Think Tank Raises Concern on Pakistan's Plutonium

ISLAMABAD - Washington should pressure Pakistan to curtail its accelerating efforts to enrich plutonium, the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) says in a new report.

The May 16 report says Pakistan's program "is by itself an inherent nuclear material security risk" that "complicates efforts to agree on a Fissile Materials Cut-off Treaty (FMCT)." The Washington-based think tank also says the country has excessive plutonium stocks.
The report recommends the Obama administration "publicly insist that Pakistan halt construction."
"Congress should condition a fraction of U.S. aid on Pakistan announcing a moratorium on further construction and agreeing to a FMCT," the report said.
The report compares GeoEye satellite images of the fourth reactor site at the Khushab enrichment facility taken on Jan. 15 and April 20. It said the pace of construction was likely to be faster than on the previous reactors, and that the new reactor could be active in "a few years," depending on the progress of its "overseas illicit procurement of goods for this reactor."
An earlier ISIS report from April 14 cited some of these efforts.
Once operational, the four reactors at Khushab "will roughly double Pakistan's annual ability to build nuclear weapons to about 19-26 nuclear weapons per year."
ISIS has long documented Pakistan's nuclear program, but this is the first time it has openly asked Washington to try to slow its progress.
Mansoor Ahmed, a lecturer with the Department of Defence and Strategic Studies at Islamabad's Quaid-e-Azam University, said the report shows a double standard in responses to Pakistan's and India's nuclear efforts.
Ahmed said the three reactors at Khushab can produce 50 megawatts apiece, and can produce 9 to 12 kilograms of plutonium annually, while India is working on a second 100-megawatt thermal plutonium production reactor and has 950 kilograms of weapons-grade plutonium and 11.5 tons of weapon-usable, reactor-grade plutonium.
"Assuming five kilograms of weapon-grade and 10 kilograms of reactor-grade plutonium per weapon, these stocks are sufficient for India to develop 190 and 1,150 nuclear warheads, respectively," he said.
Ahmed also noted that the Indo-U.S. nuclear deal means India "can potentially add 1,250 [kilograms] of weapon-usable, reactor-grade plutonium from its eight unsafeguarded heavy water power reactors, 130 [kilograms] of weapon-grade plutonium from each of its five existing and planned unsafeguarded fast-breeder reactors to its existing stocks of fissile material each year."
Ultimately, Pakistan's efforts are a question of maintaining the credibility of its deterrent.
Ahmed said, "Pakistan will have to maintain the credibility of its minimum deterrent, which is dynamic and sensitive to the threat perception emanating from India's potential to massively increase its nuclear arsenal in the near future, and is not a manifestation of engaging into a nuclear arms buildup, which it does not desire, nor can it afford."

Nuclear Scientist Says Bomb Saved Pakistan

WASHINGTON - The father of Pakistan's nuclear bomb has vigorously defended the program as sparing his country the fate of Iraq or Libya, amid signs that Islamabad is ramping up its weapons capacities.
Writing in Newsweek magazine, Abdul Qadeer Khan said that Pakistan's nuclear weapons had prevented war with historic rival India, which he accused of pursuing a "massive program" due to ambitions of superpower status.

"Don't overlook the fact that no nuclear-capable country has been subjected to aggression or occupied, or had its borders redrawn. Had Iraq and Libya been nuclear powers, they wouldn't have been destroyed in the way we have seen recently," Khan said.
Khan also argued that Bangladesh would not have won independence in 1971 if Pakistan had nuclear weapons. India supported Bangladesh's independence, which came after a nine-month struggle that was harshly put down by Pakistani forces.
Many Pakistanis regard Khan as a hero for building the Islamic world's first nuclear bomb. India and Pakistan carried out nuclear tests in 1998.
He admitted in 2004 that he ran a nuclear black-market selling secrets to Iran, Libya and North Korea. But Khan later retracted his remarks and in 2009 was freed from house arrest, although he was asked to keep a low profile.
Western powers in March launched a military campaign against Libya over concerns of violence against civilians. Libyan leader Moamer Kadhafi agreed in 2003 to end his nuclear program and tried to reconcile with the West.
Pakistan has been increasingly worried about its nuclear program after U.S. forces on May 2 managed to enter the country covertly to kill the world's most wanted man, Osama bin Laden, who was living in the garrison city of Abbottabad.
Khan lashed out at Pakistanis who contend that the country, which suffers grinding poverty and receives billions of dollars in U.S. assistance each year, cannot afford its nuclear program.
"The propaganda about spending exorbitant sums on the nuclear program circulated by ignorant, often foreign-paid, Pakistanis has no substance," he wrote.
But Khan also said that Pakistan's "incompetent and ignorant rulers" never devoted enough resources to development, which he argued should have been easier due to the protection ensured by nuclear weapons.
While Khan said he was not familiar with the latest developments in Pakistan's nuclear program, Newsweek published a commercial satellite image that appeared to show expedited construction at the country's Khushab nuclear site.
The Institute for Science and International Security, which assessed the image, said it showed "significant progress" on a fourth reactor. A frame of a building was now visible, which did not appear in a picture taken in January.
The Washington-based think-tank said that plutonium from the new reactors would allow a "dramatic increase" in production, potentially allowing Pakistan to double its annual production of nuclear weapons.
Pakistan is the sole country blocking talks in the Conference of Disarmament that would lead to an international agreement banning production of new nuclear bomb-making material.
Pakistan said that Senator John Kerry, on a mission to Islamabad to ease tensions in the wake of bin Laden's killing, assured Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani that the United States had no designs on taking over the country's nuclear arsenal.
"He said that he can write this with his blood, that we have no interest in Pakistan's nuclear assets," Gilani's office said in a statement.
But the statement quoted Kerry as hoping that Pakistan's nuclear weapons would be "well-protected and secure" under a "proper command and control system."

Loss of Carrier Strike Capability Top Concern of Royal Navy Chief

LONDON - The head of the Royal Navy says retaining Britain's carrier strike capability would have been top of his "wish list" if the recent strategic defense and security review were to be rewritten.

A Harrier launches from HMS Ark Royal. Withdrawing Ark Royal and the Harriers earlier this year was by far the most controversial element of British defense spending cuts. The Royal Navy chief indicated he would not oppose resurrecting the Harrier fo (U.K. Ministry of Defence)

First Sea Lord Adm. Sir Mark Stanhope told the parliamentary defense committee that if Britain still had a carrier available, it would be deployed off the coast of Libya helping to enforce U.N. Resolution 1973.

Giving evidence alongside the heads of the Army and Air Force on the impact of last year's defense review, Stanhope said that retaining HMS Ark Royal and its fleet of Harrier strike aircraft would have been his top priority if the government's strategic defense review and associated four-year defense spending plan could be revisited.
Britain's Navy was hard hit by the latest round of defense cuts with frigates, destroyers, an aircraft carrier and support ships all being pensioned off. The other two services also suffered heavy cuts, particularly the Royal Air Force.
Later in his evidence, Stanhope pointed to the impact the cuts were already having, saying the Royal Navy would find it "significantly challenging" to maintain the deployment of a frigate and a mine countermeasures vessel off the coast of Libya for much more than six months without crippling other standing commitments.
The British government axed the Royal Navy's remaining aircraft carrier and the Harrier aircraft that fly from its deck as part of a strategic defense and security review that saw surveillance aircraft, warships, tanks and other equipment eliminated to help meet swinging cuts to the defense budget over the four years ending 2014.
Withdrawing Ark Royal and the Harriers earlier this year was by far the most controversial element of the defense spending cuts. Stanhope later indicated he would not oppose resurrecting the Harrier force if possible and if money was made available to support the aircraft.
Stanhope and Air Marshal Sir Stephen Dalton, the chief of the Air Staff, were asked by a defense committee member whether returning the Harrier force to service had gone beyond the point of no return.
Dalton said it had. But Stanhope responded that while Dalton's statement was correct, he would "like to think that should a decision [be made to reassess the Harrier force, we could], look again. It all comes down to money."
Stanhope said the Royal Navy is faced with the task of regenerating the carrier force in the latter half of the decade as a new aircraft carrier and the F-35C fighter become available. Rebuilding an aircraft carrier force around 2019 could only be done with the assistance of allied carrier operators France and the U.S., he said. Such a program is now being developed, Stanhope said.
Three Fleet Air Arm pilots are already flying F/A-18s with the U.S. military to help maintain British capabilities. A fourth is due to move to the U.S. soon, he said.
Britain is building two 65,000-ton carriers, with the first entering service around 2017 and the second scheduled to be ready around 2019.
The defense cuts saw the government commit to only operating the second of the warships as an aircraft carrier.
Stanhope said Britain would have to operate two carriers unless it wanted to follow the example of France, which could only get its single carrier, the nuclear powered Charles de Gaulle, operational for five years in every eight. The remainder of the time is devoted to maintenance and workup, he said.
The Harriers were operated jointly by the Royal Navy and Air Force, and the plan is to do the same with the F-35s. In his evidence, Dalton denied the RAF had any ambitions to take over the role of the Fleet Air Arm on the Navy carriers, and said a 60-40 split in favor of the Air Force had already been agreed to between the two services.
Dalton said the carrier would start operating with a single squadron of F-35s and eventually work up to three squadrons.

N. Korea Again Denies Sinking S. Korea Warship

SEOUL, South Korea - North Korea on May 15 accused South Korea of inventing allegations against it to raise tension and repeated denials of involvement in a deadly ship sinking and a damaging cyber-attack on a bank.
"We strongly urge the group of traitors to own responsibility for faking up the conspiratorial farces doing harm to the fellow countrymen and make an official apology before the nation," the North's top leadership body the National Defense Commission (NDC) said, referring to the South's leaders.

The North has repeatedly denied involvement in the sinking of the South Korean warship Cheonan, which killed 46, near the disputed sea border in March 2010.
Last week the North's defense ministry also denied carrying out a cyber-attack on one of South Korea's largest banks in April, calling the allegations "absurd" and a "farce."
South Korean prosecutors say the North brought down the computer system of the National Agricultural Cooperative Federation by hacking into an official's laptop and operating it remotely as a "zombie computer."
The NDC statement via the North's official news agency repeated those denials.
The South, citing a multinational investigation, said a North Korean torpedo sank Cheonan and put what it said was a salvaged portion of the torpedo on display.
The North said its neighbor cooked up the story as part of what it calls a policy of confrontation designed to ensure a continuing U.S. military presence.
The NDC, which is chaired by leader Kim Jong-Il, said the cyber-attack claim followed recriminations between Seoul's presidential palace and the ruling party over a by-election setback.
It said further allegations may be "orchestrated as long as the group of traitors is working hard to stoke confrontation between the North and the South."

Pakistan Won't Share Raid Wreckage With China

WASHINGTON - Pakistan said May 11 it would not share the wreckage of a U.S. helicopter used in the raid that killed Osama bin Laden with China, after speculation that the aircraft contained secret technology.
"Pakistan is not going to share any technology, and I don't think our friends in China have shown any interest in doing so," Husain Haqqani, Pakistan's ambassador to the U.S., told CNN.

Photographs of the wrecked helicopter, which malfunctioned during the raid and was deliberately blown up, fueled speculation among experts and enthusiasts that new features had been added to it to reduce noise or foil radar detection.
Some even postulated that the helicopter, which officials say was a Black Hawk, was actually a new kind of "stealth" aircraft, with technology that could fall into the hands of Pakistan's ally, China.
Defense analysts, however, have said that although the wrecked aircraft appears to be a modified Black Hawk, the technology in question is not shrouded in secrecy, and Pakistan and China would gain little from the remains.
Tensions between the U.S. and its ally, Pakistan, have run high since bin Laden, the mastermind of the Sept. 11 attacks and the world's most wanted man, was found living in a garrison town near Islamabad.
Haqqani insisted, however, that the two countries were still "in close contact" and were trying to "get to the bottom of things."
"The United States and Pakistan, at the government-to-government level, the intelligence-to-intelligence level and military-to-military level, are in close contact," he told CNN. "We are not in the business of denial or contradiction right now. We are trying to get to the bottom of things, understand the intelligence and work together.
"At the same time," he added, "we continue to be concerned about unilateral actions and would prefer if the United States works with Pakistan instead of making Pakistan look like the bad guy."

Medvedev to EU, U.S.: Don't Sideline Russia on Missile Defense

MOSCOW - Systems to protect Europe from missile attack risk being ineffective and a threat to stability if they do not include Russia, President Dmitry Medvedev warned May 14.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, shown here during a May 13 speech, made his comments in a letter sent to NATO heads of state. (Kremlin pool photo via AFP)

The Kremlin said Medvedev has written a letter to NATO heads of state to make clear Russia's position on missile defense amid continued tensions with the West over the longstanding dispute.

The letter appears to be a sign of growing frustration from Moscow that it is being sidelined by the West in discussions on the issue despite signs of progress late last year.
"A European missile defense system can only be genuinely effective and viable if Russia participates in an equal way," the Kremlin quoted Medvedev as saying.
Medvedev said it was necessary to be sure that the missile defense systems placed in Europe do not "disrupt strategic stability and will not be directed against either of the sides."
Russia earlier this month reacted with concern to an agreement between the United States and Romania to place U.S. missile interceptors at a Soviet-built airbase in the EU member state.
At a summit of NATO leaders in Lisbon in November, Medvedev proposed that Europe be divided into sectors of military responsibility, including one overseen by Russia and one by NATO, to better protect the continent.
But so far the plan, which was hailed by Russian officials as a chance for a major breakthrough in Moscow-NATO ties, appears to have attracted little interest in the West.

U.S. Rolls Out Red Carpet for China Military Chief

WASHINGTON - The U.S. military will lay out the red carpet for China's military chief as Washington renews its effort to forge a defense dialogue with Beijing despite tensions and mutual distrust.
People's Liberation Army (PLA) Chief of General Staff Chen Bingde starts a week-long visit May 15 to the United States, the first trip to America by the country's top-ranking officer in seven years, officials said.

Chen will tour four military bases, deliver a speech to American officers and hold talks with his U.S. counterpart, Adm. Mike Mullen, Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, a senior defense official said.
"We've pulled out all the stops" for the visit, the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told reporters.
Military relations between the nations have been strained and lagged behind diplomatic and trade ties, with Beijing objecting to U.S. arms sales to Taiwan while Washington has voiced concern about China's military buildup.
Gates and other U.S. officials have appealed to China to agree to a more reliable dialogue that could help defuse tensions and avoid potential misunderstandings, similar to ties that were built up between the Americans and the Soviets during the Cold War.
"What we're really looking for is a relationship that there's some mutual transparency and trust developed between us. So that if there is some incident or some disagreement, it's a relationship that we can depend on," the official said.
The Pentagon did not expect a breakthrough during Chen's visit but the official said Mullen, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, hoped to persuade Chen to agree to more regularly scheduled discussions.
"We will discuss options for more contact, with some established rhythm, periodic phone conversations, something like that," he said.
The last U.S. visit by a senior leader from the PLA was in 2009, when Gen. Xu Caihou came to Washington and toured military bases.
When the U.S. defense secretary paid a high-profile visit to Beijing in January, the Chinese military upstaged Gates with an inaugural test flight of the country's J-20 stealth fighter.
Chen was expected to offer his view of military relations at a May 18 speech at National Defense University after holding talks May 17 with Mullen and senior military staff in the Pentagon's "tank."
Over the course of the week, the Chinese general is due to get a first-hand look at U.S. naval warships at Naval Station Norfolk, Va.; a "live fire" exercise at Fort Stewart, Ga.; fighter aircraft at Nellis Air Force Base, Nev.; and the military's National Training Center in California.
Chen also plans to attend a concert May 16 at Washington's Kennedy Center with bands from the U.S. Army and the PLA performing. U.S. officials said it will mark the first time a PLA band has ever played in the United States.
Chen's visit comes after the United States said May 11 that it wanted to set guidelines with Beijing on the use of space, voicing worries that the Asian power is increasingly able to destroy or jam satellites.