India Nears Finalization of Maintenance Deal for Russian S-400 Systems with Local Production Plans by 2028

 

According to a source within the Indian defense industry, an agreement between an Indian company and the Russian manufacturer of the S-400 air defense systems for local maintenance and repair is nearly complete. This has been reported by various media outlets, including EurAsian Times, Russia’s Sputnik, and India’s Times of India.

The key joint venture involves an Indian firm collaborating with Almaz-Antey, the Russian state-owned company that developed the S-400 surface-to-air missile (SAM) system. The primary aim of this partnership is to maintain and repair S-400 air defense systems in India, with plans to eventually produce essential components locally.

Negotiations between the Indian company and Almaz-Antey are almost concluded. The partners intend to establish two support centers and commence manufacturing spare parts in India by 2028.

Discussions about India’s role in manufacturing spare parts and maintaining the S-400 system began back in 2019. Reports from BulgarianMilitary.com indicated that Russia and India were negotiating the production of parts for the S-400 systems within India. Sergey Chemezov from Russia’s high-tech company, Rostec, confirmed these discussions. He also mentioned that Russia had previously sold licenses to India for the production of Su-30 fighter jets and T-90 tanks, and collaborated on the development and production of the BrahMos missile in India.

India sought to purchase the Russian-made S-400 missile systems as early as 2015, finalizing a $5.43 billion contract during Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to India. This move faced opposition from Washington, which threatened sanctions on countries buying military equipment from Russia. Despite U.S. pressure, India remains committed to acquiring the S-400 systems.

Indian sources report a delay in the delivery of the SA-21 Growler anti-aircraft missile systems from Russia. Originally scheduled for delivery by 2024, the final pair will now arrive between July and September 2026, likely due to the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. However, Russia has not officially commented on the delay.

In October last year, new information surfaced about India’s pending S-400 units, with photos shared on Russian Telegram accounts showing the transport of key S-400 components. These photos suggested that the final units for India were nearing completion, pending final assembly and quality tests before shipment.

In March 2024, BulgarianMilitary.com reported another delay in the delivery of the final pair of S-400 Triumf systems to India, disrupting India's defense plans which rely on the three existing S-400 units. The delay of the fourth and fifth units, now expected in 2026, is a significant issue for India.

This situation might offer an unexpected benefit for India's defense industry. India, which currently relies on imported parts for various platforms, could leverage the ongoing conflicts and production challenges to gain a major technology transfer from Russia. This would facilitate local assembly of parts and components, turning a challenging situation into a potential advantage through Transfer of Technology (ToT).

India’s Struggle to Modernize its Fighter Fleet: The Challenges and Choices Ahead

 India's plan to procure 114 Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA), a highly anticipated defense deal, remains uncertain. The Indian Air Force (IAF) currently operates 31 fighter squadrons, well below the authorized 42, and needs more to face its two major adversaries.

The IAF has ordered nearly 200 Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Mk1 and Mk1A variants and has committed to 200 LCA Mk2s. However, nine years after the first IAF LCA squadrons were formed, only about 40 LCA aircraft are in service. Even with increased production to 24 aircraft per year, it will take time to meet the required numbers. India's Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) is still over a decade away, and the aging MiG 21s are still in use. The Jaguars and Mirage 2000 fleets need to retire by around 2030. Despite the push for self-reliance, India will need to induct the 114 MRFA to bridge the gap.

The initial Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) process was limited to 36 Rafale jets due to technical reasons. The IAF has specified the operational requirements for these 114 aircraft.

A recent report by the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Defence highlighted delays in delivering the initial 40 LCAs to the IAF and suggested exploring the purchase of fifth-generation fighter aircraft.

MRFA Competition

India issued a Request for Information (RFI) in April 2018 for the 114 MRFA. Responses from contenders were received later in 2018. The Indian Navy was also asked to consider new fighter jets alongside this program. The Navy needs a twin-engine fighter, focusing on the Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet and Dassault Rafale-M, likely opting for 26 Rafale-Ms.

Eight aircraft are competing for the IAF’s MRFA: Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, Boeing F-15EX Eagle II, Dassault Rafale, Eurofighter Typhoon, Lockheed Martin F-21 (a variant of the F-16V customized for India), Mikoyan MiG-35, Saab JAS-39 Gripen E/F, and Sukhoi Su-35.

The next step involves the Defence Acquisition Council's (DAC) Acceptance of Necessity (AoN) and issuing a Request for Proposal (RFP). Even if the RFP is issued today, it could take over five years for the aircraft to be inducted. India's security establishment must make an early decision on the 114 aircraft import.

Big Ticket Assessment

Russia has proposed two aircraft: the MiG-35, which did not qualify in the earlier MMRCA selection, and the new Su-35. The Su-35, part of the Su-27/30 family, is not a viable option due to India's already significant fleet of similar aircraft and planned upgrades. The Russian industry is also preoccupied with domestic demands due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

If the Indian Navy selects the Rafale-M, the interest in the F/A-18 Super Hornet will decline. India has invested in the Rafale infrastructure and modifications, suggesting that acquiring more Rafale jets, potentially making 140 (114+26) in India, is logical.

The Saab JAS-39 Gripen E/F and Eurofighter Typhoon are strong contenders. The Gripen, with its GE 414 engine, and Eurofighter, with its extensive global presence, offer good options, although geopolitical factors and technology transfer levels will influence the decision.

US Influence in India's Aircraft Ecosystem

India has already integrated several US aircraft, including the Boeing P8I, Lockheed C-130J, and others. The upcoming purchase of General Atomics MQ-9B Predator Drones further solidifies US involvement. Evaluating the F-15EX and F-21 (an advanced F-16 variant) is essential.

The F-15EX, with its impressive payload and advanced features, is a heavy, costly option, adding complexity to India’s diverse fleet. The F-21, an advanced F-16, offers in-country production potential but faces public perception challenges due to Pakistan's use of F-16s.

Conclusion

India must make a one-time purchase of 114 aircraft, ideally the same type for the IAF and Navy, with significant technology transfer and in-country production. The US is eager to integrate into India’s fighter aircraft ecosystem, reflecting geopolitical closeness. Ideally, the US should offer the F-35, addressing technical barriers like the S-400 linkage.

Balancing India's aircraft mix to reduce dependence on Russian and Western suppliers while increasing indigenous production is crucial for long-term strategic autonomy.

Russia Intensifies Air Strikes on Ukrainian Airfields Amid Arrival of F-16 Fighter Jets

 

As Ukraine prepares to receive its first F-16 fighter jets, there has been an increase in Russian air strikes targeting Ukrainian airfields. These strikes appear to be Moscow’s attempt to disrupt Kyiv’s infrastructure needed to operate the F-16s.

Reports on social media suggest that on June 22, the Russian Black Sea Fleet attacked Ukrainian infrastructure, including the Vasilkov airfield near Kyiv, using sea-launched Kalibr cruise missiles. A video on Platform X (formerly Twitter) showed at least four missiles in flight. Photos on social media later depicted the alleged destruction caused by the attack. Pro-Russian military bloggers made these claims, but the Ukrainian Armed Forces have not commented.

Military analysts suggest the strategy aims to weaken the Ukrainian Air Force by destroying potential F-16 bases. If accurate, this would be the second strike on Vasilkov this month. Earlier reports indicated an oil depot at the airfield was targeted, causing a fire visible from space.

Previously, Russia also launched missile strikes on Starokostyantyniv in the Khmelnytsky area, another potential F-16 base. Russia has threatened to strike any Ukrainian airfield housing the F-16s, most of which are within the range of Russian missiles. Ukraine has announced plans to station some F-16s on NATO territory to safeguard them from attacks.

Ukraine is set to receive F-16s from Denmark in the coming weeks, with additional pledges from the Netherlands, Norway, and Belgium. Some donor countries have suggested using the jets for strikes inside Russia, heightening Kremlin concerns.

While facing relentless Russian air strikes, Ukraine has been targeting Russian air defenses in preparation for the F-16s’ arrival. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted Ukraine’s efforts to degrade Russian air defenses to enable effective use of manned aircraft. Recent Ukrainian actions have targeted key Russian air defense systems, including modern systems like the S-400, which were hit by Ukrainian drones.

The S-300/S-400 air defense systems and Su-57 fighters are vital for Russia to restrict Ukrainian air operations and support its offensive. Kyiv has strategically targeted these platforms as both sides engage in intense aerial strikes.

On June 23, Russian authorities reported that Ukrainian drone and missile attacks on Crimea resulted in six deaths and over 100 injuries. Russia blamed both the United States and Ukraine, claiming the attack involved US-provided ATACMS missiles. Russian air defenses reportedly shot down 33 Ukrainian drones over Bryansk, Smolensk, Lipetsk, and Tula.

Additionally, reports suggest Ukraine attacked a Russian warehouse used for launching and training with Iranian-made drones. Satellite images confirmed the destruction of facilities in the Krasnodar Territory on June 21.

Russia has also increased the use of guided bombs on Ukrainian territory, with recent attacks in Kharkiv resulting in multiple fatalities. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has called on allies to strengthen Ukraine’s air defenses, emphasizing the need for modern systems like Patriots, accelerated pilot training for F-16s, and extended weapon range.

Over the weekend, Russia targeted Ukraine’s power infrastructure, marking the ninth attack on energy installations in three months, according to Ukraine’s energy ministry.

Russia Deploys S-500 Prometheus in Crimea to Safeguard Key Assets

 Russia has reportedly deployed elements of its advanced S-500 air defense system to Crimea following successful Ukrainian strikes on the S-400 missile system. This move raises questions about whether Russia is exposing its still combat-untested system to potential Ukrainian attacks.

Currently, Russia operates only one active S-500 regiment, which consists of two battalions with two air-defense batteries each. The specifics of which elements have been moved are unclear, as such systems have multiple operational components, including command posts, radars, and launchers.

The S-500 may have been deployed to protect the critical Kerch Bridge in Crimea. This bridge, vital for connecting Crimea to mainland Russia, has been a frequent target of Ukrainian attacks. The S-500 is designed to replace the S-400 and the A-235 ABM systems, providing advanced defense against modern aerial threats, including stealth jets, hypersonic missiles, and satellites.

Ukraine continues to target Crimea, complicating Russia's efforts to maintain control. Attacks have focused on air defenses, bridges, rail links, and power supplies, including significant hits on the Kerch Bridge, impacting Russia’s ability to transport heavy military equipment.

The S-500 Prometheus is a significant leap in Russian air defense technology, boasting the ability to engage targets at ranges up to 600 kilometers. Its sophisticated radar system can track and target stealth aircraft, hypersonic missiles, and low-orbit satellites, providing a robust defensive capability.

The S-500 system includes four radar vehicles per battery and uses multiple frequencies to detect stealth aircraft. It can engage 10 targets simultaneously with a response time of three to four seconds, faster than the S-400. Its radar can detect ballistic and airborne threats at remarkable distances, with a range of up to 2,000 kilometers for ballistic targets and 800 kilometers for airborne threats.

This system can launch missiles that reach altitudes up to 200 kilometers, allowing it to intercept ballistic missiles and low-orbit satellites. Despite its capabilities, the S-500's deployment to Crimea, where it is vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes, remains a contentious decision.

Ukraine's strategy of degrading Russian air defenses continues, with significant impacts on S-300 and S-400 batteries already observed. The S-500’s deployment in Crimea marks its first known combat role, with Russia aiming to fully deploy these systems around Moscow by 2025.

Russia’s long-term plans include ringing Moscow with S-500 systems to bolster its defense against Western threats. India and China have shown interest in acquiring the S-500, with potential implications for regional security dynamics.

India, in particular, is monitoring the S-500's performance in Ukraine, considering its potential acquisition to bolster its defense against China. Effective deployment strategies, including dispersion and camouflage, will be crucial to protect such advanced systems from unconventional attacks.

Overall, the S-500 Prometheus represents a significant advancement in air defense technology, but its real-world effectiveness remains to be fully proven in the ongoing conflict dynamics.

India to Reconsider Russian Su-57 Stealth Fighter to Counter China's J-20

 The Indian Air Force (IAF), recognized as the fourth largest air force globally, is currently without a fifth-generation fighter jet. Despite previous involvement in the Sukhoi/HAL Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) project, which was based on Russia's Sukhoi Su-57, India withdrew from the program in 2018. However, the possibility of revisiting this decision remains open.

Globally, 19 countries operate fifth-generation fighters. China uses its Chengdu J-20 ‘Mighty Dragon,’ while Russia employs the Sukhoi Su-57 ‘Felon.’ Seventeen other nations have adopted the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II, with the U.S. exclusively operating the F-22 Raptor. Only the U.S., China, and Russia have developed original fifth-generation fighters, though many nations participate in F-35 development.

The FGFA project aimed to integrate 43 enhancements proposed by India into the Su-57, including advanced sensors and avionics. The Indian variant was planned to be a two-seater, featuring a pilot and a weapon systems operator (WSO). Since stepping away from FGFA, India has focused on developing its own fifth-generation fighter, the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA). However, the Su-57 remains an option, especially given the F-35's unavailability due to India's acquisition of the Russian S-400 air defense system.

The Sukhoi Su-57 is a twin-engine, stealth multirole fighter first developed in 1999 and introduced to the Russian military in 2020. Known for its air superiority and ability to engage surface and maritime targets, the Su-57 boasts stealth features, super-maneuverability, and a large payload capacity. Despite its advanced capabilities, the Su-57 has faced technological and financial hurdles, including issues with structural integrity during early tests.

The Su-57 features a blended wing body fuselage, extensive use of composites, and advanced stealth technologies aimed at reducing radar and infrared signatures. It is equipped with sophisticated avionics, including a modular avionics system and various radar systems for enhanced situational awareness. The aircraft can deploy various countermeasures and is being tested for advanced AI and unmanned teaming technologies.

Russia's production of the Su-57 has been slow, with plans for significant expansion. Initial operational use included deployments in Syria and Ukraine, demonstrating the aircraft's capabilities in combat situations. Future developments include an upgraded Su-57M variant, a potential carrier-based version, and integration with the Okhotnik UCAV for uncrewed operations.

In contrast, China’s Chengdu J-20 ‘Mighty Dragon’ has seen rapid production, with nearly 250 units built. Designed for air superiority and precision strikes, the J-20 features advanced stealth design, powerful radar systems, and high maneuverability. The J-20’s production and deployment have outpaced the Su-57, reflecting China's growing military capabilities.

India, once a partner in the FGFA project, remains cautious about fully committing to the Su-57. Given the challenges and delays in developing the AMCA, India might reconsider the Su-57 or explore other options like the Su-75 Checkmate. However, with China's expanding J-20 fleet and potential threats from neighboring countries, India must act swiftly to ensure its air force remains competitive.

The Su-57 and J-20 will likely compete for market share in regions like Africa, West Asia, and Southeast Asia. Despite their differences, both aircraft offer cost-competitive solutions for countries seeking advanced air combat capabilities. As the global landscape of fifth-generation fighters evolves, India’s decisions will significantly impact its strategic military position.

Ukraine Strikes Russian Su-34s: Drone Attack on Morozovsk Airfield 250km Behind Frontlines

 

On June 14, satellite images confirmed a successful drone strike by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on Morozovsk Airfield in Russia’s Rostov region, about 250 kilometers from the frontlines. The attack, which occurred on June 13, highlights the airfield's crucial role in supporting Russian Air Force operations in Ukraine, particularly as a base for Su-34 strike fighters.

The extent of the damage remains uncertain, but initial reports suggest no aircraft were destroyed. The vulnerability of Russian airbases to drone strikes is a growing concern, indicating potential for more frequent attacks due to limited air defense capabilities.

Ukraine’s ability to target key Russian sites has been significantly bolstered by American ATACMS ballistic missiles and support from Western specialists, NATO satellite networks, and air surveillance data. In mid-May, ATACMS missiles were used to strike Russia’s Belbek Air Base in Crimea, destroying two MiG-31 interceptors. Additionally, a drone attack targeted a Voronezh-DM radar system in Armavir, a critical component of Russia’s defense against Western missile threats.

In response, the U.S. has eased restrictions on Ukrainian operations, allowing deeper strikes within Russia using American weaponry. Consequently, Russia deployed an S-500 system in June to enhance its missile defense capabilities.

Ukraine's increased focus on drone and missile strikes comes amid ground setbacks and heavy casualties, allowing the Russian Army to gain territory since late 2022. The drone strike on Morozovsk Airport, targeting Su-34s, seems to be retaliation for Russian airstrikes on June 12, which hit a Ukrainian command post in the Northern Military District zone using high-explosive aviation bombs with precision modules.

On June 13, Russian media shared images of a pontoon crossing over the Pecheneg Dam in Kharkiv Oblast, destroyed by a Su-34 strike using a Kh-38MLE missile. The attack submerged several sections of the crossing, with footage capturing two Ukrainian military trucks approaching just before the missile hit.

The bridge in Stari Saltov across the Seversky Donets has been a repeated target, initially destroyed early in the conflict and rebuilt by Ukrainian engineers. This continued targeting underscores the strategic importance of these crossings in the ongoing conflict.

On February 21, 2022, Russia claimed a border facility attack by Ukrainian forces, which Ukraine denied as false flags. That same day, Russia recognized the self-proclaimed areas of DPR and LPR, and subsequently, Putin sent military forces into these regions. This action escalated on February 24, 2022, with Putin launching a full-scale assault on Ukraine, labeled as a "special military operation" by Russia.

Despite rumors, the U.S. may not provide Ukraine with ATACMS missiles with a 300km range, maintaining the focus on current support measures.

Ukraine Targets Russian Air Defenses in Preparation for F-16 Fighter Jet Arrival

 

Ukrainian forces are ramping up efforts to degrade Russian air defense systems in anticipation of receiving F-16 fighter jets later this year, according to the latest analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The June 12 report from the US-based think tank highlights Ukraine's strategic campaign to weaken Russian defenses, potentially allowing for more effective use of manned fixed-wing aircraft in the ongoing conflict.

The assessment details recent Ukrainian military actions targeting critical Russian air defense installations. On the night of June 11-12, Ukrainian forces successfully struck an S-300 air defense battery and two S-400 batteries near the occupied areas of Belbek and Sevastopol in Crimea. Geolocated images released on June 12 confirm the damage, including the destruction of an S-400 radar system south of occupied Dzhankoi and damaged S-300 assets north of occupied Yevpatoria. These strikes support earlier reports from Ukraine’s General Staff about successful attacks on Russian air defense assets.

Kostiantyn Nemichev, founder of the Kraken Regiment of Defense Intelligence of Ukraine (DIU), confirmed on June 12 that Ukrainian forces used HIMARS to destroy four Russian S-300 systems in Belgorod Oblast. Although Nemichev did not specify the exact dates, this action caused Russia to redeploy air defense assets from Crimea to Belgorod Oblast in early June 2024, reducing air defense coverage around Crimea.

Additionally, DIU spokesperson Andrii Yusov corrected earlier reports about drone strikes on the Akhtubinsk air base in Astrakhan Oblast, clarifying on June 12 that two Russian Su-57 fighter aircraft were damaged between June 7-8, not just one as initially reported. The S-300/S-400 air defense systems and Su-57 fighters are crucial for Russia’s efforts to restrict Ukrainian air operations and support its offensive activities in Ukraine.

The ISW assessment suggests these Ukrainian strikes are part of a broader strategy to weaken Russian air defenses before the planned delivery of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, expected to start in small quantities during the summer and fall of 2024. The report states, “Ukrainian forces may seek to actively degrade Russian air defenses before Ukraine receives a significant number of aircraft in order to set conditions for Ukraine’s future use of manned fixed-wing airpower closer to frontline areas.”

ISW believes that successful weakening of Russian air defenses, combined with sufficient fighter jets and trained pilots, could enable Ukraine to integrate fixed-wing aircraft more effectively to support ground forces.

Challenges for Ukraine Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Norway have pledged to supply Ukraine with over 80 US-made F-16 fighter jets to strengthen its defense against Russian attacks. The addition of these F-16s will significantly enhance Ukraine’s air-to-air and air-to-ground capabilities. However, the war has shown that no single platform, even one as capable as the F-16, can single-handedly secure victory for Ukraine. The critical factor will be how these aircraft are integrated into a broader combat strategy.

Experts have noted that Ukrainian pilots who are not well-versed in proper tactics for using these advanced fighters will not fully benefit from the capabilities of a fourth-generation aircraft. Retired US Air Force Brigadier General John Teichert explained that the US approach to deploying new weapons involves extensive education, training, and combat exercises to ensure proficiency. While Ukrainian pilots are being trained to operate these fighters, achieving the same level of proficiency as American aviators in the near term will be nearly impossible.

Moreover, the issue of pilot training has recently come to the forefront. Western officials have indicated that Ukraine will continue to face material and training constraints, likely preventing it from utilizing fixed-wing airpower on a large scale in 2024. Both Ukrainian and Western officials have stated that it will take considerable time to adequately train enough Ukrainian pilots and equip Ukrainian forces with the approximately 150 F-16s needed to achieve air superiority to support ground operations.

Yet, Ukrainian officials have outlined their plans to use F-16s and other fixed-wing aircraft to limit Russian aviation activities. Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Ilya Yevlash mentioned that just two F-16 squadrons, roughly 18 aircraft, could significantly impact the situation in Ukrainian airspace.

The ISW noted, “These restraints should not fundamentally constrain Ukraine’s ability to leverage airpower at scale in the long run, however, should Ukraine’s Western partners lean into supporting Ukraine’s air domain and deep strike capabilities.”