India’s Struggle to Modernize its Fighter Fleet: The Challenges and Choices Ahead

 India's plan to procure 114 Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA), a highly anticipated defense deal, remains uncertain. The Indian Air Force (IAF) currently operates 31 fighter squadrons, well below the authorized 42, and needs more to face its two major adversaries.

The IAF has ordered nearly 200 Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Mk1 and Mk1A variants and has committed to 200 LCA Mk2s. However, nine years after the first IAF LCA squadrons were formed, only about 40 LCA aircraft are in service. Even with increased production to 24 aircraft per year, it will take time to meet the required numbers. India's Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) is still over a decade away, and the aging MiG 21s are still in use. The Jaguars and Mirage 2000 fleets need to retire by around 2030. Despite the push for self-reliance, India will need to induct the 114 MRFA to bridge the gap.

The initial Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) process was limited to 36 Rafale jets due to technical reasons. The IAF has specified the operational requirements for these 114 aircraft.

A recent report by the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Defence highlighted delays in delivering the initial 40 LCAs to the IAF and suggested exploring the purchase of fifth-generation fighter aircraft.

MRFA Competition

India issued a Request for Information (RFI) in April 2018 for the 114 MRFA. Responses from contenders were received later in 2018. The Indian Navy was also asked to consider new fighter jets alongside this program. The Navy needs a twin-engine fighter, focusing on the Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet and Dassault Rafale-M, likely opting for 26 Rafale-Ms.

Eight aircraft are competing for the IAF’s MRFA: Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, Boeing F-15EX Eagle II, Dassault Rafale, Eurofighter Typhoon, Lockheed Martin F-21 (a variant of the F-16V customized for India), Mikoyan MiG-35, Saab JAS-39 Gripen E/F, and Sukhoi Su-35.

The next step involves the Defence Acquisition Council's (DAC) Acceptance of Necessity (AoN) and issuing a Request for Proposal (RFP). Even if the RFP is issued today, it could take over five years for the aircraft to be inducted. India's security establishment must make an early decision on the 114 aircraft import.

Big Ticket Assessment

Russia has proposed two aircraft: the MiG-35, which did not qualify in the earlier MMRCA selection, and the new Su-35. The Su-35, part of the Su-27/30 family, is not a viable option due to India's already significant fleet of similar aircraft and planned upgrades. The Russian industry is also preoccupied with domestic demands due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

If the Indian Navy selects the Rafale-M, the interest in the F/A-18 Super Hornet will decline. India has invested in the Rafale infrastructure and modifications, suggesting that acquiring more Rafale jets, potentially making 140 (114+26) in India, is logical.

The Saab JAS-39 Gripen E/F and Eurofighter Typhoon are strong contenders. The Gripen, with its GE 414 engine, and Eurofighter, with its extensive global presence, offer good options, although geopolitical factors and technology transfer levels will influence the decision.

US Influence in India's Aircraft Ecosystem

India has already integrated several US aircraft, including the Boeing P8I, Lockheed C-130J, and others. The upcoming purchase of General Atomics MQ-9B Predator Drones further solidifies US involvement. Evaluating the F-15EX and F-21 (an advanced F-16 variant) is essential.

The F-15EX, with its impressive payload and advanced features, is a heavy, costly option, adding complexity to India’s diverse fleet. The F-21, an advanced F-16, offers in-country production potential but faces public perception challenges due to Pakistan's use of F-16s.

Conclusion

India must make a one-time purchase of 114 aircraft, ideally the same type for the IAF and Navy, with significant technology transfer and in-country production. The US is eager to integrate into India’s fighter aircraft ecosystem, reflecting geopolitical closeness. Ideally, the US should offer the F-35, addressing technical barriers like the S-400 linkage.

Balancing India's aircraft mix to reduce dependence on Russian and Western suppliers while increasing indigenous production is crucial for long-term strategic autonomy.

India to Reconsider Russian Su-57 Stealth Fighter to Counter China's J-20

 The Indian Air Force (IAF), recognized as the fourth largest air force globally, is currently without a fifth-generation fighter jet. Despite previous involvement in the Sukhoi/HAL Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) project, which was based on Russia's Sukhoi Su-57, India withdrew from the program in 2018. However, the possibility of revisiting this decision remains open.

Globally, 19 countries operate fifth-generation fighters. China uses its Chengdu J-20 ‘Mighty Dragon,’ while Russia employs the Sukhoi Su-57 ‘Felon.’ Seventeen other nations have adopted the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II, with the U.S. exclusively operating the F-22 Raptor. Only the U.S., China, and Russia have developed original fifth-generation fighters, though many nations participate in F-35 development.

The FGFA project aimed to integrate 43 enhancements proposed by India into the Su-57, including advanced sensors and avionics. The Indian variant was planned to be a two-seater, featuring a pilot and a weapon systems operator (WSO). Since stepping away from FGFA, India has focused on developing its own fifth-generation fighter, the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA). However, the Su-57 remains an option, especially given the F-35's unavailability due to India's acquisition of the Russian S-400 air defense system.

The Sukhoi Su-57 is a twin-engine, stealth multirole fighter first developed in 1999 and introduced to the Russian military in 2020. Known for its air superiority and ability to engage surface and maritime targets, the Su-57 boasts stealth features, super-maneuverability, and a large payload capacity. Despite its advanced capabilities, the Su-57 has faced technological and financial hurdles, including issues with structural integrity during early tests.

The Su-57 features a blended wing body fuselage, extensive use of composites, and advanced stealth technologies aimed at reducing radar and infrared signatures. It is equipped with sophisticated avionics, including a modular avionics system and various radar systems for enhanced situational awareness. The aircraft can deploy various countermeasures and is being tested for advanced AI and unmanned teaming technologies.

Russia's production of the Su-57 has been slow, with plans for significant expansion. Initial operational use included deployments in Syria and Ukraine, demonstrating the aircraft's capabilities in combat situations. Future developments include an upgraded Su-57M variant, a potential carrier-based version, and integration with the Okhotnik UCAV for uncrewed operations.

In contrast, China’s Chengdu J-20 ‘Mighty Dragon’ has seen rapid production, with nearly 250 units built. Designed for air superiority and precision strikes, the J-20 features advanced stealth design, powerful radar systems, and high maneuverability. The J-20’s production and deployment have outpaced the Su-57, reflecting China's growing military capabilities.

India, once a partner in the FGFA project, remains cautious about fully committing to the Su-57. Given the challenges and delays in developing the AMCA, India might reconsider the Su-57 or explore other options like the Su-75 Checkmate. However, with China's expanding J-20 fleet and potential threats from neighboring countries, India must act swiftly to ensure its air force remains competitive.

The Su-57 and J-20 will likely compete for market share in regions like Africa, West Asia, and Southeast Asia. Despite their differences, both aircraft offer cost-competitive solutions for countries seeking advanced air combat capabilities. As the global landscape of fifth-generation fighters evolves, India’s decisions will significantly impact its strategic military position.

China Aims for 1,000 J-20 Jets by 2035: Can India's AMCA Narrow the Gap?

 India is striving for self-reliance in developing indigenous fighter jets, with plans to launch the fifth-generation Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) program in 2024. However, by the time the AMCA becomes operational, China aims to have 1,000 J-20 'Mighty Dragon' 5th-generation jets in its arsenal.

China, the second country to deploy an operational 5th-generation fighter, is now advancing towards 6th-generation technologies. The J-20, a twinjet all-weather stealth fighter by Chengdu Aerospace Corporation for the People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF), first flew in 2011 and was revealed in 2016. Entering service in 2017, the PLAAF already has over 200 J-20s, targeting 400 by 2027 and 1,000 by 2035. Some J-20s are positioned less than 150 kilometers from India in the Sikkim region.

The J-20 is designed for air superiority and precision strikes. Currently, the Indian Air Force (IAF) counters with 36 French-built Rafale jets, stationed at the Hasimara air base in West Bengal, close to where J-20s are deployed.

Despite issues with jet engines, China’s early deployment of stealth aircraft gives it a significant lead in maturing 5th-generation capabilities compared to India's AMCA, which is still in the development phase. Retired Air Marshal Anil Chopra highlighted that India is still evolving technologies for its fifth-generation aircraft, including aero-engines, AESA radars, EW systems, and AI-based avionics.

There is pressure within India to accelerate its timeline. The Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) approved Rs. 15,000 crores ($1.9B) in March 2024 to develop the AMCA. The Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA) under the Defense Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) will lead the project, with manufacturing by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL).

HAL is currently focusing on producing more LCA Mk1A jets to fulfill IAF orders before progressing to the LCA Mk2 and then the AMCA. The ADA asserts that the 25-ton twin-engine AMCA will be on par with or superior to other 5th-generation fighters globally once completed.

Air Marshal Chopra suggested that India consider collaborative routes, like joining the GCAP or the French-led FCAS program, to share costs and risks. The IAF’s reliance on aging third-generation jets, while neighboring adversaries rapidly upgrade, adds urgency to the situation. Pakistan might even acquire a fifth-generation fighter before the AMCA.

India's initial quest for a next-gen fighter began 15 years ago with a collaboration with Russia on the Fifth Generation Fighter Jet (FGFA). However, delays and missed deadlines have plagued the DRDO. The AMCA project, originally expected to produce a prototype in three years, now faces a timeline of seven years for its first flight and ten years for induction, pushing initial expectations from 2027 to 2035.

IAF Chief Air Chief Marshal VR Chaudhari advised caution, recommending foreign partnerships for alternative systems if domestic development falters. DRDO Chairman Samir Kamat’s revised timeline aligns with this cautious approach.

Former IAF veteran Vijaindra K Thakur warned about the risks of project delays and technological shortfalls, emphasizing the need for the CCS to stay vigilant about the AMCA’s impact on the IAF’s combat readiness. Balancing self-reliance with operational capability remains crucial for India's defense strategy amidst growing regional threats.