Ukraine to Receive Patriot Air Defense Systems from Netherlands, Romania, and Germany Amid Ongoing Conflict

 

Ukraine is poised to receive three Patriot air defense systems and several other defense systems and missiles from Western allies, as announced by Ukrainian Prime Minister Denis Shmyhal.

“Today, we have achieved significant results. Italy will provide us with a second SAMP/T system. Romania will offer one Patriot system. Germany will contribute one Patriot system, along with the IRIS-T system and Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft guns. The Netherlands is currently assembling another Patriot system for us,” Shmyhal shared on Ukraine’s Rada TV channel.

Additionally, the prime minister disclosed that the United States will supply Patriot missiles and the NASAMS anti-aircraft missile system. Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark, Spain, and Norway will also send additional Patriot missiles. Sweden has committed to sending two radar surveillance planes to Ukraine, Shmyhal added.

In early June, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Kyiv had secured agreements with Western nations for more air defense systems, though specific details were not disclosed. Ukrainian officials frequently express concerns about the shortage of air defense systems and missiles, consistently requesting new supplies from their Western allies.

Conversely, Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly asserted that new weapons deliveries to Ukraine will not alter the front-line situation but will only prolong the conflict. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov echoed this sentiment, stating that any shipments of weapons to Kyiv would be considered legitimate targets by Russia.

Back in June, the United States halted the delivery of Patriot interceptor missiles to prioritize supplying them to Ukraine, as confirmed by U.S. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby. Kirby noted that this decision would impact allies relying on the U.S. for Patriot missiles, which are not currently in production. The redirected missiles are expected to arrive in Ukraine within the next few weeks, aligning with the arrival of U.S.-made F-16s capable of carrying AMRAAMs.

Facing a shortage of anti-aircraft systems to counter Russia’s persistent attacks, Ukraine is urging its European allies to implement a no-fly zone in the West by deploying air defense systems in nearby Poland and Romania. Kyiv aims to establish a secure area in western Ukraine to protect industries, energy infrastructure, and civilians from recent Russian strikes.

Lawmaker Oleksiy Goncharenko questioned, “Why doesn’t NATO deploy Patriot systems near the Polish border? Russian missiles have already breached Polish and Romanian airspace. This would safeguard the borders of Poland and Romania, creating a safe zone in the West and South of Ukraine.”

This sentiment was echoed by several Ukrainian civilian and military officials who spoke to AFP in Kyiv during a recent trip organized by the French Institute of International Relations [IFRI] and the local think tank New Europe Center.

Russian Defense Ministry Warns of War Risk with NATO Amid Increased US Drone Activity Over Black Sea

 The Russian Defense Ministry has announced an increased risk of conflict with NATO due to the United States' escalation of strategic drone operations over the Black Sea. These operations aim to monitor and target precision weapons supplied to Ukraine’s armed forces.

“This highlights the growing involvement of the US and NATO in the Ukraine conflict, siding with the Kyiv regime. Such flights significantly heighten the likelihood of airspace incidents with Russian Aerospace Forces aircraft, escalating the risk of a direct confrontation between the alliance and Russia. NATO countries will bear responsibility for this,” the ministry stated.

In response, Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belousov has instructed the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces to prepare proposals for swift actions against what they term US “provocations” involving drone flights over the Black Sea.

Recently, the skies over the Black Sea have been quieter, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense, which has not reported any US drones in the area for several months. However, activity ramped up on June 23 when RIA Novosti, using data from Flightradar24, revealed an American RQ-4B Global Hawk reconnaissance drone flying over the Black Sea during a missile attack on Sevastopol. The Russian Defense Ministry believes that American specialists operated long-range ATACMS missiles during this attack, using gathered intelligence.

On June 24, Russian Telegram channels, including Fighterbomber, reported that a US Global Hawk drone had been shot down over the Black Sea. Despite these reports, neither US nor Russian officials have officially confirmed this, and the Kremlin has refrained from commenting.

In March 2023, an incident involving a US MQ-9 Reaper drone crashing into the Black Sea made headlines. According to the US European Command, the drone was on a routine mission when intercepted by a Russian aircraft, leading to a mid-air collision. The Russian Defense Ministry countered this by denying any contact between their fighter jet and the drone, citing a violation of airspace rules instead.

Following the incident, Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin affirmed that the United States would maintain its flight operations wherever international law permits. He also emphasized that Russian military aircraft must conduct themselves safely and professionally.

Germany and Spain Compete for Indian Navy Submarine Deal with Advanced AIP Technology

 

The Indian Navy's pursuit of fuel cell-based Air Independent Propulsion (AIP)-equipped conventional submarines is moving forward, albeit slowly. Currently, the Navy is evaluating two submarines for its advanced diesel-electric submarine needs, but only one has proven and validated technology. The Indian Navy is conducting field evaluation trials of the AIP technology developed by Spanish shipbuilder Navantia at Cartagena.

This technology has yet to be integrated into the S80 submarine offered to the Indian Navy, although a submarine of this class has already been inducted into the Spanish Navy without AIP technology. Navantia claims that its submarine design meets 'almost' all technical requirements of the P-75I without needing redesign.

Navantia's AIP system for the S80 produces over 300 kW of power, which can be directly applied to P75(I) without scaling up, thus reducing major risks for the Indian Navy. Factory testing of the AIP technology has been completed, simulating actual submarine mission conditions at the Cartagena Shipyard.

Navantia states that the S80 offered to the Indian Navy incorporates the latest technologies, such as Generation BEST AIP (Bio-ethanol Stealth Technology) and an advanced sensor suite. This third-generation AIP system uses hydrogen produced on board from bioethanol instead of stored hydrogen, allowing submarines to sail for up to three weeks submerged with minimal detectable signatures.

The Indian Navy also requires AIP technology combined with Lithium-ion batteries, enabling submarines to operate at high speeds without compromising their position. Navantia and its Indian partner, Larsen and Toubro (L&T), are not collaborating with another partner for proven Lithium-ion battery technology for this project.

Navantia's first submarine equipped with AIP BEST technology is expected to be operational by 2026. However, experts estimate that the AIP system will be ready for operational deployment in about three years, pending further laboratory tests and simulations.

Another submarine under consideration by India is already proven and used by several frontline navies. Recently, a submarine from this class completed a rare voyage under the Arctic ice. This submarine, the Arpão (S161), built by Howaldtswerke-Deutsche Werft (HDW) in Germany, is based on the export-optimized Type 214 design.

ThyssenKrupp has offered India its 214-class submarines, which combine advanced technologies from the 212 CD submarines with the latest AIP developments. These submarines, tailored to the Indian Navy's requirements, will feature Lithium-ion batteries, advanced sensor and combat systems, and enhanced stealth capabilities.

The 212 and 214-class submarines' AIP technology, powered by hydrogen fuel cells, allows for extended submerged operations and silent running, enhancing stealth. These submarines can operate silently, launch torpedoes stealthily, and have countermeasures against torpedoes, providing increased operational flexibility.

The Indian Navy is currently strengthening its undersea fleet, as evidenced by a recent exercise in the Arabian Sea involving eight submarines. Despite challenges such as dwindling fleet numbers and aging submarines, the Navy is pushing forward with plans to build six more conventional diesel submarines under Project-75 I.

However, the Chinese Navy's rapid expansion poses a significant challenge. China has been continuously deploying at least one nuclear-armed submarine at sea and is providing advanced submarine technology to Pakistan. In response, the Indian Navy is enhancing its capabilities to maintain strategic balance in the region.

The Indian Navy's adoption of AIP technology will enhance its fleet's capabilities, putting it in a better position against regional threats. While the Navy considers whether to proceed with proven technology or wait for the deployment of Navantia's AIP BEST technology on an operational submarine, the decision will significantly impact India's undersea defense strategy.

Germany Approves Funding for Supersonic Naval Missile Development and Extensive Missile Purchases

 

Germany's parliament has approved funding for the acquisition of thousands of missiles and the development of a supersonic naval cruise missile, as announced by the Defence Ministry.

In collaboration with Norway, Germany will work on developing the supersonic Tyrfing missile. A key parliamentary committee released funds for Berlin's first venture into creating modern naval missiles, which currently are mostly French or American-made.

While Norway and its state-owned arms manufacturer Kongsberg will lead the project, Germany plans to invest approximately €650 million ($695 million) into the development through 2033.

The new missile, named 3SM Tyrfing, is slated to be operational by 2035. The contract, expected to finalize by August, will involve Diehl Defence and MBDA working on the German side.

Initially, Germany’s portion will be funded from Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s special military fund, established following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. In subsequent years, funding will come from the regular defense budget.

Kongsberg describes the Tyrfing as a “new super missile” to succeed the Naval Strike Missile developed in the early 2000s. The 3SM (Super Sonic Strike Missile) is anticipated to be ready by 2035. Besides Norway and Germany, Kongsberg aims to market the missile to other European armed forces.

Additionally, the German budget committee has approved purchasing up to 3,266 Brimstone 3 rockets, scheduled for delivery by 2033 under a contract expected to pass next month. Initially, 274 missiles and necessary equipment will be purchased from MBDA Germany for about €376 million. An additional 29 Brimstones will be used for operational testing and 75 for training and telemetry.

These rockets are intended for the Eurofighter fleet, the core of Germany’s Air Force. Berlin first announced plans to acquire the air-to-ground missile in 2017. The British Royal Air Force has utilized the Brimstone family of missiles for nearly two decades, including in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria. A contingent of German Eurofighters is also deployed in the Baltics to bolster NATO’s stance against Russia.

The parliamentary budget committee also approved acquiring 506 Stinger man-portable air defense systems, valued at approximately €395 million, to replace 500 ground-to-air missiles sent to Ukraine.

Germany has been a leading supporter of Ukraine, providing more military aid than any country except the United States. According to the Germany-based Kiel Institute for the World Economy, the German government has sent €10.2 billion in military aid to Ukraine as of the end of April 2024.

Western Sanctions Fail to Diminish Russian Military-Industrial Output Amid Ukraine Conflict

 

Despite extensive sanctions and significant efforts, Western nations have been unable to effectively undermine Russia's military-industrial complex. This issue extends beyond electronic components, which continue to reach Russia through alternative and more costly routes despite export restrictions. The production of shells, missiles, armored vehicles, and drones has surged, enabling President Vladimir Putin to persist in his aggressive campaign against a neighboring country.

Experts from the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), Jack Watling and Gary Somerville, attribute the West's failure to halt Russia’s military operations to a lack of a unified approach during the initial sanction phase, among other factors.

A significant issue is Europe’s lack of infrastructure to enforce sanctions effectively, unlike the United States. Europe has historically treated sanctions more as a regulatory tool rather than economic warfare, aiming to shame rather than significantly disrupt harmful activities.

Despite the concerted efforts of Ukraine's international allies, Russia continues to obtain nitrocellulose from Germany, Turkey, and Taiwan. Additionally, it sources other essential raw materials for explosives globally, allowing rapid escalation in ammunition production. Since the war began, Russia has significantly increased its production of:

• 152-mm artillery shells: Increasing production by 5.3 times, from 250,000 per year to an expected 1.325 million in 2024. Around 800,000 122-mm shells are expected this year.
• Grad multiple launch rocket systems: Production will increase by 15.2 times, from 33,000 to over 500,000 shells. The Uragan system will see a 6.1 times increase, from 2,800 in 2023 to 17,000 this year.
• Kh-101 cruise missiles: Production has increased from 56 units in 2021 to a projected 420 units in 2023, aiming for 460 units.
• 9M723 Iskander missiles: Production has more than tripled, rising from 50 in reserve at the start of 2023 to 180 within a year.
• Iranian Shahed-136 drones: Production has surged 6.3 times, with collaborative production in Russia and Iran now exceeding 250 units monthly.

Estimating armored vehicle production in Russia is challenging. In 2024, Russia is projected to produce around 1,500 tanks and 3,000 other armored vehicles, with 85% being refurbished from existing stocks. The production of new armored vehicles is also increasing, with the Kurgan Machine-Building Plant's BMP-3 units production recorded at 100, 108, 120, and 135 units quarterly in 2023.

Russian manufacturers have adapted to losing access to Thales’ thermal imagers from France by substituting them with Chinese and Belarusian alternatives. These conversions require machine modifications, but significant imports from the United States, Europe, Taiwan, and other countries continue, including essential software updates.

The importation of dual-use goods critical to Russia's military-industrial strength has surged since President Putin met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in March 2023, according to a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Deliveries of helicopter parts, navigation systems, and precision machinery for weapons and aircraft components have jumped from a few thousand to nearly 30,000 monthly, enabling the Kremlin to expedite the production of armaments like armored vehicles, artillery, missiles, and drones. This boost has fortified their defenses during the Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2023, explained CSIS senior fellow Max Bergmann.

North Korea Tests Multi-Warhead Missile, Escalating Regional Tensions

 On June 27, North Korea announced that it successfully tested a multi-warhead missile, a development that could pose significant threats to South Korea, Japan, and the United States if confirmed. This test is seen as an attempt by North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong Un, to evade missile defenses in South Korea and the US, fulfilling his long-standing ambition for a multi-warhead missile.

The announcement from North Korean state media, KCNA, contradicted South Korea’s assessment of a failed weapon test from the previous day. KCNA reported that the test on June 26 involved the separation and guidance control of individual mobile warheads, marking a significant step in advancing missile technologies.

The test aimed to secure Multiple Independently Targeted Re-entry Vehicle (MIRV) capability, enabling the delivery of multiple warheads to different targets. The missile’s decoy was detected by radar, and the mobile warheads were successfully guided to three target coordinates.

Reports indicate that North Korea used a modified Hwasong-16 booster for a shortened-range test to validate the release of independent warheads. This test, the first of its kind for North Korea, is considered a preliminary step by international observers.

KCNA quoted the North Korean Missile Administration, highlighting the test as part of a full-scale effort to enhance missile capabilities and technologies. Kim Jong Un has listed a multi-warhead missile among his priorities, alongside hypersonic weapons, spy satellites, solid-fuel ICBMs, and submarine-launched nuclear missiles, all of which are in various development stages.

This development is particularly significant amid rising tensions between North Korea and NATO, especially after North Korea’s provocative actions, such as sending waste-filled balloons across the 39th parallel and issuing multiple warnings against US-South Korea cooperation.

Recently, North Korea revived defense cooperation with Russia, hosting Russian President Vladimir Putin and signaling readiness to send troops to fight in Ukraine. Amid this backdrop, the MIRV test gains critical importance, potentially elevating North Korea’s threat level, especially if the warheads are nuclear.

Despite international sanctions, North Korea is believed to have assembled 40-50 nuclear warheads. In November, Kim Jong Un urged exponential nuclear weapon production and aligning with nations opposing the US in a “New Cold War.”

North Korea’s test follows India’s recent MIRV test, which unsettled its nuclear-armed neighbors, Pakistan and China. Unlike South Korea, which lacks nuclear weapons, this development significantly heightens the threat.

MIRVs can overwhelm missile defenses by deploying multiple warheads simultaneously, making interception more difficult. This sophisticated technology requires advanced capabilities, which some US critics believe North Korea might be receiving from Russia, given their military exchanges.

While the world advocates for nuclear non-proliferation, the development of MIRV technology has faced criticism. Hans Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists expressed concerns about the increasing number of countries acquiring MIRV capabilities, warning that it could escalate nuclear tensions.

Similar concerns apply to North Korea, which has issued several nuclear threats. The Washington-based Wilson Center noted that MIRVs would significantly undermine US defense capabilities against a North Korean nuclear strike.

India Eyes Greek Mirage 2000-5 Fighter Jets for Spare Parts

 

Athens has proposed to New Delhi the acquisition of 18 Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets that are nearing the end of their operational lifespan. While local Indian sources have confirmed the offer, the exact value of the potential deal remains undisclosed by both governments. The next step involves Indian experts conducting a technical evaluation of these fighters.

India’s interest in the Mirage 2000-5 primarily lies in securing spare parts. As a major operator of this iconic French aircraft, India aims to keep its Mirage 2000 fleet operational until around 2035. With France no longer producing the Mirage 2000 or its spare parts, this acquisition is seen as highly valuable.

According to Indian source idrw.org, these Greek Mirage 2000-5s, despite their age, could provide essential components to extend the life of India’s existing fleet. This is crucial until newer generation aircraft like the Tejas MkII are fully integrated into the Indian Air Force.

A significant aspect of the proposed deal is the inclusion of a valuable two-seater variant. This variant is essential for pilot training, especially after India lost two such trainers. Experts believe its condition will be meticulously inspected to determine if it can be airworthy or provide parts to restore a trainer lost in recent accidents.

The Indian Air Force’s inspection of the Greek Mirage 2000s will be pivotal in assessing the deal’s feasibility. If the aircraft prove suitable—whether as parts donors or training platforms—the acquisition could offer a temporary solution until the Tejas MkII fighters are operational.

The Mirage 2000-5, developed by Dassault Aviation of France, is a versatile single-engine fourth-generation jet fighter. It excels in air superiority, ground attacks, and reconnaissance missions. It measures 14.36 meters in length, 9.13 meters in wingspan, and 5.20 meters in height, with a wing area of 41 square meters. Powered by a SNECMA M53-P2 afterburning turbofan engine, the Mirage 2000-5 can reach speeds up to Mach 2.2.

The technical specifications include a maximum takeoff weight of 17,000 kilograms, a service ceiling of 17,060 meters, and a rate of climb of 285 meters per second. Its advanced electronics include the RDY radar, HUD, MFDs, and a precise navigation system combining inertial navigation with GPS.

The Mirage 2000-5 is equipped with ECM, RWR, and chaff/flare dispensers to detect and counter incoming threats. It can carry a variety of weapons, including air-to-air missiles like the MICA, Magic II, and Super 530D, laser-guided bombs, regular bombs, and air-to-ground missiles such as the AS-30L and Exocet. It also has a 30mm DEFA 554 cannon for close combat. With additional fuel tanks, the Mirage 2000-5 can fly about 3,335 kilometers, with a combat range of about 1,550 kilometers without refueling.

In summary, India’s potential acquisition of Greek Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets is driven by the need for spare parts to extend the operational life of its existing fleet. The deal’s feasibility will depend on the technical evaluation of these aircraft by Indian experts.