JERUSALEM - Israel is warily watching Iranian plans to station two warships in the Mediterranean, fearing the ploy is an attempt by Tehran to raise tensions between the arch foes, analysts said on Feb. 17.
The two ships, from Iran's 12th Flotilla, were expected to have crossed the Suez Canal into the Mediterranean in recent days, but were apparently held up after being denied permission to use the waterway.
Most concede that the Iranian vessels, a frigate and a support vessel, do not pose a direct threat to the Jewish state, but by brazenly sailing into Israel's home waters, they are staking Iran's claim to be a regional power.
In a worst-case scenario, analysts warned, the move could lead to the first-ever direct clash between Iranian and Israel forces, escalating a conflict that has, until now, been fought through Iran's proxies in Lebanon and Gaza.
On Feb. 16, Israel's hardline Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman called the move a "provocation" and said the Jewish state would not be able to ignore it for long.
Analysts said Iran appeared to be trying to boost its standing as a major force in the region.
"Iran is sending a political message, asserting its presence and power in the eastern Mediterranean, where it has allies in Syria, Lebanon and Hezbollah," said Ephraim Inbar, a professor of political science at Bar Ilan University.
The vessels are supposed to heading for a Syrian port, where they are due to be stationed for up to a year, Iranian officials said.
The Kharg is a 33,000-ton refueling and support vessel, and the Alvand is a 1,500-ton light patrol frigate, and both are British built, Iran's official Fars news agency said, quoting naval commanders.
The Kharg has a crew of 250 and can carry three helicopters, while the Alvand is armed with torpedoes and anti-ship missiles.
According to Fars, the 12th Flotilla is normally assigned to protect Iranian merchant vessels in the Gulf of Aden, an area plagued by Somali pirates.
"The Iranians are raising the stakes in the poker game against the West, and this time they are doing it vis-a-vis Israel in the Mediterranean theatre," wrote analyst Alex Fishman in the mass-selling Yediot Aharonot newspaper.
Fishman said their presence off the Israeli coast could lead to direct clashes, particularly if they tried to intervene in attempts by activists to breach Israel's naval blockade off the Gaza Strip, or tried to approach Israeli patrols off the Lebanese coast.
"From here on, scenarios could develop that are liable to cause a direct clash between Iran and Israel. This will no longer be with proxies on the Lebanese and Gaza borders, but directly with Iranian forces," he wrote.
Israel sees Tehran as its principal threat after repeated predictions by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of the Jewish state's demise. Israel also accuses Iran of arming and funding Lebanon's Hezbollah militia and Gaza's Hamas rulers.
Israel, which has the Middle East's sole if undeclared nuclear arsenal, suspects Iran of trying to develop atomic weapons under cover of a civilian nuclear program.
Tehran denies that charge and has accused Israel of trying to sabotage its civilian nuclear program and kill its nuclear scientists.
For now, the Iranian ships are still awaiting permission to transit the Suez Canal.
Egyptian and Iranian officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said the ships had requested permission to enter the canal, but had been denied for technical reasons connected to the chaos caused by the political unrest that brought down President Hosni Mubarak last week.
Under international law, Cairo cannot bar the Iranian vessels unless the two countries are officially at war, but Egypt, which has its own tense past with Iran, is also unlikely to want Iranian war ships patrolling in its sphere of influence.
If the ships were to pass through, it would be the first time Iranian naval vessels have done so since the 1979 Iranian revolution, which led to the severing of full diplomatic ties with Egypt.
Others sought to down play the military significance of the move, but said it was still a bold political statement from Tehran.
"The visit poses as no real threat either to Israel or to the moderate Arab regimes," wrote leading analyst Dan Margalit in the Israel Hayom newspaper, a pro-government free sheet.
Nevertheless, this "should not prompt one to underestimate the long-term strategic objectives of the Iranian regime, which seeks to turn Iran into a regional superpower," he wrote.
The two ships, from Iran's 12th Flotilla, were expected to have crossed the Suez Canal into the Mediterranean in recent days, but were apparently held up after being denied permission to use the waterway.
Most concede that the Iranian vessels, a frigate and a support vessel, do not pose a direct threat to the Jewish state, but by brazenly sailing into Israel's home waters, they are staking Iran's claim to be a regional power.
In a worst-case scenario, analysts warned, the move could lead to the first-ever direct clash between Iranian and Israel forces, escalating a conflict that has, until now, been fought through Iran's proxies in Lebanon and Gaza.
On Feb. 16, Israel's hardline Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman called the move a "provocation" and said the Jewish state would not be able to ignore it for long.
Analysts said Iran appeared to be trying to boost its standing as a major force in the region.
"Iran is sending a political message, asserting its presence and power in the eastern Mediterranean, where it has allies in Syria, Lebanon and Hezbollah," said Ephraim Inbar, a professor of political science at Bar Ilan University.
The vessels are supposed to heading for a Syrian port, where they are due to be stationed for up to a year, Iranian officials said.
The Kharg is a 33,000-ton refueling and support vessel, and the Alvand is a 1,500-ton light patrol frigate, and both are British built, Iran's official Fars news agency said, quoting naval commanders.
The Kharg has a crew of 250 and can carry three helicopters, while the Alvand is armed with torpedoes and anti-ship missiles.
According to Fars, the 12th Flotilla is normally assigned to protect Iranian merchant vessels in the Gulf of Aden, an area plagued by Somali pirates.
"The Iranians are raising the stakes in the poker game against the West, and this time they are doing it vis-a-vis Israel in the Mediterranean theatre," wrote analyst Alex Fishman in the mass-selling Yediot Aharonot newspaper.
Fishman said their presence off the Israeli coast could lead to direct clashes, particularly if they tried to intervene in attempts by activists to breach Israel's naval blockade off the Gaza Strip, or tried to approach Israeli patrols off the Lebanese coast.
"From here on, scenarios could develop that are liable to cause a direct clash between Iran and Israel. This will no longer be with proxies on the Lebanese and Gaza borders, but directly with Iranian forces," he wrote.
Israel sees Tehran as its principal threat after repeated predictions by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of the Jewish state's demise. Israel also accuses Iran of arming and funding Lebanon's Hezbollah militia and Gaza's Hamas rulers.
Israel, which has the Middle East's sole if undeclared nuclear arsenal, suspects Iran of trying to develop atomic weapons under cover of a civilian nuclear program.
Tehran denies that charge and has accused Israel of trying to sabotage its civilian nuclear program and kill its nuclear scientists.
For now, the Iranian ships are still awaiting permission to transit the Suez Canal.
Egyptian and Iranian officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said the ships had requested permission to enter the canal, but had been denied for technical reasons connected to the chaos caused by the political unrest that brought down President Hosni Mubarak last week.
Under international law, Cairo cannot bar the Iranian vessels unless the two countries are officially at war, but Egypt, which has its own tense past with Iran, is also unlikely to want Iranian war ships patrolling in its sphere of influence.
If the ships were to pass through, it would be the first time Iranian naval vessels have done so since the 1979 Iranian revolution, which led to the severing of full diplomatic ties with Egypt.
Others sought to down play the military significance of the move, but said it was still a bold political statement from Tehran.
"The visit poses as no real threat either to Israel or to the moderate Arab regimes," wrote leading analyst Dan Margalit in the Israel Hayom newspaper, a pro-government free sheet.
Nevertheless, this "should not prompt one to underestimate the long-term strategic objectives of the Iranian regime, which seeks to turn Iran into a regional superpower," he wrote.
