Tuesday, June 25, 2024

Russia Claims to Shoot Down US Global Hawk Drone Over Black Sea

 





After Russia blamed the United States for a Ukrainian ATACMS missile strike on Crimea, which resulted in civilian casualties, claims emerged on social media suggesting that Russian forces had shot down a US RQ-4B Global Hawk Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) over the Black Sea.

Prominent Russian military bloggers, including Fighterbomber, which reportedly has close Kremlin ties, shared these claims. They asserted on Telegram that a Russian MiG-31 interceptor had downed a US RQ-4B UAV over the Black Sea. Some bloggers even mentioned that Russian President Vladimir Putin praised the pilot responsible for the mission.

The Fighterbomber channel stated, “If [the Americans] fly again, it means they are prepared for the loss of a Global Hawk (or even more than one).”

However, these claims lack concrete evidence. The Kremlin has not acknowledged the rumors, and neither the Ukrainian Armed Forces nor the US military has commented on them.

The claims have generated significant discussion among Ukrainian military bloggers and open-source intelligence accounts tracking the ongoing conflict. A popular account expressed skepticism, noting, “If an interception or attack on a Global Hawk happened, we would likely see a video from the Russian Ministry of Defense.”

 Kyiv-based security analyst Jimmy Rushton wrote on X (formerly Twitter) that no such incident occurred over the Black Sea and that the pro-Russian accounts’ claims were fake news. As of this report, the US Department of Defense (DoD) had not commented on these developments.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian military bloggers reported that the drone in question returned to its base unharmed.

These claims followed the Kremlin's accusation that the United States was responsible for a Ukrainian ATACMS missile attack on Crimea, which resulted in at least four deaths and 151 injuries. Moscow officially warned the American ambassador of impending retaliation.

The Russian Defense Ministry stated, “All flight missions for the American ATACMS operational-tactical missiles are planned by American specialists using US satellite reconnaissance data. Therefore, responsibility for the deliberate missile attack on civilians in Sevastopol primarily lies with Washington, which supplied these weapons to Ukraine, as well as the Kyiv regime, from whose territory this attack was launched.”

While the Russian MoD did not directly link the ATACMS attack to the RQ-4B UAV, Russian media suggested that the US reconnaissance drone circled over the Black Sea during the Ukrainian attack on Sevastopol. These reports, based on Flightradar flight tracking data, indicated that the Global Hawk might have supported Ukrainian troops during the attack, raising fears of escalating tensions between the Cold War rivals.

The incident echoes a previous event where Russian fighter jets dumped fuel over an MQ-9 Reaper drone over the Black Sea, causing it to lose control and crash into the sea.



The Global Hawk is an advanced aerial reconnaissance system that operates at high altitudes for extended periods, controlled remotely without an onboard crew and unarmed. It has a history of numerous missions across various conflict zones. Equipped with integrated sensors and cameras, it can continuously capture high-resolution images of large areas, day or night, and in all weather conditions. According to manufacturer Northrop Grumman, the Global Hawk can detect targets over 340 miles away from its 60,000-foot operating altitude.

The drone complements manned and space reconnaissance systems by providing continuous, near-real-time coverage using imagery intelligence (IMINT) and signals intelligence (SIGINT) sensors. The precise range of its cameras and sensors remains classified.

The MQ-4A variant of the Global Hawk was shot down by Iranian forces in June 2023 while flying over the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a statement from Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) that the UAV had breached Iranian airspace, sending a “clear message to America.”

The Global Hawk has been extensively used by US forces for sophisticated military operations and has been sold to countries like South Korea and Japan for enhanced surveillance and reconnaissance.

The drone played a critical role in Operation ‘Inherent Resolve’ against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), providing real-time imagery and signals intelligence to help commanders make crucial decisions, distinguish between friendly and enemy forces, identify long-term targets, and monitor hostile equipment movements.

Recently, the US Air Force deployed RQ-4 Global Hawks to a base in Japan as part of a rotational deployment strategy to support sustained operations in the region and maintain a “free and open Indo-Pacific region.”

Russia has frequently noted how NATO and US aircraft, such as the RC-135 Rivet, RQ-4B Global Hawk drone, and the E-8 Joint STARS reconnaissance aircraft, fly around Ukraine’s coast and the Black Sea to support Kyiv’s military operations.

The Global Hawk was reportedly involved in the October 2022 maritime drone strike on the Russian Navy’s Black Sea Fleet in Crimea’s Sevastopol. Russian forces have cited the drone's involvement in several such Ukrainian operations.

Moscow is using the ATACMS attack to strengthen its argument that it is fighting a proxy war against the West, questioning Washington’s intentions.

India and US Discuss Co-Producing Javelin Anti-Tank Missiles Amid Rising Military Cooperation





 A key weapon in Ukraine’s military arsenal, the shoulder-fired Javelin anti-armor weapon, might soon be co-produced in India if ongoing talks between New Delhi and Washington are successful. During a recent visit to India by US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, the two countries discussed various joint production proposals, including Javelin anti-tank missile systems for the Indian Army.

The Javelin, produced by Raytheon and Lockheed Martin, is a 46-pound, shoulder-fired weapon capable of penetrating any tank or mobile vehicle on the battlefield, and it can also down helicopters. The Indian Army has been seeking shoulder-fired ATGMs for almost a decade, and if discussions proceed, a local partner will be identified to establish a manufacturing plant in India.

Operated by a two-soldier team, the Javelin fires a heat-seeking missile with a range of up to 2.5 miles. Known as a “fire and forget” system, it allows soldiers to seek cover immediately after firing. The Javelin is named for its ability to strike tanks from above, like a spear, and can also directly target low-flying helicopters.

To address its anti-armor weapon needs, the Indian Army acquired Spike ATGMs from Israel in 2020 to counter Chinese aggression. Recently, India’s Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) and the Indian Army test-fired a man-portable anti-tank guided missile (MPATGM) system at the Pokhran field firing range in Rajasthan.

On April 14, 2024, the Indian Ministry of Defence announced that the MPATGM system—comprising missiles, a tripod-mounted command launch unit, a target acquisition system, and a fire-control unit—was field-evaluated in various configurations to validate its technology.

The Pentagon has supplied more than 10,000 Javelin systems to Ukraine, where experts believe the weapon significantly helped Ukrainian light infantry against Russian mechanized forces. The FGM-148 Javelin costs about $176,000 each. In August 2023, Lockheed Martin announced plans to nearly double Javelin production from 2,100 to nearly 4,000 units per year by 2026.

India and the US are discussing several joint defense projects. Previously, EurAsian Times reported a proposal to co-produce Stryker armored vehicles in India after an initial off-the-shelf purchase via the Foreign Military Sales route. However, none of these deals have been finalized yet.

Indian company Larsen and Toubro has partnered with France’s MBDA to develop missiles and weapon systems in India, including fifth-generation anti-tank guided missiles (ATGM5s), missiles for coastal batteries, and high-speed target drones. The prototype, showcased as ATGM-5 at DefExpo in Chennai, will be produced in India with complete technology transfer.

The Indian Army is actively enhancing its firepower to counter threats from both its eastern and western borders. In June 2023, it issued a Request for Information (RFI) for acquiring 5,000 fire-and-forget missiles and 500 launcher systems to be mounted on license-built BMP-2/2K ‘Sarath’ Infantry Combat Vehicles. The RFI specifies that the ATGMs should support top and direct attack modes, with the capability to penetrate at least 650 mm rolled homogeneous armor equivalent (RHAe) and explosive reactive armor (ERA).

Currently, the Indian Army uses the French-made MILAN 2T ATGM for light anti-armor warfare, capable of destroying targets up to 2 kilometers away. Another widely used system is the Russian-made 9M133 Kornet ATGM, which targets heavy armor. The Army also maintains a large stockpile of the 9M113 Konkurs system, known in NATO circles as the ‘AT-5 Spandrel’.

Additionally, India has developed an indigenous third-generation ATGM called Nag, which employs infrared homing and millimetric wave active-radar homing technologies. Nag has three versions: a vehicle-mounted version (based on the Namica launcher), a heliborne version (HeliNa), and a man-portable version (MP-ATGM).

Monday, June 24, 2024

Russia Intensifies Air Strikes on Ukrainian Airfields Amid Arrival of F-16 Fighter Jets

 




As Ukraine prepares to receive its first F-16 fighter jets, there has been an increase in Russian air strikes targeting Ukrainian airfields. These strikes appear to be Moscow’s attempt to disrupt Kyiv’s infrastructure needed to operate the F-16s.

Reports on social media suggest that on June 22, the Russian Black Sea Fleet attacked Ukrainian infrastructure, including the Vasilkov airfield near Kyiv, using sea-launched Kalibr cruise missiles. A video on Platform X (formerly Twitter) showed at least four missiles in flight. Photos on social media later depicted the alleged destruction caused by the attack. Pro-Russian military bloggers made these claims, but the Ukrainian Armed Forces have not commented.

Military analysts suggest the strategy aims to weaken the Ukrainian Air Force by destroying potential F-16 bases. If accurate, this would be the second strike on Vasilkov this month. Earlier reports indicated an oil depot at the airfield was targeted, causing a fire visible from space.

Previously, Russia also launched missile strikes on Starokostyantyniv in the Khmelnytsky area, another potential F-16 base. Russia has threatened to strike any Ukrainian airfield housing the F-16s, most of which are within the range of Russian missiles. Ukraine has announced plans to station some F-16s on NATO territory to safeguard them from attacks.

Ukraine is set to receive F-16s from Denmark in the coming weeks, with additional pledges from the Netherlands, Norway, and Belgium. Some donor countries have suggested using the jets for strikes inside Russia, heightening Kremlin concerns.

While facing relentless Russian air strikes, Ukraine has been targeting Russian air defenses in preparation for the F-16s’ arrival. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted Ukraine’s efforts to degrade Russian air defenses to enable effective use of manned aircraft. Recent Ukrainian actions have targeted key Russian air defense systems, including modern systems like the S-400, which were hit by Ukrainian drones.

The S-300/S-400 air defense systems and Su-57 fighters are vital for Russia to restrict Ukrainian air operations and support its offensive. Kyiv has strategically targeted these platforms as both sides engage in intense aerial strikes.

On June 23, Russian authorities reported that Ukrainian drone and missile attacks on Crimea resulted in six deaths and over 100 injuries. Russia blamed both the United States and Ukraine, claiming the attack involved US-provided ATACMS missiles. Russian air defenses reportedly shot down 33 Ukrainian drones over Bryansk, Smolensk, Lipetsk, and Tula.

Additionally, reports suggest Ukraine attacked a Russian warehouse used for launching and training with Iranian-made drones. Satellite images confirmed the destruction of facilities in the Krasnodar Territory on June 21.

Russia has also increased the use of guided bombs on Ukrainian territory, with recent attacks in Kharkiv resulting in multiple fatalities. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has called on allies to strengthen Ukraine’s air defenses, emphasizing the need for modern systems like Patriots, accelerated pilot training for F-16s, and extended weapon range.

Over the weekend, Russia targeted Ukraine’s power infrastructure, marking the ninth attack on energy installations in three months, according to Ukraine’s energy ministry.

China Advances Toward Sixth-Generation Fighter Jet with Significant Progress





 Despite China's notorious secrecy surrounding its defense projects, there are signs of progress in developing a sixth-generation fighter jet. The clearest indication came from a January 2019 WeChat post by the Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC). In an interview, Wang Haifeng, the chief designer at Chengdu Aerospace Corp., an AVIC subsidiary, revealed plans for a combat aircraft designed to "protect the sea and sky" by 2035.

Wang mentioned features such as manned-unmanned teaming, artificial intelligence, enhanced stealth, and omnidirectional sensors. In 2022, U.S. Air Combat Command’s head affirmed these efforts are "on track," noting that China views sixth-gen technology similarly to the U.S., emphasizing stealth, processing power, and reprogrammable open-mission systems.

Rick Joe, a Chinese military expert, now considers these sixth-gen efforts a confirmed program. Since 2019, there have been more indicators, including AVIC artwork of next-gen fighter designs, academic papers, and statements from officials. In October 2021, satellite imagery showed a tailless fighter-like airframe at Chengdu Aerospace facilities.

Joe reported that demonstrator testbeds, possibly subscale versions, have already flown. Without an official name, he referred to the aircraft as the J-XD, noting it might initially have less capable subsystems compared to U.S. equivalents but is closing the technological gap.

Sixth-gen fighters are expected to feature advanced aerodynamic design, radiofrequency materials, flight control software, sensing technologies, data-linking and combat-management systems, weapons, and integration with collaborative drones. Joe believes China is competing on par with other nations pursuing similar capabilities.

However, Brendan Mulvaney, director of the U.S. Air Force’s China Aerospace Studies Institute, expressed a more cautious outlook. While he acknowledges China’s potential to develop advanced fighters in the future, he doubts they have the capability today. He highlighted China’s challenges with jet engine development but noted significant improvements.

Mulvaney suggested that China's future fighter might be optionally manned, allowing for autonomous operations or serving as a loyal wingman. While Chinese drone technology is ambitious, it remains unclear how it will complement a sixth-gen fighter. Joe noted that current Chinese combat drones displayed at air shows are likely not representative of those intended for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), which are probably more advanced.

The GJ-11 combat drone, unveiled in 2019, exemplifies China's progress in unmanned systems. Joe believes sophisticated combat drones are in advanced development or limited trial service. The J-20 fighter's twin-seat variant, designed for manned-unmanned teaming, could also contribute to these efforts.

If Wang's prediction of an operational sixth-gen fighter by 2035 is accurate, a maiden flight would need to occur by 2028, implying a prototype should be ready soon. While Joe is confident in this timeline, Mulvaney estimates China will reveal a meaningful design in the late 2030s or early 2040s.

Russian Spy Ships Allegedly Gathering Intel on Israel's Newest Submarine INS Drakon





 Following allegations of U.S. surveillance on China's Fujian aircraft carrier, there are now claims that Russia might be collecting critical intelligence on Israel’s latest submarine, INS Drakon. Naval analyst H.I. Sutton suggested that two Russian spy ships, the Sibiryakov and Wassili Tatischtschew, were likely monitoring Israel’s new submarine, which is currently undergoing sea trials in Kiel, Germany.

The submarine, constructed by ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS), has drawn significant attention. An analysis by Droxford Maritime indicated that Sibiryakov had been sent to observe the sea trials, while German media reported that Wassili Tatischtschew positioned itself off Kiel.

Russia has a history of deploying spy ships to gather intelligence on adversaries. For example, in April last year, Russia was accused of using a spy ship in Nordic waters to potentially sabotage underwater cables and wind farms. Since 2014, allegations have surfaced about Russian ships eavesdropping on North Sea facilities, with at least 50 vessels reportedly lingering near power facilities, oil and gas sites, and military training grounds during NATO exercises, according to public media investigations in Denmark, Finland, Sweden, and Norway.

Earlier this year, a Russian spy ship, the Kareliya, lingered near Japan’s coastline during a 10-day deployment. Spying during sea trials is common, as it allows navies to build an acoustic library of new submarines, monitor their performance, and gather data more easily than when the vessels are in active service.

INS Drakon, the latest and most advanced of Israel’s Dolphin II class attack submarines, features a large sail likely housing vertical launch tubes for strategic missiles. Once operational, it will be part of Israel’s nuclear deterrent, making it a prime target during its sea trials. Experts note that the marine pathways used are usually closed off to the public, making the alleged Russian surveillance more significant.

Droxford Maritime observed that while the Israeli submarine’s movements haven’t been reported, it was seen being fueled in early June, indicating ongoing trials. These claims echo similar accusations by China against the U.S. earlier this year. China alleged that a U.S. Air Force electronic intelligence aircraft was conducting surveillance on its newest aircraft carrier, the Fujian, during its sea trials in May 2024.

Flight-tracking data from Hans M. Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists showed the U.S. spy plane conducting surveillance missions along the Chinese coastline on May 7, 9, 10, and 13. The operations, originating from Okinawa’s Kadena Air Base, involved long-haul flights over strategically important regions, including the Luzon Strait, the Paracel Islands, and the Pearl River Delta. The U.S. Defense Department did not disclose the specifics of these operations, but they were seen as attempts to gather intelligence on the Chinese carrier amid rising tensions between China and the West.

Israeli Air Force Grounds F-16 Squadron After Targeting Errors in Gaza





 The Israeli Air Force (IAF) has temporarily grounded an F-16 squadron stationed at Ramon Air Base for three weeks due to two significant incidents of incorrect targeting in Gaza. These errors, which the IAF described as a “landmark error,” occurred twice within a span of two weeks, revealing critical flaws in target verification and operational procedures.

The first incident was caused by the incorrect entry of ground coordinates, leading to an unintended target being hit. Despite changes to procedures after this mistake, a similar error happened days later during an overnight mission targeting five locations in Gaza. A digit error in the target coordinates led to another incorrect strike.

An IAF spokesperson highlighted the failure to follow ground verification procedures, attributing the mistakes to “negligence in entering waypoints, non-compliance with additional control procedures by the crew, and a failure to adapt to the updated procedures after the initial error.”

Fortunately, there were no casualties or damage from these incidents. The grounding of the squadron aims to prevent future errors and reinforce strict adherence to targeting protocols. The IAF plans a thorough investigation to address the root causes and implement stronger preventive measures.

This incident follows another significant error by the IAF nearly a month earlier when a combat aircraft accidentally dropped a bomb intended for Gaza on Israeli territory. The unexploded bomb, found on May 17 in Yated village near the Gaza border, posed a serious risk to local residents.

The recent grounding of the squadron comes amid escalating tensions and ongoing conflict in the region, emphasizing the critical need for precise military operations to maintain international credibility and minimize unintended consequences.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that the “intense phase of the war with Hamas in Gaza is about to end,” but military operations would continue until Hamas is eliminated. He indicated that the conflict might soon shift focus to the northern border with Lebanon, where clashes with Hezbollah have intensified, underscoring the broader regional instability Israel faces.

ATACMS with Cluster Warheads Breaches Russia's S-500 Defense in Sevastopol Attack, Escalates US-Russia Tensions



 


Tensions between Russia and the United States have sharply increased following a significant missile strike on Sevastopol, Crimea, on June 23, resulting in four deaths, including two children, and about 150 injuries from missile debris falling on a nearby beach. Russian officials assert that the missiles were US-supplied ATACMS.

The Russian defense ministry stated that the ATACMS missiles, capable of hitting targets up to 300km away, were responsible for the attack. The incident has led to chaotic scenes in the Uchkuyevka area, with beachgoers fleeing and injured individuals being assisted.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov condemned the strike as “barbaric,” accusing the US of "killing Russian children" and supporting Kyiv in committing acts of international terrorism. He emphasized the US involvement, claiming that all ATACMS are programmed and guided by American specialists.

The Russian defense ministry reported intercepting five cluster warhead-loaded missiles launched by Ukrainian forces. Despite this, significant casualties and damage occurred due to falling debris. Additionally, an American UAV, the Global Hawk, was reportedly present over the Black Sea during the attack, further implicating US involvement.

ATACMS are ground-launched ballistic missiles that travel at speeds up to 2,300 mph, making them challenging to intercept. Upon launch, Russia’s radar systems activate, but the missile's speed leaves only about three minutes to respond, straining air defense units.

The US approved sending Ukraine its first batch of ATACMS with a 165 km range in October. In March, a long-range version capable of hitting targets up to 300 km away was sent. These missiles have significantly impacted Russian targets in Crimea since their first use in April.

In mid-May, a major ATACMS attack on a Russian base in Belbek, Crimea, destroyed an S-400 radar and two launchers. Analysts report substantial Russian losses, including command posts, radars, and launchers.

Russian military expert Vasily Dandykin acknowledged the effectiveness of ATACMS, emphasizing the need for improved air defenses and preemptive strikes on Ukrainian missile systems.

Meanwhile, the Kyiv Post reported that ATACMS breached Russia's S-500 air defense system for the first time, indicating a significant escalation in the conflict and highlighting the missile's capability to penetrate Russia’s most advanced defenses.