Pakistan's Potential Nuclear Submarine Program Challenges Indian Naval Strategy

 Pakistan is considering enhancing its naval capabilities by equipping its under-construction Chinese submarines with nuclear-tipped missiles, potentially altering the strategic balance for the Indian Navy.

Delays due to fiscal constraints had postponed the acquisition of S-26 Hangor class submarines from China. Initially expected by the end of 2023, the first of these Yuan-class submarines was launched in May 2024.

Once eight of these submarines, equipped with Air-Independent Propulsion (AIP), join the Pakistan Navy, they will significantly boost the country’s offensive sea denial strategy, which emphasizes the use of submarines and missile-carrying maritime patrol aircraft. Expected to be operational by the late 2020s and early 2030s, the addition will increase the number of AIP-equipped submarines in the Pakistan Navy to 11.

Recent reports suggest that the Hangor class may not be a purely conventional attack submarine. Retired Pakistani naval officers have discussed on state television that Islamabad is aiming for an “assured” second-strike capability.

According to a Quwa report, Vice Admiral Ahmed Saeed and Rear Admiral Saleem Akhtar, both retired officials, talked about acquiring Hangor-class submarines from China. Saeed suggested these submarines would be a "hybrid," balancing conventional attack capabilities with nuclear potential.

While retrofitting the Hangor class with nuclear reactors is unlikely, Pakistan could deploy Tactical Nuclear Warheads (TNWs) on these submarines. Building nuclear-powered submarines is costly and complex, as noted by retired Commodore Anil Jai Singh, making it improbable even with Chinese assistance.

Pakistan has been developing TNWs since its first nuclear test in 1998. These smaller, portable weapons are designed for battlefield use rather than as strategic deterrents. The Hangor-class submarines will likely use a variant of the Babur-3 Sea-Launched Cruise Missile (SLCM), first tested in 2018 with a range of 450 km. The Babur-3 is a critical component of Pakistan’s “credible second-strike capability,” according to the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR).

Vice Admiral Saeed emphasized that while the Hangor class is not a dedicated nuclear platform, the Pakistan Navy seeks to fire nuclear weapons from the sea, potentially requiring just one or two dedicated submarines. However, the Hangor class would primarily manage conventional roles and only strategic duties part-time.

Commodore Singh expressed doubts about the effectiveness of a single nuclear-armed submarine in the Pakistan Navy. He suggested that China might lease one to Pakistan in the future, but this remains uncertain.

Indian Navy's Concerns

While Pakistan cannot independently design and develop a nuclear-powered submarine, it may be exploring the possibility as part of a long-term strategy. China's support in arming Pakistan with such a submarine would challenge the Indian Navy’s dominance in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). China has already been supplying submarines to Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Myanmar, creating a competitive underwater environment in the IOR.

Retired Captain Anurag Bisen highlighted that a Pakistani submarine armed with TNWs would constrain the Indian Navy's deployment of its aircraft carriers until the submarine is accounted for.

India has been adopting a flexible deterrence approach against China and Pakistan. In March, New Delhi successfully tested the long-range ballistic missile Agni-V, featuring Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicle (MIRV) technology, enhancing the survivability of its nuclear missiles.

Despite the potential threat from TNWs, Commodore Singh remains optimistic, questioning whether Pakistan has considered India's likely retaliation, as stated in its nuclear doctrine. Using TNWs is complicated and risky, making their actual deployment a significant gamble for Pakistan.

White House Criticizes Shipbuilding and Defense Measures in FY25 Defense Bill

 

The White House issued a statement on Tuesday critiquing various elements of the House’s fiscal 2025 defense policy bill ahead of upcoming votes.

While the statement commended the House Armed Services Committee for its bipartisan efforts on the $884 billion bill, it highlighted concerns over provisions related to shipbuilding, the formation of an Army drone corps, missile defense, and pricing transparency for defense contractors.

The White House also pressed Congress to establish an Indo-Pacific Security Assistance Initiative, which the bill lacks despite a Pentagon request for a program similar to the one aiding Ukraine.

“The administration looks forward to continuing to work with Congress to set appropriate and responsible levels of defense and non-defense spending to support the security of the nation,” stated the White House’s Office of Management and Budget, expressing a desire to collaborate on addressing concerns.

Despite its objections, the White House did not issue a veto threat but warned that this could change if the House adopts certain socially conservative amendments proposed by the Republican right-flank during this week’s votes.

Last year, Republicans adopted a similar strategy, turning a bipartisan bill into a partisan one with amendments from the Freedom Caucus. However, these provisions were removed during Senate negotiations, resulting in a bipartisan compromise bill for FY24 in December.

The Senate Armed Services Committee is set to mark up its version of the FY25 defense policy bill later this week.

House Armed Services Chairman Mike Rogers (R-Ala.) and Rep. Adam Smith (D-Wash.), the committee’s top Democrat, urged the Rules Committee to prioritize non-divisive amendments out of the 1,386 proposed.

“The bill we are presenting today is truly bipartisan,” said Rogers, noting that it advanced 57-1 last month. Smith added that efforts to restrict reproductive healthcare or LGBTQ rights would pose significant problems, as would any attempt to block the Department of Defense’s inclusivity efforts.

Shipbuilding Disagreements

Aside from potential social policy conflicts, the Armed Services Committee is at odds with defense appropriators over their draft spending bill, which overrides several provisions in the defense policy bill. For instance, the draft FY25 defense spending bill does not fund the policy bill’s $1 billion authorization for a second Virginia-class attack submarine, aligning with the White House and Navy’s decision to fund only one due to production delays.

“The authorization of incremental funding for a second [Virginia-class submarine] would result in a significant unplanned bill in FY26,” noted the White House statement. The Biden administration encourages Congress to support near-term submarine industrial base investments instead.

The Armed Services Committee argues that dropping a second Virginia-class vessel in FY25 will set back companies further down the submarine supply chain. The defense policy bill also cuts $1.17 billion in procurement of a frigate for FY25, drawing further White House objections.

Additionally, the White House opposed a provision blocking the retirement of guided-missile cruisers, arguing that ships like the USS Shiloh and USS Lake Erie are too costly to modernize and restore.

Army and Missile Defense

The White House strongly opposes the bill’s provision to create a drone corps within the Army, citing concerns over specialization and flexibility. It also opposes establishing a third continental missile interceptor site on the east coast by 2030, arguing there is no operational need for such a site, with 20 Next-Generation Interceptors to be fielded in Alaska by 2028.

Defense Contractor Pricing Data

The White House also objects to a provision raising the cap for obtaining certified cost or pricing data from subcontractors to $5 million, up from $2 million. This change would reduce the incentive for prime contractors to negotiate fair contracts with subcontractors, creating unnecessary taxpayer risks.

The Project on Government Oversight, a watchdog group, also opposes this provision, arguing it would allow prime contractors to provide outdated historical data to justify price hikes, complicating the contracting officers’ ability to determine fair pricing.

Scrapped KNDS-Leonardo Deal Threatens Italian Leopard 2 Tank Acquisition

 

The major Italian plan to acquire Leopard tanks is at risk after the cooperation agreement between tank manufacturer KNDS and Italy’s Leonardo was abruptly terminated due to disagreements over technology transfer.

Initially announced in December 2023, the partnership between Leonardo and the German-French alliance aimed to give Leonardo a significant role in Italy’s planned purchase of 130 Leopard tanks. Leonardo intended to integrate its own components and electronics into the tanks, which were to be assembled at its facility in La Spezia, Italy. However, KNDS announced on Tuesday that Leonardo’s demands exceeded what KNDS was willing to provide.

Frank Haun, KNDS CEO, emphasized the importance of maintaining the Leopard 2 as the standard battle tank for Europe and NATO, citing its contribution to interoperability and joint combat power. He stated, “The parties did not manage to agree on configuration.”

Following KNDS’s announcement, Leonardo released its own statement acknowledging the breakdown in negotiations and reaffirming its commitment to supplying the Italian Army with a high-performing, interoperable, and modern solution. Leonardo also hinted at future collaborations with other international partners.

The failure of these talks could impact Italy's plans for a new tracked fighting vehicle and Leonardo's potential stake in KNDS, which would have supported the consolidation of the European land defense industry. Haun confirmed that discussions about Leonardo’s strategic participation in KNDS also fell through.

KNDS, a consortium of Germany’s Krauss-Maffei Wegmann and France’s Nexter, appears to prioritize national interests despite political pressure to create industry synergies in response to Russian aggression and global competition. An industry insider indicated that KNDS’s offer to Italy lacked any technology transfer, which was unacceptable given Leonardo’s capability to integrate its own systems.

A Leonardo official mentioned earlier this year that the Italian firm considered supplying components such as an electro-optical sensor, software-defined radio, the command and control system, and possibly the gun barrel for the tanks. Another source suggested that Italy might cancel its Leopard tank purchase despite parliamentary approval, possibly opting for the Rheinmetall Panther KF51, even though it is only a prototype.

Last year’s cooperation agreement between Leonardo and KNDS also included a potential €5 billion program to build 1,050 tracked fighting vehicles. Leonardo and Italy’s Iveco Defence Vehicles are currently choosing a European partner for the A2CS program, with candidates including KNDS (proposing its Boxer vehicle) and Rheinmetall (offering its Lynx).

The breakdown of the KNDS-Leonardo deal complicates future collaborations, including Italy’s entry into the European battle tank program known as the Main Ground Combat System (MGCS), which KNDS is managing.

US P-8 Poseidon Searches for Russian Submarine Near Florida Amid Rising Tensions

 "The hunt is on!" exclaimed internet users, as a screenshot from a global air traffic monitoring app highlighted activity off the southern coast of the United States. The Russian Navy has dispatched carriers of hypersonic Zircon and Kalibr missiles to Cuba, prompting close surveillance from the Pentagon. A key element of this deployment is the Yasen-M-class nuclear submarine Kazan.

In response, the U.S. Navy recently launched a P-8 Poseidon "submarine hunter" aircraft. Reports from the U.S. Civil Defense News X account indicated that this aircraft was searching for the Kazan, which is positioned 66 miles off the Florida coast and equipped with 4,500-km-range Kalibr-M missiles. This situation has been likened to a new Cuban Missile Crisis.

The U.S. Navy is collaborating with the Royal Canadian Navy in this search effort. To bolster the mission, Canada has deployed its Lockheed P-3 Orion aircraft to work alongside the American P-8 Poseidon. Screenshots from air traffic tracking apps show these aircraft operating in specific areas, flying in circles to conduct their search. Official results of this operation have not yet been disclosed.

Previously, BulgarianMilitary.com reported that the Russian Navy’s frigate Admiral Gorshkov, along with the nuclear submarine Kazan, a tanker, and a tugboat, might have already arrived in Cuba. This display of power, including the deployment of Zircon missiles, is seen as a provocative move that could unsettle the U.S.

The U.S. response has been cautious but vigilant. Despite the proximity of Russia’s advanced vessels to the U.S. fleet, the situation remains tense. Analysts suggest that Russia's deployment of Zircon missile launchers to Cuba is a strategic move to gauge the response from Cuba and other allies. Although Cuba has maintained a neutral stance on Russia’s actions in Ukraine, this deployment could influence the island nation.

The Kazan, a Yasen-M-class nuclear-powered cruise missile submarine, represents an advanced iteration of the original Yasen class with numerous technological upgrades. Measuring approximately 139 meters in length and 13 meters in beam, the Kazan is a formidable presence. Its nuclear propulsion system, powered by a single OK-650V reactor, allows for high speeds and extended operational ranges without frequent refueling. The submarine can dive to depths of around 600 meters and displaces approximately 13,800 tons when submerged, reflecting its robust construction and extensive armament.

With a crew of about 90 officers and enlisted personnel, the Kazan's missions include anti-submarine warfare, anti-surface warfare, and land-attack operations. It is equipped with advanced sonar arrays, electronic warfare systems, and integrated combat management systems, enhancing its situational awareness and combat effectiveness. The Kazan carries a range of weapons, including torpedoes and cruise missiles like Kalibr and Oniks, capable of striking sea and land targets with high precision.

The U.S. deployment of P-8 Poseidon and P-3 Orion aircraft off the coast of Florida is a strategic move to search for underwater threats. Both aircraft use advanced sonar systems, including active and passive sonar, to detect submarines. They deploy sonobuoys, small expendable sonar systems, to gather data transmitted back to the aircraft for analysis. Magnetic anomaly detection (MAD) and electronic intelligence (ELINT) systems further enhance their detection capabilities. The P-8 Poseidon, equipped with advanced electro-optical/infrared (EO/IR) cameras, can visually detect submarines near the surface. Data fusion and sophisticated algorithms integrate information from multiple sensors to accurately identify and track submarines in complex environments.

US Admiral Reveals “Hellscape” Drone Warfare Strategy to Counter China’s Taiwan Invasion Plan

 

The United States is developing a strategy to deploy a vast array of drones to counter a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan. This plan, referred to as the "Hellscape" strategy, aims to use drones to overwhelm and distract Chinese forces, buying crucial time for US and allied forces to mount a full-scale response.

Admiral Samuel Paparo, the commander of US Indo-Pacific Command, outlined this approach at the International Institute for Strategic Studies’ Shangri-La Dialogue Summit. The strategy involves deploying thousands of unmanned submarines, surface ships, and aerial drones as soon as China’s invasion fleet begins crossing the 100-mile Taiwan Strait.

China recently conducted military drills following the inauguration of Taiwan’s new president, intensifying its calls for reunification with Taiwan. US President Joe Biden has hinted at military support for Taiwan in the event of an invasion, which could escalate into a larger US-China conflict involving Washington's regional allies. This makes it essential for the US to develop effective countermeasures against Chinese forces in the Taiwan Strait.

The "Hellscape" strategy heavily relies on autonomous systems, a tactic influenced by the recent war in Ukraine. In Ukraine, drones have been used to launch strikes on control centers, refineries, airfields, and ships, demonstrating that modern air defenses are not impenetrable. This has reshaped how militaries approach modern warfare, with a focus on cost-effective, reusable, and disposable drone technology.

General Kenneth Wilsbach, Commander of the Pacific Air Forces, initially proposed using "attritable" unmanned aircraft against China instead of high-end stealth fighters like the F-35s or F-22s. These lower-cost, disposable drones would serve as decoys, gradually wearing down Chinese defenses by creating numerous targets.

The Pentagon is actively working on this drone warfare strategy, planning to spend $1 billion on the Replicator program this fiscal year. This program aims to rapidly scale and deploy thousands of autonomous systems within the next 18 to 24 months, utilizing AI, robotics, and commercial technology. The Pentagon is also collaborating with defense partners to develop and procure these critical systems.

Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks emphasized the need to counter China’s mass with a mass of drones that are more challenging to target. The US Navy is also working on developing swarming drones, including underwater drones, to counter the numerical superiority of the Chinese PLA Navy in the Indo-Pacific region.

Admiral Paparo highlighted the strategic advantage of US unmanned capabilities, stating that these systems would amplify US advantages in the region. He noted that recent Chinese military drills appeared to be rehearsals for a Taiwan invasion, which the US observed and learned from.

In response to these developments, China has expressed dissatisfaction. The state-owned Global Times criticized the US strategy, suggesting it was a desperate attempt to maintain its dominance and incite Taiwan’s independence efforts.

China Aims for 1,000 J-20 Jets by 2035: Can India's AMCA Narrow the Gap?

 India is striving for self-reliance in developing indigenous fighter jets, with plans to launch the fifth-generation Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) program in 2024. However, by the time the AMCA becomes operational, China aims to have 1,000 J-20 'Mighty Dragon' 5th-generation jets in its arsenal.

China, the second country to deploy an operational 5th-generation fighter, is now advancing towards 6th-generation technologies. The J-20, a twinjet all-weather stealth fighter by Chengdu Aerospace Corporation for the People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF), first flew in 2011 and was revealed in 2016. Entering service in 2017, the PLAAF already has over 200 J-20s, targeting 400 by 2027 and 1,000 by 2035. Some J-20s are positioned less than 150 kilometers from India in the Sikkim region.

The J-20 is designed for air superiority and precision strikes. Currently, the Indian Air Force (IAF) counters with 36 French-built Rafale jets, stationed at the Hasimara air base in West Bengal, close to where J-20s are deployed.

Despite issues with jet engines, China’s early deployment of stealth aircraft gives it a significant lead in maturing 5th-generation capabilities compared to India's AMCA, which is still in the development phase. Retired Air Marshal Anil Chopra highlighted that India is still evolving technologies for its fifth-generation aircraft, including aero-engines, AESA radars, EW systems, and AI-based avionics.

There is pressure within India to accelerate its timeline. The Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) approved Rs. 15,000 crores ($1.9B) in March 2024 to develop the AMCA. The Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA) under the Defense Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) will lead the project, with manufacturing by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL).

HAL is currently focusing on producing more LCA Mk1A jets to fulfill IAF orders before progressing to the LCA Mk2 and then the AMCA. The ADA asserts that the 25-ton twin-engine AMCA will be on par with or superior to other 5th-generation fighters globally once completed.

Air Marshal Chopra suggested that India consider collaborative routes, like joining the GCAP or the French-led FCAS program, to share costs and risks. The IAF’s reliance on aging third-generation jets, while neighboring adversaries rapidly upgrade, adds urgency to the situation. Pakistan might even acquire a fifth-generation fighter before the AMCA.

India's initial quest for a next-gen fighter began 15 years ago with a collaboration with Russia on the Fifth Generation Fighter Jet (FGFA). However, delays and missed deadlines have plagued the DRDO. The AMCA project, originally expected to produce a prototype in three years, now faces a timeline of seven years for its first flight and ten years for induction, pushing initial expectations from 2027 to 2035.

IAF Chief Air Chief Marshal VR Chaudhari advised caution, recommending foreign partnerships for alternative systems if domestic development falters. DRDO Chairman Samir Kamat’s revised timeline aligns with this cautious approach.

Former IAF veteran Vijaindra K Thakur warned about the risks of project delays and technological shortfalls, emphasizing the need for the CCS to stay vigilant about the AMCA’s impact on the IAF’s combat readiness. Balancing self-reliance with operational capability remains crucial for India's defense strategy amidst growing regional threats.

Ukraine to Station F-16s in NATO Countries Amid Russian Threats

 

As Ukraine prepares to receive its first batch of F-16 Fighting Falcons, it plans to station some of these jets at NATO bases outside of Ukraine to protect them from potential Russian attacks. Serhii Holubtsov, a senior official at the Ukrainian Air Force Command, revealed this strategy in an interview with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL). He explained that keeping a number of F-16s at secure foreign bases will ensure they are not targeted within Ukraine, serving as a reserve for maintenance and replacement needs.

Holubtsov did not specify the exact number of aircraft to be stationed abroad but emphasized that the availability of trained pilots would determine how many F-16s remain in Ukraine. Several NATO countries, including Denmark, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Norway, have pledged to supply dozens of F-16s to Ukraine. The first Danish F-16s are expected to arrive this summer, with some Western aircraft remaining at training facilities outside Ukraine for pilot training and other aviation staff.

Holubtsov noted that reserve aircraft at foreign bases would replace damaged ones sent for repairs and be used for pilot training. However, a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) identified bottlenecks in training Ukrainian pilots, with limited capacity at Western training facilities in the US, Denmark, and Romania.

The threat from Russia has escalated with frequent warnings from Moscow. Sergey Shmotyev, Director General of the Russian company Fores, has offered a reward of 15 million rubles ($168,000) for shooting down the first F-16 in Ukraine. Russia maintains that the delivery of F-16s to Ukraine won't significantly alter the conflict, as its long-range missiles can target almost all Ukrainian airfields. Former Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu claimed that Russian air defenses could shoot down all F-16s within 20 days of their arrival in Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that F-16s would be legitimate targets if used against Russian troops from third-country airfields. This has heightened concerns about escalating tensions between Moscow and NATO. Despite these threats, Putin asserted that Russia has no aggressive intentions towards NATO member states but will destroy any F-16s provided to Ukraine, just as it does with tanks and other military equipment.

While Holubtsov did not confirm whether the F-16s stationed abroad would be used to attack Russia, the strategy underscores Ukraine's cautious approach in safeguarding its new assets.