China Advances Toward Sixth-Generation Fighter Jet with Significant Progress

 Despite China's notorious secrecy surrounding its defense projects, there are signs of progress in developing a sixth-generation fighter jet. The clearest indication came from a January 2019 WeChat post by the Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC). In an interview, Wang Haifeng, the chief designer at Chengdu Aerospace Corp., an AVIC subsidiary, revealed plans for a combat aircraft designed to "protect the sea and sky" by 2035.

Wang mentioned features such as manned-unmanned teaming, artificial intelligence, enhanced stealth, and omnidirectional sensors. In 2022, U.S. Air Combat Command’s head affirmed these efforts are "on track," noting that China views sixth-gen technology similarly to the U.S., emphasizing stealth, processing power, and reprogrammable open-mission systems.

Rick Joe, a Chinese military expert, now considers these sixth-gen efforts a confirmed program. Since 2019, there have been more indicators, including AVIC artwork of next-gen fighter designs, academic papers, and statements from officials. In October 2021, satellite imagery showed a tailless fighter-like airframe at Chengdu Aerospace facilities.

Joe reported that demonstrator testbeds, possibly subscale versions, have already flown. Without an official name, he referred to the aircraft as the J-XD, noting it might initially have less capable subsystems compared to U.S. equivalents but is closing the technological gap.

Sixth-gen fighters are expected to feature advanced aerodynamic design, radiofrequency materials, flight control software, sensing technologies, data-linking and combat-management systems, weapons, and integration with collaborative drones. Joe believes China is competing on par with other nations pursuing similar capabilities.

However, Brendan Mulvaney, director of the U.S. Air Force’s China Aerospace Studies Institute, expressed a more cautious outlook. While he acknowledges China’s potential to develop advanced fighters in the future, he doubts they have the capability today. He highlighted China’s challenges with jet engine development but noted significant improvements.

Mulvaney suggested that China's future fighter might be optionally manned, allowing for autonomous operations or serving as a loyal wingman. While Chinese drone technology is ambitious, it remains unclear how it will complement a sixth-gen fighter. Joe noted that current Chinese combat drones displayed at air shows are likely not representative of those intended for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), which are probably more advanced.

The GJ-11 combat drone, unveiled in 2019, exemplifies China's progress in unmanned systems. Joe believes sophisticated combat drones are in advanced development or limited trial service. The J-20 fighter's twin-seat variant, designed for manned-unmanned teaming, could also contribute to these efforts.

If Wang's prediction of an operational sixth-gen fighter by 2035 is accurate, a maiden flight would need to occur by 2028, implying a prototype should be ready soon. While Joe is confident in this timeline, Mulvaney estimates China will reveal a meaningful design in the late 2030s or early 2040s.

Northrop Grumman’s Manta Ray: Revolutionary Underwater Drone with Extended Capabilities

 

Northrop Grumman’s Manta Ray submersible underwater drone has been the subject of considerable interest for some time. Its exact dimensions have become clearer only recently, thanks to satellite images, including one captured a year ago and another more recently, which have been circulating on social media.

The Manta Ray, seen docked at the Port Hueneme Naval Base in California, has an imposing presence. The War Zone has even compared its size to that of a spaceship from Star Wars, suggesting it looks as though it has landed on Tatooine. This image, available on Google Earth from November 2023, includes a 3D visualization to help appreciate the Manta Ray’s massive size.

Official data indicates that the Manta Ray is approximately 30 feet long. This size allows it to house complex sensors and communication equipment while maintaining a streamlined design for efficient underwater movement. Its wingspan, critical for stability and maneuverability, is about 20 feet, enabling it to glide effortlessly underwater. The drone stands around 5 feet tall.

Unveiling the Manta Ray: What We Know

The Northrop Grumman Manta Ray is an advanced underwater vehicle designed for various military and research applications. It is part of a larger initiative to develop autonomous systems capable of extended underwater operations without human intervention.

The Manta Ray employs a range of sophisticated systems to ensure functionality and effectiveness. These include advanced sonar and sensor arrays for navigation and detection, communication systems for data transmission, and AI-driven software for autonomous decision-making and mission planning.

Manta Ray’s Propulsion and Equipment

The Manta Ray’s propulsion is powered by a combination of electric motors and energy-efficient propellers, allowing for quiet operation crucial for stealth missions and minimizing detection by adversaries.

Technologically, the Manta Ray boasts high-resolution imaging systems, environmental monitoring tools, and customizable payload bays for specific missions. Its primary purpose is to enhance military underwater operational capabilities, including intelligence gathering, mine countermeasures, and anti-submarine warfare. Its versatility also makes it suitable for non-military uses such as oceanographic research and underwater infrastructure inspection.

The Manta Ray is designed for extensive operational range, allowing it to cover large areas without frequent resurfacing. Its energy-efficient systems and advanced battery technology provide significant operational endurance, enabling it to stay underwater for weeks or even months, depending on mission requirements and environmental conditions. This long-duration capability distinguishes it from many other submersible drones, allowing for sustained operations in challenging underwater environments.

Ongoing Development and Future Prospects

Since 2020, Northrop Grumman has been developing the Manta Ray underwater drone under the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) initiative. This project aims to create autonomous underwater vehicles capable of long-term missions without human intervention. The first tests of the Manta Ray took place in 2023, assessing its performance in various underwater environments and its ability to execute advanced missions autonomously.

The exact number of Manta Rays slated for production remains undisclosed. However, the strategic value of these autonomous underwater vehicles suggests that production numbers will depend on the success of these initial tests and further evaluations.

If early tests are successful, the production and deployment of Manta Ray submersible drones could begin in the latter half of this decade. This timeline allows for refinements and enhancements based on test outcomes, ensuring these drones meet the operational needs of the US Navy and other potential stakeholders.

India to Reconsider Russian Su-57 Stealth Fighter to Counter China's J-20

 The Indian Air Force (IAF), recognized as the fourth largest air force globally, is currently without a fifth-generation fighter jet. Despite previous involvement in the Sukhoi/HAL Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) project, which was based on Russia's Sukhoi Su-57, India withdrew from the program in 2018. However, the possibility of revisiting this decision remains open.

Globally, 19 countries operate fifth-generation fighters. China uses its Chengdu J-20 ‘Mighty Dragon,’ while Russia employs the Sukhoi Su-57 ‘Felon.’ Seventeen other nations have adopted the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II, with the U.S. exclusively operating the F-22 Raptor. Only the U.S., China, and Russia have developed original fifth-generation fighters, though many nations participate in F-35 development.

The FGFA project aimed to integrate 43 enhancements proposed by India into the Su-57, including advanced sensors and avionics. The Indian variant was planned to be a two-seater, featuring a pilot and a weapon systems operator (WSO). Since stepping away from FGFA, India has focused on developing its own fifth-generation fighter, the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA). However, the Su-57 remains an option, especially given the F-35's unavailability due to India's acquisition of the Russian S-400 air defense system.

The Sukhoi Su-57 is a twin-engine, stealth multirole fighter first developed in 1999 and introduced to the Russian military in 2020. Known for its air superiority and ability to engage surface and maritime targets, the Su-57 boasts stealth features, super-maneuverability, and a large payload capacity. Despite its advanced capabilities, the Su-57 has faced technological and financial hurdles, including issues with structural integrity during early tests.

The Su-57 features a blended wing body fuselage, extensive use of composites, and advanced stealth technologies aimed at reducing radar and infrared signatures. It is equipped with sophisticated avionics, including a modular avionics system and various radar systems for enhanced situational awareness. The aircraft can deploy various countermeasures and is being tested for advanced AI and unmanned teaming technologies.

Russia's production of the Su-57 has been slow, with plans for significant expansion. Initial operational use included deployments in Syria and Ukraine, demonstrating the aircraft's capabilities in combat situations. Future developments include an upgraded Su-57M variant, a potential carrier-based version, and integration with the Okhotnik UCAV for uncrewed operations.

In contrast, China’s Chengdu J-20 ‘Mighty Dragon’ has seen rapid production, with nearly 250 units built. Designed for air superiority and precision strikes, the J-20 features advanced stealth design, powerful radar systems, and high maneuverability. The J-20’s production and deployment have outpaced the Su-57, reflecting China's growing military capabilities.

India, once a partner in the FGFA project, remains cautious about fully committing to the Su-57. Given the challenges and delays in developing the AMCA, India might reconsider the Su-57 or explore other options like the Su-75 Checkmate. However, with China's expanding J-20 fleet and potential threats from neighboring countries, India must act swiftly to ensure its air force remains competitive.

The Su-57 and J-20 will likely compete for market share in regions like Africa, West Asia, and Southeast Asia. Despite their differences, both aircraft offer cost-competitive solutions for countries seeking advanced air combat capabilities. As the global landscape of fifth-generation fighters evolves, India’s decisions will significantly impact its strategic military position.

USS Connecticut Submarine Accident Highlights Detection Vulnerabilities in South China Sea

 

The USS Connecticut, a Seawolf-class nuclear attack submarine, encountered a significant mishap during a classified mission in October 2021, revealing vulnerabilities despite its advanced stealth technology. This incident, which took place in the South China Sea (SCS), led to extensive investigations aiming to uncover the reasons behind the accident.

On the fateful day, the USS Connecticut struck a seamount while cruising at high speed in the northern SCS, tarnishing the reputation of one of the US Navy's most powerful and expensive submarines. The incident prompted calls for a thorough investigation, especially given China's criticism of the US's opaqueness and irresponsibility regarding the event's specifics.

A recent Chinese study, led by engineer Li Yuhang of the 713th Research Institute of China State Shipbuilding Corporation, provided new insights. The researchers used real-world data from Chinese sensors in the SCS to examine water surface wakes. Published in the Chinese Journal of Theoretical and Applied Mechanics on May 27, the study found that submarines like the SSN-22, traveling at depths of 100 meters and speeds over 20 knots, can create detectable surface ripples, potentially revealing their position.

This groundbreaking finding challenged previous assumptions about modern submarine invincibility and highlighted the delicate balance of power in the region. The study's results were the first to use real SCS data to systematically analyze the water surface response to submarine movement.

The US Navy's investigation into the accident identified multiple failures in navigation planning, execution, and risk management as the cause. The investigation revealed that the USS Connecticut’s navigation review team had failed to identify and mark at least ten underwater hazards and had incorrectly assessed the operating area as open. This led to a significant period of inactivity for the submarine due to damage, with eleven sailors sustaining minor injuries.

The incident also reignited US-China tensions over territorial claims in the South China Sea. On October 2, 2021, the USS Connecticut struck an object in international waters during China's National Day celebrations, coinciding with heightened military drills by the People's Liberation Army (PLA) near Taiwan. The PLA's air activity saw a significant increase, escalating tensions further.

Technological advancements in wake detection have also played a role in understanding the incident. Recent progress in AI and anti-submarine radar technology, including the development of a 6G radar capable of detecting minute submarine ripples, has improved the ability to locate submarines. Chinese researchers reported a 96 percent accuracy rate in detecting submarine wakes using AI, highlighting the growing sophistication of detection systems.

In conclusion, the USS Connecticut's collision has underscored the evolving dynamics of undersea warfare, where stealth alone is no longer sufficient. The incident has marked a significant moment in the race for technological superiority in the challenging environment of the South China Sea, influencing the future of submarine operations.

China Aims for 1,000 J-20 Jets by 2035: Can India's AMCA Narrow the Gap?

 India is striving for self-reliance in developing indigenous fighter jets, with plans to launch the fifth-generation Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) program in 2024. However, by the time the AMCA becomes operational, China aims to have 1,000 J-20 'Mighty Dragon' 5th-generation jets in its arsenal.

China, the second country to deploy an operational 5th-generation fighter, is now advancing towards 6th-generation technologies. The J-20, a twinjet all-weather stealth fighter by Chengdu Aerospace Corporation for the People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF), first flew in 2011 and was revealed in 2016. Entering service in 2017, the PLAAF already has over 200 J-20s, targeting 400 by 2027 and 1,000 by 2035. Some J-20s are positioned less than 150 kilometers from India in the Sikkim region.

The J-20 is designed for air superiority and precision strikes. Currently, the Indian Air Force (IAF) counters with 36 French-built Rafale jets, stationed at the Hasimara air base in West Bengal, close to where J-20s are deployed.

Despite issues with jet engines, China’s early deployment of stealth aircraft gives it a significant lead in maturing 5th-generation capabilities compared to India's AMCA, which is still in the development phase. Retired Air Marshal Anil Chopra highlighted that India is still evolving technologies for its fifth-generation aircraft, including aero-engines, AESA radars, EW systems, and AI-based avionics.

There is pressure within India to accelerate its timeline. The Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) approved Rs. 15,000 crores ($1.9B) in March 2024 to develop the AMCA. The Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA) under the Defense Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) will lead the project, with manufacturing by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL).

HAL is currently focusing on producing more LCA Mk1A jets to fulfill IAF orders before progressing to the LCA Mk2 and then the AMCA. The ADA asserts that the 25-ton twin-engine AMCA will be on par with or superior to other 5th-generation fighters globally once completed.

Air Marshal Chopra suggested that India consider collaborative routes, like joining the GCAP or the French-led FCAS program, to share costs and risks. The IAF’s reliance on aging third-generation jets, while neighboring adversaries rapidly upgrade, adds urgency to the situation. Pakistan might even acquire a fifth-generation fighter before the AMCA.

India's initial quest for a next-gen fighter began 15 years ago with a collaboration with Russia on the Fifth Generation Fighter Jet (FGFA). However, delays and missed deadlines have plagued the DRDO. The AMCA project, originally expected to produce a prototype in three years, now faces a timeline of seven years for its first flight and ten years for induction, pushing initial expectations from 2027 to 2035.

IAF Chief Air Chief Marshal VR Chaudhari advised caution, recommending foreign partnerships for alternative systems if domestic development falters. DRDO Chairman Samir Kamat’s revised timeline aligns with this cautious approach.

Former IAF veteran Vijaindra K Thakur warned about the risks of project delays and technological shortfalls, emphasizing the need for the CCS to stay vigilant about the AMCA’s impact on the IAF’s combat readiness. Balancing self-reliance with operational capability remains crucial for India's defense strategy amidst growing regional threats.

Chinese Satellite Tracks US F-22 Raptor: A Potential Shift in Aerial Surveillance Capabilities

 Chang Guang, a Chinese commercial aerospace company, has released a brief video purportedly showing a satellite tracking a US F-22 Raptor fighter jet. The video, which dates back to 2020, was shared by Clash Report on X and reportedly utilizes the commercial Jilin-1 remote control satellite system.

The footage is notably short, lasting just six seconds, during which the satellite’s camera tracks the aircraft, identified as an American F-22 Raptor navigating through partly cloudy skies. This raises several questions: Is the aircraft truly an F-22? Was the video edited? Did the Jilin-1 satellite system actually perform the tracking? And why release only a brief segment?

While observing the F-22 in video footage isn't unusual, its stealth technology makes it nearly invisible to radar but not to the naked eye. If the satellite can track the F-22 beyond these six seconds, it suggests a significant advancement in combat capabilities, implying that satellites could detect aircraft that ground-based radars might miss.

Reports confirming that Chinese satellites tracked an F-22 flight would spark discussions on combat capabilities. Stealth planes like the F-22 are not completely invisible to radars but have "low observability," making them harder to detect. The F-22’s radar cross-section (RCS) is about 0.0001 m², akin to a small metallic pebble, making it detectable at 1/17.5 of the distance of a typical fighter jet. However, detection depends greatly on the viewing angle.

While the F-22’s radar signature is minimal, it is still detectable, meaning tracking a known stealth aircraft is feasible. This suggests that integrating orbital technology with ground stations could enhance radar focus on specific sectors, aiding in identifying stealth aircraft signatures, assuming clear skies and no interference.

China’s Jilin-1 Satellite System, developed by Chang Guang Satellite Technology Co., Ltd., is a constellation of commercial remote sensing satellites providing high-resolution imagery and video for applications such as environmental monitoring, urban planning, and disaster response. It features diverse satellite types, including optical imaging, video, and hyperspectral satellites, allowing for a wide range of data capture. With a high revisit frequency, the system provides frequent updates of the same geographic area, crucial for real-time monitoring.

Launched initially in 2015, the Jilin-1 constellation has expanded significantly and now includes dozens of satellites, with plans for further growth.

Footage from 2020 has revealed that Chinese engineers are working on an advanced AI system to enhance the capabilities of low-cost commercial satellites, potentially transforming them into powerful surveillance tools. Reports suggest this system could improve success rates by up to seven times compared to current technology. Developed by researchers in the Chinese military, this AI system claims to track moving objects as small as a car with remarkable precision, achieving 95% accuracy in identifying small objects in Jilin-1 satellite videos, significantly surpassing existing methods.

MBDA Germany Unveils New Long-Range Cruise Missile for Future Combat Air System at Berlin Air Show

 As the European next-generation fighter program, the Future Combat Air System (FCAS), led by France, Germany, and Spain, continues to develop, MBDA Germany has introduced a conceptual standoff-range cruise missile that may become a key component of FCAS.

According to Flight Global, the new missile concept, named ‘remote carrier multi-domain multi-role effector’ (RCM²), was revealed at the ILA Berlin Air Show. The missile is expected to have a strike range exceeding 500 kilometers.

A replica of the approximately 4-meter-long design is on display at the FCAS exhibit at the ILA Berlin Air Show, which began on June 5 and will continue until June 9.

Thomas Gottschild, managing director of MBDA Germany, stated that the RCM² would be suitable for various missions, with performance comparable to the current Taurus cruise missile.

The Taurus missile is known for its long range of about 500 kilometers, advanced navigation systems, and high accuracy. Its terrain-contour matching navigation system makes it less susceptible to electronic jamming, and its extended range enhances the safety of fighter jet pilots. However, Gottschild emphasized that the RCM² would offer additional capabilities, such as carrying different payloads, including a kinetic warhead or electronic combat and jamming tools, making it versatile for various scenarios.

Without an extended booster, the RCM² is expected to have a launch weight under 340 kilograms. It will be equipped with an imaging infrared seeker, an inertial navigation system, and a turbofan engine.

This missile's unveiling comes at a time when FCAS is gaining momentum after experiencing delays and difficulties among the three partner nations. Gottschild also mentioned a joint project with Rheinmetall to develop a small anti-drone missile.

Furthermore, Gottschild has urged Germany to consider integrating the Meteor air-to-air missile from MBDA with its incoming fleet of 35 Lockheed Martin F-35A aircraft.

MBDA was not the only company to make headlines at the Berlin Air Show. Airbus revealed a full-sized model of its futuristic unmanned wingman concept aircraft and announced a new collaboration with German AI startup Helsing to develop AI capabilities for the airframe.

The new aircraft, known as Wingman, is designed to meet the evolving operational needs of the German Air Force. According to Airbus, it will operate alongside manned combat aircraft, such as the Eurofighter Typhoon, to enhance capability and maintain air superiority. The Wingman will be controlled by a manned fighter jet pilot, adhering to human-in-the-loop protocols.

Additionally, Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced that Germany would purchase several Eurofighter Typhoons.

AI's Rapid Rise in Warfare Sparks Concerns: Experts Warn of Uncontrolled Arms Race

 

The advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) in warfare, particularly accelerated by recent conflicts like those in Ukraine and Gaza, is leading to significant concerns among experts. Autonomous decision-making is rapidly reshaping modern combat scenarios, with AI-driven weapons systems capable of making critical decisions, including target selection and engagement, at unprecedented speeds.

Natasha Bajema, a senior research associate at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, warned of the potential dangers of escalating conflict speeds driven by autonomous systems. She highlighted the challenge of maintaining human oversight in increasingly automated battles, comparing the situation to the race for nuclear weapons in the past.

Despite longstanding calls for restrictions on AI in military applications, the appetite for autonomy in weapons has grown significantly, overshadowing previous concerns. However, efforts to address these challenges persist. Austria, for instance, has spearheaded international initiatives to establish regulations for AI-enabled weapons, hosting a global conference on autonomous weapon systems with broad international participation.

While there is growing interest, particularly from the Global South, in regulating AI technology in warfare, significant obstacles remain, including the reluctance of major global powers to commit to multilateral agreements. Zachary Kallenborn, lead researcher at Looking Glass USA, emphasized the technological limitations of AI, particularly in machine vision, which remains error-prone and susceptible to misinterpretation.

The disposable nature of drones and the potential for unintended consequences pose additional challenges. Intercepting autonomous systems may lead to unpredictable responses, complicating the already complex landscape of modern warfare. Natasha Bajema highlighted the "terminator problem," where states feel compelled to pursue AI-driven weapons for security reasons, further complicating efforts to regulate the technology.

Ambassador Alexander Kmentt acknowledged the difficulty of achieving universal consensus on AI regulation but emphasized the importance of collaboration among interested parties. However, he expressed pessimism about the prospects of success given the geopolitical challenges and the reluctance of certain countries to engage in multilateral arms control efforts.

With the target date of 2026 set by the United Nations for establishing clear prohibitions and restrictions on autonomous weapon systems, there is a sense of urgency among advocates for AI nonproliferation. Failure to make significant progress by then could close the window for preventive action, further complicating efforts to regulate AI in warfare.