Western Sanctions Fail to Diminish Russian Military-Industrial Output Amid Ukraine Conflict

 

Despite extensive sanctions and significant efforts, Western nations have been unable to effectively undermine Russia's military-industrial complex. This issue extends beyond electronic components, which continue to reach Russia through alternative and more costly routes despite export restrictions. The production of shells, missiles, armored vehicles, and drones has surged, enabling President Vladimir Putin to persist in his aggressive campaign against a neighboring country.

Experts from the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), Jack Watling and Gary Somerville, attribute the West's failure to halt Russia’s military operations to a lack of a unified approach during the initial sanction phase, among other factors.

A significant issue is Europe’s lack of infrastructure to enforce sanctions effectively, unlike the United States. Europe has historically treated sanctions more as a regulatory tool rather than economic warfare, aiming to shame rather than significantly disrupt harmful activities.

Despite the concerted efforts of Ukraine's international allies, Russia continues to obtain nitrocellulose from Germany, Turkey, and Taiwan. Additionally, it sources other essential raw materials for explosives globally, allowing rapid escalation in ammunition production. Since the war began, Russia has significantly increased its production of:

• 152-mm artillery shells: Increasing production by 5.3 times, from 250,000 per year to an expected 1.325 million in 2024. Around 800,000 122-mm shells are expected this year.
• Grad multiple launch rocket systems: Production will increase by 15.2 times, from 33,000 to over 500,000 shells. The Uragan system will see a 6.1 times increase, from 2,800 in 2023 to 17,000 this year.
• Kh-101 cruise missiles: Production has increased from 56 units in 2021 to a projected 420 units in 2023, aiming for 460 units.
• 9M723 Iskander missiles: Production has more than tripled, rising from 50 in reserve at the start of 2023 to 180 within a year.
• Iranian Shahed-136 drones: Production has surged 6.3 times, with collaborative production in Russia and Iran now exceeding 250 units monthly.

Estimating armored vehicle production in Russia is challenging. In 2024, Russia is projected to produce around 1,500 tanks and 3,000 other armored vehicles, with 85% being refurbished from existing stocks. The production of new armored vehicles is also increasing, with the Kurgan Machine-Building Plant's BMP-3 units production recorded at 100, 108, 120, and 135 units quarterly in 2023.

Russian manufacturers have adapted to losing access to Thales’ thermal imagers from France by substituting them with Chinese and Belarusian alternatives. These conversions require machine modifications, but significant imports from the United States, Europe, Taiwan, and other countries continue, including essential software updates.

The importation of dual-use goods critical to Russia's military-industrial strength has surged since President Putin met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in March 2023, according to a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Deliveries of helicopter parts, navigation systems, and precision machinery for weapons and aircraft components have jumped from a few thousand to nearly 30,000 monthly, enabling the Kremlin to expedite the production of armaments like armored vehicles, artillery, missiles, and drones. This boost has fortified their defenses during the Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2023, explained CSIS senior fellow Max Bergmann.

Putin's Historic Visit to North Korea: Strengthening Military Ties Amidst Global Tensions

 

The Kremlin has announced that Russian President Vladimir Putin will embark on a two-day visit to North Korea, marking his first trip to the reclusive nation in over twenty years. This visit underscores the growing partnership between the two countries. Following his North Korean visit, Putin will travel to Hanoi, Vietnam, for another two-day visit.

Evidence from Ukraine reveals that Russia's military actions are bolstered by more than just its own arsenal. A recent report from the Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) has unveiled North Korea’s covert role in supporting Moscow's campaign by supplying ballistic missiles.

Since November 2023, North Korea has been discreetly sending artillery rounds and ballistic missiles to Russia, aiding its conflict in Ukraine. The DIA's declassified report highlights North Korea's involvement, showing missile debris in Ukraine that matches North Korean designs.

The DIA report indicates that since November 2023, North Korea has been providing ballistic missiles to Russia, strengthening their alliance. This relationship has grown with increased diplomatic exchanges and visits between the two countries’ leaders. Notably, North Korea was one of the few nations to support Russia’s invasion of Ukraine at the UN.

In September 2023, Kim Jong-un visited Russia, touring military facilities and meeting Putin, which led to Putin planning this reciprocal visit to North Korea.

North Korea’s support for Russia includes supplying at least three million artillery rounds and numerous ballistic missiles. These weapons have been used by Russia in Ukraine, targeting civilian areas and causing significant casualties.

For North Korea, this collaboration offers practical benefits, allowing it to test its missile technology in real-world conditions against advanced missile defenses. This partnership also provides mutual diplomatic support as both nations face heavy Western sanctions.

North Korea has developed advanced missile systems, demonstrated in numerous tests since 2019. The DIA’s analysis compares images of missile debris from Ukraine with North Korean missile designs, confirming their origin.

Historically, North Korea has been a significant player in the global arms trade, selling ballistic missile technology to various countries. Under Kim Jong Un, North Korea has prioritized missile development, creating systems capable of regional and intercontinental strikes, posing a substantial threat to international security.

Putin’s upcoming visit to North Korea follows Kim Jong-un’s rare trip to Russia last year, aiming to solidify their alliance. As both nations face extensive Western sanctions, their relationship has grown closer since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

The upcoming summit between Putin and Kim Jong-un is a pivotal moment in global geopolitics, with both leaders known for their authoritarian regimes and nuclear capabilities. Their meeting signifies a crucial point in international relations, as the world watches their next strategic moves.

How Truck-Mounted Howitzers Like Caesar and Atmos Revolutionize Modern Artillery in Ukraine

 French artillery engineers came up with a straightforward yet effective concept: mount a powerful gun on a truck to create cost-efficient, self-propelled artillery. This idea has proven highly effective on the Ukrainian battlefield, prompting Western militaries to reconsider their artillery strategies.

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has underscored the importance of long-range artillery, a key focus at the Eurosatory defense show in Paris starting June 17. Charles Beaudouin, a retired French general and head of the event, emphasized the necessity for artillery mobility due to threats from drones and rapid counter-battery fire. He highlighted the KNDS France’s Caesar howitzer, mounted on a truck, as a prime example of this trend.

“The advantage of the wheeled cannon is its maximum efficiency,” Beaudouin told Defense News. “You lose nothing in terms of firepower, rate of fire, precision, or range, and you gain a nimble, stealthy vehicle.”

Beaudouin’s support for the Caesar is well-founded, as at least nine other countries, including the UK and Germany, have invested in self-propelled wheeled howitzers recently, influenced by the Ukrainian experience. Paul Daniels, a defense industry consultant, noted a growing focus on these systems due to their performance in Ukraine.

Modern battlefield threats like loitering munitions and precision-guided shells have highlighted the critical need for mobility, as demonstrated by the Israeli firm Elbit Systems’ Atmos howitzer. These systems can quickly move into position, fire multiple rounds, and relocate swiftly—a tactic known as “shoot and scoot.”

KNDS has reported increased interest in the Caesar, partly due to Russian soldiers’ reports of its effectiveness. The Caesar's agility allows it to evade Russian forces, making it particularly feared.

Drone surveillance in Ukraine has forced artillery crews to camouflage their positions or move immediately after firing to avoid retaliatory strikes. Gen. James Rainey of the U.S. Army Futures Command noted the future battlefield’s sensor saturation will make hiding nearly impossible. The U.S. Army is thus reconsidering its artillery modernization, looking at European wheeled howitzers for their range, mobility, and effectiveness.

Recent advancements in artillery technology have made wheeled systems like the Caesar and Atmos highly desirable. The U.S. Army tested these systems, along with others, for competitive evaluation in 2021, noting their longer range compared to current U.S. and Russian systems.

The demand for these systems has surged due to the immediate need highlighted by the conflict in Ukraine. European countries, among others, have turned to wheeled artillery for their mobility and survivability advantages. Eurosatory will showcase several of these systems, including the new Caesar MkII and various other models.

Truck-mounted artillery has gained global popularity, with countries like Turkey and China developing their own versions. Recent purchases by Belgium, Brazil, the UK, and Germany further underscore the trend towards wheeled systems.

The cost benefits of wheeled over tracked artillery are significant, with lower purchase, operation, and maintenance costs. Wheeled systems also offer greater mobility due to their lighter weight, enhancing their tactical advantages on the battlefield.

The Ukrainian conflict has demonstrated the effectiveness of wheeled artillery in a high-intensity war, with the Caesar and other similar systems proving their worth against traditional tracked artillery. This shift in military strategy highlights the evolving nature of modern warfare and the increasing importance of mobility and rapid response in artillery operations.

KNDS to Establish Unit in Ukraine for Tank and Howitzer Maintenance, 3D Printing, and Artillery Shell Production

 French-German defense manufacturer KNDS, known for producing the Leopard tank and Caesar howitzer, is setting up a unit in Ukraine. This new subsidiary will collaborate with local companies to establish equipment maintenance, 3D printing of spare parts, and production of 155mm artillery shells.

Chairman Philippe Petitcolin announced the plan, which follows months of discussions, at a signing ceremony in Paris attended by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, French Armed Forces Minister Sebastien Lecornu, and KNDS France CEO Nicolas Chamussy.

“The signing marks the beginning of a new era of cooperation with Ukraine, as we will have a full subsidiary of KNDS involving both the German and French parts, allowing us to work closely with Ukrainian firms,” said Petitcolin. “We are in talks with many companies.”

Ukraine currently operates 386 pieces of KNDS equipment, including Leopard tanks and Caesar howitzers, with another 250 pieces on order. This creates a significant need for support, according to Petitcolin.

CEO Chamussy signed letters of intent with Ukraine’s ENMEK to set up a maintenance center for Caesar cannons and for 3D printing spare parts, and a contract with KZVV to transfer the production of 155mm shells.

The maintenance center will not require French technicians as Ukraine is already managing Caesar maintenance using parts shipped from France. “The Ukrainians know how to do this very well,” Chamussy said.

KNDS is currently producing one Caesar truck-mounted howitzer per week, with plans to increase production to six per month, Chamussy added. “If there’s sustained demand, we can increase the pace from one per week. We know how to do more, but it depends on the demands we receive,” Petitcolin said. The company has confirmed orders for 2024, with expectations for new contracts at the upcoming Eurosatory defense show starting June 17.

Chamussy mentioned that KNDS has the capacity to increase total artillery production to 12 cannons per month. Besides the Caesar, the company also manufactures the 105mm LG1 towed artillery piece.

Petitcolin noted that ammunition production with the Ukrainian partner will start within 12 months. The next step could involve manufacturing system modules or even complete systems in Ukraine.