AI's Rapid Rise in Warfare Sparks Concerns: Experts Warn of Uncontrolled Arms Race

 

The advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) in warfare, particularly accelerated by recent conflicts like those in Ukraine and Gaza, is leading to significant concerns among experts. Autonomous decision-making is rapidly reshaping modern combat scenarios, with AI-driven weapons systems capable of making critical decisions, including target selection and engagement, at unprecedented speeds.

Natasha Bajema, a senior research associate at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, warned of the potential dangers of escalating conflict speeds driven by autonomous systems. She highlighted the challenge of maintaining human oversight in increasingly automated battles, comparing the situation to the race for nuclear weapons in the past.

Despite longstanding calls for restrictions on AI in military applications, the appetite for autonomy in weapons has grown significantly, overshadowing previous concerns. However, efforts to address these challenges persist. Austria, for instance, has spearheaded international initiatives to establish regulations for AI-enabled weapons, hosting a global conference on autonomous weapon systems with broad international participation.

While there is growing interest, particularly from the Global South, in regulating AI technology in warfare, significant obstacles remain, including the reluctance of major global powers to commit to multilateral agreements. Zachary Kallenborn, lead researcher at Looking Glass USA, emphasized the technological limitations of AI, particularly in machine vision, which remains error-prone and susceptible to misinterpretation.

The disposable nature of drones and the potential for unintended consequences pose additional challenges. Intercepting autonomous systems may lead to unpredictable responses, complicating the already complex landscape of modern warfare. Natasha Bajema highlighted the "terminator problem," where states feel compelled to pursue AI-driven weapons for security reasons, further complicating efforts to regulate the technology.

Ambassador Alexander Kmentt acknowledged the difficulty of achieving universal consensus on AI regulation but emphasized the importance of collaboration among interested parties. However, he expressed pessimism about the prospects of success given the geopolitical challenges and the reluctance of certain countries to engage in multilateral arms control efforts.

With the target date of 2026 set by the United Nations for establishing clear prohibitions and restrictions on autonomous weapon systems, there is a sense of urgency among advocates for AI nonproliferation. Failure to make significant progress by then could close the window for preventive action, further complicating efforts to regulate AI in warfare.

Pentagon and Air Force Select Four Companies to Develop Modular Testing Drones

 

The U.S. Department of Defense has chosen four companies to create prototypes of a modular drone designed for testing payloads, sensors, and other technologies, while being affordable and scalable for mass production. Anduril Industries, Integrated Solutions for Systems Inc., Leidos Dynetics, and Zone 5 Technologies were selected for the Enterprise Test Vehicle (ETV) project, as announced by the Air Force Armament Directorate and Defense Innovation Unit (DIU) on Monday. Over 100 firms applied to join this initiative.

The first flight demonstrations of these prototypes are expected in late summer or fall. Following these tests, DIU and the Air Force will select the most promising prototypes for further development into versions suitable for rapid production.

Andrew Hunter, the Air Force’s assistant secretary for acquisition, technology, and logistics, expressed excitement about the partnership with DIU, highlighting the opportunity to leverage industry innovations to create affordable and scalable test capabilities.

Cassie Johnson, ETV program manager for the Air Force Armament Directorate, emphasized the importance of involving non-traditional aerospace firms to meet the program's goals related to cost, timeline, and production quantities.

The ETV is envisioned as a test vehicle using an open systems architecture, allowing for modular subsystem updates to validate new components. According to a DIU solicitation from September 2023, the system should have a range of 500 nautical miles (926 kilometers) and be capable of delivering a kinetic payload.

To keep costs low and ensure supply chain efficiency, DIU and the Air Force have mandated the use of commercial off-the-shelf components and minimizing the use of expensive materials. The drones should also avoid being "over-engineered" and utilize modern manufacturing and design techniques to enable high-rate production.

The ETV is designed to be deployed in large numbers with various launch methods to create significant challenges for any adversary. It is part of the Pentagon's ambitious Replicator program, with collaboration from the Air Force Research Laboratory, U.S. Special Operations Command, Naval Air Systems Command, and U.S. Indo-Pacific Command.

Jason Levin, senior vice president of Anduril’s air dominance and strike division, stated that Anduril aims to deliver a modular and affordable prototype for large-scale future aircraft production, emphasizing the company's commitment to providing capabilities within years, not decades.

Mark Miller, senior vice president for missile and aviation systems at Leidos Dynetics, highlighted their aircraft proposal as a compelling offer for the ETV project, merging their strike systems expertise with recent drone development experience.

Kyle Maxhimer, president of Zone 5, noted that the ETV project aligns with their work on unmanned aerial systems and advances their air-launched effects technologies. Integrated Solutions for Systems Inc. did not provide an immediate statement.

Overall, this initiative represents a significant step towards enhancing modular and scalable drone technology for defense applications.

NATO to Unveil Ukraine Security Package at Upcoming Summit: A Step Towards Membership

 

NATO is set to introduce a security package for Ukraine at its upcoming annual summit in Washington this summer. However, the alliance is not expected to grant Ukraine's long-standing request for full membership amidst the ongoing Russian invasion.

Scheduled for July, the package will be complemented by bilateral agreements from approximately 32 countries, with 13 already finalized, according to Julianne Smith, the U.S. ambassador to NATO.

Smith explained at a Defense Writers Group roundtable that the package will act as a "bridge" to Ukraine's future membership in NATO. This includes formalizing current bilateral support under NATO command and identifying new resources for Ukraine, reinforcing NATO's commitment and sending a clear message to Moscow.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has pushed for expedited NATO membership since Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022. While NATO has not yet agreed, it provided Ukraine with a multiyear assistance package last year to strengthen its defenses and transition from Soviet-era equipment.

Membership for Ukraine would invoke NATO's collective defense clause, potentially escalating the conflict with Russia. U.S. President Joe Biden has stated that the war must end before Ukraine can join the alliance. Nevertheless, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg assured during an April visit to Kyiv that "Ukraine will become a member of NATO," emphasizing that current efforts are paving the way for this future membership.

Some NATO-aligned defense companies have shown interest in co-producing military capabilities like unmanned systems. In May, the U.S. announced a $2 billion Foreign Military Financing package aimed at enhancing Ukraine's defense-industrial base.

The July summit, marking NATO's 75th anniversary, will also address regional defense and deterrence plans for northern, central, and southern Europe. These plans, agreed upon at last year's summit, will significantly influence how member countries invest and procure military resources, aligning with the regional defense objectives.

Smith highlighted that these plans will guide procurement decisions, ensuring they meet specific regional defense needs. This approach also reassures defense manufacturers of NATO's long-term procurement commitments, encouraging them to increase production.

The summit will emphasize burden-sharing among NATO members, with expectations that over 20 countries will meet the target of spending at least 2% of their GDP on defense. Smith stressed the importance of all member nations having a plan to reach this goal in the near future.

Kongsberg Secures $141M Contract to Supply Joint Strike Missiles to USAF for F-35A Aircraft

 Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace (KONGSBERG) has secured an Undefinitized Contract Action (UCA) from the United States Air Force (USAF) for the provision of Joint Strike Missiles (JSM) for their F-35A aircraft. This contract is valued at up to $141 million, with deliveries scheduled to commence in 2026.

Expressing satisfaction with the deal, KONGSBERG highlighted the significance of the USAF, the largest operator of the F-35A Lightning II, choosing the JSM. The combination of the JSM with the advanced F-35 aircraft offers a robust strike capability, validating the JSM as the internal strike weapon for the F-35A. Eirik Lie, President of Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace, noted that the USAF's selection of the JSM, alongside the Royal Norwegian Air Force's decision, supports NATO’s vision for interoperability among allied forces.

About the Joint Strike Missile (JSM):

The Joint Strike Missile (JSM) is an air-launched weapon designed for the internal weapons bay of the F-35A, capable of executing complex missions such as Anti-surface Warfare (ASuW) and land attacks. It targets high-value, well-defended assets on sea, in coastal waters, or on land. The JSM features sophisticated mission planning capabilities, allowing it to engage targets based on predefined Rules-of-Engagement.

The JSM was developed under a contract with the Norwegian Defence Materiel Agency (NDMA). In 2021, the Norwegian Defense Material Agency successfully conducted the first in-flight release of the JSM from an F-35A test aircraft over Edwards Air Force Base. The JSM, an air-launched variant of the Naval Strike Missile (NSM), is unique in its ability to attack both sea and land targets while being carried internally in the F-35, thus preserving the aircraft's stealth characteristics. Utilizing advanced materials, terrain-following capabilities, and passive seekers, the JSM is designed to be extremely difficult to detect and counter, even by the most sophisticated defense systems.

Norwegian Navy's Type 212CD AIP Submarines to Revolutionize Underwater Capabilities

 

Norway's new Type 212CD diesel-electric submarines (SSKs) will introduce air-independent propulsion (AIP) to the Royal Norwegian Navy (RNoN), significantly enhancing its underwater capabilities. This advancement is expected to be a game-changer, as stated by the commanding officer (CO) of one of Norway's current in-service boats.

Currently, the RNoN operates six Type 210 Ula-class SSKs, which are set to be replaced by up to six Type 212CD submarines, with the first delivery slated for 2029 and subsequent deliveries extending into the mid-2030s. These new submarines are being developed through a strategic collaboration with Germany, initiated in 2017, marking the beginning of a broader defense partnership formalized in 2023.

Originally, the RNoN planned to replace the Ula-class boats with four Type 212CDs. However, rising regional security concerns and underwater challenges led Norway’s Chief of Defence, General Eirik Kristoffersen, to advocate for six new submarines. In April 2024, the Norwegian government proposed to parliament the acquisition of at least five new submarines as part of a long-term defense strategy extending to 2036.

The Type 212CD submarines will bring crucial new capabilities to the RNoN, particularly through AIP technology. The CO of the Ula-class boat HNoMS Utvaer emphasized that AIP is a significant game-changer. Unlike the current Ulas, the Type 212CD’s fuel-cell AIP will reduce the need for ‘snorting’ at periscope depth, a noisy and visible process that increases vulnerability to various threats.

This capability is demonstrated by the Royal Swedish Navy’s Gotland-class SSKs, which utilize a Stirling fuel-cell AIP system, allowing them to remain submerged without snorting for several weeks. The introduction of AIP aligns with the RNoN's focus on enhancing stealth and operational capability in its challenging regional waters.

In addition to AIP, the Type 212CDs will allow the RNoN to explore new capabilities such as strike capabilities with the Kongsberg Naval Strike Missile (NSM). The Ula-class boats, although not equipped with strike capabilities, remain formidable with up to 14 weapons and advanced torpedoes like the Atlas Elektronik DM2A3 Sea Hake.

Despite their age, the Ula-class submarines maintain high operational effectiveness through regular upgrades and maintenance. This includes new sonars, command and information control consoles, and advanced navigation equipment. The CO of Utvaer praised the robust maintenance process, which ensures high material readiness and prolongs the operational life of the submarines.

The continuous upgrade and maintenance efforts reflect the RNoN's commitment to maintaining a capable and ready submarine fleet, even as they age. This dedication ensures that the Ula-class boats remain potent platforms until the new Type 212CD submarines are fully integrated into the fleet.

Hanwha Ocean Partners with Canadian Firms for Canadian Patrol Submarine Project

 

Hanwha Ocean has formed partnerships with three Canadian companies as the South Korean shipbuilder aims to strengthen its position in the upcoming Canadian Patrol Submarine Project competition. Vice Chairman Kwon Hyuk-woong is leading Hanwha Ocean’s efforts to secure a contract for Canada’s submarine initiative.

Hanwha Ocean and Hanwha Aerospace were the sole Korean representatives at CANSEC, Canada's premier defense exhibition. To bolster their submarine business, Hanwha Ocean signed agreements with CAE Inc., Curtiss-Wright Indal Technologies, and GASTOPS. The signing ceremony included key representatives from each company, alongside Yong Ook Lee, Executive Vice President and Head of Hanwha Ocean’s Naval Ship Business Unit.

Previously, Hanwha Ocean had established relationships with several companies, including CAE Inc., during the ‘Deep Blue Forum 2023,’ a specialized submarine forum. At CANSEC, Hanwha Ocean further solidified its partnership with CAE Inc. by signing a Teaming Agreement, an advanced form of collaboration beyond a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU).

Additionally, MOUs were signed with Curtiss-Wright Indal Technologies for towed array sonar systems and with GASTOPS for propulsion system control, modeling, and simulation. The involved companies committed to merging their technological expertise and experience, aiming to enhance cooperation in Canada's submarine sector through technology exchange, joint research and development, and market expansion.

The Canadian government is currently working on a new submarine acquisition project to replace its four Victoria-class submarines to improve its maritime capabilities.

Hanwha Ocean, a prominent name in South Korea, is globally acclaimed for its advanced submarine technology. It stands as the fifth country to export submarines and the eighth to develop 3,000-ton class submarines independently. The Jangbogo-III (KSS-III) submarine, featuring an Air-Independent Propulsion (AIP) system combined with lithium-ion batteries, is renowned for its powerful armament and prolonged underwater endurance among diesel-powered submarines. Hanwha Ocean aims to lead Canada’s patrol submarine project by participating in the design, construction, and logistics support through its advanced technology and collaboration with Canadian companies.

Yong Ook Lee commented, “The Teaming Agreement and MOUs are pivotal in expanding Hanwha Ocean’s technological capabilities and partnerships with Canadian companies in the submarine industry. We are committed to developing optimal solutions with local Canadian companies, enhancing the Korean defense industry through increased maritime defense exports.”

Meanwhile, CANSEC, Canada’s largest defense exhibition, is held annually in Ottawa. This year, Hanwha Ocean, along with Hanwha Aerospace, participated as a Diamond Sponsor, showcasing a range of maritime and land solutions, including the Jangbogo-III (KSS-III) submarine and the K-9 SPH, highlighting their integrated defense capabilities.

China & Pakistan’s J 10s Breathe Down India’s Neck On ‘Both Sides’

 China has positioned its J-10 Vigorous Dragon fighter jets just 300 kilometers from the Indian base housing Rafale jets, adding a new dimension to the military posturing along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). While the presence of J-20 jets has been well-documented, the deployment of J-10s, considered challengers to the Rafale, has not received as much attention. These J-10s are the only fighters stationed on both the Chinese and Pakistani sides of the Indian border.

Pakistan has integrated these single-engine multi-role fighters to specifically counter the Rafale jets acquired by the Indian Air Force (IAF). The key question is whether India’s Rafale and LCA Tejas MK1A jets can effectively challenge the capabilities of the J-10s.

According to the EurAsian Times, China has deployed these fighters along with six J-20s at the Shigatse Airbase, located less than 300 kilometers from Hasimara Air Base in West Bengal, where India’s Rafale jets are stationed. Unlike China, India does not have a fifth-generation aircraft in its arsenal.

The latest satellite imagery of China’s fighter jets coincides with India’s announcement to raise a new Army division for eastern Ladakh. Since the Galwan clash in 2020, relations have deteriorated, with Beijing criticizing the deployment of 10,000 Indian troops as harmful to peace and stability.

The Indian Army has been preparing for possible Chinese aggression with the onset of summer. During a visit to the US, Indian Army Chief General Manoj Pande received detailed technical-signal intelligence and satellite data on Chinese military movements in Tibet and nearby regions.

Despite these preparations, Indian air power urgently needs enhancement to match the combined capabilities of its neighbors. The induction of 36 Rafales was the initial step in modernizing the IAF’s aging fleet and addressing the declining number of fighter squadrons.

However, the delivery of the LCA Tejas Mk1A has been delayed, and there has been no progress on acquiring 114 Medium Role Fighter Aircraft or additional Rafale jets.

Pakistan added the J-10C to its fleet in response to India’s Rafales. Equipped with an indigenous AESA radar, the J-10C is designed for all-weather operations, primarily in air-to-air combat but also capable of strike missions. The J-10C is often compared to upgraded versions of the American F-16, featuring advanced avionics, beyond-visual-range engagement, and electronic warfare capabilities.

Retired Air Marshal Anil Chopra of the IAF believes comparing the J-10CE with the Rafale is “somewhat unfair” since the Rafale is a twin-engine, combat-proven jet with superior technology, weaponry, and combat experience.

The IAF faces challenges with only 36 Rafales and adversaries on both eastern and western fronts. The situation is different when comparing the J-10C with the indigenous LCA Tejas Mk1A, which is still under production. The IAF has ordered over 180 of these jets to replace the aging MiG-21 bison aircraft, but delivery has been delayed.

The IAF needs 42 squadrons for combat parity but currently has only 31. Phasing out MiG-21s without replacements would reduce numbers further. The J-10C is larger, heavier, and faster than the Tejas LCA, which offers better range and agility. However, the J-10C is already operational in China and Pakistan, while the LCA Tejas Mk1A is still being assembled.

The Indian government, emphasizing “Make in India,” has not proceeded with purchasing 114 Medium Role Fighter Aircraft from foreign manufacturers, an estimated $20 billion investment. The IAF’s overall deterrence capability has not kept pace with the existing threat perception, necessitating new-generation multi-role aircraft until domestic projects like Tejas Mk II and Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft are ready.

The Tejas Mk2 project, despite receiving official approval and funding in September 2022, is still pending due to reliance on US approval for engine technology transfer. The LCA Mk-2, featuring enhanced range and payload capacity, is expected to have significant improvements over the earlier variants, aiming to bolster India’s defense capabilities.