Can Russia's Navy Achieve its Goal of 50 New Ships in 2024?

 

The Russian Navy is projected to receive around 50 ships of various classes this year, a significant increase from the 32 delivered last year, as stated by the deputy minister of industry and trade. This announcement comes amid ongoing military actions in Ukraine, where Ukrainian forces have damaged or destroyed several Russian naval vessels.

In a June 9 interview with state-owned Zvezda TV, Deputy Minister Viktor Yevtukhov shared this forecast. Over the past decade, the Ministry of Industry and Trade reports that the Navy has received 40 surface ships and 24 submarines.

In 2023, the Navy received three submarines: the Borei-A-class Emperor Alexander III, the Yasen-class Krasnoyarsk, and the Kilo-class Mozhaysk. Additionally, the Navy acquired seven surface ships: the frigate Admiral Golovko, corvettes Merkury and Rezkiy, missile ships Cyclone and Naro-Fominsk, the minesweeper Lev Chernavin, and the refurbished frigate Neustrashimy.

For this year, the Navy is expected to receive four submarines and 12 surface ships, along with a variety of support vessels such as tug boats, bulk carriers, training vessels, hydrographic vessels, rescue ships, supply vessels, and other small boats, according to Pavel Luzin from the Washington-based Center for European Policy Analysis.

Yevtukhov attributed the anticipated delivery surge to successful efforts in finding replacements for components blocked by international sanctions. Sergey Smyslov, an independent analyst with experience in Russia’s defense sector, noted that domestic organizations are now producing these substitute components. While these replacements may not be of the highest quality and require additional development time, they meet the minimum necessary requirements.

However, Luzin pointed out that using outdated or low-quality technology affects the reliability of the final products. Despite this, a source in Russia’s naval industry mentioned that the Defence Ministry is generally satisfied with submarine construction but highlighted persistent issues with surface ship production, including frequent delivery delays.

Emma Rayman, a politician from St. Petersburg, cited financial constraints as a major problem affecting the speed and scale of naval construction. For instance, the Severnaya Verf shipyard's transfer of the frigate Admiral Isakov, originally scheduled for 2022, is now delayed to December 2025. Similarly, the corvette Provorny, initially expected by the end of 2022, is now slated for 2025 due to fire damage. Two Steregushchiy-class corvettes expected in 2018 saw only one delivered in 2023.

Other shipyards have also faced setbacks. Admiralty Shipyards, expected to deliver a patrol ship in 2020, now plans to complete it this year. Yantar Shipyard’s delivery of the large landing ships Vladimir Andreev and Vasily Trushin, initially set for 2023-2024, has been postponed to 2025-2026. Vostochnaya Shipyard’s construction of two Karakurt-class corvettes and a small tanker has been taken over by Amur Shipbuilding Plant due to financial issues.

Rayman and Luzin both noted a shortage of engineers and specialists in the domestic shipbuilding industry, further hindering construction efforts and leaving a lack of personnel to crew the ships.