Future UAVs Must Be Hardened: USAF Officers

Future unmanned aircraft will have to be designed to fly over hostile areas where an enemy would actively challenge their presence, a panel of three U.S. Air Force officers said.
While today's unmanned aircraft, such as the MQ-1 Predator and MQ-9 Reaper, fly over the uncontested skies of Iraq, Afghanistan or even Libya, tomorrow's wars may see a hostile power jam vulnerable data-links and global positioning system (GPS) signals while sending up fighters to force such planes out of their airspace, the men told an audience at a International Institute of Strategic Studies conference on April 20.

"We must continue to develop systems that are hardened against GPS-denied environments, hardened against comm-out environments, and partially hardened against aerial threats and ground threats," said Air Force Col. Dean Bushey, deputy director of the U.S. Army Joint Unmanned Aircraft Systems Center of Excellence.
Nor can the Air Force take the air bases it operates UAVs out of for granted, he added.
Such bases might come under attack from enemy forces, which would necessitate developing unmanned jets with greater range and persistence to enable such aircraft to operate from outside the range of those potential threats, said Mark Gunzinger, an analyst at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments in Washington.
However, communications could be the deciding factor for future unmanned aircraft.
"Stealth technology is such today that we can make platforms that are much, much more survivable," he said. "But controlling them is going to be a significant problem."
In fact, it might be that for operations inside defended airspace, manned aircraft would be the preferred option until a solution is found, Gunzinger said.
One option is for an aircraft to be preprogrammed with a set route to attack a particular set of targets.
"But you'd be limited in your ability to deal with unplanned circumstances," Gunzinger said. Moving targets would be especially problematic because there would be no way to update the aircraft's target set en route.
Another alternative, Bushey suggested, might be to have the unmanned aircraft act as a "loyal wingman," where it would be led into combat by a manned aircraft.
Gunzinger agreed that the concept might be possible.
"That could be a feasible operational concept where one mother ship would control a number of unmanned platforms, not just for [Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance], but for a range of operations," he said.
Ideally, however, unmanned aircraft would be able to perform missions autonomously inside contested airspace.
Autonomy is necessary because an enemy would almost certainly attack the aircraft's vulnerable communications links, Gunzinger said. However, in any sort of threat environment, an unmanned aircraft would have to have the sensors to detect and avoid incoming threats, he added.
Bushey also emphasized a need for greater autonomy for unmanned aircraft.
However, autonomous aircraft that could independently perform such missions are not currently technologically feasible. Machines are not yet able to automatically recognize targets, nor are machines able to make decisions in a "dynamic" environment, such as air-to-air combat, said Col. James Sculerati, U.S. Special Operations Command's ISR chief. However, many routine tasks such as takeoffs and landings could be automated, Sculerati said.
To build a truly autonomous aircraft would require computing power approaching genuine artificial intelligence, Gunzinger said.
"I don't think we're at a point where we're willing to have systems autonomously engage another system, but we can get to a point where we can have a system get there and then have human control," Bushey added.

Pakistan Tests 'Nuke-Capable' Short-Range Missile

ISLAMABAD - Pakistan yesterday conducted the first official test firing of what it described as a short-range surface-to-surface multitube ballistic missile.
An Inter-Services Press Release statement said the Nasr (Victory) missile could be tipped with "nuclear warheads of appropriate yield with high accuracy," therefore confirming Pakistan's long-assumed tactical nuclear weapons program.

The statement also described it as a "quick response system [which] addresses the need to deter evolving threats."
Nasr is the ninth in the Pakistani Hatf (Vengeance) series of missile systems. Images, and film released by ISPR and Associated Press of Pakistan show it to be a two-round system carried on the Chinese-origin 8x8 high-mobility truck chassis used by the Army's AR1A/A100-E 300mm Multiple Launch Rocket System.
Haris Khan, of the Pakistan Military Consortium think tank, said Nasr answers India's Cold Start doctrine.
"Hatf-IX is a perfect answer to the Indian concept of Cold Start," Khan said. "It establishes that tactical nuclear weapons will be deployed very close to its border with minimum reaction time to counter any armor or mechanized thrust by an enemy into its Pakistani territory."
The Nasr test shows Pakistan can build small nuclear warheads for all kinds of delivery platforms, said Mansoor Ahmed, a lecturer at Quaid-e-Azam University here who specializes in nonconventional weapons and missiles.
"Theoretically, 1 kilogram of weapons-grade plutonium boosted with 4-5 grams of tritium gives a 10-20KT yield, provided the trigger is sophisticated," Ahmed said. "However, the diameter size of Nasr suggests that the warhead would be less than 1 kilogram, and would be of sub-kiloton range, suitable for battlefield use and could be a fission boosted sub-kiloton fission device."Pakistan will now "not accept any cap in plutonium production in the foreseeable future," he said.
Similar in concept to the Russian Iskander, the Nasr has a much shorter range: 60 kilometers, which Ahmed said could be extended.

Pakistan Army Employs Lessons of Taliban Conflict

ISLAMABAD - Pakistan is implementing a wide-ranging modernization program in the wake of lessons learned fighting the Taliban.
The program seeks substantial training changes down to the unit level and improvements in personal protection, weaponry, surveillance capabilities, communication equipment, night vision and thermal image sensors, nonlethal weaponry, and vehicle protection.
Drawing on his experience in the British Army when it was initially deployed on counterinsurgency (COIN) duties in Northern Ireland, analyst Brian Cloughley said retraining and re-equipping soldiers schooled in conventional warfare for such duties took a year.
"This is exactly the same for the Pakistan Army's units on the eastern border," Cloughley said.
The areas he stressed the most were "fitness and, above all, training."
"The training program must include all the obvious things, which of course have not been practiced by units on the eastern border: vehicle anti-ambush drills, long-distance foot patrolling, resupply by helicopter, requiring quick pad construction," he said. "It's a long list, and of course all these things are known. They are, however, dormant. And it takes months for units to learn them." Other aspects of British COIN operations were also relevant to Pakistan efforts, Cloughley said.
For the British, an important consideration was "acquisition of radios capable of working in built-up areas, as well as the wide-open spaces," he said. This appears to have been an early lesson for the Pakistan Army.
A military spokesman said some aspects of the program, specifically communication and surveillance capabilities, have been implemented already, and were tested in last year's Azm-e-Nau/New Resolve military exercise.
Analysts were intrigued by mention of new vehicles, however, and Cloughley said there had to be "analysis of the type of enemy and what tactics are likely to be encountered."
He added, "the emphasis on [improvised explosive devices] is most important, but this has to be balanced besides mobility."
Cloughley did stress that "a balance between expense, perception of the threat and effectiveness" also had to be struck. "There isn't much point in buying multimillion-dollar mine-protected vehicles when they aren't going to see much use," he said.
Talk of new vehicles also led to some confusion. According to the military spokesman, the vehicle in question was actually the indigenous Burraq mine-resistant, ambush-protected vehicle manufactured by state-owned military vehicles producer Heavy Industries Taxila (HIT).
He stated the Burraq had been evaluated by potential overseas customers and that foreign vehicles had not been evaluated by Pakistan, as had been speculated. Burraq fills a long-standing operational requirement, as IEDs have taken a considerable toll. HIT refused to comment on Burraq's service status or foreign evaluation.
Another long-awaited change that predates operations against the Taliban has been the switch to a 5.56mm-caliber rifle. The current 7.62mm Heckler & Koch G3A3 battle rifle was found to be too heavy and cumbersome for the swift, mobile style of operations required.
The G3A3 also was impossible to control in full automatic fire, and there was a requirement for an under-barrel grenade launcher, the use of new holographic sights, plus affixed torches or pointing devices.
State-owned Pakistan Ordnance Factories responded with the G3S, which appears to be a carbine version of its PK8 design, itself a G3 chambered for the NATO 5.56mm round. The company exhibited a mock-up of the G3S at February's IDEX defense exhibition in Dubai but were not able to furnish additional information regarding the carbine when contacted.
More infantry support weapons have been called for, such as automatic grenade launchers. The origin or status of these is not clear and was not clarified by the military. More than one system appears to be in service.
The Detonics division of the Al-Technique Corp. of Pakistan (ATCOP) has in the past exhibited a 40mm automatic grenade launcher at Pakistani defense exhibitions, and this is thought to be in at least limited service.
However, analyst Haris Khan of the Pakistan Military Consortium think tank said foreign automatic grenade launchers have been tested, and of two designs short-listed in 2007, one was South African. This is not the only grenade launcher in service; Khan said the Chinese-built version of the Russian AGS30 was rushed into service and that the launchers have been installed or at least tested on the M113 armored personnel carrier.
These, in addition to additional helicopter-mounted 7.62mm MG3 machine guns and mini-guns, have increased fire support for ground troops, he said.
Though the military spokesman could not expand on the issue, an unusual requirement has been for modern flamethrowers. Khan compared this to the allied experience against the Japanese in World War II.
"Most of the insurgents took clever advantage of the area's terrain. They used caves and dug extensive tunnels to hide in and operate from. The Army lacked any type weapon that could effectively flush out and destroy the insurgents from their hideouts," he said.

S. Korea: North Readying for New Nuclear Test

SEOUL, South Korea - North Korea is ready to conduct another nuclear test if its current approaches for dialogue fail, although there are no current signs of preparations, South Korea's spy chief said April 19.
"Another atomic test is always possible as [North Korea] has various nuclear test sites and construction of [new] sites is underway," National Intelligence Service chief Won Sei-Hoon was quoted as telling a parliamentary intelligence committee.

Won's comments to the closed-door session were quoted by ruling party lawmaker Hwang Jin-Ha.
North Korea conducted its first two nuclear tests in October 2006 and May 2009.
The South's Yonhap news agency reported in February that the North was digging at least two new tunnels at its nuclear test site in apparent preparation for a third atomic detonation.
"I believe North Korea will use military action such as nuclear and missile [tests] to turn the tables if its current tack of dialogue fails," Won said.
Multinational talks on ending the North's nuclear programs in return for diplomatic and economic benefits have been stalled since December 2008.
Pyongyang has expressed interest in restarting them. But Seoul and Washington say it should first show it is serious about disarmament and mend cross-border ties.
The North fueled regional security fears in November by disclosing an apparently functional uranium enrichment plant, which could give it a second way to make atomic bombs in addition to its plutonium stockpile.
Lawmaker Hwang said Won expressed concern over the safety of the North's ageing nuclear facilities at Yongbyon.
"They appear to be inferior, but we cannot say exactly which part is weak. So we're paying attention to this problem," the spy chief was quoted as saying.
Regarding the uranium enrichment plant, South Korean officials have questioned whether Pyongyang can build a facility that meets international safety standards.
Yongbyon for decades has been at the heart of the North's drive for nuclear weapons, with a gas graphite reactor there having produced enough plutonium for possibly six to eight bombs.

France, U.S. Impressed by Brimstone Performance, RAF Official Says

LONDON - French and U.S. air forces are both looking at acquiring the dual-mode Brimstone missile used by the Royal Air Force, according to Britain's Assistant Chief of the Air Staff.

The Brimstone missile was developed by The Boeing Co. and MBDA. (The Boeing Co.)

Speaking April 19 at an Air Power Association dinner, Air Vice Marshall Baz North said the Boeing/MBDA-developed weapon used on RAF Tornado aircraft in Afghanistan and now Libya has caught the attention of both of Britain's premier allies.

The "dual-mode Brimstone is now being sought by the U.S. and France," North said.
The weapon was developed as an anti-armor missile, but upgrades allow it to hit fleeting targets like terrorists on motorbikes or pickup trucks.

Canada: No More Jets to Libya Before Election

OTTAWA - Canada will not consider increasing its forces helping NATO to pressure Libyan strongman Moammar Gadhafi to quit until after a May 2 election, the prime minister said April 15.
"We continue to discuss this with allies, but we've been clear, we are not putting Canadian soldiers on the ground, and in terms of requests for additional participation, we will not make those kinds of commitments during an election campaign," Prime Minister Stephen Harper said during a campaign stop.

"To make any kind of additional commitment would require the parliament of Canada to be sitting and to be discussing these matters."
Nearly a month of coalition strikes have so far failed to shift the balance of power in Libya.
The French and British called for allies to contribute more jets to the mission, but the United States has resisted pressure to return its warplanes to the frontline in Libya.
Washington pulled back around 50 combat planes from Libyan operations last week after handing over control of the mission to NATO, although since then they took part in some missions to take out Gadhafi's air defense systems.
Currently, only six out of 28 nations are conducting air strikes, while France and Britain carry out half of them. The other half are conducted by Belgium, Denmark, Norway and Canada.

95 U.S. Programs Show $64B Increase in Costs

The Pentagon is expected to revise its total program cost estimate for the recently restructured F-35 Joint Strike Fighter effort next month, according to a Defense Department information paper.

The F-35 Joint Strike Fighter is one the programs the Pentagon is expected to revise cost estimates for after a review of 95 major acquisitions programs. (CHERIE CULLEN / U.S. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE)

This comes as the Pentagon told Congress today that its latest review of 95 major acquisition programs showed $64 billion in increases, or 4 percent, over already projected program price tags. DoD also told lawmakers that three of its programs - Chemical Demilitarization-Assembled Chemical Weapons Alternatives; Expeditionary Fighting Vehicle (EFV); RQ-4 Global Hawk - suffered, so-called, "critical" Nunn-McCurdy breaches.

Four others programs - the C-27J Joint Cargo Aircraft; Increment 1 of the Early-Infantry Brigade Combat Team (E-IBCT); Joint Land Attack Cruise Missile Defense Elevated Netted Sensor System (JLENS); and National Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) - suffered "significant" breaches.
The majority of the breaches were caused by quantity changes. For instance, the Pentagon canceled the EFV program, so unit costs have soared because DoD will not buy any vehicles but has already invested billions of dollars in research and development. The same is true of the C-27J. The Air Force and Army were supposed to collectively buy 78 aircraft, however, the Army bowed out of the program and the air service only plans to purchase 38. The Army dramatically reduced the buy in the E-IBCT program and the Pentagon canceled the NPOESS program.
Pentagon officials have been aware of issues within the Global Hawk program for awhile. Last year, acquisition officials initiated a major review of the program in June. The Air Force began its own review in December and declared the breach on April 6.
The program's cost growth is primarily due to quantity reduction, spares and sensor depot standup, diminishing manufacturing sources, and ground station and communications system modernization, according to the information paper.
Engineering problems, schedule slips and the addition of new requirements have contributed to the JLENS program breach. The Chemical Demilitarization program breach is attributed to design changes, construction costs and increased staffing and labor costs.
The previous two Selected Acquisition Reports pegged the F-35's total program cost at $328 billion. Since then, some cost estimates have put the program's overall price tag at around $380 billion. Last year, Defense Secretary Robert Gates ordered a major review of the effort, leading the program to slow production and focus on development.
Officials will now develop a new program baseline next month. After that, DoD will prepare an updated Selected Acquisition Report that will "provide higher fidelity unit cost data for the F-35 program," the information paper states.
The Nunn-McCurdy statute requires the Pentagon to notify Congress when a program's cost has risen 15 percent above its original baseline estimate. The statute calls for a program's termination once costs exceed 25 percent of the original estimate unless the defense secretary deems the system essential to national security, there are no alternates that will provide equal or greater capability, new program acquisition costs are reasonable, and the management structure for such a system is adequate to manage and control program costs.
A significant breach occurs at the 15 percent threshold and critical at the 25 percent level.
The Pentagon attributes the other 89 programs' cost increases primarily to a rise in planned quantities.