China to Expand Nuclear Arsenal by 90 Warheads by End of 2024

 China is set to significantly increase its nuclear warhead count by at least 90 by the end of 2024, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). SIPRI, which has been tracking global armaments for many years, reports that China's nuclear arsenal has grown from 410 warheads in 2022 to approximately 500 currently. This expansion highlights China’s rapid efforts to enhance its military power, although it still lags behind the US and Russia.

Globally, there are 3,904 nuclear warheads ready for launch, with an additional 5,681 in storage, totaling an alarming 9,585 warheads. Among smaller nuclear powers, India holds 172 warheads, Pakistan has 170, North Korea has about 50, and Israel maintains around 90. North Korea, with sufficient nuclear material, could potentially increase its arsenal to 90 warheads.

The transparency of nuclear arsenals has decreased since the US and Russia paused the New START Treaty in 2023, which previously aimed to limit these arsenals. This has contributed to an arms race, with nations enhancing their nuclear capabilities and developing new launchers and ballistic missile submarines. The ongoing investigations into Iran’s nuclear development and escalating international tensions further exacerbate the situation.

Russia and the United States currently possess the largest number of nuclear warheads, with 5,580 and 5,244 respectively. They account for nearly 90% of the world's total nuclear arsenal. Of these, 3,904 warheads are deployed on missiles and aircraft, marking an increase of 60 from the previous year. This includes 1,710 from Russia and 1,770 from the United States. China is estimated to have 24 warheads deployed on missiles.

SIPRI Director Dan Smith highlights that while the total number of nuclear warheads globally continues to decline as Cold War-era weapons are dismantled, there is an annual increase in the number of operational warheads. This trend is expected to accelerate in the coming years, raising significant concerns.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has emphasized ongoing discussions about possibly deploying additional nuclear weapons within the alliance. He underscores the need to demonstrate NATO’s nuclear capabilities to potential adversaries. Stoltenberg notes that China, Russia, and North Korea are the main challenges for NATO and points out China’s significant nuclear arsenal expansion. He forecasts that by 2030, China's nuclear stockpile could reach about 80% of the size of the US and Russian arsenals.

The production of nuclear warheads involves the extraction and refinement of fissile material, primarily uranium-235 and plutonium-239. Uranium-235 is enriched from natural uranium, while plutonium-239 is produced in nuclear reactors. The fissile material is then fashioned into a core or 'pit' surrounded by a tamper and encased in a high-explosive shell designed to compress the core to a supercritical state when detonated.

The warhead’s triggering mechanism involves conventional explosives arranged to ensure symmetrical compression of the fissile core. Advanced designs may also include a neutron initiator to ensure a rapid and sustained chain reaction. The warhead is then integrated into a delivery system, such as a missile or bomb, with rigorous testing and quality control to ensure reliability and safety. Modern warheads include sophisticated electronics for arming, fuzing, and firing, as well as safety mechanisms to prevent accidental detonation.

Throughout the production process, strict security and non-proliferation measures are enforced to prevent unauthorized use or dissemination of nuclear technology, with oversight by organizations such as the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

Pakistan's Bold 15% Defense Budget Hike Amid Economic Crisis

 

In a surprising move, Pakistan has increased its defense budget by 15% for the fiscal year 2024-25, raising it to $7.6 billion. This hike is part of a larger $67 billion national budget, signaling a commitment to military strength despite economic difficulties.

On June 12, the Pakistani government announced this significant increase in defense spending, which now stands at $7.6 billion (Rs 2,122 billion). This is a notable rise from the previous year’s $6.4 billion (Rs 1,804 billion) and the $5.4 billion (Rs 1,523 billion) in 2022-23. Despite this rise, defense spending as a percentage of GDP remains at 1.7%, consistent with previous years.

The new budget allocates $7.61 billion (Rs 2,128 billion) to defense affairs and services, with significant portions dedicated to employee-related costs ($2.91 billion), operating expenses ($1.83 billion), physical assets ($1.96 billion), and civil works ($0.87 billion).

Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb presented the budget, which is the first for the coalition government of the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) and Pakistan Peoples Party since the February 8 elections.

The Pakistan Economic Survey 2023-24 reveals a decreasing trend in defense spending as a percentage of GDP, from 2.6% in 2020 to 1.7% in 2024. This trend continues into 2025, with the defense budget still representing 1.7% of GDP.

Transparency in Pakistan’s defense budget is a concern, particularly for neighboring India. Significant expenditures, including those related to the nuclear weapons program and paramilitary forces, are reportedly excluded from the official defense budget. Additionally, military assistance from countries like the US and China is not reflected in the budget figures.

Pakistan faces severe economic challenges, with defense spending being the second-largest annual expenditure after debt repayments, which are projected to reach $35 billion next year. By March 2024, Pakistan’s total public debt was $241.16 billion, with substantial portions owed to China, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.

In a bid to avoid economic collapse, Pakistan is negotiating with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a bailout of $6-8 billion. The IMF has made future agreements conditional on the approval of the 2024-25 budget.

The 2024-25 budget aims to achieve economic stability, reduce the public debt-to-GDP ratio, and improve the country’s balance of payments. It also seeks to revitalize the private sector and stimulate economic growth.

Pakistan relies heavily on China for its defense imports, with China being the main supplier of key military equipment. From 2019 to 2023, 82% of Pakistan’s arms imports came from China, including frigates, artillery guns, UAVs, attack helicopters, and fighter jets.

In summary, while Pakistan continues to invest in its military capabilities, the balance between economic stability and defense spending remains delicate. The country’s future will depend on its ability to manage this balance without compromising its economic and military ambitions.

New Su-34 Deliveries to Russian Forces Struggle to Offset Heavy Losses in 2024

 

The United Aviation Corporation (UAC) recently announced via Telegram on June 17 that they have delivered new Su-34 Fullback fighter-bombers to the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS or RuAF). Although the exact number was not specified, images suggest that two aircraft were delivered. 

This delivery is part of a scheduled state order, as stated by Vladimir Artyakov, first deputy general director of Rostec. He emphasized that Rostec aviation enterprises are maintaining consistent aircraft deliveries according to the year's production plan. Yuriy Slyusar, General Director of UAC, highlighted the company's efforts to enhance production, including recruiting over 600 new employees in Novosibirsk this year.

This marks the second delivery of Su-34s in 2024, with the first in April, where UAC showcased two planes taking off. Since January, only four Su-34s have been delivered. However, reports suggest Russia is struggling to offset significant losses, with at least five Su-34s reportedly destroyed in a Ukrainian drone attack on June 14 and claims of ten more shot down earlier in the year. Visual confirmations indicate Russia has lost 26 Su-34s since the invasion began in February 2022.

The Su-34 has become a key asset for the Russian VKS in Ukraine, capable of carrying FAB-500M62 homing bombs. Despite a decrease in air-to-surface missile attacks, the use of cruise bombs has increased. These bombs, equipped with flight control surfaces, allow for launches from a distance, reducing vulnerability to enemy defenses.

The Su-34 Fullback, developed by the Sukhoi Design Bureau, is a twin-engine, all-weather supersonic medium-range fighter-bomber designed for tactical deployment against ground and naval targets and reconnaissance missions. It replaces the older Su-24 Fencer in the Russian Air Force.

The Su-34 measures approximately 23.34 meters in length, with a wingspan of 14.7 meters and a height of 6.09 meters, providing substantial payload capacity and versatility. It is powered by two Saturn AL-31F turbofan engines, each providing 123 kN of thrust, allowing for a maximum speed of Mach 1.8.

Equipped with advanced avionics, including the Leninets V004 radar and the Khibiny ECM suite, the Su-34 offers enhanced combat capabilities. Its digital fly-by-wire control system and modern glass cockpit with multifunctional displays improve maneuverability and pilot efficiency. The Su-34 carries a wide array of air-to-ground munitions and air-to-air missiles, along with a 30mm GSh-30-1 cannon.

With a combat radius of approximately 1,100 kilometers and a ferry range of up to 4,000 kilometers with external tanks, the Su-34 can also be refueled in flight, extending its operational range and mission endurance.

Despite its advanced capabilities, the Su-34's production struggles to keep pace with battlefield losses, highlighting the challenges facing the Russian Aerospace Forces in the ongoing conflict.

Putin's Historic Visit to North Korea: Strengthening Military Ties Amidst Global Tensions

 

The Kremlin has announced that Russian President Vladimir Putin will embark on a two-day visit to North Korea, marking his first trip to the reclusive nation in over twenty years. This visit underscores the growing partnership between the two countries. Following his North Korean visit, Putin will travel to Hanoi, Vietnam, for another two-day visit.

Evidence from Ukraine reveals that Russia's military actions are bolstered by more than just its own arsenal. A recent report from the Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) has unveiled North Korea’s covert role in supporting Moscow's campaign by supplying ballistic missiles.

Since November 2023, North Korea has been discreetly sending artillery rounds and ballistic missiles to Russia, aiding its conflict in Ukraine. The DIA's declassified report highlights North Korea's involvement, showing missile debris in Ukraine that matches North Korean designs.

The DIA report indicates that since November 2023, North Korea has been providing ballistic missiles to Russia, strengthening their alliance. This relationship has grown with increased diplomatic exchanges and visits between the two countries’ leaders. Notably, North Korea was one of the few nations to support Russia’s invasion of Ukraine at the UN.

In September 2023, Kim Jong-un visited Russia, touring military facilities and meeting Putin, which led to Putin planning this reciprocal visit to North Korea.

North Korea’s support for Russia includes supplying at least three million artillery rounds and numerous ballistic missiles. These weapons have been used by Russia in Ukraine, targeting civilian areas and causing significant casualties.

For North Korea, this collaboration offers practical benefits, allowing it to test its missile technology in real-world conditions against advanced missile defenses. This partnership also provides mutual diplomatic support as both nations face heavy Western sanctions.

North Korea has developed advanced missile systems, demonstrated in numerous tests since 2019. The DIA’s analysis compares images of missile debris from Ukraine with North Korean missile designs, confirming their origin.

Historically, North Korea has been a significant player in the global arms trade, selling ballistic missile technology to various countries. Under Kim Jong Un, North Korea has prioritized missile development, creating systems capable of regional and intercontinental strikes, posing a substantial threat to international security.

Putin’s upcoming visit to North Korea follows Kim Jong-un’s rare trip to Russia last year, aiming to solidify their alliance. As both nations face extensive Western sanctions, their relationship has grown closer since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

The upcoming summit between Putin and Kim Jong-un is a pivotal moment in global geopolitics, with both leaders known for their authoritarian regimes and nuclear capabilities. Their meeting signifies a crucial point in international relations, as the world watches their next strategic moves.

India to Reconsider Russian Su-57 Stealth Fighter to Counter China's J-20

 The Indian Air Force (IAF), recognized as the fourth largest air force globally, is currently without a fifth-generation fighter jet. Despite previous involvement in the Sukhoi/HAL Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) project, which was based on Russia's Sukhoi Su-57, India withdrew from the program in 2018. However, the possibility of revisiting this decision remains open.

Globally, 19 countries operate fifth-generation fighters. China uses its Chengdu J-20 ‘Mighty Dragon,’ while Russia employs the Sukhoi Su-57 ‘Felon.’ Seventeen other nations have adopted the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II, with the U.S. exclusively operating the F-22 Raptor. Only the U.S., China, and Russia have developed original fifth-generation fighters, though many nations participate in F-35 development.

The FGFA project aimed to integrate 43 enhancements proposed by India into the Su-57, including advanced sensors and avionics. The Indian variant was planned to be a two-seater, featuring a pilot and a weapon systems operator (WSO). Since stepping away from FGFA, India has focused on developing its own fifth-generation fighter, the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA). However, the Su-57 remains an option, especially given the F-35's unavailability due to India's acquisition of the Russian S-400 air defense system.

The Sukhoi Su-57 is a twin-engine, stealth multirole fighter first developed in 1999 and introduced to the Russian military in 2020. Known for its air superiority and ability to engage surface and maritime targets, the Su-57 boasts stealth features, super-maneuverability, and a large payload capacity. Despite its advanced capabilities, the Su-57 has faced technological and financial hurdles, including issues with structural integrity during early tests.

The Su-57 features a blended wing body fuselage, extensive use of composites, and advanced stealth technologies aimed at reducing radar and infrared signatures. It is equipped with sophisticated avionics, including a modular avionics system and various radar systems for enhanced situational awareness. The aircraft can deploy various countermeasures and is being tested for advanced AI and unmanned teaming technologies.

Russia's production of the Su-57 has been slow, with plans for significant expansion. Initial operational use included deployments in Syria and Ukraine, demonstrating the aircraft's capabilities in combat situations. Future developments include an upgraded Su-57M variant, a potential carrier-based version, and integration with the Okhotnik UCAV for uncrewed operations.

In contrast, China’s Chengdu J-20 ‘Mighty Dragon’ has seen rapid production, with nearly 250 units built. Designed for air superiority and precision strikes, the J-20 features advanced stealth design, powerful radar systems, and high maneuverability. The J-20’s production and deployment have outpaced the Su-57, reflecting China's growing military capabilities.

India, once a partner in the FGFA project, remains cautious about fully committing to the Su-57. Given the challenges and delays in developing the AMCA, India might reconsider the Su-57 or explore other options like the Su-75 Checkmate. However, with China's expanding J-20 fleet and potential threats from neighboring countries, India must act swiftly to ensure its air force remains competitive.

The Su-57 and J-20 will likely compete for market share in regions like Africa, West Asia, and Southeast Asia. Despite their differences, both aircraft offer cost-competitive solutions for countries seeking advanced air combat capabilities. As the global landscape of fifth-generation fighters evolves, India’s decisions will significantly impact its strategic military position.

Why the U.S. Navy Avoided Building Titanium Submarines While Russia Embraced Them

 

During the Cold War, the Soviet Union ventured into using titanium for submarine hulls, beginning with the Project 705 Lira. Titanium's low density, high strength, and corrosion resistance allowed the Lira to achieve high speeds and deep dives. Despite these advantages, titanium posed significant challenges in sourcing and welding, making it a difficult material to work with.

The Cold War era saw rapid advancements in military technology, with both superpowers heavily investing in weapons development. This period of innovation extended to materials science, leading to the development of advanced materials like radar-absorbent coatings and sophisticated tank armor. The Soviet Union's use of titanium for submarine hulls was part of this trend.

Before the 1960s, titanium had never been used for submarine hulls due to its difficulty in sourcing and welding. Steel was the standard material, being easier to obtain and work with. However, titanium's properties—low density, high strength, and resistance to corrosion—were appealing for creating fast and durable submarines.

The Soviets began using titanium for their submarines with the Project 705 Lira. The Lira was designed to be fast, stealthy, and maneuverable, with minimal displacement and crew. Titanium was crucial in meeting these demanding specifications. The original Lira prototype, weighing just 1,500 tons, could achieve speeds over 40 knots, making it one of the fastest submarines of its time.

The Lira featured a titanium hull and a new lead-cooled reactor, allowing it to dive and turn quickly. However, the Soviets soon discovered the drawbacks of working with titanium. Welding titanium was complex, with a small margin for error; any mistake could make the material brittle and weak.

During the Cold War, the U.S. and the Soviet Union often mirrored each other's innovations. If one superpower developed a new technology, the other would rush to create a counterpart. However, the U.S. Navy chose not to follow the Soviet Union's lead in building titanium submarines.

Despite recognizing the power, speed, and stealth of the Lira-class submarines, the U.S. Navy decided that the effort and cost of using titanium were not justified. Titanium is rare, costly, and difficult to shape. Mistakes in welding could compromise the submarine's safety during deep dives. Ultimately, the U.S. determined that the challenges outweighed the benefits, showcasing a rare instance of restraint in Cold War-era weapons development. 

While the Soviet Union embraced titanium for its submarine hulls, the U.S. Navy opted out due to the material's complexities and high costs. This decision highlights a strategic choice to prioritize practicality and safety over potential advantages, marking a notable moment of caution in the otherwise competitive landscape of Cold War military innovation.

US Security Agencies Still Favor Chinese DJI Drones Despite Federal Bans

 The introduction of the Countering CCP Drones Act and the Drones for First Responders (DFR) Act has ignited debate in the United States over national security and local safety.

Despite federal restrictions, local police, firefighters, and rescue workers continue to favor Chinese drones due to their advanced technology and cost-effectiveness.

Banning Chinese Drones

In 2017, the U.S. Army banned DJI drones due to cybersecurity concerns. In April 2023, Florida prohibited public safety agencies from using unapproved drones, including those from China, citing espionage risks. This move faced backlash from first responders and some lawmakers.

Connecticut tried to implement a similar ban but did not succeed.

Legislation Against Chinese Drones

U.S. lawmakers are advancing legislation to block Chinese-made drones. The Countering CCP Drones Act, included in the draft of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for fiscal year 2025, aims to prevent new DJI products from entering the U.S. market by adding DJI to the Federal Communications Commission’s (FCC) ‘Covered List.’ This would stop the FCC from approving new DJI equipment in the U.S. Existing DJI drone users wouldn’t be immediately affected, but the federal government could ban their use in the future.

The Drones for First Responders (DFR) Act seeks to enhance national security while supporting U.S. drone manufacturing. It proposes tariffs on Chinese drones, starting at 30% and increasing annually by 5%, to make U.S.-produced drones more competitive. Revenue from these tariffs would fund American drone purchases for public safety departments.

China’s Drone Dominance

Da Jiang Innovations (DJI) dominates about 70% of the global commercial drone market and 80% of the U.S. market. DJI is reportedly collaborating with U.S.-based Anzu Robotics to license its technology for American sales. Hong Kong-based Cogito Tech Company Limited, which registered with the FCC in August 2023, also markets drones similar to DJI products in the U.S.

Even American company Skydio uses Chinese-manufactured parts in its drones.

Popularity of Chinese Drones in the US

Chinese drones remain popular among U.S. law enforcement agencies, despite federal restrictions. Agencies in states like Kentucky, New Jersey, and Connecticut use their budgets to purchase these drones due to their cost-effectiveness. Higher tariffs have not deterred these agencies from buying Chinese drones.

Affordability vs. Security

The main appeal of Chinese drones is their affordability and advanced technology. U.S.-made drones are three to four times more expensive and lack the same technological sophistication. Labor costs, production scale, and custom chipset expenses are major barriers to reducing prices for U.S. manufacturers.

The Association for Uncrewed Vehicle Systems International (AUVSI) attributes the price disparity to DJI's dominance and Chinese government subsidies. AUVSI points out that U.S. manufacturers struggle to secure funding to expand production as demand favors cheaper Chinese drones.

While U.S. manufacturers focus on cost and technology, the federal government is primarily concerned with security.

Security Concerns

Defense experts warn about the potential data collection risks of DJI drones. Although various U.S. government agencies continue to buy Chinese drones, there are ongoing warnings about the security risks.

Market Dominance

Chinese drones hold 92% of the first responder market in the U.S. DJI, without revealing exact U.S. revenue figures, confirmed that the U.S. remains one of its largest markets outside China. The company denies allegations of data backdoors for the Chinese government and claims its drones can operate offline without internet connectivity.

DJI criticized the DFR Act's higher taxes and potential bans on Chinese drones as ‘xenophobia’ disguised as national security concerns.