North Korea Completes Missile Launch Tower

SEOUL - Recent satellite images show that North Korea has completed a launch tower at its new missile base, a key step in efforts to test a missile which could eventually reach the United States, experts say.
An image taken on Jan. 10 of the Tongchang-ri base on the west coast shows a moveable launch pad and swing arms along with the tower.

It was disclosed by VOA News this week and was posted on the website of U.S. defense information group GlobalSecurity.org, prompting a senior U.S. military commander to describe the development as a "major concern."
The new base is seen as a key step in the North's quest for an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that could possibly strike the United States, GlobalSecurity.org said.
It is bigger and more advanced than the Musudan-ri base on the east coast, which the North used to launch long-range missiles in 1998, 2006 and 2009.
The North has enough nuclear material for an estimated six to eight weapons but it is unclear whether it has the technology to create a nuclear warhead for a missile.
U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates warned last month that North Korea could have missiles within five years that would directly threaten the United States.
"This is a major concern of ours," Adm. Robert Willard, head of the 300,000-troop U.S. Pacific Command, said of North Korea's missile program.
"When you package that together with the provocative actions that we saw in 2010, and the complexities of succession that are currently ongoing in North Korea, it should concern us all," Willard said at the Asia Society.
But Willard played down speculation of an imminent missile launch by North Korea. There are "no signs that I'm aware of that they're preparing for near-term missile tests," Willard said.
Work at Tongchang-ri has been monitored for more than two years and South Korean officials said in October 2009 that construction was near completion.
But the latest images were the first to show a launch tower.
Daniel Pinkston, a Seoul-based analyst with the International Crisis Group, said Tongchang-ri clearly had more facilities to support a missile development program than the relatively "primitive" Musudan-ri.
"It demonstrates their commitment to an ICBM program," he told AFP, "considering the cost of the program, the small size of their economy and their technical capabilities.
"If they are going to dedicate such resources, it's a sign they are serious about using the launch base," Pinkston said, adding that a test-launch is possible this year.
The North's first long-range test in 1998 sent a Taepodong-1 missile over Japan but failed to put a satellite in orbit. A Taepodong-2 exploded after 40 seconds after launch in 2006.
In April 2009, another Taepodong-2 travelled some 3,200 km (1,984 miles) to land in the Pacific.
That launch, and a nuclear test a month later, brought fresh UN sanctions including a ban on missile and nuclear-related activity.
Inter-Korean relations are icy after two deadly border incidents last year blamed on Pyongyang. Six-party nuclear disarmament talks have been stalled since December 2008 and Washington is resisting appeals for direct dialogue.
A long-range missile program could be used as a bargaining chip to extract U.S. concessions.
Pinkston said a successful launch would also have huge domestic propaganda value and boost the prestige of Kim Jong-Un, youngest son and heir apparent to leader Kim Jong-Il.
Any nuclear strike capability by the North could also be perceived as undermining the U.S. commitment to come to the aid of its regional allies South Korea and Japan, he added.

Israel Wary Of Iran Naval Power Play: Analysts

JERUSALEM - Israel is warily watching Iranian plans to station two warships in the Mediterranean, fearing the ploy is an attempt by Tehran to raise tensions between the arch foes, analysts said on Feb. 17.
The two ships, from Iran's 12th Flotilla, were expected to have crossed the Suez Canal into the Mediterranean in recent days, but were apparently held up after being denied permission to use the waterway.

Most concede that the Iranian vessels, a frigate and a support vessel, do not pose a direct threat to the Jewish state, but by brazenly sailing into Israel's home waters, they are staking Iran's claim to be a regional power.
In a worst-case scenario, analysts warned, the move could lead to the first-ever direct clash between Iranian and Israel forces, escalating a conflict that has, until now, been fought through Iran's proxies in Lebanon and Gaza.
On Feb. 16, Israel's hardline Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman called the move a "provocation" and said the Jewish state would not be able to ignore it for long.
Analysts said Iran appeared to be trying to boost its standing as a major force in the region.
"Iran is sending a political message, asserting its presence and power in the eastern Mediterranean, where it has allies in Syria, Lebanon and Hezbollah," said Ephraim Inbar, a professor of political science at Bar Ilan University.
The vessels are supposed to heading for a Syrian port, where they are due to be stationed for up to a year, Iranian officials said.
The Kharg is a 33,000-ton refueling and support vessel, and the Alvand is a 1,500-ton light patrol frigate, and both are British built, Iran's official Fars news agency said, quoting naval commanders.
The Kharg has a crew of 250 and can carry three helicopters, while the Alvand is armed with torpedoes and anti-ship missiles.
According to Fars, the 12th Flotilla is normally assigned to protect Iranian merchant vessels in the Gulf of Aden, an area plagued by Somali pirates.
"The Iranians are raising the stakes in the poker game against the West, and this time they are doing it vis-a-vis Israel in the Mediterranean theatre," wrote analyst Alex Fishman in the mass-selling Yediot Aharonot newspaper.
Fishman said their presence off the Israeli coast could lead to direct clashes, particularly if they tried to intervene in attempts by activists to breach Israel's naval blockade off the Gaza Strip, or tried to approach Israeli patrols off the Lebanese coast.
"From here on, scenarios could develop that are liable to cause a direct clash between Iran and Israel. This will no longer be with proxies on the Lebanese and Gaza borders, but directly with Iranian forces," he wrote.
Israel sees Tehran as its principal threat after repeated predictions by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of the Jewish state's demise. Israel also accuses Iran of arming and funding Lebanon's Hezbollah militia and Gaza's Hamas rulers.
Israel, which has the Middle East's sole if undeclared nuclear arsenal, suspects Iran of trying to develop atomic weapons under cover of a civilian nuclear program.
Tehran denies that charge and has accused Israel of trying to sabotage its civilian nuclear program and kill its nuclear scientists.
For now, the Iranian ships are still awaiting permission to transit the Suez Canal.
Egyptian and Iranian officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said the ships had requested permission to enter the canal, but had been denied for technical reasons connected to the chaos caused by the political unrest that brought down President Hosni Mubarak last week.
Under international law, Cairo cannot bar the Iranian vessels unless the two countries are officially at war, but Egypt, which has its own tense past with Iran, is also unlikely to want Iranian war ships patrolling in its sphere of influence.
If the ships were to pass through, it would be the first time Iranian naval vessels have done so since the 1979 Iranian revolution, which led to the severing of full diplomatic ties with Egypt.
Others sought to down play the military significance of the move, but said it was still a bold political statement from Tehran.
"The visit poses as no real threat either to Israel or to the moderate Arab regimes," wrote leading analyst Dan Margalit in the Israel Hayom newspaper, a pro-government free sheet.
Nevertheless, this "should not prompt one to underestimate the long-term strategic objectives of the Iranian regime, which seeks to turn Iran into a regional superpower," he wrote.