Dutch F-35s Assume NATO Nuclear Role; Russian Expert Calls for Nuclear Test

 

Starting June 1, 2024, the Royal Netherlands Air Force (RNLAF) will transition from F-16 Fighting Falcons to advanced F-35 aircraft for NATO’s nuclear deterrence mission, as announced by the Dutch government. This move positions the Netherlands as the first European nation to use the F-35 for this role, marking a significant upgrade in NATO’s nuclear deterrence capabilities.

On May 30, Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren informed the House of Representatives about the transition, which underscores the Netherlands' commitment to NATO's security framework. The F-35 has undergone rigorous testing and certification, achieving initial certification for the deterrence mission in November 2023 and full certification to carry the B61-12 thermonuclear bomb in March 2024.

The transition has already seen Dutch F-35s replace F-16s in the NATO Quick Reaction Alert (QRA) detachment as of March 29, 2024. Volkel Air Base will host the new Dual-Capable Aircraft F-35 squadron, which will eventually deploy the new B61-12 bombs, reaffirming the Netherlands' dedication to NATO’s nuclear deterrence strategy.

In light of this development, Russian expert Dmitry Suslov has called for a "demonstrative" nuclear explosion to deter Western support for Ukraine. Suslov, part of the Moscow-based Council for Foreign and Defense Policy, suggests that a non-combat nuclear test could serve as a stark reminder of Russia’s nuclear capabilities and deter further Western intervention.

Suslov’s proposal, published in Profil magazine, argues that such a test would have a profound psychological impact on Western leaders, reinforcing the deterrent power of nuclear weapons. He also recommended strategic nuclear exercises and warnings to countries supplying Ukraine, suggesting potential global targeting of their assets if they retaliate.

This suggestion follows President Vladimir Putin's warning to the West against allowing Ukraine to strike deep inside Russia, which he claimed could lead to global conflict. While Suslov does not hold an official government position, his think tank’s influence on Russian policy lends weight to his proposal. The Kremlin has reiterated that Russia’s nuclear policy remains unchanged but has recently conducted tactical nuclear weapons drills in response to what it views as escalating Western rhetoric.

This development underscores the ongoing tension and strategic maneuvering between NATO and Russia amidst the broader context of the Ukraine conflict.

US Navy Enhances Sea-Based Nuclear Deterrence Amid China Tensions

 

The United States is boosting its nuclear deterrence by developing sea-based nuclear cruise missiles to counter threats from China and Russia. This initiative comes as tensions with these adversaries escalate.

Currently, the U.S. nuclear triad includes land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), air-launched cruise missiles, and sea-based weapons. However, the Pentagon is now focusing on enhancing its sea-based nuclear capabilities to ensure a reliable second-strike option, crucial if land-based and air-launched systems are compromised in a first strike.

Navy Vice Adm. Johnny R. Wolfe Jr., Director for Strategic Systems, testified before the Senate Armed Services strategic forces subcommittee, emphasizing the deterrent role of ballistic missile submarines, which remain on alert and undetectable. This capability ensures the U.S. can retaliate effectively if attacked.

Alongside Air Force Gen. Thomas A. Bussiere, Commander of Air Force Global Strike Command, Vice Adm. Wolfe detailed the modernization efforts of the Navy's nuclear triad, highlighting the new sea-launched cruise missile (SLCM-N). This missile is designed to be launched from attack submarines and surface vessels, rather than just ballistic missile submarines.

Wolfe pointed out the challenges of reviving the industrial base needed for SLCM-N production and the significant investments required for concurrent nuclear modernization programs. The SLCM-N aims to counter the expanding nuclear arsenals of Russia and China, with Russia possessing nearly a thousand tactical nuclear weapons and China having around 500 nuclear warheads.

A previous Pentagon report noted that China's Jin-class ballistic missile submarines, equipped with JL-3 missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads, are conducting near-continuous patrols in the South China Sea, posing a significant threat to U.S. security.

The introduction of the SLCM-N marks the first new U.S. nuclear weapon since the end of the Cold War, signaling to adversaries that the U.S. remains capable of responding to any nuclear threat. This development is essential for maintaining strategic stability and deterring potential nuclear attacks.

Vice Adm. Wolfe stressed the need for investments in infrastructure, human capital, and the industrial base to achieve nuclear modernization. He highlighted the necessity of balancing the SLCM-N program with ongoing Navy initiatives and the importance of continued support from Congress to deliver a reliable sea-based strategic deterrent capability.

As the U.S. transitions from Ohio-class to Columbia-class submarines, maintaining the current missile inventory and ensuring a seamless transition between the classes are critical priorities.

Sen. Deb Fischer emphasized the need for diverse deterrence options, and Wolfe concurred, noting that nuclear modernization requires careful planning and time to balance various operational needs and strategic goals.

Ukraine Gets Green Light to Use F-16s for Strikes on Russian Territory

 Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen announced that Ukraine is authorized to use Danish-supplied F-16 fighter jets to strike military targets within Russian territory, provided these actions comply with the rules of war. Speaking on May 30 in Brussels, Rasmussen stressed that as long as the strikes focus on military installations, they remain within international law.

In July 2023, Denmark and the Netherlands formed a "fighter coalition" to support Ukraine, pledging to supply F-16s and offer essential training for Ukrainian pilots and technicians. This decision is part of a broader Western debate about removing restrictions on the use of Western weapons on Russian soil. Despite concerns from Washington and Berlin, Rasmussen emphasized that this initiative is not a "blank check" for indiscriminate attacks but aims to reduce Russia's offensive capabilities.

Russian Ambassador to Denmark, Vladimir Barbin, warned that using Danish weapons on Russian territory could escalate the conflict uncontrollably. Nonetheless, Denmark and several other nations advocate for lifting these restrictions, asserting that Ukraine must defend itself against assaults.

Currently, eleven Western countries, including France, the UK, the Netherlands, Poland, Sweden, Finland, the Czech Republic, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Canada, have agreed to permit Ukraine to target military installations within Russian territory using their arms. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also endorsed this approach after discussions with French President Emmanuel Macron, allowing Ukraine to use Western weapons "within international law" against Russian military bases.

The Danish F-16s, acquired in the 1980s, are advanced multirole fighter jets known for their versatility and sophisticated avionics. They can carry various weapons, including air-to-air and air-to-ground missiles. The F-16s, powered by either Pratt & Whitney F100 or General Electric F110 turbofan engines, achieve speeds over Mach 2 and have a combat radius of about 340 miles with internal fuel, extendable with external tanks and aerial refueling.

Earlier this week, Belgium announced it would supply Ukraine with 30 F-16 fighter jets, with the first deliveries expected this year. This brings the total number of F-16s committed to Ukraine to 85, including contributions from the Netherlands, Denmark, and Norway. Ukrainian pilots are currently training in the USA, Denmark, and Romania to operate these jets.

Pentagon Secures $4 Billion to Aid Taiwan Amid Tensions with China

 Last fall, the Pentagon urged the House Armed Services Committee for assistance in supporting Taiwan, emphasizing the need for funding to replace its own stocks of military supplies. Previously, Congress authorized the Defense Department to send up to $1 billion annually from its own inventory to Taiwan, but without the necessary funding to replenish these supplies.

During the 2023 hearing, Ely Ratner, head of Pentagon policy for the Indo-Pacific region, highlighted the lack of financial resources. However, in April, Congress passed a $95 billion defense bill, allocating about $4 billion for potential Taiwan aid, with nearly half earmarked for replenishing donated stocks.

This week, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin attended the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, discussing regional security and meeting with his Chinese counterpart amid heightened military exercises around Taiwan by China. Meanwhile, the Pentagon's system for sending aid to Taiwan is processing another cycle, with a senior integration group formed by Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks to accelerate the process.

Despite the new funding, there are challenges in delivering aid. The Pentagon's bureaucracy and concerns over U.S. military readiness have previously slowed the process. The Navy and Air Force, in particular, worried about depleting their own resources.

U.S. officials emphasize the urgency of arming Taiwan to deter potential aggression from China. The aid package, valued at $345 million, was signed by the president in spring but not announced until summer. The Pentagon now focuses on replacing stocks sent last year and prioritizes smaller-scale assistance like munitions, drones, and training.

The $4 billion aid package includes $2 billion for foreign military financing, helping Taiwan buy military equipment. However, logistical and strategic challenges remain. Taiwan's military capacity to absorb aid is limited, and Washington urges Taiwan to adopt an asymmetric defense strategy focused on denying China’s ability to invade.

Political tensions complicate the situation further. U.S.-China relations, strained after Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan in 2022, remain fragile despite a recent summit between President Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

As the U.S. balances hardening Taiwan's defenses and managing relations with China, the urgency to support Taiwan's defense grows, reflecting the region's escalating tensions.

JF-17 Outshines LCA Tejas in Export Market: India and Pakistan Unveil Advanced Fighter Jets

 The skies over the Indian subcontinent are heating up as India and Pakistan introduce their latest supersonic fighter jets, the Tejas Mk 1A and the JF-17 Block III, both competing for regional air supremacy and a share in the global market for cost-effective combat jets.

India and Pakistan's New Fighter Jets

The Indian Air Force (IAF) is set to receive the upgraded Tejas Mk 1A by July, while the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) recently incorporated the JF-17 Block III in December 2023. These aircraft represent advanced iterations of their predecessors and are designed for a variety of military missions.

Production and Evolution

The Tejas, developed by India’s Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA) and Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), and the JF-17, a product of the Sino-Pakistani partnership between the Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC) and China’s Chengdu Aircraft Industry Complex (CAC), are both classified as 4.5-generation aircraft, with the JF-17 Block III described as “fourth-generation plus.”

Budget-Friendly Powerhouses

Both the Tejas Mk 1A and the JF-17 Block III are single-engine, lightweight, multirole fighters designed to replace aging fleets—India’s MiG-21 and Pakistan’s assortment of Chinese and French jets. The Tejas Mk 1A completed its first test flight on March 28, 2024, while the JF-17 Block III had its inaugural flight on December 15, 2019.

Specifications and Features

The Tejas Mk 1A boasts advanced technology, including new electronics, processors, and fly-by-wire hardware, with approximately nine hard points for various weaponry. The JF-17 Block III features superior maneuverability, extended range, advanced electronics, and the NRIET/CETC KLJ-7A AESA radar.

Cost and Export Potential

The Tejas Mk 1A development has a reported budget of $5.9 billion, while the JF-17 Block III costs around $55 million per unit, as indicated by Iraq’s interest in purchasing 12 units for $664 million. The JF-17 has been exported to countries like Nigeria and Myanmar, with potential deals with Azerbaijan and Iraq. Meanwhile, despite negotiations with Malaysia and Argentina, the Tejas has yet to secure export orders.

Future Developments

The PAF plans to develop the JF-17 PFX, continuing the evolution of the JF-17 series. India aims to expedite the delivery of the Tejas Mk 1A to pave the way for the LCA Mk 2, featuring more capable engines and extended flight duration. The first squadron of Tejas Mk 1A is planned for deployment at the Nal air base in Rajasthan’s Bikaner district.

As these advanced fighter jets take to the skies, the rivalry between India and Pakistan intensifies, setting the stage for an electrifying aerial showdown.

China Deploys Stealth J-20 Fighters Near Indian Border, Sparking Concerns

 

China's People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has deployed J-20 and J-10 fighters at the Shigatse Air Base, just 150 kilometers from the Indian border, also known as the Line of Actual Control (LAC). Satellite images obtained by All Source Analysis reveal six J-20 stealth fighters, eight J-10 aircraft, and one KJ-500 airborne early warning and control aircraft at the high-altitude, dual-use airport.

This significant deployment puts the J-20s less than 300 kilometers from India’s Hasimara Air Base in West Bengal, where the Indian Air Force (IAF) has stationed its Rafale jets. This proximity has raised alarms among Indian military bloggers, highlighting the disparity between the two air forces. Unlike China, India does not have a fifth-generation aircraft.

The IAF's Rafales, considered one of its strongest defenses against the Chinese threat, are strategically positioned at Hasimara for quick deployment in case of a border threat. During the 2020 standoff, China deployed five times more J-20 fighters compared to India’s Rafales. This recent deployment at Shigatse is one of the largest near the Indian border in recent memory, following previous sightings at the Hotan airbase in Xinjiang.

China first positioned J-20s near the Indian border during the 2020 conflict, responding to the perceived threat from India’s Rafale jets. In June 2022, the PLAAF stationed about two dozen combat aircraft, including J-20s, at Hotan.

The J-20s have become a symbol of China’s military prowess. Recently, the PLA Eastern Command showcased the J-20s' capabilities in a video emphasizing their “cross-strait” lethality. This display followed military drills in response to Taiwan President Lai Ching-te's speech on independence. By 2026, each of China’s five theatre commands will have one to two J-20 brigades.

The J-20, featuring advanced electronics and sensors, is designed for “intelligentized combat,” functioning as a “sniper” by targeting vulnerable assets like airborne early warning planes with near-invisibility. Chinese media claims the J-20 is superior to the Rafale due to its stealth capabilities, though analysts argue the two jets are designed for different roles.

In a 2020 simulation drill, Chinese pilots claimed to have shot down 17 Rafale fighters using J-20s. Despite these claims, Indian officials and experts maintain that the Rafale’s combat history in various conflicts puts it above the still-developing J-20. Ironically, while Chinese J-20s are near the Indian border, Indian Rafales are in the US for the Red Flag military exercises to enhance their combat skills.

Ukrainian Military Criticizes US Abrams Tanks: Vulnerabilities and Battlefield Challenges Revealed

 The reputation of the US-supplied Abrams tanks, once considered a game-changer for Ukraine’s military, is now under heavy scrutiny. Ukrainian soldiers have reported weaknesses and flaws in these American vehicles, raising doubts about their effectiveness in the ongoing conflict with Russian forces.

Initially, the deployment of Abrams tanks, specifically the M1A1 models, was intended to bolster Ukraine's resistance. In January 2023, following persistent lobbying by Ukrainian officials, the US agreed to send 31 Abrams tanks. Each costing approximately $10 million, these tanks were expected to breach Russian defensive lines. By October 2023, all 31 tanks had arrived in Ukraine, igniting hopes for a strategic advantage.

However, battlefield experiences have revealed significant challenges. At least five Abrams tanks have been destroyed by Russian attacks, particularly from drones, undermining their anticipated impact. Ukrainian tank crews trained in Germany expressed concerns about the tanks’ armor, stating it is not strong enough to protect against modern weapons.

"The tank’s armor is not sufficient for this moment," said one crew member, known as Joker. "It doesn’t protect the crew. For real, today, this is the war of drones. So now, when the tank rolls out, they always try to hit them." Another crew member, Dnipro, highlighted that Abrams tanks have become the "number one target" on the battlefield, emphasizing the high risk to soldiers.

Despite reports suggesting a withdrawal of Abrams tanks from the front lines, officials from the 47th Mechanized Brigade confirmed that all Abrams tanks remain near the eastern front. Technical issues have further compounded the tanks' challenges. During a CNN visit, one tank was immobilized due to an engine problem despite being newly shipped from Poland. Additionally, rain or fog can cause condensation, potentially damaging the vehicle's electronics.

The crews also face ammunition issues, with the current supplies being unsuitable for their combat needs. "What we have is more for direct tank-to-tank fights, which happens very rarely," Joker explained. "More often, we work as artillery. You need to take apart a tree line or a building. We had a case when we fired 17 rounds into a house, and it was still standing."

Why Are Abrams Tanks Facing Challenges?

Main Battle Tanks (MBTs) play a critical role in modern high-intensity land warfare. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has shown that large-scale offensive operations require an adequate supply of these powerful machines. However, several factors have contributed to the struggles of US-supplied Abrams tanks on the Ukrainian frontlines.

Some Western sources have criticized Ukrainian leadership for poor operational planning. However, Ukraine's armed forces are at a severe disadvantage against a well-armed and deeply entrenched Russian Army. The effectiveness of Abrams tanks has also been hindered by the lack of crucial aerial support, which is vital for modern armored warfare. Ukrainian tank crews noted the critical difference between NATO and Ukrainian battlefield conditions. Abrams tanks were designed for a NATO style of warfare, which heavily relies on air power and artillery to prepare the battlefield before tanks and infantry advance. Kyiv has often expressed frustration over the lack of adequate artillery and air power.

Joker, a Ukrainian tank crew member, explained that NATO soldiers would never undertake similar advances without air support. "Call the aviation, call the artillery," he mimicked a NATO soldier, pointing out that Ukraine has neither adequate aviation nor artillery, only tanks.

Entrenched defenses can only be breached with decisive airpower and massing heavy armor. Without airpower, this tactic requires numerous tanks, but Kyiv's current arsenal is a patchwork of different vehicles. While Washington has supplied 31 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, experts argue that at least two brigades of Abrams tanks—approximately 200—are needed in a coordinated effort to make an impact on the battlefield.

Despite their advanced design and capabilities, the limited number of Abrams tanks cannot overcome the well-fortified Russian defenses. Ukraine has become a graveyard for tanks, as even these advanced vehicles succumb to the harsh realities of the battlefield.