Pakistan-U.S. Deal Aims at Haqqani Network

ISLAMABAD - U.S. and Pakistani officials appear to have sealed a wide-ranging counterterrorism agreement, including clauses aimed at the Haqqani network and its safe havens in North Waziristan.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton shakes hands with Pakistan Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar before their meeting on Sept. 18. (Stan Honda / AFP via Getty Images)

But much remains unclear about the specifics.

The deal appears to have been a major topic of conversation when U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Pakistani Foreign Minister Hina Rabani Khar met Sept. 18.
The following day, U.S Ambassador Cameron Munter called the deal a "substantial agreement," according to a report by the Associated Press of Pakistan.
A senior State Department official said the Pakistanis understand "the threat that the Haqqanis pose to them, and I think they recognize it's time for them to take action."
Yet the day after that, Khar played down the notion that Pakistan had been pressured to act against the network. The APP quoted her as saying the "stakes were very high in Afghanistan, and Pakistan was aware that it will have to deal with the baggage when the conflict was over."
She was alluding to the long-standing Pakistani fear that turmoil will follow a Western withdrawal from Afghanistan, as happened after the Soviets left.
Just what action, if any, Pakistan will take against the network is therefore uncertain.
Brian Cloughley, a former Australian defense attaché to Islamabad, said he does not believe a full-scale military campaign to clear North Waziristan is possible in the near term, not least because the Army has its hands full.
"At the moment, in the [Federally Administered Tribal Areas] and its surrounds, there are over 100,000 army troops," Cloughley said. "They cannot be redeployed from what they are currently doing, which is conducting operations and maintaining stability in the region."
He said the Army had hoped to at least hand over the Swat region to civil administration, "but there is no competent civil administration, and it will take another year at least for one to achieve even a semblance of capability in running affairs; same with Orakzai and other agencies."
He said if such an operation took two years, it would involve about 60,000 men, of which 1,000 could probably expect to be killed and 3,000 wounded, and he questioned whether Pakistan is willing to pay such a price.
Previous shortages of key equipment such as gunship and transport helicopters remain, as are mine-resistant, ambush protected vehicles such as the indigenous HIT Burraq.
However, analyst Haris Khan of the Pakistan Military Consortium think tank, said the military, having retrained and re-equipped, is now far better placed to mount an operation than it was.
He said the military is now much more experienced in fighting in the difficult terrain. Moreover, it has added helicopters, taken delivery of better Air Force munitions, linked the Navy's P-3 Orions' signals intelligence collection to Army ISAR assets, and improved coordination between the Army and the Air Force.
But Waqas Sajad, who directs the Institute of Strategic Studies here, said he believes other factors are staying Pakistan's hand. He said the Haqqani network had forged a "quid quo pro" with the Pakistani authorities. Moreover, it was well financed. Finally, it has people distributed all over Pakistan. Whether these operatives number in the hundreds, or potentially into the thousands, is unknown, but the possibility that they could open a "new front" all over the country is real, he said.
Sajad said there was, therefore, a limit to what Pakistan could do, but this did not mean it would do nothing. He said that although the "high command" of the network may now be in Afghanistan, the Pakistani military had the option of targeting an associated peripheral group.
He also said Pakistan should push to have the network included in negotiations to secure peace in Afghanistan, more so than groups and individuals who may perhaps have previously been influential but who do not hold much sway now.

U.S. Intel Software Crashes During Korea Exercise

Intelligence software that the U.S. would rely on in a war with North Korea froze up repeatedly during a joint military exercise in South Korea in August, hampering the ability of U.S. and South Korean commanders to watch the movements of simulated enemy forces, a senior intelligence official said.
The Distributed Common Ground System-Army (DCGS-A) software is designed to link intelligence analysts to processed communications intercepts, imagery and radar collections stored in massive databases. When American intelligence analysts tried to use the software to track simulated North Korean troop movements, the screens on their DCGS-A workstations sometimes went black, forcing them to reboot the software, the senior intelligence official said.

Analysts could not always feed the latest enemy positions into the Command Post of the Future, the large computer displays that U.S. commanders would rely on to view troop positions and orchestrate defenses with their South Korean counterparts.
"What happened is the volume of information essentially crashed the software," the senior intelligence official said. "We learned to manually do [data retrieval] in chunks of information so DCGS would not crash."
The problem was discovered during the 10-day Ulchi Freedom Guardian exercise, a computer-generated North Korean attack in which tens of thousands of American and South Korean troops were mobilized in and around Seoul. The Pentagon billed the exercise as a "command post exercise" that would improve coordination of U.S. and South Korean forces.
"Initial analysis indicates that the use of legacy hardware was likely the primary cause of the system reliability issues," said a spokesman for the DCGS-A office in an email. "Personnel running current DCGS-A hardware during the same exercise in Yongin reported no major interruptions, issues, or outages. The issues identified during this exercise are currently being evaluated/corrected as needed."
U.S. intelligence officials have lately expressed concern that the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have honed their ability to untangle insurgent networks and track people, but at the expense of practicing the more traditional military intelligence role of tracking forces during high-intensity conflicts involving artillery, tanks and fast-moving troop formations. This year's Freedom Guardian exercise offered a chance to show that DCGS-A, which is used by analysts and troops in Afghanistan, could perform well in a conventional war.
Software engineers will need to explore whether the greater volume of data stored in the conventional warfare database caused DCGS-A to lock up, the official said.
In a related problem, the DCGS-A system took 2 to 2½ minutes to nominate targets for bombing, a process that should take seconds.
Despite the problems, the senior intelligence official said the exercise should not be viewed as an indictment of the multibillion-dollar DCGS-A initiative.
"I'm going to make DCGS-A work," the official said.
All told, the DCGS-A system spent 10 out of 96 hours of planned operations locked up or being rebooted, the official said.

Russian Nuclear Sub Lightly Damaged in Collision

MOSCOW - A Russian nuclear-powered submarine suffered light damage to its hull after being hit by a fishing boat in the Pacific and is undergoing repairs in port, naval officials said Sept. 22.
No one was injured or radiation released in the accident, which occurred on the southeastern tip of the Kamchatka Peninsula facing the Bering Sea, news agencies quoted regional navy sources as saying.

"The submarine suffered insignificant damage to its external hull," an unnamed source told the RIA Novosti news agency.
"There was no release of radiation," another Russian Pacific Fleet source told Interfax.
The Svyatoy Georgiy Pobedonosets, a Delta III class submarine built for the Soviet Union in 1980, is equipped to carry 16 nuclear missiles.
But Russian naval craft are only equipped with weapons when they go out for planned exercises or other missions, or in cases of heightened alert.
Navy sources said the submarine, which was anchored at bay, was hit by a fishing vessel that itself had been trying to maneuver out of the way of another ship in tight quarters.
The incident came less than five months after a Russian atomic-powered icebreaker developed a nuclear leak in the frozen seas of the Arctic before limping to port near Murmansk, near Norway.
In Russia's deadliest naval accident, 118 sailors were killed in August 2000 when the Kursk nuclear-powered submarine sank after catching fire and being hit by a series of powerful on-board explosions in the Barents Sea.

China Launches Pakistani Patrol Craft

ISLAMABAD - The first of a pair of new Azmat-class fast attack craft built by China Shipbuilding Industry Corp. (CSOC) for the Pakistan Navy was launched by Pakistani naval chief Adm. Noman Bashir, at the Xhinggang shipyard in Tianjin, China, on Sept. 20.

The 500-600 ton, 60-meter craft carries eight C-802A/CSS-N-8 Saccade anti-ship missiles.
A tender for two fast-attack craft was released in February 2010. In December 2010, a contract for an undisclosed amount was awarded to CSOC. Construction commenced in March 2011, and according to the Associated Press of Pakistan, PNS Azmat is expected to enter service by April 2012.
Images purported to be of the vessel show it to have a stealthy, angled, slab-sided superstructure. No other confirmed details are available, however.
A second vessel in the class is due to be constructed in Karachi.
Usman Shabbir of the Pakistan Military Consortium think tank said the new fast-attack craft comes at a time when the Pakistan Navy is trying to modernize its capabilities while facing financial hardship.
Specifically, the Navy will use Azmat to "secure areas closer to shore, freeing up larger warships for other normal peacetime patrol duties or international commitments such as CTF-150 and CTF-151," which are the combined task forces patrolling waters near the Horn of Africa.
Shabbir did note the vessel's light air defense armament, though, saying it did not offer much protection.
Nevertheless, he welcomed its launch and said the new vessel is a further sign of Pakistan's increasing reliance on China for its defense needs.
"The Sino-Pak naval construction relationship is allowing this to happen", he said.
"This part of the overall Sino-Pak relationship will expand and deepen over time with more warships of various types, and the submarines that are currently undergoing construction in China for Pakistan," he said.
Indeed, during the launch ceremony, Bashir stated the present geo-political situation demanded further strengthening of Pakistan-China relations in order to safeguard regional peace, stability and prosperity. The launch of Azmat is a sign of the deepening Sino-Pak relationship, he said, stating, "This relationship over the years has matured in all fields, particularly in defense."

Iran: Turkey's NATO Radar to Protect Arch-Foe

TEHRAN - Turkey's hosting an early-warning radar as part of NATO's missile defense system is to protect Iran's arch-foe Israel, the official IRNA news agency cited the defense minister as saying on Sept. 22.
"Installation of the radar system is to defend the Zionist regime since this regime is on a downhill trajectory and America has been forced to get involved directly to save it," Ahmad Vahidi said.

"We will not allow any foreign forces to threaten our interests and we will strongly confront any threat," he added on the sidelines of a military parade marking the 31st anniversary of the start of a bloody eight-year war with Iraq.
Tehran has toughened its criticism of the Turkish plan to host the early warning radar system allocated by the United States to NATO, with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad criticizing "brother" Turkey.
Other officials in the Islamic republic have said the deployment would create tension and lead to "complicated consequences."
Leaders of the 28-member NATO alliance gave their backing last year for the Europe-wide ballistic missile shield, which U.S. officials say is aimed at thwarting missile threats from the Middle East, particularly Iran.
On Sept. 9, the foreign ministry in Ankara said the early warning radar will be deployed at a military facility base in Kurecik near Malatya in the southeast.
Tehran has made maintaining a good relationship with Ankara a priority in recent years, and has considered Turkey an ally for its refusal to implement Western sanctions against Tehran over its controversial nuclear program.
Tehran does not recognize the Jewish state, and Ahmadinejad has repeatedly dubbed the Holocaust a "lie" which he said was used as an excuse for Israel's creation.

German Navy Gets Capability to Strike Targets on Land

BONN, GERMANY - The German Navy received its first series-production RBS15 Mk3 type missile on Sept. 22, giving the Navy the capability to attack land targets from sea for the first time.
The heavyweight, fire-and-forget, anti-ship missile will become the primary weapon system of the service's new K130-class corvettes. RBS15 Mk3 has a range of well over 200 kilometers and can also be used to engage land targets from the sea.

The subsonic missile can strike targets in all weather and is equipped with a radar altimeter enabling extremely low sea-skimming. The missile uses GPS and a high-resolution radar seeker.
The German military will procure 30 systems for about 65 million euros ($88.99 million).
The primary contractor is German company Diehl BGT Defence, which has signed a cooperation deal with the Swedish developer of the RBS 15, Saab Bofors Dynamics. It includes marketing, production, deliveries, maintenance and future upgrades for both the Swedish and German navies, as well as for the export market.

China Strongly Condemns U.S.-Taiwan F-16 Deal

BEIJING - China on Sept. 22 strongly condemned a $5.85 billion U.S. deal to upgrade Taiwan's fleet of F-16 fighter jets, summoned the US ambassador and warned the move would undermine warming military relations.
China, which claims Taiwan as part of its territory, urged the United States to cancel the deal and said it had jeopardized recent improvements in military ties between the two world powers and affected relations with Taiwan.
But analysts said the deal, which stopped short of selling new planes to Taiwan, would probably not be as damaging as an earlier arms package that led to a break in China-U.S. military exchanges in 2010.
"The Chinese military expresses great indignation and strong condemnation," the defense ministry said in a strongly worded statement announcing it had called in the acting U.S. military attaché for talks.
"U.S. actions ... have caused serious damage to Sino-U.S. military relations and have seriously undermined the good momentum of the peaceful development of cross-strait relations," the statement said.
Vice Foreign Minister Zhang Zhijun urged Washington to "immediately cancel the wrong decision" and summoned U.S. Ambassador Gary Locke to protest against the deal, which was branded a "huge mistake" by China's top newspaper.
"If American politicians feel that the United States can ... irresponsibly and randomly damage China's core interests without paying the price, this is a major and huge mistake," said the People's Daily, considered the mouthpiece of China's Communist Party.
But Jean-Pierre Cabestan, political science professor at Hong Kong Baptist University, said Beijing had learned lessons from the 2010 break-off in military ties and was unlikely to react as strongly this time.
"They are going to react, to get angry, and the military may take measures to better counter these retrofitted F-16s, but they will not break military ties with the United States like they did before," he told AFP.
"They're (China) in a new phase - more flexible and accommodating, and with the Taiwanese electoral factor, it reduces their room for maneuver a lot, and it will force them not to overreact on this."
Taiwan's President Ma Ying-jeou of the Beijing-friendly Kuomintang party will seek re-election in January, and Cabestan said China would be keen not to cause any upsets ahead of the polls.
Russell Leigh Moses, a Beijing-based political analyst, said China's reaction was an exercise in "how to avoid slamming the door while shouting."
"I think that Beijing's outrage has multiple audiences, in particular those at home on the mainland and in Taiwan," he said. "There are ways in which they could have said hardly anything, but the consensus clearly was - we'll go into the default mode of being pretty upset and angry, but not like it was a year ago."
Taiwan first lodged a request to buy 66 F-16 C/D fighters - which have better radar and more powerful weapons systems than its F-16 A/Bs - in 2007 in response to China's growing military muscle.
The deal to upgrade the existing fleet includes equipment, parts, training and logistical support.
The Taiwan defense ministry said it was "another signal of the solid foundation for mutual trust and the close security cooperation between Taiwan and the United States."
Observers and media in Taiwan said that although the deal may mean little in any war with China, it represented a valuable sign of U.S. commitment to help the island's defense.
"This is a U.S. compromise to satisfy some of Taiwan's defense needs and maintain friendly ties with Taiwan without touching China's bottom-line by selling new jets," said Kenneth Wang, a military expert at Taiwan's Tamkang University.
Washington recognizes Beijing rather than Taipei but remains a leading arms supplier to the island of 23 million inhabitants, providing a source of continued U.S.-China tension.
However, relations between the U.S. and Chinese militaries have improved over the past year. In July, U.S. Navy Adm. Mike Mullen became the first chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff since 2007 to visit China.
Ties between China and Taiwan have improved since Ma came to power in 2008, but Beijing has refused to renounce the use of force against the island, even though it has ruled itself for more than six decades since their split in 1949.