hormuz, Faller gave the standard response.

"The Strait of Hormuz is an international strait, and by international law is subject to freedom of navigation," he said. "If it means moving back through the strait that's what we'll do. Right now it's business as usual as we focus on operations over Afghanistan."

"The U.S. Navy has been here for over 60 years," Faller added, "and we'll be here as long as we're needed. On call and ready."

Iran to Hold New War Games in Strait of Hormuz

TEHRAN - Iran is to hold fresh military exercises in and around the strategic Strait of Hormuz within weeks, the naval commander of its powerful Revolutionary Guards was quoted as saying Jan. 6.

The maneuvers are to be held in the Iranian calendar month that runs from Jan. 21 to Feb. 19, the Fars news agency quoted Ali Fadavi as saying.

They will underline Iran's assertion that it has "full control over the Strait of Hormuz area and controls all movements in it," Fadavi added.

The announcement - which narrowed down a timeframe for the exercises the Guards had previously only given as "soon" - risked aggravating tensions with the West over the strait.

The waterway is the world's "most important chokepoint" for oil tankers, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administrations. Some 20 percent of the world's oil flows through the narrow channel at the entrance to the Gulf.

Iran's regular navy completed 10 days of war games to the east of the strait, in the Gulf of Oman, early this week with tests of three anti-ship missiles.

Iran's military and political leaders have warned they could close the strait if increased Western sanctions halt Iranian oil exports.

The navy has also warned it will react if the United States tries to redeploy one of its aircraft carriers to the waterway.

The Revolutionary Guards, who use high-speed skiffs mounted with missile launchers and other lightweight vessels, periodically hold maneuvers in and around the Strait of Hormuz.

The last ones took place in July 2011 and included the firing of several anti-ship missiles, including two Khalij Fars missiles with a range of 190 miles.

Fadavi did not give details of the new maneuvers.

"The 7th in the series of Great Prophet Maneuvers will be conducted in the area of the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. They will have significant differences from the previous ones," Fars quoted him as saying.

Israel and U.S. to Hold Joint Missile Drill

JERUSALEM - Israel and the United States are to hold a joint missile defense exercise, the Israeli military said late Jan. 5.

Although the exercise, codenamed "Austere Challenge 12," comes at a time of spiraling regional tensions over Iran's suspected nuclear arms program, the army said the maneuvers were planned in advance.

"The exercise scenario involves notional, simulated events as well as some field training and is not in response to any real-world event," the military said in a written response to an AFP query

"The U.S. European Command and the Israel Defence Forces periodically conduct routine exercises in Israel. These exercises, which are part of along-standing strategic partnership, are planned in advance and part of a routine training cycle designed to improve the interoperability of our defence systems."

It did not say when the exercise would take place. Local media said that it would get underway in the spring and would be the biggest ever joint maneuvers between the two allies.

Israel and the United States have a longstanding strategic alliance and are jointly developing the Arrow anti ballistic missile system.

In November the Jewish state staged a major civil defense drill in the Tel Aviv region aimed at simulating a response to conventional and non-conventional missile attacks.

Although Iran says its nuclear program is for civilian use only, the international community believes it is striving to acquire nuclear arms and Israel says that it is a prime target of the Islamic republic.

Iran has threatened to close the strategic Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of the world's oil flows, if it is hit with sanctions, and has warned the United States not to send an aircraft carrier back into the Gulf.

Last week it test-fired three missiles during war games east of the strait at the entrance to the Gulf.

Iran Renews Warning to U.S. on Aircraft Carriers

TEHRAN, Iran - Iran on Jan. 4 renewed its warning to America against keeping a U.S. Navy presence in the oil-rich Persian Gulf, underlining a threat that Washington has dismissed as a sign of "weakness" from Tehran.

"The presence of forces from beyond the [Gulf] region has no result but turbulence. We have said the presence of forces from beyond the region in the Persian Gulf is not needed and is harmful," Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi said, according to state television's website.

"The long-term presence of the United States in the region increases insecurity and the possibility of tensions and of confrontation," the deputy chief of Iran's forces, Masoud Jazayeri, said, according to the Revolutionary Guards website.

"As a result ... the United States must leave the region," Jazayeri said.

Jazayeri noted the exit of the U.S. aircraft carrier John C. Stennis from the Gulf last week and said: "Since you've gone, don't come back, otherwise you'll be responsible for any problems."

The comments echoed a Jan. 3 warning that Iran would unleash its "full force" if a U.S. carrier is redeployed to the Gulf.

"We don't have the intention of repeating our warning, and we warn only once," Brig. Gen. Ataollah Salehi, the armed forces chief, said as he told Washington to keep its carrier out of the Gulf.

The White House on Jan. 3 brushed off the warning, saying it "reflects the fact that Iran is in a position of weakness" as it struggles under international sanctions.

The U.S. Defense Department said it would not alter its deployment of warships to the Gulf.

Iran has just finished 10 days of navy war games near the strategic Strait of Hormuz, at the entrance of the Gulf, meant to show it was capable of controlling the channel and closing it if necessary. Twenty percent of the world's oil ships through the strait.

The exercises climaxed on Jan. 2 with the Iranian navy test-firing three types of missile designed to sink warships.

The head of Iran's parliamentary national security and foreign policy commission, Aladdin Borujerdi, was quoted by the Fars news agency saying the U.S. description of Iran being weak "is a completely illogical stance."

He added: "The U.S. talks about sanctioning our oil but they should know that if Iran's oil exports from the Persian Gulf are sanctioned, then no-one will have the right to export oil through the Strait of Hormuz."

The developments have helped send the prices of oil soaring, though they pulled back a little on Jan. 4. Brent North Sea crude contracts in London were selling for $111.58 per barrel. New York trading of West Texas Intermediate crude was at $102.30 per barrel.

The Pentagon said in a statement it would continue the rotation of its 11 aircraft carriers to the Gulf to support military operations in the region and keep the Strait of Hormuz open.

"We are committed to protecting maritime freedoms that are the basis for global prosperity; this is one of the main reasons our military forces operate in the region," it said in a statement.

The increasingly tense situation in the Gulf was taking place as Iran struggled with turmoil on its domestic currency market.

Foreign exchange shops on Jan. 4 were shuttered as traders refused to comply with a central bank order putting an artificial cap on the value of the dollar against the Iranian rial, which has come under intense pressure in recent days.

The central bank also cut in half, to $1,000, the amount of dollars travelers flying abroad could buy.

Iranian authorities were trying to shore up their currency following its slide to a record low Jan. 2, days after the United States enacted new sanctions targeting Iran's central bank.

Tehran, however, insisted the volatility of the rial was not because of sanctions.

It "definitely has nothing to do with sanctions," foreign ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said Jan. 3.

The United States and other Western nations have imposed sanctions on Iran's economy over Tehran's controversial nuclear program, which they believe is being used to develop atomic weapons. Iran has repeatedly denied that allegation, saying the program is purely for energy and medical uses.

Iran Keeps Tensions High Over Oil Strait

TEHRAN - Iran kept tensions simmering Dec. 31 over its threat to close the Strait of Hormuz to oil tankers by readying war game missile tests near the entrance to the Persian Gulf.

AN IRANIAN WAR-BOAT fires a missile Dec. 30 during the 'Velayat-90' navy exercises in the Strait of Hormuz. (Ali Mohammadi / AFP via Getty Images)

Washington has warned a closure of the strait "will not be tolerated" after Iranian Vice President Reza Rahimi's threat this week that "not a drop of oil" will pass through the channel if more Western sanctions are imposed over Tehran's nuclear program.

Iran has brushed off the warning from the United States, which bases its Fifth Fleet in the Gulf, with Iranian navy chief Adm. Habibollah Sayari saying it would be "really easy" to close the strait.

A spokesman for the Iranian navy, Commodore Mahmoud Mousavi, told state television on Dec. 31 that, "in the next days, we will test-fire all kinds of surface-to-sea, sea-to-sea and surface-to-air as well as shoulder-launched missiles" in the final stages of the war games.

He did not say exactly when the launches would start, but explained they would involve tests of "medium- and long-range missiles" to evaluate their operational effectiveness.

The navy exercises started Dec. 24 and are due to end on Jan. 2.

Twenty percent of the world's oil moves through the Strait of Hormuz, at the entrance of the Gulf, making it the "most important chokepoint" globally, according to information released Dec. 30 by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Around 14 crude oil tankers per day pass through the narrow strait, carrying a total 17 million barrels. In all, 35 percent of all seaborne oil transited through there this year.

On Dec. 29, a U.S. aircraft carrier and an accompanying missile cruiser passed through the zone where the Iranian navy was conducting its drill. U.S. officials insisted it was a routine passage.

No confrontation occurred, though an Iranian military aircraft flew in close to record video of the aircraft carrier, which was then shown on state television.

Analysts and oil market traders have been watching developments in and around the Strait of Hormuz carefully, fearing that the intensifying war of words between arch foes Tehran and Washington could spark open confrontation.

With tensions rising, the United States said it has signed a $29.4-billion dealto supply Iran's chief rival in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia, with 84 new fighter jets.

The sale was a "strong message" to the Gulf region, Washington said.

Iran is subject to four rounds of U.N. sanctions over its nuclear program, which many Western countries allege is being used to develop atomic weapons.

Tehran denies the allegation.

The United States and its allies have also imposed unilateral sanctions on Iran's economy.

The last lot of unilateral sanctions triggered a demonstration in Tehran that led to members of the Basij militia controlled by the Revolutionary Guards ransacking the British embassy. London reacted by closing the mission and ordering Iran's embassy in Britain closed.

More sanctions are on the way.

U.S. President Barack Obama is expected to soon sign into law additional restrictions on Iran's central bank, which acts as the main conduit for Iranian oil sales.

The European Union is considering other measures that could include an EU embargo on Iranian oil imports, with foreign ministers to meet on the issue in a month's time.

Iran's oil minister, Rostam Qasemi, told the Aseman weekly that sanctions "will drive up the price of oil to at least 200 dollar" per barrel.

Iran's top nuclear negotiator, Saeed Jalili, was quoted by the Iranian media telling Islamic republic's envoys who have been gathered in Tehran that "we will give a resounding and many-pronged response to any threat against the Islamic Republic of Iran."

But he and other officials also left the door open to resuming long-stalled talks on Iran's nuclear program.

Addressing world powers involved in the talks, Jalili said: "We officially told them to come back to the negotiation based on cooperation."

Iran's ambassador to Germany, Alireza Sheikh-Attar, told the Mehr news agency on Dec. 31 that "we will soon send a letter, after which (new) talks will be scheduled."

Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi was also quoted by a website of the state broadcaster as telling a visiting Chinese foreign ministry official that "Iran is prepared for the continuation of nuclear negotiations" on the basis of a Russian proposal.

Thatcher Warned Over Navy Before Falklands Invasion

LONDON - Prime minister Margaret Thatcher was warned about the risks in slashing Britain's navy, a year before the 1982 Argentine invasion of the Falkland Islands, secret files released Dec. 30 showed.

Her foreign secretary Lord Peter Carrington also warned defense secretary John Nott that axing Britain's Antarctic patrol ship would send all the wrong signals about London's willingness to defend the Falklands.

Documents released after 30 years locked away in Britain's National Archives showed that the head of the Royal Navy was fuming in 1981 about planned defense cuts.

First sea lord Adm. Henry Leach, who later told Thatcher that Britain could and should send a naval task force to retake the Falklands following the April 1982 invasion, was furious with her a year earlier over her "unbalanced devastation" of the armed forces.

"I note with regret but understanding that the tightness of your program precludes your seeing me personally as requested," he wrote in a stinging note to the premier.

"I am confident however that you will at least spare two minutes to read this note from the professional head of the navy before you and your Cabinet colleagues consider a proposition substantially to dismantle that navy."

Leach concluded: "We are on the brink of a historic decision.

"War seldom takes the expected form and a strong maritime capability provides flexibility for the unforeseen. If you erode it to the extent envisaged I believe you will foreclose your future options and prejudice our national security."

The files also include a letter from Carrington to Nott, urging him against axing the Antarctic patrol ship HMS Endurance, warning it would send the wrong signal to Buenos Aires at a time of tension over the Falklands.

"Unless and until the dispute is settled, it will be important to maintain our normal presence in the area at the current level," he wrote. "Any reduction would be interpreted by both the islanders and the Argentines as a reduction in our commitment to the Islands and in our willingness to defend them."

His appeal was, however, rejected and HMS Endurance was less than a month from being withdrawn from service when the first Argentinians landed on Britain's South Georgia overseas territory in March 1982.

Diplomatic friction between Argentina and Britain has intensified since 2010, when London authorized oil prospecting around the islands, which have a population of around 3,000.

Britain would "never" negotiate the sovereignty of the Falklands against its citizens' wishes, Prime Minister David Cameron said in a Christmas message to the Falklands.

Thatcher, now 86, retired from politics and suffering from dementia, is back in the limelight thanks to the biopic film "The Iron Lady," which hits cinemas around the world next month.