U.K. Defense Chief Urges U.S. To Maintain Tight NATO Ties

LONDON and WASHINGTON - Just before the Pentagon unveiled a new military strategy that emphasizes a shift in focus toward the Asia-Pacific region, Britain's Defense Secretary Phillip Hammond urged the U.S. government to maintain the strength of its commitment to the NATO alliance.

Speaking Jan. 5 in Washington on his first visit to the United States since taking over for Liam Fox in October, Hammond said that "however pressing the growing importance of the Asia-Pacific region is to the United States, the alliance between the U.S. and the countries of Europe is, and will remain, of vital interest to both continents."

Hammond said the growth in power and influence of other regions is a reason to strengthen the NATO alliance rather than weaken it.

The speech to an audience at the Atlantic Council, an organization formed to promote trans-Atlantic cooperation, was delivered right before U.S. President Barack Obama took the stage in the Pentagon briefing room to announce a new strategy that envisions a smaller military with resources increasingly devoted to the Pacific.

The eight-page strategy document says the United States remains committed to "bolstering the strength and vitality of NATO," but it also acknowledges that the strategic landscape in Europe has changed since NATO was first created and therefore the U.S. military posture must also evolve.

"Most European countries are now producers of security rather than consumers of it," the document says. "Combined with the drawdown in Iraq and Afghanistan, this has created a strategic opportunity to rebalance the U.S. military investment in Europe, moving from a focus on current conflicts toward a focus on future capabilities."

Hammond said he planned to meet with his U.S. counterpart, Leon Panetta, later that afternoon to discuss the new defense posture and the impact of the U.S. military spending cuts on trans-Atlantic relations.

The strategy did not say how many U.S. troops could leave Europe, but some reports indicate 4,000 more may withdraw.

"Of course reductions in U.S. troop numbers are not going to be welcomed by European allies, but I think we all understand the budget pressure the United States, like all of us, is under," Hammond said.

NATO members also recognize the world is changing and that the United States may have to shift its strategic focus, he said.

"I think Europe needs to respond in a mature way, not in a histrionic way," he said.

The release of the strategy document did not include new programmatic details, including any information on potential changes to the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, the Pentagon's largest and most expensive weapon program. The United Kingdom plans to buy the naval variant of the aircraft.

Hammond said he is particularly concerned with what a delay to the program's schedule or a reduction to the U.S. buy could do to the aircraft's unit cost and availability.

"We're already under some pressure from public opinion in the United Kingdom that we're going to have built and launched [aircraft] carriers some years before we have the aircraft to fly off them," he said.

His speech served to remind the United States of the importance of NATO as it makes its strategic transition toward Asia.

At the same time, Hammond wanted to address comments made by Panetta and former U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates, who have both been critical of the unbalanced resources some European countries provide NATO and its operations.

Although Afghanistan and Libya had shown what the alliance was capable of, the contributions of many alliance members fell short "in terms of capability, the balance of contributions and in terms of the will to deploy."

In June, Gates said NATO had become a two-tiered alliance with some members shouldering the costs and participating in combat missions, while others enjoy the benefits of NATO membership without footing the bill or participating in difficult operations.

Despite these shortcomings, Hammond said people need to be realistic.

"Without strong economies and stable public finances, it is impossible to build and sustain in the long term the military capability required to project power and maintain defense," he said. "That is why today the debt crisis should probably be regarded as the greatest strategic threat to our nations."

With defense budgets continuing to be cut by NATO members, he warned the situation would get worse before it got better.

"Across the alliance, aggregate defense expenditure is certain to fall in the short term and, at best, recover slowly in the medium term," Hammond said.

Part of the answer to NATO's capability woes in a time of austerity lies in a series of capacity enhancing measures. He recommended a thorough assessment of NATO's capabilities and then stacking these against its current ambitions.

Such an analysis would provide the basis for choices regarding "greater pooling and sharing of capabilities; mission, role and geographic specialization; greater sharing of technology; cooperation on logistics; alignment of research-and-development programs, and more collaborative training."

The strategy document released by the Pentagon hinted at a similar approach.

"In this resource-constrained era, we will also work with NATO allies to develop a 'Smart Defense' approach to pool, share, and specialize capabilities as needed to meet 21st century challenges," it says.

Without more money, Hammond said the challenge was to maximize existing NATO capability.

"Prioritizing ruthlessly, specializing aggressively and collaborating unsentimentally. ... With budgets so tight, allies need to revisit approaches and ideas that might previously have seemed politically unacceptable," said Hammond.

Hammond also argued for greater cooperation with allies outside of NATO, naming Sweden, Australia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Japan and South Korea.

However, he said he is opposed to growing the alliance and rejected the idea that the European Union should be a member.

South Korea, U.S. To Boost Guard Against North

SEOUL, South Korea - South Korea and the United States will soon sign a new plan on countering any North Korean attacks, Seoul said Jan. 4 amid international wariness over the abrupt leadership transition in Pyongyang.

"We believe there remains a possibility of provocations by the North during the power succession to Kim Jong Un," deputy defense minister Lim Kwan Bin told reporters.

The ministry said the South Korean military, in response to any attack, would ensure "the enemy threat, the source of the provocation and its supporting forces are completely removed".

The North has hailed Kim as "great successor" and appointed him military chief since his father and longtime leader Kim Jong Il died suddenly on Dec. 17.

Hopes that cross-border tensions might ease have not so far materialized, and some analysts believe the untested son, aged in his late 20s, may try to bolster his credentials by staging a limited border incident.

The new regime has already vowed retaliation against Seoul for alleged disrespect during the mourning period for Kim and vowed never to deal with its current conservative government.

More than 100,000 people rallied Jan. 3 in Pyongyang in support of Kim Jong Un, the North's state media reported. It also released footage of his visit Jan. 1 to an armored division.

The South's defense ministry, in a policy document for 2012, said the allies would sign the joint counter-provocation plan this month, as agreed last October.

U.S. and South Korean troops already hold regular annual joint exercises.

"Once the joint operational (counter-provocation) plan is signed, we will engage in more exercises that will help us execute it," Lim said. "It will specify how such exercises should be held."

The two Koreas have remained technically at war since their 1950-53 conflict ended only with a ceasefire. The United States has based troops in the South ever since and now has 28,500 in the country.

Cross-border tensions have been high since the South accused the North of torpedoing a warship with the loss of 46 lives in March 2010.

Pyongyang denied involvement but eight months later shelled an island near the tense Yellow Sea border and killed four South Koreans.

South Korea has since strengthened troops and weaponry on its "frontline" islands.

In Washington, the State Department said Jan. 3 that the North's stated refusal to engage with South Korea bodes ill for efforts to revive six-party talks on Pyongyang's nuclear disarmament.

"That's not going to be conducive to getting back to the table," said spokeswoman Victoria Nuland.

The North said last week it would never have dealings "with the Lee Myung Bak group of traitors", in a reference to the South's president.

Nuland said the North should improve ties with the South and show its commitment to denuclearization before the six-party talks can resume.

The talks - chaired by China and involving the two Koreas, the United States, Japan and Russia - have been at a standstill since the last round in December 2008.

Helsinki OKs Patriot Missile Shipment to S. Korea

HELSINKI - Sixty-nine Patriot missiles impounded in Finland after being found on a merchant vessel in mid-December were headed for South Korea, the Finnish government said Jan. 4, granting their transit through Finnish territory.

"The missiles in question had been sold to the Republic of Korea by Germany," the government said in a statement, adding that it had granted a license to Seoul's "Defense Acquisition Program Administration to transit through Finnish territory 69 Patriot missiles."

The surface-to-air missiles, produced by U.S. firm Raytheon, were discovered on December 15 aboard the British-registered Thor Liberty docked in the southeastern Finnish port of Kotka.

Confusion initially surrounded the shipment.

Finnish police said the goods were bound for China but did not have the necessary authorization to pass through Finland, while a German defense ministry spokesman said the missiles came from the German military and were destined for South Korea.

The spokesman said it was a "legal sale on the basis of an accord between two states at the government level" and that export authorizations were in order.

However a senior Finnish defense ministry official said Finland had not received any transit license application for the missiles from Germany.

A joint team of Finnish customs and police officials removed and impounded the missiles during an investigation for suspected illegal export of defense material.

The vessel's Ukrainian captain and first mate were also detained for questioning and later slapped with a travel ban which is still in effect.

Last week the customs service said it planned to widen the investigation.

"Next week ... we will want to hear more suspects or persons of interest in the case. It is possible there may be others of interest," the head of the Finnish customs anti-crime unit, Petri Lounatmaa, told AFP.

Finnish transport safety officials have cleared the Thor Liberty to leave Finland, but the vessel has remained in port due to the travel ban imposed on its first officers, and the removal of its cargo.

Finland to Widen Missile Shipment Inquiry: Customs

HELSINKI - Finland wants to widen an inquiry into the illegal transit of 69 Patriot missiles through its territory aboard a regular merchant vessel, Finnish customs said Dec. 30.

Two Ukrainians - the ship's captain and the first mate - remained in Finland and were subject to a travel ban during the ongoing investigation.

"Next week ... we will want to hear more suspects or persons of interest in the case. It is possible there may be others of interest," the head of the Finnish customs anti-crime unit, Petri Lounatmaa, told AFP.

The surface-to-air missiles, produced by U.S. firm Raytheon, were discovered last week on the British-registered Thor Liberty docked in the southeastern Finnish port of Kotka and bound for the Chinese port city of Shanghai, according to Finnish police. Finnish customs are investigating the case as one of illegal export of defense material.

Lounatmaa said customs and police investigators had "been in contact with several countries" and the information gathered would help them "focus ... investigations in the right direction."

He declined to provide any details on the nature of the information received, noting only that some of it had come in the form of intelligence briefs.

More official information would be needed as evidence if the case goes to criminal proceedings, he said.

Last week, a German defense ministry spokesman said the missiles came from the German military and were destined for South Korea, not China. He said it was a "legal sale on the basis of an accord between two states at the government level" and that export authorizations were in order.

However, a senior Finnish defense ministry official said Finland had not received any transit license application for the missiles from Germany.

On Dec. 26, Finnish transport safety officials cleared the Thor Liberty to leave Finland, after the missiles and most of the cargo of 150 tons of explosives had been unloaded from the vessel.

However, the vessel remained grounded by the travel ban on its first officers.

Finland: Missile Ship Free to Depart Port

HELSINKI - Finland has removed a cargo of 69 Patriot missiles found aboard a merchant ship that docked in the country and allowed the vessel to leave, transport safety officials said Dec. 26.

Thor Liberty was detained Dec. 15 in Kotka, southeast Finland, and was later found to be carrying 150 tons of explosive material, as well as the surface-to-air Patriot missiles and missile propellant charges.

"A Trafi check on 26.12.2011 has revealed that the improperly loaded explosive material has been offloaded from the vessel, with the exception of two properly loaded containers, and the detention order has been lifted," the Finnish Transport Safety Authority Trafi said in a statement.

However Trafi noted that the ship was still unable to continue on its journey because Finnish customs had placed the Ukrainian captain and first mate under a travel ban pending an investigation into the missiles.

Trafi added that customs had also impounded the explosives still on board the ship in two containers.

The missiles, discovered Dec. 21 aboard the British-registered ship, were bound for the Chinese port city of Shanghai, according to Finnish police. Finnish customs are investigating the case as one of illegal export of defense material.

A German defense ministry spokesman said the Patriot missiles, produced by Raytheon, came from the German military and were destined for South Korea.

He said it was a "legal sale on the basis of an accord between two states at the government level." He said the transaction had received an official export authorization and was reported to customs authorities.

However Finland said Dec. 23 it had not received the paperwork required from Germany.

Kim Jong-Il's Son Hailed as 'Supreme Commander'

SEOUL - North Korea's ruling party hailed the son of late leader Kim Jong-Il as "supreme commander" of the military on Dec. 24 in the latest sign that the untested successor is tightening his grip on power.

Experts said the move indicated that Pyongyang would maintain its Songun (military-first) policy, blamed for the deaths of thousands of people to starvation as the isolated regime diverts resources to its armed forces.

"We will uphold Comrade Kim Jong-Un as our supreme commander and general and we will bring the Songun revolution to a completion," the Rodong Sinmun, the mouthpiece of the ruling communist party, said in an editorial.

The newspaper urged Jong-Un, Kim's youngest son, to lead North Korea to "eternal victory".

It is the first time that the North's official media has used the title supreme commander - a post previously held by his father - for the new leader, already a four-star general despite only being in his late 20s.

"This shows that Jong-Un now has a firm grip on the military and the North is heralding this to the outside world," professor Kim Yong-Hyun of Dongguk University in Seoul told AFP.

"It also suggests that the North will continue with its Songun policy at least in the foreseeable future."

North Korea on Dec. 19 described the untested Jong-Un as the "great successor" after announcing the death of his father at age 69.

Experts said the latest acclamation is particularly significant because it came on the 20th anniversary of the declaration of Kim Jong-Il as supreme commander.

The dynasty's latest ruler remains a figure of mystery to the outside world, which is seeking clues to future policy in the nuclear-armed nation.

The son was appointed to senior military and party posts in September 2010, paving the way for a third-generation hereditary succession after the late Kim succeeded his own father Kim Il-Sung in the 1990s.

The country's regular armed forces total 1.19 million and the regime has a policy prioritizing the military's needs over those of civilians.

The elder Kim perpetuated his power using an all-pervading personality cult inherited from his father, and the North's propaganda machine has cranked into action to burnish the image of Jong-Un.

State media reported Dec. 24 that Kim Jong-Il's "loving care" for the North Korean people lingered even beyond his death, with residents in the capital enjoying a special treat of fresh fish.

The late leader took steps on the eve of his demise to supply the rare luxury, and Jong-Un ensured the fish was rushed to the people while in mourning, according to the Rodong Sinmun.

"Salespersons and citizens burst out sobbing at fish shops in the capital," it said, carrying pictures of housewives shedding tears of gratitude.

Kim Jong-Il presided over a 1990s famine that saw hundreds of thousands of people die, and there are still chronic food shortages in the impoverished communist state, particularly outside the privileged capital.

Activists in South Korea on Saturday sent 800 pairs of winter socks carried by balloons across the border to the North, where they can be exchanged for food. Temperatures fall well below freezing during the North's harsh winters.

South Korea also confirmed that the wife of its late president Kim Dae-Jung would visit the North next week on an unofficial visit to pay respects.

Former first lady Lee Hee-Ho, accompanied by Hyundai Group chairwoman Hyun Jung-Eun, will cross the heavily militarised border and travel overland to Pyongyang, but will not stay for Dec. 28's funeral, the government said.

South Korea, in a conciliatory move at a time of high tensions, on Dec. 21 expressed sympathy to the North's people, but not the communist regime.

It said it would permit only Lee and Hyun's delegation to visit the North to convey their private condolences. South Koreans must receive government permission for all contacts with the North.

Kim Dae-Jung and Kim Jong-Il held the first-ever North-South summit in 2000, while the Hyundai Group pioneered cross-border business exchanges.

China Rejects Link to Patriot Missiles in Finland

BEIJING - Beijing on Dec. 23 denied that a ship docked in Finland with more than 69 surface-to-air Patriot missiles on board had anything to do with China.

Finnish authorities are investigating after the missiles, produced by U.S. firm Raytheon, were discovered on a British-registered ship bound for the Chinese port city of Shanghai.

Finnish customs are investigating the case as one of illegal export of defense material. Two Ukrainians - the ship's captain and the first mate - have been detained.

"I don't see the ship transporting the missiles having anything to do with China," Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Liu Weimin told a regular briefing.

"I don't know why there is always someone who likes to link certain kinds of things with China and I have noticed the relevant report and I hope to clear up this event."

Germany's defense ministry has said the missiles came from its military and were destined for South Korea. A spokesman said the shipment was a "legal sale on the basis of an accord between two states at the government level".

He said the transaction had received an official export authorization and was reported to customs authorities.

N. Korea Test Fires Short-Range Missile

SEOUL, South Korea - North Korea test-fired a short-range missile off its east coast on Monday, the same day it announced the death of leader Kim Jong-Il, South Korea's Yonhap news agency said.

A WOMAN HANDS out free newspapers with an image of the late North Korean leader, Kim Jong-il, in Hong Kong on Monday. North Korean state-run television announced today that Kim Jong-il died at the age of 69. (Aaron Tam / AFP via Getty Images)

The agency quoted an unnamed government official as saying the missile launch was unrelated to the announcement that Kim had died Saturday of a heart attack. "North Korea test-fired a short-range missile this morning ... it has been [closely] monitored by our military authorities," said the official, as quoted by Yonhap.

Seoul's defense ministry declined to confirm the report. The missile is believed to have a range of about 120 kilometres (72 miles), he said, adding the North was apparently trying to improve the weapon. North Korea has been testing its new KN-06 missile, a modified version of the KN-01 and KN-02 ground-to-ground missiles, Yonhap said.

The communist country has frequently conducted short-range missile tests in recent years. South Korean officials say they are part of routine exercises but the tests are sometimes timed to coincide with periods of tension.

South Korea put its military on alert as the North's state television announced that the 69-year-old leader had died.

U.S. Navy Expects to Base Ships in Singapore

WASHINGTON - The United States, facing a rising China but a tighter budget, expects to station several combat ships in Singapore and may step up deployments to the Philippines and Thailand, a naval officer said.

ADM. JONATHAN GREENERT speaks during a ceremony in September at the U.S. Naval Academy in Annapolis, Md. In an academic article, Greenet said the U.S. Navy will stations its newest littoral combat ships in Singapore. (MCS 2nd Class Shannon Eve Renfroe / Navy)

The United States has been increasingly vocal about defending freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, where tensions over territorial disputes between Beijing and Southeast Asian nations have been on the rise.

In an academic article forecasting the shape of the U.S. Navy in 2025, Adm. Jonathan Greenert, chief of naval operations, wrote that "we will station several of our newest littoral combat ships" in Singapore.

Greenert said that the United States may also step up the periodic deployment of aircraft such as the P-8A Poseidon - which is being developed to track submarines - to regional treaty allies the Philippines and Thailand.

"The Navy will need innovative approaches to staying forward around the world to address growing concerns about freedom of the seas while being judicious with our resources," he wrote in the December issue of the U.S. Naval Institute's Proceedings.

"Because we will probably not be able to sustain the financial and diplomatic cost of new main operating bases abroad, the fleet of 2025 will rely more on host-nation ports and other facilities where our ships, aircraft, and crews can refuel, rest, resupply and repair while deployed," he wrote.

The naval officer did not directly mention China, as part of the usual policy by U.S. President Barack Obama's administration to publicly seek a more cooperative relationship with the growing Asian power.

But the United States has laid bare its concerns about China.

Obama last month announced that the United States would post up to 2,500 Marines in the northern Australian city of Darwin by 2016-17, a move criticized by Beijing.

The United States also has some 70,000 troops stationed in Japan and South Korea under longstanding alliances and has offered assistance to the Philippines which launched its newest warship on Dec. 14.

Singapore is also a long-standing partner of the United States. The U.S. military already operates a small post in the city-state that assists in logistics and exercises for forces in Southeast Asia.

In the article, Greenert described the Gulf monarchy of Bahrain as a model. The U.S. Fifth Fleet is based on the small island which is strategically close to Afghanistan, Iraq and Iran.

"In 2025 the Navy will operate from a larger number of partner nations such as Bahrain to more affordably maintain our forward posture around the world," he wrote.

The United States spent some $700 billion on its military in the past year, far more than any other country, and many lawmakers accept the need for cuts as the Iraq and Afghan operations wind down.

The Obama administration has identified Asia - full of fast-growing economies and with a still emerging security order - as the key priority for the United States.

Obama, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Defense Secretary Leon Panetta all traveled to Asia in recent months to hammer home the message that the United States will not leave the region despite economic woes at home.

"As the United States puts our fiscal house in order, we are reducing our spending," Obama said in his speech in Darwin.

But he added: "Here is what this region must know. As we end today's wars, I have directed my national security team to make our presence and missions in the Asia-Pacific a top priority."

Naval power, critical to the rise of the United States and earlier Britain as global powers, is expected to remain critical in the 21st century.

China has developed its first aircraft carrier, which has undergone two sea trials this year. An image of the 300-meter (990-foot) refitted former Soviet carrier was captured by U.S.-based company Digital Globe Inc.

North Korea Agrees to Suspend Uranium Enrichment: Reports

SEOUL - North Korea has agreed to suspend its enriched-uranium nuclear weapons program, a key United States demand for the resumption of disarmament talks, news reports said Dec. 17.

Yonhap news agency and the Chosun Ilbo daily quoted an unidentified diplomatic source saying that Washington had also agreed to provide the North with up to 240,000 tons of food aid.

Pyongyang pledged "to implement initial measures of denuclearization that include a suspension of its uranium enrichment program," Yonhap said.

The North apparently agreed to put stricter and clearer monitoring systems in place to ensure that the food aid reached those most in need, according to the source, Yonhap said.

The agreements came when Robert King, U.S. special envoy for North Korean human rights, met with Ri Gun, head of North American affairs at North Korea's foreign ministry, on Dec. 15 and Dec. 16 in Beijing, the source said.

The reports could not be independently confirmed.

Suspending the uranium enrichment program - first disclosed by the North one year ago - is a key demand of Washington's before six-party negotiation scan resume.

The North quit the six-party forum - which also includes China, Russia, Japan and South Korea - in April 2009, one month before its second nuclear test.

Pyongyang has long said it wanted the six-nation talks to re-start, but without preconditions. But the United States says the North must first show "seriousness of purpose" by shutting down the enrichment program.

According to both Yonhap and Chosun Ilbo, the two countries were likely to hold a third round of talks this coming week in Beijing to discuss resuming the six-party talks.

Glyn Davies, the U.S. special representative on North Korea, will likely meet with North Korean First Vice Foreign Minister Kim Kye-Gwan in Beijing around Dec. 22, the source said.

North Korea was promised 500,000 tons of food aid from the United States when it dismantled part of its nuclear facilities in Yongbyon in 2008. It had received 170,000 tons by the time the aid was suspended in 2009 as tensions worsened over the North's nuclear programs.

Fighter Jet Projects Surge, But Not Where You'd Expect

The number of countries attempting to develop a new fighter aircraft has surged recently, part of a cycle that has ebbed and flowed since the dawn of the jet age.

South Korea and Turkey are the latest nations to start clean-sheet programs, while Japan is working on its ATD-X concept demonstrator, India is working on an improved version of its Light Combat Aircraft and Indonesia has signed on to the Korean effort.

Most are drawn by the prospects of developing a homegrown industrial base, boosting employment and filling military needs, analysts said.

"If you want to do all three badly, then you build a national fighter," said Richard Aboulafia, an analyst at the Teal Group, Fairfax, Va. "It comes in waves, and a lot of it driven by national aspirations and a lot of it is driven by perception of threat, and a lot of it is driven by the ruling party in the given country."

In the 1980s, domestic politics fostered a spate of indigenous fighter projects, which were generally killed off in the next decade or two by economic realities, Aboulafia said. With free-market capitalism's cachet diminished in many parts of the world, such national programs have made a comeback.

"Even autarchy has come back into vogue," Aboulafia said. "I think this might be a reflected dislike of market reality that has come with the economic meltdown of the past three years."

There is also a perception that an indigenous effort will be cheaper than an imported design, said Byron Callan, an analyst at Capital Alpha Partners in Washington. Many countries cannot afford new fighters such as the F-35, Eurofighter Typhoon, Dassault Rafale or even the new Russian PAK-FA, Callan said.

Even the Swedish Gripen, which recently won a Swiss order largely because it was cheaper than the Rafale and Typhoon, is very expensive, he said.

Something has to fill the market void, Callan said.

But Aboulafia said these nations are grossly underestimating the cost of developing a new fighter. For example, Seoul estimates that its KF-X stealth fighter effort will cost about $8 billion - "which is enough to maybe design a decent set of wings," he said.

Dan Gouré, an analyst at the Lexington Institute, Arlington, Va., concurred.

"It's horribly expensive," he said.

The track record for national fighter programs is not a good one. Japan, which has a highly developed economy and advanced technology, tried and failed to develop good cost-effective fighter, even with U.S. help, Aboulafia said.

Japan's experience with the F-2, which was based on the F-16, was a disaster that largely soured the country on developing an indigenous fighter. Aboulafia noted Tokyo's ongoing ATD-X stealth fighter development effort but said it would likely produce only a concept demonstrator, not a full production effort.

"There is nothing about history that would make you want to do this," Aboulafia said. "And looking at history, they have a lot to answer for."

Nor do most countries attempting to build an indigenous fighter have the technical wherewithal to build such an aircraft. Neither Turkey nor South Korea has the technical ability to build such fighters without external help.

"They're going to find there is an enormous gap between the licensed production of F-16s and designing, integrating and producing an entirely new product," Aboulafia said.

Even South Korea's recent experience in co-developing the T-50 jet trainer does little to alleviate the problem, he said.

Gouré was blunt about their chances for success: "There is no way in hell."

Only a handful of nations can design and build fighters without external help, he said. France, Britain, the U.S. and Russia are the only countries ever to successfully develop their own fighters, he said.

"Even the Chinese stuff, it's really all derivative of Russian hardware," he said.

Only about 60 percent of the Saab Gripen is built in Sweden, with the rest, including the engines, mostly U.S. in origin, Gouré said.

Because indigenous programs almost invariably offer an inferior product, there is tension between those who would develop such aircraft and those who will be expected to fly them in combat.

"Are you simply expecting to do as good a job as a traditional producer, or are you simply expecting your air force to take casualties?" Aboulafia said. "The best-case scenario is the reinvention of a fourth-generation jet with higher cost, which is exactly what happened with Japan's F-2."

India's Light Combat Aircraft is a good example. Leery of adopting the homegrown fighter because of its less-than-impressive performance, the Air Force has shown a clear preference for the winner of the country's Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft - either Rafale or the Typhoon - and the Indo-Russian T-50 PAK-FA stealth fighter.

Callan said, ultimately, countries that need only interceptors for home defense don't need particularly advanced aircraft. A light fighter similar to an F-16 or F/A-18 might suffice.

"There is 'good enough' for a lot of these markets," he said.