Tuesday, January 18, 2011
Turkey-Pakistan Ties: India's Loss is China's Gain
In pursuit of Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu's concept of strategic depth, Turkey has been reaching out to rising powers in Asia while at the same time offering itself as a mediator in disputes in its near abroad. As part of this approach, Turkey is leveraging its longstanding ties with Pakistan and its stature as one of the few industrialized countries in the Muslim world to create a diplomatic role for itself in Afghanistan. But in a sign that Ankara's geopolitical outreach cannot transcend regional fault lines, Turkey kept India out of the January 2010 tripartite summit on Afghanistan at Pakistan's behest. In the face of India's diplomatic protest, Turkey subsequently sought to downplay the move, but it may nevertheless be indicative of a larger realignment in the region, with the Pakistan-Turkey relationship serving as an incubator.
Turkey was one of Pakistan's most-consistent allies throughout the Cold War, both ideologically and militarily. Military-to-military contacts remain as strong as ever, with the two countries now seriously exploring the coproduction of weapons ranging from armored vehicles to new-generation corvettes. Importantly, both sides also wish to boost defense exports to Islamic countries as an alternative to "expensive" Western weapons. However, given that Gulf Cooperation Council countries have recently placed substantial orders for American weapons, more likely candidates would be Egypt and Iran -- with the latter increasingly wooed by Ankara even at the cost of Turkey's long-standing ties with Israel.
A strong defense relationship with Pakistan gives Ankara the confidence to continue its troop presence in Afghanistan. While Turkey likes to describe its military contingent in Afghanistan as the only foreign force acceptable to the Afghan populace, it nevertheless understands that the well-being of its securitypresence may hinge on Pakistani support, given the latter's influence with the Taliban.
Pakistan is also attractively positioned as a facilitator for greater Sino-Turkish cooperation. Turkey's rising profile in Afghanistan comes at a time when China is beginning to seriously enter Afghanistan's resource-mining sector. China is also likely to seek Turkish help in dealing with the insurgency in Xinjiang on the basis of ethnic ties between Turks and Uighurs. China has added Turkey to the list of regional countries with which it is engaged in strategic missile cooperation -- the other chief recipients being Pakistan and Iran. In a move that shows that Turkey may be adopting an unconventional deterrence posture, the Turkish army obtained the technology for the short-range J-600T Yildrim ballistic missile from China. Moreover, the Chinese air force was a surprise participant in last year's annual Anatolian Eagle air exercise, in lieu of the Israelis or the Americans. This could well be a prelude to closer aerospace cooperation among China, Turkey and Pakistan, especially given China's development of various fourth- and fifth-generation fighter aircraft.
Pakistan may serve as a bridge between Turkey and China in a more-literal manner. In 2009, the 4,000-mile Islamabad-Tehran-Istanbul freight line opened for service, and 11 train loads of aid for Pakistan's flood-affected areas have already made their way from Turkey, with more to follow. During Turkish President Abdullah Gul's visit to Islamabad last December, the two sides agreed to work on a $20-billion plan to upgrade this rail link into a high-speed freight corridor. It is not inconceivable that China will at some point link up with this project by building a rail line through the Karakoram Pass connecting Kashgar in Xinjiang to Islamabad.
Turkey has also been involved in Pakistani rebuilding efforts following the 2005 Kashmir earthquake. As for the Kashmir dispute itself, Turkey has in the last decade tempered its firm support of the Pakistani position to adopt a more-balanced approach that frames the conflict as a bilateral dispute to be solved via dialogue, rather than on the basis of 60-year-old U.N. resolutions. But given the conservative lurch in Turkish society and the ruling AKP party's political orientation, Ankara is likely to increasingly take into account Islamic sensibilities in its approach to Kashmir, similar to its shift on the Israel-Palestine conflict.
That, coupled with the fact that India has now been kept out of a fifth successive round of the trilateral dialogue that took place in late-December, makes it unlikely that Turkey's plan to present itself as amediator in Afghanistan will inspire confidence in New Delhi. For its part, Turkey has sought to delink its concessions to Pakistan from its engagement with India, which it instead wants focused on trade and energy. Turkey is currently pushing for a free-trade agreement with India and has previously invited India to join the Baku-Ceyhan-Tbilisi pipeline.
But as with all of the other transnational gas pipelines to India's west that it has been invited to join, transit through Pakistan remains problematic. By contrast, the Chinese are in a better position to benefit as potential partners in regional energy infrastructure projects, given their all-weather friendship with Pakistan and the latter's control over the Gilgit-Baltistan region of Northern Kashmir bordering Xinjiang.
This possibility that Turkey might serve as the final node in China's ambition to gain overland access to the Mediterranean and the Middle East via Eurasian corridors should be far more worrisome to India than being kept out of the tripartite dialogue on Afghanistan. The very same constituencies that propelled the AKP to power in Turkey are also those that drive Turkey's turn to the east, and linking up with China seems like the biggest economic prize on offer. Better relations with Iran may also be understood in this context.
Running through all of these shifts is Pakistan's ability to exploit its geostrategic location to frustrate India's own ambitions to build bridges to Central and West Asia, while simultaneously proving an alluring partner for a Turkey looking to emerge as a genuine global middle power.
Turkey was one of Pakistan's most-consistent allies throughout the Cold War, both ideologically and militarily. Military-to-military contacts remain as strong as ever, with the two countries now seriously exploring the coproduction of weapons ranging from armored vehicles to new-generation corvettes. Importantly, both sides also wish to boost defense exports to Islamic countries as an alternative to "expensive" Western weapons. However, given that Gulf Cooperation Council countries have recently placed substantial orders for American weapons, more likely candidates would be Egypt and Iran -- with the latter increasingly wooed by Ankara even at the cost of Turkey's long-standing ties with Israel.
A strong defense relationship with Pakistan gives Ankara the confidence to continue its troop presence in Afghanistan. While Turkey likes to describe its military contingent in Afghanistan as the only foreign force acceptable to the Afghan populace, it nevertheless understands that the well-being of its securitypresence may hinge on Pakistani support, given the latter's influence with the Taliban.
Pakistan is also attractively positioned as a facilitator for greater Sino-Turkish cooperation. Turkey's rising profile in Afghanistan comes at a time when China is beginning to seriously enter Afghanistan's resource-mining sector. China is also likely to seek Turkish help in dealing with the insurgency in Xinjiang on the basis of ethnic ties between Turks and Uighurs. China has added Turkey to the list of regional countries with which it is engaged in strategic missile cooperation -- the other chief recipients being Pakistan and Iran. In a move that shows that Turkey may be adopting an unconventional deterrence posture, the Turkish army obtained the technology for the short-range J-600T Yildrim ballistic missile from China. Moreover, the Chinese air force was a surprise participant in last year's annual Anatolian Eagle air exercise, in lieu of the Israelis or the Americans. This could well be a prelude to closer aerospace cooperation among China, Turkey and Pakistan, especially given China's development of various fourth- and fifth-generation fighter aircraft.
Pakistan may serve as a bridge between Turkey and China in a more-literal manner. In 2009, the 4,000-mile Islamabad-Tehran-Istanbul freight line opened for service, and 11 train loads of aid for Pakistan's flood-affected areas have already made their way from Turkey, with more to follow. During Turkish President Abdullah Gul's visit to Islamabad last December, the two sides agreed to work on a $20-billion plan to upgrade this rail link into a high-speed freight corridor. It is not inconceivable that China will at some point link up with this project by building a rail line through the Karakoram Pass connecting Kashgar in Xinjiang to Islamabad.
Turkey has also been involved in Pakistani rebuilding efforts following the 2005 Kashmir earthquake. As for the Kashmir dispute itself, Turkey has in the last decade tempered its firm support of the Pakistani position to adopt a more-balanced approach that frames the conflict as a bilateral dispute to be solved via dialogue, rather than on the basis of 60-year-old U.N. resolutions. But given the conservative lurch in Turkish society and the ruling AKP party's political orientation, Ankara is likely to increasingly take into account Islamic sensibilities in its approach to Kashmir, similar to its shift on the Israel-Palestine conflict.
That, coupled with the fact that India has now been kept out of a fifth successive round of the trilateral dialogue that took place in late-December, makes it unlikely that Turkey's plan to present itself as amediator in Afghanistan will inspire confidence in New Delhi. For its part, Turkey has sought to delink its concessions to Pakistan from its engagement with India, which it instead wants focused on trade and energy. Turkey is currently pushing for a free-trade agreement with India and has previously invited India to join the Baku-Ceyhan-Tbilisi pipeline.
But as with all of the other transnational gas pipelines to India's west that it has been invited to join, transit through Pakistan remains problematic. By contrast, the Chinese are in a better position to benefit as potential partners in regional energy infrastructure projects, given their all-weather friendship with Pakistan and the latter's control over the Gilgit-Baltistan region of Northern Kashmir bordering Xinjiang.
This possibility that Turkey might serve as the final node in China's ambition to gain overland access to the Mediterranean and the Middle East via Eurasian corridors should be far more worrisome to India than being kept out of the tripartite dialogue on Afghanistan. The very same constituencies that propelled the AKP to power in Turkey are also those that drive Turkey's turn to the east, and linking up with China seems like the biggest economic prize on offer. Better relations with Iran may also be understood in this context.
Running through all of these shifts is Pakistan's ability to exploit its geostrategic location to frustrate India's own ambitions to build bridges to Central and West Asia, while simultaneously proving an alluring partner for a Turkey looking to emerge as a genuine global middle power.
U.S. denies Turkey’s request for combat UAVs
The United States has banned a range of advanced weapons for export to Turkey.
Officials said the administration of President Barack Obama has rejected a Turkish request for combat unmanned aerial vehicles as well as advanced munitions. They said the administration’s decision came after consultations with Congress late last year.
“There has been deep suspicion of Turkey in the United States, especially by Congress,” an official said.
So far, the Senate has blocked a Turkish request for the MQ-9 Reaper combat UAV by General Atomics. Ankara first relayed the Reaper request in late 2008, which encountered a cool reception from a Congress wary of Turkish relations with Iran, Middle East Newsline reported.
“There’s an effective arms embargo on some military products,” a Turkish diplomat said. “We don’t envision a significant change with the new Congress.”
Officials said the Turkish arms requests would mark a priority on Ankara’s agenda with Washington in 2011. They said the government of Prime Minister Recep Erdogan was heartened by Obama’s appointment of Francis Ricciardone to the post of ambassador in Ankara, which had been blocked by the previous Congress.
Officials said the administration of President Barack Obama has rejected a Turkish request for combat unmanned aerial vehicles as well as advanced munitions. They said the administration’s decision came after consultations with Congress late last year.
“There has been deep suspicion of Turkey in the United States, especially by Congress,” an official said.
So far, the Senate has blocked a Turkish request for the MQ-9 Reaper combat UAV by General Atomics. Ankara first relayed the Reaper request in late 2008, which encountered a cool reception from a Congress wary of Turkish relations with Iran, Middle East Newsline reported.
“There’s an effective arms embargo on some military products,” a Turkish diplomat said. “We don’t envision a significant change with the new Congress.”
Officials said the Turkish arms requests would mark a priority on Ankara’s agenda with Washington in 2011. They said the government of Prime Minister Recep Erdogan was heartened by Obama’s appointment of Francis Ricciardone to the post of ambassador in Ankara, which had been blocked by the previous Congress.
Sikorsky Sweetens Deal in Turk Chopper Contest
ANKARA - U.S. helicopter manufacturer Sikorsky Aircraft, in competition with an Italian rival for a Turkish program to jointly produce 109 utility helicopters worth about $4 billion, offered Ankara fresh benefits to strengthen its bid.
Steve Estill, vice president for strategic cooperation at the Sikorsky president's office, told Defense News his company would guarantee that Turkey would do repair and maintenance work worth $1 billion for the S-70i Black Hawk International helicopters belonging to third countries.
"Turkey will do maintenance, repair, overhaul work for the platforms of countries that have S-70i Black Hawk International helicopters. We guarantee this," Estill said. "Altogether, this will be worth $1 billion for Turkey's defense industry over the next 20 years."Sikorsky Aircraft is offering the T-70, a Turkish version of the S-70i Black Hawk International. The Black Hawk International is in the inventories of several countries. It is the export model of the U.S. UH-60 Black Hawk.
Sikorsky's rival, the Italian AgustaWestland, is proposing the TUHP 149, a Turkish version of its A149, a newly developed utility helicopter, in the Turkish competition.
India Unveils First Ever Defence Production Policy
With a view to achieve substantive self reliance in design, development and production of defense equipment, weapon systems and platforms, the Defence Minister Shri AK Antony unveiled the first ever Defense Production Policy (DPrP) here today.
The policy also aims at creating conditions conducive for the private industries to play an active role to achieve the objective. DPrP will act as a catalyst to enhance potential of Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) for indigenisation as also for broadening the defense research and development base of the country.
Releasing the document, Shri Antony said the Policy aims to achieve maximum synergy among theArmed Forces, DPSUs, OFBs, Indian Industry and Research and Development institutions. The function was attended among others by the Minister of State for Defence Shri MM Pallam Raju, Defence Secretary, Shri Pradeep Kumar, Secretary Defense Production, Shri Raj Kumar Singh and the DG Acquisition Shri Vivek Rae.
The Invisible Bird
Hours before American Secretary of Defense Robert Gates was to meet Chinese President Hu Jintao at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on Tuesday, 11 January, an aircraft took off from an airfield in the southwestern city of Chengdu. The flight lasted barely 15 minutes, but it was a clear message that the strategic balance of global air power was set to shift inalterably. The fifth-generation Chinese stealth fighter, the J-20, which took off on that day, was a signal that the end of American technological dominance of the skies may no longer be a question of decades but years.
Denis Roy, senior fellow at the East-West Center in Honolulu, notes, ‘The unveiling of the new Chinese stealth fighter, which the US press is characterising as a rival to the US F-22, reinforces two general US perceptions about the Chinese military. The first is the sense that the PLA (People’s Liberation Army) is modernising more quickly than expected and catching up with US capabilities. The second is anxiety about Chinese intentions, and the fear that Beijing plans to challenge the accustomed US role and US interests in the Asia-Pacific.’’
For weeks before the flight, pictures of the stealth fighter had been making their way to several Chin-ese websites. The very fact that they were not pulled out and the websites left free to operate was a signal that the world was meant to know of the existence of this fighter. The photographs were impressive, displaying the kind of technology that the world had suspected the Chinese were a decade away from developing. For this very reason, there was no shortage of sceptics, among them Robert Gates.
In July 2009, in a speech at Chicago, he had said, ‘‘Consider that by 2020, the United States is projected to have nearly 2,500 manned combat aircraft of all kinds. Of those, nearly 1,100 will be the most advanced fifth generation F-35s and F-22s. China, by contrast, is projected to have no fifth generation aircraft by 2020. And by 2025, the gap only widens.’’
Now, on his way to China, he admitted that US intelligence had underestimated the Chinese. He told reporters aboard his plane, which arrived in Beijing on Sunday, “I think what we’ve seen is that they may be somewhat further ahead in the development of that aircraft than our intelligence had earlier predicted.” But even then he said he remained unsure of how ‘stealthy’ the plane was.
The flight that took off from Chengdu was the Chinese answer. This time the news did not filter out through grainy photos on the Web. It was Kanwa Asian Defence magazine (an East Asian military journal) editor Andrei Chang, a long-time observer of the PLA, who confirmed this in a report from Hong Kong. He said the J-20 took off at 12:50 pm local time, and this was the report the Chinese state-run media picked up to confirm the flight.
Pakistan’s Nukes... What are "they" upto?
After civil nuclear deal between USA and India, disappearance of a nuclear scientist in his own country was important news. But silence of India and US over this matter is of greater importance. Astonishingly the dead body of Lok Nath was found after six days on the bank of River Kali, but America and India did not react over it. Indian govt. just got contented on a press release expressing possibility that Lok Nath might have been killed by terrorists or factions active for separation.
There are two suspicious aspects of the murder of Indian scientist; First, separatists are so much organized and powerful that they can easily kidnap and murder such an important personality (Possibly India has unintentionally admitted for first time the presence of separatists), Second important aspect is about media, that why on such an important matter Western and American media had been silent? Just only for that Lok Nath was allegedly involved in supply of enriched uranium through underworld? Moreover after civil nuclear deal with India this news could have created problems for USA. Then India itself is involved in murder of its scientist or America has assassinated him and advised India to keep silent. Then in such a situation what is crime of Pakistan, why western media has objection over Pakistan’s Nuclear Capability? Enemies of Pakistan are against Pakistani Nukes right from the start and after Pakistan has successfully acquired nuclear technology their conspiracies have increased. But shameful fact is that our own people are equally involved in these conspiracies, at least why?
After sending spy satellite to space with the support of Israel, India has also bought AWACS from Jews. In order to tackle lawlessness on western side Pak-Army is busy on Afghan Boundary and tribal areas. In such situation US says India is not Pakistan’s enemy. Suddenly India has started talking about withdrawal of troops from Held Kashmir. Through bans on freedom movement of Kashmiri people from UNO, India has already paralyzed it. The moral and legal right Kashmiri People for freedom is not accepted by world and especially USA. What else India needs? It will transfer 700,000 troops from Kashmir to Pakistani boundary. After this in Delhi or any other major city the staged drama of terrorism will be enough for Indian attack over Pakistan. In such situation while Pakistani economy is already pledged by IMF and World Bank, how longer Pak-Army will be able to fight on two sides? Under these conditions, Pakistani nukes can deter any adventurism from Hindu Brahmans.
Consider objections in the backdrop of these circumstances; is it not clear that after defeat in tribal areas enemies are trying to dispute Pakistani nukes? Criticism of Pakistani nukes on international level is not new, Pakistani intellectuals and analysts have started a new discussion while Pak-Army is facing so called Islamists supported and organized by few powers of world. They are objecting that Pakistan should not have conducted nuclear tests. A poor country like Pakistan does not need nuclear weapons. So called champions of free media, two private TV channels have even got such statements from their guest speakers, “This nuclear capability is cause of all the problems of the nation. If we had spent our wealth and energies for development in spite nuclear weapons, today Pakistan has been amongst the list of developed nations”.
This discussion apparently has been started in the scenario of celebrations in the commemoration of Nuclear Tests on 28th May. But famous scholar and teacher of science from Islamabad, Dr. Hood Bhai has already written an article against Pakistani Nuclear weapons in Indian digest, “Outlook”. This article has supported propaganda of enemies against Pakistani nuclear weapons. Chief of Indian Army General Deepak Kapoor has expressed concerns about Pakistani atomic weapons and appealed international community in this matter. American Senators has also said that Pakistan is using US Aide to increase number of atomic bombs and manufacture plutonium bombs. In presence of such propaganda which country will be ready to provide aid for rehabilitation of effected people of northern areas who have lost their homes and property during operations against terrorism. Painful fact is that during discussion opponents of Pakistani nuclear weapons provide a series of articles written by a famous journalist as evidence to support their claim against Pakistani Nukes, i.e. how he tried to convince and stop Nawaz Sharif from Nuclear Test. All Pakistani intellectuals while criticizing nukes should keep in mind that they are not criticizing nukes but Pakistan. Because the nukes are not guarantors of safety of Pakistan but it has become a part of Pakistan. They should read the book written by “Ravi Rakhe” about Brass Take War Games, the title of book is, “The War that Never Was”. This book makes it clear that what would have happened if Pakistan does not have nuclear weapons. Author treats Indian Prime Minister Rajeev Gandhi as a coward who believed the threat of nuclear war by General Zia-ul-Haq and lost golden chance to capture Pakistan. In contrast to this Indian newspaper “India Today” not only Rajeev Gandhi but his cabinet along with whole Indian Parliament as cowards. The representative of India Today has included the comments of Rajeev Gandhi’s special advisor “Behramnam” in his article. He quotes;
“General Zia-ul-Haq arrived in Delhi for cricket match as a spectator without any invitation. At that time Rajeev Gandhi was not ready to meet him at the airport. Indian troops were waiting for the PM’s orders on the Rajasthan sector to invade into Pakistani territory. In such situation it was improper to meet General Zia-ul-Haq. But opposition leaders and cabinet members were of the view that if arrived Pakistani leader has arrived in delhi without any invitation (from here he had to departure for Chennai for cricket match), it will against diplomatic values not to meet him and will cause misunderstanding about Indian leadership on the international level. On our demand Rajeev Gandhi got ready to go to Delhi airport, he coldly shaked hands with General Zia-ul-Haq without making any eye contact. Rajeev said to me, “General has to go to Chennai for cricket match, so accompany him and take care of him”. Bhagwan knows how strong was that man, in spite of insulting behavior of Gandhi, Zia kept smiling.
Before departure for Chennai General Zia-ul-Haq while saying good bye to Gandhi said, “Mr. Rajeev you want to attack Pakistan, do it. But keep in mind after this world will forget Hilaku Khan and Changez Khan and will remember only Zia-ul-Haq and Rajeev Gandhi. Because this will not be conventional war but nuclear war. Possibly whole Pakistan might be destroyed in this was but Muslims will be still there, however after destruction of India, Hinduism will be vanished”. In spite of cold drops of perspiration were visible on Gandhi’s forehead. I felt sensation in my backbone. These were only few moments when Zia-ul-Haq looked a dangerous man, his face was stern his eyes showed that he will do whatever he is saying no matter whole sub continent is burnt to ashes in nuclear war. I was astonished, after warning, in the blink of eye Zia-ul-Haq brought his smile; he warmly shook hands with other hosts. Except me and Rajeev Gandhi no one was aware that Zia-ul-Haq looking very happy and in light mood has created trouble for Indian PM by threatening him of nuclear war”.
It was nuclear capability which adhered India from attacking Pakistan. Representatives of India Today “Daleep Bob” and “Mandir Singh” write in their cover story, “Indian army was ready but Indian politicians cheated, such people are not worthy of being called Hindus and also not worthy of being leaders of India. They got afraid threats of a Pakistani General”. In their story of ten pages they have no where mentioned the cause behind India-Pakistan disputes/tension. They are not concerned with the Indian torture in Held Kashmir; they are just regretting that Indian, Indian politicians lost a golden chance to fulfill the dream of Greater India. According to some Indian intellectuals Indian army and RAW has collectively planned murder of Rajeev Gandhi so that he can be punished for being coward in front of Zia-ul-Haq and being the cause of defeat of army during Brass Take War Games. We had started from the murder of Indian nuclear scientist Lok Nath. International media is silent on it, but always worried about Pakistani Nuclear programs. Time by time their propaganda is going on. In the edition of first week of June 2009 weekly “Newsweek” writes, “Religious extremism might get access to spare uranium from Pakistani nuclear facilities. In the fight between Pak-Army and Taliban the question about future of nuclear weapons makes one shiver”. But Newsweek or other media cannot see the protest of family of Indian scientist. They have rejected official claim about his murder. They are of the view that dead body of Lok Nath has not been found on the bank of river Kali. But his mutilated corpse had been retrieved by divers of Indian Navy from the depth of river. Moreover on the morning of 8th June 2009 as per usual Lok Nath had gone for jogging, on track of India Navy situated on the bank of river Kali. Before disappearing last time he had been seen on that track. Then how did officials of navy was aware that his body is present in the depth of river? The questions and protest of Lok Nath’s widow is valid on its place, but why our free private media is silent on such an important incident? This was the time to tell the world that India is an irresponsible country possessing nuclear technology. While Indian scientists are involved in smuggling and selling of uranium and nuclear technology-
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