Western Sanctions Fail to Diminish Russian Military-Industrial Output Amid Ukraine Conflict

 

Despite extensive sanctions and significant efforts, Western nations have been unable to effectively undermine Russia's military-industrial complex. This issue extends beyond electronic components, which continue to reach Russia through alternative and more costly routes despite export restrictions. The production of shells, missiles, armored vehicles, and drones has surged, enabling President Vladimir Putin to persist in his aggressive campaign against a neighboring country.

Experts from the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), Jack Watling and Gary Somerville, attribute the West's failure to halt Russia’s military operations to a lack of a unified approach during the initial sanction phase, among other factors.

A significant issue is Europe’s lack of infrastructure to enforce sanctions effectively, unlike the United States. Europe has historically treated sanctions more as a regulatory tool rather than economic warfare, aiming to shame rather than significantly disrupt harmful activities.

Despite the concerted efforts of Ukraine's international allies, Russia continues to obtain nitrocellulose from Germany, Turkey, and Taiwan. Additionally, it sources other essential raw materials for explosives globally, allowing rapid escalation in ammunition production. Since the war began, Russia has significantly increased its production of:

• 152-mm artillery shells: Increasing production by 5.3 times, from 250,000 per year to an expected 1.325 million in 2024. Around 800,000 122-mm shells are expected this year.
• Grad multiple launch rocket systems: Production will increase by 15.2 times, from 33,000 to over 500,000 shells. The Uragan system will see a 6.1 times increase, from 2,800 in 2023 to 17,000 this year.
• Kh-101 cruise missiles: Production has increased from 56 units in 2021 to a projected 420 units in 2023, aiming for 460 units.
• 9M723 Iskander missiles: Production has more than tripled, rising from 50 in reserve at the start of 2023 to 180 within a year.
• Iranian Shahed-136 drones: Production has surged 6.3 times, with collaborative production in Russia and Iran now exceeding 250 units monthly.

Estimating armored vehicle production in Russia is challenging. In 2024, Russia is projected to produce around 1,500 tanks and 3,000 other armored vehicles, with 85% being refurbished from existing stocks. The production of new armored vehicles is also increasing, with the Kurgan Machine-Building Plant's BMP-3 units production recorded at 100, 108, 120, and 135 units quarterly in 2023.

Russian manufacturers have adapted to losing access to Thales’ thermal imagers from France by substituting them with Chinese and Belarusian alternatives. These conversions require machine modifications, but significant imports from the United States, Europe, Taiwan, and other countries continue, including essential software updates.

The importation of dual-use goods critical to Russia's military-industrial strength has surged since President Putin met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in March 2023, according to a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Deliveries of helicopter parts, navigation systems, and precision machinery for weapons and aircraft components have jumped from a few thousand to nearly 30,000 monthly, enabling the Kremlin to expedite the production of armaments like armored vehicles, artillery, missiles, and drones. This boost has fortified their defenses during the Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2023, explained CSIS senior fellow Max Bergmann.

North Korea Tests Multi-Warhead Missile, Escalating Regional Tensions

 On June 27, North Korea announced that it successfully tested a multi-warhead missile, a development that could pose significant threats to South Korea, Japan, and the United States if confirmed. This test is seen as an attempt by North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong Un, to evade missile defenses in South Korea and the US, fulfilling his long-standing ambition for a multi-warhead missile.

The announcement from North Korean state media, KCNA, contradicted South Korea’s assessment of a failed weapon test from the previous day. KCNA reported that the test on June 26 involved the separation and guidance control of individual mobile warheads, marking a significant step in advancing missile technologies.

The test aimed to secure Multiple Independently Targeted Re-entry Vehicle (MIRV) capability, enabling the delivery of multiple warheads to different targets. The missile’s decoy was detected by radar, and the mobile warheads were successfully guided to three target coordinates.

Reports indicate that North Korea used a modified Hwasong-16 booster for a shortened-range test to validate the release of independent warheads. This test, the first of its kind for North Korea, is considered a preliminary step by international observers.

KCNA quoted the North Korean Missile Administration, highlighting the test as part of a full-scale effort to enhance missile capabilities and technologies. Kim Jong Un has listed a multi-warhead missile among his priorities, alongside hypersonic weapons, spy satellites, solid-fuel ICBMs, and submarine-launched nuclear missiles, all of which are in various development stages.

This development is particularly significant amid rising tensions between North Korea and NATO, especially after North Korea’s provocative actions, such as sending waste-filled balloons across the 39th parallel and issuing multiple warnings against US-South Korea cooperation.

Recently, North Korea revived defense cooperation with Russia, hosting Russian President Vladimir Putin and signaling readiness to send troops to fight in Ukraine. Amid this backdrop, the MIRV test gains critical importance, potentially elevating North Korea’s threat level, especially if the warheads are nuclear.

Despite international sanctions, North Korea is believed to have assembled 40-50 nuclear warheads. In November, Kim Jong Un urged exponential nuclear weapon production and aligning with nations opposing the US in a “New Cold War.”

North Korea’s test follows India’s recent MIRV test, which unsettled its nuclear-armed neighbors, Pakistan and China. Unlike South Korea, which lacks nuclear weapons, this development significantly heightens the threat.

MIRVs can overwhelm missile defenses by deploying multiple warheads simultaneously, making interception more difficult. This sophisticated technology requires advanced capabilities, which some US critics believe North Korea might be receiving from Russia, given their military exchanges.

While the world advocates for nuclear non-proliferation, the development of MIRV technology has faced criticism. Hans Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists expressed concerns about the increasing number of countries acquiring MIRV capabilities, warning that it could escalate nuclear tensions.

Similar concerns apply to North Korea, which has issued several nuclear threats. The Washington-based Wilson Center noted that MIRVs would significantly undermine US defense capabilities against a North Korean nuclear strike.

India Eyes Greek Mirage 2000-5 Fighter Jets for Spare Parts

 

Athens has proposed to New Delhi the acquisition of 18 Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets that are nearing the end of their operational lifespan. While local Indian sources have confirmed the offer, the exact value of the potential deal remains undisclosed by both governments. The next step involves Indian experts conducting a technical evaluation of these fighters.

India’s interest in the Mirage 2000-5 primarily lies in securing spare parts. As a major operator of this iconic French aircraft, India aims to keep its Mirage 2000 fleet operational until around 2035. With France no longer producing the Mirage 2000 or its spare parts, this acquisition is seen as highly valuable.

According to Indian source idrw.org, these Greek Mirage 2000-5s, despite their age, could provide essential components to extend the life of India’s existing fleet. This is crucial until newer generation aircraft like the Tejas MkII are fully integrated into the Indian Air Force.

A significant aspect of the proposed deal is the inclusion of a valuable two-seater variant. This variant is essential for pilot training, especially after India lost two such trainers. Experts believe its condition will be meticulously inspected to determine if it can be airworthy or provide parts to restore a trainer lost in recent accidents.

The Indian Air Force’s inspection of the Greek Mirage 2000s will be pivotal in assessing the deal’s feasibility. If the aircraft prove suitable—whether as parts donors or training platforms—the acquisition could offer a temporary solution until the Tejas MkII fighters are operational.

The Mirage 2000-5, developed by Dassault Aviation of France, is a versatile single-engine fourth-generation jet fighter. It excels in air superiority, ground attacks, and reconnaissance missions. It measures 14.36 meters in length, 9.13 meters in wingspan, and 5.20 meters in height, with a wing area of 41 square meters. Powered by a SNECMA M53-P2 afterburning turbofan engine, the Mirage 2000-5 can reach speeds up to Mach 2.2.

The technical specifications include a maximum takeoff weight of 17,000 kilograms, a service ceiling of 17,060 meters, and a rate of climb of 285 meters per second. Its advanced electronics include the RDY radar, HUD, MFDs, and a precise navigation system combining inertial navigation with GPS.

The Mirage 2000-5 is equipped with ECM, RWR, and chaff/flare dispensers to detect and counter incoming threats. It can carry a variety of weapons, including air-to-air missiles like the MICA, Magic II, and Super 530D, laser-guided bombs, regular bombs, and air-to-ground missiles such as the AS-30L and Exocet. It also has a 30mm DEFA 554 cannon for close combat. With additional fuel tanks, the Mirage 2000-5 can fly about 3,335 kilometers, with a combat range of about 1,550 kilometers without refueling.

In summary, India’s potential acquisition of Greek Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets is driven by the need for spare parts to extend the operational life of its existing fleet. The deal’s feasibility will depend on the technical evaluation of these aircraft by Indian experts.

Russian Navy Demonstrates Submarine Strength with Baltic Sea Training Exercises Amidst Rising NATO Tensions

 Despite the challenges of the Ukraine War, the Russian Navy continues to demonstrate its strength through its submarine fleet. Recently, the submarines "Novorossiysk" and "Dmitrov" participated in a training exercise in the Baltic Sea, as reported by the state news agency TASS. The Russian Navy announced that the diesel-electric submarines showcased their capabilities during this exercise. The press release stated: “In the Baltic Sea, after anti-submarine exercises, the ‘Novorossiysk’ crew performed a torpedo attack using practice ammunition [without a warhead].”

During the exercise, the submarines engaged in combat scenarios against each other, practicing maneuvers to evade enemy attacks and enhance intra-ship operations during both training and combat tasks. The crews also conducted drills to detect and track submarines representing a hypothetical enemy. After the torpedo-launching exercise, the submariners continued their planned combat training in the Baltic Sea.

These drills are critical due to the increasing tensions between Russia and NATO in the Baltic region. Recently, Russia attempted to alter the maritime border in the eastern Baltic Sea, escalating tensions with NATO, though the plan was later retracted.

 Commons Russia uses its submarines to project power and send messages to its rivals. This was evident when Russia's nuclear-powered submarine Kazan, along with other ships, conducted a military drill in the Caribbean and approached the US coast. During its journey from Norway to Cuba, the Russian group, led by the frigate Admiral Gorshkov equipped with Zircon hypersonic missiles, was closely monitored by a NATO P-8 ‘Poseidon’ anti-submarine aircraft. The submarine was also spotted near Scotland’s west coast en route to Cuba, near the HM Naval Base Clyde at Faslane, home to the UK’s nuclear submarines and other Royal Navy ships.

Western nations, including the United States, dismissed concerns about the nearby Russian submarine, though its close presence raised fears of potential espionage. This port visit occurred as the U.S. closely monitored rising tensions in the Ukraine-Russia conflict, with NATO increasing its involvement. The mere 90-mile gap between Cuba and the U.S. did not help ease these fears.

"Novorossiysk" and "Dmitrov" are significant submarines in the Russian naval fleet, each with unique features. "Novorossiysk" is part of the Project 636.3 Varshavyanka-class (Improved Kilo-class) submarines, while "Dmitrov" belongs to the older Project 877 Paltus (Kilo-class) submarines. Both are diesel-electric attack submarines but differ in size, technology, and weaponry.

"Novorossiysk" measures about 73.8 meters (242 feet) in length, with a beam of 9.9 meters (32 feet) and a draft of 6.2 meters (20 feet), displacing around 3,950 tons when submerged. It is powered by two diesel generators and an electric motor, allowing speeds up to 20 knots underwater and 17 knots on the surface. Its operational depth is around 300 meters (984 feet) with a maximum depth of 400 meters (1,312 feet). The submarine is equipped with advanced sonar, including the MGK-400EM sonar suite, modern navigation and combat systems, and carries various weapons, such as 18 torpedoes and Kalibr cruise missiles launched from six 533mm torpedo tubes.

"Dmitrov" is slightly smaller, measuring 72.6 meters (238 feet) in length, with a beam of 9.9 meters (32 feet) and a draft of 6.2 meters (20 feet), displacing about 3,076 tons when submerged. It is also powered by two diesel generators and an electric motor, allowing speeds of up to 17 knots underwater and 10 knots on the surface. It operates at depths of around 240 meters (787 feet) and can go as deep as 300 meters (984 feet). While "Dmitrov" has good sensors and combat systems, it lacks the ability to launch cruise missiles like "Novorossiysk," limiting its modern combat capabilities.

In summary, both "Novorossiysk" and "Dmitrov" are diesel-electric attack submarines, with "Novorossiysk" being more modern and powerful due to its advanced sonar, navigation, and combat systems, as well as the ability to launch Kalibr cruise missiles. "Dmitrov" is smaller and older but still capable, with reliable sonar and torpedoes. These differences illustrate the evolution of Russian submarine technology and the distinct roles these submarines play in the navy.

US Marines Successfully Conduct First Overseas Ship-to-Shore Operations with New Amphibious Combat Vehicles in Okinawa

 

On June 24, 2024, the US Marine Corps conducted its first overseas ship-to-shore operations with the new Amphibious Combat Vehicles (ACVs) at the White Beach Naval Facility in Okinawa, Japan. This event also marked the debut of the ACVs for the Marines stationed in Okinawa. The Marines and sailors from the 15th Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) reached White Beach, partly traveling on the newly deployed ACVs.

The 15th MEU embarked on the amphibious dock landing ship USS Harpers Ferry (LSD 49) and arrived at White Beach on June 18 for a port visit and essential sustainment training. During the operation, personnel boarded the ACVs, which emerged from the well deck of the Harpers Ferry. Boats from the 3rd Expeditionary Operations Training Group then transferred personnel to a pier, simulating safety egress procedures.

After the personnel transfer, the ACV Platoon navigated through the boat basin to come ashore at White Beach for maintenance.

Lt. Col. Nick Freeman, commanding officer of BLT 1/5, 15th MEU, noted that while the training was standard, it was significant as the first overseas ship-to-shore deployment of ACVs. He highlighted the ongoing training at various locations to refine the use of ACVs in their intended environments.

Prior to the ship-to-shore movement, the Marines showcased the ACVs on the Harpers Ferry to other Marine units and members of the Japan Self-Defense Force. Rear Adm. Chris Stone, commander of Task Force 76 and Expeditionary Strike Group 7, praised the ACVs as a "force multiplier" that enhances operational flexibility and response capabilities in maritime environments.

The ACVs' first operational deployment occurred in May during the Balikatan exercise in the Philippines, where they were used in live-fire exercises. The ACV platoon launched from the USS Harpers Ferry, organized into assault sections, and engaged shore-based targets using their Remote Weapons Systems with Mark 19 40 mm grenade machine guns.

The US Marine Corps is transitioning to the ACV to replace the older amphibious assault vehicles, following a tragic accident in 2020 that resulted in the deaths of eight Marines and a Navy corpsman. Developed by BAE Systems, the ACV has faced challenges, including rollovers during training exercises, which led to operational restrictions.

The Marine Corps has identified inadequate training on the ACV’s operational differences from its predecessor as a cause of these incidents. The ACV features wheels instead of tracks, a flatter hull, and a smaller size. Concerns have been raised about the ACV's wheeled design not providing a speed advantage over the older tracked vehicles in water. The Marine Corps aims to address this with a "Phase 2" ACV that may meet performance requirements.

Despite these challenges, the eight-wheeled ACV significantly enhances the Marine Corps' capability to transport troops to shore, navigating through surf during assaults and landings. This deployment marks a critical step in modernizing the Marine Corps' capabilities in the Pacific theater, a strategic focus as they prepare for potential large-scale conflicts where amphibious operations will be crucial.

AW609 Tiltrotor Achieves Milestone with First Successful Ship Trials Supported by Italian Navy

 

The AW609 tiltrotor program has reached a significant milestone with its first successful ship trial, conducted with support from the Italian Navy. From April 3-12, the AW609 AC4 aircraft, representing the final production configuration, performed demonstration trials moving from Leonardo’s facility in Cascina Costa to Maristaer Grottaglie Naval Base. The aircraft executed take-offs and landings from the Italian aircraft carrier ITS Cavour, demonstrating effective approach and deck landing capabilities.

The trials highlighted the unique advantages of Leonardo’s tiltrotor in a maritime environment, showcasing its compliance with rigorous operational and safety standards. This positions the AW609 to meet various government and public service needs in Italy and globally.

The demonstration phase included an initial test campaign in a synthetic environment using the AW609 simulator at Cascina Costa. Digital twin applications provided preliminary assessments of activities and maneuvers, enhancing capability development, time efficiency, safety, and sustainability. The aircraft performed deck landings and take-offs in over 15 different conditions, including various wind scenarios.

These trials are part of the ongoing efforts of a joint working group established in 2022, which includes Leonardo, the Italian Navy, the Italian Army, and the Guardia di Finanza (Italy’s Customs Police). The group aims to evaluate the potential of tiltrotor technologies as complementary to existing government assets, offering fast long-range capabilities with vertical take-off and landing. The group's assessments focus on the benefits for logistic transport and, in the future, maritime surveillance.

Lorenzo Mariani, Co-General Manager of Leonardo, emphasized the importance of fast rotorcraft technologies in their capability development. He noted that the recent ship trials, supported by the Italian Navy, are crucial in advancing government applications and leading international tiltrotor initiatives.

Gian Piero Cutillo, Managing Director of Leonardo Helicopters, highlighted the unmatched performance and versatility of the AW609 demonstrated in these trials. He expressed appreciation for the partners involved and anticipation for the next stages of evaluation.

Following these trials, Leonardo will analyze the collected data to refine approaches and enhance the platform for naval operations. The AW609, designed for fast point-to-point transportation over long distances, accommodates up to nine passengers in a pressurized cabin and is set to transform various missions, including public and government roles. The program has logged over 1,900 flight hours in Italy and the USA, leveraging Leonardo’s industrial and technological capabilities in the fast rotorcraft domain.

Philippines Seeks Urgent Talks with China Amid South China Sea Tensions Over Sierra Madre Outpost

The Philippines is urgently seeking to schedule a call with China to address rising tensions in the South China Sea, according to the country's ambassador to the US. The conflict centers around the Sierra Madre, a decaying World War II-era ship grounded on the Second Thomas Shoal, which the Philippines uses as an outpost and resupplies monthly.

Despite a 2016 UN ruling against China's territorial claims, China asserts the area as its own and has increasingly harassed Filipino supply ships. This harassment escalated on June 17 when Chinese sailors boarded Filipino vessels, damaging equipment and injuring eight personnel. One Filipino lost his thumb, leading to a hospital visit from President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., who recently stated that a Filipino death in such confrontations would be considered "very close" to an act of war.

Such a scenario could invoke the mutual defense treaty with the US, potentially involving America in the conflict. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin affirmed America's strong commitment to the treaty but did not provide further comments.

Philippines Ambassador Jose Manuel Romualdez, speaking to reporters in Washington, noted that efforts are underway to de-escalate tensions, including scheduling a call with Chinese counterparts by early July. He emphasized the need for a frank discussion with China to reduce tensions.

Romualdez also confirmed that the Philippines has reinforced the Sierra Madre to improve conditions for stationed soldiers, despite China's objections. He reiterated that the Philippines has no plans to abandon the outpost.

On Wednesday, Austin reaffirmed America's support for the Philippines in a call with his Manila counterpart. The US and the Philippines have strengthened their security relationship over the past year, with the US gaining access to four new military sites in northern Philippines and expanding the "Balikatan" military exercise. The US also deployed a mid-range missile system to the Philippines for the first time in April.

Despite Beijing's objections, the Philippines maintains that the new security agreement is defensive. In April, the US approved a substantial security funding package, including $4 billion for the Indo-Pacific, with a significant portion likely headed to Taiwan and potentially the Philippines.

Ambassador Romualdez emphasized the need for decisive action from all parties involved to address the situation.