UAE Eyes F-16 as Rafale Talks Falter

PARIS - The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is talking with Lockheed Martin about buying more F-16 fighter jets because France's offer of an advanced version of the Rafale is seen as too expensive, said a source familiar with the negotiations in the Arabian Gulf.

Discussions on the F-16 pile pressure on Dassault Aviation, builder of the Rafale, to cut prices and on the French government to increase funding for upgrades seen as vital to sealing an export deal for the twin-engine combat jet with the UAE, analysts said.

In the 1990s, the UAE bought 80 F-16E/F fighters under a $7.3 billion foreign military sales contract.

"The UAE is finding the Rafale offer to be too costly compared to the capabilities of aircraft and other technologies on the market," the source said. "The negotiations with France are still ongoing, and both sides are looking for a compromise."

The UAE has been seen as a potential first export buyer of the Rafale in a deal estimated last year at $10 billion. Meetings on the sale of the French fighter took place at the Paris Air Show, which ended June 26.

But price resistance has led UAE officials to open discussions with Lockheed to buy more F-16s with the latest "weaponry and targeting sensors," the source said.

Last year, UAE officials asked for technical information on Boeing's F/A-18E/F Super Hornet following a political chill at the highest levels between Abu Dhabi and Paris.

In talks with the French, the elements said to be stretching the UAE's planned budget are the co-development costs for a more powerful "special" version of the Rafale, plus maintenance and spare parts. The UAE wants its Rafales powered by Snecma M88 engines, whose 9 tons of thrust would provide 1.5 tons more than the version flown by the French Air Force.

Other improvements requested include a longer-range active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar and a more capable Spectra electronic warfare suite.

The upgrades previously have been estimated at 2 billion euros ($2.9 billion) by then-French Defense Minister Hervé Morin.

Officials with Dassault Aviation declined to comment. Shortly before the Paris Air Show, Dassault Chief Executive Charles Edelstenne said of the Rafale offer to the UAE, "the talks are advancing."

The gulf source said, "Lockheed Martin is offering a very attractive financial package."

A UAE sale might help Lockheed keep its F-16 assembly line open after India rejected the U.S. fighter in its Medium Multirole Combat Aircraft competition.

Lockheed officials were unable to comment by press time.

France badly needs export success on the Rafale, a showcase of military technological competence, as the national defense budget assumes foreign contracts to help pay for a steady rate of production.

Dassault has said it must build 11 Rafales per year to keep the production line running at an economical rate.

Large companies depending on the Rafale include Safran subsidiaries Sagem for the forward-looking infrared gear and Snecma for the jet engines, as well as Thales for the electronics and RBE2 AESA radar, and MBDA, which hopes to sell the Meteor long-range missile.

The UAE's interest in the F-16 has forced Dassault to reduce prices, said Loic Tribot La Spiere, chief executive of think tank Centre d'Etude et Prospective Stratégique. Dassault has little room to maneuver as it must sell the Rafale, needed to boost "other opportunities" in export markets, he said.

Dassault hopes to sell the Rafale to Brazil, India and Switzerland, among other countries.

"Faced with this development, Dassault could go far in concessions, and the Emirates know it," Tribot La Spiere said.

But the U.S. also has an urgent need to boost exports, given its dire domestic economic situation, Tribot La Spiere said. The gulf is seen as a region that helps sustain U.S. activity.

"In this context, it is a safe bet that buying the F-16 aircraft could be seen, or rather proposed, as underwriting a security insurance policy: 'You buy this product and we will ensure your security, even internally,'" he said.

Research fellow Hélène Masson of think tank Fondation pour la Récherche Stratégique said the UAE's talks with Lockheed are a "radical means to put pressure on Dassault's offer."

The move may raise France's financial burden to pay for the Rafale's development, particularly the M88 engine.

"The central problem is really the funding for the aircraft's new functions, notably the engine," Masson said. "It's a way to say to the aircraft maker, and above all, the French Defense Ministry, that they must contribute more significantly to the development of this new version of the M88 and so reduce the financial cost to the UAE. ... Yes, this is really a chess game."

Dassault refuses, as a policy, to use company money to fund military aircraft development, insisting the government client pay.

The French Air Force is understood to be content with the current engine's performance, so it appears Paris must decide whether to further fund upgrades to win the UAE sale. That comes as France seeks to cut its public deficit.

In the 1990s, the UAE bought 80 F-16E/F fighters, with distinctive conformal fuel tanks, under a $7.3 billion contract through the Pentagon's Foreign Military Sales program. A reported $3 billion of that amount went to co-develop the Block 60 Desert Falcon, widely viewed as the most capable version of the F-16 worldwide.

As co-developer, the UAE is co-owner of some of the sensitive military technology on the Block 60 version. As part of the deal, UAE personnel worked on the co-development program, and Lockheed trained Emirati nationals to service the Block 60 aircraft.

The 1990s also saw the UAE buy Dassault Mirage 2000-9s, which were more advanced than the 2000-5 flown by the French Air Force. Older Mirage fighters were also upgraded to the more capable variant.

The Mirage 2000-9 fleet still has a long life ahead, but the UAE could start taking delivery of the new F-16s in under five years while keeping its Mirages, the source said.

France has offered to buy back the Mirage 2000-9 fleet and resell it in export markets to encourage the Rafale sale to the UAE.

The UAE has bought the Black Shaheen cruise missile for the Mirage. The UAE also has the long-range strike missile Hakim, which was shown under the wing of a Rafale model displayed in February on missile maker MBDA's stand at the IDEX arms show in Abu Dhabi.

The Key to Afghan Pullout

Short-term priorities established by new U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta to withdraw combat forces from Afghanistan and eliminate remnants of al-Qaida will heavily depend on making investments in intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR).

Such capabilities also will be critical to a longer-term goal of modernizing U.S. forces to deter aggression globally, particularly in the western Pacific, Central Asia and the Middle East, where major regional threats are likely to arise.

Withdrawing forces safely and finding al-Qaida leaders begins with high-resolution, wide-area sensors continuously watching large swaths of countries from standoff distances. The only proven airborne sensor capable of performing these missions is the E-8 Joint Surveillance Target Attack Radar System (JSTARS) aircraft, and finding the resources to upgrade these capabilities should be an Air Force priority.

JSTARS has proved its worth in Iraq in the two wars there, in Afghanistan currently, in South Korea during the saber rattling by North Korea in 2009, and in Libya during the initial actions taken to prevent a massacre.

JSTARS alone has the capacity and flexibility to provide real-time ISR and battle management in a full spectrum of scenarios, ranging from precombat crisis management to full regional warfare. When a crisis erupts anywhere, the combatant commander first calls for JSTARS.

So, as Panetta and his military leaders build plans to achieve these objectives for both the short and long term, JSTARS should be the centerpiece of the ISR systems. Small, unmanned aircraft detect activity over small areas in good weather. JSTARS detects stationary and moving targets, even small ones, over extremely wide areas and during all weather conditions.

JSTARScan replace boots on the ground with its proactive, wide-area surveillance to detect trouble and enable safe withdrawal.

U.S. overseas combatant commanders frequently extol the unique value of JSTARS. Army Gen. Carter Ham, commander of U.S. Africa Command, which is responsible for operations in Libya, said JSTARS was integral to the success of early operations there. Commanders of U.S. Central Command have repeatedly referred to the unique capabilities of JSTARS and its vital contributions to the surveillance mission in Afghanistan.

The commander of U.S. Pacific Command requested JSTARS immediately when tensions rose in 2009 on the Korean Peninsula.

Yet despite these ringing endorsements, the Air Force has greatly undervalued JSTARS. It has long recognized the need to install modern engines on JSTARS, which are converted four-engine Boeing 707 airliners, to greatly reduce operating costs and increase capability. It is conducting a highly successful flight test program with new jet engines on the JSTARS test aircraft.

But now the service refuses to proceed with retrofit of the fleet, even though Congress previously appropriated the dollars to install the new engines on the first two production aircraft.

Instead, the Air Force is conducting an analysis of alternatives, due this fall, looking at new aircraft to perform the mission in the future.

Panetta also has strongly endorsed President Barack Obama's directive to find at least $400 billion in savings over 12 years while retaining the capabilities to deal with current and future threats. This is particularly difficult for the Air Force because it must find savings while funding three new high-priority programs: the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, the KC-46A tanker and a new penetrating bomber.

Another new program to replace JSTARS would be impossible to fund. Therefore, the Air Force must exercise extreme cost discipline in building its ISR road map. That means finding prudent upgrades to existing systems that already perform the missions well, such as JSTARS, rather than costly development programs for replacement systems that require enormous sums in the near term. The JSTARS modernization program fits this formula well.

Moreover, the cost of sustaining the current Air Force force structure is increasing and eating into its investment budget for replacements. Re-engining and replacing older, inefficient parts with lower-cost, modern commercial parts greatly reduces the cost of ownership for JSTARS.

Upgrading JSTARS is a win-win solution. It lowers the development cost to perform the mission and reduces operating and support costs during its life cycle.

Panetta and the Joint Chiefs of Staff have formidable challenges ahead in developing strategies and forces to withdraw from Afghanistan, eliminate al-Qaida and deter future major conflicts globally. Pressures to reduce defense spending will make them more difficult. A modernized JSTARS as the centerpiece of the ISR mission is the right way to start.

Retired Gen. Michael Loh, a former U.S. Air Force vice chief of staff and former commander of Air Combat Command. He consults for several defense companies, including Northrop Grumman.

Blast Chimney Shows Promise, Questions Remain

Since its veiled debut at an annual U.S. Army conference last year, there has been little news of the structural blast chimney, a potentially groundbreaking technology that promises to protect Humvees and other military vehicles from roadside bombs.

A BLAST FROM an IED-like explosive envelops a Humvee equipped with a "chimney" structure intended to protect vehicle passengers. The U.S. Test Center has put the chimney through a number of such blast tests. (DARPA)

Now, new information is emerging, including blast test results from the Army's Test Center in Aberdeen, Md., and new data from the Marine Corps on the vehicle's durability in difficult terrain. The test results paint a complicated picture of a promising technology that still has to work out some kinks. And until there is more data, it remains unclear how much the chimney contributes to the safety of the people inside.

Back in October, those invited to an off-site art gallery near the Washington Convention Center could view a blast-tested Humvee and learn of its ability to vent explosive energy up through a blast channel that ran through the center of it.

News of the chimney immediately drew questions from skeptics. There were whispers that Hardwire, the company behind the chimney, and its teammate on the project, Humvee-maker AM General, had oversold the technology's potential.

Others wanted to know how a blast channel running straight up through the interior of a Humvee affected the space and visibility for the soldiers inside.

As the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), the Army and the Marine Corps proceeded to blast-test the vehicles in Aberdeen, defense officials talked about the technology's potential in congressional testimony and in meetings with reporters.

"Visually, it looks very, very promising," Army Secretary John McHugh told lawmakers March 16.

He said he'd watched classified videos in Army Chief of Staff Gen. George Casey's office of the vehicles being blown up.

Until now, no one outside the program has learned what "very promising" means.

M-ATV PROTECTION, HALF THE WEIGHT

While the tests' results remain classified, DARPA officials say the blasts indicate a Humvee equipped with the structural blast chimney provides the mandatory survivability level required of an M-ATV, the lightest version of the military's mine-resistant ambush-protected (MRAP) vehicles. And it does so at almost half the weight.

The gross weight of the Humvees being tested is 16,300 pounds. An M-ATV weighs roughly 30,000 pounds, while the average MRAP weighs 40,000 pounds.

"The data to date indicates that the occupant survivability of this vehicle is comparable to the M-ATV," said Leo Christodoulou, who directs DARPA's Defense Sciences Office.

There have been 11 survivability tests to date, and eight have been under a joint DARPA-Marine Corps-Army program. The Army Test Center has conducted all of the tests.

Five more survivability tests are scheduled before the end of the summer, Christodoulou said.

A DARPA chart prepared earlier in the year for Congress shows that the goal is to achieve MRAP-like survivability at less than half the weight. The companies behind the effort remain confident that such results will be achieved in upcoming tests.

The structural blast chimney holds a lot of promise for even bigger explosions, according to AM General CEO Charles Hall. He said the structural blast chimney could provide the survivability of vehicles two to three times its weight.

Chris Yunker, who leads the vehicle requirements team at the Marine Corps Combat Development Command, said the service is watching the blast testing closely.

"When they do the blast testing on this rigid cabin we're seeing pretty good results," Yunker said. "That really caught our attention and we said, 'This is a good design; let's keep looking at it.'"

Despite its moniker, there is much more to the new vehicle design than the chimney.

Hardwire CEO George Tunis explained that all of the components working together keep the vehicle intact, on the ground and its occupants safe.

The clutter inside the vehicle has been cleaned up, with new racks designed to hold gear and ammo. Hardwire picked seats designed by Jankel, which Tunis described as the best blast-mitigating seat on the market.

Hardwire has also redesigned the way the Gunner Protection Kit responds during a blast event, greatly reducing the blast overpressure, he said.

The floor has also been redesigned to absorb as much blast energy as possible, Tunis said.

Finally, there is the chimney, which not only creates a hollow space through the vehicle but a very rigid cab structure that can withstand big explosions. The chimney also connects the ceiling to the floor, which reinforces the floor's strength, Tunis said.

But what once seemed like the key feature - the hollow blast channel - might only play a small role in the vehicle's protection.

Christodoulou said DARPA is still running tests and simulations that will help decouple the contributions of the various components. For the chimney, "the jury is still out," he said.

First and foremost, the chimney provides structural rigidity to the cabin, Yunker said. "There's a little bit of debate on whether there is any venting effect of that chimney."

The numbers he's seen show it may contribute 3 to 7 percent in the decrease of the vehicle's acceleration.

"I have the luxury of being a combat developer," he said, "and I tell people, 'I don't care if it's bubble gum on the window that makes the thing work.' If it works, we're interested in it."

He said that of the three ways that Marines and soldiers die in roadside bomb attacks, the chimney may be protecting against two.

The chimney does not mitigate a bomb's energy impulse, which still hits the vehicle's underbody, but it may help decrease acceleration from overpressure, according to Yunker.

"It looks to me like there's some venting, because you see smoke and dirt coming out of that chimney," he said.

Troops are also killed by fragmentation and debris, and some of that appears to be going through the chimney as well, he said.

"No matter what the percentage, if it reduces injury by any percent it's worth it," Tunis said.

SYSTEM'S FLAWS

While DARPA continues to investigate the question of the chimney, the Marines are focusing on the Humvee's structural durability after thousands of miles of driving.

"What we're seeing in the structural blast chimney design is similar to a problem we're seeing in other designs," Yunker said. The rigid cabin structure is putting pressure on the Humvee's frame and this is leading to fatigue problems.

"You can drive it a few thousand miles and you'll have some structural damage and pretty quick you'll have some real component failures, so our next step is to focus now on the automotive issues," he said. "It's kind of like we're looking at a house, but we've got a foundation problem."

The Army and the Marine Corps also have to consider cost. The question becomes how much does it cost to solve the problem versus buying new vehicles.

Meanwhile, both services will have other candidates to consider.

"Honestly, we're seeing other designs in that same weight class that are making M-ATV-level protection," Yunker said.

AM General even has another potential offer for the Army and Marine Corps' upcoming Humvee recapitalization programs.

After canvassing industry a few years ago, AM General decided to throw its luck and investment behind the Hardwire solution and a different one from Israeli armor-maker Plasan.

"This [chimney] program is not supposed to be a point solution for anything; it's supposed to inform us to make the next vehicle decisions," Christodoulou said.

While questions about the chimney remain, officials agree that people should let the data speak for itself.

"Let's follow the data. Let's continue to do experimentation and see where the data and the facts take us," Yunker said.

DoD Approves U.S. Army's GCV Plan

Pentagon officials approved the U.S. Army's plan to field a $1.35 billion fleet of armored vehicles called the Ground Combat Vehicle following a July 21 Defense Acquisition Board review.

Army officials will proceed with the GCV program's technology development phase of the vehicle designed to replace the Bradley infantry fighting vehicle. Ashton Carter, the Defense Department acquisition chief, approved the Army's plan despite questions from inside and outside the service about the need for the armored vehicle and its affordability.

The Army plans to field more than 1,800 GCVs, which some analysts say could cost the service as much as $10.5 million per vehicle.

"The Army is committed to delivering a vehicle that provides soldiers with protected mobility in modern combat environments. The Army's proposed program builds upon refined requirements and a strategy to achieve an affordable solution to address soldiers' protected mobility in a seven-year schedule to the first production vehicle," according to an Army statement following the decision.

Three industry teams submitted a second round of bids in January to compete in the program's technology development phase of the program. A second round was needed after the service resubmitted the program's Request for Proposals after focusing the GCV's list of requirements.

U.S. To Decide on Taiwan F-16s Oct. 1

TAIPEI - The Obama administration will make a final decision on the sale of 66 F-16C/D fighter jets to Taiwan by Oct. 1, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, on July 21.

A U.S. AIR Force F-16C fighter makes a flight from Tyndall Air Force Base, Fla., to Atlantic City, N.J., in this 2001 photo. Taiwan has requested permission from the U.S. government to purchase the F-16C and the F-16D, a two-seat fighter. (U.S. Air Force)

Since 2006, the U.S. has repeatedly rejected Taiwan's letter of request (LOR) for new F-16C/D fighters. China has called the proposed sale, estimated to be worth more than $8 billion, a "red line."

Cornyn has been blocking Senate confirmation of William Burns, nominated to become deputy secretary of state, in an effort to pressure Clinton to approve the deal.

Clinton appears less than likely to upset recent progress in Sino-U.S. relations by releasing new fighters to Taiwan, although she might instead release a mid-life upgrade (MLU) package for the self-governing island's 146 aging F-16A/B fighters.

Last year, the U.S. accepted Taiwan's LOR for the $4.5 billion upgrade package, but then froze the release due to Chinese pressure.

A State Department release of the F-16A/B MLU "would be a reiteration of a decision that is already over one year old," said Rupert Hammond-Chambers, president of the U.S.-Taiwan Business Council. "It is not a new commitment."

Since 2007, the U.S. has released more than $16 billion in new arms to Taiwan. After each release, China has increased rhetorical threats and punitive actions. In January 2010, after Washington released a $6.4 billion arms deal to Taiwan, Beijing threatened economic punishment and canceled military exchanges.

Restarting the military dialogue with China has been difficult. Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, just concluded a trip to China to expand military relations. Though Mullen expressed concerns about China's military modernization after his trip, the U.S. appears committed to advancing strategic talks.

Clinton's announced deadline happens to fall on China's National Day, roughly equivalent to America's Fourth of July.

But Hammond-Chambers said the timing makes the release of new F-16s difficult for another reason: It is sandwiched between U.S. Vice President Joseph Biden's trip to China next month and Chinese President Hu Jintao's trip to Hawaii in November. Xi Jinping, Hu's anointed successor, will visit the U.S. this winter.

"It doesn't seem plausible that the Obama administration would stand-up for Taiwan policy in the face of two such senior visits from China," Hammond-Chambers said.

While the announcement to make a decision is welcome, "We suspect that the outcome simply reiterates decisions already made, and therefore fails to address Taiwan's central need - new combat aircraft to meet the growing threat from China," Hammond-Chambers said.

Andrew Yang, Taiwan's deputy minister of defense, said the release of new F-16s would not be the end of the world. China has been calling every arms sale a red line for 30 years, he said.

"China will be extremely unpleasant and upset," Yang said. "I don't believe they will take drastic action."

But a failure to release F-16s will damage Taiwan's ability to defend itself, he said. "If we don't have the required jets and replacement of vintage fighter aircraft, you lose your leverage."

Yang said Taiwan has the right to defend itself from outside aggression.

He confirmed that Taiwan's military is researching an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) weapon.

Taiwan also is developing new missiles, but Yang would not confirm whether the self-governing island is preparing to field the Hsiung Feng 2E land-attack cruise missile.

Yang said losing Taiwan to China would be catastrophic for U.S. military power in the Asia-Pacific region. If China built military bases on the island, they would threaten U.S. military dominance of the East China Sea and South China Sea.

The deputy defense minister said Washington also would lose a vital intelligence collector.

"We are collecting good stuff," and sharing it with the U.S., he said.

Taiwan's fighters are aging; meanwhile, China revealed in December its J-20 stealth fighter, and it is preparing sea trials of its first aircraft carrier by the end of the year.

Taiwan has 126 Indigenous Defense Fighters (IDFs), 56 Mirage 2000s, 146 F-16A/Bs and about 60 F-5E/F Tigers. The F-5s and Mirages have serious maintenance problems and will be retired within a decade.

Taiwan's state-run Aerospace Industrial Development Corp. is upgrading 71 IDFs, with delivery scheduled by 2014, and it could upgrade the remaining 55 IDFs if the F-16C/Ds are not approved. Taiwan also has an option to build a new C/D variant of the IDF, but this will not fill the fighter gap with China.

NATO Probes Hackers' Claim of Security Breach

BRUSSELS - NATO is investigating claims by the hacker group Anonymous that it plundered sensitive data from alliance computers, a NATO official said July 22.

"We are aware that Anonymous has claimed to have hacked us and we have security experts investigating these claims," the official said.

"We strongly condemn any leaks of classified documents, which can potentially endanger the security of NATO allies, armed forces and citizens," the official said on condition of anonymity.

The group posted a message on Twitter this week claiming to have looted about a gigabyte of NATO data and said it was too sensitive to release.

"Yes, we haz (sic) more of your delicious data," the Twitter post read.

"You call it war; we laugh at your battleships."

Last month, NATO said it was notified by police dealing with digital crimes that an alliance website was probably breached by hackers.

The e-Bookshop website, a separate service for the public to access alliance publications, did not contain sensitive information.

Malaysia to Deport French Lawyer in Graft Probe

KUALA LUMPUR - A French lawyer for a rights group in an inquiry into alleged corruption linked to Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak was detained July 22 in Kuala Lumpur and will be deported, the government said.

The Malaysian government has dismissed graft allegations linked to a $1.1-billion submarine purchase in 2002, when Najib was defense minister, saying it is an opposition-backed attempt to smear his image.

At the request of Malaysian human rights group Suaram, French judicial officials opened a probe in March 2010 into the sale of the two Scorpene submarines, which were made by French shipbuilder DCN.

William Bourdon, Suaram's lawyer in France, was detained by immigration officials when his plane arrived at Kuala Lumpur International Airport on a domestic flight July 22, he said.

"After a few questions, two hours of waiting and different transfers, a deportation order was served on me," he told AFP.

"I told the Malaysian police that I did not understand this decision, which is devoid of any justification. I was not given any explanation, and nor was the embassy representative who was with me."

Bourdon had arrived in Malaysia on July 21 to speak at a Suaram fundraiser in Penang state, and had been due to speak at another function July 22.

Immigration director general Alias Ahmad confirmed in a statement that Bourdon had been arrested and would be deported.

"Investigations by the immigration department revealed that Bourdon had violated the terms of his social visit pass," he said without elaborating.

Bourdon said he was told he would be sent back to France on Sunday evening and would be held in the airport detention centre in the interim, but took the initiative to leave as soon as possible.

"This expulsion is serious interference with the exercise of the legal profession, which is protected under international law," he said.

"I wonder if the expulsion isn't a sign of a certain nervousness among the Malaysian authorities."

Suaram alleges DCN paid a commission of 114 million euros ($160 million) to a company called Perimekar, which is linked to Abdul Razak Baginda, an associate of Najib's.

Abdul Razak has been acquitted of charges of abetting the 2006 murder of his mistress, Mongolian interpreter Altantuya Shaariibuu, which the opposition has also been trying to link to Najib.

But Najib has denied any link to that case. The Malaysian government has also maintained that the submarine deal, brokered when Najib was defense minister, was free of graft and that Perimekar had not improperly benefited.