Japan F-X Announcement Due Within Hours

TOKYO - The Japanese government's sudden decision to delay the announcement of a winner in its multibillion-dollar fighter program is widely regarded as a sign that Lockheed Martin's F-35 has emerged as a late frontrunner despite concerns over cost and local workshare, according to government and industry sources.

F-35 JOINT STRIKE Fighters sit on the tarmac at Eglin Air Force Base, Fla., earlier this year. Japan is scheduled to make a decision Dec. 20 on the winner of its F-X fighter competition, and some say the F-35 is the favorite. (U.S. Air Force)

Japan's National Security Council was slated to announce Dec. 16 whether the F-35, Boeing's F/A-18 Super Hornet or the Eurofighter Typhoon will replace about 40 Mitsubishi F-4EJ Kai Phantoms starting in early 2017 under a contract valued at about $8 billion. The announcement has been moved to Tuesday, Dec. 20.

When the F-X competition began, the aim was to buy 48 air superiority fighters with little development cost and a large share of work for Japanese industry. The F-35 was considered a long shot because development was slipping, unit costs growing, and workshare prospects were more limited.

But Tokyo began to look more favorably on the plane after Japan was denied Lockheed's stealthy F-22 and concerns about China's military escalated.

Early last week, Japan's defense establishment was thrown into a furor following local media reports that the F-35 was the likely winner.

Senior government officials denied that any decision had been made.

But one source said the Joint Strike Fighter had long ago moved to the front of the pack because government officials decided that they wanted stealth, as much high technology as possible and a good relationship with the United States.

"The Japanese always wanted the JSF," said one source. "So they ended up with the result they wanted, and now the question is whether they can sustain it."

Picking the F-35 would invite criticism from the opposition and media of the plane's cost, schedule delays and a recent spate of reports that focused on shortcomings highlighted during development.

Critics may also charge that the competition has been less transparent than claimed, although executives of the three main contenders have said the MoD has been painstakingly careful to make the contest as fair and open as possible.

The stakes in the F-X competition go beyond replacing the F-4s; the winner is likely also to get the bigger prize of replacing more than 100 F-15Js within the next 10 years.

INTERNAL SPLIT

Shinichi Kiyotani, a military analyst and journalist, said the sudden delay in the announcement points to divisions within the MoD and the ruling Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) cabinet.

"There are internal discussions within the MoD; some bureaus are sold on it [the F-35], others aren't," Kiyotani said. "There is division at the top of the MoD, and there are still internal discussions within the DPJ Cabinet. There are so many problems with the F-35, it's seen as a huge risk."

Among other concerns, there's the question of whether the F-35 will offer enough local workshare to support Japan's ailing aerospace sector. The country's only active fighter-jet assembly line is slated to shut down after rolling out just six more Mitsubishi F-2s, a derivative of the F-16.

That consideration was seen as giving the edge to Eurofighter, which vowed to give Japanese industry as much as 95 percent of the work, or to Boeing, which said that more than 80 percent would be available. Lockheed offered less, but argued that access to next-generation production capabilities and coveted stealth technology outweighed financial value.

PERCEIVED RISKS

Kiyotani also noted concerns about the recent news of a slowdown in production of the F-35 caused by some lingering technical problems and the potential that U.S. politics and budget cuts could shrink the Pentagon's own purchase.

"The F-35 is already seen as very expensive. If the number of units is only a few a year, then that will push up costs," he said. "Nobody believes the Lockheed Martin story of an eventual $65 million or so a plane."

Alessio Patalano, a Japan military expert at King's College in London, agreed on the risks involved.

"Of these three options, the F-35 is on paper the one with superior performance characteristics, but it is an operationally untested aircraft, widely reported to run into constant escalating costs and with serious issues in relation to delivery timetables," Patalano said. "More importantly, there is no way to know at the moment if its ... superior stealth capabilities will make a difference in real-time missions: By the time it will enter into service, technology will have provided new ways to reduce the impact of this feature. Second, there is little guarantee as to whether once it is fully armed, this configuration will not have an impact on its stealth capabilities."

A senior Japanese industry source speaking on condition of anonymity also said industry doesn't yet fully buy into the F-35's value proposition.

"We have not yet got concrete information of how we will be involved," the executive said. "It is said that Japanese industry will assemble substantial portions of the F-35, according to the media, but we aren't sure exactly what systems and components Lockheed Martin will be allowed to permit industry to produce in the future.

"I am afraid that delays will happen that will increase costs next year or a few years later. Some feel that it is better that we avoid such a situation. Others want to us to pursue the newest fighter like some kind of super car," he said. "If Japan doesn't get the final version of the F-35 until a decade later, we may really need a different fighter. If there are delays, then the government may well have to put up with purchasing lower numbers."

Jun Okumura, a counselor for Eurasia Group, said the Japanese government will likely opt for the F-35 based on political reasons.

"The administration [of Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda] places great value on the bilateral alliance, particularly at a time when a rising China is making waves in Japan's near abroad and beyond - including hints of its own Gen-5 program - and the U.S. has decided to reupholster its engagement in the Asia-Pacific," he said. "All that the government sources are willing to say now is that nothing has been decided yet. Assuming that it is indeed the F-35, though, it means that MoD could have, but did not, go for an interim, Gen-4+ solution while waiting for the questions around the F-35, including timing, to clear up."

U.S. Special Forces Now in Central African Republic

BANGUI, Central African Republic - U.S. Special Forces troops have set up a base in the Central African Republic as part of their regional hunt for fighters from the Ugandan-born Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) group, military sources said.

"The deployment of this contingent, the size of which is unknown, was carried out very discreetly with Ugandan military aircraft," a Central African military official said Dec. 19 on condition of anonymity.

The U.S. troops set up a base in Obo and are expected to coordinate their efforts with local government forces and Ugandan soldiers.

U.S. President Barack Obama in October announced he was sending 100 Special Forces troops to Kampala, Uganda, to help Uganda track down LRA chief and international fugitive Joseph Kony, who has wreaked havoc over four nations for more than two decades.

Besides Obo, the U.S. forces also have a forward base in South Sudan. They began deploying in Uganda earlier this month.

The rebels currently number several hundred, a fraction of their strength at their peak but still include a core of hardened fighters infamous for mutilating civilians and abducting children for troops and sex-slaves.

The majority of U.S. troops will be based in Uganda while a smaller number will be based in jungle areas in neighboring countries to advise regional armies tracking the rebels, US officials say.

Tens of thousands of people have been killed since Kony took up arms in the late 1980s, initially against the Ugandan government.

The International Criminal Court has a warrant against Kony, one of the continent's most wanted men.

Driven out of Uganda, the guerrillas have since scattered across a vast region of the Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of Congo and South Sudan, recruiting fighters from those nations over the years.

The LRA emerged from the frustrations of Uganda's marginalized Acholi ethnic group against the government, but its leaders have since dropped their national political agenda for the narrow objective of pillage and plunder.

Pakistan blames “Afghan commander” for Nato attack: BBC

KARACHI: According to a BBC report, Pakistan’s military officials on Monday blamed an Afghan commander for the November 26 Nato strike on Salala check post in Mohmand agency, DawnNews reported.

The British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) reported that the accused Afghan commander conspired on the instructions of Indian and Afghan intelligence to dismantle Pakistan’s ties with US and Nato.

According to the published report, Pakistani military officials were probing the incident on their own and also handed few details of the investigative report to their Nato counterparts across the border on Monday.

Pakistani officials demanded action against the accused Afghan National Army commander by Nato officials in Afghanistan.

Pakistan’s investigative report did not indicate involvement of any American officials in the attack.

According to the report Afghani troops, without any prior notice, were patrolling an area at Pak-Afghan border which required 72 hours prior notice to Pakistani forces.

The troops deployed at Salala check post opened fire on Afghan patrol team considering them militants and subsequently Nato air defence helicopters, came to afghan team’s rescue, attacked the Pakistani post.

According to Pakistan officials, Afghans knew exact location of the post hence calling Nato for help was a pre-planned scheme.

However the ISPR rebuffed the BBC report calling it inaccurate.

N. Korea Test Fires Short-Range Missile

SEOUL, South Korea - North Korea test-fired a short-range missile off its east coast on Monday, the same day it announced the death of leader Kim Jong-Il, South Korea's Yonhap news agency said.

A WOMAN HANDS out free newspapers with an image of the late North Korean leader, Kim Jong-il, in Hong Kong on Monday. North Korean state-run television announced today that Kim Jong-il died at the age of 69. (Aaron Tam / AFP via Getty Images)

The agency quoted an unnamed government official as saying the missile launch was unrelated to the announcement that Kim had died Saturday of a heart attack. "North Korea test-fired a short-range missile this morning ... it has been [closely] monitored by our military authorities," said the official, as quoted by Yonhap.

Seoul's defense ministry declined to confirm the report. The missile is believed to have a range of about 120 kilometres (72 miles), he said, adding the North was apparently trying to improve the weapon. North Korea has been testing its new KN-06 missile, a modified version of the KN-01 and KN-02 ground-to-ground missiles, Yonhap said.

The communist country has frequently conducted short-range missile tests in recent years. South Korean officials say they are part of routine exercises but the tests are sometimes timed to coincide with periods of tension.

South Korea put its military on alert as the North's state television announced that the 69-year-old leader had died.

U.S. Forces Leave Iraq After Nine Years

IRAQ-KUWAIT BORDER, Kuwait - The last U.S. forces left Iraq and entered Kuwait on Dec. 18, nearly nine years after launching a divisive war to oust Saddam Hussein, and just as the oil-rich country grapples with renewed political deadlock.

SOLDIERS WAVE TO those arriving in the last American military convoy to depart Iraq after crossing over the border into Kuwait on Dec. 18 in Camp Virginia, Kuwait. (Mario Tama / Getty Images)

The last of roughly 110 vehicles carrying 500-odd troops mostly from the 3rd Brigade, 1st Cavalry Division, crossed the border at 7:38 a.m., leaving just 157 military trainers at the U.S. embassy, in a country where there were once nearly 170,000 troops on 505 bases. It ended a war that left tens of thousands of Iraqis and nearly 4,500 American soldiers dead, many more wounded, and 1.75 million Iraqis displaced, after the U.S.-led invasion unleashed brutal sectarian killing.

"It feels good, it feels real good" to be out of Iraq, Sgt. Duane Austin told AFP after getting out of his vehicle in Kuwait. "It's been a pretty long year - it's time to go home now."

The 27-year-old father-of-two, who completed three tours in Iraq, added: "It's been a long time, coming and going. It's been pretty hard on all of us ... (It will) be a nice break to get back, knowing that it's over with now."

The last vehicles transporting U.S. troops out of Iraq left the recently handed over Imam Ali Base outside the southern city of Nasiriyah at 2:30 a.m. to make the 220-mile journey south to the Kuwaiti border.

They travelled down a mostly deserted route, which U.S. forces paid Shiite tribal sheikhs to inspect regularly to ensure no attacks could take place. Five hours later, they crossed a berm at the Kuwaiti border lit with floodlights and ringed with barbed wire.

"I am proud - all Iraqis should be proud, like all those whose country has been freed," 26-year-old baker Safa, who did not want to give his real name, told AFP in Baghdad. "The Americans toppled Saddam, but our lives since then have gone backward."

A 50-year-old mother-of-four who gave her name only as Umm Mohammed, or mother of Mohammed, added: "I don't think we can ever forgive the Americans for what they did to us."

The withdrawal comes as Iraq struggles with renewed political deadlock as its main Sunni-backed bloc said it was boycotting parliament and Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, a Shiite, moved to oust one of his deputies, a Sunni Arab.

Maliki sent an official letter to parliament urging MPs to withdraw confidence in Deputy Prime Minister Saleh al-Mutlak, a member of the secular Iraqiya party, after Mutlak accused him of being "worse than Saddam," an aide to the premier said.

Later on Dec. 18, Vice-President Tareq al-Hashemi, also a Sunni and an Iraqiya member, was escorted off a plane at Baghdad airport as security forces arrested two of his bodyguards on "terrorism charges," officials and a witnesses said.

Earlier, a security official told AFP that 10 of Hashemi's guards had been detained and were being questioned in connection with terror attacks.

A day earlier, Iraqiya, which emerged as the largest bloc in inconclusive 2010 polls but was unable to form a government, said it was boycotting parliament in protest at what it said was Maliki's centralization of power.

Iraqiya, which controls 82 of the 325 seats in parliament and nine ministerial posts, has not, however, pulled out of Iraq's national unity government.

It said the government's actions, which it claimed included stationing tanks and armored vehicles outside the houses of its leaders in Baghdad's heavily fortified Green Zone, "drives people to want to rid themselves of the strong arm of central power as far as the constitution allows them to."

Provincial authorities in three Sunni-majority provinces north and west of Baghdad have all moved take up the option of similar autonomy to that enjoyed by Kurds in north Iraq, drawing an angry response from Maliki.

Key political issues such as reform of the mostly state-run economy and a law to regulate and organize the lucrative energy sector also remain unresolved, to say nothing of an explosive territorial dispute between Arabs and Kurds centered around the northern oil hub of Kirkuk.

Dec. 18's completion of the withdrawal brings to a close nearly nine years of American military involvement in Iraq, beginning with a "shock and awe" campaign in 2003 to oust Saddam, which many in Washington believed would see U.S. forces conclude their mission within months.

But key decisions taken at the time have since been widely criticized as fuelling what became a bloody Sunni Arab insurgency, in particular dissolving the Iraqi army and purging the civil service of all members of Saddam's Baath Party, including lower-rankers.

The insurgency eventually sparked communal bloodshed, particularly after the February 2006 bombing of a Shiite shrine in the predominantly Sunni city of Samarra by al-Qaida. More than 100,000 Iraqis have been reported killed in violence since the invasion, according to British NGO Iraq Body Count.

The bloodshed was only quelled when then-U.S. president George W. Bush ordered a "surge" of American troops to Iraq, and Sunni tribal militias sided with U.S. forces against al-Qaida.

Baghdad and Washington signed a 2008 pact that called for the withdrawal by the end of this year, and in the summer of last year, the U.S. declared a formal end to combat operations while maintaining fewer than 50,000 troops in Iraq.

The U.S. embassy will now retain just 157 U.S. soldiers, for training Iraqi forces, and a group of Marines for security.

Attacks in Iraq remain common but violence has declined significantly since its peak.

Iraq has a 900,000-strong security force that many believe is capable of maintaining internal security but lacks the means to defend its borders, airspace and territorial waters.

Some also fear a return to bloody sectarianism, doubt the strength of Iraq's political structures, and feel that Maliki has entrenched his powerbase to the detriment of Iraq's minorities.

Taiwan Receives Two U.S. Early Warning Aircraft

TAIPEI - Taiwan received two upgraded early warning aircraft from the United States on Dec. 18, the island's air force said, as part of an arms deal that upset China-U.S. relations.

The arrival of the E-2K aircraft in southern Kaohsiung city brings to four the number of such planes in Taiwan's air force, it said, after they were sent to the United States last year for upgrades.

Taiwan acquired four E-2Ts in 1995 and added two E-2K, an improved version of the Grumman Hawkeye series, in 2006.

A pair of E-2Ts were transported to the United States for upgrading last month, as part of a $6.5 billion arms sale agreed with Taiwan in 2008, which also included advanced interceptor Patriot missiles, Apache attack helicopters and submarine-launched missiles.

Analysts say the E-2K - an all-weather early warning and control system platform with an upgraded radar, software, avionics and propellers - will further reduce warning time if China launched an air attack on the island.

Ties between Taipei and Beijing have improved markedly since Ma Ying-jeou of the China-friendly Kuomintang party came to power in 2008 promising to boost trade links and allow more Chinese tourists to visit the island.

But Beijing still sees Taiwan as part of its territory awaiting reunification, by force if necessary, even though the island has governed itself since 1949 at the end of a civil war.

China has repeatedly threatened to invade Taiwan should the island declare formal independence, prompting Taipei to seek more advanced weapons, largely from the United States.

U.S. Vows to Back Turkey Over Kurdish Rebels

ANKARA - The United States will maintain its support of Turkey in the fight against Kurdish rebels, visiting U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said Dec. 16.

"In my discussions here in Ankara, I made very clear that the United States would continue to assist Turkey in confronting this threat," Panetta told a press conference.

The United States said in October it planned to sell Turkey with three new Super Cobra attack helicopters for the campaign against the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), in a deal worth $111 million.

The PKK, listed as a terrorist group by Ankara and much of the international community including Washington, took up arms in Kurdish-majority southeast Turkey in 1984, sparking a conflict that has claimed about 45,000 lives.

The United States also said in November it was redeploying four Predator drones to Turkey from northern Iraq, with the withdrawal of U.S. troops from the country.

"We're prepared to discuss further efforts to try to improve the capabilities" of Turkey regarding drones, Panetta said without elaborating.

Some members of the U.S. Congress are opposed to the possible provision of drones to Ankara as they are concerned about the strained ties between Turkey and Israel.

"We try to share that information with the Congress so that they understand why this is important we take those steps. We continue to explore other steps that can be taken to assist Turkey in the effort to deal with the PKK," Panetta said.

Relations between one-time allies Turkey and Israel plunged into crisis after Israeli commandos killed nine Turks on board a flagship of a flotilla bound for the Gaza Strip last year.