China Aims for 1,000 J-20 Jets by 2035: Can India's AMCA Narrow the Gap?

 India is striving for self-reliance in developing indigenous fighter jets, with plans to launch the fifth-generation Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) program in 2024. However, by the time the AMCA becomes operational, China aims to have 1,000 J-20 'Mighty Dragon' 5th-generation jets in its arsenal.

China, the second country to deploy an operational 5th-generation fighter, is now advancing towards 6th-generation technologies. The J-20, a twinjet all-weather stealth fighter by Chengdu Aerospace Corporation for the People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF), first flew in 2011 and was revealed in 2016. Entering service in 2017, the PLAAF already has over 200 J-20s, targeting 400 by 2027 and 1,000 by 2035. Some J-20s are positioned less than 150 kilometers from India in the Sikkim region.

The J-20 is designed for air superiority and precision strikes. Currently, the Indian Air Force (IAF) counters with 36 French-built Rafale jets, stationed at the Hasimara air base in West Bengal, close to where J-20s are deployed.

Despite issues with jet engines, China’s early deployment of stealth aircraft gives it a significant lead in maturing 5th-generation capabilities compared to India's AMCA, which is still in the development phase. Retired Air Marshal Anil Chopra highlighted that India is still evolving technologies for its fifth-generation aircraft, including aero-engines, AESA radars, EW systems, and AI-based avionics.

There is pressure within India to accelerate its timeline. The Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) approved Rs. 15,000 crores ($1.9B) in March 2024 to develop the AMCA. The Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA) under the Defense Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) will lead the project, with manufacturing by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL).

HAL is currently focusing on producing more LCA Mk1A jets to fulfill IAF orders before progressing to the LCA Mk2 and then the AMCA. The ADA asserts that the 25-ton twin-engine AMCA will be on par with or superior to other 5th-generation fighters globally once completed.

Air Marshal Chopra suggested that India consider collaborative routes, like joining the GCAP or the French-led FCAS program, to share costs and risks. The IAF’s reliance on aging third-generation jets, while neighboring adversaries rapidly upgrade, adds urgency to the situation. Pakistan might even acquire a fifth-generation fighter before the AMCA.

India's initial quest for a next-gen fighter began 15 years ago with a collaboration with Russia on the Fifth Generation Fighter Jet (FGFA). However, delays and missed deadlines have plagued the DRDO. The AMCA project, originally expected to produce a prototype in three years, now faces a timeline of seven years for its first flight and ten years for induction, pushing initial expectations from 2027 to 2035.

IAF Chief Air Chief Marshal VR Chaudhari advised caution, recommending foreign partnerships for alternative systems if domestic development falters. DRDO Chairman Samir Kamat’s revised timeline aligns with this cautious approach.

Former IAF veteran Vijaindra K Thakur warned about the risks of project delays and technological shortfalls, emphasizing the need for the CCS to stay vigilant about the AMCA’s impact on the IAF’s combat readiness. Balancing self-reliance with operational capability remains crucial for India's defense strategy amidst growing regional threats.

Ukraine to Station F-16s in NATO Countries Amid Russian Threats

 

As Ukraine prepares to receive its first batch of F-16 Fighting Falcons, it plans to station some of these jets at NATO bases outside of Ukraine to protect them from potential Russian attacks. Serhii Holubtsov, a senior official at the Ukrainian Air Force Command, revealed this strategy in an interview with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL). He explained that keeping a number of F-16s at secure foreign bases will ensure they are not targeted within Ukraine, serving as a reserve for maintenance and replacement needs.

Holubtsov did not specify the exact number of aircraft to be stationed abroad but emphasized that the availability of trained pilots would determine how many F-16s remain in Ukraine. Several NATO countries, including Denmark, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Norway, have pledged to supply dozens of F-16s to Ukraine. The first Danish F-16s are expected to arrive this summer, with some Western aircraft remaining at training facilities outside Ukraine for pilot training and other aviation staff.

Holubtsov noted that reserve aircraft at foreign bases would replace damaged ones sent for repairs and be used for pilot training. However, a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) identified bottlenecks in training Ukrainian pilots, with limited capacity at Western training facilities in the US, Denmark, and Romania.

The threat from Russia has escalated with frequent warnings from Moscow. Sergey Shmotyev, Director General of the Russian company Fores, has offered a reward of 15 million rubles ($168,000) for shooting down the first F-16 in Ukraine. Russia maintains that the delivery of F-16s to Ukraine won't significantly alter the conflict, as its long-range missiles can target almost all Ukrainian airfields. Former Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu claimed that Russian air defenses could shoot down all F-16s within 20 days of their arrival in Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that F-16s would be legitimate targets if used against Russian troops from third-country airfields. This has heightened concerns about escalating tensions between Moscow and NATO. Despite these threats, Putin asserted that Russia has no aggressive intentions towards NATO member states but will destroy any F-16s provided to Ukraine, just as it does with tanks and other military equipment.

While Holubtsov did not confirm whether the F-16s stationed abroad would be used to attack Russia, the strategy underscores Ukraine's cautious approach in safeguarding its new assets.

Malaysia Secures Turkish Corvettes for LMS Batch 2 Project: Enhancing Naval Capabilities

 

On June 10, 2024, Malaysia signed a letter of acceptance (LOA) with the Turkish Defense Industry Agency (SSB) for the procurement of three Littoral Mission Ship (LMS) corvettes for the Royal Malaysian Navy. This announcement, made by the SSB Chief, finalizes negotiations between the two countries, initially reported during the Defense and Security Asia (DSA) 2024 exhibition held in Kuala Lumpur from May 6-9, 2024.

While details about the project timeline were not specified, SSB Chief Haluk Görgün confirmed that STM will construct the three ships in Turkey, tailored to meet the Royal Malaysian Navy's requirements. These ships will incorporate products from several Turkish defense industry companies, including HAVELSAN, ASELSAN, and ROKETSAN.

The announcement also highlighted a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between Turkey and Malaysia regarding the procurement of defense products. This marks the first time Malaysia has signed a government-to-government (G2G) MoU for defense product procurement with another country.

“These significant meetings and agreements not only represent substantial progress in our defense industry cooperation but also herald a new era of strategic partnership between Turkey and Malaysia,” Görgün remarked.

Based on the MİLGEM corvette model displayed at the Malaysian Navy’s booth, the dimensions of the corvette for Malaysia are similar to the Turkish counterpart, with some configuration adjustments. The LMS Batch 2 Corvette will feature air defense missiles housed in 2×2-cell Vertical Launch Systems (VLSs) located in the aft mast area. The selected air defense missile is the Haegung (Sea Bow) Surface-to-Air Missile (SAAM) from South Korean company Lig NEX1, with 16 Haegung SAAMs onboard.

The Ada-class corvette, part of the MILGEM project, is Turkey’s first national shipbuilding initiative aimed at creating a modern littoral combat ship with indigenous anti-submarine warfare and high-seas patrol capabilities, utilizing stealth technology in its design.

The Ada-class Corvette is equipped to detect, locate, classify, identify, and destroy air, surface, and underwater targets, and provide Naval Gunfire Support. These corvettes are also adept at evading threats and performing maritime operations such as surveillance and patrol, protecting coastal areas and infrastructure, and monitoring Exclusive Economic Zones.

Designed to accommodate a 10-ton helicopter with platform, hangar, and extensive service and handling equipment, helicopter operations can be performed at sea state 4. A MILGEM corvette can house 106 sailors, including the flight crew, with a total accommodation capacity of 108.

The LMS Batch 2 corvettes are multipurpose vessels capable of executing a range of missions, including reconnaissance, surveillance, anti-submarine warfare, and both surface-to-surface and surface-to-air warfare.

LMS Batch 2 Main Specifications:

• Displacement: 2,500 tonnes
• Length: 99.56 meters
• Beam: 14.42 meters
• Draft: 3.9 meters
• Propulsion: CODAG (1 GE LM2500 gas turbine and 2 diesel engines)
• Max Speed: 26 knots
• Range: 4,000 nautical miles at 14 knots
• Crew: 111
• Weaponry: 1x 76 mm gun; 2x 12.7mm STAMP; 8 × Atmaca; 21 × RAM; 30 mm Aselsan Smash; 4-cell quad pack Haegung SAM; Gökdeniz CIWS

Chinese Satellite Tracks US F-22 Raptor: A Potential Shift in Aerial Surveillance Capabilities

 Chang Guang, a Chinese commercial aerospace company, has released a brief video purportedly showing a satellite tracking a US F-22 Raptor fighter jet. The video, which dates back to 2020, was shared by Clash Report on X and reportedly utilizes the commercial Jilin-1 remote control satellite system.

The footage is notably short, lasting just six seconds, during which the satellite’s camera tracks the aircraft, identified as an American F-22 Raptor navigating through partly cloudy skies. This raises several questions: Is the aircraft truly an F-22? Was the video edited? Did the Jilin-1 satellite system actually perform the tracking? And why release only a brief segment?

While observing the F-22 in video footage isn't unusual, its stealth technology makes it nearly invisible to radar but not to the naked eye. If the satellite can track the F-22 beyond these six seconds, it suggests a significant advancement in combat capabilities, implying that satellites could detect aircraft that ground-based radars might miss.

Reports confirming that Chinese satellites tracked an F-22 flight would spark discussions on combat capabilities. Stealth planes like the F-22 are not completely invisible to radars but have "low observability," making them harder to detect. The F-22’s radar cross-section (RCS) is about 0.0001 m², akin to a small metallic pebble, making it detectable at 1/17.5 of the distance of a typical fighter jet. However, detection depends greatly on the viewing angle.

While the F-22’s radar signature is minimal, it is still detectable, meaning tracking a known stealth aircraft is feasible. This suggests that integrating orbital technology with ground stations could enhance radar focus on specific sectors, aiding in identifying stealth aircraft signatures, assuming clear skies and no interference.

China’s Jilin-1 Satellite System, developed by Chang Guang Satellite Technology Co., Ltd., is a constellation of commercial remote sensing satellites providing high-resolution imagery and video for applications such as environmental monitoring, urban planning, and disaster response. It features diverse satellite types, including optical imaging, video, and hyperspectral satellites, allowing for a wide range of data capture. With a high revisit frequency, the system provides frequent updates of the same geographic area, crucial for real-time monitoring.

Launched initially in 2015, the Jilin-1 constellation has expanded significantly and now includes dozens of satellites, with plans for further growth.

Footage from 2020 has revealed that Chinese engineers are working on an advanced AI system to enhance the capabilities of low-cost commercial satellites, potentially transforming them into powerful surveillance tools. Reports suggest this system could improve success rates by up to seven times compared to current technology. Developed by researchers in the Chinese military, this AI system claims to track moving objects as small as a car with remarkable precision, achieving 95% accuracy in identifying small objects in Jilin-1 satellite videos, significantly surpassing existing methods.

Ukraine Allegedly Strikes Deep Inside Russia: First Airstrike on Belgorod Amid NATO Weapon Support

 For the first time, a Ukrainian warplane has reportedly struck deep into Russian territory, following authorization from several NATO countries for Ukraine to use provided weapons to attack Russian targets. On June 9, a Ukrainian military source informed Sky News about the airstrike on a "Russian command node" in Belgorod, a region in western Russia.

The source, speaking anonymously, stated, "A Ukrainian Air Force mission has struck a Russian command node in Belgorod. Damage assessment is ongoing, but it is confirmed as a direct hit. This is the first UAF air-delivered munition against a target within Russia."

While Belgorod is close to the Ukrainian border,  neither side has officially commented on the alleged attack.

This reported attack coincides with other claims of Ukrainian forces executing a "coordinated strike" on a Russian landing ship that had moved from the Black Sea to the Sea of Azov. Additionally, Ukrainian media reports suggest that a Su-57 Felon stealth jet was destroyed in a significant combat victory.

The Sky News report did not specify the type of ammunition used in the Belgorod strike or if it was of Western origin. These claims follow statements from NATO countries, including France and the US, that Ukraine could use the provided weapons to hit Russian territory to halt the Russian advance. The US, however, specified that this should be limited to defending Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city.

The exact missile used in the Belgorod attack is unclear, though Ukraine has utilized the long-range Storm Shadow provided by the UK and its French counterpart, the SCALP-EG. French President Emmanuel Macron has allowed the use of French weapons to neutralize points from which Ukraine is attacked, while the UK foreign secretary has left the decision to Ukraine.

The Russian Ministry of Defense reported shooting down several Ukrainian drones and a Neptune missile in the Belgorod region but did not confirm an air-launched missile attack by Ukrainian warplanes.

While Ukraine has previously attacked Russian territory using modified drones, an attack by a warplane could be seen as a significant escalation by Russia, especially given warnings from Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Putin recently reiterated a warning about arming rivals of Western nations supplying weapons to Ukraine, suggesting that Russia could provide high-precision, long-range missiles to those willing to strike Western targets. He stated, "If they supply weapons to the combat zone and call for using these weapons against our territory, why don’t we have the right to do the same?"

In response to NATO allowing Ukraine to attack Russian territory, Putin threatened to arm other nations with long-range weapons to target Western entities. Moscow has also reaffirmed its readiness to deploy nuclear weapons to protect its sovereignty.

Russian state media host Olga Skabeyeva and Dmitry Medvedev, the former president and current deputy chairman of Russia’s security council, echoed these threats, indicating that Russia could supply advanced weaponry to those opposed to the US and its allies.

Philippines Replaces India as Key US Military Partner Against China: Can Manila Succeed Where Delhi Hesitated?

 As China emerges as a global economic and military power capable of challenging US dominance, the Indo-Pacific region, including the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), has gained significant strategic importance for US defense. The Indo-Pacific would become a pivotal battleground if Western powers, led by the US, were to confront China.

Initially, there was debate over whether India should be included in the Indo-Pacific initiative, given its long-standing ties with Russia. However, China's aggressive actions along the Himalayan border with India eventually led Prime Minister Modi to support India's inclusion in the Quad, bolstering the initiative's prospects.

India focused on modernizing its navy to protect its shores and ports, while the Quad countries also worked on enhancing their naval capabilities. In April 2024, the navies of the US, Australia, Japan, and the Philippines conducted joint maritime exercises in the South China Sea, aiming to strengthen their collective ability to uphold freedom of navigation and maritime rights.

From April 22 to May 8, US and Philippine ships, alongside French and Australian naval troops, conducted the Balikatan 2024 exercise with over 16,000 participants. Although not officially aimed at containing China, these exercises sent a clear message of US presence near Chinese waters.

One controversial mission during the exercise involved sinking a decommissioned China-made naval vessel, BRP Lake Caliraya, which Beijing viewed as a deliberate message.

During the Balikatan exercise, defense ministers from the four countries met in Honolulu, discussing the exercise's political implications near China's coast. Reports suggest that the term "Squad" was informally used to describe the four participating countries, hinting at a new East Asian bloc.

The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), comprising Australia, India, Japan, and the US, was initially established in 2007. However, it remained largely inactive until 2017 when Quad leaders met in Manila to revive the initiative with a stronger stance against China, driven by concerns over China's Belt and Road Initiative and US accusations of "predatory economics."

Despite pressure from Washington, India maintained a pragmatic stance, continuing to purchase discounted oil from Russia and declining to align fully with NATO's anti-China agenda. This led the US to shift focus from the Quad to the more cooperative government of the Philippines.

Ultimately, US efforts to coerce India into a confrontational position against China failed, as India joined the Quad to enhance trade relations and ensure free maritime movement. The effectiveness of the newly formed "Squad" in ensuring Indo-Pacific security remains to be seen.

US Navy Boosts China Surveillance with Second MQ-4C Triton Deployment to Okinawa

 

The US Navy has significantly increased its surveillance capabilities in the Asia-Pacific region by deploying a second MQ-4C Triton maritime surveillance aircraft to Japan’s Kadena Air Base in Okinawa. This move follows the earlier deployment of several MQ-9 Reaper drones, enhancing intelligence gathering in the area.

According to an official from Japan’s Ministry of Defense, the second Triton arrived at Kadena Air Base at 3:40 p.m. on June 9. This follows the first MQ-4C Triton’s arrival on May 20, both temporarily relocated from Guam. Japanese media images show both aircraft stationed in the Navy's tarmac hangar shortly after the second aircraft's arrival.

The Tritons will be stationed at Kadena from May to October, supported by approximately 50 personnel. Since October, eight MQ-9 Reaper drones have also been deployed at Kadena, highlighting the base's critical role due to its strategic location, within three hours' flight time from Beijing, Seoul, and Taipei.

Kadena Air Base, the largest US Air Force base in the Asia-Pacific region, regularly hosts advanced fighter jets, with recent rotations including F-35 Lightning IIs, F-22 Raptors, US F-16s, and F-15E Strike Eagles. The base is also increasing its unmanned aerial vehicle presence to bolster reconnaissance and surveillance efforts.

The Okinawa Times, referencing the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), reported that the second MQ-4C Triton was scheduled for a flight around Okinawa’s main island on June 9. However, this plan was withdrawn shortly after the aircraft's arrival.

The deployment has sparked controversy, with local governments and the Okinawa Prefecture opposing the indefinite presence of MQ-9 drones and the temporary deployment of MQ-4C Tritons. The Kadena Town Council expressed concerns about potential aircraft accidents due to the rising number of US military assets at the base.

The MQ-4C Triton, developed by Northrop Grumman, is distinct from the RQ-4 Global Hawk, designed to withstand bird strikes and lightning, and capable of close-range maritime observation. Equipped with advanced sensors, the Triton can provide precise targeting information to naval assets, enhancing operational reach.

With two MQ-4C Tritons now operational at Kadena, the US military is set to intensify surveillance in regions where China is increasingly active. Drones will undertake intelligence missions in the Nansei region and surrounding areas, crucial maritime territories stretching from Kyushu to Taiwan.

China has escalated maritime challenges in the East and South China Seas, with frequent coast guard incursions into Japanese-claimed waters around the Senkaku Islands. Japan views these actions as attempts to undermine its sovereignty over the islands. The enhanced surveillance capabilities provided by the drones are crucial for monitoring and asserting control over these contested areas without provocation.