How Russia Rebuilt Its Military Force and Surprised the West: Pentagon Insights

 

In March, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin detailed the extensive costs Russia has incurred from its invasion of Ukraine: over 315,000 troops killed or wounded, more than $211 billion spent, and 20 ships damaged or sunk in the Black Sea. Speaking at Ramstein Air Base in Germany, Austin emphasized the heavy toll on Russia due to President Vladimir Putin's ambitions.

However, by April, Austin's perspective had shifted. At a news conference, he and Gen. CQ Brown, the top U.S. military officer, acknowledged Russia's unexpected recovery. Austin noted that Russia had significantly increased its production, with its defense industry closely aligned with state directives, allowing rapid ramp-ups. Gen. Brown remarked that Russia had "aggressively reconstituted its military force."

This evolving view of Russia's military capabilities suggests a faster recovery than anticipated by the U.S. Initially, experts estimated that Russia's reconstitution of its military, especially its high-end equipment, would take five to ten years. U.S. Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines and other officials shared this long-term outlook in early 2023.

Yet, recent observations indicate that Russia's military has rebounded to pre-invasion levels. Gen. Christopher Cavoli, the top U.S. military officer in Europe, highlighted that despite some gaps, Russia's overall military capacity remains significant, with intentions to further expand.

Several factors have contributed to this rapid recovery:

1. Resilient Defense Industry: Russia has nearly tripled its defense budget, spending between $130 billion and $140 billion in 2024, equivalent to a substantial share of its GDP. This increased spending has boosted salaries and attracted more workers to the defense sector, with official figures showing a 20% rise in defense industry employment during the war. This funding has also facilitated the procurement of military hardware, doubling the budget share allocated for equipment.

2. Sanction Evasion: Despite a wide range of sanctions from the U.S. and Europe, Russia has managed to reroute its supply lines through allies like China. Trade between Russia and China hit an all-time high, with Chinese companies supplying critical components for Russian weapon production.

3. Support from Allies: Other U.S. adversaries, such as North Korea and Iran, have provided direct military aid to Russia. North Korea has supplied millions of artillery rounds, and Iran has sent numerous drones, which Russia has used extensively against Ukraine.

Russia's military growth raises concerns about sustainability. The U.K.'s Adm. Tony Radakin pointed out that while Russia is making progress, it relies heavily on Soviet-era inventories and struggles to train new recruits effectively. Despite substantial casualties, Russia continues to launch offensives, raising questions about how long it can maintain such operations.

Russia's reconstitution has involved refurbishing old equipment and leveraging partnerships with countries like Belarus and North Korea. However, the sustainability of these efforts remains uncertain, with varying estimates of Russia's actual production capabilities.

As both Russia and Ukraine face challenges in sustaining their military operations, the broader implications for NATO and global security continue to evolve. While Russia's recent advancements are significant, experts like Radakin believe that it will take about a decade for Russia to pose a serious threat to NATO again.