Obama: U.S. to Pull 30,000 Out of Afghanistan by Summer 2012

WASHINGTON - U.S. President Barack Obama on June 22 ordered all 33,000 U.S. so-called surge troops home from Afghanistan by next summer, declared the beginning of the end of the war and vowed to turn to "nation building" at home.

U.S. President Barack Obama speaks June 22 in the White House. (Pool photo via Agence France-Presse)

In a pivotal moment for U.S. national security strategy, Obama also signaled in a 13-minute primetime speech that the United States would no longer try to build a "perfect" Afghanistan from a nation ravaged by generations of violence.

"We take comfort in knowing that the tide of war is receding," Obama said in the East Room of the White House in an address blanketing U.S. television networks at a time of rising discontent on the war.
"Even as there will be dark days ahead in Afghanistan, the light of a secure peace can be seen in the distance. These long wars will come to a responsible end," Obama said.
The president's speech came as domestic political support fades for the war following the killing of al-Qaida chief Osama bin Laden by Navy SEALs on May 2, and as Washington backs fragile Afghan reconciliation talks with the Taliban.
His decision on troop numbers amounted to a rejection of appeals from the Pentagon for a slower drawdown to safeguard gains against the Taliban and to allow a new counterinsurgency mission to unfold in eastern Afghanistan.
The president said that he would, as promised, begin the U.S. withdrawal next month and that 10,000 of the more than 30,000 troops he sent to war in an escalation of the conflict in 2009 would be home this year.
A further 23,000 surge troops will be withdrawn by next summer, and more yet-to-be announced drawdowns will continue, until Afghan forces assume security responsibility in 2014.
"This is the beginning - but not the end - of our effort to wind down this war," Obama said.
"We will have to do the hard work of keeping the gains that we have made, while we draw down our forces and transition responsibility for security to the Afghan government."
Although Obama said the tide of war was receding, there will still be more than 65,000 troops in Afghanistan when he asks Americans to give him a second term in November 2012.
Obama also argued that his policy of escalating the war against the Taliban and al-Qaida had forged substantial progress and had allowed him to commence troop withdrawals from a "position of strength."
He said that documents seized from bin Laden's compound in Pakistan showed that al-Qaida was under "enormous strain."
"Bin Laden expressed concern that has been unable to effectively replace senior terrorists that have been killed, and that al-Qaida has failed in its effort to portray America as a nation at war with Islam - thereby draining more widespread support," he said.
U.S. Army Gen. David Petraeus, the commander of NATO and U.S. troops in Afghanistan, and top Pentagon officials had asked for a slower drawdown through summer 2012 to allow them to solidify gains in southern Afghanistan and to mount counter-insurgency operations in eastern districts.
Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., said Obama's decision, represented an "unnecessary risk" and noted Petraeus and Defense Secretary Robert Gates had recommended a "more modest withdrawal."
But Obama's timetable may be too slow for critics who want faster withdrawals from a war launched 10 years ago to oust the Taliban after it offered al-Qaida a haven before and after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.
Some of Obama's fellow Democrats and some Republicans are demanding a faster U.S. exit from Afghanistan, and questioning the huge $10 billion-per-month cost of the conflict at a time of deep fiscal pain.
Obama argued the surge had made progress towards key objectives he laid down at the start of the escalation, namely: reversing Taliban momentum, disrupting and dismantling al-Qaida and building Afghan forces towards an eventual assumption of security duties.
One official said the U.S. operation against al-Qaida in Afghanistan and Pakistan tribal regions had "exceeded our expectations," saying 20 of the group's top 30 leaders, including bin Laden, had been killed in the last year.
Administration aides also rejected criticism that Obama's decision would put recent gains in danger and increase the chances that Afghanistan will slip back into an abyss of deep violence.
Obama also placed the Afghan mission in the context of his wider foreign policy and war strategy, arguing he has removed 100,000 troops from Iraq and will oversee the promised full withdrawal by the end of this year.
He announced that a NATO summit to review progress on Afghanistan will take place in his hometown of Chicago in May 2012, alongside the G8 summit of industrialized nations.

India May Buy Honeywell Engine for Jaguars

NEW DELHI - The Indian Defence Ministry is considering a proposal by the Indian Air Force to order 280 Honeywell F125N engines via the U.S. Foreign Military Sales route. That would make the U.S. company the winner of the $2 billion tender to supply engines for the Air Force's Jaguar fighter aircraft.
The procurement process for Jaguar engines, floated in 2008, was halted and reduced to a single vendor when British competitor Rolls-Royce withdrew from the program early this year.

The Defence Ministry is considering the Air Force's proposal as retendering the program would delay the upgrade of the British-built Jaguars, something which the Indian Air Force does not want, ministry sources said.
The ministry as a practice does not place orders in single-vendor competitions, but it will make an exception here as the Air Force has demanded that higher-thrust engines be made available as soon as possible for its 130 Jaguars .
Honeywell's F125N is a 43.8 kilo Newton (kN) thrust engine. Rolls-Royce, whose Adour Mk811 (32.5 kN) presently powers the Jaguars, had offered its Adour Mk821 turbofan.
The British engine maker pulled out of the competition because it could not meet the requirements set forth in the request for proposals, sources said.
A Rolls-Royce executive said at the time that the company was in competition only to upgrade the Jaguar's existing Rolls-Royce engine, not to re-engine the aircraft.
The Indian Air Force wants to replace the Jaguar's Adour engine with a higher-thrust engine that would allow improvements to the Jaguar's mission performance, especially in medium- and high-level sortie profiles; undertake missions that are not possible with the existing engine; reduce pilot workload; and cut maintenance costs, an Air Force official said.
As the Jaguar, which is being used for strike missions, has gotten heavier because of added capabilities, the Adour engine's lack of power has become a serious issue, the service official said.
State-owned Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. (HAL) already has ties with Rolls Royce but could also work with Honeywell to re-engine the Indian Jaguars, a HAL official said.
The Air Force bought the Jaguars in 1978 for deep strike missions, and HAL began licensed production of the aircraft in the 1980s.
HAL has also upgraded of some Jaguars with avionics from French company Sextant and Israeli company Elta

U.S. Navy UAV Crashes In Recon Mission Over Libya

A U.S. Navy unmanned helicopter crashed while flying a reconnaissance mission over Libya on June 21, Navy and NATO officials said.
At 7:20 a.m. local time, the MQ-8B Fire Scout, which was flying over Libya's central coast, lost contact with a command center and crashed.

It is unclear exactly from where the unmanned helicopter was being controlled, where it was attached, or where it flew from. The Navy referred inquiries to NATO. NATO would not provide details about the aircraft's origin or operators. NATO, for its part, would only say that it was an unmanned aircraft that crashed on the coast and that an investigation is underway.
NATO has been using such craft to build up a "knowledge base," according to an Operation Unified Protector spokesman. NATO has used "a number of intelligence, surveillance, [and] reconnaissance platforms ranging from the whole spectrum available" including drones, since the organization began leading operations March 31, Royal Air Force Wing Commander Mike Bracken said at a news briefing in Naples, Italy.
The crash marked the first military hardware loss since NATO took over operations, and it was the second time the U.S. lost an aircraft in Libya. A U.S. Air Force F-15 Strike Eagle crashed on March 21, when the campaign was led by American, British and French forces. Crew members safely ejected and were rescued.
There have been previous control problems with Northrop Grumman's Fire Scout. During an Aug. 2 test flight from Naval Air Station Patuxent River, Md. operators lost their communication link to the aircraft. The unmanned helicopter flew for around 30 minutes toward Washington before entering restricted airspace. While the aircraft was around 40 miles outside the district, operators switched control to another ground station and regained command of the aircraft before directing it to Webster Field in southern Maryland. Navy officials blamed a software problem but said they developed a fix.

Ukraine Secretly Ramps Up Ties With NATO: Report

MOSCOW - Ukraine is ramping up cooperation with NATO, dealing a blow to Moscow's hopes that its neighbor would align itself more closely to Russia under President Viktor Yanukovych, a report said Tuesday.
The Kommersant Ukraine daily newspaper, citing a secret document on Ukraine's program with NATO for 2011, said Yanukovych sought closer ties with the bloc even more earnestly than his openly pro-Western predecessor, Viktor Yushchenko.

The dramatic turnabout in Kiev's foreign policy comes despite Ukraine last year cementing in law its non-aligned status, and amid disappointment over terms and conditions of rapprochement with the Kremlin, the paper said.
The confidential document approved earlier this year includes a schedule of 64 bilateral events, the newspaper said, adding that the two sides were set to discuss such sensitive issues as Ukraine's energy security, missile defense, and the future of Russia's Black Sea fleet based in Crimea.
Two meetings scheduled for this month are set to address basic principles and strategy of Ukraine's foreign policy.
Asked about the report June 21, Yanukovych said that Ukraine remains a neutral country. The Ukrainian president is visiting Strasbourg, France, the home of the European Parliament.
"Our position remains unchanged: We have been and remain a non-aligned country, just as is dictated by our law," Yanukovych said in comments released by his office.
He added that Ukraine "has not and does not plan" to take any part in the new NATO missile defense shield for Europe, which Russia fears is aimed at its own defenses.
Yanukovych has worked hard to improve relations between Moscow and Kiev since defeating the leaders of the pro-Western Orange Revolution in presidential elections last year.
Soon afterward, he signed a landmark deal with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to keep Russia's Black Sea Fleet based in Crimea at least until 2042, in exchange for a 30 percent discount on Russian gas exports to its neighbor.
But over the past few months, Kiev has grown disillusioned with the prospects of closer ties with Moscow, which it says has tried to strong-arm Ukraine into joining a Russian-led customs union and threatened it with sanctions, the newspaper said.
"Moscow wants us to be in its orbit and pay for that, too," a high-ranking source in the Ukrainian government told Kommersant. "It's not us who are pulling away from Russia. It is pushing us away."
Earlier this month, Russia protested the arrival in the Black Sea of a U.S. Navy cruiser equipped with a ballistic missile defense system. The ship will take part in naval exercises with Ukraine, but Russia said it is a threat to its national security.
Ukraine's foreign ministry shot back, saying the exercises did not present any "real or potential threat" for the countries of the Black Sea region.

India, China Resume Frozen Military Relations

NEW DELHI - India and China resumed military exchanges that were halted in July 2010 after Beijing refused to provide a visa to a top Indian commander intending to visit China.
Even as an eight-member military team begins six-day military exchanges in Beijing, analysts here say, the resumption of military ties has not altered the threat perception about China among military planners.

"The resumption of military ties between the two countries is merely confined to routine exchange of military personnel, or a military exercise. Defense planners here are, in fact, very anxious about the buildup of Chinese weaponry and equipment," said Mahindra Singh, retired Indian Army major general and defense analyst.
India is redrawing its requirements of weapons and equipment so that it can meet the challenges from the eastern front, Indian Defence Ministry sources said.
India and China, which fought a brief battle in 1962 over a territorial dispute, have yet to reach any settlement despite more than a dozen rounds of border talks.
Meanwhile, the Indian Navy has drawn a plan to spend over $2 billion to upgrade the Karwar naval base, which will be home port for the aircraft carrier Admiral Gorshokov - to be renamed INS Vikramaditya - which is being procured from Russia, and also the six French-built Scorpene submarines.
The improvements at Karwar are seen as a response to Chinese warships using Pakistan's Gwadar port.

Western Jetmakers Vie For Asian Contracts

TAIPEI - As Western defense budgets crash, East Asian democracies could spend $23 billion within the decade on new fighter aircraft and upgrades, providing lucrative markets for European and U.S. aerospace and defense companies.

Japan released a request for proposals (RfP) in April for 40 fighters for its F-X program. The Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) and Eurofighter Typhoon are fighting over the $4 billion deal. Bids are due in August with a contract award by the end of the year. The F-X will replace the Mitsubishi F-4EJ Kai Phantoms due for retirement in 2015.

South Korea is expected to issue an RfP in January for its F-X Phase 3 program. While 60 aircraft likely will be involved, it may come in two tranches, with the first being 40. The Boeing F-15, Typhoon and F-35 are already positioning themselves for the $9 billion deal. The FX Phase 3 will replace aging F-4 Phantom and F-5 Tiger fighters. The RfP is expected for release in January.

Taiwan is an exception. Due to Chinese pressure, the U.S. ignored a 2006 request for 66 F-16C/D Block 50/52 fighters for $5.5 billion. Taiwan also awaits a reply to a $4.5 billion request for an upgrade package for older F-16A/B Block 20 fighters in 2009.

With Western defense budgets under review and increasing pressure to pursue new market opportunities, European and U.S. combat aircraft manufacturers are "vigorously" engaging the East Asian fighter market, said Doug Barrie, senior fellow for military aerospace, U.K.-based International Institute for Strategic Studies.

"While Japan and South Korea have traditionally been U.S. combat aircraft customers, the present round of acquisition programs offers Europe an opportunity to break into the market," Barrie said.

European companies face an "uphill battle" to wrestle control of the fighter market from the U.S., which has "locked in markets" for fighter sales to the region for decades, said Richard Bitzinger, a defense industry analyst at the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Singapore.

"The big question will be if the Europeans can break into this market," Bitzinger said. If not, there is future potential for European aerospace companies to participate in indigenous fifth-generation fighter programs in Japan and South Korea, but in terms of new fighter sales, "these countries are still owned by the USA," Bitzinger said.

Barrie said the Typhoon had its best shot at winning in South Korea, despite the fact Boeing won both F-X Phase 1 and 2 with 60 F-15K Slam Eagle fighters. Boeing might propose the stealthy F-15 Silent Eagle in an attempt to edge the Typhoon out of the competition, he said.

In Japan and South Korea, there is a major effort by the competitors to provide local production opportunities.

"The fighter choice in both countries will send a political signal as to the extent to which, if any, South Korea or Japan wants to begin to build a substantial defense-industrial relationship with their respective relationships with Washington," Barrie said.

Japan's F-X program experienced delays over an intense Japanese lobbying effort begun in 2007 to force Washington to release exports of the F-22 Raptor, but the U.S. Congress blocked the effort. After the F-22 rejection, Tokyo set its sights on the F-35, only to see the JSF effort dogged by delays and cost overruns, which postponed the F-X RfP last year.

Tokyo highlighted its interest in stealth by pursuing an indigenous fifth-generation fighter program. Now, Japan is "using their own fifth-generation fighter [TFX] as a bargaining chip" in the competition, but it is still in the research-and-development stage and "hideously expensive," Barrie said.

Japan is desperate to secure local manufacturing options for the F-X, but it is prohibitively expensive for only 40 aircraft. Manufacturing costs could be driven down by the procurement of more fighters to replace F-15Js, increasing the number of F-X fighters to more than 100 and lowering manufacturing costs.

Unless the F-X fighters are produced in Japan, the local fighter manufacturing industry faces dire straits. Japan's only remaining fighter production line, the Mitsubishi F-2, will end in September.

There are also budget concerns after Japan's devastating triple disaster - earthquake, tsunami and a nuclear power plant crisis - and many wonder how the estimated $300 billion price tag for the catastrophe will affect the F-X budget.

Cost issues could push Japan to select the Super Hornet or the Typhoon. Eurofighter officials have been promoting the Typhoon as a flexible, inexpensive alternative to the F/A-18 and F-35. A European industry source in Tokyo said technical restrictions hamper F-35 exports, while Eurofighter has "no black box policy," which means wider options for Japanese industry participation.

Yet the Japan-U.S. military alliance and pressure to procure a U.S. fighter may keep Tokyo from picking a European fighter.

Taiwan's request for new F-16C/Ds is seen as a follow-on request for an earlier procurement of F-16A/Bs in the 1990s. Despite Beijing protests, the U.S. Congress recently called for the White House to release new fighters and upgrade packages, including a request for a follow-on F-16 trainer program for Taiwan's 21st Tactical Fighter Squadron based at Luke Air Force Base, Ariz. In dollar amounts alone, as the U.S. economy declines, increased pressure on the White House to release the F-16s might be too great to withstand.

"In the case of Taiwan, irrespective of posturing on the part of Beijing, the delivery of F-16 Block 52s should proceed," Barrie said.

Taiwan bought $16.5 billion worth of U.S.­built arms and equipment from 2007 to 2010. Sales included 12 P-3C Orion Maritime Patrol Aircraft, 30 AH-64D Apache Longbow attack helicopters and 60 UH-60M Black Hawk utility helicopters. Taiwan has requirements for signal intelligence aircraft, attack jet trainers, basic aircraft trainers and UAVs.

Chinese Avionics Advances Ripple Throughout Asia

ISLAMABAD - China's avionics industry is closing the gap with other avionics producers, with benefits flowing to Pakistan and new challenges emerging for the U.S.

Chinese aircraft are helping Pakistan maintain conventional deterrence toward India as New Delhi pursues cutting-edge technology to revamp its airpower. As a result, said Usman Shabbir, of the Pakistan Military Consortium think tank, the new "JF-17 Block II [combat aircraft] may see a Chinese AESA [active electronically scanned array] radar along with an IRST [infrared search and track] sensor, and an even better ECM [electronic countermeasures] suite."

Wider advances by China's aviation industry would result in "greater use of composites to reduce the overall airframe weight" for the JF-17 Block II, and also a thrust vectoring control engine; though Shabbir conceded the latter "has never been officially confirmed."

Analyst Kaiser Tufail said an AESA radar is "the way to go," and that "all future [radar] acquisitions or retrofits would be AESA, whether mechanically scanned or phased-array type."

Tufail said the current JF-17 radar, a variant of which is fitted to the Chinese Chengdu J-10 combat jet, is an interim solution "because the [Pakistan Air Force] had been unable to find a radar vendor who could sell cutting-edge technology at an affordable price."

Tufail said Pakistan's acquisition of advanced Chinese avionics should not be seen through the prism of Indian programs, such as the Medium Multirole Combat Aircraft program. Rather, he said, it should be seen as Pakistan's effort to keep pace with modern weaponry.

And China benefits from its collaboration with Pakistan.

"Traditionally, the Chinese aviation industry has found an excellent test bed in the PAF, and their products have been, and can be, proven in ways that are not possible with [China's Air Force], due to limitations of comparative analysis in truly operational scenarios and with respect to Western equipment that PAF operates," he said.

As a result, a "Chinese AESA radar would, therefore, be a synergetic success in partnership with Pakistan," he said.

However, it is unknown whether the new JF-17 Block II radars are variants of those fitted to the improved J-10B. If that is the case, analyst and Chinese specialist Andrei Chang said the new radar is unlikely to be an AESA type.

"The phased-array radar testing on the J-10B is a passive model," he said.

Chang said he does not think the Chinese have developed "a useful AESA radar for the JF-17 and J-10B," but they could in the future.

"I know they are researching AESA radars, but it takes time," he said.

China's technological advances give potential adversaries cause for concern, Tufail said.

"As in many other fields like space and information technology, China is making a mark in major ways which impacts geostrategic and security issues," he said. "Technological developments like AESA radars would, thus, certainly have a bearing on the comfort levels of countries that have an adversarial relationship with China."

The potential threat posed by Chinese advances in avionics is an issue Carlo Kopp of the Air Power Australia think tank has tried to raise.

"Chinese technology is a mix of reverse-engineered Western and Russian designs, and some often very good indigenous ideas," he said. The danger this poses is clear.

"As the Chinese advance and proliferate these products, they are increasingly narrowing the range of environments in which Western air forces and navies can operate," Kopp said.

CHINESE DEFENSES

"Today, only the U.S. F-22A [stealth fighter] and B-2A [stealth bomber] can penetrate Chinese airspace with impunity," he said. "All other Western designs, including the intended F-35 [Joint Strike Fighter] and existing F/A-18E, would suffer prohibitive loss rates" to surface-to-air missiles, he said.

Kopp's opinion of the F-35 is perhaps surprising, but he said he believes China's investment in more maneuverable aircraft will expose severe weaknesses.

"The notion that having a good AESA [radar] can overcome kinematic performance limitations in a design is predicated on the idea that your missiles are 100 percent effective in long-range combat," he said. "The evidence shows otherwise for the AIM-120 AMRAAM."

The approach that says "let the missiles do the turning," rather than the aircraft, "is a mantra in the F-35 and F/A-18 camps," Kopp said. "Unfortunately, it is wishful thinking by folks promoting obsolete designs. The mathematics and physics of aerial combat do not support this proposition."

Therefore, the strategic impact of China's advances will be substantial and exacerbated by poor long-term decision-making by the U.S., Kopp said.

"As China wholly recapitalizes its fleets, and exports these products, there will be an inevitable strategic impact, as the U.S. has been reluctant to export the F-22, has chopped F-22 production funds, and has no new products in the pipeline capable of robustly surviving against top-end Chinese products in combat," he said.

Kopp also blames the reluctance by Washington to share high-technology weaponry with allies that could check China's advance.

He singles out Defense Secretary Robert Gates for making decisions that will produce "a dangerous long-term strategic environment in Asia as China introduces and proliferates advanced technology, and the U.S. chooses for ideological reasons to no longer invest in advanced air power."