U.S. warns against North Korea's provocations

WASHINGTON — The United States urged China on Jan. 19 to press North Korea’s new leader to exercise restraint, saying that South Korea would face “enormous pressure” to respond to any provocations.
Kurt Campbell, the top U.S. diplomat on Asia, admitted that little was known about North Korea’s young leader Kim Jong-Un and warned that “provocative steps have the risk of triggering deeply unforeseen consequences.”
“We need to handle the situation with the greatest care and we expect China in their deliberations with North Korea to ensure that that message is deeply understood,” Campbell said at the Stimson Center think-tank, echoing remarks made on a tour of East Asia earlier this month.
North Korea in 2010 shelled an island in the South and was accused of torpedoing a warship, incidents that killed 50 people and which some analysts saw as a way for young heir Kim to prove his mettle.
Campbell, an assistant secretary of state, said that South Korean President Lee Myung-Bak, a close U.S. ally, showed “remarkable restraint” after the deaths.
“But their leaders have made clear that they’ve reached a point that if they faced further provocations, they would have enormous pressure to respond.
And we understand that,” Campbell said.
China is the closest ally of isolated North Korea, although Campbell said that even officials in Beijing were in the dark about Kim Jong-Il’s Dec. 17 death until North Korean state television announced the news two days later.
Kim’s death threw into flux U.S. plans for fresh diplomacy with North Korea, including a possible resumption of American food assistance to the impoverished state and more formal talks on ending Pyongyang’s nuclear program.
“We have made clear through both public channels and privately that we are prepared to start a new chapter to deal clearly with outstanding issues of nuclear matters and the like,” Campbell said.
Campbell met Jan. 17 with senior officials from Japan and South Korea to coordinate action. In a statement, the countries urged North Korea to recommit to past agreements to end its nuclear program.

U.S. joins Europe in drive for code of conduct for outer space

BRUSSELS — The European Union hopes to organize multilateral meetings this year leading to an international code of conduct for outer space that would be broadly adopted, an EU source said.

Momentum has been building as the U.S. recently said it will join the EU and other countries in their efforts to come up with an international code.

“The United States has decided to join with the European Union and other nations to develop an International Code of Conduct for Outer Space Activities. A Code of Conduct will help maintain the long-term sustainability, safety, stability, and security of space by establishing guidelines for the responsible use of space,” U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said in a Jan. 17 statement.

“The long-term sustainability of our space environment is at serious risk from space debris and irresponsible actors,” the statement said. “Unless the international community addresses these challenges, the environment around our planet will become increasingly hazardous to human spaceflight and satellite systems, which would create damaging consequences for all of us.”

However, the statement adds that the U.S. “has made clear to our partners that we will not enter into a code of conduct that in any way constrains our national security-related activities in space or our ability to protect the U.S. and our allies.”

In a separate statement, the U.S. says that “the European Union’s draft Code of Conduct is a good foundation for the development of a non-legally binding International Code of Conduct focused on the use of voluntary and pragmatic transparency and confidence-building measures to help prevent mishaps, misperceptions, and mistrust in space”.

In 2010, the EU agreed on a draft for a Code of Conduct for Outer Space Activities, which it is using as a basis for consultations with non-EU countries. One key principle in the code that other countries may adopt is “the responsibility of states, in the conduct of scientific, commercial and military activities, to promote the peaceful exploration and use of outer space and to take all appropriate measures to prevent outer space from becoming an area of conflict.”

An EU source said Russia was one of the first countries to be consulted by the EU and that the EU has been very active consulting other countries.

"Attack on Iran would be catastrophe " says Russia

MOSCOW — Russia on Jan. 18 said a military strike on Iran would be a “catastrophe” with the severest consequences that risked inflaming existing tensions between Sunni and Shiite Muslims.

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also accused the West of trying to suffocate the Iranian economy and incite popular discontent with new sanctions such as a proposed oil embargo.

“As for the chances of this catastrophe happening, you would have to ask those constantly mentioning it as an option that remains on the table,” Lavrov said when asked about the chances of military action.

Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak had earlier said his country was not even close to deciding to attack Iran over its nuclear weapons program and still believed that a military option remained “very far away.”

Lavrov told an annual foreign policy briefing that the chances of war were too dire too contemplate because they would incite intercommunal tensions in the region and flood neighboring countries with Iranian refugees.

“I have no doubt in the fact that it will only add fuel to the fire of the still-simmering Sunni-Shiite conflict. And I do not know where the subsequent chain reaction will end, Lavrov said.

“There will be large flows of refugees from Iran, including to Azerbaijan, and from Azerbaijan to Russia. ... This will not be a walk in the park,” he said of possible military involvement.

Lavrov added that punitive sanctions aimed at winning more transparency from Iran had “exhausted” themselves and only hurt the chances of peace.

“Additional unilateral sanctions against Iran have nothing to do with a desire to ensure the regime’s commitment to nuclear non-proliferation,” Lavrov said. “It is seriously aimed at suffocating the Iranian economy and the well being of its people, probably in the hope of inciting discontent.”

His comments came as European Union diplomats closed in on a July date for a full oil embargo that would suit nations such as Italy with a strong reliance on Iranian supplies.

Lavrov said Russia had evidence that Iran was ready to cooperate closely with inspectors from the United Nations IAEA nuclear watchdog and was preparing for “serious talks” with the West.

He also hinted that Europe and the United States were imposing the measures with the specific purpose of torpedoing new rounds of talks.

Russia has been one of the few world powers to enjoy open access to senior Iranian leaders and on Jan. 18 hosted its Supreme National Security Council deputy chief Ali Bagheri.

The Iranian embassy said Bagheri would hold talks with Lavrov and discuss the option of resuming nuclear negotiations with the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany.

Moscow was also due to receive Iranian Interior Minister Mostafa Mohammad Najjar on Jan. 22 for talks focusing on domestic security issues and drug trafficking.

Tehran’s ambassador to Moscow for his part said he expected Russia’s support to continue because it too was being threatened by the West.

“We expect Russia not to agree to a deal with the West,” Iranian Ambassador Mahmoud Reza Sajjadi told the Interfax news agency.

“If there are (non-Western) countries that want to see Iran become a victim of the West, they must understand that the West will get to them too,” said Sajjadi. “We hope that the Russian government and the Russian people will take note of this.”

India Hopes To Unveil Fighter Deal in 2 Weeks

NEW DELHI — India hopes to unveil within two weeks the winner of a $12-billion fighter jet deal for which France’s Dassault and the Eurofighter consortium are on a final short list, the air force said Jan. 17.

“Right now we have to do the selection for who is going to be the short-listed vendor,” Indian Air Force chief N.A.K. Browne said in New Delhi. “I am hopeful that in another two weeks time, we will be able to short list the name,” Browne told reporters on the sidelines of a military function, the Press Trust of India news agency reported.

The contract is one of the biggest under consideration in the global defense aviation industry at the moment.

The air force chief said final commercial negotiations would only start after India announced the lowest bidder.

Officials say “life-cycle” maintenance costs of each plane will determine the winner of the deal. The contract is for the outright purchase of 18 combat aircraft with another 108 to be built in India with options to acquire more.

India last April cut out U.S. bidders Boeing and Lockheed Martin as well as dropping Sweden’s Saab AB and the Russian makers of the MiG 35 from the race.

Such a large order attracted intense lobbying during visits to India last year by U.S. President Barack Obama, French President Nicolas Sarkozy, British Prime Minister David Cameron and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.

India, the biggest importer of military hardware among emerging nations, issued the request for proposals in 2007 and trials of aircraft from the six companies competing for the deal began a year later.

U.S., Allies Plot Next Steps on Post-Kim N. Korea

WASHINGTON — Senior officials from the United States and close allies South Korea and Japan met Jan. 17 to coordinate their next steps on North Korea amid deep concern following the death of leader Kim Jong-Il.

The United States was considering a new engagement drive with North Korea when Kim suddenly died on Dec. 17, leaving control of the isolated and nuclear-armed state to his young and inexperienced son Kim Jong-Un.

Kurt Campbell, the top U.S. diplomat on Asia, went into a day of closed-door talks with his Japanese counterpart Shinsuke Sugiyama and Lim Sung-Nam, South Korea’s envoy to stalled nuclear talks on North Korea, a U.S. official said.

State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said Jan. 13 that the talks “will focus on ensuring that we’re well coordinated on our policy towards North Korea” and also look at “broader regional issues writ large.”

The three countries comprise half of the six nations involved in years of diplomacy on North Korea’s denuclearization. The talks also involved China, Russia and Pyongyang itself.

North Korea stormed out of talks in April 2009 to protest what it described as U.S. hostility. It has since sought to resume dialogue, but the United States has insisted that Pyongyang clearly recommit to agreements on denuclearization.

In hopes of keeping open channels of communication, the United States held two rounds of talks with North Korea last year in New York and Geneva.

A third round was reportedly scheduled in Beijing before the announcement of Kim’s death put the process on hold. The North said last week that Washington had offered it food aid and a suspension of sanctions if it halts its uranium enrichment program.

Nuland last week denied that the United States was linking food to politics and said Washington was still considering North Korea’s longstanding requests for food assistance.

“Our decision will be based on our assessment of need and our ability to monitor what we might be able to provide,” she said.

Christian-oriented U.S. aid groups have said for months that North Korea desperately needs food assistance to save lives. But some South Korean policymakers and U.S. lawmakers accuse the North of exaggerating its needs.

'Dangerous Cargo' Ship Arrives in Syria: Source

MOSCOW - A Russian ship suspected of carrying munitions for Damascus arrived in the Syrian port of Tartus on "Jan. 11 or 12," shipping expert Mikhail Voitenko said.

The ship Chariot arrived at Tartus on January 11 or 12," Voitenko said Jan. 14, basing his conclusions on an examination of data from the vessel's automatic identification system transponder.

"After leaving Limassol, the ship set sail for Tartus. After travelling two-thirds of the way, the team unplugged the AIS transponder," he added.

He believed that the vessel has docked at the Syrian port, he said. It was Voitenko who in 2009 revealed the mysterious disappearance of an Arctic Sea ship, an incident that sparked international concern.

A source from the ship's operator Westberg said Jan. 13 that the ship transporting "dangerous" cargo was bound for Syria.

According to Russian media, the vessel may be transporting up to 60 tons of ammunition supplied by Russian state arms exporter Rosoboronexport through freight company Balchart.

Chariot stopped over in Cyprus for refueling and was allowed to set sail from the port of Limassol after its Russian owners agreed to change the destination to Turkey rather than Syria.

But the crew decided to revert to its original itinerary after leaving the Cypriot port, according to a Westberg source.

Westberg Ltd., which is headquartered in St Petersburg, could not be reached by AFP.

The United States on Jan. 13 raised concerns with Russia and Cyprus over the ship.

For 10 months now Syria has been in the grips of an uprising against the regime of President Bashar al-Assad. According to U.N. estimates made last month, the government crackdown has cost more than 5,000 lives.

Western leaders have called for the embattled strongman to step down but Moscow has steadfastly stuck by its ally.

India Casts Wider Net for Short-Range Missiles

NEW DELHI - The Indian Army has entered the global market to buy short-range surface-to-air missile (SRSAM) systems for $1.5 billion, a move that could further undercut a four-year effort to develop a system with MBDA of France.

The Army convinced the Indian Defence Ministry there is an urgent requirement for SRSAM, said Army sources, and did not want to wait for the Maitri project conceived four years ago. India and France have not been able to agree on details of the Maitri project, including funding arrangements, the source added.

The Army last month sent global tenders to defense companies in Europe, the United States and Russia including Raytheon of the U.S., Israel's Rafael, MBDA and Thales of France, Diehl Defence of Germany, KBP Tula and Rosoboronexport of Russia, Ukraineexport of Ukraine and LIG NEX1 of South Korea.

The requirements of the SRSAM are similar to those of the proposed Indo-French Maitri project, the Army source said.

The current tender is for two regiments (36 systems, 1,000 missiles) estimated to cost about $800 million each. The total Indian Army requirement is likely to be about eight regiments in the next five to seven years.

The Maitri project was proposed to be jointly developed by India's Defence Research and Development Laboratory and MBDA.

The selected vendor will have to transfer technology of the systems, as well.

The supply will be made in two batches and completed within five years of the signing of the tender, including the launchers, sensors, vehicles for transportation and the missiles. The system must have a service life of at least 20 years and the missiles of not less than eight years.

The SRSAM system should be able to engage multiple targets, including those flying up to 500 meters per second, and have a maximum range of not less than 15 kilometers.

In 2009, India bought two regiments of Spyder quick-reaction surface-to-air missile systems from Rafael. Another Indo-Israeli joint project is the $2.5 billion long-range surface-to-air missile project signed in 2009 and expected to be inducted in 2013, Indian Defence Ministry sources said.

Meanwhile, the Indian Army has begun inducting the homemade medium-range Akash, which has a range of up to 30 kilometers. In 2011, the Indian Army ordered the induction of two Akash regiments at a cost of about $3 billion.

The Army also has been negotiating the purchase of David Sling and Iron Dome missile interceptor systems.

Asian Navies Shift to Bigger Vessels, Downplay Littoral Ops

TAIPEI - As Western navies build fewer aircraft carriers, destroyers and submarines, Asian navies are moving in the opposite direction, ignoring the littorals with construction and procurement of larger warships and submarines.

The U.S. and Europe have stepped back from larger platforms designed for the Cold War and invested in smaller platforms such as the U.S. Navy's Freedom-class Littoral Combat Ship (LCS). But this is not the case in East Asia and the Pacific, where there have been increases in spending on destroyers and submarines in Australia, China, India, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, said Bob Nugent, vice president of naval advisory services at AMI International, based in Seattle.

One of the most notable cases involves Taiwan's procurement of four Kidd-class guided missile destroyers and plans to procure eight submarines. Japan and South Korea have also invested heavily in guided missile destroyers equipped with advanced phased array radars.

Even in budget-challenged Southeast Asian countries, the trend has been a shift from smaller to larger platforms, such as frigates and large corvettes. Examples include Singapore's Formidable-class frigates, Indonesia's SIGMA-class corvettes, Malaysia's recent decision on the SGPV/LCS frigates, and Vietnam's plan to buy SIGMAs and the pending delivery of Russian-built Kilo-class submarines.

The main reason regional navies are ignoring littoral capabilities has to do with geography. In the region, "the home team enjoys an enormous advantage of range and proximity and the attacker would have to be prepared to conduct pre-emptive strikes against the coast state's bases before conducting operations in the littoral," said Sam Bateman a regional naval specialist at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, in Singapore.

The U.S. Navy should "think twice" about deploying classic sea control/power projection capabilities, such as carrier battle groups, within range of subs and land-based strike aircraft, Bateman said. The U.S. Navy's new LCS will be "hugely vulnerable without close-air support and that cannot be guaranteed."

The U.S. and Singapore have recently agreed to allow the U.S. Navy to station the LCS in Singapore.

Air support is the "elephant in the room" with littoral warfare, Bateman said. Littoral warfare is dependent on fire support directed against targets on land, either from aircraft close-air support or naval gunfire. Despite all the advances with missiles, "the big caliber naval gun remains an attractive and effective way of putting down fire in coastal areas."

Another problem in the Asia-Pacific has been increased tension over exclusive economic zone (EEZ) claims, particularly in the South China Sea. Many countries, including China, claim restrictions over naval operations in their EEZs.

Some within the region have invested in stealthy vessels to avoid detection in the littoral environment. Singapore's Formidable-class frigates are based on the stealthy French-built La Fayette-class frigates and Singapore's ST Engineering is conducting research to develop the 27-meter Stealth Interceptor and 57-meter Stealth Patrol Vessel.

Taiwan wants to build a stealthy 900-ton catamaran corvette and is manufacturing a stealthy 180-ton fast-attack missile patrol boat, armed with Hsiung Feng-2 anti-ship missiles. The stealthy SIGMA-class corvettes procured by Indonesia and now being considered by Vietnam are other examples.

For Asian countries dealing with the littoral issue, the challenge is finding the right investment balance among intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) and defensive and offensive technologies, Nugent said.

"Unmanned systems are critical to ISR and defense in the littoral now and will become more so for offensive littoral warfare as unmanned maritime systems are more widely armed for all domains in the future," he said. Investments in better sensors and C4ISR are the other areas where the "gaps that create vulnerabilities in ship's self-defense against missiles and torpedoes in the littoral are getting a lot of attention."

Another area of growing interest is the use of unmanned surface vehicles (USV) and unmanned underwater vehicles (UUV). ST Engineering is developing the 9-meter Venus USV ostensibly for harbor patrol, but the vessel has potential for littoral warfare.

USVs and UUVs will be "particularly useful for littoral warfare as they can be launched outside the EEZ or convenient surveillance range of the coastal state, which is unlikely to have the capabilities of detecting them," Bateman said. "They can be used for surveillance/intelligence collection and as an offensive weapon - to lay mines or fire torpedoes," he said.

There is also potential for anti-submarine warfare, but that capability is as yet "unrealized."

Russian Ship Heads to Syria with Weapons: Report

ST. PETERSBURG, Russia - A Russian ship carrying a "dangerous cargo" has sailed for Syria after a brief stopover in Cyprus, despite a pledge reportedly given to Cypriot authorities, the vessel's owner said Jan. 13.

An independent Russian military analyst separately reported that the ship was likely to dock at the Syrian port of Tartus with what media said may be up to 60 ton of ammunition supplied by the state Russian arms exporter.

The Cypriot foreign ministry said Jan. 11 the Saint Vincent-flagged cargo ship was allowed to refuel and set sail from the port of Limassol after its Russian owners agreed to change the destinationfrom Syria.

Cyprus inspectors said the ship's documents showed Turkey as an alternative destination point.

But the vessel's St. Petersburg-based operator Westberg Ltd said the Chariot decided to keep to its original schedule after leaving the Cyprus port.

"It was classified as a dangerous cargo, but that could really mean anything. We are not responsible for knowing what was inside the crates," a source at the shipping company told AFP.

The source refused to confirm a Russian state media report saying the cargo was being shipped by the state arms export agency Rosoboronexport through a freight company called Balchart.

Both Rosoboronexport and Balchart declined to comment when contacted by AFP.

But the respected Russian shipping analyst Mikhail Voitenko said on his Maritime Bulletin website on Jan. 12 that the Chariot had taken a direct course for the port of Tartus where Russia has a naval base.

He added that the ship's precise current location could not be determined because it had switched off its international tracking device about half way between Cyprus and Syria.

Moscow has defended Syrian strongman Bashar al-Assad against global pressure and has argued that its ongoing arms sales were permitted under international law and would continue.

A Russian military source said on Dec. 1 that Moscow had delivered supersonic cruise missiles to Syria that protect the Arab state's shoreline against a naval attack.

Russia Vows Review After Villager Finds 79 AK47s

MOSCOW - A villager in provincial Russia has caused a national scandal after finding 79 Kalashnikov assault rifles in crates that he bought to use as firewood, Russian media reported on Jan. 13.

A truck driver was supposed to take the crates for disposal from the factory in the central city of Izhevsk where Kalashnikovs are manufactured, but he thought they were empty and sold them to the unnamed villager.

The man who had hoped to use the wood as fuel for his stove called the police, and an investigation was launched amid concerns about security at the nationally renowned Izhmash arms factory, local police said.

"Probably there are weapons in other boxes as well. We must check how weapons were stored and utilized and whether anything else is missing," a police spokesman said according to news agency ITAR-TASS.

The case caused Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin to express exasperation on his Twitter feed.

"A pensioner has found dozens of Kalashnikov rifles. Oh my!" Rogozin wrote.

He said that he would travel to Izhevsk later this month to hold talks at the Izhmash weapons plant.

The Kalashnikov AK47 and its more modern versions are the weapons of choice for dozens of armies and guerrilla groups around the world.

More than 100 million Kalashnikovs have been sold worldwide and they are widely used by fighters in conflict zones such as Iraq, Afghanistan and Somalia.

The designer of the AK47, Mikhail Kalashnikov, was given the prestigious 'Hero of Russia' award in 2009, and there is a museum in Izhevsk entirely devoted to his life and work.

Russia Open to NATO Defense Cooperation: Official

BRUSSELS - Russia's outgoing permanent representative to NATO, Dmitry Rogozin, has pointed to the country's openness to defense cooperation with NATO partners at a press conference at NATO headquarters on Jan. 13.

"We should abandon any political confrontation [between NATO and Russia]," he said. "Russia is interested in enhancing its defense potential. ... Only partners trade arms."

He said Russia was very interested in cooperation with other countries on innovation, research and creating joint ventures. For example, he noted the country's interest in NATO projects such as Standex, or stand-off detection of suicide bombers.

He added that Russia will do all it can to have a modern military industrial complex and is also interested in cooperation with NATO partners in buying new types of armaments.

"In the 21st century, we believe that Russia should go back to fully fledged participation in Europe," he said.

Rogozin will be returning to Russia as vice prime minister in charge of defense industry policy. His tasks will include potential threats to Russia's security, including, the development of the country's navy.

Rogozin, who will be in charge of negotiations with the U.S. and NATO on the thorny issue of missile defense capacity, stressed that the system cannot contain "offensive elements" and must include a Russian role.

"If we believe the missile defense system is designed to give more security to Europe, then it can only be done with Russian participation" Rogozin said.

"If it is antagonistic to Russian interests ... this will lead to an exacerbation of relations with the West. It is up to our U.S. partners to come up with a system concentrated on deploying additional sites that does not infringe the interests of neighbors but engages neighbors in its work."

Bulgaria 2011 Arms Sales Total $380M: Report

SOFIA, Bulgaria - Bulgaria's defense industry has escaped unscathed from the general economic crisis, with its exports hitting $380 million in 2011, Pressa newspaper reported Jan. 12.

It cited figures by the Bulgarian Defense Industry Association (BDIA). Such statistics are usually kept secret.

The organization, which groups Bulgaria's major arms and munitions makers, refused to specify where its sales went to.

The newspaper however cited Algeria, Afghanistan, the United States and Iraq as traditional buyers of Bulgarian light weapons and ammunition.

Bulgaria's defense industry exports had stood at $200 million in 2008, Pressa said citing data from the same association.

"It is still hard to compare the situation with the years before (the fall of communism in) 1989," BDIA co-chairman Stefan Vodenicharov told the newspaper.

Before the end of communism, Bulgaria's armaments industry was around 10 times the size it is now, employing 115,000 people and shipped abroad an annual $700 million to $800 million worth of armaments - at prices from then.

But the advent of democracy, the disbanding of the Warsaw Pact and a number of international arms sales embargoes to countries in Africa and the Arab world plunged the industry into a deep crisis in the 1990s.

The majority of production facilities have since been privatized with the government recently selling its remaining stock in the Arsenal Kazanlak light arms and munitions plant, the only licensed producer of Russian Kalashnikov assault rifles during the Cold War.

It had also prepared a strategy to soon put on the table VMZ Sopot, its biggest defense firm to remain fully state-owned.

Cyprus Releases Syria-Bound Ammunition Ship

NICOSIA, Cyprus - Cypriot authorities released on Jan. 11 a cargo ship carrying tons of munitions after receiving a pledge the vessel would not proceed to unrest-swept Syria as originally scheduled.

The foreign ministry said the Saint Vincent-flagged cargo ship Chariot was allowed to refuel and set sail from the port of Limassol after its Russian owners agreed to change the destination.

The ship, which set sail from Saint Petersburg on Dec. 9, called into Limassol on Jan. 10 following bad weather, said government spokesman Stefanos Stefanou.

During a check of the ship's documents it was "determined the ship was carrying dangerous cargo destined for Syria and Turkey" and prevented from setting sail, the foreign ministry said.

The ministry said it was unable to physically check the four containers on board due to a lack of space to maneuver, but after consultations with the owners, the vessel was given the green light.

However, the media said the ship carried tons of munitions and explosives and was put under guard.

The Chariot was reportedly carrying between 35 and 60 tons of munitions and explosives bound for the port of Latakia in Syria, where thousands of people have been killed since March in a government crackdown on dissent.

"The rules and decisions of the Council of the European Union governing restrictive measures in relation to the situation in Syria were taken into account. It was ascertained no EU measures were violated," the ministry said.

Stefanou told state radio it was decided the vessel would be released after the ship agreed to change its destination and "not go to Syria," in keeping with "all international regulations."

The new destination was not disclosed.

The incident comes exactly six months after seized Iranian munitions exploded at a Cypriot naval base on July 11, killing six firemen and seven military personnel.

The containers had been at the base since their seizure in 2009 when Cyprus intercepted, under pressure from the United States and other Western nations, a Cypriot-flagged freighter bound from Iran for Syria.

The explosion of the containers, which had been stored in the open air, also knocked out the island's main power plant. Criminal charges against those deemed responsible are expected to be filed next week.

Cold War Treaty Puts U.S. in Corner Over China

The Cold War's most successful arms control agreement is imperiling U.S. forces and increasing the probability of a conflict in Asia.

The U.S.-Soviet Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty contributed to stability in Europe during the Cold War's final years by eliminating both nuclear and conventionally armed ground-launched cruise and ballistic missiles with ranges of between 500 and 5,500 kilometers.

Now, however, the treaty is preventing the U.S. and Russia from responding to a growing threat from China, which has been expanding its missile force at an unparalleled rate. China now has at least hundreds of ground-launched intermediate-range missiles. By comparison, Russia and the U.S. have none.

The last time Americans worried about a "missile gap" - a phrase consigned to history along with the Soviet Union - Gerald Ford was U.S. president, Berlin was a divided city and Taiwan was a U.S. treaty ally. With the Cold War's end and the emergence of a unipolar era, Americans, it was supposed, no longer needed to worry about comparing numbers of tanks, bombers and missiles.

But while Washington and Moscow were busy eliminating entire classes of missiles and with good reason, on the other side of the Eurasian land mass Beijing was investing in missile technology. Today, missiles play a central role in Chinese military strategy. And so, 20 years after the Soviet Union's dissolution, the U.S. is once again facing a missile gap, and unlike the missile gaps of the Cold War, there is no question as to this one's existence.

Why does this matter? The U.S.-China missile gap (and the Sino-Russian one, as well) creates strategic instability in a way that the perceived Cold War missile gaps never did. With its ground-based missiles, China can target U.S. and allied bases in the Asia-Pacific as far away as Guam, including key U.S. facilities in South Korea and Japan.

With its new anti-ship ballistic missile, also ground-launched, the People's Liberation Army will likewise be able to attack U.S. aircraft carriers and other capital ships at sea.

Because the U.S. cannot field intermediate-range missiles, it could not respond in kind to a missile strike on regional assets. Instead, it would have two options. It could rely on tactical fighters to carry out retaliatory strikes. Or, it could rely on longer-range options such as bombers or prompt global strike munitions (basically, conventionally armed intercontinental-range missiles).

Given Russia's lack of intermediate-range missiles, it would have similar options in responding to a Chinese missile attack.

The first option is highly escalatory because it involves an infringement of Chinese territorial integrity by a presumably large fighter force. It puts a higher number of American lives at risk and would engage a wider array of Chinese forces than a simpler tit-for-tat retaliatory missile strike. And reliance on tactical aircraft to respond to Chinese missile strikes could be problematic because those strikes might well have rendered U.S. airbases and aircraft carriers unusable, or worse.

Option two is potentially even more escalatory. Bombers and long-range missiles, after all, look an awful lot like nuclear delivery vehicles. China might very well be incapable of determining with what an incoming bomber or missile was armed. It is an open question whether Beijing would wait to find out before deciding how to respond.

Fortunately, the solution to this conundrum is quite clear. First, Washington and Moscow should invite Beijing (as well as other Asian states) to accede to the INF Treaty, or some updated version of it. If the Chinese decline the invitation, Russia and the U.S. should agree to abrogate the treaty while also agreeing to keep Europe free of those weapons, where a missile buildup would needlessly destabilize a largely stable region.

The U.S. military, and the Russian military if it desires, should then begin a spirited buildup of its own ground-based intermediate-range missile force in Asia.

Although counterintuitive, this would contribute to strategic stability. By developing more options for proportional responses to a Chinese military strike, the U.S. military would make escalation management an easier task, thus making vertical escalation much less likely. Such a move would also give Beijing incentive to sign up to a new INF treaty, as the value of its own missiles would be greatly diminished by a balanced U.S. missile force.

If other Asian states begin fielding theater-range ballistic missiles in large numbers as well - a likely scenario given their affordability and obvious merits - the need for a regionwide INF treaty would become apparent even to the Chinese.

But unless and until the U.S. narrows its missile gap with China, stability in Asia will continue to erode.

Michael Mazza is senior research associate, Foreign & Defense Policy Studies, at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington.

Future Dogfights

Pentagon Mishandling Mi-17 Helo Fleet: IG Report

The U.S. Defense Department has bungled the managing a fleet of Russian-built Mil Mi-17 Hip helicopters, the Pentagon's inspector general said in a report released Jan. 5.

The Pentagon has spent $1.6 billion over the last five years on what it calls non-standard rotary wing aircraft (NSRWA) and plans to spend an additional $1 billion in the future.

"DoD officials did not adequately manage the acquisition and support of NSRWA," the report reads. "Specifically, DoD officials were unable to identify a comprehensive list of all DoD-owned and supported Mi-17s, their total ownership costs, and all planned requirements in support of these aircraft."

That happened because the Pentagon didn't treat the program as a major procurement effort and instead took an ad hoc approach to managing the buy, the report says, and as a result DoD didn't get the most for its money.

The report recommends the Pentagon establish the NSRWA effort as a formal program, draw up proper documentation, consolidate various offices to which the program reports and designate the U.S. Army as executive agent for the aircraft.

South Korea, U.S. To Boost Guard Against North

SEOUL, South Korea - South Korea and the United States will soon sign a new plan on countering any North Korean attacks, Seoul said Jan. 4 amid international wariness over the abrupt leadership transition in Pyongyang.

"We believe there remains a possibility of provocations by the North during the power succession to Kim Jong Un," deputy defense minister Lim Kwan Bin told reporters.

The ministry said the South Korean military, in response to any attack, would ensure "the enemy threat, the source of the provocation and its supporting forces are completely removed".

The North has hailed Kim as "great successor" and appointed him military chief since his father and longtime leader Kim Jong Il died suddenly on Dec. 17.

Hopes that cross-border tensions might ease have not so far materialized, and some analysts believe the untested son, aged in his late 20s, may try to bolster his credentials by staging a limited border incident.

The new regime has already vowed retaliation against Seoul for alleged disrespect during the mourning period for Kim and vowed never to deal with its current conservative government.

More than 100,000 people rallied Jan. 3 in Pyongyang in support of Kim Jong Un, the North's state media reported. It also released footage of his visit Jan. 1 to an armored division.

The South's defense ministry, in a policy document for 2012, said the allies would sign the joint counter-provocation plan this month, as agreed last October.

U.S. and South Korean troops already hold regular annual joint exercises.

"Once the joint operational (counter-provocation) plan is signed, we will engage in more exercises that will help us execute it," Lim said. "It will specify how such exercises should be held."

The two Koreas have remained technically at war since their 1950-53 conflict ended only with a ceasefire. The United States has based troops in the South ever since and now has 28,500 in the country.

Cross-border tensions have been high since the South accused the North of torpedoing a warship with the loss of 46 lives in March 2010.

Pyongyang denied involvement but eight months later shelled an island near the tense Yellow Sea border and killed four South Koreans.

South Korea has since strengthened troops and weaponry on its "frontline" islands.

In Washington, the State Department said Jan. 3 that the North's stated refusal to engage with South Korea bodes ill for efforts to revive six-party talks on Pyongyang's nuclear disarmament.

"That's not going to be conducive to getting back to the table," said spokeswoman Victoria Nuland.

The North said last week it would never have dealings "with the Lee Myung Bak group of traitors", in a reference to the South's president.

Nuland said the North should improve ties with the South and show its commitment to denuclearization before the six-party talks can resume.

The talks - chaired by China and involving the two Koreas, the United States, Japan and Russia - have been at a standstill since the last round in December 2008.