Taiwan Reels From Spy Arrest

TAIPEI - Taiwan military officials are still reeling from the late-January arrest of a one-star army general on accusations of spying for China, the worst espionage scandal in Taiwan's history.
Gen. Lo Hsien-che, who ran the communications, electronics and information division of Army Command Headquarters, stands accused of compromising the Po Sheng (Broad Victory) C4I program. Po Sheng includes a fiber-optic communication cable network and procedures for sharing information with U.S. Pacific Command.

During Lo's 2002-05 stint as defense attaché in Thailand, he was allegedly recruited by a mainland Chinese agent in 2004.
Sources in the Ministry of National Defense (MND) indicated that an investigation into Lo began in October. He was arrested in his home Jan. 25.
MND officials announced his arrest Feb. 8, and said a damage assessment team is looking into how much Lo may have given China.
U.S. officials are pressuring Taiwan to be more transparent about the damage allegedly caused by Lo. The consequences could include losing the Pentagon's confidence in Taiwan's ability to protect U.S. defense technologies sold to the self-rule island. Taiwan is pushing Washington hard for the release of new F-16 fighter aircraft and is awaiting delivery of Patriot PAC-3 air defense missile systems and P-3C Orion maritime patrol aircraft. All are technologies China is anxious to learn more about.
One former Taiwan defense attaché said the MND is unlikely to dig too deeply. There's a long tradition of "making a big issue small" (da shi hua xiao) in Taiwan's military bureaucracy, the former attaché said.
"Even if the top leader asks whoever is in charge of the investigation to be completely honest, from the second level down, people will most likely try to make it sound less serious," he said.
He said the MND must begin polygraphing returning attachés or risk further problems.
A MND official said the level of damage is uncertain and accused local media outlets of making up quotes and information to sensationalize the Lo case.
What is certain is the Lo case is one of several arrests over the past five years of Taiwan and U.S. officials involved in the Po Sheng program.
These include the 2008 arrest and subsequent conviction of Gregg Bergersen, director of the Pentagon's C4ISR program for Taiwan at the Defense Security Cooperation Agency. Bergersen was part of the Kuo Tai-shen spy ring that included James Fondren, another Pentagon official working on Taiwan issues. They are now in U.S. federal prisons.
In November, a Taiwan colonel in Taiwan's Military Intelligence Bureau (MIB) was arrested and charged with supplying the names of MIB agents to China.

Top US Officer In Gulf To Reassure Allies

MUSCAT - The United States' top military officer on Monday made a discreet visit to Oman which guards the Strait of Hormuz opposite Iran's coast as Pentagon strategists monitor the strategic and vital waterway.
Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, also visited Bahrain, home to Washington's Fifth Fleet, as anti-regime protests gathered steam in the kingdom.

The key U.S. ally has been rocked by anti-regime protests since Feb. 14 as thousands of mainly Shiite protesters demand an end to the Sunni Al-Khalifa dynasty, which has ruled Bahrain, a majority Shiite country, for over 200 years.
Mullen has been touring the Gulf since Sunday to reassure U.S. regional allies after mass revolts in the Arab world that have toppled two of Washington's allies, Tunisia's Zine El Abdine Ben Ali and Egypt's Hosni Mubarak.
Mullen has said his visits were aimed at "reaffirming, reassuring and also trying to understand where the leaderships of these countries are going, and in particular in Bahrain."
After having arrived in the Saudi capital Riyadh earlier this week, Mullen then visited Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.
He will also head to Kuwait to participate in ceremonies marking the 20th anniversary of the country's liberation in 1991 from Iraqi occupation.
In Oman, Mullen and Gen. James Mattis, commander of U.S. Central Command, in charge of the wars in Iraq and and Afghanistan, met officials whose identities were not disclosed.
The Hormuz Strait through which 40 percent of the world's oil supply passes is less than 31 miles wide, with Oman to the south and Iran to the north, and Mullen's visit underlines U.S. determination to keep it open.
Iranian commanders have repeatedly threatened to block navigation through the strait, which links the Gulf to the Indian Ocean, if the Islamic republic comes under attack.
Western powers led by the United States suspect Iran is masking a weapons drive under the guise of a civilian atomic program, a charge strongly denied by Iran.
"We've been concerned about Iranian capabilities to impede the flow of oil through the Hormuz straight for a long time," a military official traveling with Mullen told AFP.
The Iranians "certainly would have an initial impact but we do not believe they can close it down for a lengthy period of time."
t"We have very robust naval capabilities in the region, these are international waterways that they don't own and we're very committed to protect them," said the official.
In Bahrain, Mullen will visit the forces stationed in the Fifth Fleet, the major U. S. Navy base that has been in the kingdom for 63 years.
The Gulf archipelago state has been hit by protests calling on the government, headed by King Hamad's uncle Sheikh Khalifa bin Salman who is widely despised by Shiites there, to step down.
Seven people have been killed in a police crackdown on the protesters.
However, the United States has praised the monarchy for taking "positive steps" to reach out to protesters.
The U. S. Navy has also said that the demonstrations have not disrupted American operations in the kingdom.
"As far as Fifth Fleet operations, no, the demonstrations have not had any impact here - we're continuing to conduct our regular business out here," a spokesman for the Fifth Fleet told AFP on Monday.

US Army Ordered Psy-Ops On Own Lawmakers: Report

WASHINGTON - The U.S. Army ordered the illegal use of psychological operations to influence American lawmakers on the Afghanistan war, Rolling Stone magazine reported Thursday, forcing the U.S. commander there to launch an inquiry.
The article said the command of Lt. Gen. William Caldwell, in charge of training Afghan troops, pressured U.S. soldiers specializing in "psy-ops" that normally influence enemy behavior, to manipulate visiting U.S. senators and congressmen - as well as other VIPs and senior foreign officials - into supporting more money and troops for the war.

The report shook up Washington at a time of growing public dissatisfaction with America's longest war, with lawmakers urging a swift investigation of the "disturbing" charges.
Pentagon spokesman Col. David Lapan said war commander Gen. David Petraeus "is preparing to order an investigation" to determine "what actions took place and if any of them was inappropriate or illegal."
The report says a lieutenant colonel told the magazine he had been repeatedly ordered by Caldwell's staff to target senators including 2008 Republican presidential nominee John McCain, Joe Lieberman, Jack Reed, Al Franken and Carl Levin, to get Caldwell's message across.
Among those the team was told to pressure during a four-month period were Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Mike Mullen, Germany's interior minister, and the Czech ambassador to Kabul, according to members of the "information operations" (IO) team and internal documents.
And when the officer sought to bring the operation to a halt, a campaign of retaliation was launched against him, according to the magazine.
"My job in psy-ops is to play with people's heads, to get the enemy to behave the way we want them to behave," Lt. Col. Michael Holmes, leader of the IO unit, told Rolling Stone.
"I'm prohibited from doing that to our own people. When you ask me to try to use these skills on senators and congressman, you're crossing a line."
The magazine also said Caldwell's chief of staff asked Holmes how the general could secretly manipulate the U.S. lawmakers.
"How do we get these guys to give us more people?" the chief of staff demanded. "What do I have to plant inside their heads?"
Reed, a Democrat who sits on key committees with oversight over the conflict, called the charges "serious and disturbing, and they have to be fully investigated."
An inquiry will likely check whether the IO effort was in violation of U.S. law that forbids targeting U.S. nationals with such propaganda campaigns.
Both Reed and Levin, the Senate Armed Services Committee chairman, denied they had been influenced by the effort.
The report was the second scoop on the military affairs front by the music magazine in under a year.
In 2010, Michael Hastings, the same writer as of Thursday's article, wrote a withering critique of Petraeus' predecessor Gen. Stanley McChrystal and his staff, attributing blunt comments to the commander's staff which led to his ouster.
Hastings wrote that Holmes, who became the subject of an army investigation after e-mailing a military lawyer to address his discomfort with the psy-op orders on U.S. civilians, said Caldwell "seemed far more focused on the Americans and the funding stream than he was on the Afghans.
"We were there to teach and train the Afghans. But for the first four months it was all about the U.S.," he added. "Later he even started talking about targeting the NATO populations."
In response to Holmes's e-mail, military lawyer Capt. John Scott agreed with Holmes and wrote that the "IO doesn't do that," according to the report.
"[Public affairs] works on the hearts and minds of our own citizens and IO works on the hearts and minds of the citizens of other nations," Scott wrote.
"While the twain do occasionally intersect, such intersections ... should be unintentional."
In a statement to the magazine, a Caldwell spokesman "categorically denies the assertion that the command used an Information Operations Cell to influence distinguished visitors."

Boeing Wins U.S. Air Force Tanker Battle

Boeing has won the long-running battle to supply the U.S. Air Force with a new aerial refueling tanker, the service announced today.

The new U.S. Air Force tanker will be based on Boeing's 767 twin-engine widebody airliner. (Boeing)

The initial contract was a fixed-price incentive firm contract valued at over $3.5 billion for KC-X engineering and manufacturing development and the delivery of 18 aircraft, dubbed KC-46As, by 2017. The Air Force will eventually spend an estimated $30 billion to buy 179 planes.

Based on the modern Boeing 767 twin-engine widebody airliner, the new tankers will replace many Eisenhower-era KC-135 aircraft, based on the Boeing 707.
Deputy Defense Secretary William Lynn, along with DoD acquisition executive Ashton Carter, Air Force Secretary Michael Donley and Chief of Staff Gen. Norton Schwartz made the announcement during a briefing at the Pentagon this evening.
In a Feb. 24 statement, the chairman and ranking member of the House Armed Services Committee vowed "to continue the necessary oversight to ensure the evaluation was transparent and fair to each competitor."
"We look forward to receiving more information from the Air Force as we review their decision-making processes. The Seapower and Projection Forces Subcommittee will hold a hearing on this issue as soon as enough information is publicly available," said the statement by Reps. Howard P. "Buck" McKeon, R-Calif., and Adam Smith, D-Wash.
"A Boeing victory means that the company retains a 50-year franchise in being the sole supplier of aerial refueling tankers to the U.S. Air Force. It's worth tens of billions of dollars to the company and it also assures the commercial arm of EADS will not start building airliners in North America," said Loren Thompson of the Lexington Institute.
He said that Boeing's victory caught most observers off guard; an EADS victory seemed all but certain.
"The Boeing victory suggests that the Air Force was concerned about the higher cost of building and then operating an A330, which burns a ton more fuel per flight hour than the Boeing aircraft," he said.
Thompson said service officials did not consider the industrial base when making their selection.
"This is purely about the price and performance of the competing aircraft," he said.
The program is likely to be the largest award during the Obama Administration, and a source of steady work for decades.
If EADS decides to protest, the European firm may have the upper hand in a political battle, thanks to Republican control of the House of Representatives and their increased presence in the Senate, said Richard Aboulafia, an analyst at the Teal Group, Fairfax, Va. By contrast, Boeing's political power seems to be waning.
Still, he said, a lengthy battle is all but unavoidable. EADS sees the tanker contract as crucial for breaking into the U.S. military market, Aboulafia said.
Despite EADS' participation, the tanker contract does not signal that the United States is necessarily more open to foreign companies acting as prime contractors for large military contracts.
"I don't think this tells you much about the future access of foreign companies to the U.S. market," Thompson said. "This is a one-shot deal."
The analyst said there were unique factors surrounding the tanker contract.
Because the Air Force wanted a competition, industry sources said, EADS received a number of waivers for several "key performance parameters," including the ability to take off from 7,000-foot runways, fitting into existing hangars, and refueling all types of Air Force aircraft - it reportedly cannot pass fuel to Air Force V-22s. As well, the sources said, the contractor will not be required to integrate government-furnished classified hardware.
EADS and Boeing have been battling over the tanker for nearly a decade. In the early 2000s, the Air Force tried to lease 767-based tankers from Boeing under a sole-source contract, then tried to appease critics by switching to a plan to buy 80 aircraft and lease 20. But opposition to the plan, led by U.S. Senator John McCain (R-Ariz.), torpedoed the deal in November 2003.
The tanker contract was further marred with the revelation that a senior Air Force contracting official named Darleen Druyun had steered contracts at inflated prices to Boeing in exchange for employment for herself and family members. The contract was formally ended in January 2006.
In January 2007, the Air Force launched the KC-X tanker competition, drawing bids from Boeing and archrival EADS, which partnered with Northrop Grumman. In February 2008, the Northrop-EADS team won the contract with their Airbus A330-based aircraft.
The following month, however, Boeing protested, claiming the Air Force failed to evaluate the two proposals using the published criteria. That June, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) upheld the protest, which led to the cancellation of the program.
The Defense Department attempted to restart the program, but aborted the attempt because a winner could not be picked before the Bush Administration left office.
The KC-X program was restarted for a third time in September 2009 by Defense Secretary Robert Gates. Though the Air Force controls the selection process, the Office of the Secretary of Defense has been closely monitoring the process. In the new competition, military acquisition officials issued 373 requirements for the tanker, but said that the unit cost of each aircraft would be adjusted to reflect lifecycle cost over 40 years. The Air Force would also judge how effectively the aircraft would meet "warfighter effectiveness."

Amid PKK Operations, Turkish Air Force Buys Deterrence Weapons

WASHINGTON and ANKARA - The Turkish Air Force, whose main combat activity these days is the low-intensity, asymmetric battle against Kurdish separatists, sees no near-term threat of air-to-air combat. Still, its modernization efforts run largely to conventional weapons aimed at maximizing firepower and deterrence.
"Because of the PKK situation, the Air Force presently has an attack role in air-to-surface terms, and this is expected to remain in place as long as the PKK threat continues," one Ankara defense analyst said. "But in general, the Air Force strategy is designed to defend the homeland, and doesn't have a power projection agenda in its region."

Turkey's latest national security threat paper, published in 2006, portrays Iran and neighboring northern Iraq, where the separatist Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) is based, as potential threats, but says air-to-air combat is unlikely.
Greece, Turkey's NATO ally and former foe in the Aegean, also is seen as a distant but still possible threat. But the two neighbors' greatly improved ties over the past 10 years, and the fact that Greece is a member of the European Union, which Turkey hopes to join eventually, makes a sustained air conflict highly unlikely.
Turkey has a considerably strong Air Force in its region and attaches top priority to the modernization of its fighter fleets. It operates more than 210 F-16s and more than 140 older F-4Es and F-5s. Most of these aircraft already are under upgrade or modernization programs.
Under an agreement with the United States and Lockheed Martin, which leads an international consortium, Turkey plans to buy 100 F-35 Joint Strike Fighter Lightning II aircraft worth some $11 billion after 2015. As a stopgap solution, the Air Force will receive within five years 30 Lockheed Martin F-16 Block 50 fighters worth more than $1.8 billion.
Most of Turkey's existing F-16s will continue flying well into the 2030s. Fifty-two of the Air Force's F-4Es have been modernized in cooperation with Israel. But earlier plans to modernize an additional 48 F-4E fighter-bombers were dropped to buy the new F-16s.
In addition to peacetime duties, the Air Force uses its fighter aircraft to attack PKK targets on Turkish territory and, with U.S. intelligence support since December, inside northern Iraq. In the foreseeable future, the Air Force's air-to-ground operations are expected to be its main warfare activity.
"In the case of an unlikely confrontation with Iran, Turkey relies on the superiority of its Air Force," the analyst said.
The Air Force mostly meets its need for air-to-air and air-to-surface munitions from the United States through Foreign Military Sales (FMS) deals, although there are increasing efforts to buy from domestic sources.

Non-Fighter Purchases

The main threat from Iran might be ground-to-ground missiles. As a result, the Air Force is seeking to boost its surface-based air defenses.
The Turkish Air Force recently has taken delivery of I-Hawk surface-to-air missile batteries from the United States through an FMS arrangement, replacing its obsolete Nike Hercules systems. Authorization also has been given to buy medium- and high-altitude air defense systems that could also shoot down tactical ballistic missiles, suggesting an upcoming competition between U.S. Patriot-based systems and Russian S-300s or S-400s.
In what Turkish officials call the war against PKK terrorism, Ankara says it lacks advanced UAVs. The military has a few UAVs, including some leased from Israel.
The Air Force expects to receive before the end of 2008 the first of 10 Heron UAV systems from Israel, but deliveries already have been delayed for more than a year. There also are plans for some locally made UAVs for the Air Force.
The Air Force's strategic reconnaissance will get a boost when the country selects the winner in its first military observation satellite program, called Gokturk. British, German and Italian companies are vying for the contract, worth more than $250 million. The satellite should be launched in 2011 or 2012.
Turkish officials see a planned acquisition of airborne early warning and control aircraft from Boeing as a major force multiplier for the Air Force. There is more than a two-year delay in deliveries, and the systems now are expected to begin entering service in 2009 or 2010. The planes also may assume NATO-related roles.
On transport capabilities, 13 C-130 aircraft are being modernized locally, and a gap to be left by the retirement of C-160s should be filled by the arrival of A400Ms in 2009 or 2010 under a joint European program.
Turkey has 10 planes on order. However, the C-130s are going through avionics modernization only, and the Air Force may consider replacement transport aircraft in the not-too-distant future, procurement officials said.

Pakistan Targets Air Combat Needs To Protect Air Defense, C2 Early in War

TAIPEI - The Pakistan Air Force (PAF) has not seen serious air combat since the 1965 and 1971 wars with India, but the ability to defeat a massive Indian assault on its air defenses early in a war remains its primary mission.
In 1965, Pakistan successfully trumped India in air combat, but it was ill-prepared for the 1971 conflict in which India dominated the skies. Fears of losing another war, much less a nuclear war, are unthinkable, and the PAF is modernizing its air interdiction, air surveillance and reconnaissance, command and control, and honing its air delivery skills for nuclear weapons.

Air interdiction is the PAF's primary mission, but it has not ignored retaliatory strike missions, said Haris Khan of the Pakdef Military Consortium. The PAF has expanded modernization efforts to include "nuclear weapons delivery, support of ground operations, fleet protection/maritime strike, and search and rescue are secondary," he said.
The PAF believes the Indian Air Force will launch a massive assault on Pakistan's air defense and command-and-control hubs during the first wave of a war, said A.B. Mahapatra, director of the New Delhi-based Centre for Asian Strategic Studies - India.
The Indian Air Force's primary mission is to neutralize Pakistan's nuclear option, he said.
"Thus, PAF is enhancing its air combat profile to encounter such future challenges," Mahapatra said.
The PAF's interdiction efforts include new and refurbished Lockheed Martin F-16s, now on order, and JF-17 Thunder fighters, built by Pakistan with Chinese assistance, now being manufactured.
In June 2006, the PAF ordered 18 F-16 C/D Block 52M fighters along with an option to procure another 18. A midlife upgrade will augment its existing fleet of 40 F-16 A/B Block 15s, along with buying 20 more F-16 A/B models via the Excessive Defense Articles program.
The F-16s will not be outfitted with nuclear weapons, but question marks remain for the JF-17. Known as the Chengdu J-10 Vigorous Dragon, the JF-17 will replace about 450 aging Nanchang A-5C Fantans, Dassault Mirage III/Vs and Chengdu F-7P Skybolts in the air-to-air combat and ground-support roles.
"The replacement will not be matched by an exact number, but initial reports indicate between 250 and 300 aircraft will be purchased by PAF," Khan said.
Khan said the Pakistan Aeronautical Complex is conducting flight evaluations of prototype aircraft "fitted with the Chinese-built NRIET KLJ-10 radar" and "Chinese-designed SD-10/PL-12 active-homing medium-range air-to-air missile."
The first 50 JF-17s will be outfitted with Chinese avionics, radar and missiles. But under an agreement with France in February, newer JF-17s will be outfitted with MBDA Mica air-to-air missiles and Thales RC 400 multimission radars.
The Russian-built RD-93 turbofan engine outfitting the JF-17 will have to be replaced due to pressure from India on Russia. Khan said the Chinese-built WS-13 Taishan engine is the most likely replacement.
There are unconfirmed reports, Khan said, that the PAF has ordered four aerial refueling tankers, possibly the Ukrainian-built Il-76.

Tentative UAV Plans

PAF also is improving its surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities.
"Pakistan uses UAVs for surveillance and is keen to augment the reconnaissance capabilities to a new height," with plans to procure up to 60 UAVs by 2010, Mahapatra said.
The Army has ordered the Luna short-range UAV from Germany and the Italian-built Galileo Falco UAV.
"An agreement was also signed in July of 2006 between the PAF and Turkey to jointly manufacture a UAV, which will meet the requirements of both air forces. The PAF UAV program is still in its adolescent stage, but they acknowledge the significance of the program for its future war plans," Khan said.
In April, the first of five Saab 2000 turboprop aircraft equipped with the Saab-Ericsson Erieye Airborne Early Warning & Command (AEW&C) system was rolled out during a ceremony in Sweden. Delivery to Pakistan is expected in mid-2009. Khan said there are discussions with China to co-develop an AEW&C aircraft designated as ZDK03 modeled on the Shaanxi Y-8F-400.
"PAF has mapped a very detailed and comprehensive plan for an early warning system to cover Pakistan's airspace with both airborne platforms and a ground-based radar network," he said.
Pakistan will integrate this plan with ground-based radar, including the U.S.-supplied AN/TPS-77 and Chinese-supplied JYL-1, JL3D-90A and JY-11 D air surveillance radars.
Khan points to other efforts, including a 2006 test of the Czech Vera passive radar system and an order for a number of MBDA Aspide/Spada 2000 low- to medium-altitude air defense batteries.
"These missiles are supposed to replace Thales Defence Systems Crotale. PAF is actively looking to purchase a high-altitude missile air defense system," with the Chinese-built FT-2000 as the front-runner, Khan said.
In the 1965 and 1971 wars with India, Pakistan successfully attacked ground targets, including high-value targets, within 200 miles of Pakistan's border.
Khan said in any future conflict with India, "I believe PAF will employ similar tactics," but with more intensity on high-value targets.
"PAF would, in the first instance, be tasked with countering India's planned advance into Pakistani territory by seeking to prevent the Indian Air Force from achieving local tactical air superiority," he said. "At the same time, it would be required to strike surface-to-surface missile launchers, if these can be identified. It would also be called upon to provide air cover for the strike corps in their limited advance to occupy Indian territory."

USAF Tanker Award Set for 5:10 p.m. ET

U.S. Deputy Defense Secretary William Lynn, Pentagon procurement czar Ashton Carter, Air Force Secretary Michael Donley and Air Force Chief Gen. Norton Schwartz are to announce the winner of the U.S. Air Force's long-running KC-X tanker contract at 5:10 p.m.

EADS's Airbus A330, top, and Boeing's 767, below, are competing for the $35 billion U.S. Air Force KC-X contract. (EADS, Boeing)

flash goes hereEADS's Airbus A330 and Boeing's 767 are in an epic dogfight to supply the Air Force with 179 tankers for a total value that could amount to $35 billion.