Western Sanctions Fail to Diminish Russian Military-Industrial Output Amid Ukraine Conflict

 

Despite extensive sanctions and significant efforts, Western nations have been unable to effectively undermine Russia's military-industrial complex. This issue extends beyond electronic components, which continue to reach Russia through alternative and more costly routes despite export restrictions. The production of shells, missiles, armored vehicles, and drones has surged, enabling President Vladimir Putin to persist in his aggressive campaign against a neighboring country.

Experts from the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), Jack Watling and Gary Somerville, attribute the West's failure to halt Russia’s military operations to a lack of a unified approach during the initial sanction phase, among other factors.

A significant issue is Europe’s lack of infrastructure to enforce sanctions effectively, unlike the United States. Europe has historically treated sanctions more as a regulatory tool rather than economic warfare, aiming to shame rather than significantly disrupt harmful activities.

Despite the concerted efforts of Ukraine's international allies, Russia continues to obtain nitrocellulose from Germany, Turkey, and Taiwan. Additionally, it sources other essential raw materials for explosives globally, allowing rapid escalation in ammunition production. Since the war began, Russia has significantly increased its production of:

• 152-mm artillery shells: Increasing production by 5.3 times, from 250,000 per year to an expected 1.325 million in 2024. Around 800,000 122-mm shells are expected this year.
• Grad multiple launch rocket systems: Production will increase by 15.2 times, from 33,000 to over 500,000 shells. The Uragan system will see a 6.1 times increase, from 2,800 in 2023 to 17,000 this year.
• Kh-101 cruise missiles: Production has increased from 56 units in 2021 to a projected 420 units in 2023, aiming for 460 units.
• 9M723 Iskander missiles: Production has more than tripled, rising from 50 in reserve at the start of 2023 to 180 within a year.
• Iranian Shahed-136 drones: Production has surged 6.3 times, with collaborative production in Russia and Iran now exceeding 250 units monthly.

Estimating armored vehicle production in Russia is challenging. In 2024, Russia is projected to produce around 1,500 tanks and 3,000 other armored vehicles, with 85% being refurbished from existing stocks. The production of new armored vehicles is also increasing, with the Kurgan Machine-Building Plant's BMP-3 units production recorded at 100, 108, 120, and 135 units quarterly in 2023.

Russian manufacturers have adapted to losing access to Thales’ thermal imagers from France by substituting them with Chinese and Belarusian alternatives. These conversions require machine modifications, but significant imports from the United States, Europe, Taiwan, and other countries continue, including essential software updates.

The importation of dual-use goods critical to Russia's military-industrial strength has surged since President Putin met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in March 2023, according to a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Deliveries of helicopter parts, navigation systems, and precision machinery for weapons and aircraft components have jumped from a few thousand to nearly 30,000 monthly, enabling the Kremlin to expedite the production of armaments like armored vehicles, artillery, missiles, and drones. This boost has fortified their defenses during the Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2023, explained CSIS senior fellow Max Bergmann.

Pentagon Clarifies Sevastopol Beach Not Targeted in Ukrainian Attack on Crimea

 

Pentagon spokesman John F. Kirby clarified that the Ukrainian attack on Crimea on June 23 was not intended to target Sevastopol’s beach, where civilians were caught in the crossfire. According to BulgarianMilitary.com, Ukraine launched an assault on the Crimean Peninsula that day. The Russian Federation reported over 100 injuries and five fatalities, including two children, due to the incident.

While initial reports suggested that Ukraine used five ATACMS missiles and drones, there is no conclusive evidence that ATACMS missiles were actually deployed. Debris found at the scene appears to be from a 9M330 air defense missile of Soviet/Russian origin, but the authenticity of these images is unverified.

The Russian Defense Ministry claimed that air defense systems intercepted four US-supplied ATACMS missiles, but debris from a fifth missile caused civilian casualties. RIA Novosti's inquiries about the ammunition type used were deflected to Ukrainian authorities for confirmation.

Kirby noted that the Ukrainian military independently selects its targets. He explained that a Ukrainian missile aimed at a military site in Crimea was intercepted by a Russian missile, with shrapnel falling on a nearby beach and injuring civilians. Video evidence suggests multiple shrapnel pieces rather than a single fragment, which contrasts with Russian claims of cluster submunitions from an ATACMS missile.

US Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene suggested on social media that the civilian casualties were caused by Ukrainian cluster munitions, criticizing US military aid to Ukraine. She emphasized the importance of defending US borders instead of involving in foreign conflicts.

The Russian Ministry of Defense asserted that the responsibility for the attack lies with Washington, which supplied the weapons, and the Kyiv regime, from whose territory the strike was launched. They reported that four ATACMS missiles were intercepted by air defenses, but the fifth missile’s mid-air explosion caused civilian casualties.

The ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile System) is a US-developed surface-to-surface missile designed for precise deep-strike attacks against critical targets. It is launched from the M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) and the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS). The missile, approximately 13 feet long and weighing around 3,690 pounds, is capable of reaching speeds up to Mach 3 and has a range of up to 300 kilometers.

The ATACMS can be equipped with unitary warheads for precision strikes or cluster munitions for area denial and anti-personnel purposes. The Soviet/Russian S-300 series, specifically the S-300V system, is capable of intercepting such missiles, featuring advanced radar systems and interceptor missiles to engage various aerial threats.

Russia Intensifies Air Strikes on Ukrainian Airfields Amid Arrival of F-16 Fighter Jets

 

As Ukraine prepares to receive its first F-16 fighter jets, there has been an increase in Russian air strikes targeting Ukrainian airfields. These strikes appear to be Moscow’s attempt to disrupt Kyiv’s infrastructure needed to operate the F-16s.

Reports on social media suggest that on June 22, the Russian Black Sea Fleet attacked Ukrainian infrastructure, including the Vasilkov airfield near Kyiv, using sea-launched Kalibr cruise missiles. A video on Platform X (formerly Twitter) showed at least four missiles in flight. Photos on social media later depicted the alleged destruction caused by the attack. Pro-Russian military bloggers made these claims, but the Ukrainian Armed Forces have not commented.

Military analysts suggest the strategy aims to weaken the Ukrainian Air Force by destroying potential F-16 bases. If accurate, this would be the second strike on Vasilkov this month. Earlier reports indicated an oil depot at the airfield was targeted, causing a fire visible from space.

Previously, Russia also launched missile strikes on Starokostyantyniv in the Khmelnytsky area, another potential F-16 base. Russia has threatened to strike any Ukrainian airfield housing the F-16s, most of which are within the range of Russian missiles. Ukraine has announced plans to station some F-16s on NATO territory to safeguard them from attacks.

Ukraine is set to receive F-16s from Denmark in the coming weeks, with additional pledges from the Netherlands, Norway, and Belgium. Some donor countries have suggested using the jets for strikes inside Russia, heightening Kremlin concerns.

While facing relentless Russian air strikes, Ukraine has been targeting Russian air defenses in preparation for the F-16s’ arrival. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted Ukraine’s efforts to degrade Russian air defenses to enable effective use of manned aircraft. Recent Ukrainian actions have targeted key Russian air defense systems, including modern systems like the S-400, which were hit by Ukrainian drones.

The S-300/S-400 air defense systems and Su-57 fighters are vital for Russia to restrict Ukrainian air operations and support its offensive. Kyiv has strategically targeted these platforms as both sides engage in intense aerial strikes.

On June 23, Russian authorities reported that Ukrainian drone and missile attacks on Crimea resulted in six deaths and over 100 injuries. Russia blamed both the United States and Ukraine, claiming the attack involved US-provided ATACMS missiles. Russian air defenses reportedly shot down 33 Ukrainian drones over Bryansk, Smolensk, Lipetsk, and Tula.

Additionally, reports suggest Ukraine attacked a Russian warehouse used for launching and training with Iranian-made drones. Satellite images confirmed the destruction of facilities in the Krasnodar Territory on June 21.

Russia has also increased the use of guided bombs on Ukrainian territory, with recent attacks in Kharkiv resulting in multiple fatalities. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has called on allies to strengthen Ukraine’s air defenses, emphasizing the need for modern systems like Patriots, accelerated pilot training for F-16s, and extended weapon range.

Over the weekend, Russia targeted Ukraine’s power infrastructure, marking the ninth attack on energy installations in three months, according to Ukraine’s energy ministry.

U.S. Army to Deploy Over 1,000 Switchblade 600 Drones Under Replicator Program

 The U.S. Army plans to deploy more than 1,000 Switchblade 600 drones over the next year as part of the Replicator initiative. This program, spearheaded by the Pentagon, aims to field thousands of uncrewed systems. General James Mingus, the Army’s vice chief of staff, disclosed this quantity during a House Appropriations defense subcommittee hearing on June 21 at the Defense Innovation Unit’s headquarters in Mountain View, California.

Manufactured by AeroVironment, the Switchblade 600 loitering munition is among the initial systems the Defense Department will procure through the first tranche of the Replicator program. It is the only system officials have identified by name so far. Other systems include an unspecified fleet of maritime drones, uncrewed surface vehicles, and counter-drone systems.

Replicator, announced by Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks last August, has two main objectives. In the short term, the Pentagon aims to deploy large numbers of expendable drones to counter China. The larger goal is to establish a sustainable process for acquiring technology to meet the department’s urgent operational needs.

The Pentagon plans to allocate $1 billion to the Replicator effort during fiscal years 2024 and 2025, with funds sourced from prior year appropriations, a reprogramming request, a national security supplemental approved in August, and the department’s yet-to-be-approved FY-25 budget proposal.

Switchblade drones have seen significant use on battlefields in Russia, Syria, and Iraq. The Army initially intended to procure the system through its Low Altitude Stalking and Strike Ordnance program in smaller quantities. In October, the Army announced plans to purchase 100 Switchblade drones for testing and deployment within its units.

General Mingus highlighted the collaboration behind this innovation during the hearing, noting that the Switchblade was included as part of Replicator Tranche One and will now be scaled up to over 1,000 units in the coming year.

Deputy Defense Secretary Hicks announced last month that the department began fielding Replicator systems to Indo-Pacific Command in early May. However, the Pentagon has not disclosed the specific systems or quantities fielded.

“This demonstrates that warfighter-centric innovation is not only feasible but is also yielding tangible results,” Hicks stated. “As we deploy these systems, our comprehensive capability development process continues.”

US to Supply Taiwan with 1000 Armed Drones Amid Rising Tensions with China

 The United States has approved a $360 million sale of over 1,000 small armed drones to Taiwan, significantly enhancing Taiwan's asymmetric defense strategy against China. The U.S. Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) announced on June 18 that Taiwan will receive 720 Switchblade drones and related fire control systems valued at $60.2 million. Additionally, Taiwan will acquire up to 291 Altius 600M loitering munitions and associated components for $300 million.

This sale comes as Taiwan awaits previously ordered military equipment, including Abrams tanks, F-16 Vipers, and advanced munitions from Washington. Despite adhering to the 'One China' principle, the U.S. is legally obligated to provide Taiwan with defensive tools against Chinese aggression. This arms sale has drawn criticism from Beijing, which accuses the U.S. of turning Taiwan into a "powder keg."

The drone sale is crucial for Taiwan's asymmetric warfare strategy, which relies on unconventional weapons to deter a Chinese invasion. Taiwan's National Defense Report emphasizes increasing resilience and self-sufficiency, prioritizing domestic defense, and enhancing its "all-out defense" capabilities.

The U.S. Indo-Pacific Command's "Hellscape" strategy aims to deploy drones to distract China during a Taiwanese invasion, allowing U.S. forces time to respond. Admiral Samuel Paparo outlined this strategy, which involves flooding the Taiwan Strait with unmanned submarines, surface ships, and aerial drones to impede a Chinese invasion fleet.

Taiwan's recent interest in drones was likely influenced by their successful use in Ukraine, where U.S.-supplied Switchblade UAVs helped repel Russian forces. Taiwan has also developed its own drones, such as the Chien Hsiang loitering munitions, capable of targeting diverse radar systems deployed by China.

The Switchblade 300, known for its low-cost, lightweight, and precision-guided capabilities, can be deployed quickly from various platforms and has a range of 30 kilometers. Its unique abort function allows it to self-destruct if necessary, minimizing casualties.

The Altius-600M loitering munition, larger than the Switchblade 300, can be launched from land, air, or sea and features multiple seekers and warhead options. It boasts twice the loitering time and range of current loitering munitions and can operate in swarms, enabling a single operator to control multiple drones simultaneously.

Taiwan thanked the U.S. for the drone sale, marking the 15th arms deal between the two since 2021. Taiwan's Presidential Office spokesperson, Karen Kuo, emphasized the importance of strengthening self-defense and asymmetric warfare capabilities to uphold democracy and international order.

White House Prioritizes Air Defense Interceptors for Ukraine Amid Ongoing Conflict

 

The United States has moved Ukraine to the top of the list for receiving air defense interceptors, a vital weapon for Ukraine’s self-defense. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby announced this adjustment during a briefing, describing it as a “difficult but necessary” decision. In the short term, Patriot and NASAMS interceptors initially destined for other countries will be redirected to Ukraine.

Kirby mentioned that this would delay deliveries to other countries currently awaiting these interceptors. However, Ukraine is expected to receive hundreds of these air defense weapons by the end of summer, which should suffice for the next 16 months. After this period, the countries waiting for their interceptors will start receiving their orders.

Kirby clarified that these countries will still receive their ordered missiles, but the delivery will be delayed. He did not specify which countries would face delays but assured that Taiwan and Israel would not be affected.

Lockheed Martin, fully funded by the U.S. Army, is producing 550 PAC-3 Missile Segment Enhancement (MSE) missiles annually and reached a production rate of 500 per year in December 2023. Although the Army has not funded further increases, Lockheed has internally invested to produce 650 interceptors annually. In 2023, Lockheed signed six letters of approval with international customers.

Nineteen countries currently use the Raytheon-made Patriot system, and this customer base is expanding. Switzerland purchased five batteries and 75 missiles in November 2022, and Romania plans to buy more units. Additionally, at least two other European countries are close to announcing Patriot purchases, with Slovakia and Germany showing interest.

This decision marks one of the most significant measures the U.S. has taken to support Ukraine since the full-scale war with Russia began two years ago. Pentagon leaders have prioritized air defense for countries backing Kyiv, as evidenced by recent actions. U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin emphasized the importance of air defense during a June press conference at NATO headquarters in Brussels, following a meeting of countries coordinating support for Ukraine.

Reports indicated that the U.S. was sending another Patriot system to Ukraine, though neither Austin nor Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. CQ Brown confirmed this. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated in June that his country needs seven Patriot systems. Germany and the Netherlands have committed to sending Patriot systems, and other countries have pledged different air defense systems like NASAMS.

Austin noted that Ukraine needs various capabilities, not just Patriots, and the interceptors to support them. Despite their importance, air defense batteries and interceptors are in short supply. The U.S. and its allies have been sourcing extra weapons to support Ukraine amid drone and missile attacks. This recent decision highlights the tight supply chain for these systems, leading to a reordering rather than an expansion of capacity.

Tom Karako, an air defense expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, emphasized the need to expand inventory, noting that funds meant to increase capacity from the April national security supplemental haven’t been spent yet. This package includes around $48 billion for military aid to Ukraine, though the amount for air defense isn’t specified.

Kirby did not detail which countries would be affected by the reshuffle but assured that Washington would minimize delays. He acknowledged that each country’s circumstances would differ based on their orders and self-defense needs.

Ukraine Strikes Russian Su-34s: Drone Attack on Morozovsk Airfield 250km Behind Frontlines

 

On June 14, satellite images confirmed a successful drone strike by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on Morozovsk Airfield in Russia’s Rostov region, about 250 kilometers from the frontlines. The attack, which occurred on June 13, highlights the airfield's crucial role in supporting Russian Air Force operations in Ukraine, particularly as a base for Su-34 strike fighters.

The extent of the damage remains uncertain, but initial reports suggest no aircraft were destroyed. The vulnerability of Russian airbases to drone strikes is a growing concern, indicating potential for more frequent attacks due to limited air defense capabilities.

Ukraine’s ability to target key Russian sites has been significantly bolstered by American ATACMS ballistic missiles and support from Western specialists, NATO satellite networks, and air surveillance data. In mid-May, ATACMS missiles were used to strike Russia’s Belbek Air Base in Crimea, destroying two MiG-31 interceptors. Additionally, a drone attack targeted a Voronezh-DM radar system in Armavir, a critical component of Russia’s defense against Western missile threats.

In response, the U.S. has eased restrictions on Ukrainian operations, allowing deeper strikes within Russia using American weaponry. Consequently, Russia deployed an S-500 system in June to enhance its missile defense capabilities.

Ukraine's increased focus on drone and missile strikes comes amid ground setbacks and heavy casualties, allowing the Russian Army to gain territory since late 2022. The drone strike on Morozovsk Airport, targeting Su-34s, seems to be retaliation for Russian airstrikes on June 12, which hit a Ukrainian command post in the Northern Military District zone using high-explosive aviation bombs with precision modules.

On June 13, Russian media shared images of a pontoon crossing over the Pecheneg Dam in Kharkiv Oblast, destroyed by a Su-34 strike using a Kh-38MLE missile. The attack submerged several sections of the crossing, with footage capturing two Ukrainian military trucks approaching just before the missile hit.

The bridge in Stari Saltov across the Seversky Donets has been a repeated target, initially destroyed early in the conflict and rebuilt by Ukrainian engineers. This continued targeting underscores the strategic importance of these crossings in the ongoing conflict.

On February 21, 2022, Russia claimed a border facility attack by Ukrainian forces, which Ukraine denied as false flags. That same day, Russia recognized the self-proclaimed areas of DPR and LPR, and subsequently, Putin sent military forces into these regions. This action escalated on February 24, 2022, with Putin launching a full-scale assault on Ukraine, labeled as a "special military operation" by Russia.

Despite rumors, the U.S. may not provide Ukraine with ATACMS missiles with a 300km range, maintaining the focus on current support measures.

Russia Tests New 'Intercept' Anti-Drone Cartridges to Counter Ukraine's Kamikaze UAVs

 In an effort to enhance its defense against small unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), Russia has developed specialized anti-drone cartridges. The initial batches of these cartridges have already been sent to forces involved in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. These anti-drone cartridges were developed by Closed Joint Stock Company Tekhkrim to counter the growing threat posed by drones in warfare.

Oleg Kuzmenko, director of CJSC Tekhkrim, informed Izvestia that the first batches, named 12/70 "Intercept" and 12/76 KS, have been deployed to Russian forces engaged in what Moscow refers to as a "Special Military Operation" in Ukraine. These cartridges are currently undergoing extensive testing in the conflict zone and are designed for use with 12-gauge smoothbore guns, such as the "Saiga-12," "Vepr-12," and MP-155, among other single-barrel and double-barrel models.

Kuzmenko explained that the Intercept cartridge features six lead segments connected by Kevlar thread. When fired, the structure opens up 15 to 20 meters from the muzzle, creating a destruction field with a diameter of up to one meter. This design is based on knitted buckshot traditionally used in hunting but adapted to ensure a continuous destruction field, minimizing gaps that could allow drones to escape unharmed.

The 12/76 KS cartridge, another innovative design, builds on the "Fat Goose" hunting cartridge, incorporating the renowned Eley ring for improved accuracy and an extended range of up to 75 meters. Loaded with a No 3 shot, which is highly effective against drones, the 12/76 KS achieves a balance between shot size and weight, maximizing impact while maintaining accuracy. However, Kuzmenko noted that the effectiveness of these cartridges at longer ranges depends on factors such as the shooter's skill and experience.

Ongoing testing aims to further refine the cartridge design. "We tested it on FPV drones," Kuzmenko said. "The results were good. Now we are waiting for practical application results to determine its effectiveness and identify any necessary improvements."

Russia has been developing various anti-drone technologies as drones have become cost-effective assets on the battlefield, capable of performing diverse tasks. One such innovation is the modified Joker-10 FPV drone, equipped to intercept enemy UAVs by releasing decoy thermal targets filled with explosives and projectiles. This modified drone can also ram enemy drones as a last resort.

Additionally, Russia is mass-producing the "Gran" electronic intelligence complex, which monitors drone frequencies and relays information to electronic warfare units, representing just a fraction of the new equipment being tested to combat enemy drones.

The introduction of new cartridges offers significant advantages on the battlefield. Russian experts believe these cartridges will effectively engage small drones with minimal training required for frontline fighters. Colonel Alexander Perendzhiev of the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics praised the development, highlighting its cost-effectiveness and immediate applicability, which enhances fighter survival rates. He also noted that these cartridges could be useful for civilians in border areas where lightweight drones might target populations and infrastructure.

In rural areas, where many people own guns and know how to use them, such ammunition could help establish local defenses. The actual battlefield effectiveness of these new cartridges remains to be seen, but this development underscores Russia's ongoing efforts to innovate and devise new strategies to neutralize the drone threat.

F-35 Jets Stationed in Norway's Mountain Hangars for Defense Against UAV Attacks Post Su-57 Incident

 Recently, photos emerged online showing underground shelters at Norway’s Bardufoss Air Force Base, captured during a Norwegian Air Force exercise. These images featured fifth-generation F-35A Lightning II fighter jets practicing in mountain-based shelters. Norway, a NATO member, has F-35 aircraft certified to carry tactical nuclear weapons, making these underground facilities highly secure against missile and drone attacks.

Since joining NATO, Norway and the Nordic region have experienced almost continuous military exercises, underscoring the ongoing militarization of Scandinavia amid escalating threats of potential Arctic conflicts.

Bardufoss, Norway’s oldest airbase, has a rich history dating back to World War II. Initially used by the Allies, it was later taken over by German forces who launched fighter, bomber, and reconnaissance missions from the base. Today, Bardufoss, located in Målselv Municipality, Troms og Finnmark county, is a strategic military airbase operated by the Royal Norwegian Air Force, critical due to its proximity to the Arctic.

The airbase features a single runway, 10/28, stretching 2,443 meters (8,015 feet), accommodating various military aircraft, including fighter jets, transport planes, and helicopters. Bardufoss supports a wide array of offensive and defensive operations.

The 139th Air Wing, stationed at Bardufoss, includes the 337 Squadron with NH90 helicopters and the 339 Squadron operating Bell 412 helicopters. These units are vital for search and rescue missions, anti-submarine warfare, and troop transport. Additionally, the base hosts a detachment from the Norwegian Army’s Aviation Battalion, using Bell 412 helicopters for reconnaissance and medical evacuation, enhancing the base's operational capabilities.

Equipped with advanced radar and communication systems, Bardufoss ensures robust surveillance and coordination, essential for monitoring airspace and supporting NATO operations. Norway is a key NATO member, and these capabilities reinforce the alliance's northern defense posture.

The rising tensions near Russia’s northern borders have prompted NATO to conduct exercises in the region, reflecting concerns over the perceived threat from Russia. Norway has ordered 52 F-35A Lightning II aircraft from Lockheed Martin to modernize its air force, replacing its aging F-16 fleet. The F-35A, a fifth-generation multirole fighter, features advanced avionics, including the AN/APG-81 AESA radar, Distributed Aperture System (DAS), and Electro-Optical Targeting System (EOTS), providing superior situational awareness and targeting capabilities.

The F-35A is powered by a single Pratt & Whitney F135-PW-100 turbofan engine, delivering maximum thrust of approximately 43,000 pounds with an afterburner, enabling speeds up to Mach 1.6. The aircraft's internal weapons bay can house up to four air-to-air missiles or two air-to-ground munitions and two air-to-air missiles, with external hardpoints for additional ordnance. Typical armaments include AIM-120 AMRAAM, AIM-9X Sidewinder missiles, and precision-guided bombs like the GBU-31 JDAM.

In the context of recent tensions, the deployment of F-35A fighters in Norway's underground shelters at Bardufoss Air Force Base demonstrates NATO's strategic defensive measures. The increased militarization of Scandinavia and the Arctic region highlights the ongoing preparation against potential UAV and missile threats, reinforcing the region's defense infrastructure.

Russia Re-Deploys Tu-22M3 Bomber for Strikes on Ukraine: Key Attack After April Incident

 

The Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) redeployed a Tu-22M3 bomber for the first time on the night of June 13-14 following an unprecedented incident in April. According to Ukrainian media, Russian forces launched an aerial strike on Ukraine, primarily targeting the western regions with ballistic missiles, drones, and Kh-101/Kh-55 missiles fired from at least five strategic bombers.

Unverified reports claimed that Russia deployed at least four Tu-22M3 bombers from the Dyagilevo airfield near Ryazan, marking their first approach within the range of Ukrainian air defense since an April shootdown. 

In April, Ukrainian forces successfully downed a Tupolev Tu-22M Backfire bomber, the first such loss for the Russian bomber fleet. This incident followed a Russian attack on Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Air Force Commander Mykola Oleshchuk confirmed the destruction of the Tu-22M3, which carries Kh-22 cruise missiles used against Ukrainian cities. The Russian aircraft crashed in the Krasnogvardeysky District of Stavropol Krai, with videos of the crash circulating on social media. Russia attributed the crash to a technical error, while Ukraine claimed responsibility for downing the aircraft and stated that Russia had subsequently withdrawn the bombers.

The recent attack primarily focused on Starokostyantyniv in the Khmelnytsky area, home to a significant Ukrainian air base. This base, previously targeted by Russia, reportedly houses Ukraine’s Storm Shadow missile carriers, the Su-24MR fighter jets. Ukrainian Air Force (UAF) spokesperson Illya Yevlash declined to comment on the damage, emphasizing that revealing such information could aid the enemy. He noted a new Russian strategy combining airstrikes with regrouping and altering missile and drone movements.

Yevlash described this tactic as involving combined strikes using UAVs from various directions along with different types of missiles, adjusting warhead sizes based on the mission. For example, cruise missiles recently targeted western Ukraine, reaching Kolomyia before turning back towards Starokostiantyniv, demonstrating maneuvers with altitude changes. Each attack follows a unique pattern.

In response to continued Russian attacks, President Vladimir Putin offered a ceasefire on June 14 if Ukraine agreed to withdraw its forces from the four annexed regions and abandon its NATO aspirations. Putin stated that Moscow would "immediately" declare a ceasefire and commence negotiations if Kyiv complied. This proposal follows the G7 meeting in Italy and precedes a summit in Switzerland (excluding Russia) to discuss peace in Ukraine. Despite the annexation of four Ukrainian regions in the fall of 2022, Kyiv’s forces have maintained their positions.

Putin emphasized that his proposal aimed at a “final resolution” of the conflict rather than a temporary freeze, indicating the Kremlin’s readiness for immediate negotiations. However, Kyiv’s ongoing demand for the withdrawal of Russian forces and NATO membership remains unchanged, receiving no immediate response to Russia’s suggestion.

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022, initially targeting Kyiv but later focusing on southern and eastern regions after failing to capture the capital.

US Admiral Reveals “Hellscape” Drone Warfare Strategy to Counter China’s Taiwan Invasion Plan

 

The United States is developing a strategy to deploy a vast array of drones to counter a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan. This plan, referred to as the "Hellscape" strategy, aims to use drones to overwhelm and distract Chinese forces, buying crucial time for US and allied forces to mount a full-scale response.

Admiral Samuel Paparo, the commander of US Indo-Pacific Command, outlined this approach at the International Institute for Strategic Studies’ Shangri-La Dialogue Summit. The strategy involves deploying thousands of unmanned submarines, surface ships, and aerial drones as soon as China’s invasion fleet begins crossing the 100-mile Taiwan Strait.

China recently conducted military drills following the inauguration of Taiwan’s new president, intensifying its calls for reunification with Taiwan. US President Joe Biden has hinted at military support for Taiwan in the event of an invasion, which could escalate into a larger US-China conflict involving Washington's regional allies. This makes it essential for the US to develop effective countermeasures against Chinese forces in the Taiwan Strait.

The "Hellscape" strategy heavily relies on autonomous systems, a tactic influenced by the recent war in Ukraine. In Ukraine, drones have been used to launch strikes on control centers, refineries, airfields, and ships, demonstrating that modern air defenses are not impenetrable. This has reshaped how militaries approach modern warfare, with a focus on cost-effective, reusable, and disposable drone technology.

General Kenneth Wilsbach, Commander of the Pacific Air Forces, initially proposed using "attritable" unmanned aircraft against China instead of high-end stealth fighters like the F-35s or F-22s. These lower-cost, disposable drones would serve as decoys, gradually wearing down Chinese defenses by creating numerous targets.

The Pentagon is actively working on this drone warfare strategy, planning to spend $1 billion on the Replicator program this fiscal year. This program aims to rapidly scale and deploy thousands of autonomous systems within the next 18 to 24 months, utilizing AI, robotics, and commercial technology. The Pentagon is also collaborating with defense partners to develop and procure these critical systems.

Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks emphasized the need to counter China’s mass with a mass of drones that are more challenging to target. The US Navy is also working on developing swarming drones, including underwater drones, to counter the numerical superiority of the Chinese PLA Navy in the Indo-Pacific region.

Admiral Paparo highlighted the strategic advantage of US unmanned capabilities, stating that these systems would amplify US advantages in the region. He noted that recent Chinese military drills appeared to be rehearsals for a Taiwan invasion, which the US observed and learned from.

In response to these developments, China has expressed dissatisfaction. The state-owned Global Times criticized the US strategy, suggesting it was a desperate attempt to maintain its dominance and incite Taiwan’s independence efforts.

Ukraine Strikes Deep Inside Russia: Damages Advanced Su-57 Fighter Jet

Ukraine has successfully targeted and damaged a highly prized Russian Su-57 fighter jet stationed deep within Russian territory, according to a Sunday report from Ukraine's main intelligence directorate (GUR).

The attack struck the Akhtubinsk airfield in the Astrakhan region, about 360 miles from the front lines. Satellite imagery provided by Ukrainian military intelligence shows the Su-57 intact on June 7 and damaged on June 8.

The Su-57 is described by Ukrainian intelligence as Russia's "most modern fighter," capable of deploying Kh-59 and Kh-69 missiles. A pro-Kremlin Telegram channel, Fighterbomber, which often confirms Russian military losses, reported shrapnel damage to the aircraft, with its reparability still undetermined.

Unlike Russia's more commonly deployed Su-25 and Su-35 aircraft, the fifth-generation Su-57 has seen limited use since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. This strike marks the first instance of a Su-57 being damaged in combat, according to Ukrainian military intelligence.

Military correspondent David Axe noted in Forbes that if the damage is confirmed, this would be only the second stealth aircraft lost in combat since the US Air Force first deployed the Lockheed Martin F-117. The first instance was in 1999 when a Serbian air defense battery shot down an F-117 during the Kosovo war.

Ukraine has recently increased the range of its strikes into Russian territory. On Saturday, a video surfaced showing a Ukrainian long-range attack drone targeting Mozdok air base in Russia's North Ossetia region, about 450 miles from the front line. Although it is unclear if the drone caused any military damage, the base houses significant assets, including Tu-22M bombers, Su-24M/MR strike aircraft, and military helicopters.

Retired Australian army general Mick Ryan wrote earlier this year that such deep strikes force Russia to reassess and redeploy its air defense resources. David Axe added that Ukraine's escalating drone campaign has stretched Russia's air defenses thin, unable to protect all critical assets.

The last major Ukrainian attack on Russian warplanes was on May 17, when Ukraine hit Balbek Airfield in occupied Crimea, damaging a Su-27 and two MiG-31s.

US General Defends Abrams Tanks Amid Ukrainian Criticisms, Highlights Future Upgrades

 In response to Ukrainian military complaints about the performance of US-supplied Abrams tanks, a retired US general has strongly defended the tanks, acknowledging their heavy maintenance but rejecting the criticisms as exaggerated. Ukrainian tank crews recently raised concerns about the Abrams tanks, citing issues such as armor inadequacy and engine problems, deeming them unsuitable for the combat conditions in Ukraine.

Ukrainian authorities have expressed dissatisfaction, pointing out the tanks' inability to withstand the terrain and conditions of the conflict zone. Crews reported various grievances, including armor that fails to meet modern standards, engine malfunctions, and electronics vulnerabilities due to condensation from rain or fog. Additionally, they noted that despite firing multiple rounds, some targets remained intact, questioning the tanks' combat effectiveness.

Retired US General Mark Hertling refuted these claims in an interview with CNN. Hertling, with three decades of service in Europe, dismissed the criticisms as exaggerated. He stated that the Abrams tanks were designed for a NATO environment and that he did not encounter the issues described by the Ukrainian crews during his tenure. He labeled the complaints about condensation, armor, and obstacle clearance as "bullshit" and attributed any perceived shortcomings to the crews' failure to select the right weapon systems and maintain the tanks properly.

Hertling emphasized that mechanical breakdowns are typical in tank operations and that disgruntled crew members might exaggerate issues. Despite knowing the maintenance demands, Ukraine had requested the Abrams tanks for military support.

Lessons from Ukraine for Future Abrams Tanks The deployment of Abrams tanks, specifically the M1A1 models, was intended to strengthen Ukraine's resistance against Russian forces. However, battlefield experiences have challenged their previously invincible reputation. After persistent appeals, the US agreed in January 2023 to send 31 Abrams tanks to Ukraine. By October 2023, all tanks had arrived, raising hopes for a strategic advantage.

Nevertheless, these tanks faced significant challenges, particularly from Russian drones, with at least five Abrams tanks reportedly destroyed. Recent images show Abrams tanks in Ukraine outfitted with anti-drone armor screens, though their effectiveness remains uncertain.

In response to the lessons learned from the conflict in Ukraine, the US military is accelerating efforts to incorporate these insights into the development of the next-generation Abrams tank. Brigadier General Geoffrey Norman, director of the Next-Generation Combat Vehicle Cross-Functional Team, acknowledged the Abrams' limitations against modern threats such as anti-tank missiles and drones. While the tank offers excellent protection against direct fire, it is vulnerable to top-attack threats.

Norman highlighted the Abrams' effectiveness in offensive maneuvers, emphasizing its mobility and firepower. However, he cautioned against stationary use, which increases vulnerability. To address these challenges, Army leaders are reevaluating formation options to distribute capabilities and protect soldiers.

In September 2023, following observations from the Ukrainian conflict, the US Army announced a shift in its tank modernization strategy. Instead of proceeding with the planned moderate upgrade (SEPv4), the Army opted for a more ambitious upgrade, the M1E3 Abrams, to be known as the M1A3 upon deployment. The new design aims for a lighter tank with enhanced survivability and a reduced logistical footprint. Details on the M1A3 are still being refined, with General Dynamics Land Systems (GDLS) serving as the prime contractor.

US Air Force Eyes Anti-Drone Barriers to Protect F-15 Strike Eagles

 In response to the growing threat posed by small drones, Seymour Johnson Air Force Base in North Carolina is considering installing anti-drone barriers to safeguard its F-15E Strike Eagles. The US Air Force’s 4th Contracting Squadron has issued a Request for Information (RFI) to explore options for a "Counter Small Unmanned Aerial System Barrier," although the government has not yet committed to the project.

The move highlights the increasing danger that small unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) pose to military personnel and installations both abroad and in the US. Despite the F-15E's proven combat prowess, these aircraft remain vulnerable to drone attacks while stationed at their home bases.

The RFI follows a recent incident in Germany where a Eurofighter Typhoon collided with a drone, causing damage to the aircraft. Similar incidents have been reported in the US, though no specific drone incidents at Seymour Johnson have been disclosed.

Former CENTCOM Commander Kenneth McKenzie has underscored the threat posed by small, inexpensive drones, which can be easily acquired and used for disruptive purposes. The US military has been working with Counter-Unmanned Aircraft Systems (C-UAS) companies to develop technologies to detect and neutralize unauthorized drones.

The proposed anti-drone barriers would need to be robust enough to stop drones weighing up to 55 pounds and traveling at speeds of up to 125 mph. The barriers must also be lightweight, flame retardant, and able to be quickly opened and closed. The initiative reflects ongoing efforts to enhance defense measures at US air bases in light of recent global conflicts, including the war in Ukraine, where drones have been used to carry out significant attacks on airfields.

US Military Academy Report Reveals Three Strategies to Counter Kamikaze Drones

 The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has highlighted the impact of inexpensive drones causing significant damage to advanced, costly targets. This insight, combined with the effectiveness of Hamas's drone attack on Israel on October 7, has spurred the anti-drone industry to innovate technologies to combat drone threats on the battlefield.

Recently, Russia has deployed new AI-powered anti-drone systems, Abzats and Gyurza, in Ukraine. Abzats, a mobile jamming platform, uses AI to autonomously execute electronic warfare tasks, jamming frequencies utilized by UAVs. Similarly, Gyurza's AI selectively jams frequencies used by Ukrainian drones, neutralizing them. Oleg Zhukov, CEO of Geran, a Russian research company, affirmed the effectiveness of AI in electronic warfare for automatically suppressing enemy drones.

Ukraine, meanwhile, is receiving various counter-drone systems from the U.S., such as counter-drone gun trucks and laser-guided rockets. Additionally, Ukraine has acquired several CORTEX Typhon systems from Norway's Kongsberg, which detect drones via radar and shoot them down with missiles. Ukraine has also developed its own EW systems like the Brave1 and the L3Harris VAMPIRE, a laser-guided missile launcher used effectively against Iranian-produced Shahed drones.

Israel is a key player in the counter-drone sector with systems like Rafael's Drone Dome and Elbit's ReDrone, which detect drones and emit jamming signals to disrupt their operation. These systems are used by various countries to protect critical infrastructure and are considered highly effective.

The counter-drone market is growing rapidly, projected to reach $14.6 billion by 2031 from $1.3 billion in 2021, driven by key players like Lockheed Martin, Dedrone, and Raytheon Technologies. However, the cost imbalance between cheap drones and expensive countermeasures poses a significant challenge. Experts argue that the industry has yet to develop universally applicable, scalable solutions.

Brett Velicovich, CEO of Drone Experts, noted the vast number of counter-drone technologies, but no single solution guarantees complete protection against drones. The real challenge lies in creating an affordable, effective system adaptable to various situations.

There are four main categories of counter-drone systems: Tracking, Jamming, Kinetic, and Hybrid/Cyber approaches. Tracking and jamming systems locate and disrupt drone signals, while kinetic systems destroy drones with projectiles. However, these systems' effectiveness varies based on location and situation, especially against multiple drone attacks.

As drone technology advances, new vulnerabilities in sensors and radar coverage are exploited. Consequently, there is growing emphasis on building impenetrable shelters like bunkers against drone attacks.

A report from the "Modern War Institute" at the US Military Academy outlines three primary defense strategies against one-way attack drones: shooting them down, using electronic interference, or seeking shelter. Despite expensive technologies, simple measures like sandbags and concrete remain effective. Bunkers, combined with radars and concrete T-walls, provide essential protection, although overhead coverage is crucial against precise attacks.

In conclusion, counter-drone operations require a multi-layered defense combining active and passive measures. A single, simple solution is not feasible, and the ongoing conflict will continue to see evolving tactics between drones and counter-drone technologies.