Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal tops 100

Citing US non-government analysts, the newspaper said that only four years ago, the Pakistani nuclear arsenal was estimated at 30 to 60 weapons. – AFP Photo

WASHINGTON: Pakistan has doubled its nuclear weapons stockpile over the past several years, increasing its arsenal to more than 100 deployed weapons, The Washington Post reported late Sunday.
Citing US non-government analysts, the newspaper said that only four years ago, the Pakistani nuclear arsenal was estimated at 30 to 60 weapons.
“They have been expanding pretty rapidly,” the report quoted David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security, as saying.
Based on recently accelerated production of plutonium and highly enriched uranium, Islamabad may now have an arsenal of up to 110 weapons, Albright said.
As a result, Pakistan has now edged ahead of India, its nuclear-armed rival, The Post noted. India is estimated to have 60 to 100 weapons.

U.K., Canada Discuss Joint Frigate Development

LONDON - Britain is in talks with Canada about a possible joint program to develop a frigate for their respective navies, according to U.K. Defence Minister Gerald Howarth.

Responding to questions from parliamentarians Jan. 31, Howarth said the British government is in "close discussion with the Canadians" on a possible collaborative program to develop the Global Combat Ship, destined to replace Type 23 frigates in Royal Navy service by the start of the next decade.
The minister said Australia, Malaysia, New Zealand and Turkey have expressed interest in the warship program, to be called the Type 26 in Royal Navy service, when Defence Secretary Liam Fox recently visited the various countries.
The British government is mounting a major effort to increase defense exports in the next few years to offset the downturn in military budgets at home, and has identified the Global Combat Ship as a key platform for a collaborative effort with Commonwealth and other allies.
BAE Systems has been working since last year on a 127 million-pound ($202 million) assessment phase to provide a warship capable of supporting land operations and conducting other roles, such as anti-submarine warfare.
Last year, the company, supported by the government, made proposals to Brazil to build up naval capabilities, including joint development of the Global Combat Ship. Italy, France and others have also shown an interest in the Brazilian program.

Afghan War Winnable Without Pakistan: U.S.

WASHINGTON - NATO-led forces can still win the war in Afghanistan even if Pakistan fails to move against militant havens on the border, a top U.S. general said Feb. 1.
"That's not a mission stopper in my mind," Gen. David Rodriguez, deputy U.S. commander in Afghanistan, told a Pentagon news conference.

U.S. officials have long pressed Islamabad to crack down on the Haqqani network and other militants based in North Waziristan, saying the insurgents exploit the area as a sanctuary to stage attacks on coalition forces in neighboring Afghanistan.
But Rodriguez said the war effort would not be derailed even if Pakistan never fulfils promises to take action in North Waziristan, saying Islamabad has launched effective operations elsewhere along the northwest border.
"We need them to do more. We're going to encourage them to do more because that makes it easier on what we're doing. But I think it's still doable, without them decreasing what they've been doing, which is significant," he said.
His comments contrasted with more pessimistic assessments from U.S. intelligence agencies and some lawmakers, who have warned that Pakistan's reluctance to combat the Haqqani network in North Waziristan could undermine the war effort.
Pakistan has maintained ties to some militant groups as a hedge against historic rival India and to ensure Islamabad's influence in Afghanistan, diplomats say.
Rodriguez said he expected violence in Afghanistan to increase as usual in the spring as the insurgency launches its annual "seasonal" offensive.
But he predicted the Taliban would change its approach, targeting Afghan officials for assassination while moving away from confrontations with the heavily-armed coalition force.
With President Barack Obama planning to start a withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan in July, Rodriguez said it was too early to say how many forces might be pulled out.
Rodriguez leads the International Security Assistance Force Joint Command, serving under the overall commander in Afghanistan, U.S. Gen. David Petraeus.

China, Pakistan, Iran Blocked From Indian Air Show

NEW DELHI - India, which hosts South Asia's biggest air show next week, has not invited arch-rival Pakistan, China or Iran to the biennial event, organizers said on Feb. 1.
"Invitations to the air show have not been sent to China, Pakistan and Iran, but these are decided by the foreign ministry," defense production secretary R.K. Singh told a news conference in New Delhi.

Pakistan and India, who have fought three wars since their 1947 independence from the British, have no military-to-military contacts.
Trade links in recent years have improved between India and China, who fought a brief but bloody border war in 1962, but strategic ties are frosty as territorial disputes remain unresolved despite rounds of negotiations.
Singh did not comment on New Delhi's decision to block Iran from the event.
Aero India 2011, which begins on Feb. 9, has invited a delegation from war-torn Afghanistan, Singh said, as part of India's national policy to build better ties with the country.
"We have good cooperation with Afghanistan and so we are delighted it is sending a delegation to the air show. We want such cooperation to grow," Singh said.
About 350 official and trade delegations from 30 countries including Australia, Britain, France, Germany, Russia, Germany and the United States will participate in the five-day event, the organizer said.

Indian Ocean's 'Great Game'

The intensifying great power rivalry that has characterized the geopolitics of the Indian Ocean is providing unprecedented impetus for the economic development of the region. The weakening of Western, or more specifically, U.S. influence throughout the world has in part enabled an increasingly powerful China, and an emerging India, to expand their influence through shrewd soft-power diplomacy.
Due to the confluence of common strategic interests shared by the world's major powers, a new great game is emerging in the Indian Ocean region. Both China and India have fostered initiatives and forums to attract and project their power and influence.
For instance, China has two main multilateral forums, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and Forum of China-Africa Cooperation. Similarly, India has three multilateral initiatives: the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium, India-Africa Forum and the Pan-African e-network.
The advent of this changing geopolitical dynamic has provided developing countries with greater flexibility to resist Western pressure by courting China and India. A case in point was recently encapsulated by the president of Senegal, Abdoulaye Wade, who wrote in the Financial Times, "The battle for influence in the world between the West and China is not Africa's problem. Our continent is in a hurry to build infrastructure, ensure affordable energy and educate our people.
"With direct aid, credit lines and reasonable contracts, China has helped African nations build infrastructure projects in record time - bridges, roads, schools, hospitals, dams, legislative buildings, stadiums and airports.
"Today I find myself at the heart of an economic struggle with the EU. If Europe does not want to provide funding for African infrastructure … the Chinese are ready to take up the task, more rapidly and at less cost," he added.
The hallmarks of power plays that continue between India and China are apparent in almost every country throughout the Indian Ocean region. China's drive to open new routes and markets that bypass its strategic overdependence on the Malacca Strait has led to trade and economic development in underdeveloped regions of Central Asia, West Asia and South Asia.
For instance, in South Asia, China has invested billions in major infrastructure development projects such as the construction of new ports like Hambantota in Sri Lanka, Gwadar in Pakistan and Sittwe in Myanmar. China is also engaged in the construction of highways, railways and oil and gas pipelines that directly link Gwadar and Sittwe to China's western and southern borders.
Similarly, India has sought to expand into new markets and is offering attractive aid and investment packages to countries in South Asia and throughout the Indian Ocean region.
There are numerous examples of China and India's regional engagement. For instance, India recently approved a credit facility worth $640 million for the development of Ethiopia's sugarcane and bio-fuel industry, while China provided a soft loan worth $700 million so the Ethiopian government can build an 80-kilometer, six-lane highway and a $1.5 billion loan to modernize telecommunications infrastructure.
Bilateral trade between India and Mozambique increased from $178 million in 2005-06 to $459 million in 2008-09. Similarly, India's bilateral trade with Kenya has surpassed $1.5 billion in 2009-10, making India Kenya's sixth-largest trading partner.
Bilateral trade between China and Mauritius has increased from $96 million in 2001 to an estimated $505 million in 2007. In 2008, China announced plans to invest $730 million to open a trade development zone for Chinese firms, which made the project the largest source of foreign direct investment in Mauritius. One year later, China agreed to lend $260 million to expand Mauritius' only international airport.
For the time being, the emerging competition and shifting balance of power in the Indian Ocean region is proving beneficial for developing countries that are intent on rapid economic and infrastructure development. Indeed, while Western countries over the last few years have generally increased their foreign aid budgets and investment in the developing world, this alone has not necessarily secured Western influence as aid and investment is often attached with political and human rights caveats.
In contrast, China and India have no such compulsions and continue to focus foreign investment and aid to enhance their strategic influence throughout the Indian Ocean region.
Sergei DeSilva-Ranasinghe is a senior analyst at Future Directions International, a strategic think tank based in Perth, Australia.

Colonel: Next Reaper Must Tackle Emerging Threats

The U.S. Air Force's next-generation replacement for its MQ-9 Reaper unmanned combat aircraft will be modular, easily upgradable, stealthy, feature jam-resistant communications and will be highly common with the Navy's forthcoming Unmanned Carrier-Launched Surveillance and Strike (UCLASS) aircraft, said a senior service official.

The next generation of the MQ-9 Reaper must be able to face emerging threats such as cyberwarfare, said Col. James Gear, director of the Air Force's Remotely Piloted Aircraft Task Force. (U.S. Air Force)

While the current fleet of Reaper drones serves the Air Force well over the skies of Iraq and Afghanistan, the aircraft is not without its flaws.

The Reaper does not fare well in icing conditions, and thus, a next generation MQ-9 replacement must be "weather tolerant", said Col. James Gear, the service's director for its Remotely Piloted Aircraft Task Force during AUVSI's Unmanned Systems Program Review 2011 on Feb. 2. Nor will the Reaper be able survive inside contested airspace where there is a surface-to-air threat, he said.
"In tomorrow's conflict, or going even further to the right to an anti-access environment, the MQ-9 and MQ-1 [Predator unmanned aircraft] are not well suited for that. So there is certainly a requirement and need for an aircraft [that] operates in these three different threats," Gear said.
The threats the next-generation plane might face emanate not only from surface-to-air missiles and enemy aircraft, but also from the emerging realm of cyber-warfare.
The MQ-X must, therefore, have secure jam-proof data-links that are fully encrypted and must be able to verify who is trying to signal it, he said.
Additionally, the aircraft must be modular and upgradable, Gear said. Capabilities would be added incrementally and the design should be flexible enough to be upgraded to handle new "requirements [that are not] fully defined or funded," he said.
Additionally, the future MQ-X will be highly common with the Navy's UCLASS program. While the carrier-based Navy aircraft has different requirements, the Air Force and the sea service have been cooperating closely, Gear said.
"It's very similar to the MQ-X," he said.

Bulgaria Fishes For Fighter Jet Offers

SOFIA, Bulgaria - Bulgaria's defense ministry said Feb. 2 it had requested information from France, Germany, Sweden and the U.S. on the potential supply of new or used fighter jets for its air force.
The letters, sent in January, requested from the four countries "information on their capabilities for logistical support, equipment, training, financial schemes, exploitation period, etc," the ministry said in a statement.

"The request concerns the purchase of eight new or used multifunctional fighters," it added.
The ministry however noted that "at this stage there is no clarity on the financial parameters of the project."
No company names were mentioned in the statement but the newspaper Standart reported on Feb. 2 that Sofia was eyeing offers from major fighter jet producers like European defense giant EADS, Sweden's Gripen and U.S. Lockheed Martin.
Sofia will develop the parameters of its investment project based on the information it receives from the four countries, before officially calling a tender for the fighters, expected at the beginning of 2012 at the earliest, according to the defense ministry.
The acquisition of new multipurpose fighters for Bulgaria's air force had so far been delayed due to severe financial constraints.
A 2007 U.S. document leaked by WikiLeaks and cited by Bulgarian media on Feb. 2 revealed strong U.S. pressure on Bulgaria not to acquire new fighters, but to purchase second-hand U.S. F-16 or F-18 aircraft instead.
In case Bulgaria decided to acquire new combat aircraft, "U.S. manufacturers will, of course, be in this hunt," the cable added.