Taiwan's Defense Show in Decline; F-16s in Limbo

TAIPEI - The biennial Taipei Aerospace & Defense Technology Exhibition (TADTE), which ran Aug. 11-14, was forced to share floor space with a comic book convention at the World Trade Center here. If that was not humiliating enough, several mainland Chinese businessmen were seen perusing booths. Who and what they were about remain a mystery.

A UCAV on display at the recent Taipei Aerospace & Defense Technology Exhibition. (Wendell Minnick / Staff)

Those familiar with the vibrancy of the Singapore Air Show might be surprised to learn that Taiwan spends about $2 billion more than Singapore on defense annually, yet there was no evidence of that at TADTE this year.

The show has seen steady declines over the past decade. Only six U.S. defense companies exhibited this year: ITT, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon, Pratt & Whitney and Sikorsky Aircraft. Missing were BAE Systems, Bell Helicopter, Boeing, General Dynamics, L-3 Communications, Rockwell Collins, Thales and U.S. Ordnance, all of which traditionally have had booths.
Part of the lack of interest could be attributed to the fact that Taiwan's shopping list for new arms has been filled for the near term and there are few, if any, items left to procure. The military is struggling to pay for $16.5 billion in new U.S. arms released since 2007, including Patriot PAC-3 ballistic missile defense systems, P-3C Orion maritime patrol aircraft, AH-64D Apache attack helicopters and UH-60M Black Hawk utility helicopters.
Added to procurement costs are expensive reform programs. The Ministry of National Defense (MND) is implementing a streamlining and modernization program that will reduce troop strength from 275,000 to 215,000 within the next five to 10 years.
Despite the MND's financial struggles, a U.S. Department of Defense delegation was in Taiwan during TADTE to finalize price and availability options for a $4.2 billion upgrade package for 146 F-16A/B fighter jets.
Sources at TADTE said the midlife upgrade package has been renamed a "retrofit" to reduce complaints from China. To further placate China, the F-16A/B retrofit will be released incrementally rather than as a total package under the U.S. Foreign Military Sales program.
The only serious competition at TADTE was between Northrop Grumman and Raytheon to supply the active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar for the F-16A/B retrofit requirement. Northrop's Scalable Agile Beam Radar and the Raytheon Advanced Combat Radar are vying to replace the current APG-66(V)3 mechanical radar.
If the U.S. government does not release an AESA radar for Taiwan, TADTE sources indicate that the Northrop APG-68(V)9 mechanical radar would be offered as a substitute.
Taiwan is awaiting a final decision by the U.S. on a deal for 66 F-16C/D fighters for $8 billion, and a 2001 offer for eight diesel submarines estimated at more than $10 billion.
TADTE participants said the U.S. plans to release the F-16A/B retrofit with the AESA radar, but not new F-16C/D fighters.
A senior Taiwan MND official said he was "disappointed" by U.S. plans to deny Taiwan the new fighters.
But senior MND and U.S. government officials are denying the report. MND officials insist the U.S. Defense Department delegation did not inform Taiwan of a final decision on the F-16C/Ds, and hope remains for a positive release.
Since 2006, the U.S. has repeatedly denied Taiwan's request for F-16C/D fighters to placate China. In July, the U.S. State Department indicated a final decision on the F-16 issue would be made before Oct. 1.
News of the DoD delegation's visit comes at an awkward time for the administration of President Barack Obama. U.S. Vice President Joseph Biden arrived in Beijing on Aug. 17 to discuss economic and political issues. China has insisted the U.S. end all arms sales to Taiwan, and has threatened to invade the island should it continue to refuse unification.

MND Pavilion

During TADTE, the MND displayed a variety of new weapons and equipment. The most startling were exhibits by the military-run Chungshan Institute of Science and Technology (CSIST).
CSIST displayed the new Hsiung Feng 3 (Brave Wind 3) supersonic anti-ship missile. Though the missile had been displayed at TADTE 2009, this is the first time it was described as an "aircraft carrier killer," with a mural depicting three HF-3 missiles sinking China's new aircraft carrier, the Varyag.
China began sea trials for the Varyag on Aug. 10, the same day the HF-3 display was unveiled to the media. The Taiwan Navy has outfitted two Perry-class frigates, the 1101 Cheng Kung and 1103 Cheng Ho, with the HF-3.
CSIST also displayed models of two new unmanned aerial combat vehicle (UACV) concepts. CSIST officials did not provide any information about the UACV models, but one appeared similar to the General Atomics MQ-9 Reaper, while the other had a diamond-shaped fuselage similar to the Boeing X-45.
A CSIST animated demonstration video showed three X-45-like UACVs flying alongside an F-16 on a mission to attack a Chinese air base. The video also demonstrated how the Reaper-like UACV could be used to attack ground-based radar facilities in China.
The 202nd Arsenal displayed a new 105mm low-recoil turret being developed for the eight-wheeled Cloud Leopard armored vehicle. One Cloud Leopard on display was equipped with a 40mm grenade launcher. Full-rate production has begun, and the military has a requirement for 300 vehicles.

Pentagon Clears F-35 Test Fleet to Fly Again

The F-35 Lightning II test fleet has been cleared for flight, but the U.S. Air Force's production aircraft at Eglin Air Force Base, Fla., are still grounded, the Pentagon announced Aug. 18.
An Air Force safety investigation board is continuing its investigation of the failure of the AF-4's Integrated Power Package on Aug. 2, which led to the grounding of the entire fleet of 20 aircraft. The AF-4 is the fourth conventional takeoff and landing variant produced by Lockheed Martin.

A government and contractor engineering team determined that flight operations of the test aircraft could continue after reviewing data from ground and flight tests, and revised the test monitoring procedures that govern the IPP. Ground operations of the test fleet resumed Aug. 10.
"The root cause investigation indicates that an IPP valve did not function properly," a release from the F-35 Joint Program Office states. "Monitoring of valve position is a mitigating action to allow monitored operations. A permanent resolution is in work."
The IPP, which is built by Honeywell International, combines the functions performed by an auxiliary power unit, emergency power system and environmental controls.
The Air Force's test F-35s are at Edwards Air Force Base, Calif., with U.S. Navy and U.S. Marine Corps' variants based at Naval Air Station Patuxent River, Md. The Air Force's aircraft at Eglin, which do not have test instrumentation, will be grounded until the investigation is finished and any required corrective actions are completed.

Israel-China Revive Military Ties, But Not Defense Trade

TEL AVIV - In yet another step toward revived Sino-Israeli defense ties, Gen. Chen Bingde, chief of staff of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), concluded a four-day trip to Israel on Aug. 17, the first ever by a commander of the Chinese military.

Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak toasts Gen. Chen Bingde, left, as Lt. Gen. Beni Gantz nods in agreement. (Israel Ministry of Defense)

The visit, hosted by Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz, Chen's counterpart in the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), followed Barak's mid-June trip to Beijing and a PLA Navy delegation hosted here in May.

Chen's visit included tours of several military installations and a series of high-level working meetings at IDF headquarters here, but did not involve substantive discussion of revived Israeli arms transfers to China, sources here said.
"There's no change in our export license policy to China due to continued American opposition. But as the string of recent visits indicates, we're working hard to find other ways to advance our mutual interest in strengthened [Sino-Israeli] defense cooperation," a government official here said.
The Israeli official said the Chinese still resent the U.S. pressure that forced Israel to terminate a $1.3 billion deal for early warning aircraft more than a decade ago, as well as the consultative process that gives Washington de-facto veto rights over any proposed trade with Beijing.
A U.S. State Department cable published by WikiLeaks provided rare insight into the process in place since 2006 with respect to Israeli technology transfers to China. According to the July 2009 cable, authorized by Andrew Shapiro, U.S. assistant secretary of state for political-military affairs, "As it now stands, the government of Israel must pursue any export to China through the bilateral statement of understanding with the United States. While the statement calls for expeditious resolution of any requests to export to China, it often takes up to 80 days to obtain approval."
Israeli sources say that since the crisis of confidence with Washington that triggered the bilateral consultative process, Washington has approved only a few, nonoffensive, homeland security-related sales to China.
"Compared to what we could have sold in that huge market, defense trade to China has been miniscule ... And the Chinese know that decisions of this nature are not taken in Jerusalem, but in Washington," the Israeli official said.
Beyond stymied defense trade, however, sources here say Israel can provide China valuable information on military tactics, assessments of regional threats, and insight into Israeli diplomatic and other initiatives that may impact neighboring countries and China's access to Mideast oil.
"As long as there is no change in Israel's arms export policy - and there is no evidence that such a change has occurred ... a strengthening of military ties could still prove beneficial to China," wrote Yoram Evron, senior researcher for the Institute for National Security Studies, based here.
In an Aug. 17 paper, Evron, a lecturer at the Department of Asian Studies at Haifa University, noted that China has not engaged in military operations since 1979, and therefore is interested not only in Israeli technology but in broader operational and tactical knowledge accrued in recent years by the IDF. Similarly, Evron said that information-sharing with Israel would support Beijing's desire to establish a gradual strategic presence in the region.
"Not only can Israel provide China an updated perspective on regional occurrences - for example, developments pertaining to the 'Arab spring' and trends in the field of terrorism - but strategic information-sharing with Israel could spare China surprises from Israeli actions" that impact the region, according to Evron. Israel's position as a key U.S. ally makes such channels with Israel all the more worthwhile, he said.
"Given the intensifying competition between the two powers, the strengthening of military ties with an American ally is a credit to China," Evron added.
The Israeli researcher concluded that as Israel continues to enhance its standing with a vital player in the region and on the world stage, it will have to tread carefully so as not to upset Washington, its pre-eminent ally and strategic patron.

First Karakoram Eagle to make a touchdown in Pakistan in November 2011

Delivery of first ZDK-03 Karakoram Eagle AWACS (Airborne Warning and Control Systems) produced for Pakistan Air Force is expected in November this year, according to latest report.

The aircraft is in final stages of preparations/system testings/installation for delivery to Pakistan.

Pakistan Air Force signed an agreement for the joint development of four ZDK-03 AEW&C aircraft Karakoram Eagle which were to be configured to meet Pakistan's specifications with China Electronics Technology Group Corporation.

PAF has plans to induct a total of four Shaanxi ZDK-03 AWACS aircraft in a $278m deal. ZDK-03 also features a solid nose with MAWS sensors on both sides, as well as two small vertial tail stablizers.

U.S. Security Experts Seek More Extensive Information-Sharing

It's not the loud pronouncements by hacking groups or the highly visible denial-of-service attacks that scare cybersecurity experts. It's silence.
In the escalating battle against cyber attackers, the focus has been on new security software and cyber hygiene, but one of the greatest tools against "the adversary," as cyber attackers are called in industry parlance, is the relatively low-tech approach of sharing information about attacks.
Yet contractors continue to remain mum on many intrusions - citing liability concerns - creating a vacuum that reduces their ability to fight attacks. The U.S. Defense Department continues to hunt for a way to increase reporting when both classified and unclassified sensitive data are compromised.
"The bad guys are fast; they have no intellectual property boundaries, no rules, they just execute and with all this funding they could kill us if we don't match that with good information sharing," said Phyllis Schneck, vice president and chief technology officer for the public sector at McAfee Security. "It's like a weather forecast; the more data you have, the more lives you can save if you can forecast the tornado or the hurricane."
McAfee highlighted the issue of information sharing when it released a report Aug. 3 about an effort to track a group of intruders. The project, Operation Shady RAT, found that the intruders had grabbed data from 72 different entities, including 13 defense contractors and 22 government agencies, in 14 different countries, with more than two-thirds of those attacks targeting the U.S.
The project's name refers to a technique of using remote access tools (RAT) to infiltrate networks. In order to gain access to the networks, the attackers employed spear phishing, sending emails that appear to be from a recognized contact that encourages a download concealing malicious hardware.
The group used the same set of tools for five years, suggesting that later victims might have been able to respond more effectively if they had learned of the pattern in earlier attacks.
To push for greater disclosure, the DoD has been exploring two avenues: a new Defense Federal Acquisition Regulations Supplement (DFARS) rule that would make mandatory the reporting of intrusions that compromise certain types of sensitive information; and the Defense Industrial Base (DIB) Cyber Pilot program, a voluntary program that includes roughly two dozen companies reporting intrusions involving classified and sensitive data, and disclosure by the DoD of threats it has detected.
But reporting attacks, even to government agencies that promise anonymity, is not without risks, said Alan Chvotkin, executive vice president of the Professional Services Council. "It's reputation liability, legal liability and business liability," he said.

DFARS Proposed Rule

Dipping its toe into mandatory compliance, the Pentagon is circulating for comment until Aug. 29 the proposed new rule for the DFARS that would compel contractors to disclose intrusions. The rule would require that contractors provide "adequate security," report cyber incidents within 72 hours and conduct a review of their networks to search for information about the attacks.
But although Chvotkin said that contractors agree with the notion of improving security, there are questions about the rule.
"One of the underlying concerns in the DFARS proposed rule is that it makes security a contract compliance issue, so does a breach incur not only some liability and exposure but also a contract breach because you haven't met the standards? Even if you've met the regulations, errors still occur."
He also pointed to the unknown risk of liability, acknowledging concerns about trust as it relates to company anonymity during the reporting process.
"Trust develops over time," he said. "As companies have participated, that trust factor goes up. Just like voluntary disclosure and others, you come to the first one reluctantly."
The issue of trust is very real, said Bill Marshall, managing director of The Chertoff Group and former deputy chief of staff for cyber at the National Security Agency.
"There's a significant lack of trust between the government and the private sector," he said. "There's also a lack of understanding as far as concerns and needs on both sides of the fence, and that's an impediment."
He pointed to the potential repercussions of information leaks. "What if a penetration shows up in The Washington Post? What if you have to explain that to your shareholders?"
Jeff Moulton, a researcher at the Georgia Tech Research Institute, said there would need to be a means for enforcement for the rule to be effective.
"There has got to be an ironclad way to make sure that there are serious repercussions for a person who discloses information," he said. "If somebody wants to torpedo the stock price of a company, all they have to do is release that information."

DIB Cyber Pilot

The Pentagon has also looked for a voluntary approach to the reporting problem. The DIB Cyber Pilot, lasting 90 days and including a limited number of companies, has been successful, said Alan Paller, who directs research at the SANS Institute.
"It worked wonderfully," he said. "It found specific evidence of attacks taking place in one company that was occurring in three other companies that those other companies didn't know about."
He noted that even when companies volunteer, reporting is still an issue.
"There are at least two to three times the number of attacks than are presented to the community, and that's among people that are agreeing to share the data," he said.
Experts said voluntary reporting would be most effective if smaller companies were included in the process, whereas most of the companies in the DIB Cyber Pilot are large. Larger companies typically have large cybersecurity staffs and conduct extensive research on intrusions, while smaller companies may not have the resources to invest in this type of research.
By sharing data between larger and smaller companies, the contracting community as a whole would likely be better protected as the transfer of sensitive data occurs across the spectrum of company size.
While there has been discussion of implementing a program similar to the DIB Cyber Pilot on a larger scale, the problem of cost looms. Speaking about the DIB Cyber Pilot, Deputy Defense Secretary William Lynn talked about the cost issue at a press conference in July.
"One of the reasons this is a short pilot is that for 90 days, people are willing to hold their breath and not worry about the 'who pays' part," he said. "But when you get beyond that, when we get more permanent, there is a question of who pays, and that's one of the central questions that we're tackling."

Cost and Oversight

Regardless of the technique employed to promote communication, the issue of cost remains.
"Quite frankly, this is a cost that they're trying to drive as close to zero as they can, and the costs keep going up," Marshall said.
Those costs are hard to justify for many companies, as there isn't a simple risk/reward equation that companies can do, and potential gains in security are hard to compare against the costs.
"The view that the regulations need to change is a recognition that there is not a financial incentive for them to do that," Marshall said. "That's one of the things that is kind of an arrow in the quiver that has to be used judiciously."
And the cost to companies is not alone. The issue of government resources to provide data analysis and potentially enforcement of mandates raises important questions, Moulton said.
"The government doesn't have enough people to police themselves, so how are they going to go out and verify that companies are doing this?" he said.
Chvotkin voiced the same concern.
"It calls on the resources available to the government. How much are they willing to spend?" Chvotkin asked.
The DFARS proposed rule would also include a mandate to provide "adequate security," meaning the cost would be twofold: creating an appropriate security system and providing the manpower to produce the report for the Pentagon in the event of an intrusion.
But the concerns about cost are insignificant compared to what is being lost, Paller said.
"They're losing America's greatest treasures. Their fears are irrelevant," he said. "They've lost some of the stuff that our entire economic infrastructure is based upon."

Indian Team Visits Moscow for Su T-50 Flight Demo

NEW DELHI - A delegation of Indian military officers and technicians was in Moscow to witness the first public flight Aug. 16 of the Sukhoi T-50, the base platform of the Fifth-Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) that India and Russia have contracted to develop jointly.

A new Russian twin-engine jet fighter T-50 lands at Zhukovsky airfield as it takes part in MAKS-2011, the International Aviation and Space Show, in Zhukovsky, Russia, on Aug. 14. (Dmitry Kostyukov / AFP)

The aircraft, which made its maiden flight at a Far East airbase in Russia in January 2010, was rolled out for its first public viewing at the MAKS international air show outside Moscow, where two of the sleek silver prototypes are due to perform air stunts Aug. 16 under the watchful eye of Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.

India's Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. (HAL) and Russia's Rosoboronexport and Sukhoi Design Bureau are working together to develop and produce the plane.
The two countries have proposed building about 500 FGFAs to meet the needs of both the Indian and Russian air forces. India's FGFA order is expected to cost the country more than $25 billion over the next two decades.
The exact details of the pact between India and Russia on technical collaboration are still not known, Indian Air Force sources said.
But a Defence Ministry official here said that HAL and Rosoboronexport on Dec. 21 signed a preliminary contract for design and development of the aircraft by HAL and the Sukhoi Design Bureau at a cost of $295 million. The preliminary development phase will last 18 months. Full-scale design and development work will be taken up under a separate contract, which will be negotiated and signed toward the end of the preliminary phase, the ministry official said.
The induction of the FGFA into the Indian fleet is to begin in 2018 as the first prototype has already undergone several tests, the official added.
The FGFA will be a stealthy, lethal swing-role fighter with advanced avionics, 360-degree situational awareness, smart weapons, data links and high-end mission computers, the Indian Air Force has said.

U.S., South Korea Begin Drills; North Warns of War

SEOUL, South Korea - South Korea and the United States launched a massive joint military exercise on Aug. 16, prompting the North to condemn the maneuvers as provocative and warn that war could erupt.
The two allies have described the 10-day Ulchi Freedom Guardian exercise as defensive and routine, but the North habitually terms such joint drills a rehearsal for invasion and launches its own counter-exercises.

"The exercise started this morning," a spokesman of the U.S.-South Korea Combined Forces Command (CFC) told AFP, referring to the annual computer-assisted simulation command-post exercise.
All of CFC's major units are taking part, involving more than 530,000 troops, including some 3,000 military personnel from the United States and other bases around the Pacific region, CFC said.
CFC commander U.S. Gen. James D. Thurman said the drill was focused on "preparing, preventing and prevailing against the full range of current and future external threats" to South Korea and the region.
"We are applying lessons learned out of Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as those garnered by the Alliance's recent experiences with North Korean provocations on the peninsula and past exercises," he said.
Pyongyang condemned the exercise as "extremely provocative," calling it a preparation for an "all-out war" against the North and the "largest-ever nuclear war exercise".
"The Korean peninsula is faced with the worst crisis ever. An all-out war can be triggered by any accidents," the North's ruling communist party newspaper Rodong Sinmun said in a commentary.
Seoul and Washington wanted to use the latest exercises to build up their capability to mount surprise attacks on the North's nuclear and missile facilities, it said.
"The U.S. warmongers are planning to carry out a realistic war drill to remove our nuclear facilities with a mobile unit led by the U.S. 20th Support Command, which was sent to Iraq to find and disable weapons of mass destruction," it said.
"Our military and the people will not sit idle as U.S. imperialists mobilize massive military forces and threaten our sovereign rights," the commentary said.
It accused the United States of seeking to bring war to the Korean peninsula after Afghanistan and Iraq as a way to "extricate itself from its worsening economic crisis."
The CFC spokesman said that during the exercise, troops would train for a "wide variety of missions including those involving the location and security of chemical, biological, nuclear and radiological threats."
The allies will simulate the detection and destruction of North Korean atomic bombs, missiles and chemical weapons, Yonhap news agency said last week.
Professor Yang Moo-Jin of the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul said the North was unlikely to escalate tensions despite its criticism of the exercise, one of two annual Korean peninsula-wide drills by the CFC.
"The North is unlikely to raise tension at a time when diplomatic efforts are underway to resume dialogue" even though the North's statement is strongly-worded, Yang told AFP.
The North's military urged Seoul and Washington last week to show their willingness to work toward denuclearization by scrapping the exercise.
In an open letter published by its state media, Pyongyang also called for a peacekeeping mechanism to replace the current armistice that ended the 1950-1953 war.
A flurry of diplomatic efforts have been underway to resume stalled six-party disarmament talks involving the two Koreas, Russia, China, Japan and the United States.
Senior Pyongyang officials met their counterparts in Seoul and Washington last month. The meetings raised hopes that the talks - last held in December 2008 - could resume.
The North has repeatedly expressed a desire to return to the forum, but the United States has urged it to show more sincerity and mend ties with the South first.