Japan F-X Announcement Due Within Hours

TOKYO - The Japanese government's sudden decision to delay the announcement of a winner in its multibillion-dollar fighter program is widely regarded as a sign that Lockheed Martin's F-35 has emerged as a late frontrunner despite concerns over cost and local workshare, according to government and industry sources.

F-35 JOINT STRIKE Fighters sit on the tarmac at Eglin Air Force Base, Fla., earlier this year. Japan is scheduled to make a decision Dec. 20 on the winner of its F-X fighter competition, and some say the F-35 is the favorite. (U.S. Air Force)

Japan's National Security Council was slated to announce Dec. 16 whether the F-35, Boeing's F/A-18 Super Hornet or the Eurofighter Typhoon will replace about 40 Mitsubishi F-4EJ Kai Phantoms starting in early 2017 under a contract valued at about $8 billion. The announcement has been moved to Tuesday, Dec. 20.

When the F-X competition began, the aim was to buy 48 air superiority fighters with little development cost and a large share of work for Japanese industry. The F-35 was considered a long shot because development was slipping, unit costs growing, and workshare prospects were more limited.

But Tokyo began to look more favorably on the plane after Japan was denied Lockheed's stealthy F-22 and concerns about China's military escalated.

Early last week, Japan's defense establishment was thrown into a furor following local media reports that the F-35 was the likely winner.

Senior government officials denied that any decision had been made.

But one source said the Joint Strike Fighter had long ago moved to the front of the pack because government officials decided that they wanted stealth, as much high technology as possible and a good relationship with the United States.

"The Japanese always wanted the JSF," said one source. "So they ended up with the result they wanted, and now the question is whether they can sustain it."

Picking the F-35 would invite criticism from the opposition and media of the plane's cost, schedule delays and a recent spate of reports that focused on shortcomings highlighted during development.

Critics may also charge that the competition has been less transparent than claimed, although executives of the three main contenders have said the MoD has been painstakingly careful to make the contest as fair and open as possible.

The stakes in the F-X competition go beyond replacing the F-4s; the winner is likely also to get the bigger prize of replacing more than 100 F-15Js within the next 10 years.

INTERNAL SPLIT

Shinichi Kiyotani, a military analyst and journalist, said the sudden delay in the announcement points to divisions within the MoD and the ruling Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) cabinet.

"There are internal discussions within the MoD; some bureaus are sold on it [the F-35], others aren't," Kiyotani said. "There is division at the top of the MoD, and there are still internal discussions within the DPJ Cabinet. There are so many problems with the F-35, it's seen as a huge risk."

Among other concerns, there's the question of whether the F-35 will offer enough local workshare to support Japan's ailing aerospace sector. The country's only active fighter-jet assembly line is slated to shut down after rolling out just six more Mitsubishi F-2s, a derivative of the F-16.

That consideration was seen as giving the edge to Eurofighter, which vowed to give Japanese industry as much as 95 percent of the work, or to Boeing, which said that more than 80 percent would be available. Lockheed offered less, but argued that access to next-generation production capabilities and coveted stealth technology outweighed financial value.

PERCEIVED RISKS

Kiyotani also noted concerns about the recent news of a slowdown in production of the F-35 caused by some lingering technical problems and the potential that U.S. politics and budget cuts could shrink the Pentagon's own purchase.

"The F-35 is already seen as very expensive. If the number of units is only a few a year, then that will push up costs," he said. "Nobody believes the Lockheed Martin story of an eventual $65 million or so a plane."

Alessio Patalano, a Japan military expert at King's College in London, agreed on the risks involved.

"Of these three options, the F-35 is on paper the one with superior performance characteristics, but it is an operationally untested aircraft, widely reported to run into constant escalating costs and with serious issues in relation to delivery timetables," Patalano said. "More importantly, there is no way to know at the moment if its ... superior stealth capabilities will make a difference in real-time missions: By the time it will enter into service, technology will have provided new ways to reduce the impact of this feature. Second, there is little guarantee as to whether once it is fully armed, this configuration will not have an impact on its stealth capabilities."

A senior Japanese industry source speaking on condition of anonymity also said industry doesn't yet fully buy into the F-35's value proposition.

"We have not yet got concrete information of how we will be involved," the executive said. "It is said that Japanese industry will assemble substantial portions of the F-35, according to the media, but we aren't sure exactly what systems and components Lockheed Martin will be allowed to permit industry to produce in the future.

"I am afraid that delays will happen that will increase costs next year or a few years later. Some feel that it is better that we avoid such a situation. Others want to us to pursue the newest fighter like some kind of super car," he said. "If Japan doesn't get the final version of the F-35 until a decade later, we may really need a different fighter. If there are delays, then the government may well have to put up with purchasing lower numbers."

Jun Okumura, a counselor for Eurasia Group, said the Japanese government will likely opt for the F-35 based on political reasons.

"The administration [of Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda] places great value on the bilateral alliance, particularly at a time when a rising China is making waves in Japan's near abroad and beyond - including hints of its own Gen-5 program - and the U.S. has decided to reupholster its engagement in the Asia-Pacific," he said. "All that the government sources are willing to say now is that nothing has been decided yet. Assuming that it is indeed the F-35, though, it means that MoD could have, but did not, go for an interim, Gen-4+ solution while waiting for the questions around the F-35, including timing, to clear up."

Fighter Jet Projects Surge, But Not Where You'd Expect

The number of countries attempting to develop a new fighter aircraft has surged recently, part of a cycle that has ebbed and flowed since the dawn of the jet age.

South Korea and Turkey are the latest nations to start clean-sheet programs, while Japan is working on its ATD-X concept demonstrator, India is working on an improved version of its Light Combat Aircraft and Indonesia has signed on to the Korean effort.

Most are drawn by the prospects of developing a homegrown industrial base, boosting employment and filling military needs, analysts said.

"If you want to do all three badly, then you build a national fighter," said Richard Aboulafia, an analyst at the Teal Group, Fairfax, Va. "It comes in waves, and a lot of it driven by national aspirations and a lot of it is driven by perception of threat, and a lot of it is driven by the ruling party in the given country."

In the 1980s, domestic politics fostered a spate of indigenous fighter projects, which were generally killed off in the next decade or two by economic realities, Aboulafia said. With free-market capitalism's cachet diminished in many parts of the world, such national programs have made a comeback.

"Even autarchy has come back into vogue," Aboulafia said. "I think this might be a reflected dislike of market reality that has come with the economic meltdown of the past three years."

There is also a perception that an indigenous effort will be cheaper than an imported design, said Byron Callan, an analyst at Capital Alpha Partners in Washington. Many countries cannot afford new fighters such as the F-35, Eurofighter Typhoon, Dassault Rafale or even the new Russian PAK-FA, Callan said.

Even the Swedish Gripen, which recently won a Swiss order largely because it was cheaper than the Rafale and Typhoon, is very expensive, he said.

Something has to fill the market void, Callan said.

But Aboulafia said these nations are grossly underestimating the cost of developing a new fighter. For example, Seoul estimates that its KF-X stealth fighter effort will cost about $8 billion - "which is enough to maybe design a decent set of wings," he said.

Dan Gouré, an analyst at the Lexington Institute, Arlington, Va., concurred.

"It's horribly expensive," he said.

The track record for national fighter programs is not a good one. Japan, which has a highly developed economy and advanced technology, tried and failed to develop good cost-effective fighter, even with U.S. help, Aboulafia said.

Japan's experience with the F-2, which was based on the F-16, was a disaster that largely soured the country on developing an indigenous fighter. Aboulafia noted Tokyo's ongoing ATD-X stealth fighter development effort but said it would likely produce only a concept demonstrator, not a full production effort.

"There is nothing about history that would make you want to do this," Aboulafia said. "And looking at history, they have a lot to answer for."

Nor do most countries attempting to build an indigenous fighter have the technical wherewithal to build such an aircraft. Neither Turkey nor South Korea has the technical ability to build such fighters without external help.

"They're going to find there is an enormous gap between the licensed production of F-16s and designing, integrating and producing an entirely new product," Aboulafia said.

Even South Korea's recent experience in co-developing the T-50 jet trainer does little to alleviate the problem, he said.

Gouré was blunt about their chances for success: "There is no way in hell."

Only a handful of nations can design and build fighters without external help, he said. France, Britain, the U.S. and Russia are the only countries ever to successfully develop their own fighters, he said.

"Even the Chinese stuff, it's really all derivative of Russian hardware," he said.

Only about 60 percent of the Saab Gripen is built in Sweden, with the rest, including the engines, mostly U.S. in origin, Gouré said.

Because indigenous programs almost invariably offer an inferior product, there is tension between those who would develop such aircraft and those who will be expected to fly them in combat.

"Are you simply expecting to do as good a job as a traditional producer, or are you simply expecting your air force to take casualties?" Aboulafia said. "The best-case scenario is the reinvention of a fourth-generation jet with higher cost, which is exactly what happened with Japan's F-2."

India's Light Combat Aircraft is a good example. Leery of adopting the homegrown fighter because of its less-than-impressive performance, the Air Force has shown a clear preference for the winner of the country's Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft - either Rafale or the Typhoon - and the Indo-Russian T-50 PAK-FA stealth fighter.

Callan said, ultimately, countries that need only interceptors for home defense don't need particularly advanced aircraft. A light fighter similar to an F-16 or F/A-18 might suffice.

"There is 'good enough' for a lot of these markets," he said.

USAF Board Blames Pilot, Not Oxygen System, in F-22 Crash

A U.S. Air Force Accident Investigation Board (AIB) report is blaming the Nov. 16, 2010, crash of an F-22 Raptor on Capt. Jeff "Bong" Haney - despite a malfunction of the jet's bleed air intakes, which caused an automatic shutdown of multiple aircraft systems including the primary oxygen system.

An aircraft's engine bleed air system extracts air from a jet engine's compressor section to generate power and supply gases for an aircraft's life support system, among other systems.

The AIB report confirms Defense News' Sept. 8 report, in which an industry source and a pilot both said that a bleed air malfunction had caused the crash by shutting down the oxygen system. The AIB, however, places the blame on Haney for not reacting quickly enough to activate the jet's emergency oxygen system or recover from a dive he inadvertently entered into as he struggled to regain his air supply.

"I find the cause of the mishap was the MP's [mishap pilot] failure to recognize and initiate a timely dive recovery due to channelized attention, breakdown of visual scan and unrecognized spatial disorientation," wrote Brig. Gen. James Browne, president of the AIB.

The F-22's On-board Oxygen Generating System (OBOGS), which supplies breathing air to the pilot and has been under investigation for most of the year, did not malfunction and wasn't a contributing factor, the report said. But the crucial device did shut down because of the bleed-air problem. In September, Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Norton Schwartz said oxygen had not played any role in the crash.

The report notes that "the MP most likely experienced a sense similar to suffocation," but also rules out hypoxia as contribution factor however despite the shut down of the oxygen system.

"Due to the high affinity of oxygen to hemoglobin, the MP would have had adequate blood oxygen supply after the OBOGS failed," the AIB report states. "It was concluded that the late recognition of the MA's [mishap aircraft's] unusual attitude and appropriate corrective actions attempted by the MP demonstrates that hypoxia was not a factor in this mishap."

A knowledgeable source agreed that Haney would not have fully succumbed to hypoxia, but would have been showing symptoms. Despite what the report says, the source said hypoxia would have played a role even if the pilot had not been rendered unconscious.

"The rate at which he descended, though, he would have been at a hypoxia-safe altitude within time to have not fully succumbed to hypoxia and should have only had symptoms versus unconsciousness," the source said.

The environmental control system (ECS), air cycle system, On-Board Inert Gas Generating System (OBIGGS), cabin pressure and OBOGS were all shut down when the aircraft's computer shut off the malfunctioning bleed-air system, according to the AIB report. The bleed-air system remains closed in the event of a malfunction to prevent fires.

The aircraft's memory unit showed "partial pressure to the MP's [mishap pilot] oxygen stopped shortly after 19:42:37 L, which would lead to severely restricted breathing," the accident report reads.

However, Haney did retain enough consciousness to attempt a recovery from a steep dive the aircraft entered into right before the crash. It was too late, however, as the Raptor impacted the ground a scant three seconds later.

However, Haney did not manage to active the Emergency Oxygen System (EOS) to supply him with air, which he needed to do in case the OBOGS shutdown. As the report notes "severely restricted breathing is a physiological symptom which would have prompted the [mishap pilot] to active the EOS."

Pilots have said that the emergency oxygen supply is notoriously difficult to use in the Raptor.

The AIB report states that as Haney struggled for air, "he channelized his attention on restoring airflow to his oxygen mask."

As Haney fought to restore his oxygen supply, he inadvertently began to roll the aircraft and his "visual scan" of the aircraft's instruments and external situation broke down. He entered into a state of "unrecognized spatial disorientation," according to the AIB report. The aircraft rolled 240 degrees and dropped to a 53 degree nose down attitude. Had Haney not been distracted by trying to breathe, he would have recognized the problem, the report reads. Haney didn't make any intentional control inputs for some 39 seconds.

"The fact that the [mishap pilot] went from a controlled flight regime to an unusual attitude and did not take corrective actions for 30 seconds suggests he had unrecognized spatial disorientation," the AIB report reads. "At 19:42:24L the [mishap pilot] recognized the [mishap aircraft's] position and attempted to perform a dive recovery."

Ultimately, the Air Force chose to blame Haney rather than attribute the crash to a malfunctioning bleed-air system and a difficult to use emergency oxygen supply.

Final F-22 Raptor Rolls Off Production Line

The last F-22 Raptor to be built for the U.S. Air Force, tail number 4195, rolled off Lockheed Martin's Marietta, Ga., production line on Dec. 13, bringing to a close the procurement of the stealthy, fifth-generation air superiority fighter jet.

The final Raptor will enter a series of company and government flight tests, said Jeff Babione, Lockheed's F-22 program manager. It also will receive its final coatings - an integral part of the twin-engine jet's stealth capability.

Tail 4195 will then be delivered in May to the 3rd Wing's 525th Fighter Squadron commanded by Lt. Col. Paul "Max" Moga at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, Alaska. It will become that squadron's "flagship," replacing an earlier loss.

The new jet is the 187th production aircraft to roll off the line; eight developmental Raptors were also built, Babione said. Counting the eight test planes, 4195 is the 195th F-22 to be built, he said.

Once two production aircraft losses are factored in, the Air Force will have 185 operational jets.

"It's sad to see the end of the Raptor, but given the costs of Iraq and Afghanistan, and the state of the economy, it stood little chance," said analyst Richard Aboulafia at the Teal Group, Fairfax, Va.

Babione, who has been with the Raptor program since 1988, said that manufacturing the aircraft has changed drastically since the first test aircraft, 4001, was produced. When that first plane was built, it had the feel of a custom-built, one-off prototype compared with the newest jet that just rolled off the production line, he said.

The workmanship, skills and procedures have come a long way, Babione said. There was a 78 percent learning curve improvement over the years, he said.

Today, "when you see the airplane on the line, it appears to be this very impressive, fine piece of workmanship," Babione said. "You just get this stark contrast from when we started to build them and now."

Lockheed and the Air Force are storing the production-line tooling and preserving the manufacturing know-how, Babione said. While the other F-22 manufacturing sites have been packed up and stored, the Marietta factory has yet to begin crating up the assembly line. That process will start next year, he said.

Aboulafia said there is still hope the Raptor line could be restarted.

"Given the potential of the aircraft, the line preservation efforts, and an uncertain strategic picture, it could one day follow the C-5 or B-1 and be reborn in a few years," he said.

For Lockheed, the shutdown of the production line is simply the beginning of a new chapter of sustaining and upgrading the Raptor.

"This is not the end, rather beginning of a new phase of this great program," Babione said.

A host of upgrades will be coming over the years. The Air Force is already working on adding new capabilities, and part of its Increment 3.1 and 3.2 upgrades will add synthetic aperture radar and the 250-pound Small Diameter Bomb (SDB) capability to the jet. It also will receive the AIM-9X and AIM-120D air-to-air missiles and other capabilities.

Increment 3.1 is a hardware and software upgrade that is focused on air-to-ground missions. This upgrade includes adding the ability to carry eight SDBs, new air-to-ground radar modes, and electronic attack capability. Increment 3.1 is currently being fielded to the operational fleet and will continue to be fielded until all operational Block 30/35 F-22 aircraft are modified by the end of 2016, Air Combat Command spokesman Scott Knuteson wrote in an emailed statement.

"This increment is designed to defeat air or surface threats in any threat environment; operational test and evaluation is nearly complete," Knuteson wrote. "So far, precision geolocation accuracy exceeds the requirement by 15%, synthetic aperture radar (SAR) map accuracy exceeds specifications by 55%, and SDB enables a 200% increase in air-to-ground weapons reach."

Next comes Increment 3.2A, which is a software-only upgrade that includes Link 16 receive capability upgrades, combat identification, and electronic protection. "The plan at this point is to field it between 2014 and 2016 --some jets will transition straight from Increment 2.0 to 3.2A," Knuteson wrote.

Increment 3.2B will include upgraded weapons, such as the AIM-120D, AIM-9X, and enhanced precision targeting, Knuteson wrote. "This is expected to be fielded in 2017-2020."

Lockheed is working closely with the Air Force on upgrading the plane, Babione said.

Operational since 2005, the Raptor was originally envisioned as a counter to hordes of Soviet fighters during a hypothetical conflict over Europe. With this in mind, the jet was designed to be faster and more maneuverable than anything else in the sky.

With its two Pratt & Whiney F119 engines, which produce about 38,000 pounds of thrust each, the Raptor has the ability to cruise at speeds of about Mach 1.8 without afterburners. With its afterburners on, the jet can reach a maximum speed of about Mach 2.2 and fly at 60,000 feet, an altitude limited only by Air Force regulations.

The sheer kinematic performance of the F-22 is unlikely to be equaled any time soon; next-generation aircraft are more likely to focus on weapons.

"The focus in the future will be on improving our weapons and their ability to attack different kinds of targets at extended ranges and intercept even more energetic targets," Babione said.

Iranian Cyber Commandos downed the American stealth Drone

A secret U.S. surveillance drone that went missing last week in western Afghanistan appears to have crashed in Iran, in what may be the first case of such an aircraft ending up in the hands of an adversary.

Iran’s news agencies asserted that the nation’s defense forces brought down the drone, which the Iranian reports said was an RQ-170 stealth aircraft. It is designed to penetrate enemy air defenses that could see and possibly shoot down less-sophisticated Predator and Reaper drones.

A stealthy RQ-170 drone played a critical role in surveilling the compound in Pakistan where Osama bin Laden was hiding in the months before the raid in which he was killed by U.S. Navy SEALs in May.

U.S. officials acknowledged Sunday that a drone had been lost near the Iranian border.
 This is the second time in history a stealth tech/plane has been brought down (f-117 being the first). Possible first time ever one has been hacked into in the air, and the fact that it's still in pretty good shape makes it priceless as it now can be disected and reverse/engineered

The chinese and russians are probably dying to take a look at this intact american Toy...

Billions of dollars worth of state-of-the-art stealth/drone/aircraft technology is now under the microscope being examined/reverse engineered.

Iran Did Not Down Drone: U.S. House Intel Chair

Iran did not down the U.S. spy drone captured by Iranian armed forces earlier this month, U.S. House Intelligence Committee chairman Rep. Mike Rogers said Dec. 13.

"I am satisfied in this particular case that no outside force brought this drone down," said Rogers, R-Mich., speaking at a conference sponsored by the Foreign Policy Initiative. "I will say without hesitation that this came down due to a technical problem."

On Dec. 12, President Barack Obama made public the U.S. request for Iran to return the drone.
"We've asked for it back. We'll see how the Iranians respond," Obama said during a news conference with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.
According to news reports, Brig. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi, Iran's defense minister, said Dec. 13 that the aircraft is Iran's property.
While Rogers said he is confident Iran did not down the drone, the United States should still be worried about its potential to do so via cyber attack in the future.
"Anytime that folks with ill intentions toward the United States come into possession of our technology is a bad day for the United States," he said.
However, while Iran tries to reverse-engineer the technology, the United States will be busy engineering new designs, he said.

Top Senators Express Dismay Over Latest F-35 Deal

The 2012 U.S. defense authorization bill includes tighter cost controls for the next F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) purchase, but the legislation comes too late to influence a contract the Defense Department awarded days earlier.

SENS. CARL LEVIN, left, and John McCain both were unhappy with the Pentagon’s latest F-35 purchase from Lockheed Martin. (File photo / Getty Images)

The Pentagon announced Dec. 9 thatit had awarded Lockheed Martin a $4 billion contract to build the fifth low-rate production lot of 30 F-35s for the Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps.

That happened as lawmakers from the House and Senate were negotiating the final language for the 2012 defense authorization bill, including a Senate amendment that would have prohibited the use of a cost-plus contract for lot 5.

Those negotiations concluded Dec. 12 and the legislation could be voted on in the House as early as Dec. 14, according to House Armed Services Committee Chairman Rep. Buck McKeon, R-Calif.

The authorization bill no longer contains language on the Lot 5 buy, but it now calls for a "no cost-plus contract" on Lot 6, according to Sen. Carl Levin, D-Mich., chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee.

"They've escaped what we think is a very necessary control on cost," Levin said at a Dec. 9 news conference with McKeon; Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., the ranking Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee; and Rep. Adam Smith, D-Wash., the ranking Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee.

Levin expressed his displeasure with the Pentagon for moving ahead with the buy while Congress was still in negotiations.

"Frankly … we took umbrage at the idea that the Air Force, the acquisition folks, would sign a contract for Lot 5 in the face of a Senate provision saying, 'We want no cost-plus contract on Lot 5,' " he said.

Because the Senate provision has not become law, the Pentagon could do it. "But frankly," Levin said, "I'll be calling in these acquisition folks, and I know Senator McCain will be right there at my side."

While the contract used for Lot 5 is not being called a cost-plus contract, it contains too many caveats and loopholes that allow cost increases to be picked up by the government, McCain said.

According to the Pentagon announcement, the contract is a "fixed-price-incentive [firm target]" contract, also known as a FPIF.

"All efforts will be contracted for on a FPIF basis, with the exception of work scope for the incorporation of certain specified concurrency changes that will be contracted for on a cost-sharing/no-fee basis," the DoD announcement reads.

Said McCain: "One would assume that a fixed-cost contract wouldn't allow any additional costs. That's not true anymore. It's become insane."

According to the lawmakers, the bill contains more than 600 different provisions.

The lawmakers presented a united front on the language concerning the treatment of terrorist suspects, urging President Obama not to veto the bill. Obama has threatened to veto the bill over changes on how to handle suspected terrorists.

Levin said the lawmakers added "significant provisions" to provide added reassurance that there would be no interference in civilian interrogations. Smith said Obama "ought to support it and ought to pass it."

U.S. to Iran: Give Our UAV Back

The U.S. government is asking Iran to return the Lockheed Martin-built RQ-170 Sentinel UAV that was recently downed over that country.

"We've asked for it back. We'll see how the Iranians respond," President Obama said Dec. 12 during a news conference with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.

"I hope he said please," said analyst Dan Goure of the Lexington Institute in Arlington, Va., referring to Obama's statement. "I can't quite see that happening."Obama's statement is the first official confirmation that the stealthy high-altitude spy plane had been captured by Iran. Earlier, the Pentagon had only officially acknowledged that an unmanned aircraft of an unspecified type was missing over western Afghanistan.

Iranian officials have already stated that they will not return the captured aircraft and have promised to reverse-engineer the jet's technology.

Richard Aboulafia, vice president of analysis at Teal Group, mirrored those comments.

"Good luck with that," he said. "I think I read this really bad plot line in a cheap novel a few years ago. Life imitating art, or something like that."

Goure said that there is no chance that Iran will return the Sentinel to the U.S. Nor does Obama have any legal grounds to ask for such a return.

"I'm a little puzzled as to why he even bothered," he said.

Goure said the U.S. had a right to complain when the USS Pueblo was captured by North Korea in 1968 or when a Chinese fighter collided with a U.S. Navy EP-3 Aries spy plane in international airspace in 2001. But the more recent episode is different.

"Nobody has argued that it didn't go down inside their airspace," he said.

Retired U.S. Air Force Lt. Gen. Jack Rives, a former judge advocate general, said that the U.S. was within its rights to ask for the return of the RQ-170 if the aircraft accidentally strayed into Iranian territory.

"We're not at war with the Iranians," Rives said. "When we're in our current conditions with them, this was an accident, it was a malfunction, the plane went down, it was our plane, there is no question over that. So it's just a common sense request under international law."

He said Iran has an obligation to return the aircraft, assuming it was operating in either international airspace or western Afghanistan with the consent of that nation's leadership.

"They actually don't have a right to keep it, it's ours," he said. "It did land on their land, and if it caused damage we'd reimburse them for the cost of the damage, but in terms of who owns the aircraft, there is no question it's ours."

However, the case becomes less clear if the Sentinel was intentionally overflying Iranian airspace, Rives said.

After Iranian state television broadcast footage Dec. 8 of the stricken aircraft, one source had confirmed that the images showed a RQ-170. The aircraft looked like it had suffered damage consistent with a wheels-up landing, he said.

Another source familiar with remotely piloted aircraft operations said that the RQ-170 is programmed to hold an orbit if it loses its command link and try to re-establish contact. However, if it begins to run out of fuel, it will divert to a nearby airfield if it can't return to base.

This may be what caused the aircraft to land inside Iran, the source said. The Northrop Grumman RQ-4 Global Hawk has a similar feature, which has proven a bone of contention between the U.S. Air Force and the Federal Aviation Administration.

However, that explanation can't account for the Sentinel's loss, Goure said.

"Even if they had lost control of it, it should have had enough fuel to go home," he said. "So that still doesn't explain what went wrong."

Goure said that it's still most likely that the aircraft suffered a catastrophic malfunction, enough so that it couldn't communicate or return home. The only other possibility is that it could have come under attack via cyber or electronic means.

While a cyber attack is some possibility, the system failure could have been caused externally by electronic attacks, Goure said.

"That's still a possibility," he said. "It's possible the Iranians did something."

Lockheed: Pentagon Order for F-35s Undefinitized

Lockheed Martin has signed an undefinitized contract that establishes a price ceiling for the fifth low rate production lot for the F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter, company officials clarified late on Dec. 10.

THE PENTAGON AWARDED Lockheed Martin an undefinitized contract to produce 30 more F-35 Joint Strike Fighters for the U.S. Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps. (Lockheed Martin)

The Pentagon announced earlier on Dec. 10 that it had awarded Lockheed Martin a $4 billion contract to build 30 F-35 Joint Strike Fighter aircraft for the U.S. Air Force, Navy, and Marine Corps.

"Lockheed Martin has signed an undefinitized contract that establishes the funding for Lot 5 up to the level announced by the DoD today," said Lockheed Martin spokeswoman Laurie Quincy in an email. "The final Lot 5 contract amount will not be known until we have a definitized contract sometime in 2012."

She said in a statement that the award is welcome news for the company and its F-35 suppliers.

"This … will help ensure we continue to meet production schedules outlined by the program," Quincy wrote. "This is an important first step in paving the way for full LRIP 5 production contract negotiations with our government customer."

The fixed-price-incentive contract calls for 21 F-35A conventional take off and landing (CTOL) for the Air Force, three F-35B short-take off and vertical landing (STOVL) aircraft for the Marines, and six F-35C carrier variants for the Navy.

Broken down by service, two-thirds of the value of the contract - $2.65 billion - is for the Air Force; $937 million, or 23 percent, for the Navy; and $426 million, or nearly 11 percent, for the Marine Corps.

The contract also provides for "associated ancillary mission equipment and flight test instrumentation" for the planes, and flight test instrumentation for the United Kingdom.

The contract was awarded through the Naval Air Systems Command.