North Korea Completes Missile Launch Tower

SEOUL - Recent satellite images show that North Korea has completed a launch tower at its new missile base, a key step in efforts to test a missile which could eventually reach the United States, experts say.
An image taken on Jan. 10 of the Tongchang-ri base on the west coast shows a moveable launch pad and swing arms along with the tower.

It was disclosed by VOA News this week and was posted on the website of U.S. defense information group GlobalSecurity.org, prompting a senior U.S. military commander to describe the development as a "major concern."
The new base is seen as a key step in the North's quest for an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that could possibly strike the United States, GlobalSecurity.org said.
It is bigger and more advanced than the Musudan-ri base on the east coast, which the North used to launch long-range missiles in 1998, 2006 and 2009.
The North has enough nuclear material for an estimated six to eight weapons but it is unclear whether it has the technology to create a nuclear warhead for a missile.
U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates warned last month that North Korea could have missiles within five years that would directly threaten the United States.
"This is a major concern of ours," Adm. Robert Willard, head of the 300,000-troop U.S. Pacific Command, said of North Korea's missile program.
"When you package that together with the provocative actions that we saw in 2010, and the complexities of succession that are currently ongoing in North Korea, it should concern us all," Willard said at the Asia Society.
But Willard played down speculation of an imminent missile launch by North Korea. There are "no signs that I'm aware of that they're preparing for near-term missile tests," Willard said.
Work at Tongchang-ri has been monitored for more than two years and South Korean officials said in October 2009 that construction was near completion.
But the latest images were the first to show a launch tower.
Daniel Pinkston, a Seoul-based analyst with the International Crisis Group, said Tongchang-ri clearly had more facilities to support a missile development program than the relatively "primitive" Musudan-ri.
"It demonstrates their commitment to an ICBM program," he told AFP, "considering the cost of the program, the small size of their economy and their technical capabilities.
"If they are going to dedicate such resources, it's a sign they are serious about using the launch base," Pinkston said, adding that a test-launch is possible this year.
The North's first long-range test in 1998 sent a Taepodong-1 missile over Japan but failed to put a satellite in orbit. A Taepodong-2 exploded after 40 seconds after launch in 2006.
In April 2009, another Taepodong-2 travelled some 3,200 km (1,984 miles) to land in the Pacific.
That launch, and a nuclear test a month later, brought fresh UN sanctions including a ban on missile and nuclear-related activity.
Inter-Korean relations are icy after two deadly border incidents last year blamed on Pyongyang. Six-party nuclear disarmament talks have been stalled since December 2008 and Washington is resisting appeals for direct dialogue.
A long-range missile program could be used as a bargaining chip to extract U.S. concessions.
Pinkston said a successful launch would also have huge domestic propaganda value and boost the prestige of Kim Jong-Un, youngest son and heir apparent to leader Kim Jong-Il.
Any nuclear strike capability by the North could also be perceived as undermining the U.S. commitment to come to the aid of its regional allies South Korea and Japan, he added.

Israel Wary Of Iran Naval Power Play: Analysts

JERUSALEM - Israel is warily watching Iranian plans to station two warships in the Mediterranean, fearing the ploy is an attempt by Tehran to raise tensions between the arch foes, analysts said on Feb. 17.
The two ships, from Iran's 12th Flotilla, were expected to have crossed the Suez Canal into the Mediterranean in recent days, but were apparently held up after being denied permission to use the waterway.

Most concede that the Iranian vessels, a frigate and a support vessel, do not pose a direct threat to the Jewish state, but by brazenly sailing into Israel's home waters, they are staking Iran's claim to be a regional power.
In a worst-case scenario, analysts warned, the move could lead to the first-ever direct clash between Iranian and Israel forces, escalating a conflict that has, until now, been fought through Iran's proxies in Lebanon and Gaza.
On Feb. 16, Israel's hardline Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman called the move a "provocation" and said the Jewish state would not be able to ignore it for long.
Analysts said Iran appeared to be trying to boost its standing as a major force in the region.
"Iran is sending a political message, asserting its presence and power in the eastern Mediterranean, where it has allies in Syria, Lebanon and Hezbollah," said Ephraim Inbar, a professor of political science at Bar Ilan University.
The vessels are supposed to heading for a Syrian port, where they are due to be stationed for up to a year, Iranian officials said.
The Kharg is a 33,000-ton refueling and support vessel, and the Alvand is a 1,500-ton light patrol frigate, and both are British built, Iran's official Fars news agency said, quoting naval commanders.
The Kharg has a crew of 250 and can carry three helicopters, while the Alvand is armed with torpedoes and anti-ship missiles.
According to Fars, the 12th Flotilla is normally assigned to protect Iranian merchant vessels in the Gulf of Aden, an area plagued by Somali pirates.
"The Iranians are raising the stakes in the poker game against the West, and this time they are doing it vis-a-vis Israel in the Mediterranean theatre," wrote analyst Alex Fishman in the mass-selling Yediot Aharonot newspaper.
Fishman said their presence off the Israeli coast could lead to direct clashes, particularly if they tried to intervene in attempts by activists to breach Israel's naval blockade off the Gaza Strip, or tried to approach Israeli patrols off the Lebanese coast.
"From here on, scenarios could develop that are liable to cause a direct clash between Iran and Israel. This will no longer be with proxies on the Lebanese and Gaza borders, but directly with Iranian forces," he wrote.
Israel sees Tehran as its principal threat after repeated predictions by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of the Jewish state's demise. Israel also accuses Iran of arming and funding Lebanon's Hezbollah militia and Gaza's Hamas rulers.
Israel, which has the Middle East's sole if undeclared nuclear arsenal, suspects Iran of trying to develop atomic weapons under cover of a civilian nuclear program.
Tehran denies that charge and has accused Israel of trying to sabotage its civilian nuclear program and kill its nuclear scientists.
For now, the Iranian ships are still awaiting permission to transit the Suez Canal.
Egyptian and Iranian officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said the ships had requested permission to enter the canal, but had been denied for technical reasons connected to the chaos caused by the political unrest that brought down President Hosni Mubarak last week.
Under international law, Cairo cannot bar the Iranian vessels unless the two countries are officially at war, but Egypt, which has its own tense past with Iran, is also unlikely to want Iranian war ships patrolling in its sphere of influence.
If the ships were to pass through, it would be the first time Iranian naval vessels have done so since the 1979 Iranian revolution, which led to the severing of full diplomatic ties with Egypt.
Others sought to down play the military significance of the move, but said it was still a bold political statement from Tehran.
"The visit poses as no real threat either to Israel or to the moderate Arab regimes," wrote leading analyst Dan Margalit in the Israel Hayom newspaper, a pro-government free sheet.
Nevertheless, this "should not prompt one to underestimate the long-term strategic objectives of the Iranian regime, which seeks to turn Iran into a regional superpower," he wrote.

USAF to Train on New F-35 Before Year's End

The U.S. Air Force will begin training on new fifth-generation F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) aircraft before the end of the year, the program's top official said.

The U.S. Air Force will begin training on new F-35 Joint Strike Fighters at Eglin Air Force Base before year's end, according to the program's top official. (Senior Aiman Julianne Showalter / U.S. Air Force)

The 33rd Fighter Wing at Eglin Air Force Base, Fla., will take delivery of 20 F-35A-model conventional take-off variant aircraft with Block 1 training software after a brief informal operational evaluation so that instructor pilots can begin their training, said Vice Adm. Dave Venlet, the new JSF program executive officer.

"We're going to put them in the hands of the fleet and the Air Force is going to be operating [Conventional take-off and landing aircraft] in training at Eglin before the year ends," Venlet told a luncheon hosted by the National Aeronautic Association.
However, because it is unusual for an aircraft to be delivered to line pilots before formal operational testing is complete, Venlet said that the program will conduct an abbreviated informal test prior to handing over the new fighters.
"It's not a full operational test, it doesn't resolve any measures of effectiveness," he said.
However, it will provide an independent evaluation to the services as to how well the new fighter performs in the real world.
"It will inform [Air Education and Training Command]," Venlet said, referring to the Air Force's training arm.
Other than the "operational assessment" of the Air Force F-35 version, Venlet said he hopes to complete sea-trials with the Marine Corps' vertical-landing F-35B model in the fall. That variant has made 30 vertical landings this year, which is good progress towards taking the plane out to sea, he said.
Additionally, the F-35C version for the U.S. Navy's carrier fleet will complete "static structural tests" this year to verify the strength of its airframe. Carrier-borne aircraft require especially robust structures to withstand the stress of arrested landings onboard a ship.
One area where there is a problem is the aircraft's helmet-mounted display, Venlet said. While the helmet is safe to fly, and test pilots fly with the equipment everyday, the images are jittery, he explained. However, the problem is especially pronounced with the night-vision system, Venlet said. The F-35 uses a revolutionary apparatus called the Distributed Aperture System where images from six infrared cameras mounted around the aircraft's fuselage are displayed in the pilot's visor.
Because pilots have to train with the helmet-mounted display, the program is looking at short-term alternatives. One alternative could be to display the imagery on the aircraft's head-down flat-panel displays, Venlet said. Early training flights could use night-vision goggle similar to current aircraft, he added. However, those are not satisfactory solutions long-term, Venlet said. "We're not giving up on the requirement," he declared.
Venlet also said that developmental testing is now slated to end in the first quarter of fiscal year 2016 when flight sciences testing of the A-model and C-model jets, along with the mission systems testing for the variants, will be complete. The F-35B, which has an especially challenging flight envelope to clear due to its unique vertical-landing capability, will lag behind until the fourth quarter of that year. The formal operational testing plan is being reviewed, Venlet said, in order to better integrate it with the flight test plan.
Overall, the Air Force requirement is holding steady at 1763 jets while the Navy and Marine Corps are still planning on buying 680 planes, Venlet said.

Ten Ships in U.S. Navy's Budget Request

Few surprises were evident in the U.S. Navy's 2012 budget request made public Feb. 14. Overall spending remains nearly the same in fiscal 2012 as the previous year, although the service is asking for modest increases in the number of ships and aircraft.
The Department of the Navy, which includes the Navy and Marine Corps, is asking for $161 billion in its baseline budget request, plus another $15 billion for war funding. The baseline request is $800 million over the 2011 request, while the department asked for $3.5 billion more in 2011 war funding.

The 2012 request asks for $45.8 billion in procurement spending, down from $46.6 billion a year ago. The Navy wants $46.6 billion in personnel costs, up from $45.1 billion in 2011; $47.9 billion in operations and maintenance as against $46.2 billion last year; $18 billion in research and development compared with $17.7 billion in 2011; and $3.1 billion in infrastructure costs, down from $5 billion.
Two ships were added to the 2012 request compared with plans a year ago. As announced in late December, an extra Littoral Combat Ship is being requested in 2012, for a total of four ships. An additional mobile landing platform (MLP) ship is now in the 2012 request, a change from the previous plan to buy the three ships in alternate years beginning in 2011. The new scheme to procure the ships in consecutive years allows shipbuilder National Steel and Shipbuilding in San Diego, Calif., to take advantage of efficiencies by accomplishing more work at once.
Two more Virginia-class SSN 774 nuclear attack submarines, an Arleigh Burke-class DDG 51 destroyer, a San Antonio-class LPD 17 amphibious ship, and a joint high-speed vessel (JHSV) round out the 2012 shipbuilding request.
An additional JHSV is being requested for the U.S. Army, for a total of 11 ships in the Pentagon's shipbuilding program.
Aircraft procurement showed a number of changes, many due to Defense Secretary Robert Gates' decision announced Jan. 6 to restructure the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) program, pushing back procurement of the F-35B vertical or short take-off or landing (VSTOL) version for the Marine Corps.
That decision, which put the F-35B on a two-year "probation" period, included slashing the 2011 request from 13 aircraft to three.
For 2012, the Navy reduced its previously planned buy of 14 F-35Bs to just six - the minimum, Gates said, to maintain the Lockheed Martin production line.
Across the next six years, the Navy reduced its total F-35B buy from 115 aircraft to 50, and reduced the number of F-35C carrier-based JSF variants from 74 to 72.
To compensate, the number of Boeing F/A-18 E and F Super Hornet strike fighters was increased from 1 aircraft in 2012 to 28. The total number of Es and Fs to be purchased over the next three years jumped from 26 to 67.
The procurement of EA-18G Growler electronic countermeasures aircraft from Boeing remains the same, but the buy was split, moving from 24 planned for 2012 to 12 in 2012 and another dozen in 2013.
Planned buys of the new Boeing P-8A maritime patrol aircraft also rose slightly, to 11 for 2012, up from 9, and a total of 92 aircraft through 2016, up from a previously planned 85.
Overall buys of the new T-6 joint training aircraft from Raytheon fell, from 78 aircraft over the next two years to 60.
Planned purchases of the MQ-8B Fire Scout unmanned helicopter from Northrop Grumman, however, jumped in 2012 from three to 12, and rose over the next five years from 31 to 57 aircraft.
Weapons procurement saw a number of changes, with production of the SM-2 Standard surface-to-air (SAM) missile from Raytheon coming to an end - 239 missiles eliminated through 2016 - and buys of the new SM-6 SAM dropping, from 717 missiles through 2016 to 659.
Major gains, however, were found in the AGM-114 Hellfire missile from Boeing and Lockheed Martin, jumping in 2012 from 281 to 421, and the Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System from BAE Systems, jumping 60 percent in 2012 and more than 70 percent through 2016.
Research and development expenditures for the new Ohio-class ballistic missile replacement program are ramping up, from $672 million in 2011 to $1.07 billion in 2012. Work on the new Unmanned Carrier-Launched Airborne Surveillance and Strike (UCLASS) drone - the operational successor to the Northrop Grumman's X-47B concept demonstrator that first flew Feb. 4 - is also set to begin, with a request for $121 million in 2012.
Ship and aircraft maintenance funding is taking a hit in 2012. Last year's request sought to fund 99 percent of projected ship maintenance, 100 percent for deployed aircraft squadrons and 97 percent for non-deployed squadrons. The 2012 request will fund only 94 percent of total ship and aviation depot maintenance.
The Navy plans to lower its personnel end strength in 2012 by 3,000, for a force of 325,700 uniformed personnel. Reserve strength is to be reduced over the next three years from today's 66,200 to 63,300 in 2014.
Marine Corps end strength will remain at just over 202,000 through 2014, when a reduction of 15,000 will begin if forces are able to leave Afghanistan.

Few Details Released On '12 USAF Procurement

A White House overview of the 2012 defense budget request included a few details about Air Force weapons.
Proposed spending for the Advanced Extremely High Frequency (AEHF) satellites is $975 million, while the total for the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program is $9.7 billion. Cyber security was budgeted for $2.3 billion, of which the nascent U.S. Cyber Command received $119 million.

The budget request also provides money to sustain the Air Force's arsenal of Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missiles through 2030, so the bomber force can continue to fly for the "indefinite future."
The Air Force, however, loses two air operations centers in the United States and two in Europe. That money is being plowed back into more urgent priorities.

Proposed U.S. DoD Budget: $670.6B

The Pentagon has proposed a $670.6 billion operating budget for fiscal year 2012, which is more than $38 billion less than it asked Congress for last year, according to federal spending documents released this morning.

The DoD request includes a $553 billion base budget and a $117.6 billion overseas contingency operations portion that would go directly toward the war in Afghanistan. (U.S. Air Force)

The request includes a $553 billion base budget and a $117.6 billion overseas contingency operations portion that would go directly toward fighting in Afghanistan, according to an overview of the proposal posted Feb. 14 on the White House Office of Management and Budget website.

As Defense Secretary Robert Gates announced in January, the budget proposal shifts $100 billion of expected savings over the next five years to "high-priority areas such as the development or purchase of unmanned intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance assets; more ships; a new ground combat vehicle; the Advanced Extremely High Frequency satellite; and the stealthy F-35 Joint Strike Fighter," the document said.
The budget proposal includes $113 billion for procurement; $75.3 billion for research, development, test and evaluation (RDT&E); $204.4 billion for operations and maintenance' $13.1 billion for military construction' $142.8 billion for personnel; $1.7 billion for family housing; and $2.7 billion in revolving management funds.
DoD's 2010 budget, which included two war supplemental spending bills, totaled about $693 billion. For 2011, the Pentagon proposed a $708 billion budget, including war funding, but Congress has yet to pass an appropriations measure. Instead, DoD has been operating on a continuing resolution, which is set to expire the first week of March.
The Pentagon's 2012 RDT&E request is about $800 million less than the still-looming 2011 request. Procurements accounts rose slightly over 2011.
This documents released by the White House this morning did not include a service-by-service breakdown.
As previously announced in January, the 2012 request recommends terminating several programs that are "experiencing significant development problems, unsustainable cost growth, or are not suited for today's security challenges," according to the documents. The list includes the Marine Corps Expeditionary Fighting Vehicle, the procurement of the Army Surface Launched Medium Range Air-to-Air Missile air defense system and the Navy's SM-2 Block IIIB surface-to-air missile.
"The capabilities that were to be provided by these niche systems will be largely met through the modernization and upgrade of existing systems at a fraction of the cost," the document said. "The total cost savings that will be realized from these terminations will exceed $13 billion."

Thales Issues 2010 Profit Warning

PARIS - French systems company Thales issued Feb. 14 a profit warning on its 2010 preliminary financial results, which are expected to show an operating loss of nearly 100 million euros ($135 million), due to provisions of more than 700 million euros for program overruns.
"EBIT (earnings before interest and tax) should be close to -100 million euros, due to additional charges and provisions exceeding 700 million euros booked on the contracts and activities mentioned below," according to a company statement.

The fresh provisions come on top of the 500 million euros of charges booked for 2009, making a total of 1.2 billion euros over the two years.
Thales set a target of 5 percent operating profit margin for 2011, rising to 6 percent in 2012. That compared to a net loss of 128 million euros in 2009, and a sharply lower operating profit of 151 million euros from 877 million euros in the previous year.
From 2005 to 2008, Thales's operating profit margin was between 5 and 7 percent, which included a capitalization of a significant amount of its research and development (R&D) spending, senior vice president Patrice Durand.
The present financial reporting excludes R&D from the profit line.
The 700 million euros of provisions included Thales' work on the Meltem Turkish maritime patrol aircraft program, the flight management system (FMS) for the A400M military airlifter, a ticketing contract for Denmark, and the Lorads III air traffic management contract for Singapore, Thales executive chairman Luc Vigneron told journalists.
The provisions were in part made possible by an agreement in principle with the Turkish government reached in September on the Meltem program, which gave Thales a "clear vision of the remaining costs," Vigneron said.
Thales is also in contract negotiations with Airbus in which the systems company hopes to get extra funding for its work on the flight management system for the A400M, Vigneron said. If Thales succeeds in the commercial negotiations, that might allow a claw back of some of the provisions on the A400M. Thales also supplies avionics and cockpit equipment on the A400M.
Vigneron declined to break down the provisions allotted to each of the programs. "This is commercially sensitive information," he said.
Thales engineers had worked intensively last year to clarify the work that needed to be done to deliver the Airbus A400M FMS to specification, he said.
"These recent developments significantly enhance the visibility on the execution conditions of these contracts and allow to remove the main operational uncertainties and better assess the estimates of their cost at completion and associated risks," the company said.
The detailed program analyses led Thales to take a "more prudent vision than we had before," Vigneron said. The programs were ones which dated before 2009 when Vigneron was made executive chairman of the company.
Thales has cut jobs in Australia, Britain and Spain as part of its reorganization, Vigneron said. The figures on the job losses were undisclosed for the time being, and come on top of an announced plan to cut 1,500 posts in France.
Sales for 2010 were forecast to rise two percent to 13.1 billion euros, due mainly to favorable foreign exchange effects, while orders worth 13.1 billion euros were booked, slightly down from 13.93 billion in 2009. Restructuring charges for 2011 were estimated at 1.5 percent of sales, while those for 2012 were forecast at 1 percent.
Net cash for 2010 stood at 191 million euros, up from a negative figure of 91 million a year ago. Free cash flow totaled 271 million euros in 2010.
Vigneron maintain the target for the Probasis restructuring program which was expected to yield 1.3 billion euros of cost cuts by 2014. Cuts in general overheads were ahead of target but the savings from tighter program management, dubbed "non-quality costs," were slower in coming, he said.