Still-angry Pakistan Backs Out of Afghan Conference

ISLAMABAD - Pakistan decided Nov. 29 to boycott a key international conference on Afghanistan next month, ramping up its protest over lethal cross-border NATO air strikes that have plunged U.S. ties into deep crisis.

The decision was taken at a Pakistani cabinet meeting in the eastern city of Lahore, days after Islamabad confirmed it was mulling its attendance in the German city of Bonn, where Pakistan's participation was considered vital.

"The cabinet has decided not to attend the Bonn meeting," a government official told AFP on condition of anonymity.

The prime minister's office said the cabinet agreed that "unilateral action" such as the Nov. 26 strike in the tribal district of Mohmand and the May 2 killing of Osama bin Laden near the capital was "unacceptable."

U.S.-led investigators have been given until Dec. 23 to probe the attacks, threatening to prolong significantly Pakistan's blockade on NATO supplies into Afghanistan implemented in retaliation for the killings.

The U.S. military appointed Air Force Brig. Gen. Stephen Clark to lead the investigation into the attack.

The team, set to include a NATO representative, is yet to arrive in Afghanistan but an initial military assessment team went to the border at the weekend after the catastrophic strike that killed 24 Pakistani troops.

The Afghan and Pakistani governments are also being invited to take part.

There was no immediate reaction from Islamabad or Kabul, although some analysts voiced surprise that it will take as long as nearly four weeks.

A Western military official in Kabul said the schedule for the findings being delivered was "way quicker" than initially expected.

U.S.-Pakistani ties have been in free fall since a CIA contractor killed two Pakistanis in January, and the latest attack raises disturbing questions about the extent to which the two allies cooperate with each other.

Islamabad insists that the air strikes were unprovoked, but Afghan and Western officials have reportedly accused Pakistani forces of firing first.

"With the kind of technology available to the U.S. and NATO, it was expected they would be able to do it [the investigation] much earlier, not more than two weeks," Pakistani defence analyst Talat Masood told AFP.

In Pakistan, angry protests over the NATO strikes pushed into a fourth day, with 150 to 200 people demonstrating in Pakistani-administered Kashmir, setting fire to an American flag and an effigy of NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen.

The crowd carried banners and shouted: "Those who befriend America are traitors" and "We are ready for jihad," an AFP reporter said.

Pakistan has vowed no more "business as usual" with the United States. In addition to shutting its Afghan border, it has ordered Americans to vacate an air base reportedly used by CIA drones and a review of the alliance.

Yet behind the rhetoric, Islamabad has little wriggle room, being dependent on U.S. aid dollars and fearful of the repercussions for regional security as American troops wind down their presence in Afghanistan in the coming years.

In an interview with CNN, Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani stopped short of threatening to break the alliance altogether saying: "That can continue on mutual respect and mutual interest."

White House spokesman Jay Carney said U.S. President Barack Obama believed the latest incident was "a tragedy," and said Washington valued what he called an "important cooperative relationship that is also very complicated."

Last time Pakistan closed the border, in September 2010 after up to three soldiers were killed in a similar cross-border raid, it only reopened the route after the United States issued a full apology.

The U.S. military has insisted the war effort in Afghanistan would continue and has sought to minimize the disruption to regular supply lines.

Nearly half of all cargo bound for NATO-led troops runs through Pakistan.

About 140,000 foreign troops, including about 97,000 American forces, rely on supplies from the outside to fight the 10-year-old war in Afghanistan.

Yet so far, officials say there has been no sign that Islamabad would bar the U.S. aircraft from flying over Pakistan.

China's First Aircraft Carrier Starts Second Trial

BEIJING - China's first aircraft carrier began its second sea trial on Nov. 29 after undergoing refurbishments and testing, the government said, as tensions over maritime territorial disputes in the region ran high.

The 300-meter (990-foot) ship, a refitted former Soviet carrier called the Varyag, underwent five days of trials in August that sparked international concern about China's widening naval reach.

"China's aircraft carrier platform, after successfully completing its first sea trial in August, returned to the shipyard as planned for further refitting and testing," the defense ministry said in a brief statement.

"The work has been carried out and it set sail again on November 29 to carry out relevant scientific and research experiments."

Beijing only confirmed this year that it was revamping the old Soviet ship and has repeatedly insisted that the carrier poses no threat to its neighbors and will be used mainly for training and research purposes.

But the August sea trials were met with concern from regional powers including Japan and the United States, which called on Beijing to explain why it needs an aircraft carrier.

The Nov. 29 announcement comes against a background of heightened tensions over maritime disputes in the Asia-Pacific region, where China's growing assertiveness has put it on collision course with the United States.

President Barack Obama this month irritated Beijing with a drive to enhance the U.S. role as a regional power, positioning Marines in northern Australia and pushing for a potentially transformational trans-Pacific trade pact.

Beijing sees the initiatives as intruding into its own sphere of influence, with the dispute over the South China Sea putting the two major world powers' differences into stark focus.

China claims all of the strategic area, as does Taiwan, while four Southeast Asian countries declare ownership of parts of it, with Vietnam and the Philippines accusing Beijing's forces of increasing aggression there.

The region is a conduit for more than one-third of the world's seaborne trade and half its traffic in oil and gas, and major petroleum deposits are believed to lie below the seabed.

The announcement of the carrier's second sea trial comes after Beijing said last week it would conduct "routine" naval exercises in the Pacific Ocean before the end of November.

China reportedly bought the carrier's immense armored hull - with no engine, electrics or propeller - from Ukraine in 1998.

The PLA - the world's largest active military - is extremely secretive about its defense programs, which benefit from a huge and expanding military budget boosted by the nation's runaway economic growth.

Earlier this year, China announced military spending would rise 12.7 percent to 601.1 billion yuan ($91.7 billion) in 2011.

Russia Activates Missile Warning System Near EU

MOSCOW – Russia on Nov. 29 activated a radar warning system against incoming missiles in its exclave of Kaliningrad on the borders of the EU, in response to Western plans for a U.S. missile shield in Europe.

President Dmitry Medvedev announced that the Voronezh-DM station was moving on to immediate combat readiness, days after threatening to deploy missiles in Kaliningrad amid a growing dispute with the West.

Using rhetoric reminiscent of the Cold War, he added: "If this signal is not heard, we will deploy other methods of protection including the taking of tough countermeasures and the deployment of strike forces.""I expect that this step will be seen by our partners as the first signal of the readiness of our country to make an adequate response to the threats which the (Western) missile shield poses for our strategic nuclear forces," Medvedev said.

Medvedev said last week Russia was prepared to deploy Iskander missiles, which officials say have a range of up to 500 kilometres (310 miles), in the Kaliningrad exclave that borders EU members Poland and Lithuania.

Romania and Poland have agreed to host part of a revamped U.S. missile shield which Washington said is aimed solely at "rogue" states like Iran but Moscow believes would also target its own capability.

NATO member Turkey has decided to host an early warning radar at a military facility near Malatya in the southeast as part of the missile defence system.

Medvedev, who visited Kaliningrad to sign the decree on activating the station, said Russia needed to hear more than promises from the West to resolve the standoff.

"Verbal statements do not guarantee our interests. If other steps are made then of course we are ready to listen," Medvedev added in a statement quoted by Russian news agencies from Kaliningrad.

"We can no longer be content with verbal promises that the (U.S. missile shield) system is not aimed against Russia. These are empty statements and do not guarantee our security."

But he said that the activation of the Kaliningrad station "does not close the door for dialogue" with the United States on missile defense.

Kaliningrad is part of the former German East Prussia region that was annexed by the Soviet Union at the end of World War II and remains one of Moscow's prime territorial strategic assets.

The RIA Novosti news agency quoted Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov as saying that the station could keep track of 500 objects at a range of up to 6,000 kilometers.

The move comes in the run-up to legislative elections on Dec. 4, where Medvedev is leading the list of the ruling United Russia party amid an atmosphere of growing nationalism in Russia.

Medvedev has championed a reset of relations with the United States under President Barack Obama. But Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who traditionally has a more prickly relationship with the West, is set to become president in 2012.

An analyst said the decision to activate the system was important but had to be seen in a domestic context.

"Data from this station will allow Russia's leadership to make a decision about a retaliatory nuclear strike, should such a hypothetical need arise," said Mikhail Khodaryonok, editor of journal "Aerospace Defence."

But he described the announcement as mainly "pre-election rhetoric" given that both the U.S. missile shield and the Russian system are defensive in nature.

"You would really need to have a vivid imagination to link it to the U.S. missile defense system."

French Senate's Call: Buy Reaper, Not Heron UAV

PARIS - A left-led French Senate has adopted a budgetary amendment calling for procurement of the General Atomics Reaper UAV while safeguarding funds for development of a new-generation combat drone planned as a common project with Britain, the upper house said in a statement.

The amendment seeks to reverse a government decision to acquire the Heron TP drone from Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI), partnered with Dassault Aviation.

"The Senate wanted, in the general interest, to separate the operational needs of the Armed Forces from the industrial policy considerations," the amendment text said. "With this in mind, the Senators wanted, in the short term, to put priority on the safety of our troops by giving them the best equipment at the best price, in this case, the Reaper from General Atomics, while allowing, in the medium term, the emergence of an industrial sector by setting aside a larger amount of funds for French and European companies than that envisaged in the government's industrial plan."

The amendment, adopted Nov. 29 by a Socialist-led Senate, seeks to cut the amount for UAV acquisition in the draft 2012 defense budget law from 318 million euros ($423.8 million) to 209 million.

The 209 million euros is the amount General Atomics proposed in May for a non-French modified package consisting of seven air vehicles, two ground stations and maintenance for 10 years.

Under the Reaper offer, EADS would modify the U.S.-built UAV at a cost of 40 percent of the acquisition, or 88 million euros, bringing the total value of the package to 297 million euros, the amendment said.

That compares with an offer made by Dassault and IAI, also in May, for a package of seven modified Heron TP UAVs for 320 million euros. Modifications by Dassault, mainly adapting the satellite communications and integrating extra sensors, would bring the total amount to 370 million euros, the amendment said.

The Dassault-IAI deal also included two ground stations and 10 years' maintenance, the amendment said.

The senators debated the amendment until 4 a.m., a parliamentary official said.

"It was Homeric," the official said.

But senators of both right and left voted in favor of the amendment, which pushes the government to buy the American Reaper UAV, which can be armed.

The U.S. Air Force's selection of Boeing over Airbus for its KC-X tanker program made it extremely difficult for French senators to call for the purchase of a U.S. system, the official said. But the lack of operational and industrial sense in the French government's decision to buy the Israeli drone meant the Senate adopted the amendment, he said.

Besides the cut in procurement funding, the amendment called for the move of 80 million euros into technology studies for the future Anglo-French drone, and 29 million euros for upgrades to the current Harfang medium-altitude, long-endurance UAV operating in Afghanistan.

The 80 million euros for research studies would benefit Dassault and/or EADS for work on the planned Anglo-French program, rather than IAI, the amendment said.

Although the amendment does not specify the money should go to the unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV) project in the Lancaster House Treaty, that was the intention, the parliamentary official said.

The amendment pointed up concern over the lack of competition in the government's pick of the Heron TP.

"This decision to choose the Heron TP drone, with a tender, is difficult to understand: it is financially disadvantageous, militarily debatable and industrially hazardous," the amendment said.

Defense Minister Gérard Longuet told the Senate's foreign affairs and defense committee that the Heron TP was 30 percent more expensive and 20 percent less effective than the Reaper, the amendment said.

Dassault was not available for comment.

A bipartisan group from the Senate foreign affairs and defense committee drafted the amendment, which will go to a joint committee of seven senators and seven members of parliament from the National Assembly for review.

It is unlikely the joint committee will agree on the same text, and the lower house, the National Assembly, will probably carry the day, the parliamentary official said.

The Senate and National Assembly defense committees put the safety of service personnel above any political concerns, an industry source said.

India To Develop AIP Technology for Subs

NEW DELHI - Even as the Indian Navy has announced that it is floating a global tender to procure six air independent propulsion (AIP) submarines for $11 billion, Indian Defence Minister A.K. Antony told the parliament Nov. 28 that the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) is developing such technology itself.
"The DRDO proposes to develop a technology to reduce vulnerability of the submarines available with the Indian Navy. The Naval Material Research Laboratory (NMRL), Ambernath, under the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), is progressing a technology demonstration project, 'Development of Land-based Prototype for Air Independent Propulsion (AIP),' for submarine propulsion," Antony told the parliament in a written reply, according to an Indian Defence Ministry statement.

The system is likely to be demonstrated by 2015, adds the release.
Last year, the Defence Ministry cleared the plan to procure six conventional submarines with AIP technology, and the request for proposals is likely to be floated by the end of the year or early 2012.
In 2004, India contracted the licensed production of six Scorpene conventional submarines for about $3.9 billion, but the production has been delayed by almost two years.
Under the proposal, six submarines are to be procured, of which three are likely to be built at the state-owned Mazagon Docks in Mumbai; one built at the state-owned Hindustan Shipyard in Visakhapatnam, with the help of a foreign collaborator; and two purchased directly from the overseas vendor.
The six submarines are being procured under the Navy's Project-75, and the subs will be equipped with stealth, land-attack capability and the ability to incorporate future technologies, such as AIP systems, to boost their operational capabilities.
The RfP is likely to be issued to French company DCNS, Germany's HDW and Russia's Amur Design Bureau.

French, Germans Should Team on UAV: German Minister

PARIS - Germany's junior defense minister is calling for France and Germany to cooperate on a common UAV program rather than pursue competing projects, business daily La Tribune reported Nov. 28.
Asked in an interview on what programs France and Germany should collaborate, Stéphane Beelemans said: "Drones, for example. The projects being studied in France and Germany reflect a split from the past.

"And I say it clearly in France and Germany to our companies. I don't believe in two projects of this scale at the European level. And I find it hard to believe there is the political will to realize two competing projects. There is enough political will to do a common project," he said, according to the paper.
There was no sense in having two different kinds of equipment, for reasons of interoperability, maintenance, use and budgets, he said.
The competing projects are the next-generation medium-altitude, long-endurance (MALE) Talarion advanced UAV, proposed by EADS to France, Germany and Spain; and the Telemos air vehicle from BAE Systems and Dassault, pitched to Britain and France.
EADS seeks a place at the top table in the Telemos project alongside BAE and Dassault, but Dassault will only consider a junior subcontractor role for the pan-European company, retaining leadership firmly in the hands of the Anglo-French team.
France, Germany and Spain paid for a 60 million euro ($79.5 million) risk-reduction study for the advanced UAV, but EADS has been unable to convert that into a development and production contract.
Work on a next-generation MALE drone is seen as vital to maintaining a design engineering capability in Europe's military aircraft sector in the absence of development for a manned jet fighter.
The Anglo-French military cooperation treaty calls for joint work on a new-generation MALE surveillance UAV, and collaboration on an unmanned combat aerial vehicle.

Pakistan Blockade Raises NATO Supply Questions

KABUL, Afghanistan - Supplies for NATO in Afghanistan have been hit by a Pakistani blockade enforced after a cross-border strike killed 24 of its troops, but it remains unclear how seriously coalition forces will suffer.
There are around 140,000 foreign troops in landlocked Afghanistan who rely on fuel, food and equipment brought in from outside.

Nearly half of all cargo bound for foreign troops routes through Pakistan, which closed the border to NATO traffic on Nov. 26. But the coalition force insists its fight against the Taliban will not be affected.
"ISAF uses a vast supply and distribution network to ensure coalition forces remain well-stocked in order to carry out their assigned mission across Afghanistan," said Lt. Gregory Keeley, a spokesman for the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force in Kabul.
Some 48 percent of all coalition cargo usually passes through two points on the Pakistan border, while for U.S. forces, who provide around 100,000 troops in Afghanistan, the figure is around 30 percent, he said.
ISAF and the U.S. have been building up alternative supply routes through Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan from the north of Afghanistan as relations between Washington and Islamabad have deteriorated this year.
The so-called Northern Distribution Network has been built up to address concerns about over-reliance on Pakistani supply lines amid what was a growing U.S. troop commitment in Afghanistan.
The northern route accounts for 52 percent of coalition cargo transport and 40 percent for the U.S., which also receives around 30 percent of its supplies by air, Keely said.
But U.S. officials admit that the Pakistan route is cheaper and shorter.
John Bolton, former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, told Fox News that U.S. forces also keep stockpiles in case supply lines are choked as in the past.
"This is not the first time, our forces do have stockpiles on the Afghan side of the border," he said. "It is obviously something that needs to be corrected but there is no immediate concern."
Keeley would not discuss how long stockpiles would tide foreign troops over, calling it an "operational issue."
The last time the Pakistani border was closed to foreign military supplies was in September last year for 10 days following a previous NATO strike that killed up to three Pakistani soldiers.
The deadliest such incident prior to the Nov. 26 strike came in June 2008 when another NATO strike killed 11 Pakistani soldiers.
Some warn that ISAF will need to take swift action to address Nov. 26's murky incident to ensure that supplies are not disrupted in the longer-term.
"Even a closure lasting more than a week should not impact operations on the ground, especially now that stockpiles have been established and the alternative Northern Distribution Network has been significantly expanded," intelligence analysts Stratfor wrote in assessment of the situation.
"But Washington is not yet completely free of its reliance on supplies moved through Pakistan and so will need to find a way to resume the flow."
Retired U.S. Gen. Barry McCaffrey told NBC News that he believed the coalition effort in Afghanistan was "one step short of a strategic crisis."
"I do not believe we can continue operations at this rate," he said. "So we've got to talk to them, we've got to pay them, we've got to apologize for this strike. We have no option, literally."