U.S. To Deny Taiwan New F-16 Fighters

Offers AESA Radar in Upgrade for Older Jets
TAIPEI - Bowing to Chinese pressure, the U.S. will deny Taiwan's request for 66 new F-16C/D fighter aircraft, a Taiwan Ministry of National Defense (MND) official said.

An armed U.S.-built F-16 fighter takes off during a drill in April. A Taiwan Ministry of National Defense official says Taipei will not be able to purchase new F-16s and is “so disappointed” in the U.S. decision. (Sam Yeh / Agence France-Presse)

"We are so disappointed in the United States," he said.

A U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) delegation arrived here last week to deliver the news and offer instead a retrofit package for older F-16A/Bs that includes an active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar.
The visit coincided with the biennial Taipei Aerospace and Defense Technology Exhibition (TADTE), held here Aug. 11-14.
"The U.S. Pentagon is here explaining what is in the upgrade package," a U.S. defense industry source said at TADTE. "They are going to split the baby: no C/Ds, but the A/B upgrade is going forward."
Sources said an official announcement of the decision is expected by month's end.
But an official at the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT), the de facto U.S. Embassy, said "no decisions have been made," while DoD officials declined to comment on their delegation's mission.
The proposed upgrade package would make the 146 Taiwanese F-16A/Bs among the most capable variants of the aircraft, perhaps second only to the APG-80 AESA-equipped F-16E/Fs flown by the United Arab Emirates.
Originally requested by Taipei in 2009, the package would cost $4.2 billion, sources at TADTE said.
The new gear would include an AESA radar, likely either Northrop Grumman's Scalable Agile Beam Radar or the Raytheon Advanced Combat Radar, to replace the planes' current APG-66(V)3 radar.
Either one would be an improvement on the Northrop APG-68(V)9 mechanical radar once contemplated for Taiwan's upgrade package. The switch is meant to soften the blow of denying new planes to Taipei, a Lockheed Martin source said.
A decision between the two AESA candidates could foreshadow the U.S. Air Force's own choice as it prepares to upgrade its fleet of F-16s. The upgrade package will also improve the planes' Raytheon ALQ-184(V)7 electronic countermeasures pod by adding the capacity to intercept and save hostile radar transmissions, then use the same frequency to jam them.
However, ITT is offering the ALQ-211 Advanced Integrated Defensive Electronic Warfare Suite pod as an alternative.
ITT is also offering the BRU-57/A Smart Twin Store Carrier, which doubles the number of bombs an F-16 can carry, an ITT source said.
The package would also replace the AIM-9P/M Sidewinder air-to-air missile with the new AIM-9X; fit the planes to carry enhanced GBU-12 Paveway II laser-guided bombs; and add a digital radar warning receiver, helmet-mounted cueing system and center pedestal display.
The package will not include new engines to better handle the additional weight and electrical draw, though there could be an upgrade to bring the existing Pratt & Whitney F100-PW-220 to the PW-220E standard. The upgrade would swap out obsolete parts for newer ones, but wouldn't offer any additional performance.
Lockheed Martin will be working with Taiwan's state-run Aerospace Industrial Development Corp. (AIDC) to integrate the new gear on the jets.
"Changing a fighter's major sensor should not be taken lightly. It is more than electrical capacity. It is the integration of sensors, weapons, displays, etc., that make a fighter aircraft effective," Lockheed spokeswoman Laura Siebert said.

Consequences

Siebert said the failure to release F-16C/Ds will weaken Lockheed Martin's plans to extend the production line for the fighter.
"While Congress has been notified of Oman and Iraq's desire for F-16s, the Taiwan order for 66 aircraft is very important to the long-term viability of the F-16 production to include the U.S. Air Force, Lockheed Martin and the thousands of suppliers throughout the U.S.," she said.
More than a few TADTE attendees said the Obama administration might reverse the decision as the 2012 presidential election approaches and political pressure for new jobs builds.
A June report by the Perryman Group, a Texas-based economic and financial analysis firm, estimated that Taiwan's F-16C/D program would create more than 16,000 jobs and almost $768 million in U.S. federal tax revenue. Much of that tax revenue and new jobs would go to election battleground states: California, Connecticut, Florida, Maryland, Ohio, Texas and Utah.
But China holds about 8 percent of U.S. debt, the largest block in foreign hands.
As one TADTE attendee said, "Beijing's Kung Fu is better than Washington's."
The denial of the new jets will likely lead AIDC officials to ask the government to expand upgrade plans for Taiwan's 126 Indigenous Defense Fighters, of which 71 are currently slated for upgrades.
The company has also been pushing Taiwan's Air Force to allocate funds for full-rate production of the IDF C/D Goshawk, which features improved range and weapons payload.

Background

In July, the U.S. State Department indicated a final decision on the F-16 issue would be made by Oct. 1. Since 2006, the U.S. has repeatedly denied Taiwan's request for 66 F-16C/D Block 50/52s, a prospective sale estimated at more than $8 billion.
The planes would replace 60 F-5 Tigers and 60 Mirage 2000-5s due for retirement within five to 10 years.
China has called the sale a "red line." A recent editorial in the state-controlled People's Daily called for the use of a "financial weapon" against the U.S. if new F-16s were released.
The U.S. decision comes as a blow to the self-ruled island's effort to counter China's growing military, whose first aircraft carrier began sea trials last week, and therefore to its independence.
There are fears that losing Taiwan could spell the end of U.S. power projection in the region. Losing Taiwan would "change everything from the operational arch perspective to the posture of Japan and the U.S." in the region, said Raytheon's Asia president, Walter Doran, a retired admiral who once commanded the U.S. Pacific Fleet.
Staff writer Dave Majumdar in Washington contributed to this report.

India Tests BrahMos Block III Supersonic Missile

NEW DELHI - Even as Pakistani and Chinese troops jointly conduct war games close to the Indian border, the Indian Army has tested a supersonic missile, the BrahMos Block III, in the Rajasthan desert.
The supersonic cruise missile can engage inaccessible targets, even inside hillocks. The BrahMos Block III, developed jointly by India and Russia, can scale mountainous terrain and then take a steep dive to engage targets located inside hillocks, officials said.

The BrahMos would be used in the mountainous terrain along the Pakistani and Chinese border.
Citing technical issues, officials said the BrahMos test had been scheduled for Aug. 8 but was postponed to Aug. 12.
An Indian Army official said the BrahMos Block III can engage ground targets from a very low altitude and can reach a speed of Mach 2.8 with a solid propellant rocket for initial acceleration and a liquid fueled ramjet to sustain supersonic cruise.
China's People's Liberation Army 101 Engineering regiment is taking part in land exercises inside Pakistan along the Indian border. This is the first time Chinese and Pakistani troops have been spotted carrying out joint exercises.

Japan Calls for China To Explain Aircraft Carrier

TOKYO - Japan's defense minister called on China on Aug. 12 to explain why it needs an aircraft carrier, after Beijing sparked increased concerns over its military expansion by starting sea trials for the vessel.
"As an aircraft carrier, it is of a highly maneuverable and offensive nature. We want China to explain the reasons why it needs it," Toshimi Kitazawa told reporters.

"There is no doubt that it will have a big impact on the region," he added.
China put the revamped Soviet-built aircraft carrier Varyag to sea on Aug. 10, prompting the United States to call for an explanation.
Beijing has sought to play down the vessel's capability, saying it will mainly be used for training and "research."
In its annual defense report last week, Japan expressed concern over China's growing assertiveness and widening naval reach in nearby waters and the Pacific and over what it called the "opaqueness" of Beijing's military budget.
China criticized the report as "irresponsible," insisting its drive to modernize its forces was entirely defensive.

Norway pulls Falcons back

HELSINKI - Norway has withdrawn its F-16 fighter squadron from NATO's Operation Unified Protector (OUP). The return of the F-16s ends Norway's direct involvement in the operation and the enforcement of NATO's no-fly zone over Libya.

Danish F-16 fighters are seen at the Italian military airport of Sigonella in March. Norway has withdrawn its F-16 fighters from NATO's Libya operation, but Denmark's fighter jets have continued bombing missions. (Mario LaPorta / AFP via Getty Images)

The Norwegian Air Force's squadron, comprising six F-16s, flew 596 missions, almost 10 percent of the total by NATO-aligned aircraft, since March. The aircraft dropped 542 bombs and logged about 2,000 hours of flight time over the four-month period, according to Norwegian Ministry of Defense figures.

The number of missions flown by the aircraft declined in June when two F-16s were recalled to Norway from Souda Airbase in Crete. Britain compensated for the partial withdrawal, sending an extra four Panavia Tornado GR.4 ground-attack jets to replace the F-16s.
By contrast, Denmark's F-16 fighter squadron, which joined the operation in early April, dropped some 705 bombs, including seven precision bombs, on Libya, according to the latest data from the Danish Ministry of Defense.
In recent weeks, six Danish Air Force F-16s have been engaged in bombing missions on targets located between Zlitan and the Libyan capital Tripoli. Targets have included military depots and support facilities.
The Libyan mission cost the Danes up to $16 million a month, a figure that excludes capital outlay to replace precision missiles, bombs and other munitions. The Danes' core arsenal includes GBU-49 type 500-pound bombs and 1-ton bunker killer BLU-109 warheads.
The Zlitan area, which lies 160 kilometers east of Tripoli, has seen increased fighting between rebel groups and forces loyal to the Libyan leader, Moammar Gadhafi, in recent weeks.

Gadhafi Unable to Launch Offensive: NATO

MONTREAL - Forces loyal to Libyan strongman Moammar Gadhafi are no longer able to launch a credible military offensive, the commander of NATO-led Libyan operations told AFP in an interview Aug. 11.
"The Gadhafi regime's forces continue to be weakened, both in strength and their will to fight," Canada's Lieutenant-General Charles Bouchard said, speaking from his Italy headquarters, as rebel troops made new advances.

"They are no longer able to launch a credible offensive," he added.
NATO was authorized in March by U.N. Security Council resolution 1973 to defend Libya's civilian population from attacks by Colonel Gadhafi's regime, which faced a popular revolt after 42 years in power.
As NATO-led airstrikes have helped the rebels on the ground without managing to decisively turn the tide in the conflict, Gadhafi has brought in fighters from other African countries to bolster his embattled forces.
"We're seeing lots of mercenaries, ruthless mercenaries that come from other countries and are enlisted by Gadhafi's forces to inflict extreme violence on men, women and children," Bouchard said.
"The recruiting of these mercenaries continues," he said. "There is a growing demand for their services which lends credibility to the fact that Gadhafi's forces are being affected by NATO's actions as well as defections of generals, policemen and even politicians."
The rebels, meanwhile, have treaded water since scoring early victories that led to their control of Cyrenaica in the west, and enclaves in Tripoli.
Today, there's "activity" on three fronts, in Brega in the east, and in Misrata and Jebel Nefoussa in the west. Gadhafi forces are "shooting blindly on civilians," Bouchard said.
"On the three fronts, we're seeing changes as anti-Gadhafi forces march forward to stop the attacks on the population," he added.
Gadhafi's regime this week accused NATO airstrikes on the village of Majer of killing 85 people, including women and children, south of the disputed city of Zliten.
"I can assure you that the target was a legitimate one that contained mercenaries, a command centre and 4x4 vehicles modified with automatic weapons, rocket launchers or mortars," Bouchard said.
"I cannot believe that 85 civilians were present when we struck in the wee hours of the morning and given our intelligence" on the target, he added.
"I can assure you that there wasn't 85 civilians present, but I cannot assure you that there were none at all."
"Frankly, I cannot say if there were any civilian deaths or how many," said the general, who accused Gadhafi forces of often leaving already dead corpses at military sites after they have been leveled by NATO airstrikes to make the bombings appear like blunders.
The NATO mission is due to wrap up in September unless it is extended by states participating in it, including Britain, Canada, France, Italy and the United States. Their governments are under increasing fiscal pressure to pull back.
And if the mission "Unified Protector" is not renewed? "It's just speculation," said Bouchard. "My goal is to bring this conflict to an end before the mission is over."

Denmark Extends Libya Mission

COPENHAGEN - Denmark decided Aug. 11 to extend its participation in NATO operations in Libya for three months and to allow the rebel National Transitional Council to send envoys to Copenhagen.
Denmark's multi-party Libya contact group announced at a news conference the Scandinavian country's six F-16 fighter jets would continue participating in NATO bombing missions over Libya for another three-month renewable period after the current one expires later this month.

"There is a broad agreement that the strategy we have chosen is the right one," Danish Foreign Minister Lene Espersen told AFP after the news conference.
She insisted that Denmark's participation in the NATO operations was creating a possibility for Libya to become a free and democratic society.
"But the pressure must remain on (Libyan leader Moammar) Gadhafi, so we will maintain our strategy, but adjust it so that it fits the developments of the past couple of months," she said, adding there were no plans to pull the Danish fighters out of Libya any time soon.
"We agree that Denmark must be patient and steadfast. We will continue both the military pressure on Gadhafi and our political efforts to find a political solution to the problems in Libya," Espersen told AFP.
The foreign minister added that Denmark was prepared to welcome envoys from the NTC as representatives of their country, after Copenhagen on Aug. 9 declared the two remaining Libyan diplomats appointed by the Gadhafi regime persona non grata.
"We have chosen to say that we are positively inclined to letting the National Transitional Council have a political representative in Denmark in order to have a partner for political dialogue so we are also able to ensure they move along the road of democracy," Espersen said.
She stressed the TNC had not yet applied for such a post, and it was not yet clear whether such a representative would be able to move into Libya's now empty embassy.
Other parties said they supported the strategy.
"I hope we soon see an end-date (for military operations), but that depends on when Gadhafi leaves the scene," Mogens Lykketoft, the foreign policy spokesman of the main opposition Social Democrats, told AFP.
The Socialist People's Party also agreed with the decision, and the party's defense spokesman Holger Nielsen told AFP that if the left-leaning opposition wins general elections - set to be held in Denmark no later than November - it would not shift the strategy.
"We have broad consensus among most political parties in parliament about this military mission, so I do not see any changes in the Danish policy towards Libya," he said.

Andrew Yang

Taiwan's Deputy Defense Minister

Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense (MND) continues to maintain a strong deterrence in the face of a growing Chinese military threat. The island state's future is uncertain as the U.S. and China grow closer and Washington wavers on the sale of new F-16 fighter jets. This makes Nien-Dzu "Andrew" Yang's role as the MND's policy coordinator a challenge.

Andrew Yang is Taiwan's deputy defense minister. (Patrick Lin / AFP via Getty Images)

The stakes are high. Should China capture or confederate Taiwan, the potential is great for destabilizing the region. China, which continues to threaten to impose unification by force, has more than 1,400 short-range ballistic missiles aimed at Taiwan. The MND, meanwhile, faces budget constraints as it struggles to implement an all-volunteer force, begin an expensive streamlining program, pay for $16 billion in new U.S. arms released since 2007, and convince Washington to sell it F-16s and submarines. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced recently the decision would be made by Oct. 1.
Adding to the confusion, since 2008, China and Taiwan have signed historic economic agreements that are moving them closer together. Taiwan has just opened the floodgates for mainland Chinese visitors, prompting fears of an increase in espionage and agents of influence here.
Yang is a former secretary-general of the Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies and adviser to the Mainland Affairs Council, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the MND.

Q. China now has unprecedented influence over the U.S. with its economic, diplomatic and military muscle. How can Taiwan expect the U.S. to continue to defend Taiwan?

A. We are certainly aware that Beijing is a very important global and regional power and has close mutual interests with the United States. High-level visits are becoming regular in intensity. Beijing is increasing their influence over Washington decision-making not only over Taiwan, but over other important regional and global issues.
We firmly believe that Washington still plays great influence in Asia and has repeatedly made strong commitments to regional security. Taiwan is a very important factor contributing to the multilateral effort to preserve peace and stability in this region. So I do not think the United States will tip over to Beijing's side and ignore its vested interest in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly Taiwan. The U.S. has repeatedly emphasized they will continue to honor the Taiwan Relations Act and provide adequate and necessary articles to enhance our self-defense.

Q. How has the U.S. reacted to a reduction of tension between China and Taiwan since Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou's 2008 election?

A. The U.S. fully supports President Ma's strategy and approaches. They consider his approach as a way to de-escalate tensions and find opportunities to enhance peace dividends and to reduce misunderstanding and miscalculation. This has, in a way, made Beijing less belligerent toward Taiwan.

Q. Has China reduced the military threat against Taiwan, or the number of missiles aimed at Taiwan?

A. No, they have not done anything yet. There has been nothing from Beijing's top leadership on the issue. I think Beijing considers that both sides can create a new kind of status quo based on engagement. It doesn't mean that Beijing is reducing its military preparations over Taiwan, but they have to think twice in terms of their approach.
There are more mutual interests involved, not just between Taiwan and mainland China, but also multilateral interests in this region, which Beijing needs to continue to develop its economy and stabilize its society. So Beijing has to make some kind of calculation here - whether to rock the boat for the sake of pursuing Beijing's unification policy, either by force or by other means; or work side-by-side with Taiwan and regional partners to create a more stable, peaceful and prosperous environment.

Q. As the U.S. becomes economically weaker and defense budgets are slashed, many in China see the U.S. as a declining superpower. Will this encourage Chinese adventurism?

A. If you look at Chinese President Hu Jintao's visit to Washington earlier this year, it seems to me that from the policymaker's point of view, they don't look at each other as enemies. That's number one. They are still reaching out to each other to the best of their ability to create a win-win situation. From Chinese leaders' comments, they are not taking advantage of U.S. weakness to advance Chinese strategic or national interests in this region. They still emphasize that China should work along with the U.S. to resolve many problems around the world.

Q. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has said the U.S. will decide about the sale of 66 F-16C/D fighters by Oct. 1. What do you think Beijing's reaction will be if the U.S. releases new F-16s to Taiwan? China calls it a "red line."

A. They will be extremely unpleasant and upset, as they always are. They've been calling everything a red line for 30 years, ever since 1979, when the U.S. switched relations from Taipei to Beijing.
If we don't get the F-16C/Ds to replace our vintage fighters, then we lose our leverage and immediately face the challenge of fulfilling our responsibility of preserving peace and stability in the region. Washington sometimes does not get the right picture of Taiwan's responsibility. That is part of the reason we want new fighters. Otherwise, the U.S. has to send its own military to replace our daily patrols in the region.
China has already sent a strong warning to Washington that if such a decision is adopted, then U.S.-China relations will be damaged. Cutting off regular military exchanges is one way to show Beijing's animosity. But if we look at previous experiences, they will be downgraded for a while, but they have strong mutual interests binding each other together. So they have to make a decision on what will be the next step.

Q. Economic sanctions?

A. I don't think Beijing will take drastic economic actions against the U.S., because they have a lot of investments, including huge foreign reserves in U.S. banks. If the U.S. economy suffers, Beijing suffers.

Q. The U.S. offered Taiwan eight submarines in 2001, but the deal has been stalled. What's the status?

A. It's a long-delayed decision by the U.S. We are constantly urging them to pay attention to our concerns because we consider submarines to be important to our self-defense.

Q. What would happen if China took control of Taiwan and placed bases here?

A. It opens the door for Chinese military and power projection not only into the East China Sea, but also into the South China Sea. Taiwan would become an important hub and stepping stone for China to exert and expand its presence in the South China Sea, which is certainly not in the U.S. interest. It would immediately challenge U.S. strategic calculations and its security umbrella in the Asia-Pacific region. If Taiwan becomes part of China in terms of political integration in the future, then immediately the United States will lose a vital interest in this part of the world.

Q. There has been talk about beefing up Taiwan's military presence on Taiping Island in the South China Sea.

A. We are not ruling out our options. But the current decision adopted by the National Security Council and the president is to improve and reinforce the Coast Guard's capability on the island. So the Marines are training the Coast Guard members stationed on the island. We are also evaluating whether they can actually perform the assigned responsibilities and duties to protect the island and conduct judicial patrol over the waters.
We will never allow China to step onto the island. It is part of our territory, under our management. There is no room for compromise.

Q. Is the primary Chinese military threat amphibious invasion or missile bombardment?

A. It's a combination. They have all sorts of options at hand.
Of course, Beijing will use the minimum military option to achieve maximum political objectives. Our way of defending ourselves is to make sure they pay a high price and cannot succeed in achieving their political objectives. We have to make sure that if Beijing launches missiles against Taiwan, they cannot immediately compromise our defense and force Taiwan to come to terms with Beijing.

Q. Is the streamlining program still on schedule? You are going from conscription to an all-volunteer military force.

A. It is very much on schedule. By law, we have to implement this streamlining process starting in January. We have to implement the all-volunteer program.
It's an incremental process. We are not targeting any particular date to complete this transformation. Certainly, they are predicated on continuous sufficient resource allocation and support from the legislature.

Q. Do you worry about Beijing becoming more nationalistic, more aggressive?

A. It is always a major concern. China is a dynamic society. You have many forces inside China. People only talk about the good side of Chinese development, but not many pay great attention to the challenges and the difficulties.
They are facing increasing domestic problems. We hope the Chinese government can have better management of those problems, but you never know. We worry about succession. Beijing is going to have a top leadership change next year, so who will be the official leader? What does he think about Taiwan? What will be his priorities? We don't want to wake up to a renegade in charge of China who fires missiles over the Taiwan Strait.

Q. How good is Taiwan's intelligence inside China?

A. We are collecting good stuff, at least from our neighborhood. We also share our intelligence during regular meetings with the United States and others. We are much better off than our counterparts, like Japan and the U.S. The U.S. has its satellite images, but we have our human intelligence, and our analysts are resourceful. We have analysts who have spent 30 years watching China.

Ministry Profile

Established as the Ministry of War in 1912 in China; became the Ministry of National Defense in 1946. Moved to Taiwan in 1949 at the end of the Chinese Civil War.
Defense budget:
■ $10.2 billion for 2011
■ $11.2 billion projected for 2012
Troop strength:
■ 275,000 currently
■ 215,000 projected for 2014