Ukraine Secretly Ramps Up Ties With NATO: Report

MOSCOW - Ukraine is ramping up cooperation with NATO, dealing a blow to Moscow's hopes that its neighbor would align itself more closely to Russia under President Viktor Yanukovych, a report said Tuesday.
The Kommersant Ukraine daily newspaper, citing a secret document on Ukraine's program with NATO for 2011, said Yanukovych sought closer ties with the bloc even more earnestly than his openly pro-Western predecessor, Viktor Yushchenko.

The dramatic turnabout in Kiev's foreign policy comes despite Ukraine last year cementing in law its non-aligned status, and amid disappointment over terms and conditions of rapprochement with the Kremlin, the paper said.
The confidential document approved earlier this year includes a schedule of 64 bilateral events, the newspaper said, adding that the two sides were set to discuss such sensitive issues as Ukraine's energy security, missile defense, and the future of Russia's Black Sea fleet based in Crimea.
Two meetings scheduled for this month are set to address basic principles and strategy of Ukraine's foreign policy.
Asked about the report June 21, Yanukovych said that Ukraine remains a neutral country. The Ukrainian president is visiting Strasbourg, France, the home of the European Parliament.
"Our position remains unchanged: We have been and remain a non-aligned country, just as is dictated by our law," Yanukovych said in comments released by his office.
He added that Ukraine "has not and does not plan" to take any part in the new NATO missile defense shield for Europe, which Russia fears is aimed at its own defenses.
Yanukovych has worked hard to improve relations between Moscow and Kiev since defeating the leaders of the pro-Western Orange Revolution in presidential elections last year.
Soon afterward, he signed a landmark deal with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to keep Russia's Black Sea Fleet based in Crimea at least until 2042, in exchange for a 30 percent discount on Russian gas exports to its neighbor.
But over the past few months, Kiev has grown disillusioned with the prospects of closer ties with Moscow, which it says has tried to strong-arm Ukraine into joining a Russian-led customs union and threatened it with sanctions, the newspaper said.
"Moscow wants us to be in its orbit and pay for that, too," a high-ranking source in the Ukrainian government told Kommersant. "It's not us who are pulling away from Russia. It is pushing us away."
Earlier this month, Russia protested the arrival in the Black Sea of a U.S. Navy cruiser equipped with a ballistic missile defense system. The ship will take part in naval exercises with Ukraine, but Russia said it is a threat to its national security.
Ukraine's foreign ministry shot back, saying the exercises did not present any "real or potential threat" for the countries of the Black Sea region.

India, China Resume Frozen Military Relations

NEW DELHI - India and China resumed military exchanges that were halted in July 2010 after Beijing refused to provide a visa to a top Indian commander intending to visit China.
Even as an eight-member military team begins six-day military exchanges in Beijing, analysts here say, the resumption of military ties has not altered the threat perception about China among military planners.

"The resumption of military ties between the two countries is merely confined to routine exchange of military personnel, or a military exercise. Defense planners here are, in fact, very anxious about the buildup of Chinese weaponry and equipment," said Mahindra Singh, retired Indian Army major general and defense analyst.
India is redrawing its requirements of weapons and equipment so that it can meet the challenges from the eastern front, Indian Defence Ministry sources said.
India and China, which fought a brief battle in 1962 over a territorial dispute, have yet to reach any settlement despite more than a dozen rounds of border talks.
Meanwhile, the Indian Navy has drawn a plan to spend over $2 billion to upgrade the Karwar naval base, which will be home port for the aircraft carrier Admiral Gorshokov - to be renamed INS Vikramaditya - which is being procured from Russia, and also the six French-built Scorpene submarines.
The improvements at Karwar are seen as a response to Chinese warships using Pakistan's Gwadar port.

Western Jetmakers Vie For Asian Contracts

TAIPEI - As Western defense budgets crash, East Asian democracies could spend $23 billion within the decade on new fighter aircraft and upgrades, providing lucrative markets for European and U.S. aerospace and defense companies.

Japan released a request for proposals (RfP) in April for 40 fighters for its F-X program. The Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) and Eurofighter Typhoon are fighting over the $4 billion deal. Bids are due in August with a contract award by the end of the year. The F-X will replace the Mitsubishi F-4EJ Kai Phantoms due for retirement in 2015.

South Korea is expected to issue an RfP in January for its F-X Phase 3 program. While 60 aircraft likely will be involved, it may come in two tranches, with the first being 40. The Boeing F-15, Typhoon and F-35 are already positioning themselves for the $9 billion deal. The FX Phase 3 will replace aging F-4 Phantom and F-5 Tiger fighters. The RfP is expected for release in January.

Taiwan is an exception. Due to Chinese pressure, the U.S. ignored a 2006 request for 66 F-16C/D Block 50/52 fighters for $5.5 billion. Taiwan also awaits a reply to a $4.5 billion request for an upgrade package for older F-16A/B Block 20 fighters in 2009.

With Western defense budgets under review and increasing pressure to pursue new market opportunities, European and U.S. combat aircraft manufacturers are "vigorously" engaging the East Asian fighter market, said Doug Barrie, senior fellow for military aerospace, U.K.-based International Institute for Strategic Studies.

"While Japan and South Korea have traditionally been U.S. combat aircraft customers, the present round of acquisition programs offers Europe an opportunity to break into the market," Barrie said.

European companies face an "uphill battle" to wrestle control of the fighter market from the U.S., which has "locked in markets" for fighter sales to the region for decades, said Richard Bitzinger, a defense industry analyst at the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Singapore.

"The big question will be if the Europeans can break into this market," Bitzinger said. If not, there is future potential for European aerospace companies to participate in indigenous fifth-generation fighter programs in Japan and South Korea, but in terms of new fighter sales, "these countries are still owned by the USA," Bitzinger said.

Barrie said the Typhoon had its best shot at winning in South Korea, despite the fact Boeing won both F-X Phase 1 and 2 with 60 F-15K Slam Eagle fighters. Boeing might propose the stealthy F-15 Silent Eagle in an attempt to edge the Typhoon out of the competition, he said.

In Japan and South Korea, there is a major effort by the competitors to provide local production opportunities.

"The fighter choice in both countries will send a political signal as to the extent to which, if any, South Korea or Japan wants to begin to build a substantial defense-industrial relationship with their respective relationships with Washington," Barrie said.

Japan's F-X program experienced delays over an intense Japanese lobbying effort begun in 2007 to force Washington to release exports of the F-22 Raptor, but the U.S. Congress blocked the effort. After the F-22 rejection, Tokyo set its sights on the F-35, only to see the JSF effort dogged by delays and cost overruns, which postponed the F-X RfP last year.

Tokyo highlighted its interest in stealth by pursuing an indigenous fifth-generation fighter program. Now, Japan is "using their own fifth-generation fighter [TFX] as a bargaining chip" in the competition, but it is still in the research-and-development stage and "hideously expensive," Barrie said.

Japan is desperate to secure local manufacturing options for the F-X, but it is prohibitively expensive for only 40 aircraft. Manufacturing costs could be driven down by the procurement of more fighters to replace F-15Js, increasing the number of F-X fighters to more than 100 and lowering manufacturing costs.

Unless the F-X fighters are produced in Japan, the local fighter manufacturing industry faces dire straits. Japan's only remaining fighter production line, the Mitsubishi F-2, will end in September.

There are also budget concerns after Japan's devastating triple disaster - earthquake, tsunami and a nuclear power plant crisis - and many wonder how the estimated $300 billion price tag for the catastrophe will affect the F-X budget.

Cost issues could push Japan to select the Super Hornet or the Typhoon. Eurofighter officials have been promoting the Typhoon as a flexible, inexpensive alternative to the F/A-18 and F-35. A European industry source in Tokyo said technical restrictions hamper F-35 exports, while Eurofighter has "no black box policy," which means wider options for Japanese industry participation.

Yet the Japan-U.S. military alliance and pressure to procure a U.S. fighter may keep Tokyo from picking a European fighter.

Taiwan's request for new F-16C/Ds is seen as a follow-on request for an earlier procurement of F-16A/Bs in the 1990s. Despite Beijing protests, the U.S. Congress recently called for the White House to release new fighters and upgrade packages, including a request for a follow-on F-16 trainer program for Taiwan's 21st Tactical Fighter Squadron based at Luke Air Force Base, Ariz. In dollar amounts alone, as the U.S. economy declines, increased pressure on the White House to release the F-16s might be too great to withstand.

"In the case of Taiwan, irrespective of posturing on the part of Beijing, the delivery of F-16 Block 52s should proceed," Barrie said.

Taiwan bought $16.5 billion worth of U.S.­built arms and equipment from 2007 to 2010. Sales included 12 P-3C Orion Maritime Patrol Aircraft, 30 AH-64D Apache Longbow attack helicopters and 60 UH-60M Black Hawk utility helicopters. Taiwan has requirements for signal intelligence aircraft, attack jet trainers, basic aircraft trainers and UAVs.

Chinese Avionics Advances Ripple Throughout Asia

ISLAMABAD - China's avionics industry is closing the gap with other avionics producers, with benefits flowing to Pakistan and new challenges emerging for the U.S.

Chinese aircraft are helping Pakistan maintain conventional deterrence toward India as New Delhi pursues cutting-edge technology to revamp its airpower. As a result, said Usman Shabbir, of the Pakistan Military Consortium think tank, the new "JF-17 Block II [combat aircraft] may see a Chinese AESA [active electronically scanned array] radar along with an IRST [infrared search and track] sensor, and an even better ECM [electronic countermeasures] suite."

Wider advances by China's aviation industry would result in "greater use of composites to reduce the overall airframe weight" for the JF-17 Block II, and also a thrust vectoring control engine; though Shabbir conceded the latter "has never been officially confirmed."

Analyst Kaiser Tufail said an AESA radar is "the way to go," and that "all future [radar] acquisitions or retrofits would be AESA, whether mechanically scanned or phased-array type."

Tufail said the current JF-17 radar, a variant of which is fitted to the Chinese Chengdu J-10 combat jet, is an interim solution "because the [Pakistan Air Force] had been unable to find a radar vendor who could sell cutting-edge technology at an affordable price."

Tufail said Pakistan's acquisition of advanced Chinese avionics should not be seen through the prism of Indian programs, such as the Medium Multirole Combat Aircraft program. Rather, he said, it should be seen as Pakistan's effort to keep pace with modern weaponry.

And China benefits from its collaboration with Pakistan.

"Traditionally, the Chinese aviation industry has found an excellent test bed in the PAF, and their products have been, and can be, proven in ways that are not possible with [China's Air Force], due to limitations of comparative analysis in truly operational scenarios and with respect to Western equipment that PAF operates," he said.

As a result, a "Chinese AESA radar would, therefore, be a synergetic success in partnership with Pakistan," he said.

However, it is unknown whether the new JF-17 Block II radars are variants of those fitted to the improved J-10B. If that is the case, analyst and Chinese specialist Andrei Chang said the new radar is unlikely to be an AESA type.

"The phased-array radar testing on the J-10B is a passive model," he said.

Chang said he does not think the Chinese have developed "a useful AESA radar for the JF-17 and J-10B," but they could in the future.

"I know they are researching AESA radars, but it takes time," he said.

China's technological advances give potential adversaries cause for concern, Tufail said.

"As in many other fields like space and information technology, China is making a mark in major ways which impacts geostrategic and security issues," he said. "Technological developments like AESA radars would, thus, certainly have a bearing on the comfort levels of countries that have an adversarial relationship with China."

The potential threat posed by Chinese advances in avionics is an issue Carlo Kopp of the Air Power Australia think tank has tried to raise.

"Chinese technology is a mix of reverse-engineered Western and Russian designs, and some often very good indigenous ideas," he said. The danger this poses is clear.

"As the Chinese advance and proliferate these products, they are increasingly narrowing the range of environments in which Western air forces and navies can operate," Kopp said.

CHINESE DEFENSES

"Today, only the U.S. F-22A [stealth fighter] and B-2A [stealth bomber] can penetrate Chinese airspace with impunity," he said. "All other Western designs, including the intended F-35 [Joint Strike Fighter] and existing F/A-18E, would suffer prohibitive loss rates" to surface-to-air missiles, he said.

Kopp's opinion of the F-35 is perhaps surprising, but he said he believes China's investment in more maneuverable aircraft will expose severe weaknesses.

"The notion that having a good AESA [radar] can overcome kinematic performance limitations in a design is predicated on the idea that your missiles are 100 percent effective in long-range combat," he said. "The evidence shows otherwise for the AIM-120 AMRAAM."

The approach that says "let the missiles do the turning," rather than the aircraft, "is a mantra in the F-35 and F/A-18 camps," Kopp said. "Unfortunately, it is wishful thinking by folks promoting obsolete designs. The mathematics and physics of aerial combat do not support this proposition."

Therefore, the strategic impact of China's advances will be substantial and exacerbated by poor long-term decision-making by the U.S., Kopp said.

"As China wholly recapitalizes its fleets, and exports these products, there will be an inevitable strategic impact, as the U.S. has been reluctant to export the F-22, has chopped F-22 production funds, and has no new products in the pipeline capable of robustly surviving against top-end Chinese products in combat," he said.

Kopp also blames the reluctance by Washington to share high-technology weaponry with allies that could check China's advance.

He singles out Defense Secretary Robert Gates for making decisions that will produce "a dangerous long-term strategic environment in Asia as China introduces and proliferates advanced technology, and the U.S. chooses for ideological reasons to no longer invest in advanced air power."

RQ-4B Variant Makes Combat Debut Early

PARIS - For the second year in a row, Northrop Grumman officials found themselves at a global air show explaining why the Global Hawk UAV wasn't performing up to Pentagon expectations.

ARTIST'S CONCEPTION OF autonomous aerial refueling between RQ-4 Global Hawks planned for late summer or fall. (Northrop Grumman)

In the wake of a DoD test report that noted deficiencies in nine areas, Northrop's top Global Hawk salesman, Edward Walby, took to a chalet podium at Paris Air Show 2011 to give the company's side of the story.

"When you have a system designed by engineers, made by a manufacturer, tested by evaluators, and certified by administrators, then you put it in the hands of troops, you get an entirely different picture," Walby said.

He was referring to the Global Hawk's unexpected deployments in March - to Japan to support the post-tsunami relief efforts, and to Libya to help U.S. and NATO operations against government troops. The operations catapulted the latest RQ-4B model, the Block 30, into real-world operations, where the aircraft produced performances that looked much better than the IOT&E report, Walby said.

For example, the testers watched the RQ-4 fly 19 sorties over 41 days, with mission effectiveness of 57 percent. But in "March Madness," as Northrop dubbed the intense first month of Libya/Japan ops, the UAVs flew 114 sorties in 45 days with a 92.1 percent mission effectiveness, Walby said. (See Northrop's Global Hawk briefing slides.)

That's a level of performance far beyond the expected for an aircraft that hasn't reached its formal acceptance into service.

"We're not supposed to be doing that yet," he said.

What made the difference? One major thing was simply the passage of time, Walby said. The IOT&E testers looked at aircraft with the mid-2010 equipment and software builds. Since then, Northrop has fixed a leaky oil pump and improved the software in various ways.

One Block 10 aircraft was aloft a total of 379 hours in March - more than half of the hours in the month. Over Japan, two Global Hawks passed in the air, demonstrating the first on-station swap. The post-tsunami ops also saw the operation debut of the Block 30 Global Hawk, whose 3,000-pound payload includes electro-optical/infrared cameras, radar, moving-target indicators, and signals intelligence gear.

Next up for the suddenly hyperactive Global Hawk?

■ Block 30 is slated to be declared initially operational in July.

■ The first Euro Hawk, now finishing up testing at Edwards AFP, Calif., is slated to fly over to Germany later this summer.

■ Two Global Hawks are to attempt the world's first autonomous aerial refueling between UAVs in late summer or early autumn.

China's First Aircraft Carrier To Begin Sea Trials

HONG KONG - China's first aircraft carrier - a remodeled Soviet-era vessel - will go on sea trials next week, a report said June 21, amid escalating tensions in the South China Sea.

China's top military official reportedly confirmed earlier this month that Beijing is building a huge aircraft carrier, the first acknowledgement of the ship's existence from China's secretive defense program.

The sources said the test has been expedited in view of rising tensions in the South China Sea - home to two potentially oil-rich archipelagos, the Paracels and Spratlys - in recent weeks.

The Hong Kong Commercial Daily, which broke the story of the vessel's confirmation, quoted unnamed military sources saying the carrier will go on sea trials on July 1 but will not be officially launched until October 2012.

China's military "hopes it will show the strength of the Chinese maritime forces to deter other nations, which are eyeing the South China Sea, in order to calm tensions," the sources said.

They added that the sea trial date was also picked to celebrate the 90th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party but noted that factors such as weather could affect the planned test run.

China's military did not immediately respond to an AFP request for comment.

Tensions between Beijing and other rival claimants to the strategically vital South China Sea have heightened recently.

China has claimed mineral rights around the disputed Spratly Islands in the South China Sea and argued that foreign navies cannot sail through the area without Beijing's permission.

In September, Japan and China also clashed over the disputed Senkaku Islands, known as the Diaoyu Islands in China, located in the East China Sea.

But Chinese officials have previously said that its first aircraft carrier would not pose a threat to other nations, in accordance with Beijing's defensive military strategy.

The Chinese aircraft carrier plan was confirmed when the chief of the General Staff of the People's Liberation Army, Chen Bingde, confirmed the ship's existence in an interview with the Hong Kong paper.

He said the 990-foot former Soviet carrier, originally called the Varyag, was being overhauled. The ship is currently based in the northeast port of Dalian.

An expert on China's military has reportedly said the carrier would be used for training and as a model for a future indigenously-built ship.

The Varyag was originally built for the Soviet navy but construction was interrupted by the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.

The PLA - the largest army in the world - is hugely secretive about its defense programs, which benefit from a large military budget boosted by the nation's runaway economic growth.

Romania Summons Iranian Envoy Over Missile Remarks

BUCHAREST - Iran's ambassador to Bucharest was summoned by Romanian authorities on June 20 to explain claims in an interview that U.S. plans to build a missile shield were directed at Russia.

"Bajador Aminian Jazi was summoned to the Foreign Affairs Ministry and asked for clarifications," a news release said. "The Romanian side stressed that such statements are not constructive. The system is a purely defensive one and cannot therefore be aimed against any country."

In an interview with HotNews website, the diplomat had said that Iran did not see the deployment of U.S. missile interceptors in Romania as a threat.

"We believe the anti-missile shield is not aimed against us. We don't have a nuclear program targeting any other country, our missiles are defensive only," he said.

However, he added, "you are importing Russian gas. I think that in the future, given also this anti-missile system, you will have some problems with them."

Jazi said this project dated back to 1984, when it was drawn up "to annihilate the Soviet Union's supremacy."

"Yes, [it is directed] against Russia," he added.

Bucharest and Washington last month concluded talks on the deployment of 24 U.S. missile interceptors at a former airbase in south Romania, insisting on the project's purely defensive purpose.

But Russia said it would seek legal guarantees that the shield was not directed against its strategic nuclear forces.