Russia Intensifies Air Strikes on Ukrainian Airfields Amid Arrival of F-16 Fighter Jets

 

As Ukraine prepares to receive its first F-16 fighter jets, there has been an increase in Russian air strikes targeting Ukrainian airfields. These strikes appear to be Moscow’s attempt to disrupt Kyiv’s infrastructure needed to operate the F-16s.

Reports on social media suggest that on June 22, the Russian Black Sea Fleet attacked Ukrainian infrastructure, including the Vasilkov airfield near Kyiv, using sea-launched Kalibr cruise missiles. A video on Platform X (formerly Twitter) showed at least four missiles in flight. Photos on social media later depicted the alleged destruction caused by the attack. Pro-Russian military bloggers made these claims, but the Ukrainian Armed Forces have not commented.

Military analysts suggest the strategy aims to weaken the Ukrainian Air Force by destroying potential F-16 bases. If accurate, this would be the second strike on Vasilkov this month. Earlier reports indicated an oil depot at the airfield was targeted, causing a fire visible from space.

Previously, Russia also launched missile strikes on Starokostyantyniv in the Khmelnytsky area, another potential F-16 base. Russia has threatened to strike any Ukrainian airfield housing the F-16s, most of which are within the range of Russian missiles. Ukraine has announced plans to station some F-16s on NATO territory to safeguard them from attacks.

Ukraine is set to receive F-16s from Denmark in the coming weeks, with additional pledges from the Netherlands, Norway, and Belgium. Some donor countries have suggested using the jets for strikes inside Russia, heightening Kremlin concerns.

While facing relentless Russian air strikes, Ukraine has been targeting Russian air defenses in preparation for the F-16s’ arrival. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted Ukraine’s efforts to degrade Russian air defenses to enable effective use of manned aircraft. Recent Ukrainian actions have targeted key Russian air defense systems, including modern systems like the S-400, which were hit by Ukrainian drones.

The S-300/S-400 air defense systems and Su-57 fighters are vital for Russia to restrict Ukrainian air operations and support its offensive. Kyiv has strategically targeted these platforms as both sides engage in intense aerial strikes.

On June 23, Russian authorities reported that Ukrainian drone and missile attacks on Crimea resulted in six deaths and over 100 injuries. Russia blamed both the United States and Ukraine, claiming the attack involved US-provided ATACMS missiles. Russian air defenses reportedly shot down 33 Ukrainian drones over Bryansk, Smolensk, Lipetsk, and Tula.

Additionally, reports suggest Ukraine attacked a Russian warehouse used for launching and training with Iranian-made drones. Satellite images confirmed the destruction of facilities in the Krasnodar Territory on June 21.

Russia has also increased the use of guided bombs on Ukrainian territory, with recent attacks in Kharkiv resulting in multiple fatalities. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has called on allies to strengthen Ukraine’s air defenses, emphasizing the need for modern systems like Patriots, accelerated pilot training for F-16s, and extended weapon range.

Over the weekend, Russia targeted Ukraine’s power infrastructure, marking the ninth attack on energy installations in three months, according to Ukraine’s energy ministry.

China Advances Toward Sixth-Generation Fighter Jet with Significant Progress

 Despite China's notorious secrecy surrounding its defense projects, there are signs of progress in developing a sixth-generation fighter jet. The clearest indication came from a January 2019 WeChat post by the Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC). In an interview, Wang Haifeng, the chief designer at Chengdu Aerospace Corp., an AVIC subsidiary, revealed plans for a combat aircraft designed to "protect the sea and sky" by 2035.

Wang mentioned features such as manned-unmanned teaming, artificial intelligence, enhanced stealth, and omnidirectional sensors. In 2022, U.S. Air Combat Command’s head affirmed these efforts are "on track," noting that China views sixth-gen technology similarly to the U.S., emphasizing stealth, processing power, and reprogrammable open-mission systems.

Rick Joe, a Chinese military expert, now considers these sixth-gen efforts a confirmed program. Since 2019, there have been more indicators, including AVIC artwork of next-gen fighter designs, academic papers, and statements from officials. In October 2021, satellite imagery showed a tailless fighter-like airframe at Chengdu Aerospace facilities.

Joe reported that demonstrator testbeds, possibly subscale versions, have already flown. Without an official name, he referred to the aircraft as the J-XD, noting it might initially have less capable subsystems compared to U.S. equivalents but is closing the technological gap.

Sixth-gen fighters are expected to feature advanced aerodynamic design, radiofrequency materials, flight control software, sensing technologies, data-linking and combat-management systems, weapons, and integration with collaborative drones. Joe believes China is competing on par with other nations pursuing similar capabilities.

However, Brendan Mulvaney, director of the U.S. Air Force’s China Aerospace Studies Institute, expressed a more cautious outlook. While he acknowledges China’s potential to develop advanced fighters in the future, he doubts they have the capability today. He highlighted China’s challenges with jet engine development but noted significant improvements.

Mulvaney suggested that China's future fighter might be optionally manned, allowing for autonomous operations or serving as a loyal wingman. While Chinese drone technology is ambitious, it remains unclear how it will complement a sixth-gen fighter. Joe noted that current Chinese combat drones displayed at air shows are likely not representative of those intended for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), which are probably more advanced.

The GJ-11 combat drone, unveiled in 2019, exemplifies China's progress in unmanned systems. Joe believes sophisticated combat drones are in advanced development or limited trial service. The J-20 fighter's twin-seat variant, designed for manned-unmanned teaming, could also contribute to these efforts.

If Wang's prediction of an operational sixth-gen fighter by 2035 is accurate, a maiden flight would need to occur by 2028, implying a prototype should be ready soon. While Joe is confident in this timeline, Mulvaney estimates China will reveal a meaningful design in the late 2030s or early 2040s.

Russian Spy Ships Allegedly Gathering Intel on Israel's Newest Submarine INS Drakon

 Following allegations of U.S. surveillance on China's Fujian aircraft carrier, there are now claims that Russia might be collecting critical intelligence on Israel’s latest submarine, INS Drakon. Naval analyst H.I. Sutton suggested that two Russian spy ships, the Sibiryakov and Wassili Tatischtschew, were likely monitoring Israel’s new submarine, which is currently undergoing sea trials in Kiel, Germany.

The submarine, constructed by ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS), has drawn significant attention. An analysis by Droxford Maritime indicated that Sibiryakov had been sent to observe the sea trials, while German media reported that Wassili Tatischtschew positioned itself off Kiel.

Russia has a history of deploying spy ships to gather intelligence on adversaries. For example, in April last year, Russia was accused of using a spy ship in Nordic waters to potentially sabotage underwater cables and wind farms. Since 2014, allegations have surfaced about Russian ships eavesdropping on North Sea facilities, with at least 50 vessels reportedly lingering near power facilities, oil and gas sites, and military training grounds during NATO exercises, according to public media investigations in Denmark, Finland, Sweden, and Norway.

Earlier this year, a Russian spy ship, the Kareliya, lingered near Japan’s coastline during a 10-day deployment. Spying during sea trials is common, as it allows navies to build an acoustic library of new submarines, monitor their performance, and gather data more easily than when the vessels are in active service.

INS Drakon, the latest and most advanced of Israel’s Dolphin II class attack submarines, features a large sail likely housing vertical launch tubes for strategic missiles. Once operational, it will be part of Israel’s nuclear deterrent, making it a prime target during its sea trials. Experts note that the marine pathways used are usually closed off to the public, making the alleged Russian surveillance more significant.

Droxford Maritime observed that while the Israeli submarine’s movements haven’t been reported, it was seen being fueled in early June, indicating ongoing trials. These claims echo similar accusations by China against the U.S. earlier this year. China alleged that a U.S. Air Force electronic intelligence aircraft was conducting surveillance on its newest aircraft carrier, the Fujian, during its sea trials in May 2024.

Flight-tracking data from Hans M. Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists showed the U.S. spy plane conducting surveillance missions along the Chinese coastline on May 7, 9, 10, and 13. The operations, originating from Okinawa’s Kadena Air Base, involved long-haul flights over strategically important regions, including the Luzon Strait, the Paracel Islands, and the Pearl River Delta. The U.S. Defense Department did not disclose the specifics of these operations, but they were seen as attempts to gather intelligence on the Chinese carrier amid rising tensions between China and the West.

Israeli Air Force Grounds F-16 Squadron After Targeting Errors in Gaza

 The Israeli Air Force (IAF) has temporarily grounded an F-16 squadron stationed at Ramon Air Base for three weeks due to two significant incidents of incorrect targeting in Gaza. These errors, which the IAF described as a “landmark error,” occurred twice within a span of two weeks, revealing critical flaws in target verification and operational procedures.

The first incident was caused by the incorrect entry of ground coordinates, leading to an unintended target being hit. Despite changes to procedures after this mistake, a similar error happened days later during an overnight mission targeting five locations in Gaza. A digit error in the target coordinates led to another incorrect strike.

An IAF spokesperson highlighted the failure to follow ground verification procedures, attributing the mistakes to “negligence in entering waypoints, non-compliance with additional control procedures by the crew, and a failure to adapt to the updated procedures after the initial error.”

Fortunately, there were no casualties or damage from these incidents. The grounding of the squadron aims to prevent future errors and reinforce strict adherence to targeting protocols. The IAF plans a thorough investigation to address the root causes and implement stronger preventive measures.

This incident follows another significant error by the IAF nearly a month earlier when a combat aircraft accidentally dropped a bomb intended for Gaza on Israeli territory. The unexploded bomb, found on May 17 in Yated village near the Gaza border, posed a serious risk to local residents.

The recent grounding of the squadron comes amid escalating tensions and ongoing conflict in the region, emphasizing the critical need for precise military operations to maintain international credibility and minimize unintended consequences.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that the “intense phase of the war with Hamas in Gaza is about to end,” but military operations would continue until Hamas is eliminated. He indicated that the conflict might soon shift focus to the northern border with Lebanon, where clashes with Hezbollah have intensified, underscoring the broader regional instability Israel faces.

ATACMS with Cluster Warheads Breaches Russia's S-500 Defense in Sevastopol Attack, Escalates US-Russia Tensions

 

Tensions between Russia and the United States have sharply increased following a significant missile strike on Sevastopol, Crimea, on June 23, resulting in four deaths, including two children, and about 150 injuries from missile debris falling on a nearby beach. Russian officials assert that the missiles were US-supplied ATACMS.

The Russian defense ministry stated that the ATACMS missiles, capable of hitting targets up to 300km away, were responsible for the attack. The incident has led to chaotic scenes in the Uchkuyevka area, with beachgoers fleeing and injured individuals being assisted.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov condemned the strike as “barbaric,” accusing the US of "killing Russian children" and supporting Kyiv in committing acts of international terrorism. He emphasized the US involvement, claiming that all ATACMS are programmed and guided by American specialists.

The Russian defense ministry reported intercepting five cluster warhead-loaded missiles launched by Ukrainian forces. Despite this, significant casualties and damage occurred due to falling debris. Additionally, an American UAV, the Global Hawk, was reportedly present over the Black Sea during the attack, further implicating US involvement.

ATACMS are ground-launched ballistic missiles that travel at speeds up to 2,300 mph, making them challenging to intercept. Upon launch, Russia’s radar systems activate, but the missile's speed leaves only about three minutes to respond, straining air defense units.

The US approved sending Ukraine its first batch of ATACMS with a 165 km range in October. In March, a long-range version capable of hitting targets up to 300 km away was sent. These missiles have significantly impacted Russian targets in Crimea since their first use in April.

In mid-May, a major ATACMS attack on a Russian base in Belbek, Crimea, destroyed an S-400 radar and two launchers. Analysts report substantial Russian losses, including command posts, radars, and launchers.

Russian military expert Vasily Dandykin acknowledged the effectiveness of ATACMS, emphasizing the need for improved air defenses and preemptive strikes on Ukrainian missile systems.

Meanwhile, the Kyiv Post reported that ATACMS breached Russia's S-500 air defense system for the first time, indicating a significant escalation in the conflict and highlighting the missile's capability to penetrate Russia’s most advanced defenses.